Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme...Activity Centres Strategy (MRACS) and Clause 21.05 of the...

Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme Expert witness statement of Chris Abery, Deep End Services

Prepared for Ranfurlie Developments Pty Ltd 20 March 2017

Deep End Services Deep End Services is an economic research and property consulting firm based in Melbourne. It provides a range of services to local and international retailers, property owners and developers including due diligence and market scoping studies, store benchmarking and network planning, site analysis and sales forecasting, market assessments for a variety of land uses, and highest and best use studies.

Contact Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra VIC 3141

T +61 3 8825 5888 F +61 3 9826 5331 deependservices.com.au

Enquiries about this report should be directed to:

Chris Abery Principal [email protected]

Document Name Am C171 Chris Abery witness statement (FINAL)- 17 March 2017 20.03.17

Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report.

This report contains forecasts of future events that are based on numerous sources of information as referenced in the text and supporting material. It is not always possible to verify that this information is accurate or complete. It should be noted that information inputs and the factors influencing the findings in this report may change hence Deep End Services Pty Ltd cannot accept responsibility for reliance upon such findings beyond six months from the date of this report. Beyond that date, a review of the findings contained in this report may be necessary.

This report should be read in its entirety, as reference to part only may be misleading.

mailto:[email protected]

Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme—20 March 2017 Deep End Services

Introduction 1 1.1 Name & address of expert 1 1.2 Experts qualifications & experience 1 1.3 Expert’s area of expertise 2 1.4 Expertise to make report 2 1.5 Documents, materials, and literature used in preparing this report 2 2 Melton Retail and Activity Centres Strategy 3 2.1 Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme 3 2.2 Economic and Policy context 4 2.3 MRACS Methodology 5

Population and spending 5 Floorspace demand 5 Scope for New Centres 6 Catchment analysis 7

2.4 Activity Centre expectations 8 2.5 Caroline Springs findings 9 2.6 Burnside findings 9 3 Burnside Activity Centre 12 3.1 Location 12

Regional setting 12 Regional population growth 13 Regional roads connections & traffic volumes 16 Surrounding employment growth 18

3.2 Burnside activity centre 19 3.3 Burnside Hub 21 3.4 Extended centre 21 3.5 Extended MRACS Catchment area 22 3.6 The case for a DDS at Burnside 24 3.7 Burnside meeting the expectations for Activity Centres 26 4 Activity centres hierarchy 28 4.1 Melton East Structure Plan Activity Centre Framework (1997) 28 4.2 Activity Centre Network 30 4.3 Comparable spaced centres 32 4.4 Impacts 33 4.5 Benefits 35 5 Conclusions 36

Appendices

Appendix A Curriculum Vitae – Chris Abery

Contents


Table 1—Population growth 15 Table 2—Burnside Hub existing floorspace 21 Table 3— Core catchment area populations 22 Table 4—Activity Centre floorspace 32 Figure 1—Sub regional catchments from MRACS 8 Figure 2—MRACS Final Proposed Activity Centre Network 11 Figure 3—Regional location 13 Figure 4—Population areas 15 Figure 5—Regional road connections 16 Figure 6—Traffic volumes 2015 (vehicles per day) 18 Figure 7— Commercial and Industrial land available - 2016 19 Figure 8—Burnside Activity Centre – February 2017 20 Figure 9—Adjusted MRACS catchments 23 Figure 10—DDS provision outer west 26 Figure 11—Melton East Strategy Plan (1997) Activity Centre Framework 29 Figure 12—Activity Centre Network 31 Figure 13—Relative locations of Activity Centres and other DDS-based

centres 33

Tables + Figures

1


01 My name is Chris Abery. I am a Principal of Deep End Services, a consulting firm which practices in retail analysis and property economics. My statement has been prepared to assist the review by Planning Panels Victoria of Amendment C171 (the Amendment) to the Melton Planning Scheme.

02 My instructions from Minter Ellison on behalf of Ranfurlie Developments Pty Ltd (owners of Burnside Hub Shopping Centre and surrounding land) are to review the Amendment and provide expert retail and economic evidence in relation to Burnside’s proposed designation as an Activity Centre under the Melton Retail and Activity Centres Strategy (MRACS) and Clause 21.05 of the Melton Planning Scheme.

03 In preparing this report I have inspected the site, surrounding areas and shopping centres. I have reviewed the Melton Planning Scheme and the Melton Retail and Activity Centres Strategy.

04 In arriving at my conclusions, I have made all the inquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance that I regard as relevant have, to my knowledge, been withheld from the Panel.

05 Mr Chris Abery Principal Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 / 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra Victoria 3141

06 Bachelor of Town and Regional Planning, University of Melbourne

07 Graduate Diploma Social Statistics, Swinburne Institute

08 I have 32 years’ experience in spatial modelling, retail and market analysis and property economic evaluation.

09 I have been a Principal of Deep End Services, a property and retail economics consultancy since June 2009, where I have worked with national retail clients, shopping centre owners and developers on need and demand assessments, network planning and economic impact evaluations.

10 I was a Director in the Property Economics unit of Urbis between March 2007 and April 2009.

11 I have held senior roles in the Property Team at Coles Myer Ltd between 1992 and 2007 including as National Manager Strategy and Property Analysis. In that role, I lead a team responsible for the network planning of Coles Myer retail businesses across Australia, forecasting turnover of all new store proposals, due diligence of property and business acquisitions, urban planning advice and general market advice to senior management and the Coles property team.

12 Between 1986 and 1992 I was employed as a consultant with Ratio Consultants, an economics and urban planning consultancy.

13 A full CV is included at Appendix 1.

Introduction

1.1 Name & address of expert

1.2 Experts qualifications & experience

2


14 Development and execution of turnover forecasting models for new retail stores including supermarkets, discount department stores, department stores, liquor stores and fast food outlets for retailers and shopping centre owners.

15 Market assessments and turnover forecasts for new or expanding retail centres.

16 Preparation of demand and supply studies on supportable levels of retail and commercial floorspace in growth areas and established markets.

17 Analysis of consumer data and research relating to retailing and shopping centre developments.

18 Spatial analysis of customer data to model retail catchments and market shares for the purpose of sales forecasting.

19 Market research and commercial advice in relation to the recommended land use, layout, size, facility mix, turnover and rents of mixed use developments.

20 Preparation of economic impact assessments for proposed retail developments and expert witness evidence.

21 Detailed knowledge of Australian retail and shopping centre operations and impacts resulting from development of new supermarkets and other retail facilities.

22 Long term involvement with retailers and owners and developers of shopping centres.

23 Preparation of evidence for and appearances at Planning Panels, Appeal Tribunals, Licensing Boards and courts in Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales.

24 Amendment C71 Melton Planning Scheme

25 City of Melton Retail & Activity Centres Strategy

26 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census and other published data

1.3 Expert’s area of expertise

1.4 Expertise to make report

1.5 Documents, materials, and literature used in preparing this report

3


27 This section reviews the economic and policy context for the MRACS and the assumptions and analysis which lead to the findings in relation to the Burnside Activity Centre.

28 Amendment C171 implements the recommendation of the City of Melton Retail and Activity Centres Strategy, March 2014 by amending the Municipal Strategic Statement and Local Planning Policy.

29 The Amendment inserts a new Clause 21.05 (Activity Centres and Retail Provision) and updates the existing Clause 22.06 (Retail Policy). Clause 21.05 introduces a new hierarchy of activity centres in the municipality with new Objectives and Strategies.

30 Clause 21.05-4 (Activity Centre Network) contains Map 1: City of Melton Activity Centre Hierarchy: Supportable Network of activity centres at full development which identifies Burnside as one of four existing ‘Activity Centres’ along with four new Activity Centres. Under this clause, Burnside its upgraded from its current designation as a neighbourhood centre.

