An Earth system satellite mission? Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzi .
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Transcript of An Earth system satellite mission? Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzi .
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An Earth system satellite mission?
Paul Palmer, Claire Bulgin, and Siegfried Gonzihttp://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/eochem
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The Earth System
Mismatch between models and data
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Talk outline
SolutionsExample science challengesConcluding remarks
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Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
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The velocity of climate change
Loarie et al, Nature, 2009
Ratio of temporal and spatial gradients of mean annual near-surface T = instantaneous local velocity necessary to maintain constant T
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Some potential tipping points in the Earth system
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Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?-- ESA ECVs-- EUMETSAT and NOAA activities
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
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Develop a framework of rapid response instruments?
Comprehensively monitor key atmospheric trace gases and particles?
Adopt integrated approach for measuring the Earth?
3 possible solutions
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The NASA A-train is an example of the power of correlative measurements
But using correlative data properly is non-trivial…examples to follow
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1. Source attribution of AODs
2. Quantifying pyroconvection injection heights
2 examples
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Africa
We should think about systems as well as individual components
deposition
Primary and secondary aerosol sources: biomass
burning, biogenic, desert dust
Internally or externally mixed?
CCN
Fe fertilization
Ocean Ecosystem South America Africa
visibility
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GlobAerosol AOD retrievals from
SEVIRI (0.6, 0.8, & 1.7m)
Prior information about aerosol type is required to infer AOD from observed
radiances using ORAC MAP
(SEVIRI = Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager)
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maritime (0), urban (1), continental (2), biomass burning (3), and desert dust (4).
GlobAerosol AOD retrieval uses brute-force approach
Time of day
Day
s
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Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models
SEVIRI Dust IndexGEOS-Chem: Black carbon Sea salt
GlobalAerosol MAP scheme
Prior:Dust
Sea saltBiomass burning
Sulphate
Idea
l
AODs
GlobalAerosol MAP scheme:
DustSea salt
Biomass burningSulphate
Inte
rrim
AODdust
AODss
AODbb
AODso4
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Additional information is available from SEVIRI and models
Saharan Dust Index remove dust contamination in nighttime SSTretrievals.
PCA of brightness temperatures (3.9—8.7m, 2.9—12m, and 11—12m).
GEOS-Chem Chemistry Transport Model 3-D black carbon aerosol and sea salt distributions
BC evaluated via CO and TES
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Bulgin et al, 2010Cloudy scenes identified by EUMETSAT cloudmask
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Bulgin et al, 2010
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Bulgin et al, 2010
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Bulgin et al, 2010Large AOD differences has implications for
quantifying climate effects
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Bulgin et al, 2010Future challenge will be to incorporate coexisting
aerosol classes
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Estimates of global emissions from biomass burning
Biomass burning (Tg Element/yr)
All Sources (Tg Element/yr)
Biomass burning (%)
CO2 3500 8700 40
O3* 420 1100 38
CO 350 1100 32NMHC 24 100 24NOx 8.5 40 21
CH4 38 380 10
EC 19 22 86
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WHERE AND WHEN? Polar-orbiting satellites have sufficient coverage to infer information about variability on timescales from diurnal to year-to-year
5-years of Terra MODIS data (11/00 – 10/05)
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HOW BIG? Bottom-up emission estimates
M = A x B x a x b
Grams of dry matter burned per year
Total land area burned annually
The average organic matter per unit area
Fraction of above ground biomass relative average biomass B
Burning efficiency of the above ground biomass
Emission factors for flaming and smouldering fires
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Forward model H
Inverse model
Observations yEmissions x
BB
BF
Top-down methodology
)]([ aobs
ap H xyKxx
Posterior Prior Gain matrix Observations Forward model
ap PKHP )( 1
)( aobs H xy
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Top-down emission estimates based on inverse model calculations or process-based models
GFEDv2 CO Emissions for JJASO 2006 [g CO/m2]
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Injection height Smoke entrained in
mean flow
Injection height is a complex function of fuel loading, overlying meteorology, etc
Transport of emissions depends on the injection height
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NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer- MISR
In orbit aboard Terra since December 1999
Stereographic projection provides information about fire smoke aerosol height layer
9 view angles at Earth surface: nadir to 70.5º forward and backward (446, 558, 672, 866 nm)
275 m - 1.1 km sampling
Val Martin et al, 2010
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We use CO as a tracer for incomplete combustion
We use cloud-free data from two instruments aboard the NASA Aura spacecraft (left):
Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES)
Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)
Over burning scenes, together they are sensitive to changes in CO from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere
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i
i
im
y
e
m
e
y
We develop the traditional surface emission inverse problem
Both sides describe the sensitivity of the measured quantity y to changes in surface emissions e
We estimate emitted CO mass in five regions from 0 – 15 km.
During June-October 2006 we use 1785 TES profiles (672 colocated with MLS)
Omitting gory details, only 2-3% of retrievals failed.
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Define an injection height as the maximum height at which:
1)Posterior uncertainty is smaller than prior by 50%
2)Posterior mass is higher than the prior mass
33% pass this criterion; remaining 67% assume boundary layer injection
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•We estimate an injection height of greater than 10 km (recall we estimate mass over large vertical regions)
•Posterior CO mass increased by 50% due to biomass burning.
(Limited) evaluation of our product: Indonesia, October 2006
2 = cloud 3 = aerosol
Level of neutral buoyancy = 138 hPa
Nearby radiosonde
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Disproportionate impact of large fires: Cctrl-Cptb
Longitude [deg]
Boreal (42-67oN)Tropics (0-30oS)Pr
essu
re [h
Pa]
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Concluding remarksAtmosphere and land/ice/ocean missions are often on different platforms.
Planned ESA/NASA missions are driven by engineering rather than science
Now links realized between Earth components should we be designing Earth system missions?
Eg OCO-2: CO2 OCO-3: CO2/CH4/CO/leaf phenology?