An Economic Valuation of Large-scale rangeland restoration

through the HIMA system within the Zarqa river basin in Jordan.

Vanja Westerberg

Under the ELD initiative

Rationaleo Why do an economic valuation of the HIMA system?

o We know there is a case for change…

o But we need to ground that case on the basis of rigerous assessments.

o Translated into a terminology that everybody (or most people) can relate to.

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• We study the value of enhanced:

• Rangeland productivity

• Infiltration of rainfall to groundwater aquifers

• Stabilisation and trapping of sediments

• Carbon sequestration and storage

An economic valuation ecosystem goods and services associated with HIMA restoration

o Define the location

o Bani Hashem Hima

o Within the larger Zarqa river basin.

Step 1: Where?

o MOE MAP

WHERE: ZARQA RIVER BASIN

Step 2: Define the baseline scenario

What would happen over a 25 year time horizon if there is no changes in current rangeland practices?

Rangeland productivity rapidly declining – halving of edible dry matter per ha in 20 years (MoA 2009)

High livestock numbers compared to carrying capacity of land (as long as feed subsidy persist)

Step 3: Define the future scenario

o …Against which the economic valuation is undertaken

LARGE-SCALE HIMA RESTORATION

Step 3: Define the future scenario

o 109’093 ha suitable for HIMA restoration

o Out of a total 359’675.2 ha within the Zarqa river basin

In TOTAL

Value of enhanced rangeland productivity

o We use the experience from Bani Hashem

THE BENEFITS OF HIMA RESTORATION ??

RANGELAND PRODUCTIVITY

Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks

• We have a Hima management principle

• We know the plant biomass after 2.5 years of protection (excellent study by NCARE researcher for IUCN)

• We know the approximate starting value for plant biomass per ha.

• We know the maximum plant biomass per ha for the Baadia ecosystem ~ 500 kg/ha (100-200 mm of rain)

Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks

The Noy-Meir sigmoid curve has been shown to accurately reflect pasture growth in a managed grazing setting (Cacho 1993; Cooper and Huffaker 1997; Ritten 2013)

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Growth(biomasst ) = γ *biomasst (1−biomasst

biomass MAX)

Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks

We can predict biomass growth within a HIMA year-by-year.

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Biomass per ha in himat+1 = biomasst +Growth(biomasst ) −biomass grazedt

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BIOMASS ACCUMULATION AND WITHIN A HIMA SYSTEM

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BASELINE

BIOMASS GRAZED IN HIMA VERSUS PURE OPEN ACCESS

HIMA

Value of increased forage availability?

70-90% of all forage is purchased

Any additional natural rangeland forage will replace the need to purchase forage.

Predicted world market price for barley feed

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Hima restoration

Present Value per ha of HIMA restoration versus a continuation of the current land use/baseline scenario

JOD/ha

Value of enhanced rangeland productivity

o Value of additional forage from HIMA restoration (in terms of barley equivalent) over 25 years

16.8 million JOD

o 61 800 JOD per 400 ha HIMA

The Premium Value of Natural Forage

• Natural forage is praised for its properties:• Better quality of milk

• Better health of livestock

• We cannot purchase « natural grazing » on the market, nor « natural forage »

• We therefore need to construct a Hypothetical Market to elicit values for these ecosystem services

Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the valueof rangeland restoration

Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the valueof rangeland restoration

ALL FOOD FROM NATURAL PASTURES 105 JD/month

o Households are willing to pay a price premium of = 61.8 JD/ton on natural forage over ‘concentrated feed’.

o True economic value of natural forage over a 25 year time horizon

o 20.5 million JOD

Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the value of rangeland restoration

o The Zarqa river basin is considered as one of the major productive ground water basins in Jordan.

o Important to analyse the contribution of HIMA systems to ground water recharge.

o We use:

o Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT model)

Value of enhanced aquifer recharge ?

Value of enhanced aquifer recharge and water yield?

