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An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #9 Minh Nguyen, Xiaoming Wang and Dong Chen

Transcript of An investigation of extreme heatwave events and …...2016/03/09  · An investigation of extreme...

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An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #9

Minh Nguyen, Xiaoming Wang and Dong Chen

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National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Title: An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure / Minh Nguyen ... [et al.].

ISBN: 978-0-643-10633-8 (pdf)

Series: CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship working paper series; 9.

Other Authors/ Contributors:

Xiaoming, Wang.

Dong Chen.

Climate Adaptation Flagship.

Enquiries Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to:

Dr Xiaoming Wang Urban System Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems PO Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia [email protected]

Dr Minh Nguyen

Urban Water System Engineering Program, CSIRO Land & Water PO Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia [email protected]

Enquiries about the Climate Adaptation Flagship or the Working Paper series should be addressed to:

Working Paper Coordinator CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship [email protected]

Citation This document can be cited as:

Nguyen M., Wang X. and Chen D. (2011). An investigation of extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working paper No. 9. http://www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers.html

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The Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper series The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship has been created to address the urgent national challenge of enabling Australia to adapt more effectively to the impacts of climate change and variability.

This working paper series aims to:

• provide a quick and simple avenue to disseminate high-quality original research, based on work in progress

• generate discussion by distributing work for comment prior to formal publication.

The series is open to researchers working with the Climate Adaptation Flagship on any topic relevant to the Flagship’s goals and scope.

Copies of Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Papers can be downloaded at: www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers

CSIRO initiated the National Research Flagships to provide science-based solutions in response to Australia’s major research challenges and opportunities. The ten Flagships form multidisciplinary teams with industry and the research community to deliver impact and benefits for Australia.

Copyright and Disclaimer © 2010 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.

Important Disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 1

1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Extreme heatwave events – hot days and hot spells ................................................ 2 1.2 Data descriptions ...................................................................................................... 4

2. EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA .................................. 6 2.1 Hot days .................................................................................................................... 6

2.1.1 Data processing for number of hot days in each year .......................................... 6 2.1.2 Probabilistic modelling .......................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Average recurrence interval .................................................................................. 7

2.2 Hot spells ................................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Data processing and modelling .......................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Probabilistic modelling ........................................................................................ 11 2.2.3 Average recurrence interval ................................................................................ 13

3. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ............................................................................................................ 17 3.1 Observed changes in Melbourne ............................................................................ 17

3.1.1 Changes in the yearly number of hot days ......................................................... 17 3.1.2 Changes in the yearly number of hot spells ........................................................ 18

3.2 Analysis for stations with long records .................................................................... 20

4. EFFECTS OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS .............................................. 23 4.1 Effects of hot spells on cooling energy requirement ............................................... 23 4.2 A scenario analysis using the Melbourne heatwave event in January – February

2009 ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.3 A sensitivity check of the effects of insulation on building thermal performance .... 28 4.4 Some other effects of extreme heatwave events ................................................... 31

4.4.1 Electric power losses in transmission and distribution networks due to temperature increases ........................................................................................ 31

4.4.2 Mechanical thermal stress and buckling in steel structures................................ 32

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................... 38

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 39

Appendix A – Probabilistic model parameters for yearly number of hot days .... 41

Appendix B – Probabilistic model parameters for yearly Total number of hot spells ................................................................................................................ 50

Appendix C – Probabilistic model Fitting and Return Period for yearly Total number of hot spells in South East QueenSland .......................................... 67

Appendix D – Contour Frequency Maps of the yearly number of hot Days ......... 85

Appendix E – Contour Frequency Maps of the yearly Total number of hot Spells .......................................................................................................................... 89

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E.1 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C ................................................ 90 E.2 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C .............................................. 92 E.3 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C ................................................ 94 E.4 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C .............................................. 96

Appendix F – Observed Changes in Number of Extreme Heatwave events at Major Cities ...................................................................................................... 98 F.1 Hobart (Ellerslie Rd) Station .................................................................................... 98 F.2 Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station ......................................................................... 100 F.3 Brisbane Regional Office Station .......................................................................... 102 F.4 Adelaide (West Terrace) Station ........................................................................... 104 F.5 Perth Regional Office Station ................................................................................ 106

Appendix G – Observed Changing Trends in Number of Extreme Heatwave events at Locations with Long Record of More Than 90 Years ................. 108

Appendix H – House 1 Base: Plan and Construction Details .............................. 112

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List of Figures Figure 1.1: Illustration of hot days and hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C ............................................. 3

Figure 1.2: Illustration of hot days and hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C ............................................. 3

Figure 1.3: Temperature record length versus number of stations ............................................... 4

Figure 1.4: Location of 548 BOM stations having record period more than 30 years ................... 5

Figure 2.1: Number of hot days with Tmax ≥ 30°C counted every year at Melbourne Regional Station .................................................................................................................................... 6

Figure 2.2: CDF of yearly number of hot days - Melbourne Regional Office Station..................... 7

Figure 2.3: Return period of yearly number of hot days with different maximum temperature thresholds ............................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 2.4: Contour maps of the frequency of number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods .......................................................... 9

Figure 2.5: Yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with threshold temperature of 35°C at Melbourne Regional Station ........................................................... 10

Figure 2.6: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station .......................................................................... 11

Figure 2.7: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station .......................................................................... 12

Figure 2.8: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station .......................................................................... 12

Figure 2.9: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station ...................................................................................... 13

Figure 2.10: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station ...................................................................................... 13

Figure 2.11: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station ...................................................................................... 14

Figure 2.12: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods ................... 15

Figure 2.13: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods ................... 16

Figure 3.1: Changing trends observed in the yearly number of hot days - Melbourne Regional Office station ........................................................................................................................ 17

Figure 3.2: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office station ......................................................... 19

Figure 3.3: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office station ......................................................... 19

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Figure 3.4: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office station ......................................................... 20

Figure 4.1: Temperature profiles for the hot spell scenarios used in this study .......................... 24

Figure 4.2: Scenario 1: Temperature record from 28 January to 5 February 2009 ..................... 27

Figure 4.3: Scenario 2: Assumed temperature record from 28 January to 5 February 2009 by separating the 3-day hot spell into 3 separate hot days ....................................................... 27

Figure 4.4: Electricity consumption of VIC from 19/01/09 to 15/02/09 ........................................ 28

Figure 4.5: Changes of temperature in Bedroom 1 with time at different R values ..................... 29

Figure 4.6: Changes of temperature in Kitchen-Family room with time at different R values ..... 30

Figure 4.7: Changes of daily maximum temperature in Bedroom 1 with R values on days hotter than 35°C.............................................................................................................................. 30

Figure 4.8: Changes of daily maximum temperature in Kitchen-Family room with R values on days hotter than 35°C ........................................................................................................... 30

Figure 4.9: Buckling of a railway track near Jolimont Station during the January 2009 heatwave in Melbourne (Source: Joe Armao / Fairfax Photos) ............................................................ 33

Figure 4.10: Distributions of thermal loads and critical loads estimated for Melbourne railways due to January 2009 heatwave in Melbourne ....................................................................... 35

Figure 4.11: Distributions of the number of failure cases in 1000 times repeating the Monte-Carlo simulation .................................................................................................................... 36

List of Tables Table 3.1: Changing trends in number of heatwave events in 46 long-record stations with

temperature threshold of 30°C ............................................................................................. 22

Table 4.1: Extreme heatwave event scenarios and results from AccuRate simulations ............. 25

Table 4.2: Comparison of cooling energy requirement for different hot spell scenarios ............. 25

Table 4.3: Comparison of AccuRate predicted cooling energy requirement ............................... 27

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents a preliminary study of extreme heatwave events using historical daily maximum temperature data. The study aims to establish an analysis framework for modelling extreme heatwave events and their effects on building and infrastructure performance.

• Using the historical data of daily maximum temperature recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology at 548 stations across Australia, conditional probabilistic modelling for two types of extreme heatwave events, hot days and hot spells, has been developed. The average recurrence intervals, also known as the return period, of the number of extreme heatwave events for a given threshold temperature were estimated and mapped for Australia. This would provide a basis for assessing vulnerability and identifying adaptation options for various aspects of buildings and infrastructure, such as building thermal performance and energy efficiency, occupants’ comfort, productivity and health, fire risk, utility and transport infrastructure serviceability and structural integrity.

• An analysis of the changes in the number of extreme heatwave events over time has been undertaken. It was found that over the last 150 years or so, Melbourne has experienced an increasing number of hot days with maximum temperature of more than 30°C per year, which is most likely due to the increasing number of hot spells that last 2 days or longer. The trend was also found to different extents in some other locations.

• A scenario analysis on the effect of consecutive hot days or a longer hot spell on building thermal performance and cooling energy requirement has been conducted by using CSIRO AccuRate software. It was found that the longer a hot spell was, the higher the cooling energy required for each day. For a typical single floor house with 3 bedrooms, the daily cooling energy requirement in a 4-day hot spell event was 32% more than the demand in a single 1-day hot spell. In other words, an n-day hot spell has more pronounced effects on building performance than n hot days occurring separately, basically due to the effects of thermal mass. It should also be noted that the longer hot spells have more significant impacts on occupants’ comfort and health.

• Case studies on building and infrastructure under an extreme heatwave are discussed, including a sensitivity check on the effects of insulation in the building envelope on indoor temperature; a consideration of energy loss in electricity transmission and distribution; and an assessment by Monte-Carlo simulation of the thermal load and buckling of railways during the heatwave in Melbourne in January 2009. The approaches are outlined and discussed to provide the basis for further detailed investigations.

In summary, ‘hot spells’ are shown to be a more appropriate parameter than the conventional ‘hot days’ for evaluating the impacts of heatwaves on building and infrastructure performance. Hot spells are defined in different durations, properly taking into account the time duration effect of extreme heatwave events. Hot spells also would be a more appropriate parameter to consider for the deterioration of occupants’ comfort and health in heatwave events.

In summary, the study provides essential components that can be linked to form a consistent analysis/simulation framework for further investigation of heatwave impacts on different types of physical infrastructure. It is envisaged that, in the next stage, research will focus on each type of infrastructure.

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INTRODUCTION

2 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Extreme heatwave events – hot days and hot spells

Among climatic parameters, temperature is the one that shows the highest likelihood to increase in the projected future climate scenarios (IPCC 2007a, CSIRO 2007). However, while the changes in the temperature have been the focuses in many studies, extreme heatwave events, which are characterised by prolonged high temperature durations, and especially their effects on building and infrastructures, have yet to be given due consideration. It is anticipated that not only the high temperature, but also the prolonged duration of a heatwave event, has its impacts on building and infrastructure performance. This will, in turn, has greater effects on indoor environment, occupants’ comfort, productivity, health, and safety.

This study presents an investigation of extreme heatwave events on the basis of historical temperature observations. The study aims at establishing an analysis framework to identify and model extreme heatwave events as well as their effects on the building and infrastructure performance. There are two ways to describe extreme heatwave events, i.e. hot days and hot spells. While the hot day has been widely used in a number of climate change studies (IPCC 2007b, CSIRO 2007, and Hennessy et al. 2008), the hot spell seems having attracted much less attentions. In fact, it would be a more proper parameter to be taken into the consideration of extreme heatwave impacts on buildings and infrastructure.

In this study, the two types of parameters to describe heatwave events are defined as follows:

• A hot day is a day which has the maximum temperature (Tmax) equal to or higher than a defined threshold temperature. The number of the hot days per year will be the parameter of interest.

• A hot spell is a group of consecutive days in which the maximum temperatures (Tmax) of all days are equal to or higher than a defined threshold temperature. The number of n-day hot spells per year will be the parameter of interest, where n = 1, 2, 3, … is the duration of a hot spell in day(s). Therefore, given a threshold temperature, one n-day hot spell comprises n hot days that occurred successively.

Examples of hot days and hot spells are illustrated in Figures 1.1 and 1.2, respectively, with Tmax ≥ 40°C and Tmax ≥ 35°C. The temperature was observed during the period of January and February 2009 in Melbourne, when the latest heatwave and ‘Black Saturday’ hit Victoria.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 3

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Figure 1.1: Hourly temperature between January and February 2009 showing four days with Tmax ≥ 40°C. The purple circles illustrate a 3-day hot spell and a 1-day hot spell with Tmax ≥ 40°C.

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Figure 1.2: Hourly temperature between January and February 2009 showing 8 days with Tmax ≥ 35°C. The purple circles illustrate a 4-day hot spell, a 2-day hot spell and two 1-day hot spell with Tmax ≥ 35°C.

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INTRODUCTION

4 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Threshold temperature is also important for building and infrastructure design. The selection of the threshold value may depend on the assessment scenarios to be considered. For example, the threshold temperature can be set at 30°C when considering the effects on building thermal performance and energy requirement for cooling; at 35°C when considering the effects on human comfort, health and safety; and at 40°C when considering fire hazard or utility failures. In this study, 4 thresholds, including 25°C, 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C, will be considered.

1.2 Data descriptions

Daily maximum temperatures, hereafter denoted as Tmax, recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM, 2009a) are used for the investigation. The data are available up to the end of April 2008 at total 1703 stations across Australia. The observation period of temperature, however, varies greatly among the stations, as plotted in Figure 1.3. To assure the statistical validity, 548 stations which have data record for more than 30-years were chosen for the analysis. A list of the stations is given in Appendix A. Their locations are depicted in Figure 1.4.

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Figure 1.3: Temperature record length versus number of stations

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 5

Figure 1.4: Location of 548 BOM stations having record period more than 30 years

There is an exception for the data at Melbourne Regional Office Station, which will be used frequently to illustrate the modelling and analysis in the main text of this report. The daily maximum temperature data has been updated to April 2009 to include the 3-day hot spell with Tmax > 40°C in January 2009 and the ‘Black Saturday’ 7 February 2009.

Hourly temperature data of January and February 2009 in Melbourne has been obtained from BOM to be used for climate data input to AccuRate in the parametric studies in Section 4.

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EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

6 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

2. EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

2.1 Hot days

This Section aims at evaluating the conditional probability of the yearly number of hot days given a daily maximum temperature threshold.

2.1.1 Data processing for number of hot days in each year

As defined, a hot day is a day which has the maximum temperature equal to or higher than a threshold temperature. It is therefore straightforward to count the number of hot days every year from the maximum temperature data record from each of the stations. As an example, Figure 2.1 shows the number of hot days with threshold temperature of 30°C from 153 years of data recorded at Melbourne Regional Office Station.

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Figure 2.1: Number of hot days with Tmax ≥ 30°C counted every year at Melbourne Regional Station

2.1.2 Probabilistic modelling

The yearly number of hot days is a random variable, found to be best fitted with the normal (Gaussian) distribution. The normal cumulative distribution function (CDF) is expressed by

( )2

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µσσ π −∞

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where µ and σ are the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution, n is the yearly number of hot days.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 7

Figure 2.2 shows some of results describing the probability model in terms of cumulative distribution function (CDF) based on the data from Melbourne Regional Station. The fitting were carried out by considering four different temperature thresholds. The CDFs are therefore the probability of yearly number of hot days exceeding a threshold temperature. The mean and the standard deviation of the fitted normal distributions for the 548 stations each was determined, given in Appendix A.

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Figure 2.2: CDF of yearly number of hot days - Melbourne Regional Office Station

2.1.3 Average recurrence interval

From the probabilistic models, the annual probability of exceedance Fev of a yearly number of hot days is calculated by

Fev (n) = 1 – CDF(n) (2.2)

It expresses the probability of the yearly number of hot days that exceeded n in one year.

The Average Recurrence Interval, also often called the Return Period (R), in years, can then be evaluated as the inverse of the annual probability of exceedance, i.e.

R(n) = 1 / Fev (n). (2.3)

Figure 2.3 gives the return period of the yearly number of hot days estimated for Melbourne Regional Station considering four temperature thresholds. Based on that, the frequency of a specific type of hot days occurring in one year within a specified period can be predicted for design purposes.

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8 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

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Figure 2.3: Return period of yearly number of hot days with different maximum temperature thresholds

Mapping of the frequency of hot days for different levels of return periods (10, 20, 50, 100 years) were developed using the results from 548 stations across Australia. Figure 2.4 shows the contour maps of the frequency of number of hot days with a maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C considering different return periods. More detailed maps are given in Appendix D. From these maps, it can be seen that the number of hot days is higher toward the north and the west of Australia, and lower toward the east and the south. The tendency is somewhat similar to that in the climate zone map of BCA 2007 (ABCB, 2007). Note that the BCA map was based on the climatic zone map of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM, 2009b), which was in principle based on average temperature and humidity. Further discussion on this matter is given in the next Section.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 9

Hot days with Tmax ≥ 35°C Hot days with Tmax ≥ 40°C

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Figure 2.4: Contour maps of the frequency of number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods

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10 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

2.2 Hot spells

This Section aims at evaluating the conditional probability of the yearly number of hot spells, depending on the daily maximum temperature threshold, and the number of hot days n that occur consecutively to form a hot spell.

2.2.1 Data processing and modelling

A hot spell comprises a group of consecutive days in which the maximum temperature of the days are continuously equal to or higher than a threshold temperature. Each hot spell is therefore termed as an n-day hot spell, where n = 1, 2, 3, … is the duration of a hot spell in day(s). There are 2 parameters of interest to be determined and used:

Number of n-day hot spells, i.e. the number of hot spells that last exactly n days. Hereafter called as ‘individual number of hot spells’.

Total number of hot spells that last n or more than n days. Hereafter referred as ‘total number of hot spells’. These total numbers can be calculated by summing up the above individual numbers of n-day hot spells correspondingly.

Based on the definition, an algorithm was developed to identify and count the events of hot spells occurring every year, and classify them according to their duration and the maximum temperature threshold. Figure 2.5 shows the number of 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day hot spells with threshold temperature of 35°C, based on the observations at Melbourne Regional Station in the last 30 years. The difference between the two parameters of interest can be found in the Figure 2.5, e.g. by considering the hot spell counts for year 2007. In 2007, there were four individual numbers of hot spells given Tmax≥35C, including nine 1-day hot spells, one 2-day hot spell, one 3-day hot spell, and one 3-day hot spell. The corresponding total number of the hot spells that last one or more than one days is 12; of the hot spells that last two or more than two days is 3; and so on (assumed that there is no hot spell longer than 4 days).

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Figure 2.5: Yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with threshold temperature of 35°C at Melbourne Regional Station

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 11

2.2.2 Probabilistic modelling

The occurrence of hot spells is a kind of random and independent events, or a stochastic process, which are assumed to follow a Poisson process. The yearly total numbers of hot spells data were found to be fitted very well with the Poisson distribution. The Poisson cumulative distribution function (CDF) is expressed by

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Figure 2.6, Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8 show the probability distribution of the yearly total number of hot spells in terms of CDF based on the observations at Melbourne Regional Station considering three different temperature thresholds, i.e. 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C, respectively. The CDF are the probability of yearly number of hot spells given a threshold temperature, and the duration of the hot spells. The model parameters λ are estimated and given in Appendix B for the 548 stations. The same modelling and fitting procedures were applied for the individual number of hot spells. The fittings for some other stations in South East QLD are presented in Appendix C.

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Figure 2.6: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

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EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

12 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Total Number of Hot Spells per Year

CD

FHot spells with Tmax >= 35 C

>=1-day hotspell - fit>=2-day hotspell - fit>=3-day hotspell - fit>=4-day hotspell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

Figure 2.7: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Total Number of Hot Spells per Year

CD

F

Hot spells with Tmax >= 40 C

>=1-day hotspell - fit>=2-day hotspell - fit>=3-day hotspell - fit>=4-day hotspell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

Figure 2.8: Fitting the Poisson distribution to the yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

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EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 13

2.2.3 Average recurrence interval

From the probabilistic model, the annual probability of exceedance Fev of the total number of hot spells, and the Return Period (R) can be calculated in the same way as described in the previous Section by Eqs. (2.2) and (2.3).

Figure 2.9 to Figure 2.11 give the return period of the yearly total number of hot spells considering three different temperature thresholds on the basis of observations recorded at Melbourne Regional Office Station. From this plot, frequency of total number of a specific type of hot spells occurring in one year within a specified period can be predicted and may be used for design purposes.

101

102

103

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Return period (years)

Tota

l Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls p

er y

ear

Hot spells with Tmax >= 30 C

>=1-day hotspells>=2-day hotspells>=3-day hotspells>=4-day hotspells

Figure 2.9: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

101

102

103

104

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Return period (years)

Tota

l Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls p

er y

ear

Hot spells with Tmax >= 35 C

>=1-day hotspells>=2-day hotspells>=3-day hotspells>=4-day hotspells

Figure 2.10: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

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EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

14 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

101

102

103

104

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Return period (years)

Tota

l Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls p

er y

ear

Hot spells with Tmax >= 40 C

>=1-day hotspells>=2-day hotspells>=3-day hotspells>=4-day hotspells

Figure 2.11: Return period versus yearly total number of hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office Station

Maps of the frequency for different return periods, i.e. 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 years, were developed by using the results for 548 stations located across Australia. Figure 2.12 and Figure 2.13 show the maps that depicted the frequency of total number of hot spells with a temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C, respectively. More detailed maps are given in Appendix D. Compared to Figure 2.4 for hot day maps, the pattern of the hot spell maps appears to be different. The high number of hot spells is not as heavily concentrated toward the north and the west of Australia as the case of the number of hot days, but appears to spread further toward the south and east.

As mentioned in the previous Section, the pattern appearing in the hot day maps is somewhat similar to that in the climate zone map defined by BCA 2007 (ABCB, 2007). Note that, however, the BCA map was based on the climatic zone map of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM, 2009b), which was, in principle, based on average temperature and humidity. Therefore, for the design of building and infrastructure under extreme heatwave events, it would be useful to establish extreme temperature map(s).

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EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 15

≥1-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C ≥1-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C R

= 1

0 yr

s

R =

20

yrs

R =

50

yrs

R =

100

yrs

Figure 2.12: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods

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16 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

≥2-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C ≥2-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C

R =

10

yrs

R =

20

yrs

R =

50

yrs

R =

100

yrs

Figure 2.13: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C and 40°C at different return periods

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 17

3. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

From the investigation of the data, some notable changes of extreme heatwave events have been observed over time. The trends, which would have more or less effects on building and infrastructure performance, were first found from the observations at Melbourne Regional Office station. In the following, the trends in Melbourne are to be presented at first, followed by the assessment of all stations with a record period longer than 90 years. The trends in other major cities, including Hobart, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth are plotted in Appendix F.

3.1 Observed changes in Melbourne

3.1.1 Changes in the yearly number of hot days

The yearly average numbers of hot days were determined over every 30 years along the historical data with a moving step of 10 years (running average). Therefore with the 153 years of observation data at Melbourne Regional Office station, 13 data points can be obtained given a specified temperature threshold. Each data point represents the yearly average numbers of hot days estimated from its last 30 years. For example, the last point on the right is at year 2009, so that it is the yearly average numbers of hot days computed from 1980 to 2009.

Figure 3.1: Changes observed in the yearly number of hot days - Melbourne Regional Office station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yea

rly a

vera

ge n

umbe

r of h

ot d

ays

Year

Tmax>=25C

Tmax>=30C

Tmax>=35C

Tmax>=40C

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

18 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Figure 3.1 presents the changes in the yearly number of hot days evaluated given four different temperature thresholds by the use of observation at the Melbourne Regional Office station. It can be seen that whilst the numbers of hot days equal or more than 35°C and 40°C slightly decrease, the numbers of hot days equal or more than 25°C and 30°C has increased over the years. It is anticipated that the increases of the numbers of hot days equal or more than 25°C and 30°C would have certain effects on building indoor environment and human comfort, and would resulting in higher cooling energy demands over the time.

3.1.2 Changes in the yearly number of hot spells

A similar procedure used for the number of hot days was applied for the hot spells. The yearly average of an individual number of hot spells given a specified temperature threshold were determined over every 30 years along the historical data with a moving step of 10 years (running average). Observation for more than 153 years at Melbourne Regional Office station gives 13 data points. Each data point is the yearly average numbers of the hot spells computed from its last 30 years.

Figure 3.2 to Figure 3.4 present the changes in the yearly individual numbers of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells at the Melbourne Regional Office station, given different temperature thresholds.

It can be seen that with Tmax being equal or more than 30°C (Figure 3.2), the individual number of 1-day hot spells decreases, and the individual number of 2-day, 3-day and 4-day hot spells all increased over the years. Similar trends are also observed in Figure 3.3 for hot spells with Tmax≥35°C (except that the number of 4-day hot spells slightly decreases). These changes indicated an interesting phenomenon that there have been a growing number of 2-day, 3-day, and even 4-day hot spells. It implies that the hot spells have become longer over the last 150 years in Melbourne. If this trend would continue into the future, more adverse effects on buildings and occupants would be expected due to more prolonged high temperature events.

For Tmax being equal or more than 40°C (Figure 3.4), the individual numbers of hot spells, however, are all stable over the years. Note that there is limited data for this case as there was very few hot spell events with this high temperature threshold.

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 19

Figure 3.2: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C – Melbourne Regional Office station

Figure 3.3: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 35°C – Melbourne Regional Office station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 35 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 30 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

20 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Figure 3.4: Changes in the yearly individual number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax ≥ 40°C – Melbourne Regional Office station

3.2 Analysis for stations with long records

The trends of the historical temperature records at 46 other stations were investigated. These stations have a temperature record period of more than 90 years in order to obtain reliable trends. The same procedure as used in the previous section was applied to these stations. The yearly average of hot days and individual number of hot spells given a specified temperature threshold were determined over every 30 years along the historical data with a moving step of 10 years.

To provide a flavour of the changing trends, the results of the yearly average for each type of events (hot days or individual hot spells) were fitted with a linear line, and the trend was estimated as the slope of the linear fit, and then multiplied by 100. The trends are therefore expressed in terms of the average change in the number of events in 100 years. Table 3.1 presents the results for a temperature threshold of 30°C. Trends of less than 0.1 are considered insignificant, and therefore not given in the Table. Positive numbers (highlighted in yellow) mean increasing trend, and negative numbers (highlighted in light blue) mean decreasing trend.

The results in Table 3.1 show the change of the number of heatwave events, including hot days and hot spells with Tmax ≥ 30°C, which can be considered appropriate for studying the effect of heatwaves on building thermal performance and cooling energy requirement as presented in Sections 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3. The trends for other thresholds, i.e. 35°C and 40°C, are given in Appendix G. It can be seen that that there is no clear or consistent changing trend across over all stations.

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 40 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 21

Meanwhile, the number of hot days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Table 3.1) shows increasing trends at about half of the stations, and decreasing trends at the other half. Some extreme cases are noted here: Perth (WA) has an increasing trend of 20.68 days/100 years; Te Kowai (QLD) has a decreasing trend of –80.87 days/100 years. Similar observations were found for the 1-day and 3-day hot spells, i.e. the trend shows some increases at a half of the stations, and decreases at the other half. For 2-day hot spells, about two-third of the stations shows some increases. For 4-day hot spells, about a third of the stations show some increases.

Considering the trend at each station, there are a few stations showing consistent increases, i.e. increases in all numbers of hot days and hot spells, such as Inverell (NSW); and quite a few stations showing consistent decreases, such as Snowtown (SA), Burketown (QLD), Burdekin (QLD), Te Kowai (QLD), Bathust Gaol (NSW), Cape Otway (VIC), and Low Head (TAS). The phenomenon of increasing long-duration hot spells, as seen for Melbourne, can also be found with more or less extents at a number of stations, such as Cape Leuuwin (WA), Perth (WA), Wanderin (WA), Port Lincoln (WA), Dalby (QLD), Goondiwindi (QLD), Tibooburra (NSW), Inverell (NSW), and Rutheglen (VIC).

In summary, the analysis has revealed some interesting insights on how the heatwave events have occurred in various locations across Australia. Further insights can be obtained from more detailed analysis for individual stations of interest. Nevertheless, the following notes on the trends can be made:

• Number of heatwave events is increasing at a number of locations, not only in terms of the number of hot days, but also in the numbers of hot spells with duration of 2 days or more.

• The phenomenon of increasing long-duration hot spells, as observed in Melbourne, was also found at a number of stations with different extents.

These trends, particularly those related to long-duration hot spells are expected to have considerable effects on city/urban physical assets, including building, infrastructure, and people. Some of the effects are outlined in Section 4.

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

22 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Table 3.1: Changing trends in number of heatwave events in 46 long-record stations with temperature threshold of 30°C

ID a

nd L

ocat

ion

Aver

age

chan

ge in

num

ber o

f eve

nts

in 1

00 y

ears

Tmax

>=

30C

Stat

ion

No

Stat

ion

Nam

eSt

ate

Lat-

itude

Long

-itu

deN

o.of

yr

s

BC

A

Clim

ate

Zone

Hot

day

1-da

y ho

tspe

ll2-

day

hots

pell

3-da

y ho

tspe

ll4-

day

hots

pell

5-da

y ho

tspe

ll6-

day

hots

pell

7-da

y ho

tspe

ll8-

day

hots

pell

9-da

y ho

tspe

ll10

-day

ho

tspe

ll

4020

MAR

BLE

BAR

CO

MPA

RIS

ON

WA

-21.

1811

9.75

105

1-1

7.72

0.63

1.03

-0.1

20.

400.

49

0.

12-0

.28

-0.1

990

34PE

RTH

REG

ION

AL O

FFIC

E

W

A -3

1.96

115.

8795

520

.68

-0.8

0-0

.23

0.63

0.20

0.37

0.43

0.93

-0.2

10.

480.

1195

00AL

BAN

Y

WA

-35.

0311

7.88

101

6-9

.98

-7.1

7-1

.40

9510

BRID

GET

OW

N C

OM

PAR

ISO

N

WA

-33.

9611

6.14

101

5-7

.91

-1.2

5

-1.2

7-0

.98

0.66

0.12

0.24

-0.2

1

95

18C

APE

LEEU

WIN

WA

-34.

3711

5.14

101

51.

12-0

.59

0.54

0.

11

95

34D

ON

NYB

RO

OK

WA

-33.

5711

5.82

101

57.

23-1

.27

0.66

-0.6

1

0.32

0.42

0.15

0.29

0.17

-0.1

495

81M

OU

NT

BAR

KER

WA

-34.

6311

7.64

101

6-1

1.28

-5.0

3-2

.44

-0.6

1

0.

10

10

073

KELL

ERBE

RR

IN

W

A -3

1.62

117.

