Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 12-17-Russia-Ukraine

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence “The Nafir to Crimea has started and Turkey is the starting point.”

C: While the West and Russia are wrangling and rattling weaponry in what could end up in an Economic/Financial or real World War III, Daesh and AQSL voiced intent - to regain their Dar al-Islam; with the Crimean Tartars1 (part of Dar al-Islam for 296 years) in the heart of Europe, is overheard in the heated debates and pointing fingers; Crimea was a Tatar Khanate, and a tributary to the Ottoman Empire for 296 years, between 1478 and 1774.. --- Let me recall: threat’s are not only in the written texts, lately we learned that the backgrounds songs in propaganda video’s are equal important: The execution video of Jordanian pilot was accompanied with the song which released from the Media Office of ISIS, serves as intimidation and threat to all who participated in international alliance, the song has started by describing the conflict as a terrible, and that the battles with these countries, will be in their own home, in different ways including slaughter and blasting on the hands of its fighters. And in the video of The execution of 21 Egyptian Christians; "We will conquer Rome, God willing 2." The video, titled "A Message Signed With Blood to the Nation of the Cross," claims to target the "hostile Egyptian church" to avenge "Muslim women persecuted by Coptic crusaders in Egypt." The video was allegedly shot in Libya on "the coast of Wilayat Tarabulus by the Mediterranean Sea." In the footage, a masked militant addresses the camera, claiming that the when the blood of the Christians enters the sea it will be mixed with the blood of Osama Bin Laden. At the end, the camera pans out to show blood in the water. The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome,” whose defeat at Dabiq – Aleppo - , Syria, will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse. Musa Cerantonio, an Australian preacher makes a case that Rome meant the Eastern Roman empire, which had its capital in what is now Istanbul. We should think of Rome as the Republic of Turkey—the same republic that ended the last self-identified caliphate, 90 years ago. Other Islamic State sources suggest that Rome might mean any infidel army, and the Americans will do nicely. The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome,” whose defeat at Dabiq – current day Allepo --- C:

"Instead of uniting forces to fight evil, the worst of which is terrorism, Western nations are drawing new divisive lines, trying to realize containment schemes against unwelcome states. Today, Russia has been chosen as the target." --- the Russian deputy defense minister Anatoly Antonov.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has said a "military threat from the east" will remain even if a ceasefire holds between government troops and pro-Russian rebels in the east. Mr Poroshenko's warning is widely seen as an indirect reference to Russia.

NATO member-states unwilling or unable to help boost the military spending are being accused of ignoring the “Russian threat,” that has re-emerged as the core of the alliance’s agenda to boost arms sales. A report saying one of major NATO funding contributors, the

1 Crimea was part of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union, but in fact, Crimea has been part of the Ottoman empire for significantly longer. Crimea was a Tatar Khanate, and a tributary to the Ottoman Empire for 296 years, between 1478 and 1774. After annexing the Ukrainian region of Crimea, Russian President Putin told the Russian parliament and assembled Crimean dignitaries that “Crimea has always been part of Russia.” It hasn’t. It was for 206 years. But has spent longer in the hands of the Ottoman Empire.2 https://news.vice.com/article/islamic-state-threatens-to-conquer-rome-in-gruesome-video-that-shows-21-beheadings

UK, could fail to fulfil the commitment to spend 2 percent of its GDP on the alliance in 2015 came as a bombshell for some of the West’s military elite 3.

March 10, 2015 WASHINGTON--The United States says Russia has transferred more weapons to separatists in recent days despite an ongoing cease-fire. "We can confirm new transfers of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery, and rocket equipment over the border to the separatists in eastern Ukraine," said Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland at a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on March 10.Moscow has continually denied sending weapons and troops to the pro-Russian separatists.Nuland said that Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed a year ago, and parts of eastern Ukraine are living under a "reign of terror." "Today Crimea remains under illegal occupation and human rights abuses are the norm, not the exception, for many at risk groups there," said Nuland.

