ALARO in Romania
description
Transcript of ALARO in Romania
ALARO in Romania
Doina Banciu, Otilia DiaconuRomanian Meteorological Administration
∆x=6.5 km240 x 240 points49 vertical levelsLinear gridLambert projection2TL-SL ∆t=240s
ALARO ROMANIA
CY35T1
operational since 10 February 2010
1.09. 2011: bugfix of February 2011 - SLHD not touched Not specific tuning for cloudiness and convection
CY36T1
CY37T1
Hydrostatic mode No data asimilation No SURFEX
implemented (including bugfix of February 2011; in test
under implementation
ALARO VERIFICATION
Statistical scores: T2m, V10m, MSLP
- annual average for 2011 - average for 5 months 2012 - comparison with ALADIN, the back up solution - bias maps
Precipitation: subjective evaluation Observations 160 surface synop stations 1000 precipitation measuremnt stations
2m Temperature
Bias• cold seazon : negative, espeacilly during night (+ 24, +48 h) ALARO is better than ALADIN ; exception February 2012 • warm seazon: positive ALARO is better than ALADIN during day (+36); ALADIN is better during night
2011 2012
RMSE: • a bit smaller values during the warm season almost anytime ALARO is better than ALADIN but very small diferences
+ 24
+ 36
+ 48
23 May 2012
2Tm bias
6h precipitation
00+24
00+36
30→36 h
18→24 h
10m Wind speed2011 2012
• Bias: generaly negative during night and cold season• Small differences between ALARO and ALDIN
+24
+36
+48
23 May 2012
00+24
00+36
10m wind speed bias
2011 2012
MSLP
• Generally negative bias• ALARO has better bias and rmse then ALADIN• Singular behaviour : April !!!
+24
+36
+48
25 May 2012
24 May 2012
Mean sea level pressure bias
00+24
Precipitation
Forecasters feedback: good ALARO behaviour, better than ALADIN ALARO is very good warning situation, being considered the most reliable
However there are still problems:
- the diurnal cycle - the displacement speed of the mezoscale convective systems - maximum value of the heavy precipitation - the are of light preciptitation too spead
May 11 May 12 May 13
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
May 14 May 15 May 16
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
May 17 May 18 May 19
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
!
May 21 May 22 May 23
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
May 24 May 25 May 26
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
!
May 27 May 28 May 29
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
! !!
May 30 May 31 June 1
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
June 2 June 3 June 4
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
!
June 5 June 6 June 7
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012
!
June 8 June 9 June 10
Observations
ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation
2012 !! !