31 Clause 21.05-4 also contains Table 1 (City of Melton Activity Centre Hierarchy) which sets out the ‘Land Use Strategies’ for each level in the hierarchy. Activity Centres sit below Metropolitan Activity Centres and are to be encouraged to develop the following land uses:

• A broad mix of integrated sub regional land uses such as retail (discount department store as well as supermarkets and specialty stores), office, business, community, education and residential.

• Residential development (usually above ground level) and medium and higher density housing in close proximity.

Melton Retail and Activity Centres Strategy

2.1 Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme

4


• Accessibility via public transport including a public transport interchange and pedestrian and cycling networks.

• Extensive public open space. • Approximately 35,000 square metres of conventional retail floorspace

and up to 20,000 square metres of restricted retail floor space based on a catchment of approximately 50,000 people.

32 The need for a new Activity Centres Strategy stems from a range of economic and policy themes set out in the MRACS including:

• The City of Melton’s population is projected to grow from 132,000 people in 2015 to 400,000 at full development over the next 30-40 years. This unprecedented rate of growth requires both the redevelopment and expansion of existing centres and a network of new centres to service the growth areas.

• Surveys by Council showing residents want a higher level of service from their activity centres, reducing the need to travel elsewhere.

• Generating new job opportunities. Melton’s activity centres are vitally important to generate a high proportion (up to 60%) of the 140,000 new jobs needed when the municipality reaches full development.

• A need to merge the activity centre planning undertaken by the former Growth Areas Authority in Melton’s new areas (where the focus was on centre hierarchies based on retail functions) with the latest metropolitan plan (‘Plan Melbourne’) where the hierarchy of centres has been broadened with a focus on jobs and services.

• The new hierarchy of centres under ‘Plan Melbourne’ is: • National Employment Clusters • Metropolitan Activity Centres • Activity Centres • Neighbourhood Centres

• The introduction of reformed commercial zones in Victoria in 2012. These were designed to respond to changing market forces and provide greater flexibility and growth opportunities by (amongst other things) broadening the range of activities not requiring a permit, removing floorspace restrictions and allowing limited retail uses in industrial zones. With the removal of floorspace caps, the MRACS notes that “... the area of land to be zoned will be the principle control on the size of the centre” 1.

• ‘Plan Melbourne’ setting higher minimum densities within growth areas of 18 dwellings per hectare. This could have implications for the size and number of activity centres to serve the growth areas.

33 The strategic planning studies for Melton East pre-date most of the area’s development. There has been no review of activity centres since the Melton East Structure Plan (MESP) was released in 1997. A review of the Indicative Activity Centre Framework Plan within the MESP reveals several proposed centres failed to materialise as the locations were poorly placed and the low floorspace caps only

1 MRACS Background Report p.40.

2.2 Economic and Policy context

5


allowed small supermarkets which could no longer be secured by developers. While Caroline Springs is now at the size contemplated by the MESP Activity Centres Framework, the balance of the area has a much lower floorspace provision than proposed in the MESP.

34 The MRACS analysis is undertaken through various stages including:

• An analysis of existing centres including trade areas, floorspace, retail sales and the results of a web-based survey of residents’ views about their centres.

• Trends in activity centre planning and the retail and office sectors. • Policy developments. • Projected population at the municipal and small-area level and retail spending

levels at the municipal level. • Supportable retail floorspace at the municipal level at full development. • Organising floorspace needs into centres. • Resolving network issues.

35 The major assumptions and conclusions are reviewed below.

Population and spending

36 The MRACS takes population forecasts for the City of Melton from small area projections prepared by .id consulting. By 2031, the municipal projections by .id (242,000) are about higher 7% than the State Government’s forecasts (226,000)2. The difference can be explained by different assumptions and normal variability in forecasting over long time periods however both estimates represents an increase of either 95,000 people or 109,000 people over the 2015 levels (133,000) – a range which still shows significant growth and potential demand for new activity centre floorspace.

37 In examining the detailed .id estimates, I note the East Melton area covering Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill, Burnside Heights and Burnside will increase from 48,713 people in 2016 and peak at 52,200 people in 2021. Across this sub-region, the largest area of growth in the next 10 years is projected by .id at Burnside, based on the large infill estate (Modeina) now developing off Westwood Drive, beginning 1.6 km north of the Burnside centre.

Floorspace demand

38 Tables 8 and 9 of the MRACS Background Report calculate the projected retail floorspace needs of the Melton City Council area at full development. The assumptions are that:

• Supportable retail floorspace per capita in Melton will increase from 2.0 sqm per person in 2012 to 2.37 sqm at full development or sometime around the year 2050.

• The total supportable retail floorspace by Melton residents is 946,800 sqm at full development. Assuming 82% of this could, or should, be provided in Melton

2 MRACS Background Report p.31.

2.3 MRACS Methodology

6


(allowing 18% escape spending) then the total to be accommodated is 774,100 sqm.

• This is an increase of +628,400 sqm of retail floorspace over and above Melton’s existing supply of 145,700 sqm.

39 In my view, the assumptions are plausible and set a reasonable expectation on what the city should be seeking to accommodate. These are significant requirements resulting in approximately 15,000-18,000 sqm of new retail floorspace in the city each year, for the next 35 years.

40 Even under the lower forecasts by the State Government which would see Melton’s average annual growth rising to 10,000 people per annum, a net increase of 15,000-18,000 sqm (or at least 1.5 sqm per capita) would be a minimum average annual retail floorspace requirement for the region.

41 It is often the case in outer growth areas where new housing areas are occurring on different growth fronts – as it is in Melton – that new retail supply often lags demand. With a dispersed growth pattern, established centres with further capacity to expand often take up the demands where they can efficiently service the new areas, until such a time as the new areas have critical population thresholds to support new centres.

Scope for New Centres

42 Table 10 of the MRACS (Background Report) seeks to allocate the 774,100 sqm of additional retail floorspace to regional, sub-regional, neighbourhood and other centres in the hierarchy. It allocates a proportion of floorspace to each level in the hierarchy and calculates the number of centres needed based on an average floorspace per centre.

43 At the sub-regional level (which generally correlates with ‘Activity Centres’ under the ‘Plan Melbourne’ centres hierarchy), the table makes the following assumptions:

• 43% of the 774,100 sqm is allocated to sub-regional centres or 332,900 sqm. • With a sub-regional centre having a typical retail floorspace of 55,000 sqm,

Melton at full development can support a total of 6 sub-regional centres. • With three existing sub-regional centres this creates the notional scope for 3

additional sub-regional centres.

44 A similar analysis is undertaken for regional centres (2 new) and neighbourhood centres (25 new).

45 While I understand the calculation on new sub-regional centre requirements is a hypothetical estimate, the assumption of an average of 55,000 sqm per sub-regional centre (comprising 35,000 sqm of conventional retail space and 20,000 sqm of restricted retail premises) could be an over estimate as some locations will not deliver either or both these floorspace assumptions. In these instances, the floorspace could be allocated to other locations that can deliver the floorspace from stronger locations or a smaller average size should be assumed in the analysis which, in turn, would substantiate more sub-regional centres. For example:

7


• There are approximately 300 sub-regional or discount department store (DDS)-based centres in Australia and approximately 85% of these are single-DDS centres with an average retail floorspace of approximately 20,000 sqm. Centres of this size will be more commonly found in new growth areas as the DDS market has weakened and the industry is shifting away from the larger but smaller number of, double-DDS centres which average about 47,000 sqm of retail space.

• The assumption of 35,000 sqm of retail floorspace is higher than the average for all sub-regional centres in Australia (28,000 sqm) but, more importantly, is not a realistic planning tool for individual locations as DDS or sub-regional centres tend to group around the 15,000-22,000 sqm range (for single-DDS centres) or are 40,000+ for most double-DDS centres. An average of 35,000 sqm implies a small double DDS-based centre however these are becoming increasingly difficult to develop in new locations given the state of the DDS market. The market is, in fact, now moving towards a higher number of smaller single DDS centres.

