American Political Science Review · Michael Jones-Correa University of Pennsylvania, USA Kimuli...

FEBRUARY 2021 | VOLUME 115 | NUMBER 1

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https://www.cambridge.org/corehttps://www.cambridge.org/core/termshttps://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420001100

LEAD EDITORSClarissa Hayward

Washington University in St. Louis, USA

Kelly M. KaderaUniversity of Iowa, USA

EDITORSSharon Wright Austin

University of Florida, USAMichelle L. Dion

McMaster University, CanadaCeleste Montoya

University of Colorado, Boulder, USAJulie Novkov

University at Albany, SUNY, USAValeria Sinclair-Chapman

Purdue University, USADara Strolovitch

Princeton University, USAAlli Mari Tripp

University of Wisconsin, Madison, USADenise M. Walsh

University of Virginia, USAS. Laurel Weldon

Simon Fraser University, CanadaElisabeth Jean Wood

Yale University, USA

MANAGING EDITORDragana Svraka

ADVISORY BOARD FOR ETHICAL RESEARCHCatherine Boone

London School of Economics and Political Science, UK

Scott DesposatoUC San Diego, USA

Macartan HumphriesWZB Berlin and Columbia University, USA

Lauren M. MacLeanIndiana University, USA

Layna MosleyPrinceton University, USA

Trisha PhillipsWest Virginia University, USA

Peregrine Schwartz-SheaUniversity of Utah, USA

EDITORIAL BOARDClaire Adida

UC San Diego, USAPhillip Ayoub

Occidental College, USALisa Baldez

Dartmouth College, USALawrie Balfour

University of Virginia, USAKaren Beckwith

Case Western Reserve University, USACatherine Boone

London School of Economics and Political Science, UK

Janet Box-SteffensmeierOhio State University, USA

Pamela BrandweinUniversity of Michigan, USA

David BroockmanUC Berkeley, USA

Nadia E. BrownPurdue University, USA

Renee BuhrUniversity of St. Thomas, USA

Pradeep ChhibberUC Berkeley, USA

Cathy CohenUniversity of Chicago, USA

Katherine CramerUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison, USA

Paisley CurrahCUNY, USA

Christian DavenportUniversity of Michigan, USA

Alexandre DebsYale University, USA

Jacqueline H. R. DeMerittUniversity of North Texas, USA

Scott DesposatoUC San Diego, USA

Shirin DeylamiWestern Washington University, USA

James N. DruckmanNorthwestern University, USA

Thad DunningUC Berkeley, USA

Elisabeth EllisUniversity of Otago, New Zealand

Tanisha FazalUniversity of Minnesota, USA

Evgeny FinkelJohns Hopkins University, USA

Jason FrankCornell University, USA

Jill FrankCornell University, USA

Robert J. FranzeseUniversity of Michigan, USA

Lorrie FrasureUCLA, USA

Elisabeth Jay FriedmanUniversity of San Francisco, USA

Lisa Garcia-BedollaUC Berkeley, USA

Daniel GillionUniversity of Pennsylvania, USA

Farah GodrejUC Riverside, USA

Stephan HaggardUC San Diego, USA

Kerry HaynieDuke University, USA

Errol HendersonPennsylvania State University, USA

Yoshiko HerreraUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison, USA

Juliet HookerBrown University, USA

Macartan HumphreysWZB Berlin, Germany, and Columbia University, USA

Vince HutchingsUniversity of Michigan, USA

Turkuler IsikelColumbia University, USA

Alan JacobsUniversity of British Columbia, Canada

Amaney JamalPrinceton University, USA

Juliet JohnsonMcGill University, Canada

Michael Jones-CorreaUniversity of Pennsylvania, USA

Kimuli KasaraColumbia University, USA

Helen M. KinsellaUniversity of Minnesota, USA

Brett Ashley LeedsRice University, USA

Ines LevinUC Irvine, USA

Jacob T. LevyMcGill University, Canada

Pei-te LienUC Santa Barbara, USA

Sheryl LightfootUniversity of British Columbia, Canada

Jinee LokaneetaDrew University, USA

Catherine LuMcGill University, Canada

Juan Pablo LunaPontificia Universidad Catolica, Chile

Ellen LustUniversity of Gothenburg, Sweden

Marc LynchGeroge Washington University, USA

Lauren M. MacLeanUniversity of Indiana, USA

Samantha MajicCUNY - John Jay College, USA

Melanie ManionDuke University, USA

Isabela MaresYale University, USA

Valerie Martinez-EbersUniversity of North Texas, USA

Seth MasketUniversity of Denver, USA

Peace A. MedieUniversity of Bristol, UK

Jamila MichenerCornell University, USA

Michael MintaUniversity of Minnesota, USA

Sara McLaughlin MitchellUniversity of Iowa, USA

Burt MonroePennsylvania State University, USA

Layna MosleyPrinceton University, USA

Tamir MoustafaSimon Fraser University, Canada

Byron D’Andra OreyJackson State University, USA

Elizabeth Maggie PennEmory University, USA

Ravi PerryHoward University, USA

Justin PhillipsColumbia University, USA