March 10, Hundreds of US military vehicles have arrived in the Baltic states and are to stay in Europe, in a mission to reassure Nato allies unsettled by Russia's actions in Ukraine. The shipment coincides with the deployment of a US infantry division and Nato navy drills in the Black Sea. Although a ceasefire is in place in Ukraine, the conflict has heightened distrust between Russia and the West. A US military official told the BBC that some 250 heavy vehicles, out of a total of 750 vehicles, were arriving in the Latvian capital, Riga, and in northern Germany, and would be "pre-positioned for deployment so we can more quickly react to crises". The hardware would be based in the Baltics and Poland for the 90-day Nato training exercise, but would then be spread throughout Europe in "controlled storage (C: let me recall History -4.-)

On the one hand, Russian policies have so infuriated the Crimean Tatars that some of them are now listening to Islamist radicals, allowing Moscow to claim that they are becoming an advance guard for the Islamic State or the Taliban—thus providing yet another argument for those who oppose challenging Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory.

And on the other, because Crimean Tatars are likely more upset with Moscow now than they were a year ago, immediately after the peninsula’s annexation, both the Russian occupation authorities and the Russian central government see ever less reason to provide the Crimean Tatars with the help they promised. Such half-hearted support by Moscow will not make Crimean Tatars any more pro-Russian, but it will allow the Russian government to claim that it tried and that any remaining problems are, in fact, the fault of the Crimean Tatars themselves (Ukraina.ru, March 2).

Russian Occupation Crackdown Against Crimean Tatars Intensifies March 10, 2015 -- Volume 12, Issue 44 Now that Vladimir Putin has admitted that he seized Crimea by force rather than annexed it to Russia following the free expression of the will of its 3 http://rt.com/news/236701-nato-baltic-boost-spending/4 The Tehran Conference was a strategy meeting held between Joseph Stalin, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill from 28 November to 1 December 1943 held in the Soviet Embassy in Tehran, Iran and was the first of the World War II conferences between all of the "Big Three" Allied leaders. Churchill and Roosevelt also consented to the USSR setting up puppet communist governments in Poland, Czechoslovakia, the Baltic states, Romania, and other Eastern European countries which would result in the genesis of the Cold War. Source: Boundless. “The Tehran Meeting.” Boundless U.S. History. Boundless, 14 Nov. 2014. Retrieved 11 Mar. 2015 from https://www.boundless.com/u-s-history/textbooks/boundless-u-s-history-textbook/from-isolation-to-world-war-ii-1930-1943-26/the-war-in-germany-207/the-tehran-meeting-1142-9243/

population (Euromaidan Press, March 10), it is possible that more people will focus not only on that violation of international law but also on the way in which the Russian occupation authorities are behaving both generally and toward the Crimean Tatars. The indigenous population of Crimea, the Crimean Tatars have been the most consistent opponents of Moscow’s annexation of that Ukrainian peninsula. These attacks on the Crimean Tatars are taking several forms: continued attacks on any leader or organization that speaks out in defense of the Crimean Tatar nation, the creation of alternative pocket Crimean Tatar organizations that Moscow can suggest speak for that nation, as well as illegal actions by officials and their allies among the ethnic-Russian community against individual Crimean Tatars in an effort to intimidate and spread terror throughout that group. And what is especially worrisome—because it may further suppress the outward flow of information about the current situation—is pressure on Crimean Tatar media outlets and, most recently, on human rights groups there. The attacks on the leaders of the Crimean Tatars have continued, even though Mustafa Cemilev, the longtime leader of the nation, and Refat Chubarov, his successor as head of the Mejlis (the Crimean Tatars’ representative body), have been banned by the Russian authorities for five years and have had to work with their community via Skype and emails. On Sunday (March 8), Remzi Ilyasov, the deputy speaker of the pro-Moscow Crimean State Council and one of the few Crimean Tatars actively cooperating with the authorities, attacked both men, accusing them of “authoritarian” behavior and saying that they no longer had any right to be leaders of the community (Krymr.com, March 8). These attacks are part of a concerted campaign to discredit the Mejlis, which has led the Crimean Tatars even before they were able to return to their homeland from their exile in Central Asia. In addition, the campaign seeks to discredit the Qurultay (Crimean Tatar National Congress), which chooses the Mejlis. Masked Russian officials have raided the Mejlis headquarters, and rarely a week goes by without one or another of its members being abused in the media or physically. All this is intended to lay the groundwork either for a wholesale reconstitution of the membership and leadership of these two national institutions or for their replacement by an alternative and pro-Moscow institution like Kyyrem which already insists that it is the only body with the right to speak for the Crimean Tatars. That Moscow has had to proceed relatively slowly on this front reflects both the continuing support Cemilev and Chubarov have, not only among Crimean Tatars but internationally, as well as the opposition of ordinary Crimean Tatars to this Russian sleight of hand. Over the past year, Russian authorities have made numerous promises to the Crimean Tatar community but have not lived up to any of them either because they lack the funding to do so or because they may have concluded that any spending in that direction would be throwing good money after bad. Thus, not having many carrots to encourage ordinary Crimean Tatars to change their mind about the occupation of Crimea, the occupiers have decided to try sticks instead. They have raided the homes and businesses of Crimean Tatars, they have challenged Crimean Tatar property rights in some areas, and they have “disappeared” and likely killed a mounting list of Crimean Tatars (see EDM, March 21, 2014; April 28, 2014; May 9, 2014; September 23, 2014). This repression is having two consequences, both of which the occupation authorities are trying to exploit. On the one hand, Russian policies have so infuriated the Crimean Tatars that some of them are now listening to Islamist radicals, allowing Moscow to claim that they are becoming an advance guard for the Islamic State or the Taliban—thus providing yet another argument for those who oppose challenging Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory. And on the other, because Crimean Tatars are likely more upset with Moscow now than they were a year ago, immediately after the peninsula’s annexation, both the Russian

occupation authorities and the Russian central government see ever less reason to provide the Crimean Tatars with the help they promised. Such half-hearted support by Moscow will not make Crimean Tatars any more pro-Russian, but it will allow the Russian government to claim that it tried and that any remaining problems are, in fact, the fault of the Crimean Tatars themselves (Ukraina.ru, March 2). But the most ominous thing the Russian occupation forces are doing is to try to intimidate or close down media outlets and rights groups that have been reporting on these developments. QHA, the largest Crimean Tatar news agency, has been denied a second application for official registration and may be forced to close down soon (Khpg.org, February 23). And now, the occupation authorities are seeking to intimidate members of the Committee for the Defense of the Human Rights of the Crimean Tatar People into keeping quiet or face even more serious treatment (Qha.com.ua, March 5). Moscow seems to believe that if Russian officials mistreat Crimean Tatars and no one finds out about it then it has not happened. It is up to all those who care about the fate of that nation, human rights more generally, and international law to make sure that the Kremlin’s belief turns out to be misplaced.

--Paul Goble7 March, RT, A top NATO European commander’s exaggerated comments on the Ukrainian conflict are ‘dangerous propaganda,’ and put the West at risk of losing credibility, sources in the German Chancellor’s Office told Der Spiegel. General Philip Breedlove made harsh remarks on the situation in Ukraine on Wednesday, saying that the self-defense forces, with the assistance of Russia, have prepared “over a thousand combat vehicles” and “sophisticated air defense, battalions of artillery” in the south-east of the country. “What is clear is that right now it is not getting better, it is getting worse every day,” NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) concluded. The comments came on the same day as the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) stressed that progress in the fulfillment of the Minsk peace deal between Ukrainian government and the militias in Donetsk and Lugansk Regions. German authorities were “alarmed” by the stance of the NATO commander and wondered whether “the Americans [are] trying to thwart European efforts at mediation led by Chancellor Angela Merkel?” Der Spiegel wrote. The sources in the Chancellor’s office told the magazine that they viewed Breedlove's comments as “dangerous propaganda.”

"The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, likened Russian aggression to a growing fire that could sweep across parts of Eastern Europe. In an interview5 Thursday with the San Antonio-Express-News, he vowed to defend three Baltic states that joined NATO after the breakup of the Soviet Union if they’re targeted in the wake of fighting in the Ukraine. Echoing British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon, who warned earlier that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to inflame ethnic divisions in Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia, Dempsey said the United States was reviewing its options in concert with its NATO allies. "We are considering some things bilaterally, but Putin’s principal aim, strategically, is to fragment the NATO alliance, he told the paper. - And if we allow this issue to fragment the NATO alliance, then we will have actually have played into his grand strategy"."So everything we’re considering, we’re considering in the context of NATO, but we are looking at options that provide both nonlethal and defensive aid. Those options are being considered".