7298

4-2

1.04

1.02

-0.3

7-1

.46

0.36

-1.2

0-0

.30

0.12

-0.2

7-0

.38

-0.6

010

111

NO

RTH

AM

WA

-31.

6511

6.66

101

5-3

.67

1.34

-0.7

10.

16

-0.8

3-0

.16

-0.4

9

0.44

10

579

KATA

NN

ING

CO

MPA

RIS

ON

WA

-33.

6911

7.56

101

41.

440.

950.

65-0

.62

-0.4

00.

280.

23

0.15

-0.1

7

1061

4N

ARR

OG

IN

WA

-32.

9311

7.18

954

-2.2

92.

390.

89-0

.58

-0.7

10.

39

0.

14-0

.26

0.13

1064

8W

AND

ERIN

G C

OM

PAR

ISO

N

W

A -3

2.68

116.

6810

24

10.8

7-0

.58

1.10

0.13

-0.3

3-0

.16

0.

370.

37-0

.23

12

074

SOU

THER

N C

RO

SS

WA

-31.

2311

9.33

100

4-1

8.31

0.11

0.23

-1.1

6-0

.29

-0.2

4

-0

.21

-0

.34

1807

0PO

RT

LIN

CO

LN

SA

-3

4.72

135.

8611

05

0.71

-1.5

01.

350.

61-0

.35

-0.2

0

2104

6SN

OW

TOW

N

SA

-33.

7813

8.21

935

-6.8

7-1

.42

-1.7

0-0

.33

-1.0

40.

650.

420.

26

-0.6

20.

2423

000

ADEL

AID

E W

EST

TER

RAC

E

SA

-3

4.93

138.

5992

5-1

6.68

-2.9

50.

65-0

.12

-0.6

0-0

.73

-0.2

0-0

.33

-0

.21

-0.2

626

026

RO

BE C

OM

PAR

ISO

N

SA

-37.

1613

9.76

124

60.

110.

610.

17

-0.1

7

29

004

BUR

KETO

WN

PO

ST O

FFIC

E

QLD

-17.

7413

9.55

118

1-4

5.22

-2.6

7-1

.11

-0.4

6-0

.43

-0.4

7-0

.23

-0.3

3

-0.2

7

3001

8G

EOR

GET

OW

N P

OST

OFF

ICE

QLD

-18.

2914

3.55

113

122

.44

-0.4

70.

16-0

.17

0.

23-0

.43

-0.3

9

3004

5R

ICH

MO

ND

PO

ST O

FFIC

E

QLD

-20.

7314

3.14

115

30.

820.

150.

21-0

.39

0.

490.

16-0

.30

-0.2

2-0

.38

-0.2

133

001

BUR

DEK

IN S

HIR

E C

OU

NC

IL

Q

LD-1

9.58

147.

4194

1-2

9.46

-4.1

8-2

.11

-1.2

4-0

.76

-0.5

0-0

.23

-0.2

1-0

.29

-0.1

9

3304

7TE

KO

WAI

EX

P ST

N

Q

LD-2

1.16

149.

1210

02

-80.

87-0

.27

-0.4

5-0

.58

-0.2

8-0

.99

0.26

-0.4

1

3400

2C

HAR

TER

S TO

WER

S PO

ST O

FFIC

E

Q

LD-2

0.08

146.

2699

3-5

.40

0.52

1.82

-0.3

2-0

.94

-0.6

80.

290.

45

-0.1

2

3502

7EM

ERAL

D P

OST

OFF

ICE

Q

LD-2

3.53

148.

1610

32

1.75

0.33

0.32

-0.7

7-0

.52

0.40

0.

230.

15-0

.17

38

003

BOU

LIA

AIR

POR

T

QLD

-22.

9113

9.90

120

39.

550.

22-0

.33

0.22

-0

.16

-0.3

2

-0.1

9-0

.16

0.41

3901

5BU

ND

ABER

G P

OST

OFF

ICE

QLD

-24.

8715

2.35

982

-5.4

3

-0.3

00.

330.

630.

69-0

.60

0.57

-0.6

80.

37

3903

9G

AYN

DAH

PO

ST O

FFIC

E

QLD

-25.

6315

1.61

115

33.

95

-1.1

7

-0.4

10.

40-0

.17

0.

29

40

214

BR

ISB

ANE

REG

ION

AL O

FFIC

E

Q

LD-2

7.48

153.

0399

2-2

8.46

2.56

0.99

-0.8

5-1

.51

-0.3

1-0

.68

-0.4

0-0

.46

-0

.35

4026

4TE

WAN

TIN

PO

ST O

FFIC

E

QLD

-26.

3915

3.04

101

23.

144.

322.

130.

52-0

.25

0.20

-0

.11

-0.4

0

41

023

DAL

BY P

OST

OFF

ICE

QLD

-27.

1815

1.26

993

-13.

31-0

.74

0.55

0.64

0.18

0.29

-0.3

30.

600.

140.

13

4103

8G

OO

ND

IWIN

DI P

OST

OFF

ICE

Q

LD-2

8.55

150.

3110

03

-4.7

80.

470.

34

-0

.21

0.21

-0.2

7

0.18

0.36

4603

7TI

BOO

BUR

RA

POST

OFF

ICE

N

SW-2

9.43

142.

0198

422

.98

-0.4

31.

141.

11-0

.14

-0.1

80.

29

0.12

0.49

48

013

BOU

RKE

PO

ST O

FFIC

E

NSW

-30.

0914

5.94

125

4-2

5.61

-0.1

40.

400.

35-0

.49

0.

160.

68-0

.17

-0.1

3-0

.10

5202

6W

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 23

4. EFFECTS OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

4.1 Effects of hot spells on cooling energy requirement

This section investigates the effect of long-duration hot spells on the cooling energy requirement of a typical house by using AccuRate (CSIRO, 2010), an accredited house energy rating software developed in Australia. AccuRate was designed for assessing building thermal performance. It calculates the energy requirement for heating and cooling and gives a star rating for a house design in a specific climate. In this study, the commercial version of the software, AccuRate Ver.1.1.4.1 was used to estimate the effects of extreme heatwave events on the cooling energy requirement.

The ‘Example 1-storey house’, which is available as one of the example houses implemented in AccuRate was used for this investigation. This house is a typical detached medium size one-storey 3-bedroom brick veneer house.

AccuRate uses typical meteorological year (TMY) weather data which contains one year of hourly data of a number of parameters, including temperature, absolute air moisture content, air pressure, wind speed and direction, solar radiation (global, diffuse, and direct normal), and cloud cover. The current TMY weather data file in AccuRate database for Melbourne was established from months of different years in the beginning of the 70’s. For example, data of January was based on January 1971; data of February was based on February 1972; data of March was based on March 1970; etc.

To study the cooling energy requirement for a number of scenarios during extreme heatwave events, the following 2 days are picked up from the weather file: (1) the hottest day, date-stamped as the 8 Jan, with Tmax of 38.1°C; and (2) a ‘pleasant’ day, date-stamped as the 5 Jan, with Tmax of 23.5°C. The weather data of the two days are used to make up different scenarios for 14 day period, where the hottest day is used to make up hot spells, and the pleasant day is used for the other remaining days. The ambient air temperature profiles for the scenarios studied are shown in Figure 4.1, including:

• Four 1-day hot spells, abbreviated ‘4x1hp’. Each hot spell is made up by one hottest day. The 4 hot spells are separated from each other by 2 pleasant days.

• Two 2-day hot spells, abbreviated ‘2x2hp’. Each hot spell is made up by two consecutive hottest days. The hot spells are separated from each other by 4 pleasant days.

• One 3-day hot spell, abbreviated ‘1x3hp’. The hot spell is made up by three consecutive hottest days.

• One 4-day hot spell, abbreviated ‘1x4hp’. The hot spell is made up by four consecutive hottest days.

• No hot spell, abbreviated ‘0x0hp’. This scenario is for evaluating the cooling energy requirement due to other heat loads such as solar gain and other internal heat loads (human body, cooking activities, and appliances).

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24 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

In order to easily demonstrate the impact of the designed hot spell scenarios, for the days other than these 14 days, all the weather parameters are assigned with constant values, i.e, dry-bulb ambient air temperature = 24°C; absolute air moisture content = 6.0g/kg; air pressure = 1000 kPA, wind speed = 5 m/s, wind direction =0 (North), cloud cover = 1 oktas, and all solar radiation values have been set to zero. These constant weather conditions are obviously unrealistic and were designed to maintain a comfortable environment in the house, so that neither heating nor cooling due to external weather influences would be needed.

15

20

25

30

35

40

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

1x4hp

15

20

25

30

35

40

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

1x3hp

15

20

25

30

35

40

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

4x1hp

15

20

25

30

35

40

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

2x2hp

Figure 4.1: Temperature profiles for the hot spell scenarios used in this study

The corresponding weather data file for each hot spell scenario was established accordingly and AccuRate simulations were carried out. Table 4.1 presents the results of cooling energy requirement for each hot spell scenarios. Columns 1 to 3 are the scenario information, and column 4 shows the total cooling energy requirement for maintaining proper occupants’ thermal comfort, which is defined in the Accurate. Column 5 presents the total extra cooling energy requirement due to hot spells after subtracting the total cooling energy requirement for the ‘0x0hp’ scenario, i.e. 4.5 MJ. The averagTwo separatee daily cooling energy requirement due to hot spells in column 6 is then obtained by dividing the values in column 5 with the number of hot days in column 2.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 25

Table 4.2 compares average daily cooling energy requirements for different hot spell scenarios. It was found that compared to that of a 1-day hot spell, the average daily cooling energy requirement increases by 19% for a 2-day hot spell; by 27% for a 3-day hot spell; and 32% for a 4-day hot spell. This is clearly due to the building thermal mass effect. For a hot spell with consecutive 2 or more days, the building envelope has already been heated in a previous hot day and thus requires more energy to cool the building during the next hot day(s). Therefore, the longer a hot spell is, the higher the average daily cooling energy requirements.

For the same reason, the maximum indoor air temperature is higher with longer hot spells for free-floating operation (i.e. no cooling). As shown in column 4 of Table 4.2, it is seen that the maximum indoor air temperature increases with the length of the hot spells.

Table 4.1: Extreme heatwave event scenarios and results from AccuRate simulations

Scenario No. of

hot days

No. of hot

spells

Total cooling energy

computed by AccuRate (MJ)

Total cooling energy due to hot spells (MJ)

Average daily cooling energy

due to hot spells (MJ)

0x0hp 0 0 4.5 0.0 - 4x1hp 4 4 16.9 12.4 3.1 2x2hp 4 2 19.3 14.8 3.7 1x3hp 3 1 16.3 11.8 3.9 1x4hp 4 1 20.8 16.3 4.1

Table 4.2: Comparison of cooling energy requirement for different hot spell scenarios

Hot spell Average daily cooling

energy due to hot spells (MJ)

Increase from average daily cooling energy for 1-day hot spell

Max indoor temperature w/o air conditioning

1-day 3.1 0.0% 34.2°C 2-day 3.7 19% 36.5°C 3-day 3.9 27% 37.0°C 4-day 4.1 32% 37.0°C

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26 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

4.2 A scenario analysis using the Melbourne heatwave event in January – February 2009

This section investigates the effect of long-duration hot spells on the cooling energy requirement of a typical house using real Melbourne temperature data for 9 days from 28 January to 5 February 2009, which includes the 3-day hot spell of more than 40°C that occurred one week before the Black Saturday. The dry-bulb air temperatures, obtained from BOM, are shown in Figure 4.2.

Two scenarios of temperature are designed to assess the cooling energy required during these 9 days:

• The first scenario uses the real air temperature record as shown in Figure 4.2, which includes 3 hot days of more than 40°C occurring consecutively to make a 3-day hot spell.

• The second scenario uses an assumed air temperature profile, where the 3-day hot spell is separated into 3 hot days, which occur separately from each other by 2 other days in the record, as shown in Figure 4.3.

Because the data of other weather parameters during these 9 days were not available from the BOM at the time of this analysis, the parameters, including air moisture, air pressure, wind, solar radiation and cloud cover were assumed to be the same as those of the ‘hottest’ day defined in the previous Section. In this way, the analysis result can be considered to be valid for the effect of air temperature, which is effective enough for the purpose of this study. The analysis can be refined when all relevant data are available.

Additionally, as discussed in the previous Section, the weather parameters are assigned with constant values for the remaining days of the year to maintain a comfortable indoor environment, so that neither heating nor cooling would be needed.

The AccuRate simulation results are shown in Table 4.3. The extra total cooling energy requirement due to a hot spell is adjusted by taking away 4.5 MJ, which is the cooling energy required without the hot spell (as discussed in the previous Section). It is shown that if the 3 hot days occurred separately, the cooling energy require would reduce by 8.5%. This again can be explained as the effect of thermal mass. During a hot day in the 3-day hot spell, the building materials absorb heat, which results in higher cooling energy requirement during the next hot day(s). On the contrary, in the case where the 3 hot days occur separately, the building envelope has time to cool down, and thus resulting in lower daily cooling energy requirement.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 27

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

28 Jan to 5 Feb 2009

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C) 3-day hot spell - Jan 09

1 2 3

Figure 4.2: Scenario 1: Temperature record from 28 January to 5 February 2009

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

28 Jan to 5 Feb 2009

Out

door

Tem

pera

ture

(C) 3 separate hot days

1 2 3

Figure 4.3: Scenario 2: Assumed temperature record from 28 January to 5 February 2009 by separating the 3-day hot spell into 3 separate hot days

Table 4.3: Comparison of AccuRate predicted cooling energy requirement

Scenario

Total cooling energy

predicted by AccuRate (MJ)

Total cooling energy

requirement due to hot spell* (MJ)

Percentage change of total cooling energy

requirement due to hot spell

Scenario 1: One 3-day hot spell 23.1 18.6 - Scenario 2: 3-separate hot days 21.5 17.0 – 8.6%

The results here and also from the previous section have demonstrated that the effect of an n-day hot spell on building thermal performance is more pronounced than the effect of n hot days occurring separately. Through the investigation, it is also found that the extent of the difference in the effect also depends on the relative differences between the weather of the hot days and the other normal days and the insulation of the building envelope. A sensitivity check of insulation on building thermal performance is made in the next Section.

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28 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Therefore, when considering the effects of heatwave events on building thermal performance, the duration of a heatwave event is also important. The hot spell therefore is the appropriate parameter to be used for evaluating the effects.

This result is in line with and may be used to partly explain an observation in the energy consumptions of VIC from 19 January to 15 February 2009 shown in Figure 4.4 (Grozev, 2009). The peak energy consumptions of a day during the 3-day hot spell (28 – 30 Jan) is about 10,400 MW, whilst the peak consumption of the Black Saturday (7 Feb), which occurred as an isolated 1-day hot spell, is 15% lower at about 9,000 MW.

Black Saturday 7 Feb 2009

3-day hot spell of more than 40°C

Figure 4.4: Electricity consumption of VIC from 19/01/09 to 15/02/09

4.3 A sensitivity check of the effects of insulation on building thermal performance

In this section, the effect of insulation on building thermal performance is investigated by using the commercial version of AccuRate, version 1.1.4.1. The ‘House 1 base design’, which was used for NatHERS software accreditation, is used for this investigation. This house is a medium size detached one-storey 4-bedroom house with a steel roof and steel wall cladding. The house plan and construction details are given in Appendix H.

It was assume that the house was on free-floating operation (with no cooling), and experienced the real temperature condition during January and February 2009. To see the effect of insulation, different thermal resistance R values of the insulation (R = 0.14, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0 m2.K/W) are assigned to the external walls and ceiling, and the results of temperature in the Bedroom 1 and the Kitchen-family room of the house are obtained for each case.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 29

Figures Figure 4.5 and Figure 4.6 respectively show the Bedroom 1 and the Kitchen-family room temperature with different R-values of the wall and ceiling insulation for the period from 16 January to 10 February 2009. The results show that the change of the insulation R-value clearly affects the indoor air temperature, but to different extents depending on the outdoor temperature. Figure 4.7 and Figure 4.8 respectively shows the sensitivity of the maximum temperature in Bedroom 1 and the Kitchen-family room to the insulation R-values at 7 days with the maximum outdoor temperature above 35°C. It can be seen that an increase in insulation R-value is more efficient in reducing indoor air temperature for R-value less than 2.0. When R-value is more than 2.0, its effect on reducing indoor temperature is decreased. It should be noted that R=2.0 is the required insulation for houses in Melbourne specified in Building Code of Australia (ABCB, 2007).

5

10

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25

30

35

40

45

50

16 Jan to 10 Feb 2009

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

OutdoorR0.14R1.0R1.5R2.0R2.5R3.0R3.5R4.0

Figure 4.5: Changes of temperature in Bedroom 1 with time at different R values

5

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45

50

16 Jan to 10 Feb 2009

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

OutdoorR0.14R1.0R1.5R2.0R2.5R3.0R3.5R4.0

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30 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Figure 4.6: Changes of temperature in Kitchen-Family room with time at different R values

25

30

35

40

45

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4Insulationthermal resistance R value (m2.K/W)

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Jan 19 Jan 20

Jan 27 Jan 28

Jan 29 Jan 30

Feb 07

Figure 4.7: Changes of daily maximum temperature in Bedroom 1 with R values on days hotter than 35°C

20

25

30

35

40

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4Insulation thermal resistance R value (m2.K/W)

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Jan 19 Jan 20

Jan 27 Jan 28

Jan 29 Jan 30

Feb 07

Figure 4.8: Changes of daily maximum temperature in Kitchen-Family room with R values on days hotter than 35°C

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 31

4.4 Some other effects of extreme heatwave events

This Section outlines the effects of extreme heatwave events on power utilities and transport. Further detailed analysis can be made once more relevant data become available.

4.4.1 Electric power losses in transmission and distribution networks due to temperature increases

Transmission networks transport electricity over long distance from generators to distribution networks, and then to retailers. In the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), the total length of the transmission networks is 42,000 km, and the total length of the distribution networks is 700,000 km (AER, 2007).

To minimise the loss of electricity energy, electricity is first converted to high voltage for efficient transmission along a network. In the distribution networks, however, the voltage has to be lower due to safety and usage issues. The electricity energy loss occurs in the transformers and the transmission and distribution lines. It was reported (CCTP, 2005) that the total loss of electricity energy per year was about 7.2% in the US (1995); about 7.4% in the UK (1998) and about 5.7% in Japan (2004). About 60% of the losses are from lines, and 40% are from transformers, most of which are in the distribution networks.

In principle, the power energy loss Ploss (Watt) can be evaluated by

Ploss = I2 R (4.1)

where I is the current in Ampere, R is the resistance in Ohm. Given the power loss depends on the square of current, it is important to keep the current as low as possible to minimise the loss. For a given power, the voltage therefore is transformed to a higher level to lower the current, and therefore reduce the energy loss in a long transmission line.

Ambient temperature affects the power energy loss. When the temperature increases, it is expected that the power losses would increase due to the following two reasons:

• A temperature increase will make the electricity resistance of the conductors increase. The increase of the resistance ∆R (Ohm) with temperature change ∆T (°C) is expressed by the following relationship

∆R / R = α ∆T (4.2)

where α is the temperature coefficient of resistance, which depends on the conductor material. For a conductor material like copper, α = 4.0 x 10-3 / °C. From this value, it can be estimated that the resistance and thus the power loss will increase 0.4% as the temperature increases 1°C.

• A temperature increase will make the electricity demand/load increase due to the increased use of air-conditioning. This will result in higher current in the networks, provided the power does not exceed the capacity of the conductor. As the power loss depends on the

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32 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

square of current, this loss will increase significantly. For example, when the energy demand increases by 20%, the energy loss will increase by 44%. During the 3-day hot spell in January 2009, the peak power demand in Vic jumped by about 2000MW (Figure 4.4), i.e. about 24% above the average maximum values for Jan/Feb. The electrical loss then would increase by 53%.

According to most climate change projections (IPCC (2007a), CSIRO (2007)), temperature is the climate parameter that certainly increases. The changes are not only in higher temperature values, but also in longer duration of hot spells as observed in Section 3 at some locations. Therefore, it is expected that with higher temperature coupled with longer duration of hot spells, significant power energy loss would be resulted, presenting significant waste of natural resource. Further detailed investigation on the issue and its adaptation options therefore is recommended using relevant data available from the electric power industry.

4.4.2 Mechanical thermal stress and buckling in steel structures

A high temperature for a long duration of an extreme heatwave event would cause a structural failure, as the structure may have not been designed for such an extreme condition. A typical example was the buckling of railways in Melbourne during the extreme heatwave event in January 2009 (Ham, 2009).

The buckling of the railways occurs as a result of the thermal stress in the rail exceeding a critical value. As temperature increases, thermal expansion occurs, mainly elongating the length of the rail. There may be a ‘thermal’ gap between two rails designed to accommodate the thermal expansion. However, when the temperature increases to a level high enough for the thermal expansion filling up the gap, or the rail is connected all together by welding, the rail is considered to be fully constrained at its ends, and a thermal compression load starts to build up along the rail. Buckling then can occur when the thermal load exceeds a critical load, which depends on the material, length, geometry, and configuration of the rail.

The thermal expansion δT (m) along a rail due to a temperature change ∆T (°C) can be estimated by

δT = α L ∆T (4.3)

where L is the length of the rail; and αis thermal expansion coefficient. For steel, α = 12x106 m/m°C.

The thermal load PT (N) in a rail that is fully restrained at both ends due to a temperature change ∆T (°C) can be computed by

PT = α ∆T EA (4.4)

where A (m2) is the rail cross-section area; E is the Young’s modulus of the rail material. For a steel rail, E = 200 GPa = 2 x 1011 N/m2

The critical load Pcrit (N) for a straight and axial loaded bar is defined by

Pcrit = π2 EI / (kL)2 (4.5)

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 33

where I (m4) is the second moment of the rail cross-section area about its weak axis, which is often the vertical axis; k is the effective length factor depending on the type of the constraint at the rail’s ends. For both ends fixed, k= 0.5; for both ends pinned, k=1.0; for one end fixed and one end free, k=2.0.

Using these formulas, the thermal compression load can be estimated for a rail in an extreme heat condition and checked against the defined critical load to see if buckling would occur. As an example, an estimation of failure probability is made here for the case of Melbourne railway buckling scenario near Jolimont station as in Figure 4.9, which occurred during the 3-day hot spell in January 2009.

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34 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

• The rail is continuous. There is no thermal gap between adjacent rails. The rails therefore has fixed along-the-length constrains at both ends. This is based on observations of the railway system, where the rails are connected to each other by welding.

• The rail material is steel. The Young’s modulus E= 2 x 1011 N/m2. The thermal expansion coefficient is α= 12 x 10-6 m/m°C.

Because there are many uncertainties involved, an estimate will be made by using Monte-Carlo simulation with assumed distributions for some parameters including the temperature change ∆T, the buckling length L, and the constraint factor k. The assumptions are as follows,

• For the temperature change, it is assumed and estimated that

o During the heatwave, at the time the maximum air temperature reached 43.6°C, it is assumed that the rail temperature reached 61°C to 66°C. This is based on a ‘rule of thumb’ approach, where the rail temperature was estimated to be 17°C higher than the air temperature or 1.5 times the air temperature (Yates and Mendis, 2009). The rail temperature is higher than the air temperature due to the high thermal conductivity and diffusivity of rail steel. It is therefore assumed that the rail temperature during the hot spell followed a normal distribution with a mean value of 63°C and a standard deviation of 1°C.

o At the time of construction, the rail is laid at the rail neutral temperature and restrained to prevent buckling. The neutral temperature is a temperature between expected hot and cold maximums of the region. It is generally selected at 75% of the expected maximum temperature of the region, or 22°C less than the maximum expected rail temperature (Yates and Mendis, 2009). For the Melbourne region, with an expected maximum temperature of 45°C, the neutral temperature is therefore in the range of 33°C to 43°C. It is therefore assumed that the rail neutral temperature followed a normal distribution with a mean value of 38°C and a standard deviation of 2°C.

o The temperature change ∆T is the difference between the rail temperature and the neutral temperature. As the rail temperature and neural temperature are normally distributed, the temperature change ∆T also follows a normal distribution with the mean value of (63°C -38°C) = 25°C and a standard deviation of (22+12)1/2 = 2.2°C.

• From Figure 4.9, it is it is assumed that

o The length of the buckling part is L = 2.5m. It is thus assumed that the buckling length L follows a normal distribution with a mean of 2.5m and a standard deviation of 0.4m.

o The failure mode of the rail suggests that the effective length factor k may vary from 0.5 to 1.0. It is thus assumed that effective length factor k follows a normal distribution with a mean of 0.8 and a standard deviation of 0.1.

A Monte Carlo simulation was undertaken for 1,000,000 runs. In each run, random values of ∆T, L, and k were picked up from their assumed distributions and used to compute the thermal

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 35

load and the critical load using Eqs. (4.4) and (4.5). The distributions of the thermal load and the critical load were then obtained from the simulation, as plotted in Figure 4.10. The thermal load followed a normal distribution with the mean of 0.39x106 N, and the standard deviation of 0.036x106 N. The critical load followed the type II extreme value distribution with the shape parameter k=0.16, the scale parameter σ=0.54x106 N, and the location parameter µ=1.43x106N.

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

x 106

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2x 10

-5

Load (N)

Den

sity

PLoad dataPcrit dataDistribution fit of PloadDistribution fit of Pcrit

Figure 4.10: Distributions of thermal loads and critical loads estimated for Melbourne railways due to January 2009 heatwave in Melbourne

In Figure 4.10, it can be seen that the thermal load distribution overlapped the critical load distribution, indicating a likelihood of buckling occurrence. The failure probability then can be estimated theoretically using the fitted distribution of the thermal load and critical load, or estimated numerically from the simulation by repeating the simulation for 1000 times. Among the 1,000,000 runs in each simulation, there were about 23 ‘failure’ cases where the thermal load exceeded the critical load, leading to the rail buckling. The number of failure cases ranged from 7 to 40, and following a binomial distribution with the mean of 22.77 and the variance of 22.25, as shown in Figure 4.11. This result is in line with the theory of a simulation-based reliability method described in Sundararajan (1995).

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EFFECTS OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS

36 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

No. of failure cases

Den

sity

Figure 4.11: Distributions of the number of failure cases in 1000 times repeating the Monte-Carlo simulation

It is therefore estimated that the failure probability of the rail buckling scenario similar to the one in Jolimont station in Figure 4.9 is about 2/100,000 on average during an extreme heatwave event like the one which occurs in January 2009 in Melbourne. The Melbourne railway network has a total length of about 272km, which can be divided into more than 100,000 sections of L=2.5m rail. Then on average, it was anticipated that 2 out of the 100,000 sections had buckled like the one in Figure 4.9.

In reality, the railways have been buckled in such a specific scenario at a couple of places in Melbourne. The buckling also occurred at different buckling modes and extents as shown in Adelaide Now (2009) for South Australia. Note that for simplicity and due to limited data available, some assumptions have been made in the above estimation:

• Effects of solar radiation and heat built up in the rail and its surrounding during the long hot spell were neglected. The rail temperature could be even higher and un-evenly distributed due to these factors. These would increase the thermal load and reduce the critical load.

• The critical load was computed for a straight and axial loaded bar. In reality, the rail was curved and may buckle in some flexural-torsional modes.

• For a section of rail buckling, it is assumed the lateral restraints of the rail, usually in the form of spikes or clips located at about every 0.8 m along the rail, had failed due to degradation of rail fastening system (deterioration of sleepers, corrosion of rail spikes, etc.) and/or poor maintenance.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 37

Further detailed investigation of the reliability issue and adaptation options for the railway are needed and therefore recommended using relevant data available from the railway industry/authorities. Nevertheless, through this work, the need for reviewing the design and construction of railway tracks for adaptation to changing climate is identified. This would be done as follows:

• Reviewing and revising rail construction procedure, where rails are laid at its ‘neutral temperature’, to cope with increasing average and wider variation of temperature in the projected changing climate

• Reviewing and improving rail performance by improved or new construction configurations or designs of rail joints to accommodate the thermal expansion

• Re-emphasizing the importance of proper maintenance for railway tracks, using more durable materials for sleepers, spikes, etc.

• Using new materials for rails, which are less sensitive to changes of temperature

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

38 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

A preliminary study of extreme heatwave events using a historical dataset of daily maximum temperature was undertaken. The study aims at establishing an analysis framework for modelling extreme heatwave events and their effects on the building and infrastructure performance. The following remarks are made:

• To characterise heatwave events for their impact on buildings and infrastructure performance, ‘hot spells’ is a more appropriate parameter than the conventional ‘hot days’. The effect of an n-day hot spell on building thermal performance is more pronounced than the effect of n hot days occurring separately. This has been proved by case studies carried out by using the CSIRO AccuRate software to assess building thermal performance and cooling energy requirement of typical houses in Melbourne under assumed hot spell scenarios or the real hot spell temperature record in January 2009.

• The average recurrence interval, also known as the return period, of the yearly number of extreme heatwave events (hot days and hot spells) for a given threshold temperature were estimated and mapped for Australia. It is suggested that extreme temperature map(s) for the design of building and infrastructure under extreme heatwave events be developed based on the hot spell maps to provide a basis to assess vulnerability and to identify adaptation options for buildings and infrastructures on various aspects.

• Other case studies on infrastructure (electric power and railways) performance under an extreme heatwave have been investigated. The analysis approaches were outlined to provide basic information for further detailed investigations when more data become available from the relevant industries/authorities.

In summary, the study is providing essential components that can be combined to form a consistent analysis/simulation framework for further investigation of heatwave impacts on different types of physical infrastructures.

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REFERENCES

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 39

REFERENCES

ABCB (2007). Building Code of Australia – BCA 2007, Vol. 1, Australian Building Codes Board, Australia.

AER (2007). State of the Energy Market 2007 Report, Australian Energy Regulator Melbourne, Australia, ISBN 1 921227 86 9, 320pp.

Adelaide Now (2009). Galleries: Adelaide’s Soaring 40s Heatwave, Adelaide Now [online] http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/galleries/gallery-e6frecgc-1111120722963?page=2 (Assessed July 2011)

Standards Australia (2002). AS 1085.1 (2002). Australian Standard – Railway Track Materials, Part 1: Steel Rail, Standards Australia, Sydney, Australia.

BOM (2009a). Australian Maximum and Minimum Temperature Data, CD ROM, Product IDCJDC04.200806, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Australia, [online] http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/newproducts/IDCtemps.shtml (Assessed July 2011)

BOM (2009b). Australian Climatic Zones (based on Temperature and Humidity), Bureau of Meteorology, [online] http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cgi_bin_scripts/clim_classification.cgi (Assessed July 2011)

CCTP (2005). Technology Options for the Near and Long Term, US Climate Change and Technology Program, [online] http://www.climatetechnology.gov/library/2005/tech-options/tor2005-132.pdf (Accessed July 2011).

CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in Australia, Technical report 2007, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia, [online] http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/technical_report.php (Assessed July 2011)

CSIRO (2010). AccuRate: helping designers deliver energy efficient homes, CSIRO Website, [online] www.csiro.au/science/AccuRate.html (Assessed July 2011)

Grozev, G. (2009). Using NEM-Review for Victorian electricity consumption, Personal communication.

Ham, L. (2009). Tracks buckle and so does rail system, The Age, January 29, 2009, [online] http://www.theage.com.au/national/tracks-buckle-and-so-does-rail-system-20090128-7s0h.html (Assessed July 2011)

Hennessy, K., Fawcett, R., Kirono, D., Mpelasoka, F., Jones, D., Bathols, J., Whetton, P., Stafford Smith, M., Howden, M., Mitchell, C. and Plummer, N. (2008). An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Nature and Frequency of Exceptional Climatic Events – Drought: Exceptional Circumstances, CSIRO Report, Australia

IPCC (2007a). Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Avery, K.B., Tignor, M. and H.L. Miller (eds.). ISBN 978 0521 88009-1, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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REFERENCES

40 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

IPCC (2007b). Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and C.E. Hanson (eds). ISBN 978 0521 88010-7. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Sundararajan (1995). Probabilistic Structural Mechanics Handbook – Theory and Industrial Application, Chapman & Hall, 745pp.

Yates A. and Mendis P. (2009). Handbook – Climate Change Adaptation for the Railway Sector, Australian Security Research Centre, ISBN 978-0-9804337-2-2, Australia, 325pp.

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 41

APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

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42 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

1007 TROUGHTON ISLAND WA -13.7542 126.1485 138.12 122.06 0.96 1.80 0.00 0.001009 KURI BAY WA -15.4875 124.5222 287.07 96.43 50.69 30.59 0.21 0.561013 WYNDHAM WA -15.4872 128.1247 331.64 17.36 214.54 22.50 45.00 19.481021 KALUMBURU MISSION WA -14.2961 126.6431 334.60 31.36 155.17 33.67 3.87 4.432011 OLD HALLS CREEK WA -18.2519 127.7817 214.11 115.57 121.44 67.85 22.41 19.212012 HALLS CREEK AIRPORT WA -18.2292 127.6636 266.84 41.86 154.41 36.41 28.40 14.842014 KIMBERLEY RES.STATION WA -15.6547 128.7092 319.17 31.41 192.00 27.73 31.43 15.892032 WARMUN WA -17.0156 128.2175 299.49 33.75 187.84 35.23 48.76 24.093002 BROOME POST OFFICE WA -17.95 122.25 265.21 47.90 64.82 22.58 3.16 3.313003 BROOME AIRPORT WA -17.9475 122.2353 281.37 17.40 60.56 15.25 4.40 3.453006 FITZROY CROSSING COMP. WA -18.1919 125.5644 281.76 98.51 183.62 69.57 64.28 33.363007 DERBY POST OFFICE WA -17.3044 123.6292 233.88 147.89 116.76 77.06 8.45 6.893030 BIDYADANGA WA -18.6844 121.7803 283.84 47.25 105.80 24.91 11.52 6.653032 DERBY AERO WA -17.3706 123.6611 202.31 153.85 104.37 81.56 8.86 8.634002 PORT HEDLAND POST OFFICE WA -20.3139 118.5742 239.17 20.22 88.06 27.00 12.06 5.844019 MANDORA WA -19.7419 120.8436 256.18 33.99 131.84 26.21 27.49 11.184020 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON WA -21.1756 119.7497 278.60 14.62 201.54 17.41 105.09 25.484032 PORT HEDLAND AIRPORT WA -20.3725 118.6317 263.78 15.61 136.86 21.05 30.37 11.544035 ROEBOURNE WA -20.7767 117.1456 265.38 29.34 170.28 24.86 60.28 18.455007 LEARMONTH AIRPORT WA -22.2406 114.0967 217.28 14.21 117.91 14.59 29.59 11.775008 MARDIE WA -21.1906 115.9797 270.76 18.60 155.70 19.52 45.58 14.245016 ONSLOW WA -21.6364 115.1117 187.74 55.39 69.96 26.30 15.34 7.885017 ONSLOW AIRPORT WA -21.6689 115.1092 138.81 106.98 65.12 51.26 16.39 14.035026 WITTENOOM WA -22.2425 118.3358 230.96 18.82 156.20 18.90 56.75 20.605058 BARROW ISLAND WA -20.8206 115.3931 159.94 56.59 56.00 22.24 4.16 3.235069 PANNAWONICA WA -21.6392 116.3308 213.00 38.62 147.30 27.75 65.45 20.156011 CARNARVON AIRPORT WA -24.8878 113.67 83.42 22.52 25.85 8.46 5.76 3.416022 GASCOYNE JUNCTION WA -25.0544 115.21 152.36 83.10 101.67 56.84 45.38 29.866062 CARNARVON POST OFFICE WA -24.9 113.65 75.28 15.55 24.16 6.62 5.53 2.946072 EMU CREEK STATION WA -23.0314 115.0414 236.06 19.52 160.31 15.52 70.74 16.087045 MEEKATHARRA AIRPORT WA -26.6136 118.5372 169.65 13.58 99.05 17.36 27.00 12.237057 MOUNT MAGNET WA -28.0619 117.8503 115.54 70.66 68.79 43.41 21.26 14.967080 THREE RIVERS WA -25.1256 119.1514 151.28 39.35 94.67 31.72 29.97 14.047139 PAYNES FIND WA -29.2708 117.6836 124.41 49.81 68.50 29.18 19.47 10.637151 NEWMAN WA -23.3683 119.7314 205.13 30.04 133.81 20.12 37.44 16.058025 CARNAMAH WA -29.6889 115.8869 123.18 16.20 62.85 12.43 15.73 6.988028 NABAWA WA -28.5008 114.7897 107.90 14.84 51.02 9.37 12.66 6.088039 DALWALLINU COMPARISON WA -30.2772 116.6619 117.40 14.48 54.42 10.71 10.90 5.128050 GERALDTON PORT WA -28.7758 114.6017 49.57 10.29 21.85 5.86 3.91 2.618051 GERALDTON AIRPORT WA -28.7953 114.6975 78.24 15.91 35.03 8.37 8.74 4.968091 MOORA WA -30.6417 116.0072 76.18 38.33 34.37 18.66 6.89 5.078093 MORAWA WA -29.2103 116.0089 133.61 19.28 72.94 13.74 20.25 8.008095 MULLEWA WA -28.5367 115.5142 106.20 58.99 58.52 33.53 15.80 11.408137 WONGAN HILLS WA -30.8917 116.7186 107.49 15.21 46.66 10.17 9.66 4.938138 WONGAN HILLS RES.STATION WA -30.8408 116.7267 87.45 19.45 36.29 10.72 6.12 3.798151 WALEBING WA -30.665 116.1386 103.38 11.60 46.76 9.21 10.38 4.588225 ENEABBA WA -29.8183 115.2722 111.43 15.64 57.89 10.62 17.86 5.208251 KALBARRI WA -27.7119 114.165 109.30 14.73 44.19 9.17 9.68 4.629021 PERTH AIRPORT WA -31.9275 115.9764 74.06 11.87 26.17 7.14 3.84 2.949034 PERTH REGIONAL OFFICE WA -31.9556 115.8697 54.54 10.80 17.24 6.86 1.77 1.689037 BADGINGARRA RESEARCH STN WA -30.3381 115.5394 84.71 31.61 40.14 16.05 9.57 5.379038 ROTTNEST ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE WA -32.0089 115.5022 21.17 6.38 5.10 2.25 0.23 0.439053 PEARCE RAAF WA -31.6669 116.0189 51.80 37.26 20.76 15.61 4.36 4.069064 KWINANA BP REFINERY WA -32.2258 115.7611 42.08 9.56 11.13 4.86 0.92 1.049111 KARNET WA -32.44 116.0744 60.50 14.70 16.50 7.44 1.24 1.459114 LANCELIN WA -31.0164 115.33 51.76 9.56 18.98 5.55 2.60 1.919131 JURIEN BAY WA -30.3081 115.0311 58.71 9.13 20.97 5.48 2.79 2.079500 ALBANY WA -35.0289 117.8808 3.83 3.72 1.01 1.36 0.12 0.339510 BRIDGETOWN COMPARISON WA -33.9575 116.1375 53.66 11.74 15.10 6.48 1.18 1.559518 CAPE LEEUWIN WA -34.3728 115.1358 3.39 2.01 0.59 0.87 0.02 0.149519 CAPE NATURALISTE WA -33.5372 115.0189 16.26 6.93 1.98 1.91 0.02 0.149534 DONNYBROOK WA -33.5719 115.8247 59.99 10.17 16.78 5.81 1.05 1.319538 DWELLINGUP WA -32.7103 116.0594 52.52 12.48 13.26 4.96 0.60 0.959541 ESPERANCE POST OFFICE WA -33.85 121.8833 22.29 5.59 8.82 3.20 1.94 1.549573 MANJIMUP WA -34.2508 116.145 31.52 8.01 6.96 3.74 0.42 0.679581 MOUNT BARKER WA -34.625 117.6361 23.57 10.40 6.91 4.21 0.58 0.899592 PEMBERTON WA -34.4478 116.0433 26.14 6.55 5.36 2.95 0.38 0.579631 ESPERANCE DOWNS RESEARCH S WA -33.6031 121.7828 41.91 11.75 14.60 5.11 2.40 1.759642 WOKALUP WA -33.1328 115.8792 57.63 12.15 16.31 5.20 0.89 1.139741 ALBANY AIRPORT WA -34.9414 117.8022 15.10 4.27 3.86 2.08 0.79 0.87

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 43

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

9754 METTLER WA -34.5961 118.5519 17.28 5.62 4.90 2.37 0.86 0.929789 ESPERANCE WA -33.83 121.8925 31.39 5.61 11.00 3.11 2.61 1.709842 JARRAHWOOD WA -33.7964 115.6658 48.16 11.21 10.75 4.49 0.56 0.8810007 BENCUBBIN WA -30.8081 117.8603 104.22 23.24 46.06 12.26 9.58 5.0110035 CUNDERDIN WA -31.6494 117.2322 102.95 11.03 44.39 7.84 8.80 3.6310058 GOOMALLING WA -31.2994 116.8269 62.45 41.35 27.50 18.51 6.05 5.1110073 KELLERBERRIN WA -31.6183 117.7217 100.14 13.38 42.13 9.38 8.38 4.2910092 MERREDIN WA -31.4756 118.2789 100.29 12.98 41.07 7.88 7.66 3.7710093 MERREDIN RESEARCH STATION WA -31.4994 118.2242 99.04 12.94 39.38 9.50 6.55 3.5610111 NORTHAM WA -31.6508 116.6586 103.73 13.97 45.69 9.85 9.60 4.8610144 YORK POST OFFICE WA -31.8836 116.7581 97.64 14.16 40.98 8.30 7.66 4.0310515 BEVERLEY WA -32.1083 116.9247 102.64 16.08 43.28 9.99 8.64 4.6810524 BROOKTON WA -32.3725 117.0072 78.39 15.28 29.49 8.00 4.90 2.7110536 CORRIGIN WA -32.3292 117.8733 78.31 14.82 29.25 8.73 4.12 2.7210568 HYDEN WA -32.4419 118.8983 92.38 24.90 39.16 13.31 8.78 4.9510579 KATANNING COMPARISON WA -33.6886 117.5553 56.13 9.62 16.87 5.17 1.63 1.6110582 KOJONUP WA -33.8383 117.1514 41.66 10.41 11.66 3.68 1.00 1.2210592 LAKE GRACE COMPARISON WA -33.1006 118.4625 68.57 12.34 23.92 6.78 3.16 2.1410612 NAREMBEEN WA -32.0656 118.3956 86.38 17.11 34.12 9.00 5.95 3.6910614 NARROGIN WA -32.9342 117.1797 57.06 14.18 16.88 6.31 1.46 1.7110622 ONGERUP WA -33.9644 118.4889 43.73 8.11 13.41 4.27 1.34 1.2810626 PINGELLY WA -32.5336 117.0831 72.03 11.83 23.73 6.50 3.14 2.4210633 RAVENSTHORPE WA -33.5803 120.0458 48.42 7.10 16.29 4.38 2.71 2.1210647 WAGIN WA -33.3075 117.3403 61.22 13.91 18.43 6.38 2.30 1.9110648 WANDERING COMPARISON WA -32.6814 116.6756 72.86 10.66 24.54 7.23 2.70 2.2411003 EUCLA WA -31.6797 128.8792 42.06 13.38 19.20 7.99 6.00 3.3711004 FORREST AERO WA -30.8389 128.1139 94.31 12.81 40.27 7.15 10.88 4.2611017 BALLADONIA WA -32.4569 123.8653 76.83 13.74 29.10 7.88 7.64 3.9012022 CASHMERE DOWNS WA -28.97 119.5686 131.57 14.46 63.43 11.63 13.77 7.3912038 KALGOORLIE-BOULDER AIRPORT WA -30.7847 121.4533 99.91 20.52 39.93 11.21 8.56 4.7012039 KALGOORLIE POST OFFICE WA -30.75 121.4667 110.80 15.20 47.78 11.49 10.43 5.3212046 LEONORA WA -28.8836 121.3303 146.70 17.92 78.56 15.36 23.58 10.0012052 MENZIES WA -29.6917 121.0297 128.33 17.68 62.31 11.79 15.15 6.4712065 NORSEMAN WA -32.1981 121.7794 85.88 10.71 29.18 6.59 4.74 3.1112071 SALMON GUMS RES.STN. WA -32.9869 121.6239 59.03 18.32 20.11 7.85 3.51 2.4812074 SOUTHERN CROSS WA -31.2319 119.3281 113.84 13.24 51.08 11.68 10.88 5.6112090 YEELIRRIE WA -27.2842 120.0931 162.91 14.32 90.44 15.62 26.18 12.1213011 WARBURTON AIRFIELD WA -26.1317 126.5839 81.84 89.70 48.39 54.35 14.95 18.8113012 WILUNA WA -26.5914 120.225 169.80 20.96 100.34 19.73 30.52 13.0713017 GILES METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE WA -25.0341 128.301 182.73 16.94 101.06 21.29 17.65 9.6513030 TELFER AERO WA -21.7125 122.2281 233.18 32.02 163.12 27.74 73.30 23.9414008 CAPE DON NT -11.3167 131.7667 242.06 34.63 2.50 4.40 0.00 0.0014015 DARWIN AIRPORT NT -12.4239 130.8925 316.33 20.80 10.08 6.04 0.00 0.0014016 DARWIN POST OFFICE NT -12.4 130.8 329.29 17.89 41.55 28.34 0.02 0.1314042 OENPELLI NT -12.3263 133.0581 320.23 32.95 121.09 24.60 1.45 2.1414090 MIDDLE POINT NT -12.5781 131.3145 310.53 74.57 69.47 23.63 0.13 0.3414198 JABIRU AIRPORT NT -12.6594 132.8939 276.44 104.84 124.53 57.53 2.50 4.4814400 MANINGRIDA NT -12.0482 134.2263 278.07 57.09 10.07 8.10 0.00 0.0014401 WARRUWI NT -11.6502 133.3796 241.15 34.44 10.41 8.72 0.00 0.0014402 MILINGIMBI NT -12.1239 134.9078 176.82 104.78 9.08 11.11 0.00 0.0014504 GALIWINKU NT -12.028 135.5648 287.29 46.51 11.79 8.84 0.00 0.0014508 GOVE AIRPORT NT -12.2741 136.8203 155.83 103.96 5.49 5.94 0.00 0.0014609 NGUKURR NT -14.7295 134.7274 84.93 129.91 41.44 64.65 6.22 11.2814612 LARRIMAH NT -15.5748 133.2138 304.67 18.36 147.55 30.60 12.43 8.6614626 DALY WATERS AWS NT -16.2636 133.3782 163.32 147.28 86.82 80.68 10.01 13.1614703 CENTRE ISLAND NT -15.7426 136.8192 225.64 25.05 46.82 19.77 0.27 0.9814704 MCARTHUR RIVER MINE NT -16.4423 136.076 211.32 113.90 114.79 63.96 16.16 13.3514707 WOLLOGORANG NT -17.2122 137.9462 224.85 122.89 109.36 66.51 10.70 9.2414825 VICTORIA RIVER DOWNS NT -16.403 131.0145 281.64 36.98 159.83 27.89 24.12 14.8214829 LAJAMANU NT -18.3325 130.6358 97.38 125.21 59.88 78.85 14.50 24.2714840 WAVE HILL NT -17.3871 131.1166 292.74 19.36 176.56 28.66 41.24 21.8214901 DOUGLAS RIVER NT -13.8345 131.1872 124.13 149.65 56.33 69.16 1.77 4.6814903 KATHERINE AVIATION MUSEUM NT -14.4437 132.2737 118.66 155.80 56.62 75.78 1.69 3.4215085 BRUNETTE DOWNS NT -18.637 135.945 220.86 94.79 131.62 60.56 30.30 21.1615087 TENNANT CREEK POST OFFICE NT -19.6475 134.1896 238.52 14.81 141.80 22.58 28.47 14.0815135 TENNANT CREEK AIRPORT NT -19.6423 134.1833 235.18 15.92 127.66 29.79 19.24 11.5615511 CURTIN SPRINGS NT -25.3139 131.7571 178.05 19.48 103.07 20.53 29.24 12.0915528 YUENDUMU NT -22.2562 131.8017 178.43 40.10 92.62 33.11 12.00 9.2915540 ALICE SPRINGS POST OFFICE NT -23.71 133.8683 169.81 18.72 90.56 19.10 17.13 12.1015590 ALICE SPRINGS AIRPORT NT -23.7951 133.889 172.92 19.12 89.05 20.49 14.73 8.34

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

44 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

15602 JERVOIS NT -22.9494 136.1442 194.00 32.57 117.59 27.12 37.36 15.3516001 WOOMERA AERODROME SA -31.1558 136.8054 111.36 11.79 51.24 11.85 11.76 6.2016032 NONNING SA -32.5226 136.4926 94.45 11.49 41.61 9.61 8.82 4.8616044 TARCOOLA SA -30.7111 134.5694 126.08 20.74 62.84 13.65 20.30 8.4016065 ANDAMOOKA SA -30.449 137.1692 140.63 13.05 73.61 12.97 23.08 10.0017005 LEIGH CREEK AERO SA -30.4667 138.4075 126.28 13.17 58.52 9.96 12.86 6.8017024 MARREE (FARINA) SA -30.066 138.2739 138.07 14.25 73.37 14.06 17.93 7.1717031 MARREE COMPARISON SA -29.6481 138.0637 159.69 14.42 92.51 14.25 33.57 10.9917043 OODNADATTA AIRPORT SA -27.5553 135.4456 141.28 58.91 81.49 35.35 27.87 14.8817099 ARKAROOLA SA -30.311 139.3357 109.69 14.19 48.48 12.46 10.34 5.7218012 CEDUNA AMO SA -32.1297 133.6976 58.74 12.26 28.19 7.05 8.79 3.8118014 CLEVE SA -33.7011 136.4937 47.14 8.40 19.46 4.97 3.88 2.4018040 KIMBA SA -33.1414 136.4125 75.50 9.86 31.63 7.93 5.93 4.1318044 KYANCUTTA SA -33.1332 135.5552 93.14 10.97 43.79 8.55 13.48 5.5918052 MINNIPA AGRICULTURAL CENTRE SA -32.8361 135.15 78.86 11.37 34.44 8.02 7.58 3.9318069 ELLISTON SA -33.6501 134.888 32.80 6.12 11.78 4.18 1.38 1.1318070 PORT LINCOLN SA -34.7225 135.8558 20.47 6.39 5.85 2.87 1.03 1.2318079 STREAKY BAY SA -32.7963 134.2116 57.92 9.11 22.86 6.30 4.36 2.8218103 WHYALLA (NORRIE) SA -33.0303 137.5328 56.09 10.26 24.59 6.68 6.75 3.6218110 COOK SA -30.6143 130.4136 107.50 11.97 52.03 9.19 17.00 4.9818115 NEPTUNE ISLAND SA -35.3365 136.1174 1.71 1.49 0.07 0.25 0.00 0.0018139 POLDA (GUM VIEW) SA -33.5085 135.2928 71.25 11.22 31.61 7.88 8.67 4.3019017 HAWKER SA -31.8846 138.435 104.32 14.28 44.71 13.18 7.54 5.6719062 YONGALA SA -33.0287 138.7489 67.76 12.15 22.62 8.78 2.00 2.5619066 PORT AUGUSTA POWER STATION SA -32.528 137.79 83.53 10.93 35.21 6.72 9.65 4.3720026 YUNTA SA -32.5819 139.5611 90.13 13.94 38.28 11.15 8.09 5.1621014 CLARE POST OFFICE SA -33.8364 138.6125 50.11 11.58 15.92 6.58 1.35 1.6221043 PORT PIRIE NYRSTAR COMPARISO SA -33.1708 138.0104 80.46 15.98 33.56 10.35 6.98 4.9021046 SNOWTOWN SA -33.7844 138.2133 72.50 9.61 30.23 7.60 5.73 3.6422006 KADINA SA -33.9551 137.6953 64.94 10.18 25.85 7.04 4.50 3.5122008 MAITLAND SA -34.3745 137.6733 50.60 8.97 17.76 6.11 2.44 2.3022015 PRICE SA -34.2971 138.0014 35.10 5.50 15.17 4.45 4.33 2.6922018 WAROOKA SA -34.9906 137.3995 32.57 7.19 9.71 4.86 0.67 1.0022801 CAPE BORDA COMPARISON SA -35.7529 136.5938 9.63 5.29 0.63 0.93 0.00 0.0022803 CAPE WILLOUGHBY SA -35.8426 138.1327 8.95 3.48 1.78 1.44 0.08 0.2722807 KINGSCOTE SA -35.6569 137.6364 10.02 4.25 1.69 1.24 0.09 0.2923000 ADELAIDE WEST TERRACE SA -34.9254 138.5869 48.98 9.51 16.81 6.76 2.45 2.7223013 PARAFIELD AIRPORT SA -34.7977 138.6281 41.66 26.44 16.12 11.78 2.90 3.6023015 PENFIELD WEAPONS RESEARCH SA -34.7333 138.65 32.47 27.92 12.26 11.12 1.82 2.3023020 ROSEWORTHY AGRIC COLLEGE SA -34.5267 138.6883 53.38 18.06 21.13 8.12 3.88 2.6923034 ADELAIDE AIRPORT SA -34.9524 138.5204 42.42 9.05 13.79 5.96 1.42 1.7323037 ADELAIDE (PARAFIELD PLANT INTR SA -34.7833 138.6242 59.23 9.68 22.81 6.01 3.68 2.8323083 EDINBURGH RAAF SA -34.7111 138.6222 59.14 11.25 24.00 7.70 4.86 3.4623090 ADELAIDE (KENT TOWN) SA -34.9211 138.6216 54.83 11.21 19.73 7.43 2.93 2.4123321 NURIOOTPA COMPARISON SA -34.4767 139.0047 49.37 8.89 15.51 5.83 1.46 1.7623343 ROSEDALE (TURRETFIELD RESEAR SA -34.5519 138.8342 62.47 10.41 25.84 7.00 5.36 3.4823703 BELAIR (KALYRA) SA -35.0042 138.6147 30.67 8.83 7.97 4.47 0.42 0.8323733 MOUNT BARKER SA -35.0639 138.8509 38.80 9.03 11.48 5.78 0.72 0.9923747 STRATHALBYN SA -35.256 138.8901 42.70 7.22 16.39 5.39 2.48 1.9023751 VICTOR HARBOR COMPARISON SA -35.555 138.6217 21.78 5.03 7.92 3.26 1.47 1.3223801 LENSWOOD RESEARCH CENTRE SA -34.9482 138.8071 27.32 6.19 5.29 3.70 0.03 0.1824016 RENMARK SA -34.1711 140.7494 82.73 11.01 34.16 8.70 7.41 4.6524511 EUDUNDA SA -34.1754 139.0847 49.24 11.06 15.45 7.22 1.62 1.9224518 MENINGIE SA -35.6902 139.3375 31.56 6.09 10.63 4.73 1.17 1.3224521 MURRAY BRIDGE COMPARISON SA -35.1234 139.2592 54.95 9.04 22.15 7.16 4.49 3.0925507 KEITH SA -36.098 140.3556 57.67 9.17 22.29 7.14 4.36 3.0225509 LAMEROO COMPARISON SA -35.3288 140.5175 67.28 11.16 26.68 8.07 5.34 3.6126005 CAPE NORTHUMBERLAND SA -38.0573 140.6725 13.30 4.46 4.30 2.69 0.49 0.6626013 KYBYBOLITE RESEARCH CENTRE SA -36.8803 140.9286 41.48 9.47 13.34 6.04 1.86 2.0726019 MOUNT BURR FOREST RESERVE SA -37.5575 140.4197 24.92 6.50 7.95 3.87 1.11 1.4726020 MOUNT GAMBIER POST OFFICE SA -37.8333 140.7833 20.95 6.79 5.93 3.74 0.53 0.9626021 MOUNT GAMBIER AERO SA -37.7473 140.7739 24.98 6.66 8.06 4.41 0.92 1.2726023 NARACOORTE SA -36.9564 140.7402 42.76 8.20 14.92 5.67 2.03 1.8126026 ROBE COMPARISON SA -37.1628 139.756 7.46 4.03 0.59 0.91 0.00 0.0027005 COEN POST OFFICE QLD -13.9447 143.2006 71.02 95.16 6.66 10.17 0.07 0.2627006 COEN AIRPORT EVAP QLD -13.7636 143.1172 232.00 29.72 26.68 9.05 0.06 0.2427022 THURSDAY ISLAND MO QLD -10.5853 142.21 134.12 35.22 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.0027042 WEIPA EASTERN AVE QLD -12.6264 141.8836 275.24 102.15 34.00 16.44 0.00 0.0028004 PALMERVILLE QLD -16.0008 144.0758 162.46 153.38 47.26 47.57 1.03 2.0528008 LOCKHART RIVER AIRPORT QLD -12.785 143.305 163.00 25.33 5.81 4.76 0.02 0.15