Trisha PhillipsWest Virginia University, USA

Mark PickupSimon Fraser University, Canada

Melanye PricePrairie View A&M University, USA

Karthick RamakrishnanUC Riverside, USA

Gina Yannitell ReinhardtUniversity of Essex, UK

Andrew ReynoldsUniversity of North Carolina, USA

Emily Hencken RitterVanderbilt University, USA

Molly RobertsUC San Diego, USA

Melvin RogersBrown University, USA

Nita RudraGeorgetown University, USA

Burcu SavunUniversity of Pittsburgh, USA

Ken ScheveStanford University, USA

Melissa SchwartzbergNew York University, USA

Peregrine Schwartz-SheaUniversity of Utah, USA

Maya SenHarvard University, USA

Elizabeth SharrowUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, USA

Kathryn SikkinkHarvard University, USA

Laura SjobergUniversity of Florida, USA/Royal Holloway, UK

Anand SokheyUniversity of Colorado, Boulder, USA

Sarah SongUC Berkeley, USA

Dietland StolleMcGill University, Canada

Kathleen ThelenMassachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Cameron ThiesArizona State University, USA

Jakana ThomasMichigan State University, USA

Erica Townsend-BellOklahoma State University, USA

Ethel TungchanYork University, Canada

Antonio Y. Vázquez-ArroyoRutgers University, USA

Lisa WedeenUniversity of Chicago, USA

Jessica WeeksUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison, USA

Ismail K. WhitePrinceton University, USA

Jennifer WolakUniversity of Colorado, Boulder, USA

Janelle WongUniversity of Maryland, USA

Deborah J. YasharPrinceton University, USA

Association Office Address and Membership Information: American Political Science Association individual membership dues are: Regular members with income of $200,000+, $325; $135,000–$199,999, $276; $100,000–$134,999, $246; $80,000–$99,999, $212; $60,000–$79,999, $191; $50,000–$59,999, $175; $40,000–$49,999, $145; $30,000–$39,999, $98; under $30,000, $78; life member, $4,000; associate member (can select only one journal for print or online), $75; family member, $34; K–12 educator, $50; student member, $52; unemployed member, $45; retired, $25,000+, $66; retired under $25,000, $40; targeted international member, $45. The amount of the dues allocated for a subscription is $8.00 for an individual membership. Institutional members: level one, $900; level two, $1,250; level three, $1,750. Changes of address for members should be completed online or mailed to APSA Member Services, 1527 New Hampshire Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1206.Subscription, Publishing, and Advertising Office Address: Cambridge University Press, One Liberty Plaza, New York, NY 10006; and (outside the United States, Canada, and Mexico) Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfi llment Department, University Printing House, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS, England.Subscription Information: American Political Science Review (ISSN 0003-0554) is published quarterly in February, May, August, and November by Cambridge University Press (One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006) for the American Political Science Association. Periodicals postage rate paid at New York, NY, and at additional mailing offices. Annual institutional electronic-only subscription rate (2021) is US $1642 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £943 elsewhere. Annual institutional print-and-electronic subscription rate (2021) is US $1903 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £1080 elsewhere. American Political Science Review is sold only as part of a joint subscription with the Perspective on Politics and PS: Political Science & Politics. Single part rate (2021) is US $201 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; £114 elsewhere. POSTMASTER: Send address changes in the USA, Canada, and Mexico to: American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfillment Department, One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006. Send address changes else-where to American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, Journals Fulfillment Department, One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006.© American Political Science Astsociation 2021.All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, or otherwise, without permission in writing from Cambridge University Press. Policies, request forms, and contacts are available at http://www.cambridge.org/rights/permissions/permission.htmPermission to copy (for users in the U.S.A.) is available from Copyright Clearance Center, http://www.copyright.com, email: [email protected]

