Alexander SerguninSt. Petersburg State University

E-mail: sergunin60@mail.ru

Euroacademy Tallinn

December 13, 2013

The 21st century is an age of information revolution; Bio-technologies; Nanotechnologies; post-industrial age

In geographical terms, it is an age of The Asia-Pacific BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S. Africa) More recently – the Arctic

To discuss the future role of the Arctic for the humankind

To identify the drivers of instability in the region as well as the potential incentives for cooperation between the regional players

Oil and gas: 90 million barrels of oil, 47.3 trillion cubic meters of gas and 44 billion barrels of gas condensate. In other words, this is nearly 25% of the world’s hydrocarbon unproven reserves. Over 60% of the Arctic oil and gas reserves are in the territories that Russia owns or claims.

Coal: potential coal reserves in Russia’s Arctic region accounting for nearly half of the country’s coal resources equal 780 bln tons with 81 bln tons of this figure - coking coals.

Rare and rare-earth metals and minerals in Russia’s Arctic Zone (RAZ): over half of Russia’s apatite concentrate reserves (over 90%

reserves are located in the Kola Peninsula, the Taimyr Peninsula, Yakutia and Chukotka);

nickel and cobalt (85% reserves – Norilsk; the rest – the Kola Peninsula);

copper (about 60% reserves are in Norilsk and the Kola Peninsula); platinum group elements (over 98% - in Norilsk and the Kola

Peninsula); tin (over 75% proven reserves and 50% predicted); mercury (with the main proven reserves in Chukotka and big

deposits in Taimyr); gold and silver (90%); diamonds (over 99% of proven resources - Yakutia, the Archangelsk

Region and Taimyr).

Unique animals: the polar bear, the polar fox, the narwhal, the killer whale, the walrus and the white whale.

Fish: over 150 fish species live in the Arctic and sub-Arctic waters, including the most important ones for fisheries - the cod, the herring, the haddock and the flounder. The RAZ fisheries account for nearly 15% of the fish catch and sea food production in Russia. The Bering Sea (sub-Arctic area): 50% of the U.S. fish catch.

The route between Hamburg and Yokohama through the Suez Canal (18,350 kilometers) would be reduced to 11,100 kilometers by using the NSR, which in theory reduces the sailing time from 22 to 15 days; in other words, a 40% reduction.

The route between Rotterdam and Shanghai would be reduced from 22,200 kilometers (via the Cape of Good Hope) to 14,000 using the NSR.

The volatile situation in the Middle East, especially since the “Arab spring” of 2011, the overburdening of the Suez Canal, rising tensions in the Hormuz Strait and, more importantly, growing piracy in the Horn of Africa, all encourage the development of new alternatives.

Transit from Russia to the North American continent would also be made shorter by crossing the Arctic. Murmansk is only 9,600 kilometers from Vancouver via the Bering Strait, but is 16,000 kilometers via the Panama Canal.

Similar savings are gained when navigating the North-Western Passage along the northern coast of North America instead of the southern trek via the Panama Canal.

On the one hand, the GCC, specifically the global warming causing the Arctic ice thaw, makes the natural resources and transport communications more accessible for operation. The emergence of the Arctic tourism.

On the other hand, there are numerous negative implications of the GCC: radical changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic eco- and bio-systems that affect fisheries and indigenous peoples’ economies; global weather change; growing competition for natural resources and sea routes.

Bad news: The Arctic ice area has contracted by 8% since 1978 while the temperature of the permafrost upper layer went up by 3°. If the warming trend continues, scholars expect that, by 2099, the temperature will go up by 6.4°, the sea level will rise by 0.59 cm and the ocean will be completely ice-free in summer.

The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg): the ‘instability point’ in the high Arctic latitudes climate rather than a stable global warming trend. There was a cooling trend in the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice cover in 2008 and 2013.

The cycle theory: Ice growth was observed in 1900-1919 and 1938-1968 with its shrinkage in 1918-1938 and since 1968 till today.

However, the cycle hypothesis does not contradict the theory that the current climate changes are caused by man. According to IPCC data, the existence of cycles is undeniable, but they have been superimposed over the last 10- 20 years by short-term increases of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.

The Arctic oil and gas deposits are overestimated. Development and exploitation of these resources

will remain costly in the foreseeable future. The Western and Russian energy companies are

not ready to invest to risky Arctic projects. They prefer less risky and more profitable options.

No safe technologies for off-shore drilling for the moment.

No safe means for oil and liquid gas transportation by sea routes.

‘Shale gas revolution’ in the U.S.

The disappearance of the ice-cap during the summer does not mean that the Arctic Ocean will become totally ice-free. Ice can quickly form in very different locations and can take ships by surprise and reduce the predictability of the journey. There will still be icebergs; and the danger of collision will be considerable.

Travelling in extreme climate is difficult in technical terms because it requires ice-class vessels, including ice-breaking capacities.

In case of the NSR, there are numerous administrative-technical barriers to be taken into account such as the Russian demands that foreign ships pay fees for chartering icebreakers, obtaining weather and ice reports, and hiring Russian pilots to guide vessels in the straits. These expenses are considered too costly by the main international shipping companies.

The insurance tends to be very expensive because the international insurance companies have to take into account the NSR and NWP’s unpredictability in terms of time and conditions of cargo shipments.