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 45

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

29004 BURKETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -17.7425 139.5475 248.57 54.63 82.49 29.36 4.16 4.0329009 CLONCURRY AERO QLD -20.6717 140.5083 231.40 45.88 132.46 31.64 28.09 12.6029012 CROYDON TOWNSHIP QLD -18.2044 142.2447 299.31 24.86 142.56 24.51 11.64 7.6229025 JULIA CREEK POST OFFICE QLD -20.6569 141.7458 251.53 33.31 149.28 28.58 33.47 15.2129038 KOWANYAMA AIRPORT QLD -15.4839 141.7475 278.05 57.02 78.80 23.60 0.68 1.5929039 MORNINGTON ISLAND QLD -16.664 139.1837 197.80 42.44 13.69 15.94 0.00 0.0029041 NORMANTON POST OFFICE QLD -17.6706 141.0672 304.39 21.24 136.52 30.08 6.00 5.1029090 TOORAK RESEARCH STATION QLD -21.0344 141.8008 174.72 91.64 104.90 60.05 25.44 17.2929127 MOUNT ISA AERO QLD -20.6778 139.4875 230.93 19.58 121.95 27.29 18.08 10.4429141 CLONCURRY AIRPORT QLD -20.6664 140.505 117.90 122.45 72.72 78.67 16.83 21.4830018 GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -18.2922 143.5483 276.19 22.80 108.67 33.09 4.68 5.4830024 HUGHENDEN POST OFFICE QLD -20.8447 144.1986 228.40 14.94 101.74 24.15 8.71 5.9530045 RICHMOND POST OFFICE QLD -20.7289 143.1425 252.94 26.21 141.15 28.09 26.99 15.3531010 CAIRNS POST OFFICE QLD -16.9333 145.7833 147.57 28.39 5.32 6.69 0.13 0.4931011 CAIRNS AERO QLD -16.8736 145.7458 142.42 17.70 3.05 2.90 0.05 0.2131016 COOKTOWN POST OFFICE QLD -15.4633 145.25 128.83 16.29 4.83 3.85 0.03 0.1831017 COOKTOWN MISSION STRIP QLD -15.4486 145.1861 46.44 71.80 3.32 6.50 0.08 0.3831029 HERBERTON WHITE ST QLD -17.3851 145.3869 48.76 17.27 1.03 1.77 0.00 0.0031034 KAIRI RESEARCH STATION QLD -17.215 145.5656 36.19 15.16 1.17 1.87 0.00 0.0031037 LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE QLD -16.3842 145.5592 160.75 21.65 6.48 6.62 0.00 0.0031066 MAREEBA QWRC QLD -16.995 145.4253 77.89 40.58 7.00 6.06 0.06 0.2431108 WALKAMIN DPI QLD -17.1347 145.4281 87.38 19.05 4.38 3.05 0.00 0.0032004 CARDWELL MARINE PDE QLD -18.2553 146.0197 150.20 25.93 4.98 5.77 0.12 0.4432005 CAPE CLEVELAND LIGHTHOUSE QLD -19.1833 147.0167 101.53 26.40 1.27 1.89 0.00 0.0032025 INNISFAIL QLD -17.5249 146.0345 83.66 31.07 2.30 2.47 0.08 0.3432037 SOUTH JOHNSTONE EXP STN QLD -17.6053 145.9972 117.71 25.33 5.17 4.85 0.07 0.2632040 TOWNSVILLE AERO QLD -19.2483 146.7661 144.70 25.49 3.42 3.79 0.13 0.3932078 INGHAM COMPOSITE QLD -18.6494 146.1769 148.18 34.00 15.08 11.34 0.56 1.2533001 BURDEKIN SHIRE COUNCIL QLD -19.5775 147.4075 137.86 31.98 9.09 14.61 0.34 1.7333002 AYR DPI RESEARCH STN QLD -19.6169 147.3758 136.35 39.91 5.42 6.25 0.25 0.6433013 COLLINSVILLE POST OFFICE QLD -20.5534 147.8464 172.12 44.78 36.24 20.08 0.92 1.7433045 MACKAY AERO QLD -21.1706 149.1794 27.93 41.36 0.54 1.55 0.00 0.0033046 MACKAY POST OFFICE QLD -21.15 149.1833 77.10 26.17 1.77 2.92 0.00 0.0033047 TE KOWAI EXP STN QLD -21.1642 149.1192 95.33 35.45 4.70 5.74 0.07 0.2633058 PINE ISLET LIGHTHOUSE QLD -21.6667 150.2167 73.55 21.93 0.10 0.31 0.00 0.0033065 ST LAWRENCE POST OFFICE QLD -22.3458 149.5356 133.24 24.90 4.88 5.13 0.24 0.8233119 MACKAY M.O QLD -21.1172 149.2169 62.69 26.21 0.69 1.60 0.00 0.0034002 CHARTERS TOWERS POST OFFICE QLD -20.0781 146.2614 189.71 25.08 53.75 18.76 3.25 3.4335019 CLERMONT SIRIUS ST QLD -22.8239 147.6425 183.00 22.74 58.78 21.63 3.16 3.4835027 EMERALD POST OFFICE QLD -23.5267 148.1617 173.02 29.38 61.15 27.43 5.04 5.4635065 SPRINGSURE DAME ST QLD -24.1222 148.0867 132.12 32.37 35.55 16.11 2.07 2.1835069 TAMBO POST OFFICE QLD -24.8819 146.2564 165.76 20.97 60.92 19.35 4.18 3.9235070 TAROOM POST OFFICE QLD -25.6408 149.7958 152.66 21.06 41.14 18.23 2.20 2.6735149 BRIGALOW RESEARCH STN QLD -24.8353 149.8003 147.90 28.83 32.54 18.88 1.26 1.5836007 BARCALDINE POST OFFICE QLD -23.5544 145.2883 198.31 16.22 87.78 23.14 9.29 6.0836026 ISISFORD POST OFFICE QLD -24.2589 144.4406 171.82 37.47 94.24 26.98 18.66 10.5336030 LONGREACH POST OFFICE QLD -23.45 144.25 211.05 26.31 121.46 26.74 28.16 14.6436031 LONGREACH AERO QLD -23.4372 144.2769 219.05 15.22 120.59 24.52 23.00 12.3636143 BLACKALL TOWNSHIP QLD -24.4214 145.4672 195.93 14.09 93.98 20.23 10.49 7.5137010 CAMOOWEAL TOWNSHIP QLD -19.9225 138.1214 250.81 31.13 152.97 31.05 35.54 18.1437043 URANDANGI QLD -21.6119 138.3136 235.08 17.11 152.64 21.94 53.28 18.7237051 WINTON POST OFFICE QLD -22.3908 143.0386 235.18 13.66 137.82 22.51 30.36 13.8638002 BIRDSVILLE POLICE STATION QLD -25.9003 139.3486 195.47 15.68 122.77 16.92 45.06 14.1238003 BOULIA AIRPORT QLD -22.9117 139.9039 214.50 23.32 137.34 21.80 45.15 18.7838024 WINDORAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.4228 142.6564 183.95 58.26 112.00 41.35 32.57 19.3039004 BARALABA POST OFFICE QLD -24.1819 149.8117 188.44 19.50 56.17 23.21 2.20 2.6339006 BILOELA DPI QLD -24.3789 150.5164 154.83 19.09 30.10 15.26 0.77 1.2539015 BUNDABERG POST OFFICE QLD -24.8667 152.3467 74.81 27.56 2.15 5.93 0.01 0.1039023 CAPE CAPRICORN LIGHTHOUSE QLD -23.4833 151.2333 6.00 5.19 0.07 0.25 0.00 0.0039039 GAYNDAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.6258 151.6094 141.63 25.44 29.84 20.84 1.78 3.7739059 LADY ELLIOT ISLAND QLD -24.1119 152.7158 30.76 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039083 ROCKHAMPTON AERO QLD -23.3753 150.4775 134.91 20.87 17.97 10.01 0.40 0.8339085 SANDY CAPE LIGHTHOUSE QLD -24.7297 153.2083 33.34 22.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039104 MONTO TOWNSHIP QLD -24.8642 151.1247 90.16 58.42 14.80 12.78 0.29 0.6939122 HERON ISLAND RES STN QLD -23.4422 151.9131 27.32 28.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039123 GLADSTONE RADAR QLD -23.8553 151.2628 111.29 23.94 4.57 6.03 0.06 0.2439128 BUNDABERG AERO QLD -24.8885 152.3235 35.00 35.06 0.85 1.88 0.00 0.0040004 AMBERLEY AMO QLD -27.6297 152.7111 92.32 21.95 12.09 8.17 0.64 1.0540043 CAPE MORETON LIGHTHOUSE QLD -27.0314 153.4661 1.72 3.06 0.02 0.14 0.00 0.0040062 CROHAMHURST QLD -26.8094 152.87 29.74 14.00 2.97 2.54 0.06 0.24

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

46 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

40068 DOUBLE ISLAND POINT LIGHTHOU QLD -25.9319 153.1906 12.48 17.73 0.14 0.35 0.00 0.0040082 UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND GAT QLD -27.5436 152.3375 101.48 27.07 16.71 11.34 1.12 1.5640093 GYMPIE QLD -26.1831 152.6414 83.45 25.82 12.40 8.47 0.31 0.6840100 IMBIL FORESTRY QLD -26.4619 152.6644 55.29 15.87 7.46 5.06 0.17 0.5740112 KINGAROY PRINCE STREET QLD -26.5544 151.8456 60.21 16.37 4.60 3.22 0.05 0.2140126 MARYBOROUGH QLD -25.5161 152.7156 79.54 22.95 3.24 3.05 0.02 0.1440190 SOUTHPORT RIDGEWAY AVE QLD -27.9833 153.4053 29.44 10.88 1.41 1.69 0.06 0.3440211 ARCHERFIELD AIRPORT QLD -27.5717 153.0078 30.90 36.19 2.19 3.16 0.09 0.4140214 BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE QLD -27.4778 153.0306 50.08 17.87 3.51 3.01 0.14 0.4340223 BRISBANE AERO QLD -27.4178 153.1142 37.00 14.00 1.28 1.68 0.00 0.0040264 TEWANTIN POST OFFICE QLD -26.3919 153.0408 33.27 17.77 2.33 3.01 0.04 0.2440265 REDLANDS HRS QLD -27.5278 153.25 17.88 9.79 0.45 0.71 0.00 0.0040282 NAMBOUR DPI QLD -26.6431 152.9392 43.98 12.11 4.93 3.69 0.17 0.4440428 BRIAN PASTURES QLD -25.655 151.745 135.79 20.55 20.87 9.69 0.85 1.3340436 GATTON QDPI RESEARCH STN QLD -27.5456 152.3286 106.82 21.53 17.79 10.95 1.34 2.2640451 TOOLARA FORESTRY QLD -25.9961 152.8339 50.53 13.70 4.13 3.29 0.07 0.3741023 DALBY POST OFFICE QLD -27.1839 151.2639 110.13 22.87 23.95 14.03 1.29 1.9841038 GOONDIWINDI POST OFFICE QLD -28.5481 150.3075 130.23 25.17 43.04 20.05 4.56 5.5341044 HERMITAGE QLD -28.2061 152.1003 54.09 14.71 5.24 4.89 0.15 0.4441095 STANTHORPE LESLIE PARADE QLD -28.6617 151.9339 22.52 14.59 1.06 1.97 0.00 0.0041100 TEXAS POST OFFICE QLD -28.8544 151.1681 104.71 29.07 28.42 13.56 2.08 2.4641103 TOOWOOMBA QLD -27.5836 151.9317 28.54 13.83 2.76 2.88 0.00 0.0041175 APPLETHORPE QLD -28.6217 151.9533 14.54 11.78 0.61 1.07 0.00 0.0041359 OAKEY AERO QLD -27.4034 151.7413 70.88 23.99 9.53 7.53 0.12 0.4142023 MILES POST OFFICE QLD -26.6581 150.1844 123.32 28.05 30.02 14.87 1.55 1.9043015 INJUNE POST OFFICE QLD -25.8428 148.5669 117.45 28.10 32.33 14.93 1.78 1.9843020 MITCHELL POST OFFICE QLD -26.4888 147.9777 143.18 26.98 49.15 20.83 3.69 4.5943030 ROMA POST OFFICE QLD -26.5719 148.7897 154.51 18.43 56.60 19.18 5.00 4.6343034 ST GEORGE POST OFFICE QLD -28.0361 148.5814 147.11 17.07 53.69 17.12 4.83 4.0543035 SURAT QLD -27.159 149.0703 141.16 22.31 49.36 19.64 3.69 3.4644010 BOLLON MARY ST QLD -28.0336 147.4803 151.94 18.15 68.78 22.49 12.30 7.5644021 CHARLEVILLE AERO QLD -26.4139 146.2558 155.57 22.08 62.86 22.54 6.18 5.4144022 CHARLEVILLE POST OFFICE QLD -26.4025 146.2381 164.89 25.43 82.63 30.10 14.90 11.9644026 CUNNAMULLA POST OFFICE QLD -28.0706 145.6808 158.18 22.47 75.70 22.44 13.64 8.8245015 QUILPIE AIRPORT QLD -26.6125 144.2578 179.24 17.36 97.14 22.15 19.52 11.0545017 THARGOMINDAH POST OFFICE QLD -27.9978 143.8197 164.72 25.69 90.30 24.89 23.34 12.7446037 TIBOOBURRA POST OFFICE NSW -29.4345 142.0098 141.51 17.37 74.31 16.07 18.71 9.0646042 WHITE CLIFFS POST OFFICE NSW -30.8506 143.0893 131.87 27.06 67.49 19.04 18.33 9.2246043 WILCANNIA(REID ST) NSW -31.5631 143.3747 128.36 15.57 64.04 13.16 16.56 8.5847007 BROKEN HILL (PATTON STREET) NSW -31.9759 141.4676 79.18 32.02 31.68 15.90 5.36 4.9747016 LAKE VICTORIA STORAGE NSW -34.0398 141.2652 74.12 18.26 27.57 10.42 5.05 3.6247019 MENINDEE POST OFFICE NSW -32.3937 142.4173 89.46 20.82 42.90 14.88 10.35 6.5647048 BROKEN HILL AIRPORT AWS NSW -32.0012 141.4694 36.96 45.43 15.40 20.50 2.60 4.5348013 BOURKE POST OFFICE NSW -30.0917 145.9358 147.41 24.96 76.00 24.60 21.53 15.0948015 BREWARRINA HOSPITAL NSW -29.9614 146.8651 129.05 25.69 59.76 19.09 13.17 8.6348027 COBAR MO NSW -31.484 145.8294 112.38 15.97 44.49 16.96 6.62 5.0548030 COBAR POST OFFICE NSW -31.5 145.8 116.13 37.80 57.19 24.43 13.31 9.7048031 COLLARENEBRI (ALBERT ST) NSW -29.5407 148.5818 117.33 33.98 47.57 22.72 7.12 5.7949002 BALRANALD (RSL) NSW -34.6398 143.561 71.45 18.22 28.50 10.76 6.52 4.8049019 IVANHOE POST OFFICE NSW -32.8999 144.2995 106.98 25.57 51.27 18.41 13.40 8.4150014 CONDOBOLIN RETIREMENT VILLAG NSW -33.0818 147.1524 89.90 17.42 31.03 15.70 4.55 5.0050031 PEAK HILL POST OFFICE NSW -32.7235 148.1902 96.79 20.11 31.98 15.71 3.19 3.5350052 CONDOBOLIN AG RESEARCH STN NSW -33.0664 147.2283 89.38 25.92 33.60 15.79 5.40 4.5751010 COONAMBLE COMPARISON NSW -30.9753 148.3806 113.26 21.84 40.14 15.90 5.02 4.4651039 NYNGAN AIRPORT NSW -31.5495 147.1961 121.52 16.19 46.44 14.95 7.27 5.3851049 TRANGIE RESEARCH STATION AW NSW -31.9861 147.9489 97.55 19.25 32.66 14.95 3.66 3.8952020 MUNGINDI POST OFFICE NSW -28.9786 148.9899 123.88 27.47 51.57 20.50 7.21 5.4252026 WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT NSW -30.0236 148.1218 137.07 20.34 61.61 20.65 11.91 9.1153002 BARADINE FORESTRY NSW -30.9469 149.0654 79.33 14.53 24.26 10.90 2.12 2.3553030 NARRABRI WEST POST OFFICE NSW -30.3401 149.7552 125.45 25.39 42.00 19.26 2.75 2.6153048 MOREE COMPARISON NSW -29.4819 149.8383 122.42 19.11 32.42 15.87 2.03 2.3854003 BARRABA POST OFFICE NSW -30.3781 150.6096 85.20 23.57 15.02 10.85 0.44 0.8154104 PINDARI DAM NSW -29.3899 151.2448 81.83 20.65 10.50 6.73 0.08 0.2855023 GUNNEDAH POOL NSW -30.9841 150.254 105.66 27.97 37.70 23.07 4.72 6.3755024 GUNNEDAH RESOURCE CENTRE NSW -31.0261 150.2687 87.97 20.48 19.81 12.55 1.02 1.8655049 QUIRINDI POST OFFICE NSW -31.5086 150.6792 82.81 22.46 20.57 12.72 0.93 1.8055054 TAMWORTH AIRPORT NSW -31.0867 150.8467 76.57 18.56 13.83 9.44 0.51 1.0155136 WOOLBROOK (DANGLEMAH ROAD NSW -30.9672 151.3451 24.65 14.64 1.00 1.67 0.00 0.0056002 ARMIDALE (RADIO STATION 2AD) NSW -30.5167 151.6681 20.10 10.46 0.56 1.07 0.00 0.0056011 GLEN INNES POST OFFICE NSW -29.7368 151.7366 14.71 9.46 0.24 0.61 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 47

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

56013 GLEN INNES AG RESEARCH STN NSW -29.6953 151.6936 7.30 6.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0056017 INVERELL COMPARISON NSW -29.7783 151.1114 66.31 26.92 9.53 10.42 0.36 1.0656018 INVERELL RESEARCH CENTRE NSW -29.7752 151.0819 41.43 17.88 2.52 2.48 0.00 0.0056032 TENTERFIELD (FEDERATION PARK NSW -29.0479 152.0172 21.57 11.34 1.05 1.67 0.00 0.0057095 TABULAM (MUIRNE) NSW -28.7551 152.4507 27.30 14.24 2.24 2.82 0.00 0.0058009 BYRON BAY (CAPE BYRON LIGHTH NSW -28.6388 153.6361 11.31 5.77 0.06 0.25 0.00 0.0058012 YAMBA PILOT STATION NSW -29.4333 153.3633 5.37 4.72 0.81 1.33 0.06 0.3058037 LISMORE (CENTRE STREET) NSW -28.807 153.2628 62.85 13.89 8.00 4.39 0.37 0.8558063 CASINO AIRPORT NSW -28.8755 153.0493 79.88 19.17 14.50 8.45 0.93 1.5058130 GRAFTON OLYMPIC POOL NSW -29.6823 152.9278 68.29 18.50 9.93 6.40 0.78 1.2958131 ALSTONVILLE TROPICAL FRUIT RE NSW -28.8521 153.4556 19.64 16.43 1.64 2.53 0.03 0.1658158 MURWILLUMBAH (BRAY PARK) NSW -28.3395 153.3809 56.97 18.47 4.60 3.64 0.20 0.6359017 KEMPSEY (WIDE STREET) NSW -31.077 152.8235 40.31 19.22 3.19 2.64 0.26 0.5959030 SOUTH WEST ROCKS (SMOKY CAP NSW -30.9225 153.087 7.70 7.81 0.42 0.91 0.04 0.2859040 COFFS HARBOUR MO NSW -30.3107 153.1187 12.03 7.75 1.34 1.60 0.28 0.5860026 PORT MACQUARIE (BELLEVUE GAR NSW -31.4399 152.911 3.02 2.65 0.41 0.78 0.11 0.3860030 TAREE (ROBERTSON ST) NSW -31.9033 152.4496 53.08 16.23 9.28 6.61 0.67 1.0360085 YARRAS (MOUNT SEAVIEW) NSW -31.3865 152.2482 53.08 18.57 9.05 6.15 0.66 1.0761051 MURRURUNDI POST OFFICE NSW -31.7631 150.8362 57.26 21.40 9.95 7.47 0.12 0.3361054 NELSON BAY (NELSON HEAD) NSW -32.7103 152.1612 2.79 5.46 0.21 0.52 0.03 0.1661055 NEWCASTLE NOBBYS SIGNAL STA NSW -32.9185 151.7985 13.90 5.42 3.02 2.15 0.16 0.3761078 WILLIAMTOWN RAAF NSW -32.7932 151.8359 33.42 15.63 8.06 5.82 0.94 1.3861086 JERRYS PLAINS POST OFFICE NSW -32.4972 150.9093 76.00 20.16 23.18 12.00 3.04 2.9761087 GOSFORD (NARARA RESEARCH ST NSW -33.3949 151.3289 18.10 18.13 4.14 5.04 0.57 0.8961089 SCONE SCS NSW -32.0632 150.9272 69.50 19.22 18.24 10.06 1.29 2.1061242 CESSNOCK (NULKABA) NSW -32.8093 151.349 64.32 19.03 19.15 10.80 2.32 2.5261250 PATERSON (TOCAL AWS) NSW -32.6296 151.5919 52.10 19.42 14.92 10.16 1.46 1.6461260 CESSNOCK AIRPORT AWS NSW -32.7886 151.3377 23.18 29.43 6.21 9.90 0.69 1.5661273 NORAH HEAD LIGHTHOUSE NSW -33.2815 151.5759 9.12 5.23 2.35 2.03 0.24 0.5561288 LOSTOCK DAM NSW -32.3322 151.4595 52.74 20.44 12.84 9.49 0.68 1.2862013 GULGONG POST OFFICE NSW -32.3634 149.5329 63.81 21.55 15.92 10.43 0.97 1.9962021 MUDGEE (GEORGE STREET) NSW -32.5956 149.5956 60.33 16.22 13.52 7.62 0.30 0.5963004 BATHURST GAOL NSW -33.4167 149.55 42.63 21.71 7.97 8.65 0.29 0.9163005 BATHURST AGRICULTURAL STATIO NSW -33.4289 149.5559 32.17 16.03 4.12 4.40 0.02 0.1663023 COWRA RESEARCH CENTRE (EVAN NSW -33.8087 148.7071 65.40 22.62 16.67 11.56 0.86 1.6263039 KATOOMBA (MURRI ST) NSW -33.7122 150.3087 7.38 6.00 0.32 0.62 0.00 0.0063063 OBERON (SPRINGBANK) NSW -33.6774 149.8374 5.45 7.02 0.05 0.22 0.00 0.0063224 LITHGOW (BIRDWOOD ST) NSW -33.4901 150.1498 18.00 11.02 1.58 2.11 0.00 0.0063231 ORANGE AIRPORT COMPARISON NSW -33.3815 149.1229 14.69 10.85 0.46 0.88 0.00 0.0063254 ORANGE AGRICULTURAL INSTITUT NSW -33.3211 149.0828 16.90 10.57 0.68 1.62 0.00 0.0064008 COONABARABRAN (NAMOI STREETNSW -31.2712 149.2714 76.68 22.51 16.54 10.75 0.54 1.0164009 DUNEDOO POST OFFICE NSW -32.0163 149.3953 74.64 23.37 22.36 12.55 1.74 2.1265012 DUBBO (DARLING STREET) NSW -32.2388 148.6089 90.54 17.65 26.85 12.10 2.46 2.7165016 FORBES (CAMP STREET) NSW -33.3892 148.0081 91.20 21.73 32.59 17.41 4.16 4.6965026 PARKES (MACARTHUR STREET) NSW -33.1439 148.1633 82.24 20.27 23.92 13.82 2.14 2.9065034 WELLINGTON (AGROWPLOW) NSW -32.5635 148.9503 81.64 22.24 23.05 12.85 1.83 2.9365035 WELLINGTON RESEARCH CENTRE NSW -32.5059 148.9708 67.38 20.33 16.56 9.70 1.15 2.4265091 COWRA AIRPORT COMPARISON NSW -33.8451 148.6534 79.02 20.01 25.07 13.47 2.73 2.7766037 SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO NSW -33.9411 151.1725 21.84 7.89 4.88 2.98 0.75 0.9766062 SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) NSW -33.8607 151.205 14.67 5.75 3.07 2.25 0.27 0.5866124 PARRAMATTA NORTH (MASONS DR NSW -33.7917 151.0181 41.23 13.28 10.15 6.11 1.25 1.4666131 RIVERVIEW OBSERVATORY NSW -33.8258 151.1556 13.16 13.79 2.29 2.90 0.24 0.5766137 BANKSTOWN AIRPORT AWS NSW -33.9181 150.9864 36.54 10.93 8.54 5.24 1.08 1.2967019 PROSPECT DAM NSW -33.8193 150.9127 43.17 14.68 10.07 6.49 0.95 1.3267033 RICHMOND RAAF NSW -33.6022 150.7794 47.17 25.65 13.09 9.51 1.89 2.0967035 LIVERPOOL(WHITLAM CENTRE) NSW -33.9272 150.9128 41.68 12.14 10.39 5.74 1.26 1.6668034 JERVIS BAY (POINT PERPENDICULA NSW -35.0936 150.8048 7.02 4.07 0.94 1.17 0.02 0.1568076 NOWRA RAN AIR STATION NSW -34.9449 150.545 22.36 10.13 5.05 3.64 0.89 1.2668102 BOWRAL (PARRY DRIVE) NSW -34.4869 150.4019 17.22 10.78 2.34 2.93 0.02 0.1668188 WOLLONGONG UNIVERSITY NSW -34.403 150.8795 14.49 6.71 2.68 1.81 0.30 0.7468192 CAMDEN AIRPORT AWS NSW -34.0391 150.689 45.66 22.31 12.03 8.93 1.89 2.1069017 MONTAGUE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE NSW -36.2519 150.2275 1.89 1.66 0.16 0.37 0.03 0.1669018 MORUYA HEADS PILOT STATION NSW -35.9093 150.1532 6.46 3.62 1.92 1.68 0.30 0.5869022 NAROOMA RVCP NSW -36.2144 150.1358 1.67 1.96 0.36 0.66 0.02 0.1569049 NERRIGA COMPOSITE NSW -35.1165 150.0847 25.28 11.31 4.69 4.29 0.00 0.0070005 BOMBALA (THERRY STREET) NSW -36.9113 149.2379 18.50 9.89 2.62 2.75 0.02 0.1570014 CANBERRA AIRPORT NSW -35.3049 149.2014 31.12 14.14 5.12 4.85 0.07 0.3170080 TARALGA POST OFFICE NSW -34.4048 149.8197 18.62 11.24 2.12 2.66 0.00 0.0070091 YASS (LINTON HOSTEL) NSW -34.8305 148.9117 44.78 17.67 10.05 8.45 0.32 0.6170263 GOULBURN TAFE NSW -34.7495 149.7034 27.28 15.69 5.39 5.34 0.08 0.37

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

48 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

70278 COOMA VISITORS CENTRE NSW -36.2318 149.1243 25.91 11.48 2.35 2.46 0.00 0.0071003 CHARLOTTE PASS (KOSCIUSKO CH NSW -36.4335 148.3327 0.03 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071032 THREDBO AWS NSW -36.4917 148.2859 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071041 THREDBO VILLAGE NSW -36.5031 148.304 0.53 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071072 PERISHER VALLEY SKI CENTRE NSW -36.4033 148.4104 0.03 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0072023 HUME RESERVOIR NSW -36.1039 147.0329 58.76 19.38 14.40 9.76 1.02 1.3972043 TUMBARUMBA POST OFFICE NSW -35.7781 148.0121 27.02 15.95 3.07 3.11 0.00 0.0072060 KHANCOBAN SMHEA NSW -36.2254 148.1431 46.50 16.84 7.72 6.24 0.25 0.6272091 CABRAMURRA SMHEA NSW -35.9383 148.3842 0.14 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0072150 WAGGA WAGGA AMO NSW -35.1583 147.4573 66.46 17.03 19.22 10.11 2.00 2.3572151 WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL) NSW -35.1333 147.3667 86.20 23.85 33.76 16.27 5.77 5.7473007 BURRINJUCK DAM NSW -34.9997 148.5984 47.50 21.05 11.83 9.97 0.36 0.6973009 COOTAMUNDRA POST OFFICE NSW -34.6411 148.0236 67.50 15.07 18.71 10.21 1.29 1.5873014 GRENFELL (QUONDONG RD) NSW -33.9029 148.1718 63.07 23.56 18.60 11.97 1.38 1.9773032 QUANDIALLA POST OFFICE NSW -34.0112 147.7937 86.29 24.19 30.40 16.74 3.88 4.2673038 TEMORA RESEARCH STATION NSW -34.4061 147.5248 71.10 13.65 21.28 10.73 2.10 2.0673054 WYALONG POST OFFICE NSW -33.9262 147.2418 85.21 17.95 28.79 13.24 3.69 3.2973127 WAGGA WAGGA AGRICULTURAL INNSW -35.0517 147.3493 39.74 34.48 12.85 13.39 1.34 2.0274034 COROWA AIRPORT NSW -35.9887 146.3574 70.22 16.47 22.41 10.08 2.70 2.6074106 TOCUMWAL AIRPORT NSW -35.817 145.6004 74.25 15.48 26.33 10.98 4.56 4.4074114 WAGGA WAGGA RESEARCH CENT NSW -35.1311 147.3091 58.07 15.40 15.29 8.66 1.18 1.6974128 DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) NSW -35.5269 144.952 77.68 20.64 31.53 14.70 7.15 6.8074148 NARRANDERA AIRPORT NSW -34.705 146.514 23.56 37.58 8.22 14.50 1.06 2.5574221 NARRANDERA GOLF CLUB NSW -34.7325 146.5592 82.59 16.22 29.68 12.95 4.78 4.3675031 HAY (MILLER STREET) NSW -34.5194 144.8545 90.74 13.56 34.84 9.93 6.66 4.5275032 HILLSTON AIRPORT NSW -33.4915 145.5249 99.30 14.51 38.62 12.87 7.04 5.0075039 LAKE CARGELLIGO AIRPORT NSW -33.2833 146.3707 89.21 23.77 34.48 13.72 6.55 5.0775041 GRIFFITH AIRPORT AWS NSW -34.2487 146.0695 63.57 34.07 24.27 17.91 4.11 5.0276031 MILDURA AIRPORT VIC -34.2358 142.0867 79.16 12.75 30.79 9.94 5.36 4.1976047 OUYEN (POST OFFICE) VIC -35.0694 142.3158 81.60 10.84 32.72 8.80 7.16 4.7076064 WALPEUP RESEARCH VIC -35.12 142.0039 74.21 10.92 29.21 8.76 6.52 4.6076077 MILDURA POST OFFICE VIC -34.1833 142.2 89.15 18.43 40.78 13.24 10.97 7.9477042 SWAN HILL POST OFFICE VIC -35.3406 143.5533 73.61 10.33 24.81 8.63 3.86 3.6278031 NHILL VIC -36.3347 141.6367 51.32 15.95 18.81 7.93 3.39 3.0578072 DONALD VIC -36.3696 142.9724 51.94 9.74 14.79 6.63 1.55 1.6278077 WARRACKNABEAL MUSEUM VIC -36.2614 142.405 63.03 11.47 23.03 8.15 4.37 3.5379023 HORSHAM POLKEMMET RD VIC -36.6613 142.0687 53.68 11.40 18.84 7.66 2.94 2.4379028 LONGERENONG VIC -36.6722 142.2992 51.79 11.96 18.29 8.42 2.95 2.6580015 ECHUCA AERODROME VIC -36.1661 144.7631 63.84 13.14 20.58 8.71 2.98 2.8180023 KERANG VIC -35.7236 143.9197 71.09 13.02 24.44 9.08 4.67 3.6680091 KYABRAM DPI VIC -36.3369 145.0617 51.02 13.01 13.98 7.89 1.55 1.9581003 BENDIGO PRISON VIC -36.7533 144.2825 42.53 9.72 10.29 5.80 0.65 0.9881049 TATURA INST SUSTAINABLE AG VIC -36.4378 145.2672 46.57 11.64 11.05 6.32 0.74 1.0881084 LEMNOS (CAMPBELLS SOUP) VIC -36.3608 145.4594 52.13 10.73 13.50 7.53 1.37 1.6982002 BENALLA (SHADFORTH STREET) VIC -36.5483 145.9703 60.86 12.99 14.94 7.36 0.90 1.2982011 CORRYONG (PARISH LANE) VIC -36.2003 147.8956 58.36 18.10 12.48 9.38 0.39 0.6682039 RUTHERGLEN RESEARCH VIC -36.1047 146.5094 61.08 20.58 16.91 9.18 1.66 2.0982042 STRATHBOGIE VIC -36.8472 145.7308 28.55 11.03 4.42 3.84 0.03 0.1782053 WANGARATTA VIC -36.3667 146.3 62.93 12.31 16.55 9.01 1.31 1.7582076 DARTMOUTH RESERVOIR VIC -36.5353 147.4984 41.44 16.71 6.97 6.81 0.09 0.3083025 OMEO COMPARISON VIC -37.1011 147.598 19.28 9.77 1.76 2.45 0.04 0.2884016 GABO ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE VIC -37.5679 149.9158 1.22 1.30 0.22 0.51 0.02 0.1484030 ORBOST (COMPARISON) VIC -37.6917 148.4589 26.14 7.22 6.94 4.07 0.86 0.9784070 POINT HICKS (LIGHTHOUSE) VIC -37.8017 149.2747 10.83 4.39 1.61 1.39 0.07 0.2684083 LAKES ENTRANCE VIC -37.8692 147.9961 14.05 5.36 3.75 2.51 0.50 0.7285072 EAST SALE AIRPORT VIC -38.1156 147.1322 19.42 5.86 5.29 3.48 0.47 0.7285096 WILSONS PROMONTORY LIGHTHO VIC -39.1297 146.4244 5.88 3.54 1.18 1.22 0.06 0.2485106 OLSENS BRIDGE (MORWELL RIVER VIC -38.4861 146.3233 14.97 6.06 3.26 2.80 0.12 0.3385279 BAIRNSDALE AIRPORT VIC -37.8817 147.5669 8.98 11.58 2.95 4.50 0.41 0.8586017 CAPE SCHANCK LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.4931 144.8858 9.66 5.26 2.29 2.35 0.03 0.1786038 ESSENDON AIRPORT VIC -37.7278 144.9064 16.01 15.44 5.16 5.89 0.62 1.2386071 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE VIC -37.8075 144.97 29.90 6.88 9.88 4.77 1.29 1.5286077 MOORABBIN AIRPORT VIC -37.98 145.0964 26.42 6.87 8.47 4.64 0.86 1.2086104 SCORESBY RESEARCH INSTITUTE VIC -37.8711 145.2561 27.07 10.68 6.88 4.73 0.48 0.9286127 WONTHAGGI VIC -38.6089 145.595 18.03 5.95 4.15 2.92 0.28 0.5186142 TOOLANGI (MOUNT ST LEONARD D VIC -37.5708 145.5047 9.51 5.77 0.73 1.30 0.02 0.1686282 MELBOURNE AIRPORT VIC -37.6655 144.8321 30.97 8.40 9.49 5.40 1.11 1.3387021 DURDIDWARRAH VIC -37.8233 144.2078 17.94 7.57 3.51 3.09 0.06 0.2487031 LAVERTON RAAF VIC -37.8565 144.7566 26.03 6.13 9.14 4.31 1.27 1.6987036 MACEDON FORESTRY VIC -37.4155 144.5569 15.97 7.25 2.69 2.39 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX A – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 49

