AK Climate-change Integrated Modeling project ( …...Photo: Mark Holsman Kirstin Holsman 1...
Transcript of AK Climate-change Integrated Modeling project ( …...Photo: Mark Holsman Kirstin Holsman 1...
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Photo: Mark Holsman
Kirstin Holsman1 [email protected]
Identifying impacts and management solutions for Eastern Bering Sea fisheries.
AK Climate-change Integrated Modeling project (ACLIM)
ACLIM PIs: Anne Hollowed1, Kirstin Holsman1, Alan Haynie1, Stephen Kasperski1, Jim Ianelli1, Kerim Aydin1, Wei Cheng2,3, Al Hermann2,3, Trond Kristiansen4, Andre Punt5
1. NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2. NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research,
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory 3. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
Ocean, University of Washington 4. Institute of Marine Research, Bergen Norway 5. School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science, University of
Washington
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The ACLIM team
Kirstin Holsman Alan Haynie Anne Hollowed Wei Cheng Albert Hermann
Darren Pilcher Kerim Aydin Stephen Kasperski
Amanda Faig
Jim Ianelli Ingrid Spies
Andre Punt
Cody Szuwalski
Jonathan Reum Michael Dalton Paul Spencer Tom Wilderbuer William Stockhausen
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5th IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) IPCC 5th Assessment Report
“STATUS QUO” SCENARIO BEST CASE SCENARIO
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4 billion $ per yr
4 million tons per yr
50% of all US fish landed
Alaska-wide Fisheries
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4 billion $ per yr
4 million tons per yr
50% of all US fish landed 2 billion $ per yr
2 million tons per yr
40% of all US fish landed Bering Sea
Alaska-wide Fisheries
Bering Sea Fisheries
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Photo: Mark Holsman
Physical & NPZ modeling
Dr. Al Hermann Dr. Wei Cheng
JISAO/UW and NOAA/PMEL
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IPCC global projections drive regional model (dynamical downscaling)
IPCC model (MIROC) Regional model (Bering10K)
IPCC global atmosphere provides surface forcing IPCC global ocean provides boundary conditions
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Bering10K validation: Bottom Temp (deg C) summer 2009
DATA MODEL
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RCP 8.5 SRES A1B RCP 4.5
“Business as usual”
Carbon Emission Scenarios
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11 Part 1 Overview Presenter: Anne Hollowed
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Ensemble of Bering10K output: Bottom Temperature
GFDL
MIROC
CESM Hindcast
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2016
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Photo: Mark Holsman
Biological modeling
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Multiple Interacting (non-linear) Pressures Additive Pressures
Increasing complexity
Faster
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Modeled age 5 pollock biomass (colored contours) and 0-300m integrated euphausiid density (color field)
for July, 2004. v
Prey density
Encounter rate FEAST Ortiz et al. 2016
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Multiple Interacting (non-linear) Pressures Additive Pressures
Increasing complexity
Faster
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Holsman et al. in prep Climate-specific Harvest &
Population Projections
Harvest Control Rule
Preview: CEATTLE projections
x10
GFDL (rcp 4.5 & 8.5)
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
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Future Climate Scenarios
11 X Harvest Scenarios
5 X
Coupled Socio-Ecological System
Climate-enhanced Single-species Assessment Model ACLIM: Alaska Climate-change
Integrated Modeling project
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
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Future Climate Scenarios
11 X
Climate-enhanced Multi-species Assessment Model ACLIM: Alaska Climate-change
Integrated Modeling project
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
Harvest Scenarios
5 X
Coupled Socio-Ecological System
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Sources of Error 1. Observation error
• Measurement error • Spatial heterogeneity • Temporal variability • Reduce through replication
2. Process error • “Noise” due to environmental variability • Can be recreated using climate models • MCMC to get “avg” trend right
3. Model misspecification error • Can result from spurious correlations • Under or over estimate interactions • More likely with indirect effects ? • Experimental manipulation to reduce error • Avg. from multiple models can help reduce
error (“multi-model inference”)?
Part 1 Overview Presenter: Anne Hollowed
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Holsman et al. in prep Climate-specific Harvest &
Population Projections
Harvest Control Rule
Preview: CEATTLE projections
x10
GFDL (rcp 4.5 & 8.5)
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
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CEATTLE: Recruitment
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
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Catch under mean F
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Ianelli et al. in press: Blended Forecasts
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
blended forecasts
Ianelli, J KK Holsman, AE Punt, K Aydin (2015). Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessment estimates of fishery biological reference points. Deep Sea Res II. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.04.002
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Blended results (three models)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
Single spp. No Temp.