5 http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2015/02/20/20022.shtml

NATO is using Ukraine crisis to advance towards Russian borders 6 - Defense MinistryPublished time: March 05, 2015 NATO is using the situation in Ukraine to push closer to Russia's border, according to the Russian deputy defense minister Anatoly Antonov. He says the Alliance's activities have expanded considerably over the past years. In their push, Anatoly Antonov says Allied forces are ignoring diplomacy. "We've noticed that NATO member states are using the situation in southeastern Ukraine as a pretext to discard all diplomatic conventions, tricks and slogans and push forward, closer to the Russian border." According to the minister, what NATO is doing is completely out of proportion with what NATO commanders call the build-up of Russian forces on its side of the border in Ukraine. "NATO's activities are many times greater than Russia's." However, he added they aren't a threat to Russia's security. "Instead of uniting forces to fight evil, the worst of which is terrorism, Western nations are drawing new divisive lines, trying to realize containment schemes against unwelcome states. Today, Russia has been chosen as the target." "Throughout my military and diplomatic career, I haven't seen another period when Russian-American relations have been so difficult." The activities he was referring to include massive wargames in Eastern Europe and naval exercises in the Black Sea. On Wednesday, warships from the US, Turkey, Italy, Canada and Romania started drills there

Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, China has been remarkably forthright in its consistent opposition to the imposition of sanctions against Russia following the country’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and support for separatist movements in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

• Western nations should heed Russia's legitimate security concerns over the volatile situation in Ukraine, a top Chinese diplomat has said in a rare public statement on the crisis that has damaged relations between Russia and the West. Qu Xing, China's ambassador to Belgium, said the Ukrainian crisis came about due to the ongoing “game 7”– a metaphor similar to that used by US geopolitical strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, who referred to it as the “grand chessboard8” – between Russia and the West, which has not abated despite, or because of, the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“The US made it public it brokered the transit of power in Ukraine. But we know perfectly well what exactly happened, who discussed candidates for the future Ukrainian government on the phone, who was at Maidan, and what is going on [in Ukraine] right now,” Lavrov said.

As we look at threats around the world, these are global issues and we need to have multinational solutions. The head of the US Army says he is "very concerned" about the impact of spending cuts on the UK's armed forces. Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno voiced his reservations about the falling proportion of the UK's national wealth being spent on the military. He warned it could see British units operating within US ranks, rather than divisions working alongside each other. The Ministry of Defence said the government was committed to spending 2% of GDP on defence.

6 http://rt.com/news/237977-nato-russia-border-diplomacy/7 "The Great Game" was a term for the strategic rivalry and conflict between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia8 The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives is one of the major works of Zbigniew Brzezinski.

“There would be no hesitation, the task would be executed,” he said. Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces are ready to react to any nuclear strike even if it is lightning fast, SMF Central Command chief said. A retaliatory strike would take place in all circumstances, “without hesitation,” he added. “If there’s a challenge to repel a lightning-fast nuclear in any given conditions – it will be done in fixed time, that’s dead true,” the Strategic Missile Forces Central Command’s chief, Major-General Andrey Burbin, told Russian News Service on 28 Feb. Russia’s strategic missile forces are positioned geographically in such a way that no global strike can knock them out completely, Burbin said.

Chinese diplomat lectures West on Russia’s ‘real security concerns’ over UkrainePublished time: February 27, Western nations should heed Russia's legitimate security concerns over the volatile situation in Ukraine, a top Chinese diplomat has said in a rare public statement on the crisis that has damaged relations between Russia and the West. Qu Xing, China's ambassador to Belgium, said the Ukrainian crisis came about due to the ongoing “game”– a metaphor similar to that used by US geopolitical strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, who referred to it as the “grand chessboard” – between Russia and the West, which has not abated despite, or because of, the collapse of the Soviet Union. Xing advised Western powers to “abandon the zero-sum mentality” in their efforts to deal with Moscow and the Ukraine crisis and “take the real security concerns of Russia into consideration," Reuters reported, quoting state news agency Xinhua. China in the past has urged all involved parties to sit down and negotiate for peace. The Chinese ambassador, whose Brussels office is in the same city as NATO’s headquarters, then offered some insight as to what motivates the United States on the international stage, and what could lead to its possible decline. “The United States is unwilling to see its presence in any part of the world being weakened, but the fact is its resources are limited, and it will be to some extent hard work to sustain its influence in external affairs,” he was quoted as saying. Xing said Washington's involvement in Ukraine could “become a distraction in its foreign policy.” Russia has been accused of arming eastern Ukrainian militia and dispatching soldiers and armaments as reinforcement – claims Moscow has denied on numerous occasions. There were even suggestions that Russia was somehow involved in the downing of Malaysian Airlines MH17 over eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014. Despite the extreme nature of the allegations, no substantive evidence has ever been presented to support such claims. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has blamed the United States as being the primary destabilizing factor in Ukraine. Through every step, as the crisis has developed, our American colleagues and the EU under their influence have tried to escalate the situation,” Lavrov told participants at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month.

