A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute...

24
March 2017 A.J. Plast Public Company Limited

Transcript of A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute...

Page 1: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

March 2017

A.J. Plast Public Company Limited

Page 2: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

March 2017

A.J. Plast Public Company Limited

Page 3: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. If you

are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, circulate, retain, distribute or take any

action in reliance upon this material.

The information contained in this presentation does not constitute or form any part of any offer or

invitation to purchase any securities and neither the issue of the information nor anything contained

herein shall form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment on the

part of any person to proceed with any transaction.

This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be

considered a recommendation to any recipient of this presentation. Some information contains

projections and forward-looking statements that reflect the company’s current views with respect to

future events and financial performance. These views are based on current assumptions which are

subject to various risks and which may change over time. No assurance can be given that future events

will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the company’s assumptions are correct. Actual

results may differ materially from those projected.

Page 4: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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AJ snapshot: One-stop BO (biaxially-oriented) film manufacturer

Business description

Top 10 Shareholders

• AJ is a BO (biaxially-oriented) film manufacturer, offering one-stop service for BO film

used primarily in flexible packaging

• Expanded into CPP film and off-line chemical coating film to enhance product

portfolio and add value to existing products

• AJ is capable of producing full range of flexible packaging films which are:

• AJ is founded in 1987 and listed on the SET in 1990

• SET Ticker - AJ

• Bloomberg Code - AJ:TB

Value chain

Upstream

petrochem.

industry

Resin

producer

e.g. IVL,

PTTCH,

UBE,

TPC

BO film

producer

Product

manuf.

e.g. food

processor

(CPF, TUF)

Converter

/ PrinterConsumer

Plastic

resin

Plastic

film

Packaging Finished

goods

นาย กิตติภตั สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 24.31%

นาย ภูมิพนัฉตัร สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 11.62%

นาย ณรงค ์สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 7.48%

น.ส. อจลา สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 6.54%

น.ส. วรัญญา ฉตัรพิริยะพนัธ์ 2.81%

บริษทั ไทยเอน็วีดีอาร์ จ ากดั 2.29%

นาย กิตติภตั สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 2.16%

น.ส. ดารณี ฉตัรพิริยะพนัธ์ 1.78%

น.ส. โสพิศ ภูสนาคม 1.58%

นาง นงนิภา สุทธิสมัพทัน์ 1.4%

Financial highlight

(as of 1Q2017)

Product BOPP BOPET BOPA CPP

Capacity (MT/yr) 132,000 62,000 18,000 16,000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Production Capacity

Unit: MB 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Revenue 7,032 6,259 6,545 5,452 5,287

Net profit 121 4 -248 -98 190

Total

assets8,495 8,244 8,243 7,542 6,108

D/E ratio 1 .62 1.6 1.62 1.22 0.72

P/E 47.11 - - 54.69 36.65

Market

cap.5,386 2,397 3,535 3,695 6,000

Page 5: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Schematic of BO Film Industry

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AJ snapshot: An overview of BO film production process

Ev alene EvaleneEvalene

EvaleneEvalene

EvaleneEvalene

EvaleneEvalene

Evalene

Evalene

EvaleneEvalene

EvaleneEvalenemain

extruder co- ex 1 co- ex 2

Raw Material FeedingExtrusion

(Extruder)

Casting(Casting Section)

Longitudinal Stretching(Machine Direction Orienter)

Transversal Stretching(Transverse Direction Orienter)

Flame/Corona Treating(Pull Roll Section)

AGEING(Ageing Rack)

Slitting(Main Slitter Machine)

Secondary Slitting(Secondary Slitter Machine)

Weighing / Packing Loading Delivery

Winding(Winding Section)

Storage

BOPP PROCESSFLOW DIAGRAM

Page 7: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Equipped with engine to achieve growth: Leader in Southeast Asia

Well-planned capacity expansion Additional capacity towards leadership

SEA’s largest BO film producer in all

segments since 2014

Year BOPP BOPET BOPA CPPVALUE

ADDED LINE

1987 • 1st BOPP

1995 • 2nd BOPP • 1st BOPET

2001 • 1st Metallizer

2003 • 3rd BOPP • 2nd BOPET • 2nd Metallizer

2006 • 1st BOPA

2008 • 4th BOPP

2010 • 3rd Metallizer

2011 • 3rd BOPET • 2nd BOPA

2013 • 5th BOPP • 4th BOPET

2014 • 6th BOPP • 1st CPP• 4th & 5th

Metallizer

2015 • 6th Metallizer

2016 • 1st Coater

(Unit: MT)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BOPP

BOPET

BOPA (Nylon)