2013 2015 2020 2030

Hima restoration scenarion

Baseline/ Open access

Value of shallow aquifer recharge

96 000 m3 /year

o We look at existing prices in the market to approximate the value of water

o We look at what pastoralists are Willing To Pay for water for their flocks

Value of shallow aquifer recharge

~ 2 JD / m3

o Present value of water infiltration over a 25 year time horizon.

o 2.8 million JOD

o Lower bound estimate Increasing scarcity of water, the value goes up

Value of shallow ground-water infiltration

o Sediments reduce water storage capacity of dams

Value of sediment stabilisation

KING TALAL DAM

7.6 Million Cubic Meter (MCM) over 25 years of sediments are trapped and not deposited in King Talal Dam as a result of HIMA restoration

Reduced sedimentation from HIMA restoration

……Demand for water will not decline.

o Any lost water storage capacity will have to be replaced !

Value of sediment stabilisation

= 9.2 million JOD

Value of sediment stabilisation

Avoided Dam Construction Cost of replacing 7.6 MCM of water storage:

FOR Soil Organic Carbon we use estimates provided by the:

UNEP project Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system Al-Amadat et al., (2007)

Above ground carbon sequestration is calculated using IPCC tier 1 guidelines.

Value of Carbon Sequestration

Predicted carbon sequestration in HIMA versus open-access rangelands

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Value? Social cost of carbon

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The SCC is an estimate of the economic damages associated with a one ton increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Damages include, decreased agricultural productivity, damage from rising sea levels and harm to human health related to climate change

Avoided social cost of carbon of Large Scale Hima restoration

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PV of carbon sequestered =t=0

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∑ ΔCarbon Sequestration∗SCCt(1+ r)t

* Area

Present Value of Carbon sequestration from large-scale HIMA restoration over a 25 year time horizon

= 32.7 million JOD

Many benefits, but what about:

THE COSTS OF HIMA RESTORATION ??

Implementation costs: o Community workshops, participatory processes, biomass studies,

observation tower ~ 1 000 JD – 2 000 JD

Management costs: o Biomass and stocking density studies ~ 800 JD / year for 5-10 years

o Surveilliance by MoA ~ 5 000 JD / year

o OR: Surveilliance by community ~ 8 00 JD / year

Tentative implementation costs and surveilliance costs:

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OUTCOME?

BenefitsNatural forage / Rangeland productivity 20.5 million JD Groundwater percolation 2.8 million JD Sediment control 9.1 million JD Total Present Economic Value 32.1 million JD Costs

Surveillance and biomass studies by paid employees

27.0 million JD

Benefits - Costs

Total Net Present Value of HIMA restoration 5.1 million JD

NPV of Hima management system as today (in Bani Hashem) over 25 years for 100,000 ha of HIMA

BenefitsNatural forage / Rangeland productivity 20.5 million JD Groundwater percolation 2.8 million JD Sediment control 9.1 million JD Total Present Economic Value 32.1 million JD Costs

Implementation, community surveillance and biomass studies

7.3 million JD

Benefits - Costs

Total Net Present Value of HIMA restoration 24.7 million JD

NPV of Hima system through serious community management over 25 years for 100,000 ha of Hima

BenefitsNatural forage / Rangeland productivity 20.5 million JOD Groundwater percolation 2.8 million JOD Sediment control 9.1 million JOD Carbon sequestration 32.8 million JOD Total Present Economic Value 64.8 million JOD Costs

Community surveillance and biomass studies 7.3 million JOD

Benefits - Costs

Total Net Present Value of HIMA restoration 57.7 million JOD

NPV of Hima system through 100% community management and surveillance

LESSONS AND CONCLUSIONS

o Costs associated with HIMA implementation and management will be minimised if management/land rights are delegated to the community

o In line with the revised Jordanian rangeland strategy

Lessons

Livestock numbers within the Zarqa River Basin are currently too high for 100% Hima restoration

Raises a question about fodder subsidies…

Other lessons

o The HIMA system is extremely valuable: o To pastoral communities in terms of an increased

availability of natural forage

o Also to the Jordanian Society as a whole.

o Large-scale HIMA-restoration can provide

30-60 million JD worth of services over and above continuing the present land use system over a 25 year time horizon.

Conclusions

o HIMA communities are service providers !!

o Could we imagine schemes whereby ‘beneficiaries’ (e.g. dam owners) help finance HIMA providers?

o How to create the necessary incentives?

Lessons and perspectives

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION