Algeria Oil Gas Financial Report, Rev 3, 29 December 2009 No Page · 1 Executive Summary The...

ALGERIA

Oil and Gas Fields

Financial Report

By

Sixth Edition

June 2015

Contents and a sample field only

This is the Sixth Edition of our Algeria Oil and Gas Field Financial Report. It contains 509 pages and includes economic assessment

on 65 developed and undeveloped fields in Algeria

For a full list of clients see: http://www.bayphase.com/clients.php

Our Product Clients

1 Executive Summary The Algeria Oil and Gas Financial Report presents the results of an economic evaluation of each discovered producing and non-producing field in Algeria. This is a complementary publication to our Algeria Strategic Report which amongst other things evaluates the reserves, production potential and key technical data for all of the discovered fields that Bayphase has identified in Algeria; a total of 65 fields. The Algeria Strategic Report has been compiled and over a ten year period – since 2005 – and in our view it provides the best overall assessment of the potential of Algeria’s oil and gas fields available to the industry today.

1.1 Basis The evaluation has been conducted on a field by field basis. Fields have been grouped by hydrocarbon province, hydrocarbon type - oil field or non-associated gas field - and current status: producing or non-producing. Each of the fields was evaluated against the following scenario matrix:

Table 1.1: Economic Scenarios Matrix for each Field Evaluation

Exploitation Cost

Products Price

Low (Oil – 40$/bbl)

Medium (Oil – 60$/bbl)

High (Oil – 80$/bbl)

Low √ √ √

Medium √ √ √ High √ √ √

The products price included for oil and gas pricing but only the price for oil is shown here; the pricing assumed for the other products is given in the body of the Report. The Exploitation Cost considered all of the elements required to fully develop each property over a period no longer that 301 years including exploration, appraisal, development, production and abandonment:

• Producing Fields: current production level was assumed to continue into 2015 and be adjusted dependent on the field’s potential and amount of investment applied.

• Non-producing Fields: evaluation/exploration activities were assumed to commence in 2015 and production achieved in a timescale commensurate with the field’s potential and normal periods experienced in implementing the activities associated with field exploitation.(This assumption was used as at this current point in time it is impossible to forecast which of these fields will be exploited first and when that exploitation will start)

The Exploitation Cost was based on evaluation work conducted for our Algeria Strategic Report but three levels of cost were used to reflect the uncertainty

1 Due to reserves size a significant number of fields in Algeria could produce for longer than 30 years but the 30 year limit was thought to provide a sensible economic cut-off. Clearly where a field was of a reserve such that it was unlikely to produce for 30 years it was only considered over its field life: 7, 15, 20 or what ever that life was predicted to be.

associated with estimating exploitation costs very early in the field development planning process: Low, Medium and High; Low and High costs were derived directly from our Algeria Strategic Report. We believe the result is a fully ranged, considered assessment of each field that shows how they can perform economically if all the indicators are very positive and also what will happen if these indicators downturn.

There are three different methods were used to evaluate the fields. They are:

• Discounted Cash Flow

• Market Approach

• Cost Approach Those three different methods are well known and completely different methods, to evaluate any asset. Any of them has it’s own advantages and disadvantages. Detailed explanation of each of them is presented in the table below. Table 1.2 Valuation Methods Comparison Table

Valuation Method Producing Fields Non-Producing Fields

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Yes Yes

Market Approach Yes Yes

Cost Approach No Yes

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis was used to evaluate each field using appropriate commercial term which is Royalty and Tax System (R/T) most common fiscal system used by Algeria, also announced in 2005 new Algerian Hydrocarbons Law has adjusted. The economic performance outcomes presented in the method are:

• Net Present Value

• Internal Rate of Return These are presented from three different perspectives:

• International Oil Company (IOC)

• National Oil Company (NOC)

• Project Market Approach evaluation was used on basis of recent known Oil and Gas transaction made in Africa on $/BOE basis. Then the assumed base $/BOE price was adjusted by the different factors such as: Field Specific Factor, Cost Factor and Price Factor to calculate the field’s Market Value.