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American Political Science ReviewVolume 115, Number 1, February 2021

Table of Contents

NOTES FROM THE EDITORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

ARTICLESMinimal Secularism: Lessons for, and from, India

Cécile Laborde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Fundraising for Stigmatized Groups: A Text Message Donation Experiment

Katerina Linos, Laura Jakli, and Melissa Carlson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14The Wane of Command: Evidence on Drone Strikes and Control within Terrorist Organizations

Anouk S . Rigterink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31UN Peacekeeping and the Rule of Law

Robert A . Blair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51David Hume’s Balancing Act: The Political Discourses and the Sinews of War

Danielle Charette . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Emigrant Inclusion in Home Country Elections: Theory and Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Elizabeth Iams Wellman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Electoral Accountability and Particularistic Legislation: Evidence from an Electoral Reform in Mexico

Lucia Motolinia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97Local News, Information, and the Nationalization of U .S . Elections

Daniel J . Moskowitz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114Political Advertising Online and Offline

Erika Franklin Fowler, Michael M . Franz, Gregory J . Martin, Zachary Peskowitz, and Travis N . Ridout . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Hot Politics? Affective Responses to Political RhetoricBert N . Bakker, Gijs Schumacher, and Matthijs Rooduijn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

Idiosyncratic Information and Vague CommunicationTakakazu Honryo and Makoto Yano . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

The Non-Democratic Roots of Mass Education: Evidence from 200 YearsAgustina S . Paglayan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Overcoming History Through Exit or Integration: Deep-Rooted Sources of Support for the European Union

Kai Gehring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199Explanations of Institutional Change: Reflecting on a “Missing Diagonal”

Johannes Gerschewski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218Seniority-Based Nominations and Political Careers

Alexandra Cirone, Gary W . Cox, and Jon H . Fiva . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234Attributing Policy Influence under Coalition Governance

David Fortunato, Nick C . N . Lin, Randolph T . Stevenson, and Mathias Wessel Tromborg . . . . . . . . 252Citizens as Complicits: Distrust in Politicians and Biased Social Dissemination of Political Information

Troels Bøggild, Lene Aarøe and Michael Bang Petersen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269Radicalism in Mass Movements: Asymmetric Information and Endogenous Leadership

Heng Chen and Wing Suen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

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LETTERSWomen’s Descriptive Representation and Gendered Import Tax Discrimination

Timm Betz, David Fortunato, and Diana Z . O’Brien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307Fake It ‘Til You Make It: A Natural Experiment to Identify European Politicians’ Benefit from Twitter Bots

Bruno Castanho Silva and Sven-Oliver Proksch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316Democracy and Depression: A Cross-National Study of Depressive Symptoms and Nonparticipation

Claudia Landwehr and Christopher Ojeda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323Reconciling the Theoretical and Empirical Study of International Norms: A New Approach to Measurement

Tyler Girard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331Measuring the Significance of Policy Outputs with Positive Unlabeled Learning

