An exploratory study Swedish Electromobility Centre Magnus ......Magnus Karlström | Swedish...

Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 1

Can fuel cells become a mass produced option globally for heavy duty trucks 2030+?

An exploratory study

Magnus Karlström, Elna Holmberg, Anders Grauers, Hans Pohl (RISE)

Swedish Electromobility Centre

Elna Holmberg | Swedish Electromobility Centre 2

…a national Centre of Excellence for research

and development of electric and hybrid vehicles and charging infrastructure. It is an arena where

Sweden’s automotive industry, universities and government agencies meet and collaborate to

generate

new technology, insights and competence for the future.

Swedish Electromobility Centre is…

System studies and methods Energy storageElectrical machines and drives Vehicle analysis Fuel cells


Part 2

A qualitative assessment of other factors

influencing the outcome

Part 1

Total Cost of Ownership study

Compare FCV, BEV, ICE, ERS (Electric Road Systems)

Year: 2030+

Main case Germany, long haul

But also Regional, City distributionAnd India, USA, China


Description of TCO study

Exploratory

Simplified (for example no lifetime issues with fuel cells, batteries and hydrogen storage)

Data based on publicly available literature

Discussed with stakeholders

Ownership cost of first owner of Heavy Duty Truck


Preliminary Result TCO Germany Long Haul (€)

7 years, Germany, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, 130 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh


Additional trucks for a specified transport task caused by lost load capacity to fuel/energy storage

Diesel

Hydrogen/battery

Long haul used factor: Hydrogen = 1,03 Battery (BEV) = 1,09


Preliminary German Niches for Long Haul (ERS not included)

Diagram on next slide

Long haul

Difference from excel model:

• No interest rate

• Not include ”less function”

• 200 €/kWh


Preliminary Result TCO Germany Regional (€)

7 years, Germany, Regional delivery, 300 km between refueling, 60 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh


Preliminary German Niches for Regional Delivery (ERS not included)

Diagram on next slideRegional delivery





Preliminary results TCO Germany City (€)

7 years, Germany, City Distribution, 200 km between refueling, 40 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh


Preliminary German Niches for City Distribution Germany (ERS not included)

Diagram on next slideCity distribution




• Battery 200 €/kWh


Preliminary Result TCO USA Long Haul (€)

7 years, USA, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, 160 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,11 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,12 €/kWh H2: 0,16 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh


Tesla Semi Case USA (150 000 USD + 7 Cent/kWH)

No change of ICE FC and ERS


Preliminary conclusion one: Factors with high total cost impact

Low total cost impact High total cost impact

High uncertainty Cost of fuel cell systemCost of hydrogen storageCost of electric machine

Cost of hydrogen, electricity, dieselResidual value of BEV, FCVLess transport efficiencyKm between refuellingBattery life lengthCost of Battery

Low uncertainty Not Listed Total mileageCost of HEV powertrainPowertrain efficienciesMaintenance costs


Preliminary conclusion two

€/km for different fuels much more importantthan powertrain costs, such as fuel cell cost


Preliminary conclusion three

TCO consequencesIf less tkm or m3km

becauseof extra weight/volume of battery/hydrogen storage


Preliminary conclusion four

City and regional better (TCO) for FCV than long haulcompared with ICE

However, ERS even better


WELCOME TO CONTACT US

Elna Holmberg, director

[email protected]

Offert

mailto:[email protected]


Why do we get these results for City distribution?

▪Even lower Efficiency of diesel engine lead to much higher fuel cost than for FCEV.

▪Even smaller battery make it possible to pay back the battery investment. (However, only close to end of life!)

City distribution


Economic risk ? – Example from regional delivery

▪ BEV cost is higher than FCEV all the first 500’000 km, only the last 100’000 km there is a small profit.

▪ Changed conditions the first 500’000 km risk to give a loss.

▪ The potential loss is bigger than the potential gain. ⇒ Not a reasonable risk?

▪ Can battery leasing be a solution?

Regional delivery

Maximum profitRisk for loss


ERS road cost per kWh

Typical for major Swedish roads

Truck traffic density for some big German Autobahn

Cost used in TCO analysis


Electric Road System

▪ Should be possible with catenary lines on only 33% of the road

▪ Gradients are positive – can reduce the percentage of catenary

▪ Catenary in uphill gradients give several advantages:

• Lower vehicle speed give more time to charge/km-catenary

• High energy consumption increase the power take from the catenary

• Higher portion of power goes directly to the wheel without passing the battery

▪ Reasonable with its own supply line parallel to the road

▪ Traffic density (both directions) is between 400-2000 Trucks per day on major Swedish roads. How many of these are likely to use an ERS?


ERS cost per km road – one lane

Typical for Swedish major roads

Räkna utnyttjandegrad för olika trafiktätheter

An exploratory study Swedish Electromobility Centre Magnus ......Magnus Karlström | Swedish...

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