• Field Specific Factor – Field’s Reserve and Development Scheme Factor

• Cost Factor- Field’s Development and Exploration Costs

• Price Factor – Current Oil and Gas Price Furthermore the field’s Market Value ranged from its Minimum to Maximum value using a three different Market Value Adjustment Scenario (MVAS). They are:

• Pessimistic with probability Minimum - 25% and Maximum - 50%

• Realistic with probability Minimum - 45% and Maximum - 75%

• Optimistic with probability Minimum - 65% and Maximum - 90% The economic performance outcomes presented in the method are:

• Minimum Market Value

• Maximum Market Value These are presented from three different perspectives:



• Project Cost Approach evaluation method was used only for Non-Producing fields, on basis of past exploration expenditures done and warranted futures exploration expenditures. The sum of Retained Value on past work and Warranted Future exploration cost is equal to the Value of the Field. 100% of all Future exploration costs were assumed for calculation of the values of the field, where for past exploration costs are unknown, the assumption of different percentages was used regarding to the reserves and $/BOE exploration expenditures. The used assumptions are:

• Low Percentage – 30%

• Medium Percentage – 40%

• High Percentage – 50% Then calculated value adjusted by the Cost Factors to calculate the field’s Value. And the field’s Value ranged from its Minimum to Maximum value using a three different Market Value Adjustment Scenario (MVAS). They are:

• Pessimistic with probability Minimum - 25% and Maximum - 50%

• Realistic with probability Minimum - 45% and Maximum - 75%

• Optimistic with probability Minimum - 65% and Maximum - 90% The economic performance outcomes presented in the report are:

• Minimum Market Value

• Maximum Market Value These are presented from three different perspectives:



• Project The result is that the economic performance of a given field can be viewed from a range of perspectives:

• Summary Project Performance

• IOC Performance, this can be reviewed under a range of cost and price scenarios

• NOC Performance, again this can be reviewed under a range of cost and price scenarios

Report History

• 5th Edition April 2014 • 4th Edition April 2013 • 3rd Edition December 2011 • 2nd Edition October 2010 • 1st Edition January 2010

What You Get

• Paper version of our current Algeria Fields Financial Report • Free Searchable CDRom of our current Algeria Fields Financial Report

Contents Contents ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 4

1.1 Basis ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Results ................................................................................................................. 7

2 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 17 2.1 Reserves and Exploitation Cost ......................................................................... 18

3 Economic Model ..................................................................................................... 19 3.1 Model Basis ....................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Analysis Results ................................................................................................ 21

4 Economic Assumptions .......................................................................................... 24 4.1 Fiscal System ..................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Evaluation Time ................................................................................................ 24 4.3 Reserve Forecast ................................................................................................ 24 4.4 Product Price ...................................................................................................... 24 4.5 Project Costs ...................................................................................................... 24

4.5.1 Capital Expenditures ................................................................................... 25 4.5.2 Operating Expenditures .............................................................................. 25

4.6 Taxes and Royalty ............................................................................................. 26 4.7 Discount Factor .................................................................................................. 26 4.8 Evaluation Methodology ................................................................................... 26

5 Economic Analysis .................................................................................................. 27 5.1 Oil Fields ........................................................................................................... 28

5.1.1 Grand Erg/Ahnet Basin ........................................................................... 29 5.1.1.1 Producing Fields .................................................................................. 30 5.1.1.2 Non-Producing Fields .......................................................................... 31

5.1.1.2.1 Azzene .......................................................................................... 32 5.1.1.2.2 Decheira ........................................................................................ 38 5.1.1.2.3 Oued Tourhar ................................................................................ 44

5.1.2 Trias/Ghadames Basin ............................................................................. 50 5.1.2.1 Producing Fields .................................................................................. 51

5.1.2.1.1 Berkine North East ....................................................................... 52 5.1.2.1.2 Bir Rebaa ...................................................................................... 58

Page 1 of 509

5.1.2.1.3 El Agreb ........................................................................................ 64 5.1.2.1.4 El Borma ....................................................................................... 70 5.1.2.1.5 El Gassi ......................................................................................... 76 5.1.2.1.6 Guellala ......................................................................................... 82 5.1.2.1.7 Haoud Berkaoui ............................................................................ 88 5.1.2.1.8 Hassi Berkine ................................................................................ 94 5.1.2.1.9 Hassi Berkine South ................................................................... 100 5.1.2.1.10 Hassi Berkine South East ......................................................... 106 5.1.2.1.11 Hassi Messasoud ....................................................................... 112 5.1.2.1.12 Menzal Ledjmet Group Fields .................................................. 118 5.1.2.1.13 Mesdar ...................................................................................... 124 5.1.2.1.14 Ourhoud .................................................................................... 130 5.1.2.1.15 Qoubba North ........................................................................... 136 5.1.2.1.16 Rhourde Berkine ....................................................................... 142 5.1.2.1.17 Rhourde El Baguel .................................................................... 148 5.1.2.1.18 Rhourde El Khrouf ................................................................... 154 5.1.2.1.19 Rhourde Nouss ......................................................................... 160 5.1.2.1.20 ROD Group Fields .................................................................... 166 5.1.2.1.21 Zotti .......................................................................................... 172

