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Transcript of Allianz global investors
Understand. Act.
Risk: A new
understanding
January 2013
Not for distribution to retail clients
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 2
12-11055\P-RiskMaster\TH\071212
January 2013
Contents
risklab in numbers
Risk: A new understanding
Allianz RiskMaster Funds
01
02
03
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 3
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January 2013
1
risklab in numbers
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
risklab in numbers
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January 2013
World leading provider of strategic investment and risk solutions
15 years
experience
31 team
members
28 bn EUR
under supervision
11 Ph.Ds
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
Source: risklab, January 2013.
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 5
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2
Risk: A new understanding
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Risk: A new understanding
6
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Four key elements to manage risk and return in today's markets
1 Asset class coverage
Broad coverage of all asset classes including absolute return strategies, commodities, real estate and derivatives
2 Advanced modelling
Advanced modelling beyond normal distributions to account for unpredictable events
3 Robust optimisation
Account for the uncertainties in parameters with robust methodology
4 Dynamic asset allocation
Manage risk by using forward looking tools to optimise risk return characteristics of portfolios
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Asset class coverage
Investors should cover a broad universe of traditional and alternative asset classes, both liquid and illiquid to
capture return opportunities
Investing in a broad asset allocation with several asset classes in order to profit from the only “free lunch”:
diversification
Top performing asset classes change over time therefore an allocation to a diversified basket of asset classes
reduces timing risks
For example the Allianz RiskMaster funds cover a broad asset class universe including
- Gilts
- Corporate Bonds
- Emerging Market Bonds
- Global Equities
- Emerging Market Equities
- Absolute Return Strategies
- Commodities
- Property
- Cash
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Broad asset class coverage to make use of diversification to reduce risk
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Asset Class Coverage Diversification – The only free lunch in capital markets
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Global Equities
Emerging Markets
Commodities
Real Estate
Hedge Funds
Emerging Markets Bonds
UK Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Glo
bal E
quiti
es
Em
erg
ing M
ark
ets
Com
moditi
es
Real E
sta
te
Hedge F
unds
Em
erg
ing M
ark
ets
Bonds
UK
Bonds
Corp
ora
te B
onds
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Correlations show us diversification is vital in reducing risk
Source: risklab. Data: Bloomberg. Historical linear correlations of benchmark indices over the period January 2001 to February 2012.
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Risk: A new understanding
9
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Four key elements to manage risk and return in today's markets
1 Asset class coverage
Broad coverage of all asset classes including absolute return strategies, commodities, real estate and derivatives
2 Advanced modelling
Advanced modelling beyond normal distributions to account for unpredictable events
3 Robust optimisation
Account for the uncertainties in parameters with robust methodology
4 Dynamic asset allocation
Manage risk by using forward looking tools to optimise risk return characteristics of portfolios
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Advanced Modelling Sep/Oct 08: The normal distribution underestimates the actual risks
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It is key to understand the risks of black swan events
Stocks (S&P 500)
Inflation-Linked Bonds (Barcap World Inflation Linked Bonds)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
* under the assumption of normally distributed returns. Source: risklab, based on Bloomberg data 1999-2008.
Sep
-Oct 0
8
Return (2 months) -24.21%
Deviation -5.01 σ
Occurs every* 598K years
Sep
-Oct 0
8
Return (2 months) -10.68%
Deviation -6.97 σ
Occurs every* 106B years
European High-Yield Bonds (ML European Currency HY Constrained)
Commodities (Dow Jones UBS Commodity)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sep
-Oct 0
8
Return (2 months) -23.79%
Deviation -6.06 σ
Occurs every* 247M years
Sep
-Oct 0
8
Return (2 months) -30.36%
Deviation -5.05 σ
Occurs every* 742K years
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Advanced Modelling
The known unknowns…
In volatile markets a realistic modelling of returns is vital in building portfolios which are better able to withstand
negative market events
At risklab we have designed a proprietary economic scenario generator to help to understand potential economic
scenarios and the consequences for asset class returns
A realistic modelling of individual asset classes as well as modelling asset classes in relation to other risk
factors/asset classes is crucial to provide the best possible understanding
Forward looking modelling allows you to identify the potential clustering of risks in your portfolio
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You must understand individual risks, how they relate to each other and how they relate to your
portfolio
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Risk: A new understanding
12
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January 2013
Four key elements to manage risk and return in today's markets
1 Asset class coverage
Broad coverage of all asset classes including absolute return strategies, commodities, real estate and derivatives
2 Advanced modelling
Advanced modelling beyond normal distributions to account for unpredictable events
3 Robust optimisation
Account for the uncertainties in parameters with robust methodology
4 Dynamic asset allocation
Manage risk by using forward looking tools to optimise risk return characteristics of portfolios
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Robust optimisation
There is uncertainty attached to expected return and risk measures because the parameter estimates (samples) are never exact
Traditional portfolio optimisation is dependent on the input data. Even marginal changes in the input parameters can consequently
lead to completely different portfolio allocations
A robust optimisation incorporates the estimation risk of the used parameters (bottom left).
