Akshay Sawant MMS Finance. 55 Rs/$ 52 Rs/$ Rupee Appreciated & Dollar Depreciated Dollar...
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Transcript of Akshay Sawant MMS Finance. 55 Rs/$ 52 Rs/$ Rupee Appreciated & Dollar Depreciated Dollar...
Purchasing Power Parity
Akshay SawantMMS Finance
Currency Basics
55 Rs/$ 52 Rs/$ Rupee Appreciated & Dollar Depreciated
Dollar depreciated by (52/55)-1 i.e. 5.4 %
Rupee appreciated by [ (1/52)/(1/55) ] – 1 i.e. (0.01923)/(0.01818) – 1 = 5.769 %
Law of One Price
The law of one price says that the same
good in different competitive markets
must sell for the same price, when
transportation costs and barriers between
markets are not important.
Purchasing Power Parity
Japan cheapest, UK most expensive
Yen is undervalued, Pound overvaluedEXCHANGE RATE
(US)US$ VALUE
$29.99
$1 = ¥ 114.57 2500/114.57 = $21.82
$1 = £ 0.5591 25/.5591 = $44.72
COUNTRY LOCALCURRENCY
US $ 29.99
Japan ¥ 2500
UK £ 25
Absolute Purchasing Power Parity
The exchange rate between two countries will be identical to the ratio of the price levels for those two countries
. E (Rs/$) = P (Rs) / P ($)
EG Price of a product in India = 250 Rs
Price of same product in US = 5 $
Thus E (Rs/$) = 250/5 = 50 Rs/$
The following conditions must be met for this relationship to be true:
1.The goods of each country must be freely tradable on the international market.
2.The price index for each of the two countries must be comprised of the same basket of goods.
3.All of the prices need to be indexed to the same year.
Relative Purchasing Power Parity
Relative purchasing power parity relates the change in two countries' expected inflation rates to the change in their exchange rates.
E(N) = E(0) (DC/FC) (1 + IDC) / (1 + IFC)
Where,
E(0) is the spot exchange rate at the beginning of the time period.
E(N) is the spot exchange rate at the end of the N years.
IFC is the expected annualized inflation rate for foreign country.
IDC is the expected annualized inflation rate for domestic country.
Example
E(0) = 55 Rupees per dollar . Consider annual inflation rate for the
U.S. to be 1.4 % The annual expected Indian inflation rate
is 6.87 % E(0) = 55 Rs per dollar. (1 + IFC) = 1.014 (1 + IDC) = 1.0687. S1 = (1.0687) / (1.014) × 55 = 57.9669 Rupees per $
Basket Example PRODUCTS USA IN $ INDIA
RUPEE/DOLLAR
Coke, Pepsi 1 20 20
Candy bars & chocolates- snickers,
1 20 20
1 tin of frozen yogurt( 2 tins
from Wal-Mart)
1 15 15
1 small packet of lays
1 10 10
500 ml purified water
1 10 10
20 -30 strips of chewing gum
1 20 20
PPP Conversion
factor
15.83
Big Mac Index
Introduced in The Economist in September 1986 by Pam Woodall
Informal way of measuring the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between two currencies
Big Mac was chosen because it is available to a common specification in many countries around the world
Contd…
Big Mac PPP exchange rate between two countries is obtained by dividing the price of a Big Mac in one country by the price of a Big Mac in another country.
This value is then compared with the actual exchange rate; if it is lower, then the first currency is under-valued compared with the second, and conversely, if it is higher, then the first currency is over-valued.
Arbitrage Opportunities
1$ = 55 Rs Big Mac price in US 4.33 $...So price
in India should be 238 Rs But in India Price is 89 Rs Thus PPP exchange rate is 20.57
(89/4.33) Indians would produce in India and
sell in US for the arbitrage opportunity
Thus Rupee will appreciate
THANK YOU