Without Lips Teeth Feel the Cold? Chinese Support for Russia in the Ukraine CrisisPublication: China Brief Volume: 15 Issue: 4February 20, 2015 By: Clark Edward Barrett

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang meets with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev during Li's October 2014 visit to Russia. (Credit: Xinhua)

Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, China has been remarkably forthright in its consistent opposition to the imposition of sanctions against Russia following the country’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and support for separatist movements in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. China, along with Brazil, India and South Africa, abstained from voting on United Nations (UN) General Assembly Resolution 68/262, which affirmed the UN’s commitment to recognize Crimea within Ukraine’s international borders. More recently, on February 2, in Beijing, the foreign ministers of China, Russia and India issued a joint statement condemning interference in the internal affairs of other nations through the use of United Nations General Assembly resolutions, attempts at regime change and the unilateral imposition of sanctions on the basis of domestic law alone in a clear rebuttal of the United States and its sanctions against Russia (Xinhua, February 2). These strong statements in favor of Russia, albeit without official statements of support for its actions in Ukraine, suggest that China is actively formulating trade and economic cooperation deals with Russia to circumvent Western sanctions and in extremis may consider providing emergency aid to Russia should it be requested by Vladimir Putin. Beijing’s support for Russia, evident in increased bilateral state-run investments, ministerial pronouncements and wide-ranging media coverage, appears to be motivated by economic concerns and a desire to preserve Russia as a bulwark against U.S. dominance in the international community.

Sino-Russian Economic Cooperation ; Following the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, and especially as the Russian economy deteriorated in the second half of 2014, the Chinese government stepped in with numerous agreements for economic cooperation to support the Russian economy. Russia’s quest to alleviate its economic distress by finding alternative export markets and investments as well as using its foreign currency reserves to support the Ruble has likely motivated an upsurge in Sino-Russian diplomacy and trade in 2014. Prominent examples of recent Sino-Russian economic cooperation include 49 agreements signed by President Putin during his May 2014 visit to China, including two major deals for Russia to deliver a total of 68 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to China beginning in 2018 (see China Brief, January 23; Xinhua, May 24, 2014). Xinhua explained that Russia is seeking to “look east” by strengthening its cooperation with China and other Asia-Pacific states in order to compensate for the departure of Western investors following the imposition of sanctions (Xinhua, May 24, 2014). During an October 2014 visit to Russia, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed 38 cooperation agreements in energy, trade and finance, including the opening of a new credit limit agreement between the Russian Foreign Trade Bank and China Export-Import Bank. Li also signed a currency exchange arrangement intended to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, which would reduce Russia’s reliance on the dollar. Tellingly, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported the deals under an article entitled, “China Helps Russia Resist Western Sanctions,” which further detailed that between January and September 2014, Chinese oil imports from Russia grew by 45 percent, in contrast to a 20-percent decline in Russian oil sales to Europe over the same period (Ministry of Commerce, October 13, 2014). Despite the accords signed between China and Russia over the summer of 2014, Russia’s economic condition markedly deteriorated from September to December due to declining government oil revenues and the accelerating depreciation of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. By November, a number of Chinese state-run media outlets began to report that China was beginning to be affected by Russia’s economic weakness. According to Zhang Jianping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission Research Unit on International Cooperation, the Ruble’s rapid devaluation and the reduced spending power of Russia’s population were having a detrimental impact on Russia-China trade. Zhang also stated that some cooperation agreements signed between Russian and Chinese companies had

been discontinued due to the state of Russia’s economy. He added that Western punishment of the country might have a negative effect on China’s “one belt, one road” project (yidaiyilu), better known as the “New Silk Road,” which is the focus of significant Chinese financial and diplomatic efforts in Asia (see China Brief, December 19, 2014; Xinhua, December 18, 2014). Liu Huaqin, the deputy director of European Affairs at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, claimed that the ruble’s instability presents significant risks to Chinese companies that invest in Russia, such as Fuyao Glass and automotive manufacturer Geely, and that as of December some Chinese companies were already suffering. Liu asserted that the ruble’s devaluation and the fall of world oil prices is a deliberate part of the West’s punishment of Russia and that the greater competitiveness of Russian exports to China resulting from ruble depreciation is insufficient to mitigate the damage caused by Western sanctions. Liu concluded that it “may be necessary to adopt appropriate measures such as helping Russia through the crisis” (Xinhua, December 18, 2014).