• The Caroline Springs Town Centre (currently 22,000 sqm retail space) is typical of a single DDS-based centre but may not generate strong enough commercial interest from major retailers to achieve 35,000 sqm of shopping centre space and almost certainly will not develop 20,000 sqm of restricted retail premises.

• Other ‘Activity Centre’ locations in the growth areas may also find that without a second DDS or strong main road exposure to attract national large-format retailers, that the 55,000 sqm floorspace allocations will not be achieved.

46 While Table 10 may be a useful tool to generate a high-level estimate of activity centre needs, there should still be some flexibility to allow centres to move within the hierarchy and to grow as the market considers the relative strengths and weaknesses of emerging or established locations and the changing viability of multiple major stores in one location.

Catchment analysis

47 The MRACS determines sub-regional or ‘Activity Centre’ locations by aggregating small areas (at full development) to catchments of about 50,000 people and confirming either an existing centre or assigning a new ‘Activity Centre’ to the area. The MRACS Final Report (p.12) notes that while 50,000 people was adopted for planning purposes this could vary between 35,000 and 70,000 people.

48 The map in Figure 1 is taken from the MRACS showing six residential catchments for sub-regional centres. In Melton East, a single catchment area extending from Taylors Hill to Burnside is shown with the Caroline Springs Town Centre as the only sub-regional centre.

49 Five other catchments across Melton are shown for sub-regional centres (bringing the total to 6) which corresponds with Table 10 which calculated a similar long-term need in Melton.

8


50 The expectations for ‘Activity Centres’ are set out in Sections 6.2 and 6.4 of the Final Report. It notes that each Activity Centre will be different in its offering and emphasis however each will generally contain:

• A sub-regional retail function with multiple supermarkets, a DDS and specialty shops

• Community services • Entertainment and recreation activities • Commercial accommodation • Office activities • Extensive public open space • Public transport interchange

51 I note that the criteria include a DDS in each centre. There is no requirement or expectation that any centre should have multiple DDS. Clearly, this is a matter for the market to determine.

Figure 1—Sub regional catchments from MRACS

Source: MRACS p.13

2.4 Activity Centre expectations

9


52 In the case of Caroline Springs, the MRACS Background Report and Final Report make the following points:

• Caroline Springs is presently the nominated Activity Centre for East Melton and has developed to provide a small sub-regional offering and a substantial non-retail service.

• The Town Centre has about 22,000 sqm of retail floorspace and over 50,000 sqm of other commercial and community uses.

• Its share of retail spending (23%) is towards the lower end of the typical share for sub-regional centres.

• Caroline Springs is central to its catchment which the Final report indicates will be 50,000 people at full development (MRACS p.15) although I note the Background Report (Appendix 6) indicates it will reach 63,000 people by 2031.

• Assuming future development at Burnside and Plumpton, the natural catchment area is likely to contract to about 30,00-40,000 people.

• These developments are likely to limit the retail potential of the centre to the provision which currently exists.

• Office development is likely to be one of the key areas for expansion at Caroline Springs Town Centre.

53 In relation to Burnside and its elevation from a Neighbourhood Centre to an Activity Centre, the MRACS says the following:

• The centre has 4.5 hectares of vacant land zoned Commercial 1 and 7 hectares zoned Mixed Use adjoining the existing centre. (I note this reference is incorrect since the recent rezoning of the two land parcels – swapping the Mixed Use and Commercial 1 zones – now results in 7.8 hectares of vacant Commercial 1 zoned land adjoining the centre and 4.1 hectares of Mixed Use zoned land).

• While presently designated a neighbourhood centre it has surrounding uses that provide sub-regional services including (then) two hardware stores and a growing large format retail precinct.

• The area of vacant Commercial 1 zoned land is large enough to accommodate a DDS, supermarket and specialty shops.

• The new Commercial zones have done away with floorspace caps and the owners do not need a permit for retail or office uses.

• Given the above, it is prudent to nominate Burnside as an Activity Centre and for Council to influence the design to produce the best outcome for residents and centre users.

54 Further strategic support in the MRACS is given to Burnside’s Activity Centre status by the following comments:

• At full development, Burnside and Caroline Springs would share a catchment of 60,000-70,000 people which would be sufficient to support small sub-regional facilities at each centre (that is, a single DDS, two full line supermarkets and specialty stores) (MRACS p.16).

• A sub-regional retail facility at Burnside would also attract shoppers from the nearer parts of Brimbank. It could also serve some people in the newly

2.5 Caroline Springs findings

2.6 Burnside findings

10


developing growth areas east of the Outer Metropolitan Ring Road, at least until the Activity Centre at Plumpton was developed (Background Report p.57).

• Burnside could also host a more extensive bulky goods offering because of its location on the Western Highway and accommodate specialist services for the adjoining industrial areas (MRACS p.16).

55 The proposed Activity Centre Network is shown in Figure 2.

11


56 Section 3 of my report expands on some of the strategic location and catchment area arguments put forward in the MRACS relating to Burnside’s new Activity Centre status.

Figure 2—MRACS Final Proposed Activity Centre Network

Source: MRACS

12


Regional setting

57 Burnside has unique location advantages that favourably position it for new retail and other investment in the next ten years. Some are discussed in more detail in the following sections but broadly, its regional setting is characterised by:

• Access to a large, established population base through the Melton East corridor and the outer suburbs of Brimbank.

• Western Highway access to the West Growth Corridor Precinct Structure Plan (PSP) areas which are in final stages of planning or formative stages of development in the case of Rockbank and Rockbank North. The four PSPs west of Caroline Springs and adjacent to the highway, have a long-term capacity of 87,500 people – a population much larger than the East Melton corridor today.

• An emerging large format retail, showroom and commercial area along Ballarat Road which has seen significant growth in the last five years.

• Proximity to the vast West Industrial Node which already extends north along Robinsons Road to Burnside with a growing employment base in the industrial and business parks through Ravenhall.

• Exposure to a major highway with 44,000 vehicles per day, close connections to the Western Ring Road and Western By-pass and the future development of Westwood Drive creating a second arterial past the site.

• Its position as the closest activity centre to the new Caroline Springs railway station.

• Limited growth and development of other major activity centres which are constrained by location, site features or demographic changes.

Burnside Activity Centre

3.1 Location

13


Figure 3—Regional location

Regional population growth

58 The City of Melton (2015 population 132,752) is the fourth fastest growing outer municipality of Melbourne. Melton’s average annual population growth of 5,200 people in the last five years ranks it below Wyndham (10,920 per annum), Whittlesea (8,537) and Casey (7,550).

59 Population projections by the State Government (Victoria in Future 2016) however indicate that Melton will gradually increase its annual growth rate to almost 8,000 new residents per annum by 2021 and to 10,000 per annum by 2031. In 2031, Melton’s population would reach 266,000 – approximately double the 2015 population level.

60 According to the State Government’s forecasts, Melton will surpass Whittlesea’s average annual population increase in 2021 and exceed Casey and Wyndham’s annual growth after 2026.

14


61 Burnside is well-positioned to the existing population and future growth. The original Melton East Strategy Plan area, (refer Figure 3) broadly defined as the corridor between Burnside and Caroline Springs in the south up to Hillside in the north, has developed since the mid 1990’s. Originally planned for between 60,000 and 82,000 people, the area had an estimated 2016 population of almost 70,000 people and should peak at just over 75,000 people.

62 The narrow Taylors Hill West PSP area which was annexed to East Melton and commenced in 2012 is about 80% developed towards its expected capacity of 2,400 lots or 7,000 – 7,500 people.

