An information technology forecast for the architectural profession

EISEVIER Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

An information technology forecast for the architectural profession ’

Stephen Oliver, Martin Betts *

Department of Surveying University of Salford Salford, UK M5 4W

Abstract

Much of our research in IT in construction is concerned with developing technologies and prescribing how they can be applied to construction problems. Our rationale for our choice of technologies to push is often unstated and the relative significance of a range of technologies is rarely considered. The impact of emerging technologies on the strategic health of companies and professions is also rarely discussed. Few professions appear to be explicitly in control of how IT will impact their future.

This paper addresses both of these issues through the example of an IT forecast for the architectural profession. It does this by examining issues of technology forecasting and development by reviewing currently emerging IT’s and by conducting an opinion survey of which are of greatest significance to the architectural profession. The result is a relative assessment of the importance to architects of 10 technological mini-scenarios from which an overall architectural IT scenario is constructed.

Keywords: Technology forecast; IT; Architecture; Strategic planning

1. Introduction

Analysis of the current use that the construction industry makes of IT shows it to be limited com- pared with use in other sectors [4]. This also applies to the extent to which organisations in construction plan strategically for their future [5,17]. Within construction, the architectural profession lags behind other professions in both of these areas [12]. How- ever, within the architectural profession, current in- vestigations into the use of IT and strategic planning

separately propose measures that could be adopted immediately to realise the IT potential.

Little research has been carried out looking at the future of architecture as a profession [23], in con- junction with IT. This paper attempts to show how, by applying technology forecasting techniques based on using scenario analysis, the strategic potential of IT to the architectural profession in the medium term can be identified and exploited.

2. Architectural management

* Corresponding author. Architectural practices are knowledge-based or-

’ Discussion is open until August 1996 (please submit your ganisations, where people are traditionally the assets

discussion paper to the Editor on Construction Technologies and and its product a set of plans and documents that Engineering, M.J. Skibniewski). eventually realise a building. It is a high-value-added

0926-5805/96/$15.00 0 1996 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved SSDI 0926-5805(95)00012-7

264 S. Oliver, hf. Betts /Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

business that creates economic value through the development of the skills of its employees, leveraged through technical and organisational systems [11,29]. The knowledge-base is enhanced and expanded as more jobs are experienced by its members, new members introduced or relevant information made accessible. The former leads to experts, due to their long experience.

Unlike traditional businesses it is often the case that for architects, managing the practice is taken on as an extra task to their normal occupation. Since many join the profession to achieve creative acclaim, business success becomes secondary and strategic planning is almost unheard of 1401. In its own report the RIBA’s Strategic Study: Phase 1 [13] describes this state of affairs thus:

‘I the attitude of many in the profession to such

issues is at best characterised by suspicion or indif- ference, if not contempt”

A similar conflict exists between the role of information technologies and adoption of business techniques. The thought of using computers as an aid to design is still abhorrent to many architects who believe creativity should be left to pen and paper. There are some notable examples of some architectural practices changing their view on this as [7] shows. In a similar vein, Winch and Schneider [40] have shown that types of architectural practice differ in the way that they strategically approach their market.

“One of the ways professional services firms may

overcome current problems is through the strategic application of IT to leverage their scarcest resource, the talent of indiuiduals who make up the firm.

Well-applied IT tends to increase the knowledge, skills, and value of individuals. ” [ll]

3. Technology forecasting

Technologies, like businesses, must be planned strategically. Technology planning is based on the following key premises [8]: - Technology is an integral part of the businesses

and its planning.

. Key technologies require at least a 8 to 15 year time frame to develop, the time horizon of technology planning is significantly longer than that of business, [3].

* Technology development goes through multiple stages, each requiring different skills and talents.

- Technology builds on prior technology and science builds on prior science, except for rare ran- dom discoveries.

- Technology forecasting is a viable concept. - The behaviour traits of technologists are different

from those of businessmen.

3.1. Forecasting time-scale

Technology forecasts usually take the form of short, medium or long-run. Short-term forecasts of usually a year or less, deal with a single technology. Medium-run forecasts usually cover a 2-10 year period because the key technologies are already known and an accurate and reliable view of this timeframe requires forecasts of their rate of use and adoption. The long-run forecasts cover lo-20 years which is a time horizon long enough for new technologies to emerge. Long-run forecasts must therefore take into account existing, key and emerging technologies, their potential interrelationships and the wide range of uncertainty implicit in the forecast

id.

3.2. Technology prediction

To evaluate the importance of technology development implications it is necessary to use an orderly approach to technology predictions rather than a haphazard set of vague, biased opinions. Technology forecasting methods by themselves will not identify inventions, opportunities or threats. They do assist in the following: 1. Projecting rates of technology substitution. 2. Assisting in the management of technical and

Research and Development programs. 3. Evaluating the present value of technology. 4. Identifying and evaluating new products and pro-

cesses. 5. Analysing the value of new technologies to the

organisation.

S. Oliver, M. Belts /Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279 265

3.3. Characteristics of technology development

Historically it has been found that when the performance of a technology is plotted against time it takes the form of an “S” curve as shown in Fig. 1. Initially the performance increases slowly, partly due to its lax management. In the first part of the middle range the technology is better understood and applied and the performance increases more rapidly, controlled by sales-oriented management. As the technology reaches its most well-developed stage, controlled management of the technology takes over. Then as the technology matures, performance increase tapers off and management takes on a resource-oriented, or planning role. This observation forms the basis of several forecasting techniques as proposed by Bhalla [8] and Gibson and Nolan [19].