Radoslaw Zubek, Abhishek Dasgupta, and David Doyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339

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Frank J. GoodnowAlbert ShawFrederick N. JudsonJames BryceA. Lawrence LowellWoodrowWilsonSimeon E. BaldwinAlbert Bushnell HartW. W. WilloughbyJohn Bassett MooreErnst FreundJesse MacyMunroe SmithHenry Jones FordPaul S. ReinschLeo S. RoweWilliam A. DunningHarry A. GarfieldJames W. GarnerCharles E. MerriamCharles A. BeardWilliam Bennett MunroJesse S. ReevesJohn A. FairlieBenjamin F. ShambaughEdward S. CorwinWilliam F. WilloughbyIsidor LoebWalter ShepardFrancis W. CokerArthur N. HolcombeThomas Reed PowellClarence A. DykstraCharles Grove HainesRobert C. BrooksFrederic A. OggWilliam AndersonRobert E. CushmanLeonard D. WhiteJohn GausWalter F. DoddArthur W. MacMahonHenry R. SpencerQuincy WrightJames K. PollockPeter H. OdegardLuther GulickPendleton HerringRalph J. BuncheCharles McKinleyHarold D. LasswellE. E. SchattschneiderV. O. Key, Jr.R. Taylor ColeCarl B. SwisherEmmette S. RedfordCharles S. Hyneman

Carl J. FriedrichC. Herman PritchettDavid B. TrumanGabriel A. AlmondRobert A. DahlMerle FainsodDavid EastonKarl W. DeutschRobert E. LaneHeinz EulauRobert E. WardAvery LeisersonAustin RanneyJames MacGregor BurnsSamuel H. BeerJohn C. WahlkeLeon D. EpsteinWarren E. MillerCharles E. LindblomSeymour Martin LipsetWilliam H. RikerPhilip E. ConverseRichard F. FennoAaron B. WildavskySamuel P. HuntingtonKenneth N. WaltzLucian W. PyeJudith N. ShklarTheodore J. LowiJames Q. WilsonLucius J. BarkerCharles O.JonesSidney VerbaArend LijphartElinor OstromM. Kent JenningsMatthew Holden, Jr.Robert O. KeohaneRobert JervisRobert D. PutnamTheda SkocpolSusanne Hoeber RudolphMargaret LeviIra KatznelsonRobert AxelrodDianne M. PinderhughesPeter KatzensteinHenry E. BradyCarole PatemanG. Bingham Powell, Jr.Jane MansbridgeJohn H. AldrichRodney E. HeroJennifer HochschildDavid LakeKathleen ThelenRogers Smith

FORMERAPSA PRESIDENTS

OFFICERS

PRESIDENTJanet M. Box-SteffensmeierOhio State University

VICE-PRESIDENTSMichelle DeardorffUniversity of Tennessee,Chattanooga

Mala HtunUniversity of NewMexico

John SidesVanderbilt University

PRESIDENT-ELECTJohn IshiyamaUniversity of NorthTexas

PAST PRESIDENTPaula D. McClainDuke University

2018–2021Adam J. BerinskyMassachusetts Instituteof Technology

Ann O’M. BowmanTexas A&M University

Julia S. Jordan-ZacheryUniversity of NorthCarolina, Charlotte

Lori J. MarsoUnion College

Alberto SimpserInstituto TecnológicoAutónomo de México

Charles SmithUniversity of California,Irvine

Rocío TitiunikPrinceton University

Lisa WedeenUniversity of Chicago

2019–2022Ben AnsellUniversity of Oxford

Erik BleichMiddlebury College

Alexandra FilindraUniversity of Illinois atChicago

Rebecca GillUniversity of Nevada, LasVegas

Soo Yeon KimNational University ofSingapore

David LealUniversity of Texas,Austin

Suzanna LinnPenn State University

Melanye PricePrairie View A&MUniversity

TREASURERDavid LublinAmerican University

EXECUTIVE DIRECTORSteven Rathgeb Smith

COUNCIL

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