Presently, the NSR has a limited operational rescue system – only three rescue centers in Dikson, Tiksi and Pevek. The number of ports that are able to host ships in need of repairs is insufficient, while the risks of collision are considerable because of the unpredictable ice conditions and because the lanes of direction are not clearly defined. The Russian government plans to build 10 search and rescue centers along the Russian Arctic coastline but the question whether these plans would come true or not and whether these centers would be sufficient to develop the NSR up to the level of international safety standards remains open to discussion.

In 2013 the NSR Administration got 701 applications, 620 were approved and 81 were declined. The NSR Administration’s prognoses: the freight traffic through the NSR will exceed one million tons in 2013.

The hopes that the volume of freight traffic will reach 35–40 million tons per year by 2020 are unrealistic.

Russian is an expansionist/revisionist country that aims at establishing its control over the Arctic natural resources (e.g., Chilingarov’s flag planting in 2007; Moscow’s claims on the Lomonosov and Mendeleev ridges, etc.)

Russia is a militarist power: resumption of air and maritime space patrolling in the Arctic and North Atlantic; modernization of the Northern Fleet (both its conventional and nuclear components); creation of a special Arctic task force; border guard build-up and strengthening border controls around the Arctic Ocean’s coastline

Russia is an emerging world ‘energy hegemon’ because of the Arctic natural resources

Russia is a ‘colossus with feet of clay’ because the Arctic oil and gas deposits are overestimated + the U.S. ‘shale gas revolution’

In 2009, the Russian government granted a contract to Tupolev company to develop a new stealth bomber the PAK-DA that would replace the Tu-22M, the Tu-160 and the Tu-95MS. The prototype is scheduled to fly in 2020 and the aircraft is expected to enter service only in 2025–30.

Plans to upgrade three heavy nuclear-powered missile cruisers, the Admiral Lazarev, the Admiral Nakhimov, and the Admiral Ushakov.

The purchase of two Mistrals helicopter carriers from France is delayed.

Plans to build eight Admiral Gorshkov class and six Krivak class frigates.

The Delta IV submarines will be provided with a new sonar system and the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Sineva (Skiff SSN-23).

The Typhoon-class strategic submarines will be re-equipped with long-range cruise missiles and the Bulava system, a new generation solid-fuel SLBM, designed to avoid possible future U.S. anti-ballistic missile defense weapons, and which can cover a distance of more than 9,000 kilometers. For the time-being, only one Typhoon-class strategic submarine, the Dmitri Donskoy, has been modernized and deployed to the Northern Fleet.

The Typhoon-class submarines should be replaced with the new Borey-class fourth generation strategic submarines. 8 submarines will be built: 4 for the Northern Fleet and 4 for the Pacific Fleet. The Yuri Dolgoruky - has been in operation by the Northern Fleet since January 2013. Two others are under the sea trials.

The "Aleksandr Nevsky" Borey-class nuclear missile submarine sailing out from

the Sevmash yard into the White Sea. (Photo: Sevmash)

To provide the logistical and administrative support to the Northern Fleet a new Arctic Center for Material and Technical Support with a staff of more than 15,000 was created in 2012.

The 200th independent motorized infantry brigade (Pechenga) will be operational in 2016.

Moscow plans to build 20 border guard stations along the Arctic Ocean’s coastline.

10 SAR centers will be created by 2016.

No military build-up in the Arctic. There are modernization programs and the efforts to increase the coastal states’ control over the vast Northern territories to prevent non-traditional security challenges.

The military force has changed its meaning in the Arctic context. Now it does not serve the global East-West confrontation; rather, it aims at protection of the economic interests of the regional players.

It is easier to solve the existing problems through negotiations than by means of war.

Value-based approach (neo-liberalism): the Arctic (its natural resources and sea routes) is a common humankind’s heritage/asset; UNCLOS regime; regional organizations such as the Arctic Council and Barents-Euro-Arctic Council is a part of the global governance system; the AC’s and BEAC’s main priorities should be environment protection and the ‘human dimension’. A future Arctic comprehensive treaty (similar to the Antarctic Treaty)?

Interest-based approach (geopolitics and neo-realism): The coastal states view the Arctic as a ‘strategic resource base’; their national interests in the region should be secured; each UNCLOS, AC and BEAC member-state uses these institutions to protect/promote its national interests in the region.

Mixture (combination) of two approaches: for example, Russia’s Arctic Strategies of 2008 and 2013, Norwegian and Canadian High North strategies.

Securitized approach: each Arctic problem is seen from the national security point of view - from ecological problems and fisheries to territorial disputes and sea routes (e.g. the Russian Arctic strategy-2013)

De-securitized (technocratic/instrumentalist) approach: most of the Arctic problems can be solved beyond the security context, in a ‘normal way’.

Russia

Canada

China

Denmark

U.S.

environmental protection and monitoring; large-scale studies of the Arctic climate

change, the status of Arctic wild animals and plants, social, economic and demographic trends in the Far North;

preservation of the unique way of life and culture of the people of the North;

search and rescue operations; combating oil spills and other man-made

disasters, etc.

On the one hand, numerous conflicts driven both by natural and anthropogenic factors, are looming ahead.

On the other hand, the Arctic is a rapidly developing region fraught not only with problems but offering a variety of opportunities. It is a kind of testing ground which, contingent on reasonable and prudent use, could enable to design new models and mechanisms of international cooperation.

Thank you!