63 Within the broad East Melton corridor, the MRACS defined a smaller sub-regional centre catchment area (refer Figure 4) from Taylors Hill down to Burnside where the population has grown from 22,528 to 48,379 in the last 10 years (refer Table 1). The main area of infill housing is the Modeina estate at Burnside off Westwood Drive where approximately 200 homes have been built or are under construction of the 850 lot capacity.

64 The Modeina Estate, other infill housing and higher density development around Caroline Springs Town Centre is likely to increase the population of the East Melton sub-regional catchment to 52,700 in 2021 and about 56,260 at full capacity (refer Table 1).

65 South east of Burnside, the new suburb of Derrimut and areas of Deer Park south of Ballarat Rd – both in the City of Brimbank - have more than doubled in the last 10 years to about 22,000 people in 2016 (refer Table 1). Derrimut is now almost fully developed although its population will continue to grow as young families increase in size.

66 The vast West Growth Corridor Plan area has two approved PSPs and two in progress close to Melton East. There are four PSPs (Mt Atkinson, Kororoit, Rockbank North and Rockbank) abutting the Western Highway, generally within 5-10 km of Burnside with a capacity of 87,500 people. Mirvac is developing its largest housing estate in Australia at Rockbank North where several hundred homes are either built or under construction. The Mirvac estate has a capacity of 7,000 lots (or 20,000 people) which is most of the North Rockbank PSP capacity.

67 In the Rockbank PSP south of Western Highway, major estates known as Thornhill Park and Bridgefield are now selling lots with the first houses yet to be built.

68 As the Melton East area approaches full development, the West Corridor PSPs will escalate their land release and population growth. It will be at least five years before the first supermarket is developed in these areas and many more before major discount department stores or similar retailers can be supported. Until then, centres such as Burnside which is a short drive along the highway can serve a valuable role in providing higher level retailing to the new areas.

69 The current and future population levels of the three established urban areas defined around Burnside and the nearest PSPs to the west are shown in Table 1.

15


Figure 4—Population areas

Population2006 2011 2016 2021 Capacity

Established areasMelton East* 22,528 40,651 48,379 52,696 56,260Derrimut-Deer Park 9,232 18,187 22,037 24,537 25,000Brimbank Central 23,883 27,391 29,472 31,222 31,500Total Established areas 55,643 86,229 99,888 108,455 112,760

PSP areasRockbank - 1,081 1,032 2,370 22,200Rockbank North - 36 239 5,725 20,400Mt Atkinson - - - - 19,000Kororoit - part - 100 100 342 22,430Taylors Hill West - part - 0 4,850 5,880 5,880Total PSP areas 0 1,217 6,221 14,317 89,910

Total 55,643 87,446 106,109 122,772 202,670

* MR&ACS-defined area which includes part Taylors Hill West and part Kororoit

Source: ABS, PSPs, id., UDP

Table 1—Population growth

16


Regional roads connections & traffic volumes

70 Burnside has excellent access and exposure to an evolving road and rail network in the outer west.

71 The vacant Commercial 1 zoned land has a 400 metre frontage to Ballarat Road and 200 metres to Westwood Drive. The centre is close to the Western Freeway (1.5 km) and Western Ring Road (3.8 km) interchanges. These are important linkages which bring significant volumes of through and passing traffic to the area and are important factors for retailers considering the potential of the site.

Figure 5—Regional road connections

72 The high visibility and main road attributes are like some of the early and most successful discount department store-based centres in Melbourne and Geelong - such as the Coles and Kmart centres at East Burwood, Campbellfield and Belmont. These have proven to be resilient centres over almost 50 years despite substantial changes in competition, technology and population shifts.

17


73 Data from Vic Roads (refer Figure 6) shows average 24-hour two-way traffic volumes on Ballarat Road (Western Highway) passing the Burnside site was 44,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in 2015.

74 These volumes contrast with about 30,000 vpd on Station Road passing Brimbank Central and a similar volume (30,000 vpd) on Melton Highway near Watergardens Town Centre.

75 Westwood Drive is planned as a future north-south arterial road through Melton East, ultimately extending between the Calder Highway in the north and Princes Freeway at Williams Landing in the south (refer Figure 5). When complete, it will form a continuous 18 km 4-lane arterial and act as an alternative north-south link to the narrow and congested Caroline Springs Boulevard where it passes through the Caroline Springs Town Centre. To facilitate the extension, Westwood Drive will bridge Kororoit Creek, 2 km north of Burnside.

76 Through GTA, I understand that VicRoads have modelled the future daily traffic flows along Western Highway and Westwood Drive at 50,00 vpd each (100,000 vpd in total).

77 The high exposure to passing and through-traffic is a key driver in the demand analysis and commercial interest for an expanded Burnside Centre.

78 Burnside’s location at the intersection of two major arterial roads is a unique characteristic shared by only one other centre in the western suburbs, namely Watergardens.

79 The future extension of Rockbank Middle Rd into the West Corridor Growth area enhances Burnside’s east-west connections into new areas.

80 The Regional Rail Link passes 1.3 km south of Burnside with its nearest station at Deer Park. The new Caroline Springs Station on the Melton line is just 2.3 km by road from Burnside and 4.1 km from the Caroline Springs Town Centre. Burnside is the closest activity centre to this station.

81 Burnside will be well served by local and regional bus routes with connections to Caroline Springs and Deer Park stations.

18


Surrounding employment growth

82 The area south of Ballarat Road, extending west to the current urban boundary of Caroline Springs and south between the Western Freeway and Robinson Road, is known as the Ravenhall Employment Precinct (REP) (refer Figure 7).

83 The existing 328 hectares of Commercial 2 and Industrial 3 zoned land through the REP forms the northern end of the much larger West Industrial Node. The area south of Burnside is characterised by retail and commercial display uses, small office-warehouse and industrial premises and Business Parks with conventional office buildings. Figure 7 shows land within the REP either developed or vacant, according to the State Government’s Broadhectare Data Base in 2016.

84 In 2016, approximately 106 hectares in the REP was developed and 222 hectares (or 67%) was vacant and available for development. Since 2010, the developed land area has increased from 61 to 106 hectares suggesting the take-up of land and employment growth has been very strong.

85 The current employment base is difficult to estimate however at the last Census (2011) there were 1,347 people working in the REP. Based on the growth in the area and more intensive retail and office developments at Orbis Business Park and along

Figure 6—Traffic volumes 2015 (vehicles per day)

Source: Vic Roads

19


the highway, I estimate the current employment levels in the REP to be at least 2,300 people.

86 With approximately one-third of the zoned area developed, the employment level at full capacity in 10-15 years (at current rates of land take-up) would be close to 7,300 people. The yellow shaded areas in Figure 7 are future industrial areas of some 100 hectares that will also increase the area’s employment base.

87 For Burnside, the growing number of businesses in the REP, particularly the associated office components, will have demands for office and business supplies and retail and professional services which could be provided in an expanded Burnside Activity Centre. The large and growing workforce is within walking distance or a short drive of Burnside where a range of dine-in and take-away food, groceries and personal services can be made available in an expanded centre.

88 The Burnside Activity Centre is broadly defined by the MRACS3 to include:

• The Burnside Hub neighbourhood shopping centre on Westwood Drive. • McDonalds and KFC on Ballarat Road and a commercial development to the rear

off Westwood Drive. • 7.8 hectares of vacant Commercial 1 zoned land south and west of Burnside Hub

through to Ballarat Road and 4.1 hectares of vacant Mixed Use zoned land north of Burnside Hub.

• Large-format retail developments west of the vacant land including Bunnings, the former Masters store and a new showroom and office development west of Masters known as West Springs Centre.

3 MRACS Background & Analysis Discussion report, Appendix p.20

Figure 7— Commercial and Industrial land available - 2016

Source: DELW&P

3.2 Burnside activity centre

20


89 These uses and areas are shown in Figure 8. I would argue that the land use and employment functions of an ‘Activity Centre’, as they are defined under the centres hierarchy in Plan Melbourne, are also evident in other adjoining areas of Burnside including:

• Medium density housing to the north comprising the Burnside Retirement Village and Westwood Aged Care Service.

