An Introdution of Energy Situation and Policy of ROK September 2010 Park, Jimin.
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Transcript of An Introdution of Energy Situation and Policy of ROK September 2010 Park, Jimin.
An Introdution of Energy Situation and Policy of ROK
An Introdution of Energy Situation and Policy of ROK
September 2010
Park, Jimin
Contents
Energy Situation
Energy Issues and Challenges
Energy Policy and Target toward 2030
I. Energy Situation
1. Economic Growth and Energy Consumption
ROK has shown a rapid growth in economy and energy consumptionduring past 40 years - Average annual growth rate (1970 2009): GDP 7.3%, Energy consumption 6.6%∼
4
Major Economic & Energy Indicator[1970=100]
Energy Consumption
GDP
100100
400400
700700
1,6001,600
1,9001,900
1,0001,000
1,3001,300
’70’70 ’74’74 ’78’78 ’82’82 ’86’86 ’90’90 ’94’94 ’98’98 ’02’02 ’09’09
GDP & Energy Consumption
19.7MTOE
240.5MTOE
70.2Trillion won
948.9Trillion won
GDP(Trillion won)
19701970 19981998 20092009 (70-98)(70-98)
Energy Con.(Mtoe)
(98-09)(98-09)
Per Capita Energy
(toe)
Energy/GDP(toe/million won)
AAGRAAGR
Energy consumption per capita continues to grow, but at a decreasing rate
Population(million capita)
Energy intensity has decreased to 0.25 toe/mln won as improving energy efficiency
577
46
166
49
242
(70-09)(70-09)
3.61 4.94
980
0.29 0.25
32
20
0.61
0.32
62 8.3% 4.9% 7.3%
1.3% 0.6% 1.1%
7.9% 3.5% 6.6%
6.6% 2.9% 5.5%
-0.4% -1.3% -0.6%
5
Energy sources have been diversified, but oil share has been still high - LNG and nuclear power use has been highly increased - But oil growth rate has been sharply decreasing
2. Energy Demand by Source & Sector
Primary Energy Demand by Source Final Energy Demand by Sector
’75’75 ’90’90 ’09’09
RE&Others
Oil
Coal
LNG
Nuclear
27.6MTOE
56.8
13.929.3
53.8
26.2
14.22.6
3.2
93.2MTOE
43.4
25.3
14.9
2.5
13.8
240.5MTOE
’75’75 ’90’90 ’09’09
23.4MTOE
75.1MTOE
182.7MTOE
Industrial
Transportation
Resi./Comm.
Public/Others
Final energy consumption continues to grow, but at a decreasing rate - Industrial energy use has been more than half of total energy use, but growth has slowed in recent years - Energy use in transport sector, which has been about 20 percent, has also slowed due to high oil price - Residential and commercial share has been falling somewhat as households have reached saturation for many energy end uses and electric devices have substituted for devices using other fuels
6
3. Projection of Energy Demand
Primary Energy Demand by Source (BaU)
RE&Others
Oil
Coal
LNG
Nuclear
233.4MTOE
342.8MTOE334.3
311.6
258.7
286.6 34.2%
24.7%
19.5%
5.9%
15.8%
38.3%
25.8%
17.7%
3.8%
14.4%
43.6%
24.3%
15.9%
2.5%
13.7%
Energy demand will continue to grow, though at a decreasing rate - Average annual growth rate : (2006-10) 2.6% → (2010-20) 1.9% → (2020-30) 0.6%
Share of LNG, nuclear power, and renewable energy will be steadily increased
But oil share will be decreased from 43.6% in 2006 to 34.2% in 2030, due to thehigh oil price, fuel substitution, and industrial structure change
41.2%
26.6%
14.3%3.8%
14.8%
36.9%
25.5%
18.4%
4.3%
14.8%
35.8%
25.1%
18.7%
5.0%
15.4%
source : KEEI, Long-term Energy Outlook, 2008
II. Energy Issues and Challenges
8
Due to the lack of indigenous natural resources, overseas energy dependencyhas increased to 96.2% - In 2009 energy import was decreased with the falling oil price, though the volume was almost unchanged
1. Energy Dependency on Overseas
Imports of Mineral Resource
10.810.8
22
44
66
88
1010
1212
1414Non-MetallicNon-Metallic
MetallicMetallicTotalTotal
[billion USD]
5.15.1 4.64.6 4.54.5
6.16.1
7.947.946.936.93
10.510.5
12.312.3
’07’07’06’06’05’05’04’04’03’03’02’02 ’08’08 ’09’09’00’00 ’01’01
14.514.5
Overseas energy dependency : Overseas metallic minerals dependency :
Overseas Energy Dependency
amount (billion USD)amount (billion USD)Import (MTOE)Import (MTOE)
33.733.7 32.332.3 38.338.349.649.6
66.766.7
85.685.6
95.095.0
141.5141.5
215.4215.4 214.8214.8 214.9214.9 226.6226.6 228.3228.3 238.7238.7 246.8246.8 255.5255.5 257.1257.1
91.291.2
’01’01 ’02’02 ’03’03 ’04’04 ’05’05 0606 ’07’07 ’08’08 ’09’09
Also, overseas dependency of metallic minerals has reached to 98.8%
9
2. Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency of ROK is one of the lowest in OECD countries(24th)
The higher share of manufacturing industry in GDP
- Share of service industry : ROK 57.2%, Japan 68.2%, USA 76.5%
The higher share of heavy energy consuming industries in manufacturing - Cement, Steel, Petrochemical : ROK 38%, OECD 22%
source : IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2008 Edition
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.10
0.00
0.32
ROK
0.21
USA
0.19
OECD
0.19
France
0.17
Germany
0.14
England
0.10
Japan
Energy intensity by OECD countries (toe/US$ 1,000)
10
3. GHG Emission and UNFCCC