5.1.2.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 178 5.1.2.2.1 Bir Seba ...................................................................................... 179 5.1.2.2.2 El Kheit Et Tessekha .................................................................. 185 5.1.2.2.3 El Merk North ............................................................................. 191 5.1.2.2.4 El Merk East ............................................................................... 197 5.1.2.2.5 El Merk ....................................................................................... 203 5.1.2.2.6 Gassi Toual ................................................................................. 209 5.1.2.2.7 Hassi Berkine North East ........................................................... 215

5.1.3 Illizi Basin ................................................................................................. 221 5.1.3.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 222

5.1.3.1.1 Edjeleh ........................................................................................ 223 5.1.3.1.2 El Adeb Larache ......................................................................... 229 5.1.3.1.3 La Reculee .................................................................................. 235 5.1.3.1.4 South East Illizi Group ............................................................... 241 5.1.3.1.5 Stah ............................................................................................. 247 5.1.3.1.6 Tamadanet Group ....................................................................... 253 5.1.3.1.7 Tifernine Group .......................................................................... 259 5.1.3.1.8 Timedratine ................................................................................. 265 5.1.3.1.9 Zarzaitine .................................................................................... 271

5.1.3.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 277 5.1.3.2.1 Tin Zemane ................................................................................. 278

5.2 Gas Fields ........................................................................................................ 284 5.2.1 Grand Erg/Ahnet Basin ......................................................................... 285

5.2.1.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 286 5.2.1.1.1 In Salah Group ............................................................................ 287 5.2.1.1.2 Sbaa ............................................................................................ 293

Page 2 of 509

5.2.1.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 299 5.2.1.2.1 Ahnet Group ............................................................................... 300 5.2.1.2.2 Djebel Berga ............................................................................... 306 5.2.1.2.3 Garet El Gouefoul ....................................................................... 312 5.2.1.2.4 Hassi Ilatou ................................................................................. 318 5.2.1.2.5 Hassi M’Sari ............................................................................... 324 5.2.1.2.6 Hassi Sbaa ................................................................................... 330 5.2.1.2.7 Tit ................................................................................................ 336 5.2.1.2.8 Touat ........................................................................................... 342

5.2.2 Trias/Ghadames Basin ........................................................................... 348 5.2.2.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 349

5.2.2.1.1 Haoud El Hamra ......................................................................... 350 5.2.2.1.2 Hassi R’Mel ................................................................................ 356 5.2.2.1.3 Rhourde Nouss Group ................................................................ 362

5.2.2.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 368 5.2.2.2.1 Gassi Toual ................................................................................. 369 5.2.2.2.2 In Amadjene South ..................................................................... 375 5.2.2.2.3 Menzal Ledjmet East – Block 405b ........................................... 381

5.2.3 Illizi Basin ................................................................................................ 387 5.2.3.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 388

5.2.3.1.1 Alrar ............................................................................................ 389 5.2.3.1.2 In Amenas Group ........................................................................ 395 5.2.3.1.3 Ohanet Group ............................................................................. 401 5.2.3.1.4 Tin Fouye Tabankort .................................................................. 407

5.2.3.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 413 5.2.3.2.1 Alwafa ........................................................................................ 414 5.2.3.2.2 Ain Tsila ..................................................................................... 420 5.2.3.2.3 Issaouanne .................................................................................. 426 5.2.3.2.4 Timellouline South ..................................................................... 432

5.2.4 Reggane Basin ......................................................................................... 438 5.2.4.1 Producing Fields ................................................................................ 438 5.2.4.2 Non-Producing Fields ........................................................................ 439

5.2.4.2.1 Azrafil Group .............................................................................. 440 6 Appendices ............................................................................................................ 446

6.1 Appendix 1 – Algeria Mining Act, July 3, 2001 ............................................. 446 7 List of Tables .........................................................................................................