• Commercial uses on the south side of Ballarat Road, generally east of Bunnings through to Westwood Drive. This area is part of the REP and has a mix of retail, large format retail, trade supplies, fuel and light industrial uses.

• A large format retail development on Ballarat Road, west of Bunnings. Built in 2013, the 14,387 sqm complex with 8 occupied tenancies includes national retailers Officeworks, Petbarn, Autobarn, Furniture Galore and Fantastic Furniture. Two leisure tenancies include a children’s play centre and café and trampoline park.

• Further west of the large format retail strip extending to Christies Road is a cluster of new automotive dealerships including Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Honda and Mazda.

Figure 8—Burnside Activity Centre – February 2017

Source: Nearmap, MRACS, Deep End Services

21


90 The Ballarat Road retail and commercial strip through Burnside (on the north side) and Ravenhall (south side) has developed rapidly since 2011. In particular:

• Bunnings and Masters hardware stores were developed in 2012. The now vacant Masters store is likely to revert to a range of large format retail tenancies further consolidating the area as a growing destination for national retailers.

• The large format retail centre and car dealerships on the south side and the West Springs Centre on the north side have all developed from 2013 through to mid-2015.

91 Burnside Hub Shopping Centre was developed in 2003 as the first supermarket-based centre in the Melton East corridor. Other than some tenancy changes (Bi-Lo rebadging to Coles) and a recent minor extension to ALDI, the centre itself has remained largely unchanged since opening.

92 The centre has a mid-sized Coles supermarket (2,522 sqm), free-standing ALDI store (1,506 sqm), 17 shops and a medical centre. The total gross leasable area is approximately 6,284 sqm (refer Table 2).

93 The centre is oriented towards Westwood Drive which currently functions as a collector road for the Burnside housing estates. Westwood Drive terminates at the future bridge crossing on Kororoit Creek, 2.2 km north of Burnside. The centre has low visibility and exposure to Ballarat Road and while the specialty shop component has been fully let and stable over many years, the centre has been constrained by its current layout and small Coles supermarket.

94 The opportunity at Burnside, created by the favourable site attributes, regional growth characteristics and the available Commercial 1 zoned land, is to develop a large single DDS-based centre, consistent with the MRACS with the following features:

• A centre with high convenience which is attractive to the existing catchment and new housing areas in the West Growth Corridor.

• To re-orientate the centre away from its current perspective to Westwood Drive towards the Western Highway with strong links to the large format retail areas west of the vacant land.

• To secure a major DDS tenant such as Kmart whose nearest stores are at Keilor Downs, Melton and Footscray.

• To increase the size and number of supermarkets.

No. of tenants Floorspace (sqm)

Coles 1 2,522

ALDI 1 1,506

Specialty shops 16 1,935

Total retail 18 5,963

Medical 2 318

ATMs/Kiosks 3 3

Total centre 23 6,284

3.3 Burnside Hub

Table 2—Burnside Hub existing floorspace

3.4 Extended centre

22


• To create a strong north-south link through to the Mixed Use zoned land and retirement village to the north.

• To attract a range of non-retail, commercial and leisure / entertainment tenants and uses which complement the retail function and increase the mixed-use elements of the centre.

• Provide a relevant centre for the businesses and large and growing employment base through Ravenhall.

95 Figure 9 shows the Caroline Springs (East Melton) sub regional catchment reproduced from the MRACS, limited, as it was, to the residential areas within the City of Melton. This area is outlined in red. I also show two shaded areas being a reduced core Caroline Springs catchment (red) and Burnside’s core local catchment (shaded blue) which occupies part of the Melton East area and penetrates other adjacent areas labelled Derrimut – Deer Park in Brimbank (outlined in blue). The connections to the employment land and PSP areas are also shown.

96 These areas are not the entire catchments of each centre as major road connections will extend Burnside’s catchment into other areas of East Melton (north of Kororoit Creek) and further east into Brimbank (Cairnlea).

97 Table 3 shows the relative current and future population of both shaded areas around each centre. Caroline Springs has a slightly larger population of 37,890 in 2016 compared to 32,530 people around Burnside.

98 By 2021, Burnside’s population is projected to reach 37,240 which meets the 35,000 threshold for a sub-regional centre set out in the MRACS.

99 Both centres will experience growth in their catchments – Caroline Springs from parts of Taylors Hill West, the eastern part of the Kororoit Creek PSP and higher density housing around the Town Centre. Burnside will grow with the Dennis Family housing estate at Modeina (Burnside) and new and larger families growing into the new areas of Derrimut.

100 Figure 9 also shows an almost straight road distance of 7.5 km from Burnside to a point on the Western Highway where the new estates are being sold either side at Rockbank and Rockbank North. The same relative distances from this point are 9.4km to Caroline Springs Town Centre (including via the slower Caroline Springs Boulevard route) or 9.6 km back to Woodgrove Shopping Centre at Melton.

Adjusted catchments 2016 2021 Capacity

Caroline Springs 37,890 39,990 43,460

Burnside 32,530 37,240 37,800

Total 70,420 77,230 81,260

3.5 Extended MRACS Catchment area

Table 3— Core catchment area populations

23


Figure 9—Adjusted MRACS catchments

24


101 A DDS such as Kmart, Target or Big W is the major retail tenancy commitment that will facilitate Burnside’s elevation to a sub-regional shopping centre.

102 Over the last five years there has been a considerable shift in the DDS market which has had general implications for shopping centre sites looking to secure DDS commitments. The market participants are shaping the Brimbank and East Melton activity centres in the following ways:

• Kmart, who has been the leading DDS operator for the last 7 years with remodelled stores, reduced merchandise lines, a new pricing model and better marketing, closed an underperforming store at Brimbank Central in 2012. Brimbank was a case of an established centre whose catchment, while relatively large, was insufficient to support both the Wesfarmers’ owned Kmart and Target brands.

• Target and Big W now have significantly reduced new store programs considering their lower trading levels.

• Caroline Springs Square added Target to its centre in a Stage2 expansion in 2009 raising the centre to about 22,000 sqm (retail GLA). I understand Lend Lease has plans to increase the centre to 36,000 sqm with a second DDS. In the almost five years which have elapsed since the previous Amendment C112 Panel Report into Burnside’s then proposed expansion, it has become evident to me that Target is an underperforming store at Caroline Springs and Kmart and Big W have little or no interest in pursuing a new store at the centre.

103 While the DDS operators have formed their own view about Caroline Springs, in my opinion it has some inherent location and design weaknesses that constrain it from achieving its desired status as a double DDS-based centre in the short-medium term. These include:

• Its central location to Caroline Springs is desirable for a neighbourhood or large community-sized centre however it does not command a large enough regional catchment to support multiple large retail stores.

• The internal location 3km inboard of Ballarat Road is too far to draw people into the site off the external main road network.

• Caroline Springs Boulevard is designed and functions as a 4-lane collector road, not a major arterial carrying through traffic which many of the large sub-regional centres require to access wider catchments.

• The Boulevard’s low traffic function and the lack of a strong east-west connector road reinforce its localised catchment.

• The schools and community facilities are desirable close to the centre but create traffic congestion in peak periods limiting the Boulevard’s carrying capacity.

104 Figure 10 shows a large functional region around Caroline Springs and Brimbank Central with over 100,000 people and just 2 DDS - both Target. Outside this area, the nearest DDS are a third Target store and Big W at Watergardens Town Centre and Big W at Sunshine.

3.6 The case for a DDS at Burnside

25


105 Kmart has just one store in the outer west at Keilor Downs. Its next nearest stores are well beyond the Burnside – Caroline Springs catchment at Melton, North Altona and Footscray.