Single spp. Avg. Rhist Temp. W@A
Multi spp. Temp. Ration Avg. Rhist Temp. W@A
Blended Result
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Catch under mean F
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1990-2010 2040 Catch under mean F
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Catch under mean F
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Catch under mean F
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Catch under mean F By climate scenario
RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5
Mean hist.
SRES A1B
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Catch under mean F
MIROC CESM Mean hist.
GFDL ECHOG.
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Considerations for MMI: • Consider “baseline” bias correction • Near-term or long-term? Avg. or indiv. • Tactical vs strategic? communication • Model weighting
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Coupled Socio-Ecological System Future Climate Scenarios
11 X
Climate-enhanced Biological Models
5 X ACLIM: Alaska Climate-change Integrated Modeling project
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
Harvest Scenarios
5 X
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Socioeconomic elements (Alan Haynie) Dr. Alan Haynie
Economist at NMFS/AFSC/NOAA [email protected]
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Thanks!
“Behind these numbers lies, of course, an infinity of movements and of destinies.”
– von Bertalanffy 1938 …and of people!
FATE: Fisheries & the Environment SAAM: Stock Assessment Analytical Methods S&T: Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
NPRB & BSIERP Team ACLIM Team NOAA IEA Program
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Future Climate Scenarios
11 X
Climate-enhanced Ecosystem
Models ACLIM: Alaska Climate-change Integrated Modeling project
Part 2 Presenter: Kirstin Holsman
Harvest Scenarios
5 X
Coupled Socio-Ecological System
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Ecopath food web model (Aydin et al. 2007)
Eastern Bering Sea
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Body mass Body mass
Particles that eat, grow and reproduce
Species level attributes -Maximum size -Minimum size -Size at maturation -preferred prey size -preferred prey species -MIZER
Biom
ass
Reum in prep
Size-spectrum model (Dr. Reum)
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One future realization of Bottom Temp
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CE-Single Species CE- Multispecies CE- EWE CE- Size spectrum FEAST
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Bering10K model
• Descendent of NEP5
(Danielson et al. 2012) • 10 layers, 10-km grid
Includes ice and tides • CCSM bulk flux • Details in Hermann et al.
(DSR2, 2013, 2016)
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Challenges
• GCM selection • Computing capacity limitations • Data-sharing/Translating model outputs • Models based on current ecological understanding • Evolution of models to incorporate nascent science
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Successes • Strong integrated research program at AFSC • Right mix of people and tools • Engagement with council & stakeholders is iterative • Long-term analyses can inform short-term forecasts
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EUPHAUSIIDS
LARGE COPEPODS
MICROZOOPLANKTON
SMALL PHYTOPLANKTON
LARGE PHYTOPLANKTON
NITRATE AMMONIUM
Slow sinking DETRITUS
BENTHIC FAUNA
BENTHIC DETRITUS
IRON
ICE ALGAE
NITRATE AMMONIUM
SMALL COPEPODS
Excretion/ Respiration
ICE
OCEAN
BENTHOS
Bering10K-NPZ Model (Gibson and Spitz, 2011)
Mortality Predation Egestion Molting
JELLYFISH Inexplicit
food source
FEAST Fast sinking DETRITUS
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Bering10K validation: Modeled/Observed mid-shelf temperatures (deg C)
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Bering Sea vulnerability analysis: Compare present time variance and mean anticipated change with
present fish distribution
Summer Bottom Temp anticipated change Walleye pollock Essential Fish Habitat
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http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/ecosystems/climate/national-climate-strategy
National and international climate impact assessments 2020-2022 • Scientific advancement, regional
feedback • Operationalization of national
climate-ecosystem projection enterprise
• Testing management strategies for climate Informed decision making - NPFMC FEP
ACLIM Purpose and Need
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The Bering Sea (Alaska)
world’s most extensive eelgrass beds 450 species of fish and shell fish
35 million birds 25 species of marine mammals.
40% of the total US commercial catch of fish and shellfish world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery
75% of the subsistence harvest for 55,000 Alaskans
Long history of integrated ecosystem research programs- Most recently the Bering Sea Project (NPRB, NSF, NOAA): 90 investigators, $52 M
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Closing Remarks • Integrated modeling teams seeking to quantify
implications of different climate and management scenarios.
• Addresses multiple sources of uncertainty • Projections vary considerably between GCMs • Phase II: RTAP proposal to rapidly uptake AR6 model
results to align IPCC WG 1 & 2 • Coordinated research teams within NMFS SCs and
internationally through ICES & PICES - SICCME.