Beijing Debates a China-led SCO Bailout for Russia Liu’s statement presaged a more serious Chinese discussion of greater support for the Russian economy. Although the underlying factors of Russia’s economic problems in other countries have in the past been solved through a bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), U.S. dominance over the institution suggests it would likely demand the cessation of Russian involvement in Ukraine and the restoration of the status quo ante bellum as a prerequisite of aid. This leaves the Chinese government as the remaining viable option for Russia should assistance be required. On December 18, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang, dismissed Western claims that Russia’s economy was on the brink of collapse, adding that China believed Russia—with ample foreign currency reserves, a comparatively small debt-to-GDP ratio compared with most other G20 nations, a rich energy and good industrial base—had taken steps to stabilize its foreign currency market and would overcome its present crisis (Xinhua, December 18, 2014). When asked whether China would support Russia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Qin answered: “Presently the world economic recovery is slow and the SCO was not only intended to guarantee regional stability and security but also to provide a serious development platform for members…the SCO has a common wish, which is to strengthen pragmatic cooperation between members, commonly promoting the economic stability and growth of individual member states and the region at large” (Xinhua, December 18, 2014). Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi late asserted that China has consistently offered mutual support and assistance to Russia, and if Russia were in need, “China will do everything in its power (lisuo nengli) to help and supply necessary aid” (Phoenix, December 20, 2014). Chinese solidarity with Russia was also expressed by Premier Li during a December 2014 SCO heads of government summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, where he met with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to Li, due to the perilous state of the world economic recovery, SCO members should “cross the river in the same boat” (tongzhuogongyi), a statement which Chinese newspaper Guancha interpreted as a signal that China was prepared to directly assist Russia (Guancha, December 20, 2014). Li also expressed his wish that Russia would widen its cooperation with China in energy, industry, high-speed rail, finance and development of Russia’s Far East (People's Daily, December 16, 2014). Commenting on these developments, Cheng Yijun a research fellow at the Development Research Center under the State Council, claimed that, “if the Kremlin decides to seek assistance from Beijing, it is very unlikely for the Xi leadership to turn it down... This would be a perfect opportunity to demonstrate China is a true friend, and also its great-power status” (Guancha, December

20, 2014). Russia’s Ambassador to China, Andrey Denisov, thanked China for expressing its opposition to Western sanctions and stressed that Russia only desires support from China, not assistance. Denisov maintained that discussions about Russia’s economic situation should be centered not on aid but on mutual reciprocation and advantage, such as in trade and the settlement of contracts in local currencies (Global Times, December 30, 2014).

Chinese Media Cynical About Goal of Western Sanctions Besides Chinese ministerial pronouncements about assisting Russia, Chinese state media have also provided insights into China’s strategic calculations in relation to the Ukraine crisis. Following Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli’s visit to Russia on September 1, 2014, the People’s Daily published an essay by the deputy Director of the China Institute of International Studies, Su Xiaohui, who claimed that the Sino-Russian energy relationship is not at all a stop-gap measure (quanyi zhiji), and is instead based on mutual profit and advantage. Furthermore, China and Russia’s cooperation is beneficial in developing Russia’s Far Eastern region, which is relatively backward and will bring improved roads, power stations and general infrastructure in keeping with Russia’s national revitalization project. Su rebuked those in the West who might criticize China for supporting Russia during sanctions and argued that China has always opposed such measures and instead prefers diplomatic solutions to global disputes (People’s Daily Oversees, September 4, 2014). An editorial titled “China and Russia Have Already Joined Hands to Shape the New World Order,” published in International Finance News (a subsidiary of the People’s Daily) claimed that Russia’s actions in Ukraine are a reaction against U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) humiliation of the country following the Soviet Union’s collapse. Moreover, the editorial connects the Ukraine crisis with maritime disputes between China, Japan and the Philippines, both of which, the newspaper asserts, were instigated by the United States as part of its pivot to Asia and attempts to encircle China (International Finance News, September 29, 2014). However, some Chinese scholars do not agree that China should be prepared to offer loans to President Putin’s Russia. Wang Haiyun, the deputy director of the Sino-Russian Relations Research Group under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claimed that Chinese public opinion is evenly divided on the issue of Russian aid, with one group advocating support for Russia and the other contending that helping would only place a burden on China (Global Times, December 21, 2014). Wang maintains that both of these opinions are extreme since definitively backing Russia would accentuate U.S.-China conflict and draw fire onto China (yinhuo shaoshen), which would not be in China’s strategic interest. On the other hand, not concerning itself with Russia would constitute a lack of foresight, since a Russian economic collapse precipitated by sanctions would affect many countries (including China), and ultimately both China and Russia would face renewed U.S. strategic pressure. Criticism has also been leveled at Russia’s poor management of its economy, which has left it vulnerable to sanctions. Zheng Yu, a Russian specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, censured Russia for failing to reform its economy noting that Western sanctions are merely exacerbating a deeper economic malaise caused by the preponderance of oil in Russia’s economy. The formation of energy oligopolies, have impeded the productivity of non-governmental industries and scientific progress making Russian non-oil products uncompetitive outside the Commonwealth of Independent States. Zheng contends that this situation, more serious to Russia than the global financial crisis in 2008, might be beneficial in the long-term by compelling the Russian leadership to embark on a comprehensive program of economic reforms (Global Times, October 23, 2014).