This leads to more balanced allocation structures along the resulting efficient frontier (bottom right) and increased diversification
benefits.
13
Use forward looking measures to remove historical bias from inefficient sampling
Incorporation of the estimation risk (Illustration) Robust Optimisation (Illustration)
Risk
Return
Retu
rn
Ris
k
Portfolio: Sample Mean
Portfolio: Sample Volatility
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
January 2013
12-11055\P-RiskMaster\TH\071212
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Risk: A new understanding
14
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January 2013
Four key elements to manage risk and return in today's markets
1 Asset class coverage
Broad coverage of all asset classes including absolute return strategies, commodities, real estate and derivatives
2 Advanced modelling
Advanced modelling beyond normal distributions to account for unpredictable events
3 Robust optimisation
Account for the uncertainties in parameters with robust methodology
4 Dynamic asset allocation
Manage risk by using forward looking tools to optimise risk return characteristics of portfolios
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Dynamic Asset Allocation Dynamic investment and risk management
Static asset allocations offer diversification but fail to capture the upside and actively manage risk
Today's volatile markets make asset allocation harder than ever
A rules-based dynamic approach is best placed to avoid behavioural bias and manage risk
Forward looking scenario analysis should be applied to provide most reliable risk-return profile
Regular active asset allocations reduce the clustering of risks in your portfolio, we recommend monthly
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Use diversification and then dynamic asset allocation to manage potential risks and gain upside
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Dynamic Asset Allocation Dynamic allocation between asset classes is key
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Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
15.07 4.49 16.22 16.81 4.77 4.16 8.25 12.11 10.63 4.02
12.14 1.51 13.96 13.12 3.01 3.36 6.29 10.09 9.81 3.76
10.68 1.50 13.41 12.12 1.66 2.89 4.65 8.45 9.19 2.63
9.64 0.90 12.45 9.27 1.37 2.78 -0.30 7.62 8.87 1.91
8.86 -2.89 12.29 8.28 0.73 2.47 -3.87 6.99 7.99 0.64
6.02 -3.36 6.27 6.99 0.65 1.73 -6.11 5.36 7.95 -1.51
5.67 -6.61 6.18 6.84 0.46 1.72 -8.96 5.01 4.39 -1.86
4.77 -6.97 5.76 4.72 0.20 0.16 -12.22 4.42 3.92 -2.07
3.90 -8.70 3.60 3.27 -0.23 -0.23 -13.12 3.32 3.15 -2.67
2.38 -10.09 3.48 1.13 -0.79 -0.29 -14.77 1.24 -1.44 -2.98
1.71 -12.53 3.12 -1.06 -0.96 -1.17 -17.56 0.46 -1.74 -5.47
1.14 -12.92 1.74 -2.08 -1.15 -2.47 -20.48 -0.43 -2.09 -6.90
0.95 -14.02 0.74 -2.64 -7.65 -6.74 -23.97 -2.99 -2.16 -7.09
Key
UK Corporate Bonds
UK Index Linked Bonds
International Bonds
Commodities
UK Property
Hedge Funds
UK Gilts
EM Equities
Europe ex UK Equities
North American Equities
Japanese Equities
Pacific ex Japan Equities
UK Equities
Volatility makes predicting falls and rises in markets hard
Source: Bloomberg, as at 30/08/12.
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 17
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3
Allianz RiskMaster Funds
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
Allianz RiskMaster Funds
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Source: AllianzGI UK. 1. These voluntary bandings may be breached – this range covers approximately 80% of the 12 month volatility.
Allianz RiskMaster Defensive
Expected volatility range: 7% - 11%1
Share classes / fees: C: 0.75%
Aim: The Allianz RiskMaster Defensive Fund aims to achieve long term
capital growth by maintaining a bias towards investments which are
considered lower to medium risk but may hold some investments which are
considered higher risk.
Allianz RiskMaster Conservative
Expected volatility range: 10% - 14%1
Share classes / fees: C: 0.75%
Aim: The Allianz RiskMaster Conservative Fund aims to achieve long term
capital growth by maintaining a balance between investments which are
considered lower to medium risk and those which are considered higher risk.