This relationship is valuable for predicting technology’s expected rate of application to problems and for comparing the performance of one technology with another. A series of S curves, one on top of the other, as shown in Fig. 2 illustrates technological change and the replacement of one technology by another over time.

Fig. 3 shows how technologies can be categorised as existing, key or emerging. Instead of measuring the technology in terms of its total performance on the vertical axis, the technology in this figure is measured in terms of sales of the product or production levels obtained. The horizontal axis represents time with the vertical dotted line labelled “now” representing the present. The broken line shows uncertainty of future trends and the range of possible

MeaSUre

of

Performance

Effolt I Expenditure I Time

Fig. 2. The “envelope curve of S curves”.

developments, illustrating the need for reliable technological forecasts.

In this illustration the curve representing the technology, peaks and eventually declines when its use in products or production declines. This happens if 1. the product or process using the technology is no

longer in demand; or 2. the product or process is replaced by an alterna-

tive, more efficient, cost-saving technology. All existing technologies, even those with well

developed applications in wide use, are threatened by alternative technologies and by changing market needs. Key technologies pose the greatest and most immediate threat: their development and use largely determine the remaining life and expected market- place for existing technologies. If a competing key technology gains rapidly in sales or production, use of an existing technology drops quickly. On the other

/

Effort I Expandiiure I Time

Fig. 1. The “S” curve of technological performance over time.

Sales

or

Production

NOW

Emerging

L

Time

Fig. 3. Characteristics of technological development.

266 S. Oliver, M. Betts /Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

Fig. 4. Technological discontinuity [35]

hand if barriers to a key technology cause its use to increase very slowly, then sales and production of the existing technology will not drop as quickly.

In the corporate planning process, it is generally assumed that incremental progress in technology will occur. However, past developments in a given technology cannot be extrapolated into the future, because every technology has its limits. The key to competitiveness is to determine when to shift resources to a technology with more potential. Richard Foster of McKinsey and Company states that the displacement of one technology by another (Techno- logical Discontinuity) is a frequent and strategically important phenomenon, see also Fig. 4. In the past new technologies have toppled entire industries!

Emerging technologies are usually known and recognised in their current time period and are candi- dates for replacing existing and key technologies. Although they may grow rapidly and eventually replace a key technology. However, they may also after experimentation and investigation, disappear altogether. They have not reached the same level of development, demonstration and application as the key technologies.

In relation to the professions this is an important factor in the adoption of technologies. As discussed, unless expected benefits can be shown, which in- cludes the longevity of a technology, then it will receive little or no response even though in the long term it may be responsible for better technologies. Inventions, by their very nature, cannot be foreseen but are often a result of continual research, develop-

ment and progress. The message is one of “you have to start somewhere and soon” rather than wait- ing for an ideal world which is unattainable.

4. The emerging information technologies

There are many information technologies that are already emerging. Those that are still theoretical or even hypothetical should not be discounted for our current long-term forecasts as the paper will explain. We will consider technologies concerned with both technology push and demand pull strategies as Betts and Ofori [6] argue that a combination of both is most likely in the real world and most beneficial and

economic. As there is no strict definition of IT, this paper

accepts the definition of [20], being “the field of IT encompassing: computer technology, telecommunications and office automation”. In relation to these technologies, the following observation is of rele- vance [31]:

“It is timely to go beyond solutions which mimic and

automate current procedures and processes. We must

consider the wider impact of IT and encourage the

construction industry to evolve in a way which max-

imises the benefits to be gained from IT. At the same time we to need to identify comprehensive solutions

which must be developed. Lessons can be learnt

from applying IT solutions borrowed from other industries. ”

In relation to these concepts, a survey has been made of the likely significance of a number of key emerging technologies. There were two basic criteria for the choice of the technologies. These were

those that have already been identified as having potential in the field of construction, and therefore of possible significance to the profession itself, i.e. those that research or work has already been initiated on. those that can be seen to be possibly utilised by the profession both now and in the future. A short description of these technologies is appro-

priate to our discussion here. These technologies are described through optimistic observations from pro- ponents. It remains to be seen whether they can be

S. Oliver, M. Betts/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279 267

seen to be key or emerging by the architectural profession.

4.1. Multimedia interfaces

“Communication between a human being and a computer requires a medium of communication.... A

medium involves a language of communication which

encompasses an underlying syntax and semantics. ” 111

Marmollin [30] argues that multimedia should be seen as a new approach to system design rather than a new technology, and that our definition of multimedia should not be based upon current technology. Further to this, he points out that multimedia repre- sentations should attempt to utilise the whole mind and therefore, the greater number of senses they affect, the better the communication. Alty and Bergen [2] introduce the principle of “telepresence”-the connection of the interface to the real world: that is, being able to see, hear and feel as close to the “real thing” as possible.

Examples of multi-media interfaces include: . “ClearBoard”: Ishii and Arita [24] describe a

glass pane where the participants see each other through it and onto it they can write or draw with felt pens all the time maintaining eye contact, and therefore interpreting the communication much better due to eye movement and gestures. It was found by Olsen et al. [34] in a study of design professionals that the designs produced were of a higher quality than those of the control groups who worked in the more traditional fashion. This promotes the method of thinking while you work with others, rather than an iterative process of passing information, working on it and then passing it back and so on.