106 DDS rates of provision (population per store) vary widely across Melbourne. While metropolitan-wide rates pf provision are in the order of one store per 45,000-50,000 people, rates in outer areas are much higher (that is, lower populations per store) where there are more opportunities for large-format stores and where household characteristics and spending patterns are more inclined to DDS shopping. Figure 10 shows notional DDS catchments around groups of centres in the outer west.

107 Although boundaries between or around groups of centres are subject to interpretation, it is evident to me that:

• The discrete outer areas of Melton and Point Cook have one DDS per 30,000 people on current population levels. Point Cook has all three DDS brands in close proximity.

• The balance of Wyndham has three DDS and one under construction (Kmart) which is one per 38,500 people. A potential DDS commitment at Wyndham Vale could drop the rate of provision to one per 34,000 by 2018.

• Sydenham – Keilor has three DDS (all brands) with one per 32,830 people. • An area covering Caroline Springs Square, Brimbank Central and Burnside with

107,000 people has just two Target stores – or one DDS per 53,500 people. • Even if the Sydenham - East Keilor and Caroline Springs – Brimbank catchments

were combined, the effective rate of provision is still lower than the other areas at one per 41,100 people.

• In the Sydenham-Keilor-Brimbank-Melton East area, not only is the rate of provision low but three of the five DDS are Target stores which is arguably the worst performing DDS brand in the market.

• Importantly, across all the centres in the outer west, the only locations with 2 or more DDS are the strong-performing centrally located activity centres on major arterials roads including Watergardens, Pacific Werribee and Woodgrove.

108 Caroline Springs Square which has sought to attract a second DDS would be one of only four centres in the outer west with 2 DDS. Its embedded location and local road connections make it a poor comparison against the much stronger and larger double DDS centres in the region that it seeks to emulate.

26


Figure 10—DDS provision outer west

Source: Deep End Services

109 On the available information and my inspection of the area, Burnside can meet the role and expectations of an Activity Centre, as set out in the MRACS (p.12). It can provide a broad range of jobs and services to a substantial catchment comprising a suburb or several suburbs and can generate a large number of trips for retail, entertainment, community and business purposes.

110 As the NRACS indicates, not all Activity Centres are alike. Some, like Caroline Springs, have an embedded residential setting and a high quality, master-planned built environment with well-arranged retail, community, office and other uses. Other planned Activity Centres at Plumpton, Rockbank and North Rockbank will probably develop in a similar way.

3.7 Burnside meeting the expectations for Activity Centres

27


111 Burnside on the other hand, is emerging from a disparate group of uses including a small neighbourhood centre, a retirement village, restricted retail premises and other commercial and light industrial uses along a major arterial road. These uses can now be integrated and linked via the large areas of Commercial 1 and Mixed Use zoned land. Burnside will have a harder physical appearance but will nonetheless be a strong contributor to jobs and services on the Melton – Brimbank boundary. This role could be similar to the future Hopkins Road Activity Centre at Mt Atkinson which has a smaller planned population base relative to other centres but is intended to service a significant industrial and commercial area.

112 On the specific expectations of Activity Centres, Burnside has or should contain:

• A sub-regional retail function including a DDS, multiple supermarkets and an important cluster of restricted retail premises.

• A range of community services such as allied health and medical services. • Entertainment and recreation activities including cafes and restaurants. The

surrounding commercial and industrial areas already have a range of leisure-based businesses including a swimming school, indoor play centres and trampoline park.

• Commercial offices in and around the retail centre and along Ballarat Road. • Linkages to the Kororoit Creek walking trail and linear open space system. • Bus services to the surrounding area and the nearest stations at Deer Park and

Caroline Springs.

113 On the important employment criteria, Burnside is now at the centre of a growing commercial and industrial area through Ravenhall with about 2,300 jobs. This area is just one-third developed with a strong take-up of industrial and business land. These areas will have growing need for office support and business services, food and restaurants, medical services and other retail businesses that can be frequented by employees to or from work.

114 The core catchment population of Burnside will be at least 35,000 people meeting the minimum threshold set out in the MRACS. The catchment will be effectively much larger based on the surrounding workforce, the Ballarat Road and future Westwood Drive arterial road intersection and the potential to reach the growing areas on the West Growth Corridor.

115 Burnside’s retail floorspace could well start as a large single-DDS sub regional centre of up to 25,000 sqm growing with subsequent stages to the 35,000 sqm indicative floor area.

116 Outside the Commercial 1 zoned land, the Ballarat Road strip will become increasingly popular for restricted retail uses as the Masters store converts to smaller premises and other national retailers become aware of the area’s favourable access and regional catchment.

28


117 Until the release of the MRACS, activity centre planning has progressed based on the 1997 Melton East Structure Plan (MESP) – now 20 years old.

118 The plan recommended an activity centre network with 63,000 sqm of retail floorspace for the (then estimated) 62,000 people - a very low provision of less than 1 sqm per capita which retained just 52% of floorspace demands in the area. This is a very low rate as current-day expectations of floorspace provision have changed.

119 The low floorspace provision is now incompatible with Council’s community feedback on the need for a wider range of services at centres and Council’s expectations that activity centres make higher contributions to employment generation.

120 Other factors which render the activity centre recommendations of the MESP redundant are that:

• Actual population levels in the MESP area are likely to be at the top end of the 60,000 - 80,000 population range which was estimated for planning purposes.

• The West Corridor Growth Plan and the PSP areas now planned and developing west of Burnside and Caroline Springs, were not contemplated in 1997.

• Two of the five ‘neighbourhood centres’ have not developed due to proximity to larger centres while a third was relocated and reduced in size.

• Two of the three ‘Community Centres’ (Burnside & Taylors Hill) have been developed while the Banchory Grove site, acquired by QIC (owners of Watergardens), has been held for over 15 years undeveloped.

121 The Indicative Activity Centre Framework from the 1997 MESP is shown in Figure 11 with commentary on the various locations.

Activity centres hierarchy

4.1 Melton East Structure Plan Activity Centre Framework (1997)

29


Figure 11—Melton East Strategy Plan (1997) Activity Centre Framework

Source: MESP, Deep End Services

30


122 The existing and now proposed activity centre network for the region covering part of the West Growth Corridor, East Melton and adjoining areas of Brimbank is shown in Figure 12. The hierarchy of Activity Centres and Neighbourhood Centres broadly follows the centres and criteria set out in Plan Melbourne and the MRACS.

123 There has been little or no change to most of the surrounding activity centres in the last five years despite the region’s strong population growth. At the major Activity Centres and Neighbourhood Centres, I note the following:

• Watergardens opened in 1997 and was extended to 61,600 sqm in 2007. It is a strong-performing centre ranked highly in sales per sqm amongst peer group centres. A proposed 35,000 sqm expansion was shelved in 2011 due to Myer’s withdrawal from the project. A smaller expansion could still proceed.

• The Stage 2 expansion of Caroline Springs Square opened in 2009 adding Target, ALDI and First Choice. Amendment C91 increased the permitted ‘shop’ floorspace from 22,000 sqm to 40,000 sqm allowing a potential 3rd supermarket and 2nd DDS. I understand there has been limited interest from major retailers in the proposed expansion largely due to location issues and performance levels of Target.

• Brimbank Central is one of Melbourne’s first sub-regional shopping centres which opened in 1979. The centre has been repositioned after Kmart’s exit in 2012 with the space filled by a relocated and extended Coles supermarket.

• The Deer Park ‘Activity Centre’ on Ballarat Road has approximately 50 retail and commercial tenancies and a retail GLA of less than 5,000 sqm. Its status as an Activity Centre under Plan Melbourne is something of an anomaly given its size and limited expansion potential. The Deer Park railway station 800 metres south of the centre would seem to be the main factor in its status. A former Supa IGA supermarket is now trading as a non-branded independent grocery store.