Page 3 of 509

Tab

le 1

.9: T

rias

/Gha

dam

es B

asin

Fie

lds S

umm

ary

(Mill

ion

$)

Oil

(MM

bbl)

Gas

(Bsc

f)

NPV

Mei

dum

Pr

ice&

Cos

tM

arke

t Val

ueM

ean

Cos

t Val

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ean

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Mei

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Pr

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Cos

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t Val

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ean

Cos

t Val

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ean

NPV

Mei

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Pr

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Cos

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t Val

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Cos

t Val

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NPV

Mei

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Pr

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Cos

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t Val

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ean

Cos

t Val

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ean

1H

assi

Mas

saou

d

-

-

-

--

-

-

-

-

-2

Our

houd

-

-

-

-

3H

assi

Ber

kine

Sou

th

-

-

-

-4

El M

er

5

Rho

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El B

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-

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-

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6R

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-

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-7

El M

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East

8El

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orth

9

Qou

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-

-

-

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10El

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a

11

Has

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erki

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outh

Eas

t

-

-

-

12H

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Ber

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-

-

-

13H

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Ber

kaou

i

--

-

-

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-

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-

-

14B

erki

ne N

orth

Eas

t

-

-

-

-

15B

ir R

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-

-

-

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Gas

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-

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-

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-17

Men

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18R

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Gro

up F

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-

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Gue

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20El

Agr

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-

--

-

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-21

El B

orn

--

-

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-

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--

-

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22Zo

tti

-

-

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--

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23H

assi

Ber

kine

Nor

th E

ast

24

Gas

si T

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Oil

-

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-

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-

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25

Rho

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El K

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-

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26R

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-

-

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Gas

si T

oual

Gas

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

30H

aoud

El H

amra

-

--

-

-

-

-

--

-

-

31M

enza

l Led

jmen

t Eas

t-Blo

ck 4

0-

-

-

-

-

-

-

32R

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re N

ouss

Gro

up-

--

-

-

-

-

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-

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33In

Am

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ne N

orth

-

-

-

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Geoff EyreText BoxOne of the Key Summary Tables from the Report which shows the total value of the fields in the Trias/Ghadames Basin broken down by Field, National Oil Company and Participating International Oil Companies - One for each basin considered in addition the value of each International Oil Companies total interests in Algeria is Assessed

Data Has Been Removed from this Sample Sheet

SUMMARYAlgeria Financial Report - SampleProject General Information

Field Name: SampleFiscal System: Royalty & Tax

Participants Share (%) Company NameState: 30.0% Sample

IOCs-Group included: 70.0% SampleIOC-1: 45.0% SampleIOC-2: 25.0% SampleIOC-3: 0.0% N/A

ReservesOil (MMbbl): 0.0

Gas (BBscf): 5,000.0BOE (Million bbl): 835.0

Project PeriodPeriod: 30

Start: 2011End: 2040

Total Costs (Million $)Cost Scenario: Low Medium High

Total Project Cost: 9,815.3 13,912.1 18,228.4

Capital Expenditures incl.: 2,980.0 4,102.0 5,223.9 - Exploration: 510.0 702.0 894.0

- Development: 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9Operation Expenditures: 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6

Abandonment: 180.8 248.9 316.9

Results Summary - (Million US$)

Project: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price

Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 3,545.2 9,972.0 16,398.8Min Mean Max

Market Value @ Medium Cost 418.5 558.1 697.6Cost Value @ Medium Cost 442.3 589.7 737.1

NOC: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price

Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 3,102.2 7,245.9 11,389.6Min Mean Max


IOC-1: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price

Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 284.7 1,752.5 3,220.2Min Mean Max


IOC-2: SampleLow Price Medium Price High Price

Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 158.2 973.6 1,789.0Min Mean Max


IOC-3: N/ALow Price Medium Price High Price

Net Present Value @ Medium Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0Min Mean Max


B a y p h a s e

Geologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts

Est.19

86

PRODUCTION PROFILE41 Field: Sample

Status: Non-producingField Type: Gas Field

Rec. Remaining Reserve OIL (Million Bbl): 0.0 Increasing Step (bbl/day): 0 Recoverable Remaining Reserve GAS (Billion scf): 5,000.0Average Declining Rate (%): 0.8% Increasing Step (Million scf/Day): 900.0 Average Declining Rate (%): ##########

Plateau Production Rate (%): Number of Phases: 1 Plateau Production Rate (%): 6.6%Plateau Production OIL (Barrels/day): Plateau Production BOE (Barrels/day): 150 Plateau Production GAS (Million scf/day):