Conclusion Clearly, Chinese ministerial pronouncements and state-run articles indicate the variance of Chinese and Western views toward Russia’s actions in Ukraine and its place in the

international community. Chinese media discussion of possible assistance for the Russian economy suggests that Beijing clearly views maintaining a stable and capable Russia in China’s long-term geopolitical and economic interests. Accordingly, the Chinese leadership has taken major steps to facilitate the expansion of Sino-Russian trade and investment, which are vital for Russia in its efforts to avert serious economic distress caused by sanctions and its near-total exclusion from Western capital markets. Moreover, indications exist that the Chinese leadership appears willing to provide emergency assistance to Russia should it be required and that Beijing is seriously contemplating the best way of administering any possible aid to protect Russian pride and help Putin save face in such an event. In addition to securing its northern neighbor against Western encroachment, China will also derive economic benefits from liberalizing investment opportunities in Russia’s Far East while also gaining diplomatic capital in Moscow.

Files:

China_Brief_Vol_15_Issue_4_4.pdf

26 Feb, The US bears a considerable share of the blame for driving the situation in Ukraine towards the poor state it is in now, the speaker of the Russian State Duma says. The crisis threatens entire European continent. Instead of promoting a peaceful resolution for the crisis, Washington and its allies are bent on imposing sanctions against Russia, “partially to cover up their own guilt for the events,” Sergey Naryshkin told a media conference in New Delhi. “The guilt of the United States of America for those events is considerable and obvious to the entire world,” he stressed. Naryshkin added that the sanctions policy is nothing but “economic blackmail that has nothing to do with law.” He said that the conflict in Ukraine “poses a risk to international security, first of all to European security.” Meanwhile Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the travails of Ukraine are a direct result of Western interventionism. “For a quarter of century the key principles of the United Nations had been systematically violated. The US and other Western nations neglected the fundamental rules of international law, widely used double standards and didn't hesitate to intervene directly into other nations' sovereign affairs. The impact of this policy is fully felt by the peoples of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and now Ukraine,” Lavrov said at a diplomatic scholars’ meeting in Moscow. Apart from sanctions Russia sees a more direct threat to the fragile ceasefire in Ukraine. The UK announced it would send military trainers to help Kiev build up its army. Officials in Moscow see the move as potentially derailing the truce. Britain, which was not part of the Normandy format [Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine, which negotiated the ceasefire], is apparently prepared to derail the entire process. What kind of EU unity over a political resolution in Ukraine are we talking about here?” a source close to the Kremlin told journalists. “Statements from London that say there’s no military solution to the Ukrainian crisis amid this move appear to be at least hypocritical and a case of gambling with the security of all Europe in worst-case scenario,” the source added. The ceasefire brokered by the four nations in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, appears to be holding up despite numerous violations.

24 Feb, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said war with neighbouring Ukraine is "unlikely", in an interview for Russian television. Mr Putin also stressed his support for the recent Minsk ceasefire deal as the best way to stabilise eastern Ukraine. Ukraine says Russian troops have been fighting in Ukraine. Mr Putin repeated denials that this was the case. Foreign ministers from Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany are meeting in Paris on Tuesday to discuss the ceasefire.