* Video Conferencing: Alty [l] proposes that future video conferencing facilities will provide “spatial video” that is video that gives a spatial effect to the conversation, so that when one speaker inter- rupts, other participants will see all the others look in that speaker’s direction. Backed up by stereo sound, electronic drawing pads and so on, the effect will be much more realistic and therefore enhance the process of communication.

- Technology On-site: A European RACE project

.

BRICC (BRoadband Integrated Communications for Construction) is investigating the co-ordina- tion and interchanging of the computer-based data required on many building sites. The “multimedia hard-hat” contains a miniature camera (providing a view of what is being looked at), a cellular telephone link and a 1 inch cube private eye display mounted below the peak of the hat which shows a full resolution PC screen floating at infinity in one eye [26]. The costs in both time and loss of work due to travel to site (especially in remote or inaccessible locations) may be re- moved by the use of such systems. At the same time more frequent inspections would be possible with less disruption. Site managers could also benefit simply due to the fact that the architect could see what was being discussed, previously an arduous task often leading to misunderstand- ing. Virtual Meeting Room: BICC are developing the concept of the Virtual Meeting Room. This uses the metaphor of the meeting room (like the now very common metaphor of the PC’s desktop) which hides the communications technology from the users. The room has a shared whiteboard, to which documents can be sent. Project documents are stored within the room and each individual has a briefcase which contains private documents and tools. Important moments of the discussion can be preserved on video. You can enter the room whenever you want to add or extract information, saving physical transfer by post, etc., and by arranging meetings, work with others at the

same time. Desk-Like Interfaces: To cater for the preferences of those who prefer working by pen and paper on a desk are interfaces such as the Digital Desk. They allow you to write on paper and the image is then grabbed by either a responsive desk or an overhead camera. The image can then be moved by finger onto a projected digital image at the side. Toolglass is a system where an apparent transparent layer lies above the computer screen but underneath the cursor. It returns to the process of working with both hands, one accurately ma- noeuvring the cursor whilst the less active hand does more general tasks such as zooming in and out. Another system by the BT telecommunica-


tions company allows you to move text with your fingers on the screen surface

4.2. Hypermedia systems

Combining the concept of multimedia (text, still pictures, moving pictures, video, sound speech,

drawings, animated graphics) with hypertext systems (a non-sequential writing and reading medium built up from nodes of text chunks (and graphics) with links between them) gives us the concept of hypermedia. Hypermedia systems present the possibility of getting access to very large volumes of information, which will be even bigger when the systems are logically connected into the ISDN (integrated services digital networks) that are now being slowly installed [9].

An example of this type of application is Grant’s Urban Information System [21] which does not attempt to create “new” data but attempts to collate and repackage what did exist as a regularly updated electronic conspectus of the city of Glasgow. By using the interface you can obtain data on all aspects of city life-including social, political, economic and geographical features. It is readily apparent that the value of the data is increased by the ability to cross-reference facts and topics with ease. For instance, it allows you to choose a restaurant, find out its location and then shows how you would get there by public transport. The future will allow for further integration of new information and also more media formats, such as hard copies, sound, and so on.

4.3. Telecommunications

All of the above require complicated transfers of data whether digital, video or other forms. The present increase in their use and variety of applications have led the telecommunication technologies to advance accordingly. Home phones are now capable of transmitting video images, plus a host of other features not previously possible. Satellite access has enabled the opening up of world-wide communications. The potential in these systems is considerable. The latest communication medium is infra-red laser light, so that internal office communication via ca- bling will be redundant. To architects, working from home becomes more feasible which in turn has

repercussions on the role of the architects office. Managing projects abroad will become possible without visiting them.

Group working, and sharing a project with other practices will become more viable with these enhanced links [22]. Cellular phone and Broadband radio technology will also allow freedom away from traditional networks, allowing access to and from data virtually anywhere.

4.4. Decision support systems (DSS)

Construction is an information-intensive industry and despite the problems in communicating and co- ordinating project decisions, the industry has been slow to seek “better” ways for its decision-makers to access and apply relevant knowledge. The industry must therefore develop a strategy by which IT is effectively integrated with the building procurement process [27].

In the profession there are two potential areas for the application of DSS. The first concerns the running of the practice as a business and secondly the support of the design process. Although treated separately in the description here the two sides will support and affect each other in an iterative process.

4.5. Executive information system (EIS)

EISs aim to support managers in making strategic planning decisions as well as keeping control of day to day operations. They concern information on both internal organisational factors and external market ones. The concept of integration has been epitomised thus: “The software and technologies and the inter-

faces between them will become more and more “seamless”. This will mean that CAD will be linked to personal productivity packages, procurement methodologies, construction planning and so on. All these will be managed by sophisticated document control systems that can incorporate these into the practice management such as EISs” [37].

Collection and collation of this data takes up an immense amount of time. Studies by Munday [33] suggest that in construction organisations, managers spend as much as half their time collecting and analysing data. If current trends proceed then the future holds the hope that EISs will be semi-auto-


matic, informing when a process is going wrong or when an operation should be carried out and so on.

4.6. Knowledge/case based systems

“Case-based reasoning is a well-defined paradigm in artificial intelligence. It is based on the premise that humans also reason from specific experiences rather than by only following a set of general guidelines” [18]. Colajanni et al. [lo] illustrate that the three main processes involved in creating such a tool are 1. Encoding and indexing all technical data. 2. Giving semantics to sketches. 3. Identifying inconsistencies generated in this pro-

cess, i.e. checking. By using previous cases as examples it is possible

to assist the designer in the best previous solution for particular problems. The system described will automatically update drawings. The future holds the prospect of a system that will automatically generate full working drawings from sketches, checking and incorporating all aspects of technical design as well as qualitative decisions.