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Latitude Longitude Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std

88023 LAKE EILDON VIC -37.2311 145.9122 43.03 14.09 8.51 6.29 0.35 0.6888043 MARYBOROUGH VIC -37.0561 143.7319 44.17 10.22 12.29 6.27 1.05 1.4188068 RUBICON SEC VIC -37.3389 145.8547 6.37 5.09 0.17 0.57 0.00 0.0088109 MANGALORE AIRPORT VIC -36.89 145.1828 44.69 12.93 12.75 7.26 1.42 1.7588110 CASTLEMAINE PRISON VIC -37.0811 144.2392 37.80 11.96 8.98 5.62 0.51 0.8489002 BALLARAT AERODROME VIC -37.5128 143.7911 22.72 8.49 4.56 3.64 0.26 0.6089018 LISMORE (POST OFFICE) VIC -37.9543 143.3437 27.36 10.37 7.97 5.23 0.69 1.0689085 ARARAT PRISON VIC -37.2775 142.9811 32.21 10.04 7.95 4.70 0.42 0.7690014 CAPE NELSON LIGHTHOUSE COMP VIC -38.4319 141.5419 8.81 3.27 2.52 1.58 0.14 0.3590015 CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.8556 143.5128 9.80 4.36 2.57 2.10 0.26 0.6290048 HEYWOOD FORESTRY VIC -38.1353 141.6319 20.62 5.34 7.05 3.96 0.88 1.1190103 HAMILTON RESEARCH STATION VIC -37.825 142.0644 25.85 8.29 6.97 4.36 0.74 1.0290135 CASTERTON SHOWGROUNDS VIC -37.5908 141.4131 34.72 8.65 11.30 5.41 1.54 1.6891009 BURNIE (ROUND HILL) TAS -41.0661 145.9431 0.26 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091049 LAUNCESTON (PUMPING STATION TAS -41.5 147.2 4.53 3.90 0.33 0.70 0.00 0.0091057 LOW HEAD (COMPARISON) TAS -41.0567 146.7883 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091080 QUOIBA TAS -41.2083 146.3467 0.19 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091091 SHEFFIELD TAS -41.3831 146.3278 1.03 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091092 SMITHTON (GRANT STREET) TAS -40.8492 145.1125 0.20 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091104 LAUNCESTON AIRPORT COMPARIS TAS -41.5397 147.2033 3.57 2.75 0.09 0.33 0.00 0.0091107 WYNYARD AIRPORT TAS -40.9972 145.7292 0.24 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091112 WYNYARD (JACKSON STREET) TAS -40.9942 145.7292 0.29 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091119 ERRIBA (CRADLE MOUNTAIN ROAD TAS -41.4506 146.1089 0.46 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091186 FORTHSIDE RESEARCH STATION TAS -41.2039 146.265 0.10 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091219 SCOTTSDALE (WEST MINSTONE R TAS -41.1708 147.4883 3.11 2.54 0.08 0.37 0.00 0.0091223 MARRAWAH TAS -40.9089 144.7094 0.44 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092003 BICHENO (COUNCIL DEPOT) TAS -41.8739 148.3036 1.55 1.68 0.40 0.83 0.00 0.0092027 ORFORD (AUBIN COURT) TAS -42.5519 147.8753 3.46 2.00 0.74 0.88 0.00 0.0092033 ST HELENS POST OFFICE TAS -41.3225 148.2489 5.93 3.28 0.93 1.03 0.00 0.0092038 SWANSEA POST OFFICE TAS -42.1242 148.0761 4.76 2.85 1.10 1.04 0.02 0.1492045 EDDYSTONE POINT TAS -40.9928 148.3467 0.84 1.08 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.0092094 SCAMANDER TAS -41.4639 148.2644 3.03 2.91 0.30 0.64 0.00 0.0093014 OATLANDS POST OFFICE TAS -42.3019 147.3694 3.56 2.70 0.39 0.80 0.00 0.0094008 HOBART AIRPORT TAS -42.8339 147.5033 6.86 2.96 1.35 1.16 0.04 0.2094010 CAPE BRUNY LIGHTHOUSE TAS -43.4892 147.1453 1.92 1.52 0.28 0.57 0.00 0.0094027 HASTINGS CHALET TAS -43.4144 146.8731 3.47 2.29 0.57 0.86 0.00 0.0094029 HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD) TAS -42.8897 147.3278 5.64 3.36 1.03 1.18 0.06 0.2694041 MAATSUYKER ISLAND LIGHTHOUS TAS -43.6578 146.2711 0.88 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094069 GROVE (COMPARISON) TAS -42.9831 147.0772 7.42 3.37 1.35 1.24 0.04 0.1994087 MOUNT WELLINGTON TAS -42.8967 147.235 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094137 GEEVESTON (CEMETERY ROAD) TAS -43.1639 146.9172 3.86 3.93 0.44 0.69 0.00 0.0095003 BUSHY PARK (BUSHY PARK ESTAT TAS -42.7097 146.8983 11.12 5.70 1.66 1.52 0.00 0.0096003 BUTLERS GORGE TAS -42.2811 146.2808 1.69 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0096015 LAKE ST CLAIR (HEC) TAS -42.1 146.2167 1.00 1.61 0.03 0.18 0.00 0.0097014 WARATAH (MOUNT ROAD) TAS -41.4372 145.5258 0.48 1.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0097034 QUEENSTOWN (7XS) TAS -42.0967 145.5447 6.14 3.55 0.52 1.02 0.00 0.0097053 STRATHGORDON VILLAGE TAS -42.7681 146.0461 2.92 2.43 0.08 0.28 0.00 0.0098001 CURRIE POST OFFICE TAS -39.9322 143.8486 3.10 2.07 0.43 0.71 0.00 0.0099005 FLINDERS ISLAND AIRPORT TAS -40.0928 148.0008 5.00 3.28 0.80 0.99 0.00 0.00200283 WILLIS ISLAND QLD -16.2878 149.9652 95.66 33.17 0.02 0.22 0.00 0.00200284 COCOS ISLAND AIRPORT WA -12.1892 96.8344 72.69 41.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200288 NORFOLK ISLAND AERO NSW -29.0389 167.9408 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200440 LORD HOWE ISLAND NSW -31.55 159.0833 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200790 CHRISTMAS ISLAND AERO WA -10.4528 105.6875 3.34 11.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300000 DAVIS ANT -68.5772 77.9725 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300001 MAWSON ANT -67.6014 62.8731 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300004 MACQUARIE ISLAND ANT -54.4994 158.9369 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300005 HEARD ISLAND (ATLAS COVE) ANT -53.019 73.3918 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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50 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 51

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

1007 TROUGHTON ISLAND WA -13.75 126.15 8.50 5.88 4.82 4.10 0.80 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001009 KURI BAY WA -15.49 124.52 10.52 9.07 8.24 7.60 22.31 11.26 6.21 3.64 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.001013 WYNDHAM WA -15.49 128.12 8.69 7.77 7.28 6.72 22.26 16.72 13.41 11.18 15.31 9.51 6.05 3.951021 KALUMBURU MISSION WA -14.30 126.64 9.29 8.49 7.78 7.35 30.10 19.87 14.78 11.44 2.81 0.67 0.22 0.132011 OLD HALLS CREEK WA -18.25 127.78 11.04 9.01 7.74 6.59 13.97 10.80 9.04 7.69 7.70 4.59 3.04 2.132012 HALLS CREEK AIRPORT WA -18.23 127.66 13.19 10.83 9.17 7.75 16.90 12.90 10.48 9.02 10.00 6.05 3.95 2.562014 KIMBERLEY RES.STATION WA -15.65 128.71 10.19 9.07 8.24 7.45 22.17 16.24 12.98 10.55 11.02 6.17 3.88 2.742032 WARMUN WA -17.02 128.22 11.20 9.56 8.64 7.56 18.93 14.40 11.62 9.80 13.78 8.87 6.62 4.843002 BROOME POST OFFICE WA -17.95 122.25 19.75 14.77 11.34 9.23 26.86 14.36 8.59 5.11 2.45 0.57 0.13 0.023003 BROOME AIRPORT WA -17.95 122.24 22.03 16.78 13.19 10.94 26.76 14.19 7.96 4.63 3.28 0.91 0.18 0.033006 FITZROY CROSSING COMP. WA -18.19 125.56 10.31 8.55 7.41 6.69 15.07 11.28 9.34 8.14 12.28 9.31 7.14 5.763007 DERBY POST OFFICE WA -17.30 123.63 7.91 6.58 5.88 5.36 23.82 16.09 12.21 9.52 5.97 1.79 0.55 0.123030 BIDYADANGA WA -18.68 121.78 16.42 12.84 11.02 9.32 29.06 19.18 13.04 8.98 7.26 2.96 1.00 0.243032 DERBY AERO WA -17.37 123.66 7.66 6.69 5.97 5.37 16.03 11.74 8.97 7.29 5.71 2.20 0.74 0.144002 PORT HEDLAND POST OFFICE WA -20.31 118.57 20.20 13.26 10.14 8.17 26.97 16.49 10.97 7.66 8.54 2.57 0.71 0.204019 MANDORA WA -19.74 120.84 15.87 11.82 9.91 8.13 24.33 18.02 13.64 10.71 14.11 7.13 3.29 1.424020 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON WA -21.18 119.75 12.68 9.95 8.12 6.96 12.11 9.68 8.29 7.37 14.55 11.23 9.31 7.694032 PORT HEDLAND AIRPORT WA -20.37 118.63 16.12 11.68 9.29 7.80 26.14 19.59 15.73 12.75 15.51 7.76 3.54 1.734035 ROEBOURNE WA -20.78 117.15 13.96 10.38 8.28 6.76 17.22 13.12 11.02 9.52 19.70 13.28 9.18 6.025007 LEARMONTH AIRPORT WA -22.24 114.10 15.56 11.34 8.81 7.31 21.66 15.44 11.81 9.66 13.09 6.88 3.94 2.095008 MARDIE WA -21.19 115.98 16.92 12.70 10.36 8.30 20.88 16.06 12.88 10.94 18.22 11.04 6.38 3.805016 ONSLOW WA -21.64 115.11 18.56 12.86 9.72 7.68 25.24 15.62 9.52 6.28 9.34 3.70 1.28 0.545017 ONSLOW AIRPORT WA -21.67 115.11 11.82 8.12 6.06 5.00 16.67 11.76 8.70 6.42 8.60 4.27 1.78 0.945026 WITTENOOM WA -22.24 118.34 11.09 8.41 7.07 5.98 12.79 10.32 8.71 7.46 12.09 8.39 6.30 4.865058 BARROW ISLAND WA -20.82 115.39 14.32 10.52 8.29 7.06 17.00 11.10 7.81 5.48 3.29 0.61 0.13 0.065069 PANNAWONICA WA -21.64 116.33 11.12 8.33 6.58 5.67 11.76 9.70 8.00 6.91 13.03 9.48 7.15 5.886011 CARNARVON AIRPORT WA -24.89 113.67 23.76 15.23 10.81 7.66 12.68 6.40 3.29 1.85 3.63 1.42 0.53 0.136022 GASCOYNE JUNCTION WA -25.05 115.21 13.09 9.47 7.11 5.47 12.93 9.49 7.16 6.18 10.64 7.44 5.40 4.116062 CARNARVON POST OFFICE WA -24.90 113.65 24.26 14.93 10.26 6.74 12.02 6.05 2.95 1.65 3.86 1.16 0.42 0.096072 EMU CREEK STATION WA -23.03 115.04 15.03 11.74 9.20 7.69 15.89 12.54 9.94 8.49 14.63 10.80 8.09 6.267045 MEEKATHARRA AIRPORT WA -26.61 118.54 18.35 13.28 10.42 8.54 18.09 12.77 9.88 7.93 9.54 5.65 3.60 2.337057 MOUNT MAGNET WA -28.06 117.85 14.51 10.28 8.05 6.31 14.74 10.41 7.69 5.97 8.97 4.97 3.05 1.857080 THREE RIVERS WA -25.13 119.15 13.14 9.89 7.78 6.28 13.11 9.86 7.64 6.31 9.31 5.86 3.94 2.927139 PAYNES FIND WA -29.27 117.68 18.69 13.28 9.84 7.75 17.72 12.34 8.66 6.03 9.50 4.66 2.44 1.227151 NEWMAN WA -23.37 119.73 12.94 10.41 8.59 7.38 15.16 11.63 9.53 8.22 10.19 7.19 5.06 3.47

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

52 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

8025 CARNAMAH WA -29.69 115.89 20.87 15.22 11.72 9.19 19.61 12.67 8.42 5.97 8.45 3.84 1.63 0.948028 NABAWA WA -28.50 114.79 24.69 17.59 13.02 9.80 18.72 12.10 7.15 4.49 7.18 2.95 1.28 0.678039 DALWALLINU COMPARISON WA -30.28 116.66 21.78 15.98 12.16 9.44 19.14 11.84 7.56 5.08 6.46 2.48 1.22 0.468050 GERALDTON PORT WA -28.78 114.60 20.65 11.93 7.28 4.24 11.89 5.26 2.52 1.09 2.85 0.83 0.13 0.078051 GERALDTON AIRPORT WA -28.80 114.70 25.29 17.39 10.85 7.23 15.74 8.62 4.83 2.62 5.30 1.89 0.95 0.448091 MOORA WA -30.64 116.01 17.13 11.87 8.08 6.00 13.95 7.87 4.58 2.66 4.32 1.63 0.63 0.268093 MORAWA WA -29.21 116.01 19.94 14.52 11.23 8.86 19.29 13.25 9.19 6.76 9.65 4.90 2.32 1.398095 MULLEWA WA -28.54 115.51 15.91 11.38 8.80 7.07 15.27 10.43 7.23 5.33 7.52 3.63 1.87 1.058137 WONGAN HILLS WA -30.89 116.72 23.54 16.63 12.05 9.05 18.49 10.98 6.39 3.88 5.85 2.32 0.88 0.398138 WONGAN HILLS RES.STATION WA -30.84 116.73 20.31 14.36 10.17 7.79 15.91 8.62 4.78 2.98 4.28 1.29 0.29 0.128151 WALEBING WA -30.67 116.14 23.36 16.84 12.10 9.52 18.59 10.74 6.02 3.60 6.48 2.14 0.86 0.348225 ENEABBA WA -29.82 115.27 22.03 15.91 11.89 8.94 19.00 11.57 7.69 5.06 9.97 4.20 1.74 0.898251 KALBARRI WA -27.71 114.17 27.00 19.30 13.59 9.81 18.05 10.35 5.86 3.54 5.81 2.30 0.97 0.439021 PERTH AIRPORT WA -31.93 115.98 22.05 14.76 9.94 6.73 13.05 6.32 3.08 1.63 2.65 0.79 0.27 0.089034 PERTH REGIONAL OFFICE WA -31.96 115.87 20.23 12.98 7.61 4.60 9.71 4.19 1.67 0.83 1.43 0.26 0.07 0.019037 BADGINGARRA RESEARCH STN WA -30.34 115.54 18.76 13.74 9.86 7.50 15.00 9.19 5.62 3.45 5.74 2.21 0.93 0.459038 ROTTNEST ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE WA -32.01 115.50 11.17 5.20 2.30 1.20 3.83 0.90 0.17 0.03 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.009053 PEARCE RAAF WA -31.67 116.02 14.24 9.61 6.48 4.64 9.64 5.02 2.59 1.35 2.97 1.00 0.27 0.119064 KWINANA BP REFINERY WA -32.23 115.76 16.98 10.21 5.37 3.10 6.46 2.88 1.08 0.37 0.75 0.13 0.02 0.009111 KARNET WA -32.44 116.07 19.29 12.76 8.48 5.71 8.81 3.95 1.88 0.98 1.05 0.17 0.02 0.009114 LANCELIN WA -31.02 115.33 21.74 13.10 7.19 3.93 10.60 4.86 1.93 0.83 2.10 0.40 0.10 0.009131 JURIEN BAY WA -30.31 115.03 23.08 14.39 8.29 4.79 11.71 5.21 2.37 0.87 2.18 0.42 0.16 0.039500 ALBANY WA -35.03 117.88 3.25 0.50 0.06 0.02 0.94 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.009510 BRIDGETOWN COMPARISON WA -33.96 116.14 20.50 13.03 7.85 4.63 8.81 3.81 1.49 0.61 0.96 0.17 0.04 0.019518 CAPE LEEUWIN WA -34.37 115.14 2.77 0.53 0.07 0.02 0.57 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.009519 CAPE NATURALISTE WA -33.54 115.02 8.06 3.88 2.00 1.12 1.48 0.38 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.009534 DONNYBROOK WA -33.57 115.82 20.00 13.18 8.81 5.74 9.31 4.12 1.74 0.88 0.85 0.17 0.02 0.019538 DWELLINGUP WA -32.71 116.06 18.40 11.66 7.70 4.86 7.88 3.18 1.24 0.64 0.52 0.08 0.00 0.009541 ESPERANCE POST OFFICE WA -33.85 121.88 17.48 3.89 0.68 0.19 7.89 0.84 0.10 0.00 1.84 0.08 0.02 0.009573 MANJIMUP WA -34.25 116.15 15.98 7.88 3.78 1.82 4.80 1.42 0.54 0.14 0.38 0.04 0.00 0.009581 MOUNT BARKER WA -34.63 117.64 14.83 5.72 1.78 0.74 5.18 1.31 0.27 0.11 0.52 0.06 0.00 0.009592 PEMBERTON WA -34.45 116.04 14.16 6.54 3.00 1.36 3.88 0.96 0.36 0.14 0.36 0.02 0.00 0.009631 ESPERANCE DOWNS RESEARCH WA -33.60 121.78 23.69 9.80 4.20 2.09 10.74 2.83 0.54 0.26 2.20 0.11 0.03 0.039642 WOKALUP WA -33.13 115.88 18.14 12.23 8.34 5.69 8.60 3.71 2.06 1.23 0.71 0.17 0.00 0.009741 ALBANY AIRPORT WA -34.94 117.80 10.95 3.19 0.62 0.26 3.52 0.26 0.07 0.00 0.74 0.05 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 53

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

9754 METTLER WA -34.60 118.55 12.45 3.48 0.79 0.24 4.17 0.48 0.07 0.00 0.83 0.03 0.00 0.009789 ESPERANCE WA -33.83 121.89 21.71 6.79 1.82 0.63 9.47 1.34 0.18 0.00 2.47 0.13 0.00 0.009842 JARRAHWOOD WA -33.80 115.67 18.94 11.59 6.81 4.06 6.50 2.50 1.03 0.47 0.47 0.09 0.00 0.0010007 BENCUBBIN WA -30.81 117.86 23.08 16.00 11.76 9.30 18.14 10.44 6.30 4.08 6.20 2.20 0.76 0.2810035 CUNDERDIN WA -31.65 117.23 23.96 16.93 11.73 8.91 18.80 10.45 5.61 3.54 5.86 1.82 0.55 0.2910058 GOOMALLING WA -31.30 116.83 14.65 10.03 7.25 5.68 11.78 6.65 3.65 2.30 3.98 1.48 0.48 0.1010073 KELLERBERRIN WA -31.62 117.72 24.26 16.94 11.75 9.00 18.86 10.29 5.39 3.19 5.73 1.78 0.48 0.1910092 MERREDIN WA -31.48 118.28 24.15 16.80 11.61 8.88 18.39 9.39 5.27 3.27 5.34 1.49 0.54 0.1710093 MERREDIN RESEARCH STATION WA -31.50 118.22 24.00 16.55 11.79 9.11 17.07 9.18 5.14 3.14 4.52 1.31 0.34 0.1410111 NORTHAM WA -31.65 116.66 22.80 16.35 11.96 9.08 18.44 10.98 6.29 3.87 6.28 1.94 0.83 0.2810144 YORK POST OFFICE WA -31.88 116.76 22.38 16.33 11.87 8.93 17.34 10.03 5.67 3.11 4.89 1.59 0.72 0.2810515 BEVERLEY WA -32.11 116.92 22.64 16.44 12.10 9.15 18.15 10.77 5.85 3.36 5.82 1.97 0.54 0.2610524 BROOKTON WA -32.37 117.01 21.66 15.17 10.39 7.44 14.73 7.51 3.34 1.88 3.61 0.95 0.22 0.1010536 CORRIGIN WA -32.33 117.87 23.49 16.10 11.00 7.51 14.95 7.31 3.47 1.66 3.15 0.63 0.17 0.0810568 HYDEN WA -32.44 118.90 24.43 16.95 12.11 8.81 18.32 9.76 4.97 2.65 6.32 1.89 0.46 0.0810579 KATANNING COMPARISON WA -33.69 117.56 22.83 13.41 8.09 4.75 10.69 4.01 1.30 0.52 1.27 0.25 0.08 0.0310582 KOJONUP WA -33.84 117.15 18.72 9.83 5.21 2.90 7.66 2.34 0.86 0.41 0.72 0.21 0.07 0.0010592 LAKE GRACE COMPARISON WA -33.10 118.46 25.33 15.67 9.94 6.31 13.84 5.67 2.37 0.96 2.49 0.53 0.10 0.0210612 NAREMBEEN WA -32.07 118.40 22.36 15.19 10.83 8.29 16.12 8.31 4.50 2.40 4.31 1.21 0.33 0.0710614 NARROGIN WA -32.93 117.18 20.73 13.00 8.39 5.19 9.88 4.20 1.59 0.67 1.07 0.23 0.10 0.0410622 ONGERUP WA -33.96 118.49 23.46 11.39 5.12 2.10 9.80 2.51 0.66 0.29 1.20 0.15 0.00 0.0010626 PINGELLY WA -32.53 117.08 23.43 15.49 10.54 6.73 12.92 5.84 2.43 1.24 2.32 0.54 0.16 0.0810633 RAVENSTHORPE WA -33.58 120.05 25.93 12.60 5.49 2.40 11.60 3.31 0.91 0.31 2.31 0.36 0.04 0.0010647 WAGIN WA -33.31 117.34 22.81 14.16 8.68 5.57 11.54 4.32 1.46 0.65 1.78 0.38 0.14 0.0010648 WANDERING COMPARISON WA -32.68 116.68 21.69 14.77 10.10 6.86 12.49 6.15 2.75 1.35 1.91 0.50 0.15 0.0711003 EUCLA WA -31.68 128.88 23.44 12.12 4.08 1.34 12.92 4.56 1.14 0.30 4.78 0.96 0.14 0.0611004 FORREST AERO WA -30.84 128.11 32.23 20.27 12.92 8.65 20.65 9.38 4.60 2.58 7.54 2.17 0.58 0.2711017 BALLADONIA WA -32.46 123.87 28.33 16.98 10.62 6.71 17.43 6.83 2.74 1.14 6.12 1.07 0.31 0.0712022 CASHMERE DOWNS WA -28.97 119.57 23.13 16.10 11.37 8.67 19.63 12.43 8.23 5.87 7.20 3.20 1.50 0.9012038 KALGOORLIE-BOULDER AIRPOR WA -30.78 121.45 27.60 18.37 12.38 9.19 19.29 9.40 4.81 2.60 5.91 1.68 0.57 0.2412039 KALGOORLIE POST OFFICE WA -30.75 121.47 27.28 18.85 13.20 9.65 20.78 11.43 5.96 3.61 6.70 2.04 0.76 0.3912046 LEONORA WA -28.88 121.33 24.46 18.00 13.52 10.62 22.60 14.90 10.20 7.28 11.28 5.76 3.02 1.4812052 MENZIES WA -29.69 121.03 24.08 17.46 12.41 9.90 21.36 13.67 8.97 5.59 8.44 3.74 1.56 0.6712065 NORSEMAN WA -32.20 121.78 28.64 17.94 11.94 8.28 16.18 6.52 3.10 1.64 3.66 0.74 0.20 0.0812071 SALMON GUMS RES.STN. WA -32.99 121.62 25.95 14.07 7.99 4.37 13.03 4.37 1.61 0.61 3.12 0.29 0.07 0.0312074 SOUTHERN CROSS WA -31.23 119.33 24.26 16.89 12.27 9.40 19.94 11.57 7.05 4.54 6.50 2.43 0.92 0.42

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

54 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

12090 YEELIRRIE WA -27.28 120.09 21.00 15.53 11.68 9.68 20.32 13.65 9.56 7.65 10.35 5.88 3.41 2.3213011 WARBURTON AIRFIELD WA -26.13 126.58 9.32 7.34 5.74 4.71 10.16 7.16 5.29 4.05 5.76 3.39 2.05 1.3413012 WILUNA WA -26.59 120.23 18.16 13.64 10.60 8.96 19.30 13.64 10.04 7.86 10.88 6.64 4.22 2.8013017 GILES METEOROLOGICAL OFFIC WA -25.03 128.30 17.14 13.53 10.90 9.20 18.18 13.71 10.51 8.29 7.55 4.16 2.29 1.2913030 TELFER AERO WA -21.71 122.23 12.70 9.70 7.30 6.03 14.70 11.67 9.58 8.24 14.06 10.12 7.76 5.9414008 CAPE DON NT -11.32 131.77 25.78 16.56 13.13 10.84 1.84 0.31 0.22 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014015 DARWIN AIRPORT NT -12.42 130.89 19.74 16.23 13.82 11.91 7.35 1.88 0.62 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014016 DARWIN POST OFFICE NT -12.40 130.80 16.59 13.54 11.71 10.30 21.25 8.52 4.73 2.48 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0014042 OENPELLI NT -12.33 133.06 9.30 8.07 7.30 6.55 19.55 11.32 7.75 6.16 0.89 0.36 0.09 0.0714090 MIDDLE POINT NT -12.58 131.31 11.78 10.09 8.94 8.13 19.81 11.38 7.53 5.66 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.0014198 JABIRU AIRPORT NT -12.66 132.89 7.22 6.47 5.89 5.58 20.92 13.17 9.50 7.64 1.19 0.44 0.33 0.1714400 MANINGRIDA NT -12.05 134.23 17.31 13.88 12.02 10.50 6.10 1.83 0.76 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014401 WARRUWI NT -11.65 133.38 21.24 14.61 11.32 9.02 6.02 1.93 0.85 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014402 MILINGIMBI NT -12.12 134.91 13.18 9.77 7.95 6.82 5.03 1.74 0.74 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014504 GALIWINKU NT -12.03 135.56 21.47 16.74 14.16 12.29 7.13 2.50 1.03 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014508 GOVE AIRPORT NT -12.27 136.82 16.56 10.85 8.29 6.90 2.98 1.17 0.61 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0014609 NGUKURR NT -14.73 134.73 3.84 3.20 2.73 2.44 5.29 3.78 2.87 2.20 2.20 1.24 0.89 0.6014612 LARRIMAH NT -15.57 133.21 13.19 11.36 10.05 8.71 19.24 13.38 10.90 9.17 5.33 2.79 1.60 0.9014626 DALY WATERS AWS NT -16.26 133.38 7.74 6.74 5.90 5.15 10.47 7.74 6.47 5.32 4.06 2.25 1.35 0.7814703 CENTRE ISLAND NT -15.74 136.82 16.06 10.30 8.18 7.09 16.24 8.97 5.70 4.00 0.18 0.09 0.00 0.0014704 MCARTHUR RIVER MINE NT -16.44 136.08 9.16 7.71 7.03 6.29 14.42 10.16 7.92 6.58 6.32 3.42 2.13 1.3214707 WOLLOGORANG NT -17.21 137.95 12.64 10.55 9.36 8.42 17.61 12.64 9.64 7.97 5.03 2.52 1.36 0.7314825 VICTORIA RIVER DOWNS NT -16.40 131.01 12.00 10.43 9.12 7.93 19.43 14.40 11.81 9.88 8.76 5.36 3.21 2.1014829 LAJAMANU NT -18.33 130.64 5.20 4.40 3.80 3.23 6.25 4.80 4.03 3.55 4.38 2.58 1.88 1.2814840 WAVE HILL NT -17.39 131.12 13.44 11.65 10.26 9.00 19.41 15.15 12.74 10.91 12.15 7.71 5.71 4.3214901 DOUGLAS RIVER NT -13.83 131.19 4.00 3.59 3.31 3.08 9.79 6.49 4.59 3.59 0.92 0.31 0.10 0.0814903 KATHERINE AVIATION MUSEUM NT -14.44 132.27 4.10 3.70 3.33 3.05 7.82 5.31 4.36 3.61 0.97 0.36 0.15 0.1015085 BRUNETTE DOWNS NT -18.64 135.95 14.04 11.92 10.28 8.70 16.08 12.42 10.48 8.58 9.40 6.28 4.12 2.9015087 TENNANT CREEK POST OFFICE NT -19.65 134.19 17.07 13.82 11.45 9.92 18.98 15.05 11.95 9.87 10.57 6.25 3.88 2.4315135 TENNANT CREEK AIRPORT NT -19.64 134.18 17.13 13.63 11.11 9.47 18.97 14.79 11.92 9.58 7.55 4.16 2.58 1.5815511 CURTIN SPRINGS NT -25.31 131.76 19.38 14.88 11.95 10.07 20.29 14.60 10.76 8.50 10.74 6.55 4.19 2.6215528 YUENDUMU NT -22.26 131.80 15.10 12.24 10.14 8.76 15.93 12.14 9.48 7.50 5.19 2.81 1.69 1.0515540 ALICE SPRINGS POST OFFICE NT -23.71 133.87 21.61 17.01 13.47 10.76 20.59 14.84 10.59 7.99 7.63 4.08 2.00 1.0815590 ALICE SPRINGS AIRPORT NT -23.80 133.89 21.56 16.35 12.92 10.68 20.21 14.45 10.48 8.02 7.00 3.33 1.65 1.1215602 JERVOIS NT -22.95 136.14 19.79 15.08 12.03 10.08 20.74 14.95 11.51 9.18 12.69 7.90 5.18 3.44