Allianz RiskMaster Moderate
Expected volatility range: 12% - 17%1
Share classes / fees: C: 0.75%
Aim: The Allianz RiskMaster Moderate Fund aims to achieve long term
capital growth by maintaining a bias towards investments which are
considered higher risk but may invest, to lesser degree, in investments
considered lower to medium risk.
Allianz RiskMaster Growth
Expected volatility range: 15% - 20%1
Share classes / fees: C: 0.75%
Aim: The Allianz RiskMaster Growth Fund aims to achieve long term capital
growth by investing in investments which are considered higher risk but may,
on an ancillary basis, invest in investment considered lower to medium risk.
RiskMaster the first time the expertise of risklab is available to retail investors
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
What makes the Allianz RiskMaster Funds really different?
1. The Allianz RiskMaster Funds are advised by risklab - A world leader in the provision of strategic
investment and risk solutions.
2. We use our own proprietary forward looking asset allocation models - important in today's
modern macro-economic environment.
3. Asset allocation is well diversified across a selected group of 14 major asset classes including
commodities, absolute return vehicles and property.
4. Portfolio asset allocation changes are usually made on a monthly basis which we believe
gives us the best potential of capturing upside gains and avoiding losses in more volatile markets.
5. The asset allocation involves a rules based approach avoiding key man risk and behavioural
bias in portfolios.
6. Backed by our unique "Fee Promise" - If any of the RiskMaster Funds has its launch risk
category changed Allianz Global Investors will not charge its management fee for the next three
months (see www.allianzriskmaster.co.uk for further details).
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Allianz RiskMaster Funds – powered by proven leaders in Multi Asset Investing
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 20
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January 2013
A
Appendix
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
risklab Services on offer
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Wide ranging expertise and offering
Risk Management Pension Investing Alternative Beta Strategic Asset Allocation/
Asset Liability Management
Total Portfolios
Structured Products
Portfolios
Absolute Return Portfolios
Illiquid Portfolios
SRI1 Portfolios
Dynamic asset allocation
strategies
Tail Risk Hedging
Hedging Strategies
(e.g. Inflation, Longevity)
Guarantee Structures
Liability Driven Investing
DC Investment Plan Design
and LifeCycle Investing
Dynamic surplus returns
management
Volatility asset class
Commodity asset class
1Socially Responsible Investing.
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 -
risklab Size and clients
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1Source: risklab as at 31.12.2011 2Source: risklab as at 30.11.2012.
Asset Development
Assets under supervision
On-Going Advice
Strong business growth and diverse client base
2011: >160bn EUR1
Corporate Clients (Pension) 39%
Pension Funds, 21%
Banks, 11%
Consultants, 7%
Insurances, 6%
Investment Companies, 6%
Foundations, 6%
Family Offices, 4%
0
2.7
5.77.1 7.7 8.5
23.5
28.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU
R b
n
Assets Consulted Over 100 clients2
Client Structure
Percentage distribution clients
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
© Copyright Allianz Global Investors AG 2012 - 23
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January 2013
Disclaimer
Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount
invested.
The volatility of fund unit prices may be increased or even strongly increased. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If the currency in which
the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which the investor resides, then the investor should be aware that due to the exchange
rate fluctuations the performance shown may be higher or lower if converted into the investor’s local currency.
This is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation or an invitation to make an offer, to conclude a contract, or to buy or sell any securities. The
products or securities described herein may not be available for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This is for distribution only as permitted
by applicable law and in particular not available to residents and/or nationals of the USA. The investment opportunities described herein do not take into account the
specific investment objectives, financial situation, knowledge, experience or specific needs of any particular person and are not guaranteed.
The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer and/or its affiliated companies at the time of
publication. The data used is derived from various sources, and assumed to be correct and reliable, but it has not been independently verified; its accuracy or
completeness is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use, unless caused by gross negligence or wilful
misconduct. The conditions of any underlying offer or contract that may have been, or will be, made or concluded, shall prevail.
Contact the issuer electronically or via mail at the address indicated below for a free copy of the sales prospectuses, the incorporation documents, the latest annual
and semi-annual financial reports and the key investor information document in English. Please read these documents - which are solely binding - carefully before
investing. This is a marketing communication. Issued by Allianz Global Investors www.allianzglobalinvestors.co.uk, a private limited company ,incorporated in the
UK, with its registered office at 155 Bishopsgate , EC2M 3AD, London authorized by the Financial Services Authority (ww.fsa.gov.uk). The duplication, publication, or
transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
risklab in numbers | Risk: A new understanding | Allianz RiskMaster Funds | Appendix
Understand. Act.
Thank you