4.7. Computer integrated construction/computer in-

tegrated manufacturing

Recent innovations in computer software technology in such areas as ISBS, database management, simulation, 3D CAD systems, engineering and management application software, and object-oriented programming have provided a useful mechanism to integrate, organise and structure complex design and construction planning information. The major elements of the integrated/construction planning system consists of planning (resource planning, site planning, financial planning), preliminary design, engineering, detailed design by 3D CAD, working drawings, cost estimating, procurement, cost control and planning, working drawings, construction planning (scheduling, temporary facility planning, etc.) Once these are fully integrated it is then possible to proceed into site and factory automation.

4.8. Factory automation

The factory could be temporarily on-site, or a traditional factory anywhere in the world. The neces-

sary data arrives from the designers at exactly the right time and in a form that can be used directly by their manufacturing process, such as CAD/CAM. This method of “Just in time” (JIT) will allow, for instance, the steel to be fabricated and delivered to site just in time for erection. This is an ideal state of operation for a construction site. The benefits of these efficiencies should be translated into faster, smoother projects at less cost.

4.9. Site automation and management system

Presently, developmental efforts are being fo- cused on fully-automated construction. A site automation system might utilise a self-elevating automated assembly platform which provides an integrated building construction environment, typically consisting of 1. 2. 3.

4.

5.

transportation of prefabricated material to site, automated storage of materials on site, automated transportation of material from storage to the building, automated placement and adjustment of the elements, assembly by robots. The benefits of such a system would be that it

provides a protected working environment, improves productivity and safety, and resolves some of the difficulties associated with application of single-task oriented robots. Such a system, as it is being developed in Japan, is described in detail by Miyatake et al. [32].

Further to this and more probable at least in the intermediate stage are semi-automatic robots.

Single-task robots that assist human counterparts already exist in the form of drills, gas torches, etc. Semi-automatic robots would go a step further and would almost be a helping hand, with machines that lift heavy objects and place them perfectly, effort- lessly with control by hand that would take the work of six men and would also be hazardous.

4.10. Virtual reality (VR)

The following description of the way VR may get applied in construction is adapted from [ 15,28,38,42]. By wearing a form of eyepiece such as miniature TV screens in the form of goggles to give stereoscopic

270 S. Olicer, M. Betts/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

vision, and clothing that can respond to and affect the wearer, interaction within an electronic graphics environment is possible. Adaptation from current 3D modelling techniques is possible already. This ability allows for a number of future possibilities which are highly likely due to the involvement of both military and entertainment interests.

Future possibilities are as Patrice Gelaband, Chief Scientist at Sense 8, USA states, “Virtual reality gives a whole new real estate to be developed”. MacLeod [28] interprets this as: “future architects may find themselves designing virtual environments rather than buildings which may be radically different from anything ever designed before”.

Sound, enables people to communicate within the environment and to simulate real world sound sources such as crowd noise, or the ambient sounds of walking within different spaces, for example. Taste and smell are harder to achieve as they linger within the body, unlike sight and sound, but should not be discounted.

It is possible to metaphorically represent a problem in VR and then by immersion in it get a better grasp of the problem and therefore a new outlook on its solution. An example might be to represent a building’s heating system in 3D and by “flying” around or entering into it realise better solutions and even change them from within the VR environment.

The ability to choose, see and touch objects would enable you to have VR product catalogues and in the virtual world incorporate them into your scheme. The immediate world is calibrated, not just painted over to give photo realism (which is currently possible). Simulations are possible taking into account weather, time of day and year, geographic location, surface reflection, sound, and so on.

By being able to interact with the VR environment-turn on lights, open doors, move furniture- you can test the validity of spaces as well as their quality. In principle it should be possible to let virtual people automatically test the building and also “inhabit” it. “What if’ ’ scenarios could also be carried out which would not incur the costs of real physical simulations.

4. I I. Teleoperation

Teleoperation is the operation of a remote robot, which reacts exactly to the user’s movements or

commands whilst the robot transmits its 3D real world in sight, sound and touch back to the operator.

4.12. Holography

MIT’s Media Lab is developing digital holography that could turn digital data into a holographic image which might then be sculpted in the air by gloved hand.

4.13. True volume imagers

Systems being developed by Volumetric Imaging use a cylindrical display that displays an image from any angle in 3D, and by the use of polarising filters on the cylinder can present behind the image on the other side an opaque background such as a skyscape

[42].

4.14. 3-D physical models

CAD systems can produce models with processes often used in computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) for product design. This “solid prototyping” gener- ates models of 3D images by using high powered lasers to fuse metal powders or light sensitive plas- tics, forming a physical model. However, this is difficult to implement at present, when an object has many surfaces inside other surfaces, as in the sim- plest house.

4.15. 3-D visual modelling

A synchronised screen and pair of glasses which flicker alternatively from left eye to right produces a convincing 3D effect at very little cost in comparison to VR.