ROK is the 9th largest country in emission of greenhouse gas
ROK is being pressured to become a member of Annex 1 in post-Kyoto protocol (after 2012)
source : IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, 2008
CO2 Emission by Countries(2006)
Greenhouse Gas Emission
Energy
Industry Process
Agri. / Waste
USA China Russia India
4489th
Japan
5,6971st
5,6072nd
1,2504th
1,2135th
’90’90 ’00’00 ’05’05
297.5297.5
528.6528.6591.1591.1
83.3%83.3%
6.7%6.7%10.0%10.0%
84.3%84.3%
11.0%11.0%4.7%4.7%
Transport19.7%
Industry31.5%
Generation34.3%
12.4%
Others2.1%Household
& Commercial(unit: MTCO2)
(unit: MTCO2)
Korea
1,5873rd
III. Energy Policy and Target toward 2030
12
Expansion in supply of renewable energy
Increase in capacity of nuclear power
Green technology development both in domestic and towards global markets
Strengthening overseas resources development
Stable energy supply
Energy efficiency improvement
Market-based price system
Low Carbon & Low Energy Consumption Low Fossil Fuel
Development of Green Energy Industry
Promotion of Energy Security
Active involvement in global initiatives for climate change
Strategy 1Strategy 1 Strategy 2Strategy 2 Strategy 3Strategy 3 Strategy 4Strategy 4
1. National Energy Policy for Future Development
13
2. Policy and Target for Renewable Energy
Renewable energy supply has increased at an annual rate of 17.2% during 1990~2008 (2.4% share in total energy consumption in 2008)
- Key sources for renewable energy : bio-fuel, wind power, solar energy- Key sources for renewable energy : bio-fuel, wind power, solar energyTarget for renewables share in energy mix : 11% (2030)Target for renewables share in energy mix : 11% (2030)
[1,000 TOE]
Supply Trend of Renewable Energy Target for Renewables (2030)
1,0001,000
’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’08
2,0002,000
3,0003,000
4,0004,000
5,0005,000
6,0006,000
0.36%
1.40%
2.06%
2.43%ShareShareSupplySupply
’08 ’30
GeothermalTide, Wave, OceanSolar photovoltaicHydroSolar thermalWindBiomassWaste material
14
3. Policy and Target for Nuclear Power
Nuclear power has contributed to the stable energy supply in Korea - The share of nuclear power in power generation : 36%
Nuclear power will continuously play a significant role in reducing energy imports and GHG emission - More advanced technology development required for safety improvement - Need to secure the sites of nuclear power plants and radio-active waste
Nuclear Power Target for Nuclear Power
Capacity (10MW)
Capacity Ratio(%)
Generation Ratio(%)
Capacity (10MW)
Capacity Ratio(%)
Generation Ratio(%)( )
2020 2030
25.0(34.2 )
33.5(48.9 )
40.6(59.0 )
4,2724,272
3,1523,152
2007
26.0(35.5 )
1,7721,772
2010
1,8721,872
1987 1990 2000 2003 2007
762762
1,3721,3721,5721,572
1,7721,772
595966
3636 2828 28282626
3636404041414949
99
15
4. Policy and Target for Energy Efficiency Improvement
Energy efficiency has improved 1.3% per year from 1998 to 2007
The stronger measures will be employed (improving 2.6% per year to 2030) - Promoting knowledge-based service industries (S/W, engineering, design, etc) - Developing high technologies in energy efficiency (GT, BT) - Fostering ESCO companies and introducing various systems for energy conservation
Targets by Sectors
’07 ’20 ’30
Target for Energy Efficiency
17 (44%)
7 (19%) 12
(32%)
2 (5%)
[MTOE]
Industry TransportHousehold
& Commercial
Others
300.4(Target)
240.5
342.8(improving
2.1% pa)
[MTOE]
Improving2.6 % pa
16
5. Policy and Target for Overseas Energy Development
Ratio of oil overseas production to oil import(`07)
ROK is the lowest in overseas energy activities among the major energyimporting countries
ROK pursues more active overseas resource developments - Target ratio of overseas oil production to national oil import : 40% (2030) • Strengthening of energy and economic cooperation with energy rich countries • Promotion of overseas exploration and production businesses to the companies • Strong government supports for fostering technologies and human resources over energy development
Japan China Italy Spain France
9%(’09)
22%27%(’08)
48%62%
97%RussiaRussia
Central Asia Central Asia
Middle East Middle East
AfricaAfricaSoutheast AsiaSoutheast Asia
AustraliaAustralia
South America South America
North AmericaNorth America
Korea
17
6. Policy and Target for of GHG Emissions Mitigation
Target for GHG emissions reduction : 30% reduction from BAU (2020)
Laying the groundwork for effective and sustained reduction of the emissions - Establishment of a legal and regulatory framework, carbon trading, a national GHG inventory report system - Managing forestation to pursuing to increase carbon absorption
Target for GHG emissions reduction Carbon Absorption by forests
(unit: MTCO2)
2012 20202009
1,452
1,613
1,854
20202005
594
741
570
Reducing
30%
BAU
Target
(unit: MTCO2)
Thank you for your attention!!