AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK
12
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK Meeting the Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry Understanding Sector Roles Panalist: Justin Sharp Iberdrola Renewables, USA
description
Meeting the Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry Understanding Sector Roles. Panalist: Justin Sharp Iberdrola Renewables, USA. AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK. Where are the primary knowledge gaps? Who should contribute to filling the knowledge gaps?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of AMS Summer Community MeetingAugust 10-13, 2009Norman, OK
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
Meeting the Needs of the Renewable Energy Industry Understanding Sector Roles
Panalist: Justin Sharp
Iberdrola Renewables, USA
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
Where are the primary knowledge gaps?
Who should contribute to filling the knowledge gaps?
3
Short Range Forecasting Skill is Inadequate For Industry Needs
• Typical vendor verification• Evaluates by eye
– Tracks well
• Calculate MAE or RMSE.– MAE here is fairly low: 9.33%
• Look closely at the ramps
4
Plotting Hourly Error is Revealing
• Long periods with small errors• Record is punctuated by large
errors collocated with ramps• Let’s looker closer at one ramp
ElectionDay!!
Daily MAE = 13.6 %
Six
Ho
ur
MA
E =
26.
6%
Ma
x H
ourl
y E
rro
r>8
0%!
7
Other Knowledge/Technology Gaps
• Inadequate data– Core input for statistical, dynamical and human forecasting and analysis
• NWP– High resolution RR forecasts with near real-time data assimilation– MOS output tuned to wind energy including short range adjustment to observations– Better parameterizations (especially of stable boundary layer, LLJ and convection)– Output and MOS tuned to heights relevant to wind energy (30 to 150 m)– Meaningful statistics: forecast confidence and verification
• Long range wind outlooks similar to ones for precipitation and temperature• Climate change• Impact of atmospheric conditions on machine performance
All sectors have a role in all areas
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
What are the proper roles for government, industry and academia?
The wind industry needs better forecasts. We are agnostic about where they come from, but we don’t want to be denied access to
any source be it government or privateAccurate short range forecasting for wind energy is too big and too
important for the private sector to solve on its own.
9
Proper RolesThoughts for Discussion
• NOAA:– Data assimilation and modeling at highest resolution possible– Enable centralized data infrastructure. Protect data confidentiality
• Government Labs:– Maintain and improve mesoscale models/DA– Tech transfer to NOAA and private sector
• Academia:– Fundamental scientific research in all relevant areas.– Partner in science and technology transfer
• AWI:– Customized products focused on specific client needs– Convert weather data into weather information.
• Examples: power forecasts, decision support tools, trading tools– Value add evolves in time
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
What technology transfer practices should be explored?
11
Technology Transfer
• WRF for dummies!– Private sector can now perform NWP that was impossible for NCEP a few
years ago– WRF model developments are transferred to model user community via MMM– BUT WRF is becoming cluttered and more and more it requires users who
have time to be on top of every scheme and what works with what
• Use Government Labs to migrate the best research and development into the private sector via custom solutions?
– Customer pays for turnkey solution helping support further research– All research would be public domain but specific solutions would be IP– Is this acceptable? Open to debate.
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
How can all parties leverage their expertise to move the nation forward to improve the
adoption of renewables?
13
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats?
• Partnership between all players to promote understanding of challenges
– The wind industry has got ahead of itself. Fundamental science needs to catch up rapidly
– The DOE workshop in Broomfield, Colorado in Jan 2008 was a good start
– Outreach into the industry beyond the frontline meteorologists
• Vendors are struggling to move the science forward and it really isn’t their job
– They filled a gap and did initial tech transfer but this has slowed down
• Academic research: how do we close the needs gap?
• Work out the Government role that is acceptable to all stakeholders (industry, forecast
vendors and government) and define transparent Government goals.
Contact Information
Justin Sharp, PhDManager,
Wind Asset Management Meteorology 1125 NW Couch Street, Suite 700
Portland, OR 97209503-796-7063
AMS Summer Community Meeting August 10-13, 2009 Norman, OK