4.16. In general

Results based on a questionnaire speculating about the use of IT in construction in the future proposed that

Computers will be of orders of magnitude faster than today and in many cases they will leave the desktop. Their wealth of power will be used for managing information exchange, supporting very high-level

S. Oliver, M. Bet&/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279 271

programming languages, graphics and artificial intelligence. Computers will be transparently intercon-

nected to the extent that telephones are today. Most project information will be available to all project

participants and its exchange will be facilitated by

the use of intelligent data objects and industry-wide information standards. Computer users will be able

to use “program generators” or purchase software from commercial developers who create applications by assembling lower-level software objects.

Graphical user interfaces will be standard, while

paper, voice, and video interfaces will be common. A

wide variety of techniques will be available for collecting data from construction sites. Numerous

computer applications will generally play an impor-

tant role in supporting the human project manager.

[161

Information technologies should provide easier ways to monitor quality, quality control and assur- ance all of which are becoming more important. Systems will deal with these issues as they arise and will be “invisible”. Information technologies often realise undiscovered talent and new avenues.

Given the above descriptions of technologies, what we now need to do is attempt to identify through technology forecasting techniques, which of these key and emerging technologies are likely to have a significant long-term effect on the architecture pro-

fession.

5. Methodology

5.1. Technology forecasting methodologies

There are 10 to 20 widely used forecasting techniques which can be classed into four major categories: 1. Surveillance 2. Projective 3. Normative 4. Integrative

Surveillance techniques involve the search and evaluation of information. They are based on two basic observations: - Most successful innovations go through similar

stages of developments.

. There is a large time scale between each stage of development. This does not suit the requirements here as it is

too detailed and the time in monitoring and tracking

can be very long. This paper highlights the possibilities and probabilities.

Projective techniques are based on the concept that the past is an indication of the future. It assumes that as long as socio-economic forces of the past do not change significantly, past patterns of change will continue in the future. It is for this reason that this technique is not suitable as the architectural profession at present is experiencing unprecedented change.

Normative techniques are based on the assump- tion that future technology developments will be driven by socio-economic needs. Therefore if one can identify the future needs of society one can forecast the technological needs of the future. This is also difficult to apply to this paper as the projection of society in S-20 years is extremely hazardous due to current forces of great societal and industrial change.

Integrative techniques: The first three technology forecasting methodologies categories involve the projection of developments in a single technology or a small group of technologies. It is obvious that technical developments take place in an interactive environment, where a development in one technology can trigger or accelerate advance in other technologies. Thus forecasts about the future must not only take other technical and non-technical developments into account, but must also specify these relationships.

There are three types of integrative techniques: 1. Cross-impact analysis 2. Mathematical models 3. Scenarios

Cross-impact analysis addresses influences on future trends explicitly by mathematical formulae. By cross-impacting the probability of a trend happening with another the likelihood of a compounded probability of a trend occurring can be discovered. This process can continue cross-impacting many factors. This is not suitable for this paper as it is only considering two types of trends.

Mathematical models, together with the use of computers, can consider many more factors than might otherwise be possible. Similar to cross-impact


analysis, this is not suitable as many trends are needed.

5.2. Scenarios

Of all the integrative techniques the most applica- ble to this paper’s framework is that of Scenarios. This method examines and presents the interaction between projections of a number of technical and non-technical factors to combine them into an integrated description of the future. Since a scenario paints a multifaceted portrait of the future, it allows more consideration of “ real world’ ’ situations and adds both breadth and depth to decisions about future operations. Moreover because of its “story ori- entation”, it often allows the organisation to con-

sider alternative futures in a serious but non-threaten- ing manner.

The key to successful technology forecasting involves an appreciation of the holistic environment in which technology operates and consists of social, political, economic, environmental, ecological, technological and competitive forces.

Wills [41] advocates that the evaluation of technological change should not be limited to specialists but should include marketing, sales and personnel people, for example, because one is seeking technological opportunity and creative insights regardless of their source.

Porter’s Competitive Advantage [36] also recommends the corporate use of scenarios because they

allow a firm to move away from dangerous single point forecasts of the future in instances when the future cannot be predicted. encourage managers to make their assumptions explicit. He also recommends the use of industry

scenarios rather than just a single business forecast.

Scenario construction

It must be stated that scenarios give an appreciation of the future rather than a definitive picture. Scenarios allow for different depths of analysis. Dyson [14] argues that sometimes a “shirt-sleeve”, adaptive approach is as effective as an exhaustive and extensive study, sometimes being even more

accurate and/or enlightening. In the architectural profession, although in a competitive market, each member by association acts together, possibly due to their education, artistic nature and as discussed ear- lier, the conflict between running a business and their creativity. This in some ways helps the process of finding an overall, common vision. The following scenario construction method, to be used here, is an adaptive composite of Wheelen and Hunger’s [39] and Dyson’s [ 141 methodologies:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5. 6. 7.

Prepare background. Establish the current state of the profession and its relation to societal values (e.g., economic, socio-cultural, technological and political-legal). Identify the profession’s mission (why it’s in business!). Basic objectives. Policies. Select critical indicators from 1. Identify those factors that are likely to have most effect on the future (i.e., the profession’s points of vulnerabil- ity and leverage). Establish past behaviour for each indicator. Iden- tify what happened in the past in these areas, are there trends assumptions can be made from? Verify potential future events. Determine factors that will definitely occur in the planning time frame. Forecast each indicator. Write scenarios. Select “optimum response” strategy.

The number of scenarios developed is usually between 1 and 4, often based on the number of indicators, which should be kept to a minimum. The greatest failure of these forecasts is that they are only as accurate as their underlying assumptions.