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 55

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

16001 WOOMERA AERODROME SA -31.16 136.81 24.90 17.78 13.40 10.21 18.57 11.09 7.03 4.52 6.43 2.67 1.28 0.6216032 NONNING SA -32.52 136.49 25.32 17.58 12.45 9.21 16.50 9.32 5.87 3.61 5.00 2.29 0.79 0.4716044 TARCOOLA SA -30.71 134.57 25.46 18.57 13.70 10.49 21.00 13.46 8.78 5.97 10.08 4.54 2.35 1.3816065 ANDAMOOKA SA -30.45 137.17 23.11 17.03 13.32 10.68 20.63 13.63 9.74 7.26 10.05 5.13 2.82 1.6617005 LEIGH CREEK AERO SA -30.47 138.41 20.90 15.62 12.34 9.93 17.17 11.38 7.69 5.31 6.03 2.86 1.62 1.0017024 MARREE (FARINA) SA -30.07 138.27 21.70 15.97 12.10 9.60 19.37 12.53 8.93 6.53 7.93 4.07 2.13 1.4317031 MARREE COMPARISON SA -29.65 138.06 20.71 15.74 12.43 10.22 20.10 14.78 10.96 8.43 12.28 7.25 4.62 2.9417043 OODNADATTA AIRPORT SA -27.56 135.45 18.78 13.52 10.73 8.85 19.28 13.24 9.60 7.10 11.03 5.91 3.54 2.4017099 ARKAROOLA SA -30.31 139.34 25.00 18.72 13.90 10.48 17.93 10.86 6.69 3.90 6.28 2.31 0.86 0.3818012 CEDUNA AMO SA -32.13 133.70 28.84 15.25 6.96 3.53 16.99 6.72 2.66 1.01 6.53 1.59 0.46 0.1318014 CLEVE SA -33.70 136.49 23.32 12.02 5.84 2.74 12.18 4.42 1.80 0.72 2.98 0.70 0.16 0.0418040 KIMBA SA -33.14 136.41 24.98 16.50 10.70 7.30 14.25 7.75 4.18 2.28 3.68 1.43 0.48 0.2318044 KYANCUTTA SA -33.13 135.56 28.75 19.83 13.13 9.12 19.19 10.79 5.69 3.26 7.74 3.09 1.23 0.5818052 MINNIPA AGRICULTURAL CENTR SA -32.84 135.15 25.17 16.72 11.03 7.47 15.78 8.42 4.53 2.67 4.72 1.81 0.61 0.2218069 ELLISTON SA -33.65 134.89 18.96 8.07 3.22 1.22 8.36 2.31 0.71 0.22 1.31 0.04 0.02 0.0018070 PORT LINCOLN SA -34.72 135.86 14.16 3.78 1.42 0.61 4.94 0.67 0.16 0.05 0.93 0.07 0.02 0.0018079 STREAKY BAY SA -32.80 134.21 23.66 14.26 7.94 4.84 11.80 5.68 2.68 1.28 3.12 0.86 0.28 0.0618103 WHYALLA (NORRIE) SA -33.03 137.53 26.89 14.09 6.70 3.66 15.68 5.61 2.11 0.75 5.14 1.34 0.23 0.0518110 COOK SA -30.61 130.41 31.53 21.25 14.93 10.63 23.48 12.65 6.75 3.63 10.38 3.85 1.53 0.5818115 NEPTUNE ISLAND SA -35.34 136.12 1.49 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0018139 POLDA (GUM VIEW) SA -33.51 135.29 25.53 16.11 9.69 6.17 15.28 7.72 3.53 1.97 5.78 1.81 0.58 0.1719017 HAWKER SA -31.88 138.44 21.34 15.73 12.61 9.88 14.56 9.78 6.05 3.83 3.61 1.83 0.93 0.5419062 YONGALA SA -33.03 138.75 20.28 14.12 9.66 6.84 10.06 5.20 2.90 1.72 1.34 0.42 0.22 0.0219066 PORT AUGUSTA POWER STATIO SA -32.53 137.79 27.68 18.50 11.24 7.50 17.94 8.62 4.18 2.06 6.09 2.18 0.82 0.2420026 YUNTA SA -32.58 139.56 23.97 17.19 12.31 8.84 15.72 9.25 4.97 3.19 4.81 2.03 0.78 0.2521014 CLARE POST OFFICE SA -33.84 138.61 18.22 11.22 7.03 4.73 8.30 3.89 1.81 0.86 0.95 0.30 0.08 0.0321043 PORT PIRIE NYRSTAR COMPARIS SA -33.17 138.01 24.78 16.38 10.80 7.28 15.08 8.16 4.42 2.54 4.06 1.72 0.72 0.3421046 SNOWTOWN SA -33.78 138.21 25.23 16.70 10.15 6.82 14.76 7.38 3.78 1.96 3.67 1.38 0.48 0.1422006 KADINA SA -33.96 137.70 22.90 14.71 9.42 6.13 12.98 5.96 3.19 1.75 2.98 1.08 0.29 0.0622008 MAITLAND SA -34.37 137.67 21.08 12.58 7.02 4.14 9.60 4.32 1.96 1.02 1.80 0.50 0.08 0.0422015 PRICE SA -34.30 138.00 20.19 8.45 3.64 1.57 11.19 2.90 0.79 0.17 3.55 0.69 0.10 0.0022018 WAROOKA SA -34.99 137.40 16.95 8.52 3.71 1.83 6.17 2.29 0.88 0.26 0.60 0.07 0.00 0.0022801 CAPE BORDA COMPARISON SA -35.75 136.59 5.41 2.43 1.08 0.37 0.57 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0022803 CAPE WILLOUGHBY SA -35.84 138.13 6.58 2.00 0.28 0.10 1.53 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.0022807 KINGSCOTE SA -35.66 137.64 7.47 1.89 0.44 0.18 1.60 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

56 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

23000 ADELAIDE WEST TERRACE SA -34.93 138.59 21.01 11.42 6.08 3.88 9.49 3.82 1.66 0.87 1.77 0.42 0.15 0.0723013 PARAFIELD AIRPORT SA -34.80 138.63 16.49 9.69 5.56 3.62 8.76 3.87 1.72 0.84 2.04 0.54 0.18 0.0623015 PENFIELD WEAPONS RESEARCH SA -34.73 138.65 11.84 7.68 4.61 3.00 6.39 2.79 1.39 0.89 1.24 0.42 0.13 0.0323020 ROSEWORTHY AGRIC COLLEGE SA -34.53 138.69 20.30 12.38 7.38 4.78 11.70 4.85 2.33 1.20 2.70 0.83 0.18 0.1023034 ADELAIDE AIRPORT SA -34.95 138.52 19.54 10.10 5.44 3.06 8.38 3.08 1.23 0.58 1.23 0.15 0.04 0.0023037 ADELAIDE (PARAFIELD PLANT IN SA -34.78 138.62 21.81 14.00 8.39 5.32 11.74 5.52 2.71 1.42 2.48 0.87 0.19 0.0323083 EDINBURGH RAAF SA -34.71 138.62 22.69 13.11 8.06 5.23 12.94 5.46 2.74 1.34 3.46 0.97 0.26 0.0923090 ADELAIDE (KENT TOWN) SA -34.92 138.62 22.00 12.70 7.67 5.13 10.73 4.67 2.27 0.97 2.30 0.53 0.07 0.0323321 NURIOOTPA COMPARISON SA -34.48 139.00 19.73 11.83 7.12 4.07 8.66 3.63 1.76 0.80 1.22 0.24 0.00 0.0023343 ROSEDALE (TURRETFIELD RESE SA -34.55 138.83 22.44 14.07 8.76 5.96 13.18 6.16 3.11 1.56 3.56 1.20 0.33 0.1823703 BELAIR (KALYRA) SA -35.00 138.61 15.61 7.39 3.45 1.58 4.97 1.73 0.55 0.18 0.30 0.12 0.00 0.0023733 MOUNT BARKER SA -35.06 138.85 17.74 9.76 5.10 2.78 6.72 2.86 1.14 0.38 0.68 0.04 0.00 0.0023747 STRATHALBYN SA -35.26 138.89 21.30 11.30 5.36 2.43 10.43 3.80 1.45 0.45 1.93 0.45 0.07 0.0223751 VICTOR HARBOR COMPARISON SA -35.56 138.62 14.92 4.83 1.22 0.50 6.39 1.25 0.22 0.03 1.28 0.17 0.03 0.0023801 LENSWOOD RESEARCH CENTRE SA -34.95 138.81 13.90 6.77 3.29 1.55 3.19 1.39 0.45 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0024016 RENMARK SA -34.17 140.75 24.77 16.25 10.82 7.84 15.68 8.18 4.41 2.34 4.59 1.64 0.70 0.3424511 EUDUNDA SA -34.18 139.08 19.31 11.52 7.24 4.36 8.60 3.62 1.86 0.71 1.29 0.29 0.05 0.0024518 MENINGIE SA -35.69 139.34 17.51 7.98 3.39 1.46 7.27 2.29 0.66 0.29 1.00 0.15 0.02 0.0024521 MURRAY BRIDGE COMPARISON SA -35.12 139.26 25.17 13.73 7.24 4.00 13.02 5.39 2.32 0.95 3.39 0.88 0.12 0.0725507 KEITH SA -36.10 140.36 21.76 13.27 8.09 5.42 11.89 5.42 2.67 1.29 3.16 0.96 0.18 0.0725509 LAMEROO COMPARISON SA -35.33 140.52 23.14 14.72 9.34 6.42 13.00 6.46 3.46 1.76 3.62 1.20 0.36 0.1426005 CAPE NORTHUMBERLAND SA -38.06 140.67 9.32 2.96 0.74 0.15 3.55 0.60 0.13 0.00 0.47 0.02 0.00 0.0026013 KYBYBOLITE RESEARCH CENTR SA -36.88 140.93 17.72 10.34 5.79 3.28 7.83 3.14 1.31 0.55 1.45 0.38 0.03 0.0026019 MOUNT BURR FOREST RESERVE SA -37.56 140.42 13.62 6.16 2.46 1.11 5.49 1.73 0.46 0.14 0.92 0.14 0.05 0.0026020 MOUNT GAMBIER POST OFFICE SA -37.83 140.78 13.00 4.98 1.60 0.72 4.23 0.91 0.42 0.19 0.37 0.12 0.05 0.0026021 MOUNT GAMBIER AERO SA -37.75 140.77 14.46 6.03 2.57 1.09 5.71 1.62 0.51 0.18 0.83 0.08 0.02 0.0026023 NARACOORTE SA -36.96 140.74 18.66 10.89 5.68 3.37 9.08 3.63 1.32 0.63 1.53 0.42 0.08 0.0026026 ROBE COMPARISON SA -37.16 139.76 5.19 1.41 0.52 0.23 0.54 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0027005 COEN POST OFFICE QLD -13.94 143.20 9.49 6.37 4.83 3.85 2.68 1.61 0.88 0.46 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.0027006 COEN AIRPORT EVAP QLD -13.76 143.12 27.44 18.91 14.32 11.68 10.18 5.91 3.56 2.21 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0027022 THURSDAY ISLAND MO QLD -10.59 142.21 27.76 16.45 11.76 8.95 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0027042 WEIPA EASTERN AVE QLD -12.63 141.88 16.59 13.68 11.71 10.03 12.68 6.65 4.35 3.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0028004 PALMERVILLE QLD -16.00 144.08 8.96 6.95 5.88 5.21 8.75 5.47 4.16 3.42 0.62 0.26 0.11 0.0428008 LOCKHART RIVER AIRPORT QLD -12.79 143.31 21.43 14.21 11.50 9.24 3.14 1.40 0.57 0.31 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0029004 BURKETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -17.74 139.55 19.73 14.46 11.57 9.44 22.80 14.36 9.96 7.15 2.74 0.89 0.33 0.12

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 57

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

29009 CLONCURRY AERO QLD -20.67 140.51 16.97 12.80 10.46 8.91 18.23 14.17 11.34 9.46 10.11 5.80 3.94 2.4629012 CROYDON TOWNSHIP QLD -18.20 142.24 15.56 12.96 11.40 9.89 20.24 14.80 11.58 9.64 5.24 2.62 1.56 0.8929025 JULIA CREEK POST OFFICE QLD -20.66 141.75 16.97 13.58 10.94 9.11 18.64 13.94 11.50 9.28 10.81 7.08 4.56 2.9429038 KOWANYAMA AIRPORT QLD -15.48 141.75 13.00 10.76 9.73 8.95 15.85 9.10 6.73 5.34 0.54 0.10 0.02 0.0229039 MORNINGTON ISLAND QLD -16.66 139.18 19.43 13.43 10.77 8.91 7.34 3.00 1.40 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0029041 NORMANTON POST OFFICE QLD -17.67 141.07 15.86 13.34 11.57 10.27 25.34 17.43 13.48 10.45 3.61 1.32 0.55 0.3029090 TOORAK RESEARCH STATION QLD -21.03 141.80 12.26 8.92 7.33 6.13 13.74 10.36 8.28 7.00 8.82 5.03 3.08 2.0529127 MOUNT ISA AERO QLD -20.68 139.49 17.73 13.70 11.30 9.45 19.35 14.80 11.85 9.58 7.65 4.20 2.48 1.4829141 CLONCURRY AIRPORT QLD -20.67 140.51 7.10 5.34 4.31 3.62 8.55 6.79 5.41 4.59 5.28 3.28 2.21 1.6230018 GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -18.29 143.55 18.16 13.82 11.42 9.94 19.29 12.78 9.52 7.58 2.35 1.05 0.54 0.3530024 HUGHENDEN POST OFFICE QLD -20.84 144.20 17.91 13.69 10.94 8.97 18.49 13.94 10.71 8.63 4.20 2.20 1.26 0.5430045 RICHMOND POST OFFICE QLD -20.73 143.14 17.82 13.88 11.18 9.32 18.89 14.18 11.56 9.68 9.33 5.85 3.66 2.5331010 CAIRNS POST OFFICE QLD -16.93 145.78 23.11 15.38 11.78 9.73 3.02 0.98 0.51 0.27 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.0031011 CAIRNS AERO QLD -16.87 145.75 24.42 16.20 12.68 10.25 1.95 0.72 0.22 0.09 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0031016 COOKTOWN POST OFFICE QLD -15.46 145.25 18.47 12.07 9.27 7.70 2.97 1.17 0.47 0.20 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0031017 COOKTOWN MISSION STRIP QLD -15.45 145.19 6.46 4.20 3.32 2.81 1.64 0.78 0.42 0.19 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.0031029 HERBERTON WHITE ST QLD -17.39 145.39 16.56 10.12 6.74 4.24 0.68 0.21 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0031034 KAIRI RESEARCH STATION QLD -17.22 145.57 13.14 7.88 5.10 3.29 0.76 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0031037 LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE QLD -16.38 145.56 20.43 13.95 11.30 9.80 3.48 1.28 0.73 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0031066 MAREEBA QWRC QLD -17.00 145.43 15.63 9.66 7.31 5.91 3.74 1.71 0.83 0.40 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0031108 WALKAMIN DPI QLD -17.13 145.43 21.44 14.77 10.64 7.85 2.74 1.10 0.31 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0032004 CARDWELL MARINE PDE QLD -18.26 146.02 23.30 15.52 12.16 9.96 2.94 1.16 0.50 0.26 0.08 0.04 0.00 0.0032005 CAPE CLEVELAND LIGHTHOUSE QLD -19.18 147.02 19.57 13.53 10.13 7.97 0.87 0.20 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0032025 INNISFAIL QLD -17.52 146.03 17.44 11.26 8.30 6.56 1.30 0.60 0.24 0.10 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.0032037 SOUTH JOHNSTONE EXP STN QLD -17.61 146.00 19.50 13.50 10.93 8.90 2.69 1.19 0.67 0.36 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.0032040 TOWNSVILLE AERO QLD -19.25 146.77 22.21 14.15 10.84 8.82 2.25 0.72 0.24 0.09 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.0032078 INGHAM COMPOSITE QLD -18.65 146.18 20.28 14.38 11.59 9.95 6.51 3.59 1.79 1.05 0.31 0.10 0.08 0.0333001 BURDEKIN SHIRE COUNCIL QLD -19.58 147.41 19.33 12.29 9.38 7.58 4.68 1.73 0.88 0.53 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.0233002 AYR DPI RESEARCH STN QLD -19.62 147.38 18.71 12.62 9.85 8.00 3.45 1.04 0.38 0.20 0.18 0.07 0.00 0.0033013 COLLINSVILLE POST OFFICE QLD -20.55 147.85 18.42 13.06 10.70 9.18 12.94 7.26 4.72 3.02 0.54 0.20 0.08 0.0433045 MACKAY AERO QLD -21.17 149.18 6.67 4.16 2.91 2.18 0.40 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0033046 MACKAY POST OFFICE QLD -21.15 149.18 17.47 11.02 7.98 5.93 1.25 0.28 0.12 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0033047 TE KOWAI EXP STN QLD -21.16 149.12 19.32 12.46 9.17 7.06 2.69 1.00 0.47 0.25 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.0033058 PINE ISLET LIGHTHOUSE QLD -21.67 150.22 16.93 11.24 7.55 5.76 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0033065 ST LAWRENCE POST OFFICE QLD -22.35 149.54 21.92 13.82 10.48 8.58 3.20 1.00 0.30 0.12 0.18 0.04 0.02 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

58 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

33119 MACKAY M.O QLD -21.12 149.22 15.13 10.19 7.15 5.17 0.50 0.15 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0034002 CHARTERS TOWERS POST OFFI QLD -20.08 146.26 19.55 14.01 11.29 9.49 15.25 9.63 6.54 4.57 1.80 0.76 0.41 0.1335019 CLERMONT SIRIUS ST QLD -22.82 147.64 18.44 14.60 12.07 10.18 16.00 10.84 7.73 5.56 1.80 0.69 0.33 0.1335027 EMERALD POST OFFICE QLD -23.53 148.16 19.62 14.29 11.64 9.72 16.13 10.76 7.62 5.38 2.61 1.21 0.62 0.2635065 SPRINGSURE DAME ST QLD -24.12 148.09 16.71 12.45 10.19 8.45 12.57 7.31 4.57 3.07 1.43 0.40 0.14 0.0735069 TAMBO POST OFFICE QLD -24.88 146.26 18.48 13.66 11.34 9.54 15.54 10.90 7.60 5.76 2.30 0.92 0.46 0.2435070 TAROOM POST OFFICE QLD -25.64 149.80 20.70 15.16 12.44 10.02 13.90 8.46 5.82 3.88 1.38 0.56 0.20 0.0435149 BRIGALOW RESEARCH STN QLD -24.84 149.80 19.41 14.23 10.95 9.13 12.00 6.82 4.15 2.74 0.85 0.26 0.05 0.0336007 BARCALDINE POST OFFICE QLD -23.55 145.29 16.80 12.49 10.02 8.91 18.42 13.31 10.42 7.82 4.80 2.22 1.16 0.6036026 ISISFORD POST OFFICE QLD -24.26 144.44 14.54 10.70 8.76 7.38 16.60 12.46 9.56 7.48 7.96 4.14 2.50 1.5636030 LONGREACH POST OFFICE QLD -23.45 144.25 16.58 12.12 9.80 8.38 17.53 13.21 10.72 8.75 10.13 6.00 3.89 2.6636031 LONGREACH AERO QLD -23.44 144.28 15.90 11.95 9.66 8.41 18.56 14.12 11.44 9.12 9.29 4.83 3.20 2.1236143 BLACKALL TOWNSHIP QLD -24.42 145.47 17.05 12.84 10.72 9.30 18.60 13.33 9.95 7.93 4.72 2.35 1.53 0.9837010 CAMOOWEAL TOWNSHIP QLD -19.92 138.12 16.62 13.40 11.16 9.34 19.28 14.85 12.40 10.18 11.56 7.25 4.74 3.3537043 URANDANGI QLD -21.61 138.31 18.34 14.32 11.34 9.40 19.72 15.74 12.92 10.64 14.56 9.78 6.88 4.6637051 WINTON POST OFFICE QLD -22.39 143.04 15.72 12.06 9.56 8.20 18.64 14.16 11.52 9.58 10.72 6.48 4.04 2.8838002 BIRDSVILLE POLICE STATION QLD -25.90 139.35 19.02 14.09 11.49 9.77 21.11 15.55 11.98 9.47 15.06 9.36 6.26 4.3838003 BOULIA AIRPORT QLD -22.91 139.90 18.06 13.51 11.08 9.02 19.24 14.68 11.65 9.65 13.61 8.85 5.77 4.0938024 WINDORAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.42 142.66 15.52 11.52 9.25 7.73 17.50 12.80 9.84 7.95 10.66 6.43 4.34 3.0539004 BARALABA POST OFFICE QLD -24.18 149.81 20.00 15.17 12.68 10.51 17.29 10.85 7.22 4.80 1.37 0.54 0.20 0.0539006 BILOELA DPI QLD -24.38 150.52 20.93 15.47 12.47 10.13 12.40 6.87 4.07 2.20 0.50 0.17 0.07 0.0339015 BUNDABERG POST OFFICE QLD -24.87 152.35 20.48 11.95 8.13 5.96 1.35 0.36 0.11 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0039023 CAPE CAPRICORN LIGHTHOUSE QLD -23.48 151.23 3.93 1.10 0.40 0.13 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039039 GAYNDAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.63 151.61 23.72 17.12 13.27 10.75 11.95 6.64 3.71 2.24 1.12 0.39 0.15 0.0739059 LADY ELLIOT ISLAND QLD -24.11 152.72 9.42 5.08 3.60 2.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039083 ROCKHAMPTON AERO QLD -23.38 150.48 24.22 17.13 13.03 10.09 8.90 4.51 2.07 1.15 0.28 0.06 0.03 0.0139085 SANDY CAPE LIGHTHOUSE QLD -24.73 153.21 12.24 5.84 3.78 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039104 MONTO TOWNSHIP QLD -24.86 151.12 16.78 11.93 9.18 7.20 7.18 3.67 1.84 0.96 0.20 0.09 0.00 0.0039122 HERON ISLAND RES STN QLD -23.44 151.91 7.50 4.20 3.00 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0039123 GLADSTONE RADAR QLD -23.86 151.26 22.65 14.80 10.80 8.24 3.04 0.98 0.29 0.08 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0039128 BUNDABERG AERO QLD -24.89 152.32 10.81 5.81 3.79 2.75 0.79 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0040004 AMBERLEY AMO QLD -27.63 152.71 25.98 16.91 11.47 8.36 7.50 2.64 1.05 0.47 0.52 0.11 0.02 0.0040043 CAPE MORETON LIGHTHOUSE QLD -27.03 153.47 1.20 0.26 0.10 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0040062 CROHAMHURST QLD -26.81 152.87 14.00 6.77 3.51 1.94 2.23 0.46 0.14 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0040068 DOUBLE ISLAND POINT LIGHTHO QLD -25.93 153.19 6.06 2.56 1.38 0.84 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 59

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

40082 UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND G QLD -27.54 152.34 26.14 17.52 12.00 8.67 9.64 3.64 1.62 0.81 0.86 0.21 0.02 0.0240093 GYMPIE QLD -26.18 152.64 22.83 15.33 10.64 7.71 7.12 2.69 1.19 0.69 0.29 0.02 0.00 0.0040100 IMBIL FORESTRY QLD -26.46 152.66 20.09 11.69 7.60 4.63 5.03 1.49 0.57 0.20 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.0040112 KINGAROY PRINCE STREET QLD -26.55 151.85 19.49 11.95 7.74 5.09 2.84 1.00 0.33 0.12 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.0040126 MARYBOROUGH QLD -25.52 152.72 22.52 14.14 9.20 6.72 2.34 0.58 0.22 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0040190 SOUTHPORT RIDGEWAY AVE QLD -27.98 153.41 16.94 5.94 2.97 1.50 1.24 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.0040211 ARCHERFIELD AIRPORT QLD -27.57 153.01 11.10 6.37 3.81 2.47 1.74 0.34 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.0040214 BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE QLD -27.48 153.03 21.07 10.57 6.24 3.91 2.84 0.49 0.10 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.0040223 BRISBANE AERO QLD -27.42 153.11 17.12 7.30 4.12 2.70 1.16 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0040264 TEWANTIN POST OFFICE QLD -26.39 153.04 14.86 7.07 3.77 2.33 1.72 0.40 0.12 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.0040265 REDLANDS HRS QLD -27.53 153.25 9.60 3.57 2.00 1.07 0.43 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0040282 NAMBOUR DPI QLD -26.64 152.94 19.57 9.90 5.33 3.05 3.48 0.90 0.24 0.12 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.0040428 BRIAN PASTURES QLD -25.66 151.75 23.44 17.08 13.38 10.62 10.03 4.77 2.41 1.46 0.54 0.18 0.05 0.0540436 GATTON QDPI RESEARCH STN QLD -27.55 152.33 26.32 17.79 12.66 8.92 9.89 4.03 1.74 0.89 1.00 0.24 0.08 0.0340451 TOOLARA FORESTRY QLD -26.00 152.83 18.47 10.40 6.43 4.27 2.53 1.00 0.27 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.0041023 DALBY POST OFFICE QLD -27.18 151.26 21.40 15.39 11.70 9.03 9.91 5.29 3.02 1.77 0.78 0.28 0.14 0.0741038 GOONDIWINDI POST OFFICE QLD -28.55 150.31 19.13 14.09 11.22 9.43 13.78 8.58 5.86 3.99 2.31 1.10 0.55 0.2641044 HERMITAGE QLD -28.21 152.10 18.45 11.58 7.27 5.03 3.03 1.09 0.45 0.24 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.0041095 STANTHORPE LESLIE PARADE QLD -28.66 151.93 10.32 5.42 2.62 1.50 0.66 0.26 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0041100 TEXAS POST OFFICE QLD -28.85 151.17 18.08 13.08 10.08 7.79 11.11 6.21 3.63 2.34 1.45 0.47 0.13 0.0341103 TOOWOOMBA QLD -27.58 151.93 13.88 6.73 3.46 1.88 1.88 0.61 0.20 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0041175 APPLETHORPE QLD -28.62 151.95 7.39 3.12 1.66 0.95 0.54 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0041359 OAKEY AERO QLD -27.40 151.74 21.06 13.94 9.21 6.41 5.56 2.15 0.82 0.41 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.0042023 MILES POST OFFICE QLD -26.66 150.18 18.72 14.00 10.81 8.89 11.77 6.68 4.15 2.57 1.02 0.40 0.11 0.0243015 INJUNE POST OFFICE QLD -25.84 148.57 19.25 14.10 11.10 8.93 11.80 6.80 4.30 2.88 1.20 0.40 0.10 0.0343020 MITCHELL POST OFFICE QLD -26.49 147.98 18.82 14.36 11.82 9.56 14.69 9.28 6.41 4.33 2.05 0.97 0.36 0.1843030 ROMA POST OFFICE QLD -26.57 148.79 19.46 14.91 11.57 9.43 17.29 11.00 7.46 5.17 2.80 1.14 0.63 0.2943034 ST GEORGE POST OFFICE QLD -28.04 148.58 19.89 15.00 11.63 9.49 16.03 10.60 7.31 4.89 2.54 1.31 0.66 0.2343035 SURAT QLD -27.16 149.07 19.27 14.11 11.36 9.56 15.07 9.44 6.18 4.53 2.16 1.09 0.33 0.1144010 BOLLON MARY ST QLD -28.03 147.48 19.60 15.04 11.68 9.68 17.36 11.84 8.28 6.34 5.80 2.98 1.68 0.7644021 CHARLEVILLE AERO QLD -26.41 146.26 19.45 14.68 11.55 9.52 15.85 10.49 7.66 5.88 3.06 1.68 0.75 0.3444022 CHARLEVILLE POST OFFICE QLD -26.40 146.24 18.54 13.75 11.46 9.35 16.90 12.00 9.30 7.33 5.86 3.21 1.95 1.3344026 CUNNAMULLA POST OFFICE QLD -28.07 145.68 19.64 15.28 11.66 9.78 17.90 11.96 8.62 6.48 6.18 3.26 1.84 1.0645015 QUILPIE AIRPORT QLD -26.61 144.26 18.18 13.94 11.18 9.26 18.58 13.26 10.24 8.18 7.94 4.54 2.74 1.7845017 THARGOMINDAH POST OFFICE QLD -28.00 143.82 19.40 14.70 11.64 9.30 19.26 13.77 9.89 7.81 9.19 5.17 3.13 1.94

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

60 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

46037 TIBOOBURRA POST OFFICE NSW -29.43 142.01 21.54 16.12 12.36 9.98 19.90 13.61 9.46 7.01 8.32 4.14 2.43 1.4746042 WHITE CLIFFS POST OFFICE NSW -30.85 143.09 21.44 16.29 13.02 10.27 19.64 13.02 9.09 6.49 8.56 4.22 2.29 1.2046043 WILCANNIA(REID ST) NSW -31.56 143.37 22.98 17.32 13.66 10.54 19.40 12.72 8.84 5.92 7.78 3.68 2.26 1.2447007 BROKEN HILL (PATTON STREET) NSW -31.98 141.47 21.10 15.26 10.30 7.64 12.64 7.28 4.42 2.68 3.16 1.26 0.52 0.2447016 LAKE VICTORIA STORAGE NSW -34.04 141.27 21.38 13.86 9.29 6.90 12.95 6.10 3.45 2.05 3.50 1.02 0.31 0.1747019 MENINDEE POST OFFICE NSW -32.39 142.42 21.13 14.65 9.98 7.65 16.52 9.31 5.60 3.44 5.88 2.44 1.13 0.5047048 BROKEN HILL AIRPORT AWS NSW -32.00 141.47 9.30 6.34 4.54 3.54 6.02 3.44 2.14 1.26 1.44 0.64 0.32 0.1248013 BOURKE POST OFFICE NSW -30.09 145.94 20.61 15.36 12.16 10.13 19.06 13.27 9.34 6.89 9.05 4.77 2.81 1.6548015 BREWARRINA HOSPITAL NSW -29.96 146.87 18.43 13.69 10.93 8.60 16.29 10.90 7.71 5.76 5.95 2.90 1.69 1.0048027 COBAR MO NSW -31.48 145.83 21.27 15.51 12.00 9.53 14.18 9.02 6.04 4.02 3.64 1.49 0.71 0.3348030 COBAR POST OFFICE NSW -31.50 145.80 19.71 14.76 11.50 9.11 16.44 10.94 7.37 5.13 6.18 2.90 1.54 0.8648031 COLLARENEBRI (ALBERT ST) NSW -29.54 148.58 18.45 13.07 10.36 8.29 13.93 8.74 6.21 4.67 3.88 1.52 0.88 0.3349002 BALRANALD (RSL) NSW -34.64 143.56 21.24 14.05 9.31 6.33 12.98 6.50 3.64 2.07 4.02 1.52 0.57 0.2449019 IVANHOE POST OFFICE NSW -32.90 144.30 22.44 16.31 12.50 9.50 17.83 10.79 6.83 4.48 6.44 3.38 1.65 0.8550014 CONDOBOLIN RETIREMENT VILL NSW -33.08 147.15 20.76 14.90 10.97 8.59 11.14 6.79 4.21 2.66 2.69 1.03 0.55 0.1450031 PEAK HILL POST OFFICE NSW -32.72 148.19 19.93 14.29 11.02 8.60 10.74 6.88 4.45 3.05 2.00 0.69 0.26 0.0750052 CONDOBOLIN AG RESEARCH ST NSW -33.07 147.23 19.00 13.31 9.86 7.57 11.67 6.69 4.38 3.02 3.21 1.19 0.55 0.2651010 COONAMBLE COMPARISON NSW -30.98 148.38 19.45 13.86 10.69 8.57 13.26 8.07 5.60 3.74 2.81 1.26 0.48 0.2151039 NYNGAN AIRPORT NSW -31.55 147.20 20.63 15.33 12.00 9.63 14.79 9.38 6.69 4.54 3.92 1.67 0.79 0.3551049 TRANGIE RESEARCH STATION A NSW -31.99 147.95 20.42 13.95 10.26 8.05 11.68 6.92 4.63 3.08 2.26 0.74 0.39 0.0852020 MUNGINDI POST OFFICE NSW -28.98 148.99 16.62 12.29 9.88 7.93 14.26 8.98 6.26 4.62 4.05 1.83 0.74 0.3352026 WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT NSW -30.02 148.12 19.35 14.65 11.51 9.61 17.30 11.41 7.69 5.46 5.60 2.58 1.46 0.8353002 BARADINE FORESTRY NSW -30.95 149.07 16.02 10.83 8.48 6.62 9.64 5.21 3.26 2.10 1.31 0.48 0.21 0.1053030 NARRABRI WEST POST OFFICE NSW -30.34 149.76 19.23 14.28 11.05 9.28 12.78 8.10 5.78 4.00 1.58 0.70 0.28 0.1053048 MOREE COMPARISON NSW -29.48 149.84 19.45 14.21 10.76 9.06 12.70 7.00 4.18 2.61 1.39 0.48 0.15 0.0054003 BARRABA POST OFFICE NSW -30.38 150.61 18.27 12.93 9.78 7.59 6.41 3.39 1.93 1.27 0.39 0.05 0.00 0.0054104 PINDARI DAM NSW -29.39 151.24 18.64 12.94 9.19 7.08 5.28 2.39 1.31 0.78 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.0055023 GUNNEDAH POOL NSW -30.98 150.25 17.61 12.74 10.23 8.39 11.42 7.11 4.69 3.42 2.44 1.14 0.59 0.2655024 GUNNEDAH RESOURCE CENTRENSW -31.03 150.27 19.49 13.53 10.24 7.76 7.86 4.20 2.68 1.90 0.81 0.17 0.02 0.0255049 QUIRINDI POST OFFICE NSW -31.51 150.68 18.48 12.88 9.43 7.45 8.29 4.74 3.02 1.79 0.74 0.14 0.05 0.0055054 TAMWORTH AIRPORT NSW -31.09 150.85 18.43 12.31 9.11 6.46 6.11 3.43 1.86 1.11 0.40 0.06 0.00 0.0055136 WOOLBROOK (DANGLEMAH ROANSW -30.97 151.35 9.35 5.51 3.14 2.03 0.73 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0056002 ARMIDALE (RADIO STATION 2AD NSW -30.52 151.67 8.64 4.90 2.74 1.46 0.46 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0056011 GLEN INNES POST OFFICE NSW -29.74 151.74 6.98 3.47 1.89 1.04 0.20 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0056013 GLEN INNES AG RESEARCH STN NSW -29.70 151.69 3.95 1.73 0.78 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 61

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

56017 INVERELL COMPARISON NSW -29.78 151.11 16.59 10.95 7.78 5.87 4.12 2.09 1.15 0.75 0.24 0.09 0.03 0.0056018 INVERELL RESEARCH CENTRE NSW -29.78 151.08 13.21 8.07 5.55 3.76 1.71 0.55 0.19 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0056032 TENTERFIELD (FEDERATION PAR NSW -29.05 152.02 11.02 5.29 2.62 1.31 0.81 0.14 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0057095 TABULAM (MUIRNE) NSW -28.76 152.45 13.78 6.51 3.11 1.51 1.68 0.46 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0058009 BYRON BAY (CAPE BYRON LIGHT NSW -28.64 153.64 8.13 2.09 0.69 0.25 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0058012 YAMBA PILOT STATION NSW -29.43 153.36 4.41 0.68 0.19 0.06 0.73 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0058037 LISMORE (CENTRE STREET) NSW -28.81 153.26 25.28 14.24 8.35 4.93 5.89 1.30 0.46 0.20 0.24 0.09 0.04 0.0058063 CASINO AIRPORT NSW -28.88 153.05 25.86 16.40 10.38 6.83 9.43 3.19 1.17 0.43 0.81 0.10 0.02 0.0058130 GRAFTON OLYMPIC POOL NSW -29.68 152.93 27.00 15.41 8.71 5.54 7.15 1.85 0.61 0.27 0.66 0.07 0.05 0.0058131 ALSTONVILLE TROPICAL FRUIT R NSW -28.85 153.46 11.97 3.82 1.69 0.87 1.21 0.28 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0058158 MURWILLUMBAH (BRAY PARK) NSW -28.34 153.38 24.40 12.60 6.86 4.40 3.74 0.60 0.23 0.03 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.0059017 KEMPSEY (WIDE STREET) NSW -31.08 152.82 20.40 9.02 4.38 2.29 2.69 0.45 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.02 0.02 0.0059030 SOUTH WEST ROCKS (SMOKY C NSW -30.92 153.09 5.36 1.44 0.60 0.24 0.36 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.0059040 COFFS HARBOUR MO NSW -30.31 153.12 9.11 2.14 0.50 0.20 1.17 0.13 0.03 0.02 0.25 0.02 0.02 0.0060026 PORT MACQUARIE (BELLEVUE G NSW -31.44 152.91 2.50 0.35 0.09 0.04 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.0060030 TAREE (ROBERTSON ST) NSW -31.90 152.45 24.85 12.13 6.36 3.85 7.21 1.51 0.44 0.08 0.64 0.03 0.00 0.0060085 YARRAS (MOUNT SEAVIEW) NSW -31.39 152.25 24.16 12.34 6.79 3.95 6.34 1.74 0.61 0.24 0.61 0.05 0.00 0.0061051 MURRURUNDI POST OFFICE NSW -31.76 150.84 17.81 11.38 8.10 5.57 5.24 2.57 1.05 0.55 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.0061054 NELSON BAY (NELSON HEAD) NSW -32.71 152.16 2.18 0.49 0.13 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0061055 NEWCASTLE NOBBYS SIGNAL ST NSW -32.92 151.80 11.34 2.08 0.32 0.12 2.68 0.22 0.08 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.0061078 WILLIAMTOWN RAAF NSW -32.79 151.84 19.92 7.77 3.29 1.35 6.32 1.28 0.34 0.12 0.86 0.06 0.02 0.0061086 JERRYS PLAINS POST OFFICE NSW -32.50 150.91 26.28 15.92 9.94 6.80 12.62 5.58 2.68 1.30 2.26 0.66 0.10 0.0261087 GOSFORD (NARARA RESEARCH NSW -33.39 151.33 11.21 4.07 1.67 0.64 3.48 0.60 0.07 0.00 0.55 0.02 0.00 0.0061089 SCONE SCS NSW -32.06 150.93 22.52 14.05 9.21 6.48 9.36 4.64 2.00 1.14 0.93 0.24 0.10 0.0261242 CESSNOCK (NULKABA) NSW -32.81 151.35 26.53 14.74 8.88 5.09 11.68 4.47 1.74 0.71 2.03 0.29 0.00 0.0061250 PATERSON (TOCAL AWS) NSW -32.63 151.59 23.79 12.49 6.33 3.62 9.33 3.49 1.33 0.38 1.28 0.15 0.03 0.0061260 CESSNOCK AIRPORT AWS NSW -32.79 151.34 10.56 5.41 2.92 1.56 3.92 1.36 0.56 0.18 0.62 0.08 0.00 0.0061273 NORAH HEAD LIGHTHOUSE NSW -33.28 151.58 7.82 1.03 0.15 0.03 2.26 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.0061288 LOSTOCK DAM NSW -32.33 151.46 21.74 12.03 7.13 4.18 7.37 3.05 1.29 0.63 0.55 0.08 0.05 0.0062013 GULGONG POST OFFICE NSW -32.36 149.53 17.86 11.78 8.84 5.97 7.32 3.84 2.19 1.32 0.59 0.16 0.11 0.0862021 MUDGEE (GEORGE STREET) NSW -32.60 149.60 17.12 11.55 8.24 5.52 6.33 3.24 1.67 1.03 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.0063004 BATHURST GAOL NSW -33.42 149.55 14.01 8.97 5.87 3.97 3.78 1.93 0.97 0.49 0.17 0.08 0.02 0.0263005 BATHURST AGRICULTURAL STAT NSW -33.43 149.56 11.39 6.83 4.71 3.27 2.24 0.98 0.49 0.17 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0063023 COWRA RESEARCH CENTRE (EV NSW -33.81 148.71 15.69 10.93 7.95 5.69 7.00 3.67 2.29 1.45 0.57 0.17 0.07 0.0563039 KATOOMBA (MURRI ST) NSW -33.71 150.31 4.46 1.90 0.66 0.20 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

62 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

63063 OBERON (SPRINGBANK) NSW -33.68 149.84 2.88 1.43 0.64 0.36 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0063224 LITHGOW (BIRDWOOD ST) NSW -33.49 150.15 8.38 4.60 2.35 1.40 1.08 0.35 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0063231 ORANGE AIRPORT COMPARISON NSW -33.38 149.12 6.46 3.26 2.08 1.28 0.41 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0063254 ORANGE AGRICULTURAL INSTIT NSW -33.32 149.08 7.29 3.77 2.39 1.45 0.45 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0064008 COONABARABRAN (NAMOI STRE NSW -31.27 149.27 17.90 12.80 9.24 7.18 6.74 3.72 2.28 1.58 0.44 0.08 0.02 0.0064009 DUNEDOO POST OFFICE NSW -32.02 149.40 19.86 13.12 9.50 6.93 9.67 5.60 3.21 1.71 1.07 0.45 0.12 0.0565012 DUBBO (DARLING STREET) NSW -32.24 148.61 21.14 14.86 10.56 7.97 10.46 6.14 3.63 2.24 1.36 0.58 0.22 0.0865016 FORBES (CAMP STREET) NSW -33.39 148.01 19.69 14.00 10.32 8.09 11.50 6.94 4.69 3.11 2.39 0.99 0.48 0.1765026 PARKES (MACARTHUR STREET) NSW -33.14 148.16 19.10 13.10 9.84 7.34 8.92 5.36 3.40 2.10 1.48 0.40 0.12 0.0665034 WELLINGTON (AGROWPLOW) NSW -32.56 148.95 18.95 13.02 9.57 7.31 9.19 5.43 3.31 2.12 1.12 0.38 0.14 0.0765035 WELLINGTON RESEARCH CENTRNSW -32.51 148.97 17.41 11.54 8.77 6.15 7.41 4.08 2.21 1.28 0.79 0.18 0.05 0.0565091 COWRA AIRPORT COMPARISON NSW -33.85 148.65 18.37 12.95 9.63 7.24 9.80 5.41 3.59 2.20 1.68 0.61 0.29 0.1066037 SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO NSW -33.94 151.17 16.22 4.07 1.16 0.26 4.32 0.44 0.09 0.03 0.71 0.03 0.01 0.0066062 SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) NSW -33.86 151.21 11.75 2.43 0.38 0.07 2.85 0.18 0.03 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.00 0.0066124 PARRAMATTA NORTH (MASONS NSW -33.79 151.02 23.25 9.55 4.28 2.15 7.83 1.70 0.50 0.10 1.13 0.10 0.03 0.0066131 RIVERVIEW OBSERVATORY NSW -33.83 151.16 9.16 2.67 0.93 0.29 1.91 0.31 0.07 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.0066137 BANKSTOWN AIRPORT AWS NSW -33.92 150.99 22.77 7.64 3.41 1.44 7.03 1.08 0.36 0.05 1.00 0.08 0.00 0.0067019 PROSPECT DAM NSW -33.82 150.91 23.50 10.19 4.81 2.21 7.52 1.86 0.57 0.07 0.88 0.07 0.00 0.0067033 RICHMOND RAAF NSW -33.60 150.78 20.65 11.02 6.09 3.83 8.85 2.70 1.07 0.30 1.56 0.28 0.06 0.0067035 LIVERPOOL(WHITLAM CENTRE) NSW -33.93 150.91 24.03 9.53 4.39 2.05 8.21 1.55 0.50 0.08 1.08 0.13 0.05 0.0068034 JERVIS BAY (POINT PERPENDICU NSW -35.09 150.80 6.02 0.83 0.11 0.06 0.89 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0068076 NOWRA RAN AIR STATION NSW -34.94 150.55 15.64 4.48 1.39 0.39 4.25 0.61 0.11 0.05 0.77 0.11 0.00 0.0068102 BOWRAL (PARRY DRIVE) NSW -34.49 150.40 10.05 4.12 1.71 0.85 1.63 0.51 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0068188 WOLLONGONG UNIVERSITY NSW -34.40 150.88 10.89 2.65 0.62 0.27 2.51 0.11 0.03 0.03 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.0068192 CAMDEN AIRPORT AWS NSW -34.04 150.69 21.57 10.31 5.77 3.31 8.57 2.26 0.94 0.14 1.69 0.20 0.00 0.0069017 MONTAGUE ISLAND LIGHTHOUS NSW -36.25 150.23 1.74 0.13 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0069018 MORUYA HEADS PILOT STATION NSW -35.91 150.15 5.62 0.78 0.06 0.00 1.76 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.0069022 NAROOMA RVCP NSW -36.21 150.14 1.40 0.24 0.02 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0069049 NERRIGA COMPOSITE NSW -35.12 150.08 13.31 5.94 2.92 1.58 3.19 1.11 0.28 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0070005 BOMBALA (THERRY STREET) NSW -36.91 149.24 9.93 4.48 1.98 1.12 1.86 0.57 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0070014 CANBERRA AIRPORT NSW -35.30 149.20 12.35 7.18 4.40 2.66 2.88 1.31 0.54 0.19 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.0070080 TARALGA POST OFFICE NSW -34.40 149.82 8.80 4.66 2.40 1.22 1.36 0.54 0.16 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0070091 YASS (LINTON HOSTEL) NSW -34.83 148.91 14.78 9.63 6.34 4.15 4.80 2.73 1.34 0.63 0.27 0.05 0.00 0.0070263 GOULBURN TAFE NSW -34.75 149.70 12.08 6.67 3.67 2.06 3.19 1.44 0.47 0.19 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.0070278 COOMA VISITORS CENTRE NSW -36.23 149.12 11.00 6.21 3.56 2.24 1.62 0.56 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 63

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

71003 CHARLOTTE PASS (KOSCIUSKO NSW -36.43 148.33 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071032 THREDBO AWS NSW -36.49 148.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071041 THREDBO VILLAGE NSW -36.50 148.30 0.42 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0071072 PERISHER VALLEY SKI CENTRE NSW -36.40 148.41 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0072023 HUME RESERVOIR NSW -36.10 147.03 15.64 10.43 7.55 5.36 7.21 3.26 1.74 0.86 0.79 0.21 0.02 0.0072043 TUMBARUMBA POST OFFICE NSW -35.78 148.01 9.62 5.71 3.64 2.33 1.90 0.79 0.29 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0072060 KHANCOBAN SMHEA NSW -36.23 148.14 13.41 8.66 5.81 4.16 4.09 1.94 0.81 0.34 0.22 0.03 0.00 0.0072091 CABRAMURRA SMHEA NSW -35.94 148.38 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0072150 WAGGA WAGGA AMO NSW -35.16 147.46 17.60 11.68 8.42 6.11 8.75 4.43 2.45 1.46 1.29 0.51 0.12 0.0672151 WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL) NSW -35.13 147.37 18.90 13.41 9.51 7.43 12.29 6.89 4.42 2.92 3.10 1.27 0.59 0.3373007 BURRINJUCK DAM NSW -35.00 148.60 14.83 9.67 6.69 4.40 5.71 2.79 1.50 0.81 0.31 0.05 0.00 0.0073009 COOTAMUNDRA POST OFFICE NSW -34.64 148.02 17.89 12.61 9.13 6.58 8.16 4.26 2.50 1.61 0.87 0.29 0.08 0.0373014 GRENFELL (QUONDONG RD) NSW -33.90 148.17 15.62 10.93 8.21 5.83 7.88 4.17 2.48 1.60 0.93 0.29 0.12 0.0573032 QUANDIALLA POST OFFICE NSW -34.01 147.79 19.26 13.48 10.05 7.67 10.26 6.31 4.02 2.88 2.26 0.98 0.36 0.1973038 TEMORA RESEARCH STATION NSW -34.41 147.52 17.85 12.21 8.90 6.26 9.08 4.51 2.56 1.72 1.28 0.54 0.15 0.0373054 WYALONG POST OFFICE NSW -33.93 147.24 20.83 14.05 10.38 7.79 10.79 6.52 3.95 2.62 2.14 0.88 0.43 0.1473127 WAGGA WAGGA AGRICULTURAL NSW -35.05 147.35 10.08 6.74 4.81 3.52 5.61 2.82 1.60 1.03 0.92 0.31 0.06 0.0374034 COROWA AIRPORT NSW -35.99 146.36 17.41 12.05 8.70 6.65 9.86 5.03 2.92 1.73 1.95 0.59 0.11 0.0374106 TOCUMWAL AIRPORT NSW -35.82 145.60 21.64 14.19 10.03 7.31 12.03 6.19 3.44 1.97 2.83 1.14 0.47 0.0874114 WAGGA WAGGA RESEARCH CEN NSW -35.13 147.31 16.51 10.58 7.47 5.27 7.27 3.55 1.82 1.05 0.80 0.27 0.05 0.0474128 DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) NSW -35.53 144.95 21.31 14.69 10.41 7.41 13.50 7.32 4.26 2.48 4.18 1.69 0.66 0.3074148 NARRANDERA AIRPORT NSW -34.71 146.51 5.89 3.86 2.83 2.14 3.14 1.69 1.11 0.75 0.72 0.19 0.08 0.0374221 NARRANDERA GOLF CLUB NSW -34.73 146.56 20.43 13.76 10.00 7.16 12.22 6.65 3.95 2.46 2.86 1.16 0.54 0.1975031 HAY (MILLER STREET) NSW -34.52 144.85 22.78 15.58 11.40 8.44 14.36 7.74 4.58 2.92 4.00 1.48 0.78 0.2075032 HILLSTON AIRPORT NSW -33.49 145.52 22.66 16.20 12.00 9.30 14.32 8.14 5.22 3.20 4.00 1.68 0.80 0.3075039 LAKE CARGELLIGO AIRPORT NSW -33.28 146.37 19.71 13.69 10.33 8.00 12.62 7.50 4.62 2.90 3.67 1.62 0.71 0.3375041 GRIFFITH AIRPORT AWS NSW -34.25 146.07 16.24 10.84 7.65 5.24 9.78 5.16 3.05 2.16 2.59 0.89 0.46 0.1176031 MILDURA AIRPORT VIC -34.24 142.09 24.18 15.82 10.59 7.34 14.38 7.03 4.03 2.21 3.59 1.15 0.39 0.1676047 OUYEN (POST OFFICE) VIC -35.07 142.32 24.16 16.28 10.76 7.80 14.50 7.86 4.18 2.28 4.30 1.64 0.78 0.2876064 WALPEUP RESEARCH VIC -35.12 142.00 23.24 14.86 9.98 7.02 13.29 7.24 3.90 2.00 4.24 1.52 0.48 0.2176077 MILDURA POST OFFICE VIC -34.18 142.20 24.70 16.67 11.45 7.97 16.35 9.27 5.38 3.25 5.90 2.50 1.10 0.6277042 SWAN HILL POST OFFICE VIC -35.34 143.55 22.11 14.50 9.67 6.86 11.64 5.69 3.03 1.75 2.67 0.89 0.17 0.0678031 NHILL VIC -36.33 141.64 19.94 12.15 7.16 4.49 10.08 4.45 2.10 1.08 2.43 0.68 0.18 0.0778072 DONALD VIC -36.37 142.97 18.03 12.06 7.64 4.91 7.42 3.76 1.91 0.76 1.33 0.21 0.00 0.0078077 WARRACKNABEAL MUSEUM VIC -36.26 142.41 22.05 13.39 8.82 5.89 11.55 5.61 2.95 1.37 3.16 0.95 0.24 0.03

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

64 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

79023 HORSHAM POLKEMMET RD VIC -36.66 142.07 20.18 12.20 7.98 4.80 9.60 4.72 2.34 1.04 2.20 0.54 0.14 0.0679028 LONGERENONG VIC -36.67 142.30 19.52 11.76 7.48 4.50 9.71 4.60 2.17 1.02 2.26 0.55 0.12 0.0280015 ECHUCA AERODROME VIC -36.17 144.76 20.96 13.70 8.96 6.08 10.28 4.82 2.52 1.36 2.12 0.68 0.10 0.0480023 KERANG VIC -35.72 143.92 21.82 14.49 9.67 6.64 11.69 5.80 3.09 1.64 3.18 1.13 0.29 0.0780091 KYABRAM DPI VIC -36.34 145.06 18.76 11.36 7.40 4.81 7.93 3.36 1.36 0.71 1.21 0.29 0.05 0.0081003 BENDIGO PRISON VIC -36.75 144.28 16.62 10.21 6.18 3.65 5.53 2.79 1.12 0.50 0.50 0.12 0.03 0.0081049 TATURA INST SUSTAINABLE AG VIC -36.44 145.27 17.79 10.64 6.52 4.17 6.62 2.50 1.12 0.38 0.64 0.07 0.02 0.0081084 LEMNOS (CAMPBELLS SOUP) VIC -36.36 145.46 18.63 11.20 7.13 4.40 7.37 3.27 1.37 0.53 1.17 0.17 0.00 0.0082002 BENALLA (SHADFORTH STREET) VIC -36.55 145.97 17.53 11.84 8.35 5.86 7.29 3.61 1.92 1.00 0.71 0.16 0.02 0.0082011 CORRYONG (PARISH LANE) VIC -36.20 147.90 14.88 10.15 7.67 5.42 5.76 2.97 1.67 0.91 0.33 0.06 0.00 0.0082039 RUTHERGLEN RESEARCH VIC -36.10 146.51 16.00 10.78 7.89 5.87 7.86 4.03 2.15 1.19 1.20 0.35 0.08 0.0282042 STRATHBOGIE VIC -36.85 145.73 11.82 6.94 3.91 2.33 3.03 0.97 0.33 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0082053 WANGARATTA VIC -36.37 146.30 17.62 11.62 8.24 5.86 8.00 4.00 2.28 1.21 1.00 0.31 0.00 0.0082076 DARTMOUTH RESERVOIR VIC -36.54 147.50 13.41 8.59 5.53 3.69 3.84 1.56 0.81 0.41 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.0083025 OMEO COMPARISON VIC -37.10 147.60 9.58 4.66 2.48 1.22 1.26 0.32 0.14 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.0084016 GABO ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE VIC -37.57 149.92 1.12 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0084030 ORBOST (COMPARISON) VIC -37.69 148.46 16.34 6.42 2.06 0.74 5.50 1.08 0.22 0.06 0.78 0.06 0.02 0.0084070 POINT HICKS (LIGHTHOUSE) VIC -37.80 149.27 8.39 2.00 0.34 0.07 1.46 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.0084083 LAKES ENTRANCE VIC -37.87 148.00 10.50 2.73 0.63 0.13 3.30 0.40 0.03 0.03 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0085072 EAST SALE AIRPORT VIC -38.12 147.13 13.73 4.08 1.15 0.35 4.29 0.79 0.18 0.03 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.0085096 WILSONS PROMONTORY LIGHTH VIC -39.13 146.42 4.22 1.40 0.20 0.06 1.02 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0085106 OLSENS BRIDGE (MORWELL RIV VIC -38.49 146.32 9.38 3.47 1.26 0.56 2.50 0.62 0.15 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.0085279 BAIRNSDALE AIRPORT VIC -37.88 147.57 6.19 1.88 0.63 0.23 2.42 0.42 0.11 0.00 0.38 0.03 0.00 0.0086017 CAPE SCHANCK LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.49 144.89 6.97 2.00 0.49 0.14 1.86 0.34 0.09 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.0086038 ESSENDON AIRPORT VIC -37.73 144.91 9.51 3.90 1.56 0.60 3.47 1.15 0.37 0.13 0.47 0.12 0.03 0.0086071 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE VIC -37.81 144.97 17.79 7.41 2.78 1.10 6.88 2.10 0.62 0.21 1.05 0.18 0.05 0.0186077 MOORABBIN AIRPORT VIC -37.98 145.10 16.03 6.67 2.28 0.81 6.06 1.86 0.44 0.06 0.75 0.11 0.00 0.0086104 SCORESBY RESEARCH INSTITUT VIC -37.87 145.26 14.74 7.26 2.74 1.31 4.76 1.52 0.38 0.12 0.43 0.05 0.00 0.0086127 WONTHAGGI VIC -38.61 145.60 11.95 4.10 1.21 0.56 3.33 0.59 0.21 0.03 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.0086142 TOOLANGI (MOUNT ST LEONARD VIC -37.57 145.50 6.24 2.17 0.83 0.22 0.59 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0086282 MELBOURNE AIRPORT VIC -37.67 144.83 17.46 7.92 3.05 1.43 6.65 2.16 0.51 0.11 0.97 0.14 0.00 0.0087021 DURDIDWARRAH VIC -37.82 144.21 10.89 4.23 1.77 0.77 2.54 0.77 0.20 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.0087031 LAVERTON RAAF VIC -37.86 144.76 16.16 6.27 2.17 0.88 6.61 1.86 0.52 0.14 1.09 0.16 0.02 0.0087036 MACEDON FORESTRY VIC -37.42 144.56 9.10 3.93 1.59 0.72 2.07 0.55 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0088023 LAKE EILDON VIC -37.23 145.91 16.05 9.84 6.00 3.95 4.95 2.11 0.81 0.43 0.32 0.03 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 65

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

88043 MARYBOROUGH VIC -37.06 143.73 17.62 10.93 6.40 3.71 6.79 3.26 1.38 0.57 0.86 0.14 0.02 0.0288068 RUBICON SEC VIC -37.34 145.85 3.46 1.60 0.74 0.34 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0088109 MANGALORE AIRPORT VIC -36.89 145.18 18.06 10.40 6.27 3.81 7.50 3.00 1.38 0.56 1.23 0.19 0.00 0.0088110 CASTLEMAINE PRISON VIC -37.08 144.24 15.76 9.20 5.34 3.17 5.27 2.32 0.85 0.41 0.46 0.05 0.00 0.0089002 BALLARAT AERODROME VIC -37.51 143.79 11.72 5.96 2.62 1.30 3.06 1.06 0.26 0.10 0.22 0.02 0.02 0.0089018 LISMORE (POST OFFICE) VIC -37.95 143.34 14.28 7.08 3.00 1.31 4.97 2.11 0.58 0.17 0.61 0.06 0.03 0.0089085 ARARAT PRISON VIC -37.28 142.98 15.21 8.05 4.34 2.11 5.29 1.89 0.58 0.13 0.37 0.05 0.00 0.0090014 CAPE NELSON LIGHTHOUSE CO VIC -38.43 141.54 6.76 1.62 0.38 0.05 2.31 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.0090015 CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.86 143.51 7.27 1.88 0.49 0.13 2.12 0.37 0.05 0.02 0.24 0.02 0.00 0.0090048 HEYWOOD FORESTRY VIC -38.14 141.63 13.26 4.81 1.64 0.64 5.21 1.43 0.31 0.07 0.76 0.12 0.00 0.0090103 HAMILTON RESEARCH STATION VIC -37.83 142.06 13.56 6.65 3.09 1.26 4.76 1.71 0.35 0.12 0.68 0.06 0.00 0.0090135 CASTERTON SHOWGROUNDS VIC -37.59 141.41 16.92 8.78 4.38 2.18 7.22 2.56 0.96 0.40 1.22 0.24 0.08 0.0091009 BURNIE (ROUND HILL) TAS -41.07 145.94 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091049 LAUNCESTON (PUMPING STATIO TAS -41.50 147.20 2.80 0.91 0.37 0.20 0.25 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091057 LOW HEAD (COMPARISON) TAS -41.06 146.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091080 QUOIBA TAS -41.21 146.35 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091091 SHEFFIELD TAS -41.38 146.33 0.88 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091092 SMITHTON (GRANT STREET) TAS -40.85 145.11 0.17 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091104 LAUNCESTON AIRPORT COMPAR TAS -41.54 147.20 2.38 0.74 0.31 0.10 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091107 WYNYARD AIRPORT TAS -41.00 145.73 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091112 WYNYARD (JACKSON STREET) TAS -40.99 145.73 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091119 ERRIBA (CRADLE MOUNTAIN RO TAS -41.45 146.11 0.41 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091186 FORTHSIDE RESEARCH STATION TAS -41.20 146.27 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091219 SCOTTSDALE (WEST MINSTONE TAS -41.17 147.49 2.36 0.61 0.11 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0091223 MARRAWAH TAS -40.91 144.71 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092003 BICHENO (COUNCIL DEPOT) TAS -41.87 148.30 1.43 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092027 ORFORD (AUBIN COURT) TAS -42.55 147.88 3.13 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092033 ST HELENS POST OFFICE TAS -41.32 148.25 4.72 0.98 0.14 0.09 0.81 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092038 SWANSEA POST OFFICE TAS -42.12 148.08 4.24 0.48 0.04 0.00 1.04 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.0092045 EDDYSTONE POINT TAS -40.99 148.35 0.80 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0092094 SCAMANDER TAS -41.46 148.26 2.76 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0093014 OATLANDS POST OFFICE TAS -42.30 147.37 2.58 0.67 0.14 0.08 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094008 HOBART AIRPORT TAS -42.83 147.50 5.61 1.02 0.18 0.04 1.27 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.0094010 CAPE BRUNY LIGHTHOUSE TAS -43.49 147.15 1.80 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094027 HASTINGS CHALET TAS -43.41 146.87 3.10 0.33 0.03 0.00 0.50 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX B – PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

