AMerfeld-Magellan Project
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Primary Determinants of Body Weight Change in a Population of Young Adults
Amber R. Merfeld, Exercise ScienceGregory A. Hand, PhD MPH, Dept. of Exercise
Science
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Clinical Exercise Research Center Staff
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Obesity• The prevalence of obesity has
increased over the last 4 decades. • Based on general thermodynamic laws, it is commonly
believed that the general cause is that people are in a chronic state of positive energy balance.
• No large, clinical studies have measured the three components of energy balance (intake, expenditure, and stores).
• This paucity of information is severely hindering the development of impactful policies to address the obesity epidemic.
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Negative Impact of Obesity• The obesity epidemic in adults and children is
the primary health risk for Americans.• Obesity-related conditions result in over
400,000 deaths per year in the US with an economic impact of almost $123 billion per
year. • However, the determinants
of obesity and weight gain are not well understood.
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Energy Balance• The basic components
of energy balance include energy intake, energy expenditure and energy storage.
• The body is in energy balance when energy intake equals energy expenditure, and body energy, which is generally equivalent to body weight, is stable.– Thus, energy consumed must equal energy expended
for a person to remain at the same body weight.
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Energy Balance Maintenance• Important of maintaining energy balance:
– A state of positive energy balance occurs when energy intake exceeds energy expenditure and the consequence is an increase in body mass, of which 60% to 80% is usually body fat (Hill, 2012).
– Conversely, a state of negative energy balance occurs when energy expenditureexceeds energy intake andthe consequence is a decrease in body mass, again with 60%–80% frombody fat. (Hill, 2012).
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Research Question and Purpose of the Study
• What are the primary determinants of body weight change over a 12-month period?
• The purpose of the Energy Balance Study is to provide very precise measurements that will facilitate informed policy development to address the obesity epidemic.
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Project Design
• The Energy Balance Study is a large-scale, comprehensive observational study that is designed to measure the components of energy balance more accurately than have been measured previously.
• The study will follow 400 healthy adults, between the ages of 21 and 35, for 12 months with measurements taken quarterly, with the option of continuing for another 12 months.
• Analyses will be made based on body weight change retrospectively from baseline to 1 year self-reported weight.
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Energy Balance Recruitment Report
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Methods (Prior to Baseline)• All interested and eligible participants will be
scheduled to take part in a 3-week run-in period. – During week 1, participants will be asked to complete the
informed consent form, some questionnaires, have their height and weight assessed, and complete the DXA measure.
– During week 2, participants will be asked to complete the resting metabolic rate assessment (RMR), some questionnaires, and have their blood drawn.
– During week 3, another DXA measure will be conducted and a maximal fitness test will be administered. For a two-week period, participants will have activity and energy intake measured
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Lab Measurements
•Height/Weight•Resting BP•Waist/Hip Circumference•Body Composition (DXA)•Cardiorespiratory Fitness•Blood Chemistry•Resting Metabolic Rate•DLW
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Timing of Lab Measurements
Measurement Baseline
Month 3
Month 6
Month 9
Month 12
Month 15
Month 18
Month 21
Month 24
Height/Weight X X X X X X X X X
Resting BP X X X X X X
Waist/Hip Circumference X X X X X X
Body Composition X X X X X X X X X
Cardiorespiratory Fitness X X
Blood Chemistry X X X X X
Resting Metabolic Rate X X X X X
DLW X
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Energy Storage Measures
• At baseline and every follow-up visit, a body composition scan, also known as a DXA scan, will be performed to measure total percent body fat.
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Energy Expenditure Measures• Participants will wear the SenseWear Armband for 10
consecutive days at baseline and at every follow-up visit.• To prevent the armband from becoming an ‘intervention,’
feedback from the armband will not be available to participants (screened/blinded).
Men Women0
500100015002000250030003500
587 471
1052811
620608
759440
100
57 VigorousModerateLightSedentarySleep
Kcal
s
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Energy Intake Measures• During the 10 consecutive days while the participant is
wearing the SenseWear Armband, they will also complete 3 random 24-hour dietary recalls. • Administered by a trained dietitian over the telephone
using the Nutrition Data System for Research software• Portion estimation training using 2D models
administered during the afternoon follow-up visits.
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Results• We created linear regression graphs to show
the correlation of each of the three independent factors (energy storage, energy intake and energy expenditure) on the dependent factor, weight change.
• In addition, we also created a multiple linear regression equation to determine which independent factor had the most influence on weight change.
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Energy Storage vs. Weight Change
Energy Storage
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Wt. C
hange
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30
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Total Fat vs Weight Change Plot 1 Regr
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Energy Intake vs. Weight Change
Energy Intake
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Wt. C
hange
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0
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Energy Intake vs Weight Change Plot 1 Regr
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Energy Expenditure vs. Weight Change2D Graph 19
Energy Expenditure
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Wt C
hange
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Energy Expenditure vs Weight Change Plot 1 Regr
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Multiple Linear Regression Equation• Weight Change = 3.225 - (0.000206 * Total Fat) - (0.000456 * Energy
Intake) + (0.000664 * Energy Expenditure)
• N = 402 Missing Observations = 28
• R = 0.361 Rsqr = 0.13
• Standard Error of Estimate = 5.243
• Coefficient Std. Error t P VIF• Constant 3.225 1.654 1.950 0.052• Total Fat -0.000206 0.0000274-7.518 <0.001 1.066• Energy Intake -0.000456 0.000470 -0.970 0.333 1.338• Energy Expenditure 0.000664 0.000582 1.141 0.254 1.272• The dependent variable Weight Change can be predicted from a linear combination of the independent
variables:• P • Total Fat <0.001• Energy Intake 0.333• Energy Expenditure 0.254
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Conclusions
• Energy storage is the number one influential factor of energy balance, while energy intake and energy expenditure were less significant.
• Sources of error: self report could have caused incorrect measures– Energy intake– Previous 1 year weight measurement
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Future Directions• Finishing total study
– Rely on actual measurements instead of self-reported measurements
• Emphasis on the energy storage dependant variable– Biochemical markers and how they influence peoples’
habits– How the amount of fat affects a person’s appetite
• It is anticipated that our findings will be published in a major clinical research journal such as the New England Journal of Medicine or The Lancet.
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Questions?