One of the main reasons behind this methodologi- cal approach is that in a modern dynamic environment of a manufacturing base with large resources to fund Research and Development, technology can be made to suit and even invented. The case however, is that, despite the costs involved in the construction process, the percentage of revenue the architect re- ceives for his work is very small. As a result the role of the architect in developing and initiating technologies is limited. However by looking to the future and adapting and adopting new technologies to their specific needs, the profession should be at the fore- front of technologies along with their contempo- raries.

S. Oliuer, hf. Betts/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279 273

7. Significance of trends

To instil a greater degree of realism to this ideal future scenario, each trend according to scenario analysis methodology undergoes a weighting process to determine its significance, which can then be tested by a survey of practising professionals.

It is necessary to attach values to the scenarios to measure the significance of the trend. This is achieved by first, attaching a probability factor of a trend occurring. If, when considering a certain technology, there was a low probability of it occurring, this would recognise that it would not be appropriate to consider it further. Secondly, it is necessary to attach an importance factor to the trend in relation to the profession. If great importance were attached to the trend then this would highlight an area of concern. By compounding the two values, the first of the probability of a trend occurring, and secondly, its importance, it is possible to arrive at a true represen- tation of a trend’s significance to the profession therefore highlighting those technologies that are of greatest impact on the profession, see Table 1.

The data from a survey based on this methodology is first placed in scatter charts where the importance of a trend is plotted on the x-axis and the probability of an event occurring plotted on the y-axis, see Fig. 5. The scatter pattern of all the data can then be analysed and a mean for each trend found.

Data largely falling in the - Lower left quadrant signifies a trend that has little

chance of occurring and if it did would have little importance to the profession.

* Upper left quadrant signifies a trend that has a high probability of occurring but is of little importance to the profession and can do little to shape it.

- Upper right quadrant signifies a high probability of the event occurring and of great importance to the profession and should therefore shape it.

low

hgh

l 0

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0 0

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Fig. 5. Trends map.

* Lower right signifies a low probability of occur- rence but very important if it did occur. These would all have slightly different implica-

tions for the architectural profession attempting to strategically plan for its future.

8. Individual scenario construction

The basis of the scenario analysis in this paper is to illustrate, in relation to a typical day of an architect’s office, what tasks the architecture of the future will carry out, coupled with the technologies that will assist them.

In the creation of these future scenarios the most significant factors of the architectural trends are associated with those of the most appropriate of the emerging technologies (possibly highlighting new tasks that have no immediately envisageable technologies). The result should create a new set of “trends” of the most likely outcomes of associations between the profession’s trends and ITS in the future. These linked trends can be seen as “mini” scenarios. It is probable that some trends may require more than one technology and conversely some technologies may be suitable for many trends. This set of trends should then form an ideal scenario of the

Table 1

Significance of trends (after [25])

Significance of trend = Probability of an event occurring X importance to the company/practice


Table 2

Trends summary

The emerging information technologies

Multimedia interfaces

Hypermedia systems

Telecommunications

Decision support system

Executive information systems

Knowledge/case based systems

Computer integrated construction/

Computer integrated manufacturing

Site automation and management system

Virtual reality (VR)

Teleoperation

Holography

True volume imagers

3D physical models

3D visual modelling

Architectural profession trends

The institution

Facilities management

Change in the generic typology of individual practices

Individual practices

New services

costs

Clients’s demands

Property developers

Changes in practice size

The office

Competition

Environmental issues

Intelligent buildings

Products and materials

Prefabrication

future where the profession is more fully served by its IT requirements.

A summary of architectural trends and emerging technologies was constructed, see Table 2. The list on the left is of the emerging ITS described in Section 4. The list on the right is of changes we perceive are occurring in the architectural profession. These two lists were then distilled further by associ- ating the most important trends in the profession with related, similarly important emerging technologies. This process identified ten major technologies that would appear likely to have the most effect on the architectural profession in the year 2010 (this date being set as a datum to represent the long-term future).

Some of these were then sub-categorised for individual distinction within the main technology. These are given in Table 3. It was then possible to con- struct a series of possible trend scenarios, describing particular technologies and how they might be used in and by the profession in the future. It was necessary to perform the mix this way round rather than suggest the technologies for the architectural profession’s trends as the technologies formed a “core” from which many trends and new roles could accom- modate, whereas each trend or new role would possibly consist of many technologies and the respondents would have a more difficult time matching the two.

Some underlying emerging information technologies have been purposely omitted from the selection,

such as object-oriented data bases, data exchange systems and so on, due to the fact that they underpin at a lower level, higher level concepts, and are possible means to these ends, but not necessarily certain in the future. As an example, in the future, a different database architecture than those envisaged today may be used to support more rapid and wider

Table 3

Scenarios

1. Telecommunications:

i. Between those in the construction process

ii. overseas

iii. working from home

2. Interfaces:

i. Speech

ii. Input tools

iii. Visualisation tools

3. Hypermedia

4. Multimedia

5. Decision support systems

6. Executive information systems

7. Computer integrated construction:

i. Computer-integrated construction/design ii. Computer-integrated manufacture

8. Robotics:

i. Robots on-site

ii. Semi-automatic robots

9. Virtual reality:

i. Presentation tool ii. Design tool

10 Physical modelling

S. Oliuer, M. Betts /Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279 275

Table 4

Questionnaire weiehtine

Probability % Importance

No chance O-20

Unlikely 21-40

Likely 41-60

Very likely 61-80

Guaranteed 81-100

None

Some importance

Average importance

Very important

Essential

ranging data-retrieval systems, but the actual concept of a powerful, comprehensive, data retrieval system itself, is more important. Indeed by predicting the future, high-level concepts of ITS, the lower level computer applications may be developed specific to the concept more appropriately than applications that are taken from elsewhere and adapted.