66 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

ID and Location Tmax>=30C Tmax>=35C Tmax>=40CStation

No Station Name State Lat-itude

Long-itude 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day

94029 HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD) TAS -42.89 147.33 4.74 0.76 0.12 0.02 0.96 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.0094041 MAATSUYKER ISLAND LIGHTHOU TAS -43.66 146.27 0.82 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094069 GROVE (COMPARISON) TAS -42.98 147.08 5.69 1.38 0.25 0.09 1.20 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.0094087 MOUNT WELLINGTON TAS -42.90 147.24 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0094137 GEEVESTON (CEMETERY ROAD) TAS -43.16 146.92 3.08 0.67 0.08 0.03 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0095003 BUSHY PARK (BUSHY PARK ESTA TAS -42.71 146.90 7.34 2.54 0.84 0.32 1.48 0.14 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0096003 BUTLERS GORGE TAS -42.28 146.28 1.19 0.33 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0096015 LAKE ST CLAIR (HEC) TAS -42.10 146.22 0.77 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0097014 WARATAH (MOUNT ROAD) TAS -41.44 145.53 0.34 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0097034 QUEENSTOWN (7XS) TAS -42.10 145.54 4.34 1.28 0.31 0.17 0.45 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0097053 STRATHGORDON VILLAGE TAS -42.77 146.05 2.38 0.43 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0098001 CURRIE POST OFFICE TAS -39.93 143.85 2.60 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.40 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0099005 FLINDERS ISLAND AIRPORT TAS -40.09 148.00 4.09 0.76 0.16 0.00 0.69 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200283 WILLIS ISLAND QLD -16.29 149.97 18.00 11.43 8.29 6.67 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200284 COCOS ISLAND AIRPORT WA -12.19 96.83 21.24 11.87 7.80 5.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200288 NORFOLK ISLAND AERO NSW -29.04 167.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200440 LORD HOWE ISLAND NSW -31.55 159.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00200790 CHRISTMAS ISLAND AERO WA -10.45 105.69 1.57 0.63 0.31 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300000 DAVIS ANT -68.58 77.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300001 MAWSON ANT -67.60 62.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300004 MACQUARIE ISLAND ANT -54.50 158.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00300005 HEARD ISLAND (ATLAS COVE) ANT -53.02 73.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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APPENDIX C – PROBABILISTIC MODEL FITTING AND RETURN PERIOD FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS IN SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 67

APPENDIX C – PROBABILISTIC MODEL FITTING AND RETURN PERIOD FOR YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS IN SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND

BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE - 40214

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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68 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 69

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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70 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

BRISBANE AERO – 40223

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 71

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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72 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 73

TEWANTIN POST OFFICE – 40264

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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74 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 75

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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76 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

AMBERLEY AMO – 40004

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 77

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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78 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 79

SOUTHPORT RIDGEWAY AVE – 40190

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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80 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 81

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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82 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

TOOWOOMBA – 41103

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

F

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 40 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 83

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 35 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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84 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

0 10 20 30 40 500

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Number of Hot Spells

CD

FHot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spell - fit2-day hot spell - fit3-day hot spell - fit4-day hot spell - fit1-day hot spell - data2-day hot spell - data3-day hot spell - data4-day hot spell - data

101

102

103

104

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Return period (years)

Num

ber o

f hot

spe

lls

Hot spells >= 30 C

1-day hot spells2-day hot spells3-day hot spells4-day hot spells

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APPENDIX D – CONTOUR FREQUENCY MAPS OF THE YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 85

APPENDIX D – CONTOUR FREQUENCY MAPS OF THE YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

Figure D.1: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 10-year return period

Figure D.2: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 20-year return period

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86 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Figure D.3: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 50-year return period

Figure D.4: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 100-year return period

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APPENDIX D – CONTOUR FREQUENCY MAPS OF THE YEARLY NUMBER OF HOT DAYS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 87

Figure D.5: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 10-year return period

Figure D.6: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 20-year return period

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88 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Figure D.7: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 50-year return period

Figure D.8: Contour map of the yearly number of hot days with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 100-year return period

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 89

APPENDIX E – CONTOUR FREQUENCY MAPS OF THE YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

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90 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

E.1 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C

Figure E.1.1: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 10-year return period

Figure E.1.2: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 20-year return period

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 91

Figure E.1.3: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 50-year return period

Figure E.1.4: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 100-year return period

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92 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

E.2 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 35°C

Figure E.2.1: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 10-year return period

Figure E.2.2: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 20-year return period

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 93

Figure E.2.3: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 50-year return period

Figure E.2.4: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 35°C at 100-year return period

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94 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

E.3 Hot Spells lasting 1 day or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C

Figure E.3.1: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 10-year return period

Figure E.3.2: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 20-year return period

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 95

Figure E.3.3: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 50-year return period

Figure E.3.4: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 1 day or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 100-year return period

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96 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

E.4 Hot spells lasting 2 days or more with Tmax ≥ 40°C

Figure E.4.1: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 10-year return period

Figure E.4.2: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 20-year return period

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APPENDIX E – CONTOUR FREQUENCY MAPS OF THE YEARLY TOTAL NUMBER OF HOT SPELLS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 97

Figure E.4.3: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 50-year return period

Figure E.4.4: Contour map of yearly total number of hot spells that last 2 days or more with maximum temperature threshold of 40°C at 100-year return period

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

98 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

F.1 Hobart (Ellerslie Rd) Station

The analysis procedure in Section 3.1 was made for the daily maximum temperature record at the Hobart (Ellerslie Rd) Station. The length of the record is 126 years.

Figure F.1.1: Changes observed in the yearly number of hot days - Hobart Ellerslie Rd station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 30 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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5

10

15

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Yea

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umbe

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ays

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Tmax>=30C

Tmax>=35C

Tmax>=40C

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 99

Figure F.1.2: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥30°C – Hobart Ellerslie Rd station

Figure F.1.3: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥35°C – Hobart Ellerslie Rd station

Figure F.1.4: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥40°C – Hobart Ellerslie Rd station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 40 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

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2 A

vera

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o. o

f Hot

Spe

lls p

er Y

ear

Year

Tmax >= 35 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

100 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

F.2 Sydney (Observatory Hill) Station

The analysis procedure in Section 3.1 was made for the daily maximum temperature record at the Sydney Observatory Hill station. The length of the record is 149 years.

Figure F.2.1: Changes observed in the yearly number of hot days - Sydney Observatory Hill station

Figure F.2.2: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥30°C – Sydney Observatory Hill station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 30 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Yea

rly a

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umbe

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ays

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Tmax>=25C

Tmax>=30C

Tmax>=35C

Tmax>=40C

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CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 101

Figure F.2.3: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥35°C – Sydney Observatory Hill station

Figure F.2.4: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥40°C – Sydney Observatory Hill station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 40 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 35 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

102 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

F.3 Brisbane Regional Office Station

The analysis procedure in Section 3.1 was made for the daily maximum temperature record at the Brisbane Regional Office station. The length of the record is 99 years.

Figure F.3.1: Changes observed in the yearly number of hot days - Brisbane Regional Office

Figure F.3.2: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥30°C – Brisbane Regional Office

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 30 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

50

100

150

200

250

Yea

rly a

vera

ge n

umbe

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ays

Year

Tmax>=25C

Tmax>=30C

Tmax>=35C

Tmax>=40C

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 103

Figure F.3.3: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥35°C – Brisbane Regional Office

Figure F.3.4: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥40°C – Brisbane Regional Office

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 40 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Ave

rage

No.

of H

ot S

pells

per

Yea

r

Year

Tmax >= 35 degree C

1-day

2-day

3-day

4-day

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

104 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

F.4 Adelaide (West Terrace) Station

The analysis procedure in Section 3.1 was made for the daily maximum temperature record at the Adelaide West Terrace station. The length of the record is 92 years.

Figure F.4.1: Changing trends observed in the yearly number of hot days - Adelaide West Terrace station

Figure F.4.2: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥30°C – Adelaide West Terrace station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 105

Figure F.4.3: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥35°C – Adelaide West Terrace station

Figure F.4.4: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥40°C – Adelaide West Terrace station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.2

0.4

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

106 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

F.5 Perth Regional Office Station

The analysis procedure in Section 3.1 was made for the daily maximum temperature record at the Perth Regional Office station. The length of the record is 95 years.

Figure F.5.1: Changing trends observed in the yearly number of hot days - Perth Regional Office station

Figure F.5.2: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥30°C – Perth Regional Office station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1

2

3

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APPENDIX F – OBSERVED CHANGES IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT MAJOR CITIES

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 107

Figure F.5.3: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥35°C – Perth Regional Office station

Figure F.5.4: Changes in the yearly number of 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day hot spells with Tmax≥40°C – Perth Regional Office station

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

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108 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

APPENDIX G – Observed Changing Trends in Number of Extreme Heatwave events at Locations with Long Record of More Than 90 Years

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APPENDIX G – OBSERVED CHANGING TRENDS IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT LOCATIONS WITH LONG RECORD OF MORE THAN 90 YEARS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 109

Table G.1 – Changing trends in number of heatwave events in 46 long-record stations with temperature threshold of 30°C ID and Location Average change in number of events in 100 years Tmax >= 30C

Station No Station Name State Lat-

itudeLong-itude

No.of yrs

BCA Climate

ZoneHot day 1-day

hotspell2-day

hotspell3-day

hotspell4-day

hotspell5-day

hotspell6-day

hotspell7-day

hotspell8-day

hotspell9-day

hotspell10-day

hotspell

4020 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON WA -21.18 119.75 105 1 -17.72 0.63 1.03 -0.12 0.40 0.49 0.12 -0.28 -0.199034 PERTH REGIONAL OFFICE WA -31.96 115.87 95 5 20.68 -0.80 -0.23 0.63 0.20 0.37 0.43 0.93 -0.21 0.48 0.119500 ALBANY WA -35.03 117.88 101 6 -9.98 -7.17 -1.40 9510 BRIDGETOWN COMPARISON WA -33.96 116.14 101 5 -7.91 -1.25 -1.27 -0.98 0.66 0.12 0.24 -0.21 9518 CAPE LEEUWIN WA -34.37 115.14 101 5 1.12 -0.59 0.54 0.11 9534 DONNYBROOK WA -33.57 115.82 101 5 7.23 -1.27 0.66 -0.61 0.32 0.42 0.15 0.29 0.17 -0.149581 MOUNT BARKER WA -34.63 117.64 101 6 -11.28 -5.03 -2.44 -0.61 0.10

10073 KELLERBERRIN WA -31.62 117.72 98 4 -21.04 1.02 -0.37 -1.46 0.36 -1.20 -0.30 0.12 -0.27 -0.38 -0.6010111 NORTHAM WA -31.65 116.66 101 5 -3.67 1.34 -0.71 0.16 -0.83 -0.16 -0.49 0.44 10579 KATANNING COMPARISON WA -33.69 117.56 101 4 1.44 0.95 0.65 -0.62 -0.40 0.28 0.23 0.15 -0.17 10614 NARROGIN WA -32.93 117.18 95 4 -2.29 2.39 0.89 -0.58 -0.71 0.39 0.14 -0.26 0.1310648 WANDERING COMPARISON WA -32.68 116.68 102 4 10.87 -0.58 1.10 0.13 -0.33 -0.16 0.37 0.37 -0.23 12074 SOUTHERN CROSS WA -31.23 119.33 100 4 -18.31 0.11 0.23 -1.16 -0.29 -0.24 -0.21 -0.3418070 PORT LINCOLN SA -34.72 135.86 110 5 0.71 -1.50 1.35 0.61 -0.35 -0.20 21046 SNOWTOWN SA -33.78 138.21 93 5 -6.87 -1.42 -1.70 -0.33 -1.04 0.65 0.42 0.26 -0.62 0.2423000 ADELAIDE WEST TERRACE SA -34.93 138.59 92 5 -16.68 -2.95 0.65 -0.12 -0.60 -0.73 -0.20 -0.33 -0.21 -0.2626026 ROBE COMPARISON SA -37.16 139.76 124 6 0.11 0.61 0.17 -0.17 29004 BURKETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -17.74 139.55 118 1 -45.22 -2.67 -1.11 -0.46 -0.43 -0.47 -0.23 -0.33 -0.27 30018 GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -18.29 143.55 113 1 22.44 -0.47 0.16 -0.17 0.23 -0.43 -0.39 30045 RICHMOND POST OFFICE QLD -20.73 143.14 115 3 0.82 0.15 0.21 -0.39 0.49 0.16 -0.30 -0.22 -0.38 -0.2133001 BURDEKIN SHIRE COUNCIL QLD -19.58 147.41 94 1 -29.46 -4.18 -2.11 -1.24 -0.76 -0.50 -0.23 -0.21 -0.29 -0.19 33047 TE KOWAI EXP STN QLD -21.16 149.12 100 2 -80.87 -0.27 -0.45 -0.58 -0.28 -0.99 0.26 -0.41 34002 CHARTERS TOWERS POST OFFICE QLD -20.08 146.26 99 3 -5.40 0.52 1.82 -0.32 -0.94 -0.68 0.29 0.45 -0.12 35027 EMERALD POST OFFICE QLD -23.53 148.16 103 2 1.75 0.33 0.32 -0.77 -0.52 0.40 0.23 0.15 -0.17 38003 BOULIA AIRPORT QLD -22.91 139.90 120 3 9.55 0.22 -0.33 0.22 -0.16 -0.32 -0.19 -0.16 0.4139015 BUNDABERG POST OFFICE QLD -24.87 152.35 98 2 -5.43 -0.30 0.33 0.63 0.69 -0.60 0.57 -0.68 0.37 39039 GAYNDAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.63 151.61 115 3 3.95 -1.17 -0.41 0.40 -0.17 0.29 40214 BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE QLD -27.48 153.03 99 2 -28.46 2.56 0.99 -0.85 -1.51 -0.31 -0.68 -0.40 -0.46 -0.3540264 TEWANTIN POST OFFICE QLD -26.39 153.04 101 2 3.14 4.32 2.13 0.52 -0.25 0.20 -0.11 -0.40 41023 DALBY POST OFFICE QLD -27.18 151.26 99 3 -13.31 -0.74 0.55 0.64 0.18 0.29 -0.33 0.60 0.14 0.13 41038 GOONDIWINDI POST OFFICE QLD -28.55 150.31 100 3 -4.78 0.47 0.34 -0.21 0.21 -0.27 0.18 0.3646037 TIBOOBURRA POST OFFICE NSW -29.43 142.01 98 4 22.98 -0.43 1.14 1.11 -0.14 -0.18 0.29 0.12 0.49 48013 BOURKE POST OFFICE NSW -30.09 145.94 125 4 -25.61 -0.14 0.40 0.35 -0.49 0.16 0.68 -0.17 -0.13 -0.1052026 WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT NSW -30.02 148.12 115 4 5.94 1.81 0.23 -1.00 0.12 0.39 0.34 55023 GUNNEDAH POOL NSW -30.98 150.25 132 4 -19.30 1.78 1.42 0.26 0.86 0.45 -0.12 -0.18 -0.1156017 INVERELL COMPARISON NSW -29.78 151.11 123 4 1.03 1.35 1.04 0.72 0.46 0.31 0.58 0.39 63004 BATHURST GAOL NSW -33.42 149.55 125 7 -18.90 -0.75 -1.42 -0.55 -0.37 -0.12 -0.45 0.18 -0.33 65016 FORBES (CAMP STREET) NSW -33.39 148.01 125 4 -19.25 0.80 1.56 0.12 0.13 -0.17 -0.21 -0.11 -0.27 -0.2366062 SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) NSW -33.86 151.21 149 5 2.01 2.52 -0.34 74128 DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) NSW -35.53 144.95 145 4 -23.66 1.20 0.89 0.44 -0.76 -0.21 -0.22 78031 NHILL VIC -36.33 141.64 111 2 11.53 0.51 -0.32 1.11 0.29 0.13 -0.12 0.2182039 RUTHERGLEN RESEARCH VIC -36.10 146.51 96 4 2.75 -2.25 0.42 0.96 -1.13 0.46 -0.49 0.26 -0.51 86071 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE VIC -37.81 144.97 153 6 2.02 -0.65 0.25 0.55 0.18 90015 CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.86 143.51 144 6 -4.31 -0.69 -0.76 -0.42 91057 LOW HEAD (COMPARISON) TAS -41.06 146.79 106 7 94029 HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD) TAS -42.89 147.33 126 7 3.08 2.66 0.26

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APPENDIX G – OBSERVED CHANGING TRENDS IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT LOCATIONS WITH LONG RECORD OF MORE THAN 90 YEARS

110 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

Table G.2 – Changing trends in number of heatwave events in 46 long-record stations with temperature threshold of 35°C ID and Location Average change in number of events in 100 years Tmax >= 35C

Station No Station Name State Lat-

itudeLong-itude

No.of yrs

BCA Climate

ZoneHot day 1-day

hotspell2-day

hotspell3-day

hotspell4-day

hotspell5-day

hotspell6-day

hotspell7-day

hotspell8-day

hotspell9-day

hotspell10-day

hotspell4020 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON WA -21.18 119.75 105 1 -21.28 0.64 0.14 0.13 0.18 -0.32 0.26 9034 PERTH REGIONAL OFFICE WA -31.96 115.87 95 5 11.82 2.26 0.48 0.55 0.63 0.49 0.12 9500 ALBANY WA -35.03 117.88 101 6 -2.34 -2.18 9510 BRIDGETOWN COMPARISON WA -33.96 116.14 101 5 -5.73 -0.99 -0.84 -0.26 9518 CAPE LEEUWIN WA -34.37 115.14 101 5 9534 DONNYBROOK WA -33.57 115.82 101 5 2.52 2.20 -0.52 -0.63 0.34 0.35 0.13 9581 MOUNT BARKER WA -34.63 117.64 101 6 -3.87 -1.94 -1.16 0.14

10073 KELLERBERRIN WA -31.62 117.72 98 4 -9.52 -1.06 -1.89 -1.79 -0.75 0.40 0.20 10111 NORTHAM WA -31.65 116.66 101 5 -1.02 -0.12 -0.29 0.35 -0.45 -0.24 0.15 -0.17 0.1210579 KATANNING COMPARISON WA -33.69 117.56 101 4 0.55 1.90 -1.17 -0.29 0.14 0.13 10614 NARROGIN WA -32.93 117.18 95 4 -1.05 0.90 0.36 -0.87 0.42 -0.12 10648 WANDERING COMPARISON WA -32.68 116.68 102 4 8.65 0.37 0.57 -0.23 0.66 0.12 0.42 0.14 0.15 12074 SOUTHERN CROSS WA -31.23 119.33 100 4 -19.07 -1.41 -1.25 -1.47 -0.90 -0.18 -0.38 0.31 -0.23 -0.2018070 PORT LINCOLN SA -34.72 135.86 110 5 -0.63 -0.94 0.33 21046 SNOWTOWN SA -33.78 138.21 93 5 -2.33 -1.27 -1.76 0.65 0.46 0.30 -0.39 -0.14 0.13 23000 ADELAIDE WEST TERRACE SA -34.93 138.59 92 5 -11.69 -0.54 -1.76 -0.26 -1.07 -0.18 -0.18 26026 ROBE COMPARISON SA -37.16 139.76 124 6 -0.42 -0.15 -0.14 29004 BURKETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -17.74 139.55 118 1 11.72 -3.61 -1.41 0.67 -0.72 0.40 0.38 -0.20 0.54 0.3230018 GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -18.29 143.55 113 1 41.21 0.69 1.51 0.22 0.27 0.16 0.12 0.11 0.19 30045 RICHMOND POST OFFICE QLD -20.73 143.14 115 3 -1.64 -0.27 0.11 0.31 -0.98 0.21 0.17 0.23 -0.14 -0.4433001 BURDEKIN SHIRE COUNCIL QLD -19.58 147.41 94 1 2.35 1.90 -0.14 0.70 -0.13 33047 TE KOWAI EXP STN QLD -21.16 149.12 100 2 -8.45 -1.37 -0.51 -0.62 -0.46 -0.18 34002 CHARTERS TOWERS POST OFFICE QLD -20.08 146.26 99 3 -14.46 -1.76 -0.32 0.56 -0.46 0.38 -0.36 -0.12 -0.11 -0.1835027 EMERALD POST OFFICE QLD -23.53 148.16 103 2 -20.01 1.70 0.71 -0.60 -0.12 -0.74 0.23 -0.24 38003 BOULIA AIRPORT QLD -22.91 139.90 120 3 4.08 0.23 -0.54 0.43 0.17 -0.15 39015 BUNDABERG POST OFFICE QLD -24.87 152.35 98 2 39039 GAYNDAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.63 151.61 115 3 -13.73 -0.11 -0.28 -0.71 -0.39 -0.33 -0.31 -0.26 40214 BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE QLD -27.48 153.03 99 2 -3.62 -2.02 -0.35 -0.14 40264 TEWANTIN POST OFFICE QLD -26.39 153.04 101 2 0.33 0.88 -0.13 41023 DALBY POST OFFICE QLD -27.18 151.26 99 3 -13.96 0.38 0.81 -1.48 -0.58 -0.19 -0.12 -0.26 -0.2641038 GOONDIWINDI POST OFFICE QLD -28.55 150.31 100 3 -27.25 0.33 -1.75 -0.79 -0.17 0.16 -0.55 -0.13 -0.11 -0.2746037 TIBOOBURRA POST OFFICE NSW -29.43 142.01 98 4 10.12 1.71 0.30 -0.30 0.63 -0.21 0.44 -0.32 -0.1248013 BOURKE POST OFFICE NSW -30.09 145.94 125 4 -45.11 -0.22 -1.30 -0.12 -0.45 0.42 -0.59 -0.46 -0.26 -0.2352026 WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT NSW -30.02 148.12 115 4 -11.32 0.28 -0.22 0.19 0.18 0.49 -0.33 -0.18 -0.23 -0.1555023 GUNNEDAH POOL NSW -30.98 150.25 132 4 -36.98 -0.75 -1.07 -0.64 -0.45 -0.39 -0.51 -0.80 -0.22 -0.17 -0.2456017 INVERELL COMPARISON NSW -29.78 151.11 123 4 -8.84 -0.37 -0.28 -0.23 -0.34 -0.40 -0.19 -0.22 63004 BATHURST GAOL NSW -33.42 149.55 125 7 -9.00 -1.99 -0.76 -0.52 -0.28 -0.22 65016 FORBES (CAMP STREET) NSW -33.39 148.01 125 4 -20.51 -1.44 -0.64 -1.09 -0.59 -0.54 -0.14 -0.30 -0.1566062 SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) NSW -33.86 151.21 149 5 1.12 0.96 74128 DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) NSW -35.53 144.95 145 4 -24.40 -0.62 -1.64 -1.07 -0.47 -0.82 -0.36 -0.47 -0.24 78031 NHILL VIC -36.33 141.64 111 2 3.28 0.37 0.83 0.31 -0.11 -0.10 0.11 82039 RUTHERGLEN RESEARCH VIC -36.10 146.51 96 4 0.77 -0.29 0.11 0.20 -0.23 0.14 0.14 86071 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE VIC -37.81 144.97 153 6 -0.71 -1.21 0.16 0.18 90015 CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.86 143.51 144 6 -1.36 -0.71 -0.20 91057 LOW HEAD (COMPARISON) TAS -41.06 146.79 106 7 94029 HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD) TAS -42.89 147.33 126 7 0.66 0.78

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APPENDIX G – OBSERVED CHANGING TRENDS IN NUMBER OF EXTREME HEATWAVE EVENTS AT LOCATIONS WITH LONG RECORD OF MORE THAN 90 YEARS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 111

Table G.3 – Changing trends in number of heatwave events in 46 long-record stations with temperature threshold of 40°C ID and Location Average change in number of events in 100 years Tmax >= 40C

Station No Station Name State Lat-

itudeLong-itude

No.of yrs

BCA Climate

ZoneHot day 1-day

hotspell2-day

hotspell3-day

hotspell4-day

hotspell5-day

hotspell6-day

hotspell7-day

hotspell8-day

hotspell9-day

hotspell10-day

hotspell4020 MARBLE BAR COMPARISON WA -21.18 119.75 105 1 -29.43 0.88 0.94 1.21 0.44 -0.15 0.16 -0.21 0.48 -0.53 -0.319034 PERTH REGIONAL OFFICE WA -31.96 115.87 95 5 2.33 1.20 0.51 9500 ALBANY WA -35.03 117.88 101 6 -0.42 -0.42 9510 BRIDGETOWN COMPARISON WA -33.96 116.14 101 5 -1.08 -0.67 -0.12 9518 CAPE LEEUWIN WA -34.37 115.14 101 5 9534 DONNYBROOK WA -33.57 115.82 101 5 0.40 0.71 9581 MOUNT BARKER WA -34.63 117.64 101 6 -0.37 -0.44

10073 KELLERBERRIN WA -31.62 117.72 98 4 -3.20 -1.80 -0.17 10111 NORTHAM WA -31.65 116.66 101 5 3.15 0.23 0.72 0.47 10579 KATANNING COMPARISON WA -33.69 117.56 101 4 1.29 0.87 0.22 10614 NARROGIN WA -32.93 117.18 95 4 -0.14 0.19 -0.17 10648 WANDERING COMPARISON WA -32.68 116.68 102 4 2.87 1.63 0.31 0.11 12074 SOUTHERN CROSS WA -31.23 119.33 100 4 -9.21 -3.26 -1.33 -0.26 -0.14 -0.13 18070 PORT LINCOLN SA -34.72 135.86 110 5 -0.32 -0.17 21046 SNOWTOWN SA -33.78 138.21 93 5 -0.60 -0.32 0.48 -0.42 -0.14 23000 ADELAIDE WEST TERRACE SA -34.93 138.59 92 5 -4.57 -1.61 -0.61 -0.13 -0.25 26026 ROBE COMPARISON SA -37.16 139.76 124 6 29004 BURKETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -17.74 139.55 118 1 0.92 0.10 0.17 0.14 30018 GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE QLD -18.29 143.55 113 1 5.59 1.18 0.40 0.17 0.29 0.15 30045 RICHMOND POST OFFICE QLD -20.73 143.14 115 3 -10.17 0.43 0.46 -0.48 -0.26 -0.27 -0.33 -0.13 -0.1733001 BURDEKIN SHIRE COUNCIL QLD -19.58 147.41 94 1 0.11 0.13 33047 TE KOWAI EXP STN QLD -21.16 149.12 100 2 34002 CHARTERS TOWERS POST OFFICE QLD -20.08 146.26 99 3 -3.73 -0.61 -0.48 -0.37 -0.15 35027 EMERALD POST OFFICE QLD -23.53 148.16 103 2 -5.82 -0.45 -0.93 -0.52 -0.14 38003 BOULIA AIRPORT QLD -22.91 139.90 120 3 -7.55 -1.09 0.25 -0.45 0.11 0.13 0.24 -0.2339015 BUNDABERG POST OFFICE QLD -24.87 152.35 98 2 39039 GAYNDAH POST OFFICE QLD -25.63 151.61 115 3 -1.51 -0.42 -0.16 -0.12 40214 BRISBANE REGIONAL OFFICE QLD -27.48 153.03 99 2 -0.19 -0.19 40264 TEWANTIN POST OFFICE QLD -26.39 153.04 101 2 41023 DALBY POST OFFICE QLD -27.18 151.26 99 3 -2.23 -0.60 -0.19 -0.20 41038 GOONDIWINDI POST OFFICE QLD -28.55 150.31 100 3 -7.45 -1.29 -0.71 -0.37 -0.31 -0.14 -0.11 46037 TIBOOBURRA POST OFFICE NSW -29.43 142.01 98 4 4.67 0.67 0.45 0.21 0.42 0.24 -0.11 48013 BOURKE POST OFFICE NSW -30.09 145.94 125 4 -31.57 -4.58 -2.42 -1.16 -0.66 -0.90 -0.33 -0.20 -0.14 -0.23 -0.1552026 WALGETT COUNCIL DEPOT NSW -30.02 148.12 115 4 -5.39 -0.82 -0.21 -0.24 -0.18 55023 GUNNEDAH POOL NSW -30.98 150.25 132 4 -9.38 -1.75 -1.06 -0.78 -0.28 -0.28 56017 INVERELL COMPARISON NSW -29.78 151.11 123 4 -0.73 -0.38 -0.12 63004 BATHURST GAOL NSW -33.42 149.55 125 7 -0.69 -0.19 -0.21 65016 FORBES (CAMP STREET) NSW -33.39 148.01 125 4 -4.36 -0.34 -0.66 -0.47 -0.25 66062 SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) NSW -33.86 151.21 149 5 0.14 0.11 74128 DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) NSW -35.53 144.95 145 4 -10.90 -2.21 -1.13 -0.60 -0.53 -0.17 78031 NHILL VIC -36.33 141.64 111 2 0.77 0.18 0.63 82039 RUTHERGLEN RESEARCH VIC -36.10 146.51 96 4 -0.35 0.32 -0.12 86071 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE VIC -37.81 144.97 153 6 -0.16 90015 CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE VIC -38.86 143.51 144 6 -0.17 91057 LOW HEAD (COMPARISON) TAS -41.06 146.79 106 7 94029 HOBART (ELLERSLIE ROAD) TAS -42.89 147.33 126 7

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APPENDIX H – HOUSE 1 BASE: PLAN AND CONSTRUCTION DETAILS

112 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011

APPENDIX H – House 1 Base: Plan and Construction Details

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APPENDIX H – HOUSE 1 BASE: PLAN AND CONSTRUCTION DETAILS

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 9 • October 2011 113

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