Total Production OIL (Million Bbl): 5.0 Total Production BOE (Million Barrels): 838.3 Total Production GAS (Billion scf): 5,000.0Current Production OIL (Barrels/day): GOR: Current Production GAS (Million scf/Day):

Daily Production (Oil Barrels and Million SCF)2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

0 0 0 0 450 450 450 900 900 900 842 788 738 691 646 605 566 530 496 464 434 407 380 356 333 312 292 273 256 2390.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 450.0 450.0 450.0 900.0 900.0 900.0 842.3 788.3 737.8 690.5 646.3 604.9 566.1 529.8 495.9 464.1 434.3 406.5 380.5 356.1 333.3 311.9 291.9 273.2 255.7 239.30 0 0 0 75,450 75,450 75,450 150,900 150,900 150,900 141,229 132,178 123,707 115,779 108,359 101,415 94,915 88,833 83,140 77,811 72,825 68,158 63,790 59,701 55,875 52,294 48,943 45,806 42,871 40,123

#DIV/0!

0

0

0.0

900.0

#DIV/0!

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

BO

PD

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1,000.0

Mill

ion

SCFD

OilBOEGas

B a y p h a seGeologists, Engineers and Investment Analysts

Est.19

86

COST PROFILEProject: Algeria Financial Report

Field: Sample

Legend Key: Blue - Low Cost Scenario; Red - Medium Cost Scenario; Green - High Cost Scenario

B a y p h a se


Est. 19

86

Total Costs (Million USD)

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Mill

ion

US$

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

35000.0

40000.0

45000.0Exploration Costs (Million USD)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Mill

ion

US$

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

Development Costs (Million USD)

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Mill

ion

US$

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0Operation Costs (Million USD)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Mill

ion

US$

0.0

5000.0

10000.0

15000.0

20000.0

25000.0

30000.0

35000.0

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW

Cost Scenario: LOW

NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW 7,186.8 17.2% 5,214.0 39.7% 1,268.2 8.5% 704.6 8.5% 0.0 N/A

MEDIM 13,613.6 28.6% 9,357.7 66.5% 2,735.9 16.1% 1,520.0 16.1% 0.0 N/AHIGH 20,040.4 38.3% 13,501.3 94.9% 4,203.7 22.3% 2,335.4 22.3% 0.0 N/A

Total Average: 13,613.6 28.0% 9,357.7 67.0% 2,735.9 15.6% 1,520.0 15.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Cost Scenario: MEDIUM

NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW 3,545.2 7.1% 3,102.2 20.3% 284.7 1.5% 158.2 1.5% 0.0 N/A

MEDIM 9,972.0 17.0% 7,245.9 39.0% 1,752.5 8.4% 973.6 8.4% 0.0 N/AHIGH 16,398.8 25.4% 11,389.6 58.0% 3,220.2 14.0% 1,789.0 14.0% 0.0 N/A

Total Average: 9,972.0 16.5% 7,245.9 39.1% 1,752.5 8.0% 973.6 8.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Cost Scenario: HIGH

NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRR NPV IRRLOW -291.6 N/A 1,545.2 9.7% -1,180.8 N/A -656.0 N/A 0.0 N/A

MEDIM 6,135.2 9.0% 5,018.2 23.5% 718.1 2.9% 398.9 2.9% 0.0 N/AHIGH 12,562.0 16.5% 9,161.9 37.9% 2,185.8 8.1% 1,214.3 8.1% 0.0 N/A

Total Average: 9,348.6 12.8% 5,241.8 23.7% 1,451.9 5.5% 806.6 5.5% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Medium Price & Cost Scenario Graphic Presentations

Project Highlights Low Medium HighState 30.0% Sample Total Cost (Million US$): 9,634.5 13,663.2 17,911.5

IOC-1 45.0% Sample Exploration Cost (Million US$): 510.0 702.0 894.0IOC-2 25.0% Sample Development Cost (Million US$): 2,470.0 3,400.0 4,329.9IOC-3 0.0% N/A Operation Cost (Million US$): 6,654.5 9,561.2 12,687.6

Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Price Assumption Low Medium High Royalty (%): 12.5%-20.0%

Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Oil Price ($/bbl): 40.0 70.0 100.0 Annual Income Tax (%): 30%-70%BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Gas Price ($/1000Sm3): 125.0 175.0 225.0 Discount Factor Real (%): 12.5%