Summary of All Data

60

X

20

0

9. Data collection and analysis

To execute the study, the scenarios which are listed and described in full in the appendix, were presented to a selected sample of 60 architects known to be interested and/or knowledgeable about the way that architects might use technology in the future. The sample cannot be considered to be repre- sentative of the architectural profession as a whole and was not designed to be. As such, the data that are presented here should be treated in a relative rather than an absolute way.

The questionnaires used in the survey asked respondents to attribute two numbers between 0 and 100 to reflect their perception of the likelihood of the scenario occurring and of its significance to the architectural profession, see Table 4.

l X

~omnunlcauons-interacuve mommunicatlons-Foreign

&mmnmicationshome

XSpeech Interface

XDesign Input Toolls

ODesign Visualisation

“Hypermedia

Wultinmdia

recision Support Systems

*xecutive Information Systems

onputer Integrated Construction

zonputar Integrated Manufacture

Robots on site

~Semi-automatic Robots

irhml Reality as Presentation

+Virhml Reality as Design Tool

-Automated Prototyping

Axes as means of all probabilities 8 importances

Fig. 6. Summary of all data with weighted axes.

276 S. Oliver, M. Betts/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

Of the 60 questionnaires sent out, 36 were returned, all without errors, giving a 60% return rate. To further the analysis, a mean for both sets of data for the probabilities and levels of importance for each question were calculated. This mean value for the questions was also plotted on the trends map, which gives a consensus and a fixed point from which to analyse moves away from it and comparison to the rest of the trends. This is the way that relative rather than absolute analysis is made.

We can see from Fig. 6 that most scenarios were adjudged to be in the upper right but some in the lower left, upper left, and lower right.

The plot of all the average trends revealed that the majority were in the upper right, representing trends that would be important, whilst the technologies were likely. This suggests that the profession’s ex- pectations of IT use within the industry is generally widely spread, but optimistic, with the technologies being likely and the importance slightly above average. However, 2 sets of 2, related technologies were diametrically opposed outwith this cluster. Firstly robots on-site and semi-automatic robots showed significant negative trends in that they were considered unimportant and unlikely to occur. However Design Input tools and Visualisation tools showed positive trends in that they were considered very important and very likely to occur.

10. Results

The three top rated scenarios in overall significance were all associated with design and presentation tools, Design Visualisation Interfaces, Design Input Tools and Virtual Reality as a presentation tool. This, as previously discussed, is most probably accounted for by wants rather than needs and also because out of all the ITS, these three can be related to most closely by the profession.

Scenarios based on interactive communications (6th), and Computer Integrated Construction (4th), scored within 4% point of each other and came after the top three. The significance of this could be that after tools to visualise and design, the next most important issue realised is that of interactive communications and team work at all stages of the project. Hypermedia came fifth. The possible significance of

this is that the main task of design once concepts have been determined is adding information.

The virtual reality as design tool scenario ranked 7th, suggesting its importance is less than its worth as a presentation tool. Scenarios ranked 8th and 9th were multimedia and automated prototyping, once again revealing the preference for visualisation methods for design. In 10th place was the Computer Integrated Manufacturing scenario suggesting the re- alisation of this increasing trend. The 11th ranked scenario was Speech interface, the lowest of options for input tools. The 12th and 14th scenarios were DSSs and EISs, showing an aversion to these assis- tants which is significant, as they could help in the tasks the profession dislikes most intensely. The 13th scenario was home communication, appreciating that this is probable but suggesting that the profession wishes to remain working in a team/office environment. The 15th scenario was Communications foreign, suggesting that the profession does not see foreign operators as either threats or opportunities. Lastly, 16th and 17th are semi-automatic robots and robots on-site, suggesting that the profession doubts that these will have any real significance upon itself even if they happen.

11. Conclusions and discussion

An overall future scenario for the long-term future of the architectural profession in the light of IT, as constructed by the data is

The profession will use a host of high level input design tools such as computer screen draughting

boards, electronic sketch pads and image grabbing techniques, that allow the almost effortless manipula-

tion of graphics and data. Ideas will be much more easily transferred and represented whilst losing little

of their original concept. The images will be viewed on large screens like old plan drawings. Details can be zoomed into and many “mini’ screens could be brought into view. Three-dimensional images and walk rounds will be instantaneous, with realism as good as video footage of real buildings with people moving within them, and the external environment such as weather, time of day acting upon it also. Virtual reality will be used extensively in presenta-


tions, and also used in some design work. CADD drawings will be integrated interactively with others on the design team and the constructors will be able

to automatically order materials off them, schedule work and so on. Physical models will be constructed automatically to add another way of visualising de-

signs and therefore ensuring of good ones. The tools

available will allow the profession to concentrate

more on designing visually and be less involved with details. The running of the practice will remain the

same, as will its general set up, with very few

members working from home or practices working abroad. Construction on site will be of less concern

to the profession but communication to and from it,

however far away, will be easy.

lation census to street sewer history and so on could be accessed, and the relevant parts retrieved. It is especially good for information that you cannot get by just visiting a place-all of this without leaving your seat! and all of which, if done singly and by hand would be almost impossible. This type of system would for instance connect a network of suppli- ers’ databases together with statutory legislation, thereby giving the opportunity to sift through those products that meet your specification.