24 Feb, If the US were to supply Ukraine with ammunition and weapons, it would “explode the whole situation” in eastern Ukraine and Russia would be forced to respond “appropriately,” Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said. “It would be a major blow to the Minsk agreements and would explode the whole situation,” TASS quoted Ryabkov as saying. Moscow would not be able to remain indifferent “to such provocative actions,” he added. “We’ll have to respond appropriately.” “Is that necessary for those who are allegedly calling for the normalization of the situation in Ukraine? I have serious doubts. People may be irresponsible in their actions, but there must be an end to this madness [of] indulging Kiev’s warmongering,” explained Ryabkov. "Russia is the third Rome," Chaplin says. "Russia is the only center of unenslaved civilization capable of revealing itself as Christian." Orthodox Priest Gives Russians One More Thing To Worry About The Russian literary world barely batted an eye when a little-known writer, Aron Shemaiyer, published a dystopic e-novella, "Machaut and the Bears 9," last year. But interest is now picking up, with the revelation that Shemaiyer is the nom de plume of Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, the influential spokesman of the Russian Orthodox Church. Suddenly, the plot of "Machaut" -- which describes the apocalyptic destruction of 2043 Moscow at the hands of Islamists, Ukrainians, and gays -- seems less like the ravings of a lonely keyboard warrior and more like a well-informed window on what scares the Kremlin most. "'The press secretary to the president of the Moscow Confederation and Assembly of Revolution Leaders, Tasho Pim, has warned that people who fail to comply with the new ban on intolerant thinking will be subject to involuntary euthanasia,'" a news report announces in the opening scene, followed shortly by an ad for a "happiness generator" called the HaHaHa 25.0. By the end of the story, the Moscow Confederation has fallen amid fighting between Free Russia fascists, Caucasus militants, and Ukrainian nationalists; in appropriately Biblical style, the once-great city has been reduced to rubble by nuclear bombs. "Russia is the third Rome," he says in an interview with the religious website religare.ru.

Regards Cees ** "Russia is the third Rome," Chaplin says. "Russia is the only center of unenslaved civilization capable of revealing itself as Christian." --- the plot of "Machaut" -- which describes the apocalyptic destruction of 2043 Moscow at the hands of Islamists, Ukrainians, and gays; --- Shemaiyer is the nom de plume of Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, the influential spokesman of the Russian Orthodox Church.

According to Al-Qaida Strategist Abu Mus'ab Al-Suri; Turkey, Pakistan and countries of central Asia: It contains the second largest reserves of oil in the world. It contains a huge and historical Islamic movement. It is considered to provide strategic depth to the Jihadist movement and Arab resistance.

In the 21 Coptic decapitating by Daesh released video: A militant says they are sending a message “from the south of Rome”. At the end of the footage the same English-speaking

9 http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-orthodox-priest-novel-machaut-and-the-bears-shemaiyer-chaplin/26870612.html

fighter raises his knife to the water and says ISIS would “conquer Rome”. In the video released by the militants, an Islamist says in English: “All crusaders: safety for you will be only wishes, especially if you are fighting us all together. Therefore we will fight you all together… The sea you have hidden Sheikh Usama Bin Laden’s body in, we swear to Allah we will mix it with your blood.”

The execution video of Jordanian pilot was accompanied with the song which released from the Media Office of ISIS, serves as intimidation and threat to all who participated in international alliance, the song has started by describing the conflict as a terrible, and that the battles with these countries, will be in their own home, in different ways including slaughter and blasting on the hands of its fighters.

"Instead of uniting forces to fight evil, the worst of which is terrorism, Western nations are drawing new divisive lines, trying to realize containment schemes against unwelcome states. Today, Russia has been chosen as the target. --- the Russian deputy defense minister Anatoly Antonov.

C: Yes intervention in a sovereign Nation is against all internationally recognized laws, however others” have done so in the past, an issue we likely do not want to mention. We could argue if Putin is really wanting the third World War, or is he acting – as he warned more than once - on the decades long creeping NATO expansion East. We have given an open door to him by doing so, moreover for decades the West failed to commit deeds to the words of having a stable deterrent stability force to keep him in check. Additionally, it is no secret that western states have put oil to the fire by mingling in instable – former Soviet, and other -states to include the Ukraine, or leaving still not, or partially - stabilized states behind after intervention. The west if falling back to what they know; the Russian Bear is the threat, totally ignoring or not acting to the much faster growing threat of the Caliphate established phenomena and the threat it starting to have to the global stability. Russia, with about fifty percent of its territory having Muslim communities, and many at its borders - has warned more than once for this threat. It even went so far as calling the West to join forces to counter: to no vain so far.