Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-118-Caliphate-vs-Regular Armies-8-Iran-6

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence.

The Battle reliability of standing and moderate forces opposing irregulars

March 1, Iraq launches offensive to take back Tikrit from ISIL, and than Mosul, and Anbar the critical part next in the Mission: but Who Will Evict ISIL?

Moreover who will get the most out of it?

Prince Turki. " [IS], or Fahesh 1 as I prefer to call it,

Are we allowing the Iranian Spirit out of the Bottle? Do we think to get it back-in?Ever noted the saying The Shia Cresent? Liberators or invaders?

Saudi Arabia fears that the Huthis, who swept down from the north and expanded the area they control to the shores of the Red Sea, now have their sights set on the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait.

• This would give Iran proxy control over the key waterway to and from the Suez Canal, adding to its already strong presence in the Gulf's Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world's oil passes.

• Mohammad Sadeh Sadqian, head of the Centre for Arab Studies in Tehran, warned that the Saudi-Iran struggle for influence, already clear in Iraq and Syria, could have consequences elsewhere. The struggle "could engulf other countries" if Riyadh and Tehran "do not sit around one table and discuss openly all points of dispute," he said.

"Iran is already a disruptive player in various scenes in the Arab world, whether it's Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, or Bahrain," said Prince Turki. "So ending fear of developing weapons of mass destruction is not going to be the end of the troubles we're having with Iran." Of most concern to Saudi Arabia is Iran's backing of Iraqi Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State (IS) militants.

What if there's no Iran deal? 2 By Stephen Collinson, CNN Updated 1341 GMT (2141 HKT) March 16, 2015 Washington (CNN)No deal is better than a bad deal, say critics of President Barack Obama's nuclear talks with Iran. But what if Republican and Democratic opponents succeed in their intensifying effort to derail the diplomacy? The price of failure could be an ugly blame game and cascade of political reprisals leading to nuclear chicken between Iran and the West -- potentially leading to war. "We would have to deal with a resumption of Iran's nuclear activities, which we don't want to see take place. Iran would have to deal with the resumption of sanctions, which they don't want," said Gary Samore, a top nonproliferation official during Obama's first term. For now, the grave consequences of a breakdown in talks are one reason the United States and Iran are still at the table, as a grueling diplomatic process reaches critical deadlines and painful political decisions beckon.

C: Allow me to Think Outside the Box: Aside the current Global, and many national politics; Do we see what is happening here under our nose, beside that it is very interesting to read the identified - expending - threats by Iran: “to key waterway to and from the Suez Canal, Gulf's Strait of Hormuz, and strategic Bab al-Mandab strait”. In the event of the Iran-US nuclear deal falling apart or they do not get what they want, Iran has positioned itself to

1 The name is of the meaning excessive.2 http://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/16/politics/iran-talks-nuclear-deal/

direct influence – control around 3 out of 5 of the Worlds most critical Global Economic Sea passages. Moreover in their latest naval exercise they have shown their military Naval might and intent: sink a US dummy aircraft carrier 3 in the strait of Hormuz an event not unthinkable to happen in one of the other passages. The fact that Iran struck the faux carrier with a barrage of anti-ship missiles, then swarmed it with small boats and then landed commandos on it, has to result in an unnerving mental picture for American and allied ships' crews prowling the Gulf. The IRGC navy chief, Adm. Ali Fadavi, discussed the exercise on state-ran TV, stating: American aircraft carriers are very big ammunition depots housing a lot of missiles, rockets, torpedoes and everything else. A direct hit by a missile could set off a large secondary explosion... We have the most advanced sea mines which cannot be imagined by the Americans. Additionally as previous addressed: At a rally last month on the occasion of the 36th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani gloated: “We are witnessing the export of the Islamic Revolution throughout the region. From Bahrain and Iraq to Syria, Yemen and North Africa.”

What is of further interest we need to remember what AQ strategic thinker Abu-Mus‘ab al-Suri, ‘Umar ‘Abd al-Hakim had to say regarding the importance of the passages: “There are (5) important naval straits in the globe in his Dec 2004 published manifesto; The Call for Global Islamic Resistance. Page 1384] Naval straits and main water crossings: 1. The strait of Hormuz, the oil gate of Arabian Gulf – Persian, 2. The Suez Canal in Egypt, 3. Bab al-Mandeb between Yemen and the horn of Africa and, 4. Gibraltar Straits in al-Maghrib al-Aqsa [Europe- Morocco] (The other is the Panama canal)

Additionally and this may be far outside the box; with a Iranian General running the show in northern Iraq with around some 20.000 plus militia men on his side it is only a small step to the county they want to wipe of the map”: Israel. Gen Commander of the Iran Army: It Will Take Us 11 Days "to Wipe Israel Out of Existence" It is certain that the influence of the Iran on conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere is not to be underestimated. With Iran now using its military industry to exert influence in a host of Middle Eastern nations ranging from Iraq, Syria and Yemen to even Libya, its intentions of expanding its sphere of influence become ever more clear, and it’s certain Iran is not to be underestimated when devising policies on the Middle East.

Over a decade ago there was mentioning that Iran could move trough northern Iraq and Syria, Lebanon…and from there move south to wipe off… Today they are regional positioning already and could hold us economically by the throat very soon. Ultimately we will be forced in a reactive mode to do things that we could and should have stopped. Finally where we came up in arms – or at least threatened with it, when Russia made his move into the Ukraine, in the Middle East we allow this scenario to happen and approve it.

March 16, Pakistan declines to join Saudi Arabia's anti-Iran alliance. Saudi Arabia's campaign to build a broad Sunni alliance to contain Iran has apparently suffered at least a setback from Pakistan. Islamabad has opted, at least for now, to avoid becoming entangled in the sectarian cold war between Riyadh and Tehran. Earlier this month, Pakistani Prime

3 http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/iran-blows-up-gigantic-u-s-carrier-mock-up-during-nava-1688057598

Minister Nawaz Sharif was invited to the kingdom for urgent talks with King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and his advisers. The king met Sharif at the airport to underscore the importance of the talks. The main topic was Iranian aggression in the Arab world and the impending deadline for the P5+1 negotiations on Iran's nuclear project. The king wanted firm assurances from Sharif that Pakistan would align itself with Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies against Iran, especially in the proxy war now underway in Yemen. Salman specifically wanted a Pakistani military contingent to deploy to the kingdom to help defend the vulnerable southwest border with Zaydi Houthi-controlled north Yemen and serve as a trip-wire force to deter Iranian aggression. There is precedent for a Pakistani army expeditionary force in Saudi Arabia. After the Iranian Revolution, Pakistani dictator Mohammad Zia ul-Haq deployed an elite Pakistani armored brigade to the kingdom at King Fahd's request to deter any threats to the country. In all, some 40,000 Pakistanis served in the brigade over most of a decade. Today only some Pakistani advisers and experts serve in the kingdom. According to Pakistani sources, Sharif has reluctantly decided not to send troops to Saudi Arabia for now. Sharif promised closer counterterrorism and military cooperation but no troops for the immediate future. Pakistan also declined to move its embassy in Yemen from Sanaa to Aden as the Saudis and the Gulf Cooperation Council states have done to distance themselves from the Houthis.The Pakistanis are arguing their military is already overstretched facing the traditional enemy, India, and the increasing threat from the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan has its own serious sectarian tensions and violence. About 20% of Pakistanis are Shiite and sectarian violence has been intensifying in recent years. Groups linked to al-Qaeda such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have targeted Shiite mosques and schools for suicide bombings. Iran also has proxies in Pakistan that have attacked Sunni targets in the past. Faced with these difficulties at home, Sharif is telling Salman not now for troops. Sharif is by nature a cautious man and a very deliberate decision-maker. He is carefully leaving open the option of deploying troops to the kingdom in the future if the security situation gets worse. He will also be clear with the king that Pakistan remains a close Saudi ally. The ambiguous and mysterious Pakistani nuclear connection with Saudi Arabia will remain in the background.The king has doubled down on his Egyptian connection this month. Crown Prince Muqrin pledged $4 billion in investment in Egypt at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference this week, and Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each pledged the same. But Egypt, too, is reluctant to send troops, especially for operations around Yemen. Egyptians still have bitter memories of their disastrous intervention in Yemen in the 1960s. Ironically, the Egyptians then were fighting Saudi-backed Zaydi royalists. So for now Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the king's son, will have to plan on dealing with Houthi threats on the border alone with Saudi troops. They have not fared well in past clashes with the Houthis.