Appendix A. The scenarios

1. Telecommunications: New technologies such as satellite, broad-band radio and infra-red beam technologies offer cableless communication to virtually anywhere in the world. Offices themselves will be cableless for many functions such as telephones and computers. Coupled with other facilities such as TV, interactive discussions with visuals will be possible.

2. Interfaces: Speech and image recognition will allow documents to be recorded and retrieved much more easily. Speech can be used to activate systems such as function commands in CAD packages, saving time and effort, at least 30-40%. Current dicta- tion will be input directly to a word processing system. New tools for inputting data other than by keyboard and mouse are being developed as well as the interfaces we see them on. Pens will draw directly onto large drawing board screens that go back to early draughting methods but are much more productive. Changes in how the design is relayed back to us will also come about. Most computer screens are small presently, even though architects usually design onto large sheets; new screens will address this issue.

4. Multimedia: Multimedia covers technologies that affect the senses. The more senses and interaction you have the more multi the media is. In architecture, problems exist in communicating, on a phone for instance, a design idea or construction fault which is difficult to describe. By incorporating stereo sound, cameras and translucent screens, which project an image of the recipient, onto which you can also draw or project a computer image, this enables an almost face-to-face situation where every gesture, eye movement and intonation of voice can be ab- sorbed. By interconnecting with more than one user it is possible to set up a conference room in which individuals would be able to turn to face someone as they speak and see everyone else doing the same. Meetings could be recorded and accessed easily and without as much effort in organising venues and travelling. Other forms of multi media allow you to mix mediums, such as incorporating your “design” into a real video.

5. Decision Support Systems: These are similar in respect to hypermedia database systems, in that they can provide relevant information when needed. Fu- ture systems however will go beyond merely providing timely and accurate information-they will be interactive with the design process. By using previous “cases” and a selective procedure the system will make alterations to drawings. As an example, given a bathroom plan and a specification, the system would plan the most optimum layout for both ergonomic considerations and those of mechanical servicing.

3. Hypermedia: Systems are being developed that 6. Executive Information Systems: To make busi- connect large databases of information in all types of ness decisions it is necessary to collect and collate a formats. All data is inter-referenced and up-dated lot of data. Further to this, it is also necessary to constantly providing a powerful data-retrieval sys- make decisions on day to day business as well as tem. A typical system could include 3-D maps of long- and short-term strategic planning. The data cities from which, for example, data covering popu- comes from both within the practice and from out-

278 S. Oli~ler, M. Betts/Automation in Construction 4 (1996) 263-279

side, such as market research. Architects have long been known for their lack of business acumen and future Executive Information Systems will collect data automatically for them, from the new comput- erised systems such as CAD, work in progress, payroll and so on and integrate them into a whole, from which different aspects of business needs may be extracted. Further to this, new systems will be able to run automatically, providing timely information when needed, whether warning of problems such as non-payments or when to invest surplus profits for maximum benefit.

7. Computer Integrated Construction: As already mentioned, future IT systems will be connected both within and outside the practice. What this entails is that engineers, for instance, can take off their needs directly from your computer with no paper changing hands. The structural “frame” can then be returned electronically and incorporated directly into the design. With the use of Decision Support Systems as well, any problems could be brought to light. This is Computer-Integrated Construction/design. Further to this individual elements would be dealt with in the same way. Pre-cast floor slab information could be sent to the manufacturer at exactly the right time to ensure they are manufactured to the correct size and delivered to site just prior to instalment. Lay times and costs in altering design to suit mistakes or return or modification of products would be reduced to a minimum. This is known as Computer-Integrated

Manufacture. 8. Robotics: As a part of computer-integrated

construction and manufacturing, robotics aim to automate construction, or at least in parts. With the increase in pre-fabrication, “clip-on” parts and modular design systems, their frequency of use will increase. A sample system would transport material (from a central holding bay on-site), to the structure by buggy, from which another task-specific robot would take the product (such as a cladding panel) and place it onto the structure. Since the structure was designed on computer the robots would not have to be programmed in a separate move; the initial data of where and when would be contained within the original CAD document. This anticipates total automation of production. However semi-automatic processes as well could be used. An example of this would be a Brickie’s assistant which would “hand”

the bricklayer a brick from an automatic hod and deliver a quantity of mortar in exactly the right mix and amount from a pumped tube. This type of site automation would increase productivity and consis-

tency. 9. Virtual Reality: Architecture has long been

concerned with getting across ideas about 3-D spatial arrangement using 2-D interfaces (even though it might be a walk through or perspective). Virtual reality allows you to enter an environment which you can change from within. By using gloves, body suits, special eye and ear apparatus, it would be possible to enter a building, designed on a normal CAD system, mix with other people, hear sounds changing, such as in a cathedral or cafe and actually change your environment from within. Indeed it is feasible, instead of designing in a traditional way, to enter a world with the surroundings already in it, with a space left for your building and you proceed to design from within this environment.

10 Physical Modelling: Using laser and thermo- plastic technologies from the manufacturing industry it is possible to extract data from CAD models to make physical prototypes. Being able to physically model something quickly, easily and cheaply (unlike traditional hand-crafted model making) would alter the debate as to whether physical or computer models were best to represent ideas. Further to building design, product design would also be enhanced.

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An information technology forecast for the architectural profession

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