• Neighbourhood Centres at Taylors Hill, Watervale and Derrimut Village all developed between 2010 and 2012. Derrimut Village has some minor expansion capacity on adjoining C1 zoned land.

124 The elevation of Burnside fills a gap and opportunity for a higher order centre anchoring the southern end of the Melton East corridor at the intersection of two important arterial roads.

125 The density of neighbourhood centres in the northern part of Melton East is not duplicated (or possible) in the southern section. An expanded Burnside will subsume some of the unmet neighbourhood centre demands in the south.

126 Burnside and Caroline Springs are differentiated centres that can co-exist 4.2 km apart. Caroline Springs has the advantage of a master-planned town centre where retail, community, leisure, education, office, hotel and residential uses are well laid out for the local catchment, although the centre has inherent location issues.

127 Burnside, on the other hand, is an evolving area with a growing commercial and industrial employment base, restricted retail and showroom uses and a stronger main road presence with regional connections. It has major tenant interest and a greater opportunity to service and draw on the rapid growth in the West Corridor.

4.2 Activity Centre Network

31


Figure 12—Activity Centre Network

32


128 The existing retail GLA and major retailers in the surrounding centres is shown in Table 4

129 The clustering and distance relationships between the Activity Centres of Burnside, Caroline Springs, Brimbank and the smaller Deer Park centre can be compared to other clusters of existing or proposed Activity Centres in the outer west (refer Figure 13).

130 Burnside and Caroline Springs are 4.2 km by road apart while Brimbank (4.3 km) is similar but less relevant given the effect of Kororoit Creek passing between the centres with no crossing points. These three centres fall within a 2 km radius of a central point in Burnside. This grouping is not dissimilar to:

• Point Cook and Williams Landing Activity Centres which are 3km apart while other sub-regional centres at Sanctuary Lakes and Laverton result in three DDS-based centres within a 2km radius – or four major centres in total.

• In central Wyndham, the Werribee, Werribee Plaza and Hoppers Crossing Activity Centres that fall within a 2 km radius of a central point.

• The future Rockbank and Rockbank North Activity Centres which are 2.9 km apart on the same north-south aligned Leakes Road.

CentreRetail GLA

(sqm) Major tenants Developed/extended

Activity Centres

Sydenham• Watergardens Town Centre 56,150 Big W, Target, Coles, Woolworths 1997 / 2007• Watergardens Super Centre1 25,910 Bunnings 2001• Watergardens Super Centre2 17,330 2003• McCubbin Gardens 6,290 2008Total Sydenham 105,680

Caroline Springs• CS Square 18,630 Target, ALDI, Coles 2004 / 2009• Caroline Springs strip 3,370Total Caroline Springs 22,000

Burnside• Burnside Hub 5,963 ALDI, Coles• Ballarat Road* 41,610 Bunnings, Masters (closed)Total Burnside 47,573

Brimbank Shopping Centre 36,640 Target, ALDI, Coles, Woolworths 1979 / 1997Deer Park 4,595 Independent smkt.

Neighbourhood CentresDerrimut 5,230 Coles 2010Cairnlea 4,710 Coles 2006Watervale 5,300 Woolworths 2010Taylors Hill 7,820 Coles 2011* Includes Bunnings, former Masters, West Springs Centre & large format centre.

Source: PCA 2016, Large Format Retail Directory 2016, Deep End Services

Table 4—Activity Centre floorspace

4.3 Comparable spaced centres

33


Figure 13—Relative locations of Activity Centres and other DDS-based centres

131 Noting that Burnside already has a significant area of vacant Commercial 1 zoned land, the practical effect of Burnside’s elevation to an Activity Centre – other than confirming its potential under the current zoning and recognising the surrounding land uses – is relatively small on other centres in terms of impacts on committed or announced developments.

132 Burnside will not prejudice the orderly development of other centres in the region, many of which have reached their intended size or capacity. Caroline Springs, for example, has reached the size anticipated in the MESP while other smaller planned centres in the region have not progressed due to poor locations.

133 While mooted projects at Sydenham and Caroline Springs have not proceeded and Brimbank has had to reorganise its major tenancies and reposition the centre on Kmart’s exit, these tenant-specific decisions show that the market (retailers) is

4.4 Impacts

34


actively reading the strengths and weaknesses of the activity centre network and where the best opportunities lie.

134 It is certainly possible that further stages of Caroline Springs Square could be realised when the Kororoit PSP (26,000 people) develops to the west without a large Activity Centre and major retail tenants review their positions. The population of this area could allocate its shopping needs between a range of centres including Caroline Springs.

135 Caroline Springs Town Centre (Stage 2) and the surrounding neighbourhood centres have had 5-8 years to consolidate their trading patterns across their local catchments since opening. By the time Burnside establishes its first retail stage as an Activity Centre, the period when surrounding centres have operated without new competition will be close to 10 years, or more for some centres.

136 East of Burnside, Deer Park is the nearest designated ‘Activity Centre’. While Plan Melbourne identifies renewal opportunities around Deer Park Station, the activity centre on Ballarat Road has a small and limited retail function and would not be threatened by an expanded Burnside.

137 The elevation of Burnside should have no effect on the timing of Activity Centres in the West Growth Corridor Plan area. Designated centres are 5-10 km from Burnside and will establish when population thresholds support a major supermarket. DDS and other major stores are many years from being viable in these areas.

138 My assessment of the earlier 36,000 sqm retail proposal at Burnside in 2012 (Amendment c 112) concluded that the retail trading impacts on turnover levels at surrounding centres would be in the order of:

• -11% on a larger centre at Caroline Springs • -7% on Brimbank Central • -5% on Watergardens Town Centre • -2.4% to -3.9% on St Albans, Sunshine and Keilor Downs centres • -5% to 10% on neighbourhood centres in the Melton East and Derrimut areas.

139 There is currently no firm retail scheme proposed at Burnside as Amendment C171 simply gives Burnside Activity Centre status and recognises the large area of Commercial 1 zoned land.

140 My expectation is that Burnside will develop in stages with a smaller Stage 1 development on the vacant land than proposed under Amendment C112. My current assumptions of a smaller Stage 1 scheme at Burnside than previously considered, the proposed extensions at Caroline Springs now unlikely to occur in the short term and the elapsed time when further growth has occurred in the region, lead me to conclude that the impacts previously assessed on other centres would now be much lower.

141 The mitigating effects of strong population growth where lost sales are quickly recovered in the region are still applicable.

35


142 A centre of up to 35,000 sqm of retail floorspace would generate approximately 800 new full time equivalent direct and indirect employment opportunities. Offices, medical and other non-retail uses would create more employment and broaden the employment base including white-collar jobs.

143 The market and consumer benefits are:

• A new centre offering high convenience and competition to others in the area. • An expanded range and choice of supermarkets. • A new DDS effectively replacing the vacated DDS at Brimbank and bringing a

differentiated brand to the existing Target stores at Caroline Springs and Brimbank.

• The potential to create a dining and restaurant precinct that serves residents and the local workforce.

144 The local precinct benefits are:

• Orderly and logical development of an existing centre on under-utilised but strategically well located land. The land presents opportunities for a fully integrated centre linking the existing unconnected elements.

• The scheme builds on an existing activity centre as opposed to a new out-of-centre node.

• Designed carefully, Burnside can emerge as a valuable retail and business hub and attractive ‘gateway’ to the City of Melton, just inside its municipal border.

• The Activity Centre boundary includes part of the Ravenhall (Ballarat Road) employment land and could be extended over other frontages in the future.

• The opportunity to provide retail, personal and professional services to businesses and employees in Ravenhall.

4.5 Benefits

36


145 There is a strong economic case to support Burnside’s elevation from a neighbourhood centre to an Activity Centre, as proposed in the Council-endorsed MRACS and Amendment C171 where it gains policy recognition in the Melton Planning Scheme.