SUMMARY RESULTSAlgeria Financial Report

Project NOC IOC-1 IOC-2 IOC-3

IOC-3

Project NOC IOC-1Price Scenario

Price Scenario

IOC-2 IOC-3

Price ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1 IOC-2

B a y p h a s e


Est.19

86

Revenue & Costs

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

Mill

ion

USD

Gross Revenue

Total Cost

DCF

-800.0-600.0-400.0-200.0

0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0

1,000.01,200.0

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

Mill

ion

USD

ProjectNOCIOC-Group

Depreciation & CAPEX

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

Mill

ion

USD

CAPEXDepreciation

NPV9,972.0

7,245.9

1,752.5973.6

0.00.0

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

12,000.0


Mill

ion

USD

SampleMARKET APPROACH

MVAS: Pessimistic (25/50)

Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min MaxLOW 262.0 524.0 78.6 157.2 117.9 235.8 65.5 131.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIM 232.5 465.0 69.8 139.5 104.6 209.3 58.1 116.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 212.4 424.9 63.7 127.5 95.6 191.2 53.1 106.2 0.0 0.0

Total Average: 235.7 471.3 70.7 141.4 106.0 212.1 58.9 117.8 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

MVAS: Realistic (45/75)


MEDIM 418.5 697.6 125.6 209.3 188.3 313.9 104.6 174.4 0.0 0.0HIGH 382.4 637.3 114.7 191.2 172.1 286.8 95.6 159.3 0.0 0.0


MVAS: Optimistic (65/90)


MEDIM 604.6 837.1 181.4 251.1 272.1 376.7 151.1 209.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 552.3 764.7 165.7 229.4 248.5 344.1 138.1 191.2 0.0


Realisitic Market Value Adjustment & Medium Cost Scenario Value Diagram



Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Producing Base Price (US$/BOE): 5.3

Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Non-Producing Base Price (US$/BOE): 1.2BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Field Factor: 1.20

IOC-2 IOC-3

Cost ScenarioProject

Cost ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1

NOC IOC-1


IOC-2 IOC-3

IOC-2 IOC-3Cost Scenario

Project NOC IOC-1

B a y p h a se


Est.19

86

418.5

697.6

125.6

209.3 188.3

313.9

104.6174.4

0.0 0.00.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max


Mill

ion

USD

SampleCOST APPROACH

MVAS: Pessimistic (25/50)


MEDIM 245.7 491.4 73.7 147.4 110.6 221.1 61.4 122.9 0.0 0.0HIGH 335.3 670.5 100.6 201.2 150.9 301.7 83.8 167.6 0.0 0.0


MVAS: Realistic (45/75)


MEDIM 442.3 737.1 132.7 221.1 199.0 331.7 110.6 184.3 0.0 0.0HIGH 603.5 1,005.8 181.0 301.7 271.6 452.6 150.9 251.4 0.0 0.0


MVAS: Optimistic (65/90)


MEDIM 638.8 884.5 191.7 265.4 287.5 398.0 159.7 221.1 0.0 0.0HIGH 871.7 1,206.9 261.5 362.1 392.3 543.1 217.9 301.7 0.0


Realisitic Market Value Adjustment & Medium Cost Scenario Value Diagram



Economic HighlightsOil (Million bbl): 0.0 Total Exploration Low Cost Scenario (Million $): 510.00

Gas (Billion scf): 5,000.0 Total Exploration Medium Cost Scenario (Million $): 702.02BOE (Million bbl): 835.0 Total Exploration High Cost Scenario (Million $): 894.03

IOC-2 IOC-3Cost Scenario

Project NOC IOC-1


IOC-2 IOC-3

IOC-2 IOC-3

Cost ScenarioProject

Cost ScenarioProject NOC IOC-1

NOC IOC-1

B a y p h a s e


Est.19

86

442.3

737.1

132.7

221.1 199.0

331.7

110.6

184.3

0.0 0.00.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max


Mill

ion

USD

Bayp

hase

Limite

dAddress: St George’s House

Knoll Road Camberley SurreyGU15 3SY

Telephone: +44 (0) 1276 682828

Fax: +44 (0) 1276 63334

Web: www.bayphase.com

Bayphase


Est.1986

Summary, Rev1, 29 December 2009.pdfAlgeria Financial Report Booklet - Unprotected, Rev 0, 11 January 2010.pdfAlgeria Financial Report Booklet - Unprotected, Rev 0, 11 January 2010.pdfAlgeria Strategic Report Booklet, Rev 2, 25 June 2008.pdfFront.pdfSample.pdfBACK.pdf

Key.pdf

Sample, Rev1, 29 December 2009.pdf

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