Torn Yemen bleeds in Saudi-Iran proxy war: analysts

Author: AFP Posted March 16, 2015 Torn between a north controlled by Shiite rebels and a south dominated by the embattled president's allies, Yemen is mired in a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, analysts say. The struggle threatens to push the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state further towards the abyss as the Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide grows wider.Amid the chaos, Al-Qaeda militants are closing ranks with tribes of fellow Sunni Muslims to counter the expansion of the Shiite Huthi rebels. In an unprecedented show of force, the Iran-backed Huthis, who overran the capital Sanaa unopposed in September, last week staged military exercises near the border with Sunni-heavyweight Saudi Arabia. "In the face of Iran's

Shiite expansionism, Sunni solidarity is building, led by Saudi Arabia," one diplomat who requested anonymity told AFP. Tehran warning When Hadi fled Huthi-imposed house arrest in Sanaa in February and resurfaced in Aden, Saudi Arabia was the first country to transfer its embassy there, in an open display of support for the beleaguered leader. Tehran has openly denounced moves to make the southern port Yemen's temporary capital. Sanaa is the official and historical capital of Yemen and those in Aden who back disintegration or civil war are responsible for the consequences," Iran's deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said last week.He charged that Hadi, who once he reached Aden retracted a resignation tendered under duress in Sanaa, "would have done better to stay in Sanaa and keep to his resignation letter and not lead the country into crisis".April Longley Alley, Yemen specialist at the International Crisis Group, argues that Tehran has received a "huge political return for very little investment". "As Saudi Arabia hardens its stance against the Huthis and seeks to roll back their gains, the Huthis are likely to seek closer ties with countries like Iran," she said. This Tehran-Riyadh struggle is "both complicating and amplifying conflict in Yemen," she said. Saudi Arabia fears that the Huthis, who swept down from the north and expanded the area they control to the shores of the Red Sea, now have their sights set on the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait.This would give Iran proxy control over the key waterway to and from the Suez Canal, adding to its already strong presence in the Gulf's Strait of Hormuz through which much of the world's oil passes. Saudi switch Fearing the rise of extremist Sunni Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, Riyadh stopped backing Yemen's Al-Islah (Reform) party, thus giving the Huthis the upper hand, according to Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Midd le East Centre. "At one point Saudi Arabia favoured a Huthi domination (along the border) instead of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its role in Yemen then diminished, encouraging the Huthis to advance" south and seize large amounts of territory within weeks, she said.The Huthi-run Saba news agency reported on Thursday that Iran will provide Yemen with crude oil for one year, and also establish a 165-megawatt power plant. The agreement was made during a Huthi visit to the Islamic republic after an Iranian commercial flight landed in Sanaa on March 1 -- the first in many years and the fruit of an aviation accord with Tehran.The Huthis insist that Iran does not meddle in Yemeni affairs. "We've said it clearly: we reject all interference in our internal affairs, whether from Saudi Arabia, Iran or the United States," Huthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam told AFP. He accused Saudi Arabia of seeking to "create chaos" in Yemen. "The risk of civil war or partition in Yemen" is increasingly raised in political circles, Khatib said.Mohammad Sadeh Sadqian, head of the Centre for Arab Studies in Tehran, warned that the Saudi-Iran struggle for influence, already clear in Iraq and Syria, could have consequences elsewhere. The struggle "could engulf other countries" if Riyadh and Tehran "do not sit around one table and discuss openly all points of dispute," he said.

Regards Cees