146 My analysis supports the MRACS finding that Burnside will have a minimum core catchment population of 35,000 people to support its Activity Centre status while drawing on a much larger sub-regional catchment through its arterial road exposure, surrounding employment uses and direct highway links to the West Growth Corridor.

147 Burnside is uniquely positioned between the established areas of Brimbank to the east, the recent growth area of East Melton to the north, the emerging growth corridor to the west and one of Melbourne’s largest employment nodes to the south. These areas are linked by Ballarat Road and a future extended and widened Westwood Drive. Burnside is the closest activity centre to the new Caroline Springs station where bus connections can be enhanced.

148 These attributes and the current number and distribution of DDS brands in the region suggest the centre can attract interest from a DDS operator to facilitate a sub-regional retail function. With this commitment, a range of other retail and non-retail uses will inevitably be attracted to the centre.

149 Burnside meets the intended role of an Activity Centre and should satisfy most, if not all, the other land use and employment criteria set out in the MRACS.

150 The distance, road connections and shared population between Burnside and Caroline Springs is like other groupings of Activity Centres or sub-regional centres in the outer west.

Conclusions

37


151 There has been little change to the surrounding activity centre network in recent years despite continuing population growth. Proposed expansions at Caroline Springs and Watergardens have been shelved or delayed due to a lack of major tenant interest. Burnside, on the other hand, has different location characteristics and is attracting interest from major retailers. I have an expectation that Burnside can deliver a new, differentiated DDS and an improved supermarket and specialty shop offering with a range of other non-retail and employment generating uses.

152 A staged development of Burnside will have lower trading impacts on surrounding centres than previously assessed under Amendment C112.

153 Amendment C171 acknowledges the zoning realities of the Burnside centre although, in my view, there are many strategic and economic arguments in favour of its Activity Centre status. The centre will be developed as a valuable centre and employment asset for the City of Melton. For all the above reasons, I support the Amendment.

Chris Abery Principal, Deep End Services 20 March 2017

38


Appendix A Curriculum Vitae – Chris Abery Principal, Deep End Services Pty Ltd June 2009 – current

Director, Property Economics, Urbis March 2007 - May 2009

National Manager, Strategy & Property Analysis, Coles Myer October 2000 - March 2007

Strategic Analyst, Manager Strategy (Property), Coles Myer October 1992 - October 2000

Strategic Planner, Senior Consultant, Ratio Consultants November 1985 - October 1992

Bachelor Town & Regional Planning, University of Melbourne (1985)

Graduate Diploma Social Statistics, Swinburne (1990)

Extensive knowledge of the retail property industry and shopping centre locations throughout Australia and NZ including major and regional areas and growth corridors:

• Retailer location requirements and industry contacts. • Site location analysis & retail network planning and optimization. • Growth area structure planning for activity centres. • Development and execution of new store sales forecasting and impact models. • Due diligence studies for site / asset acquisitions. • Market studies, site evaluations and highest and best use recommendations. • Articulation of planning and policy issues and submissions to authorities for retail

and property clients. • Retail planning, layout and facilities (composition & mix) advice. • Turnover potential of retail schemes. • Economic impact or need / demand studies. • Preparation of witness statements and expert advice to planning hearings.

Principal, Deep End Services (June 2009 - current)

Chris joined Deep End Services in June 2009 to assist clients with a common requirement - the need to quantify the effects of the location of their business or property on sales, profitability, growth and income. “DEEP” represents three core service areas:

• Demand Evaluation • Economics

Current Position:

Previous Positions:

Academic Qualifications:

Skills / Attributes:

Professional Experience

39


• Planning

Within each of these three areas, Deep End Services provides consulting advice to retailers, property owners, property developers and others such as financial institutions, infrastructure providers and industry associations. The products offered included:

• Store network planning and sales forecasting • Acquisition due diligence • Feasibility analysis • Economic impact assessment

Deep’s property clients include:

• Amcor, AMP, Australand, Brookfield Multiplex, Cbus Property, Charter Hall Retail REIT, Federation Centres, Harvey Norman, ISPT, Lend Lease, MAB Corporation, Macquarie Bank, Mirvac, Orica, Pellicano, Places Victoria, Stockland, Walker Corporation and Westfield

Deep’s retail clients include:

• ALDI, Anaconda, Baby Bunting, Beacon Lighting, Cheap as Chips, City Farmers, Clark Rubber, Coles, Harris Scarfe, Masters, Pacific Brands, Pet Barn, Quick Service Restaurant Holdings, Spotlight, The Good Guys, Trade Secret and Woolworths

Deep’s other clients include:

• ANZ, Westpac, Crescendo Partners, InterContinental Hotels Group, KPMG, Large Format Retail Association, Medibank Private, Melbourne Racing Club, Newcastle Permanent Building Society and Reading Entertainment

Director, Property Economics, Urbis (March 2007 - May 2009)

Director of Property Economics, Urbis in Melbourne from March 2007 - May 2009. During that time, Chris lead projects for national retailers and shopping centre owners and developers throughout Australia including economic impact assessments, market demand studies, retail planning, facility briefs and scheme assessments, due diligence reports, network analysis and new store sales forecasting. Chris led a team within the Melbourne office and was responsible for all retail based consulting work from the Brisbane office.

• Retail Scheme Assessments - Westfield, Stockland, Vinta, Cedar Woods, FKP, Leightons, Australand, Challenger, Pentridge Village, QIC, Salta / Centro, Port Bouvard, Insurance Commission of WA.

• Economic Impact Assessments - Coles / Australian Unity, Vinta, Bourse, Ticor, Leda, Eureka Funds, McDonalds, Stockland, ING, Consolidated Properties, Valad, Silverton.

• Due Diligence Reports - Wesfarmers acquisition of Coles Group. Potential acquisitions by Abacus Property Group, Centro, Australand, Macquarie Bank.

• Growth area planning, Network Planning & Store Location Advice - Delfin, Clarkson Properties, Bunnings, Officeworks, Aldi, KFC.

40


• Retail Store Turnover Forecasting - Woolworths, Officeworks, Australand, Equiset.

• Market Profile Reports - Woolworths, Centro. • Witness Statements / Expert Evidence - Leightons, Eureka Funds, Peninsula

Development Group.

National Manager, Strategy & Property Analysis, Coles Myer Ltd (October 1992 - March 2007)

Chris held senior roles for 14 years in the property team at Coles Myer Ltd where, as National Manager Strategy and Property Analysis he led the team responsible for network planning, site analysis and new store sales forecasting across the group (Coles, Bi-Lo, Kmart, Target, Officeworks, First Choice Liquor, Myer).

He gained an extensive knowledge of Coles and competitor store networks and their host centres throughout Australia and extensively researched population growth corridors and their development potential including identifying sites for freehold acquisition.

Chris pioneered the spatial analysis of customer loyalty data, adapting and modifying data to illustrate individual store and overall network based market penetration maps. The data and benchmarking was used extensively in network planning and the development of analogue forecasting methods which achieved world best practice in cost and accuracy.

Chris provided strategic and market advice on major property and business acquisitions and on key planning and policy issues.

Chris presentations to the Coles Myer Board, senior management teams and external advisors on retail property, market and network issues, development and roll-out of new store formats and implications of potential acquisitions.

Strategic Planner, Senior Consultant, Ratio Consultants (1985 - 1992)

From 1985 - 1992, Chris was employed as a strategic planner with Ratio Consultants specialising in retail demand studies, impact assessments and economic analysis for shopping centre clients. Chris was also extensively involved in a range of activity centre and structure planning studies for local and state government clients.

Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme...Activity Centres Strategy (MRACS) and Clause 21.05 of the...

Documents

Transcript of Amendment C171 Melton Planning Scheme...Activity Centres Strategy (MRACS) and Clause 21.05 of the...