Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S....

Alpine Space

Prospective Study

T. Bausch (D)T. Dax (A)

U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH)

S. Praper (SLO)M. Vanier (F)

© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

The Alpine Space Prospective Study

Alpine Space SummitJune 20th 2006, Stresa

Thomas BauschMartin Vanier

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

The research approach

I phase

II phase

III phase

Analysis A:Territorial

trends in the Alpine area

Analysis B: Territorial

policies in the Alpine area

Analysis C:The Alpine

Space programme

Substantial key issues

Procedural key issues

Strategic key players

Immediate strategic projects

Shared scenario

Strategic Projects after

2006

Programme improvement

after 2006

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

1 Analyses

1.1 Economic, social and territorial trends

1.2 Spatial policies in the Alpine area

1.3 The Alpine Space Interreg IIIB programme

2 Findings

2.1 Substantive key issues

2.2 Procedural key issues

2.3 Key actors

3 Proposals

3.1 Shared scenarios for the Alpine territory

3.2 Proposals for improving cooperation after 2006

3.3 Potential strategic projects

Structure of the study

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area

territorial = trends with a longer lasting trends influence to a spatial

(sustainable) development

main fields of trend-analysis:

natural resources and biodiversity economy social and cultural welfare

(including R&D)

Territorial trend definition

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

1. Territorial trends in the Alpine area

scan of sourcesstatistical reports, EU documents, results of

SPESP, ESPON, OECD, EEA and other EU agencies

potential trendsfields of territorial development

and described trends

trends with high impactto the Alpine Space

experts survey

main alpine trendsdetail analysis to

each territorial type

Research approach

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

34 trendsin 4 main groups

each group 3-6fields of territorialdevelopment

field of territorial development no.: trend (short description)

A: natural resources and biodiversity habitats and biodiverstity 1: loss of habitats and biodiversity

air pollution and climate 2: increasing environmental damages by transport

landscapes 3: variety of landscapes endangered

natural heritage 4: increasing pressure on natural resources and natural heritage

natural hazards 5: dynamic increase of natural hazards

nature protection 6: growing extent of protected areas in the EU

water resources 7: deterioration of water resource quality

waste 8: increase of waste

B: economy 9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge

10: knowledge economy and society are progressing

11: economic restructuring is expected to accelerate

accessibility

12: increasing administration costs

13: increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline transportation

14: growing impact of transportation on the environment

energy 15: rising energy consumption

16: declining State aid and funding state and society

17: continuing direct public support to SMEs

agriculture 18: growing competition in agriculture

19: dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector tourism

20: growth of city and cultural tourism

C: Culture and social welfare cultural heritage 21: New meanings and weight of cultural heritage due to EU enlargement

22: overaging population

23: depopulation

24: decline of working age population

population

25: growth in immigration (here: outmigration from metropolitans to core)

26: increasing social protection expenditure and administration costs state and society

27: declining public expenditure across the EU

28: growing interest in higher education, but also stronger competition between universities3

29: emerging opportunities for European cities as R&D locations

science, technology and education

30: societal preconditions and priorities for R&D are in transformation

D: spatial development 31: economic concentration in the EU / growing disparities economic concentration

32: spreading of economic power

spatial disparities 33: increasing regional differences of job opportunities / unemployment

urbanization 34: urbanisation and counter-urbanization processes are taking place

B: economy

A: natural resources and biodiversity

C: cultural and social affairs

D: spatial development

1 Territorial trends in the Alpine areaTrendlist extracted from sources

B: economy

accessibility 9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge

10: knowledge economy and society are progressing

11: economic restructuring is expected to accelerate

12: increasing administration costs

transportation 13: increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline

14: growing impact of transportation on the environment

energy 15: rising energy consumption

state and society

16: declining State aid and funding

17: continuing direct public support to SMEs

agriculture 18: growing competition in agriculture

tourism 19: dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector

20: growth of city and cultural tourism

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

territorial trends Alpine Space

1

2

34

5

6

78

9

10

11

12

1314

1516

17

18

1920

21

22

23

24

2526

27

28

29

30

31

3233

34

dynamic

du

rati

on

sh

ort

er

lon

ge

r

low high

Alpine Space specific impact

strong

medium

weak


B: economy

C: Culture and social welfare


1 Territorial trends in the Alpine areaTrendanalysis based on expert survey (1)

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

1: loss of habitats and biodiversity

2: increasing environmental damages by transport

3: variety of landscapes endangered

5: dynamic increase of natural hazards

9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge

13: increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline

14: growing impact of trans-portation on the environment

19: dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector

22: overaging population

1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area

Trendanalysis based on expert survey (2)


B: economy



Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

Definition top-trends: strong territorial impact (below 1,4), over average dynamic (below 1,92) and over average duration (below 1,7)

1 Territorial trends in the Alpine areaAlpine Space top trends

top territorial trends entire Alpine space

impact to alpine

space

trend no.

trend short description

1,00 5 dynamic increase of natural hazards

1,10 1 loss of habitats and biodiversity

1,20 3 variety of landscapes endangered

1,20 4 increasing pressure on natural resources and natural heritage

1,20 9 growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge

1,30 22 overaging population

1,40 28 growing interest in higher education, stronger competition between universities

1,40 29 emerging opportunities for European cities as R&D locations


B: economy



Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

impact to territorial trend mountain

area mountain

cities peri-alpine

regions

2: increasing environmental damages by transport + ++ +

5: dynamic increase of natural hazards +++ + +

9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge + ++ +

13: increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline +++ ++ +++

15: rising energy consumption ++ + +

16: declining State aid and funding ++ +

18: growing competition in agriculture ++ +

19: dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector ++ +

20: growth of city and cultural tourism + ++ +

22: overaging population ++ + +

23: depopulation ++

25: growth in immigration (outmigration from metropolitans to core) + ++ +++

31: economic concentration in the EU / growing disparities ++ + ++

34: urbanisation and counter-urbanization processes are taking place + ++ +


B: economy



1 Territorial trends in the Alpine areaTrends with specific impact to area types

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

Proposals

Six prospective visions about a shared scenario for the Alpine territory

Potential strategic projects

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

1. Alpine core and the MEGAs

Metropolisation, attractiveness, global sustainability, protection, city/mountain, solidarity, international tourism…

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

2. Regional diversity: puzzle and « coopetition »

« coopetition » (mix of cooperation and competition), territorial systems, multi-level governance, clusters, cultural partnerships, regional heritage,

local development

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

3. North-South mediation

Transit routes, governmental cooperation, infrastructures, impacts, ports and airports, technological risks

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

4. Networks, corridors, connecting elements

Polycentrism, distribution, knowledge networks, mobility management

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

5. Openness and enlargement

River basin, openness, enlargement, « little Europes », solidarity, Alpine experience

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

6. Positionning: we and the others

Globalisation, international tourism, alpine amenities, global competition, image, joint promotion

--------------------------

Six visions to organise the debate about strategic orientations

Visions 1, 2, 3: internal regulation and management of alpine diversity

Visions 4, 5, 6: integration in a wider global perspective and preservation of it specificity

Towards a permanent forum on the Alpine Space scenarios

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

Ideas for potential strategic projects (2007-2013)

Project ideas connected with preparation and implementation of the Alpine Space programme

• Alpine Space 2020• Preparatory projects (e.g. Climate Change in the Alps)• Synthesis and dissemination projects• Projects accompanying programme implementation• ---

Project ideas connected with strategic key issues

• Metropolitain / urban network of the Alpine Space• Rural-urban relations at work• Regional development observatory• Territorial effects of « brain drain »• « Destination Alpine Space »• Sustainable tourism in the Alpine Space• Mobility chain in the Alpine Space• Public passenger transport in the Alpine Space• ---

Alpine Space

Prospective Study




© 2005-2006

INTERREG IIIB

Full report and executive summary please refer to programme WEB-site

Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S....

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