105,000 115,000 155,000 242,000 Total capacity

New Machine

8,000 18,000 18,000

18,000

18,000

31,000 31,000 31,000

31,000

62,000

66,000 66,000 66,000

106,000

146,000

115,000

16,000 CPP

2014-Present

Page 8: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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• Protect the product from chemical /

biological exposure

Health

• Minimum use of resources

• Easy to empty / recycle

Environment

• Easy to handle, store & transport

Logistics

Recent structural changes of packaging industry: Catalyst for BO film demand

22%

18%

17%

17%

3%

11%

12%

U.S. packaging industry (2009)

Corrugated

Flexible

Misc rigid plastics

& bottles

Paperboard

Metal cans

Glass

Others

?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau data & Flexible

Packaging Association estimates

The market is overwhelmed by

various packaging alternatives

Key requirements for packaging

• Easy to manufacture & cost efficient

Economy

• Easy to open, hold & close

• Inform consumers about the product

Usability

• Contain, Inform, Protect, Transport &

Display

Basics

Flexible packaging has gradually

replaced conventional ones

Conventional

Flexible

Flexibility and functionality at competitive cost for producer and affordable price for consumer is key driver of

flexible packaging trend at present

What is the BEST one?

Flexible packaging provides many

consumer conveniences including

extended shelf life, easy storage,

microwaveability & resealability

Page 9: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Flexible packaging: Significant value and benefits to the market

FLEXIBLE

PACKAGING (FP)

Resource

Recovery

Sustainability

Advantages

Light

Weighting

FP reduces

waste, energy

consumption &

greenhouse gas

emission

FP waste can be

reproduced into

new FP

FP waste may

be used as

feedstock to

produce

gaseous & liquid

fuel

The lightweight package produces “less waste at the first place”

Examples of light weighting between 2005 -2011:

• Barrier enhancement: resulted in 50% less material for the same barrier

• Material toughness: layers reduced up to 50%

• Coextrusion technologies: enable weight reduction of up to 33%

• Equipment innovation: allows some film thickness to be reduced to 50%

Beverage packaging example

Glass bottle

& metal capPlastic PET

bottle & capAluminum

canStand-up

flexible pouch

Product weight (g) 236 236 236 199

Packaging weight (g) 198.4 22.7 11.3 5.7

Product-to-Packaging Ratio

1:1 10:1 21:1 35:1

Packaging weight per 100 g product (g)

83.9 9.6 4.7 2.8

MSW/1 landfill per 100 g product (g)

54.5 6.0 2.4 2.8

Energy consumption (MJ/8 oz)

3.36 3.00 0.99 0.45

Emissions (Kg Co2e/8 oz)

0.29 0.18 0.08 0.02

1 2 3 4

Advantages of FP over alternative packaging

Remark: /1 MSW stands for municipal solid waste

Source: FPA (Flexible Packaging Association) Case Studies

• The flexible beverage pouch consumes ½

the amount of energy compared to the

closet alternative

• The flexible beverage pouch generates ¾

less emission than the closet alternative

• The flexible beverage pouch uses less space

in shipping than other alternatives, reducing

transportation emission while saving costs

Flexible packaging (FP) sustainability initiatives

Page 10: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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AJ Plast: Strategies

No.1 in Southeast Asia The lowest cost producer Sustainable growth

• Offer comprehensive range of film products

• Diversify business risk and mitigate volatile

profit

One-stop service

Premium market penetration

• High value-added product

• Target Japanese market

- Massive demand of 280k MT/yr

- Premium price opportunity

- High level of quality requirement

- Technical know-how improvement

• Global shift from traditional to flexible

packaging

• Flexible packaging mainly correlates with

food and consumer product sectors, thereby

indicating sustainable & resilient demand

Flexible packaging trend

• Invest in the state-of-the-art machinery

- Increase productivity

- Reduce energy consumption

- Reduce plastic waste

- Able to produce higher grade films

• Invest at the right timing

• Gain promotional privileges (esp. tax

incentives) from the Board of Investment

Right investment

• Realize greater level of economy of scale as

the company grows

• Deepen sourcing skills to obtain advantage

of material cost minimization

Efficiency improvement

• Continuous Expansion from 2010-2018

• Achieve the largest capacity in all BO film

segments in 2014

Capacity expansion

• Cautiously expand product portfolio to be

the industry leader:

BOPP since 1987, BOPET since 1995, Metallizer

since 2001, BOPA since 2006, CPP since 2016,

and Chemical Coated Film since 2017

Portfolio enlargement

• Fully dedicate to quality excellence at all

levels of production

Quality excellence

Ho

w t

o A

ch

iev

e t

he

Go

als

Page 11: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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AJ Plast: Unique Positioning

Complete Product Line Latest Production Fleet

• AJ Plast offers customers with complete product lines for

flexible packaging including BOPP, BOPET, BOPA, CPP and

metallized film.

• Product ranges from high volume commodify products to high

value-added specialized products such as transparent barrier

films

• AJ Plast replaced old machines with smaller capacity, less

efficiency, higher production cost with new ones with larger

capacity, higher efficiency, and lower production cost at

appropriate periods.

• Currently, 70% of production capacity is coming our from

Production line with ages less than 6 years

Benefits Benefits

• One-stop supply for local and export customers

• Lower sales and administration costs per sales value

• Smoother business cycles with less volatility

• Enjoys more frequent product cycles compared with relying

on only one product cycles

• Becomes a lowest cost producer with better efficiency in both

raw material, energy consumption, and manpower

• Enhance competitiveness in local and global market

• Better quality - a ticket to enter and stay in premium market

• More flexibility to produce high value-added products

• Better spare part management – less cost and high machine

reliability

Page 12: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2005 2010 2015 2016

Export Local

38,405

Diversified customer base: To decrease reliance on any particular economy

AJ sales quantity (MT)

81,520

98,689

121,263

AJ sales mix by proportion (%)

Page 13: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Diversified customer base: To decrease reliance on any particular economy

AJ Customer Base

Reduce dependency and minimize particular country risk

Avoid anti-dumping measure enforcement

Individual country (except TH & JP) is targeted to contribute

no greater than 5% of AJ’s total sales

Taiwan

Vietnam

Japan

China

Malaysia

U.S.A. Hong Kong

Australia

Switzerland

Italy

Philippines

SingaporeIndonesia

Thailand

England

Germany

Nigeria

Mexico

Page 14: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Japan USA-Canada

Western China Near/FarEast

SouthAmerica

Eastern Africa

kg

/ y

ea

r

Po

pu

lati

on

in

th

ou

s.

Population in thous. Consump./year

BOPP film industry: Opportunity from sustained growth with recent limited expansion

The history confirms the unremitting expansion in world film demand

•Demand for BOPP production was growing stronger than expected (CAGR (1998-2014) of 8.6%

globally, 15% in China)

•Huge Market at more than 8 million MT per year

•Relatively limited capacity expansion expected in 2017-2018, leaving vulnerability in supply shortage

in the next couple years

BOPP film consumption by Region

Source: Industrial Source

Page 15: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPP film industry: Sustained growth with recent limited expansion

Source: Industrial Source

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

To

ns p

er

Year

(tp

a)

Demand Production Demand Production

BOPP WORLD Demand / Production

Page 16: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPET film industry: The worst has passed, but still need time to fully recover

•CAGR (1998 – 2014) of 7.5% for BOPET

•BOPET production capacity was increased drastically during 2011-2014,

especially in China and India causing serious global oversupply of BOPET film

•While investment in new machines was slow down since 2015, there will be at

least a couple years until the increasing demand can gradually absorb all the

production capacity

•Spread between BOPET film and PET resin will remain at low level, but will

eventually get better gradually in couple years

Page 17: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPET film industry: The worst has passed, but still need time to fully recover

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

To

ns

Demand Production Demand Production

BOPET WORLD Demand / Production

Source: Industrial Source

Page 18: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPA film industry: The Dawn of the New cycle

•In 2016, the demand of BOPA film in China was increased 15% while BOPA

production capacity expansion was not enough to serve the gradually increasing

demand

•At the same time, price of PA resin was down due to over-capacity situation of

Caprolactam which, in turn, widening the spread between BOPA film and PA

resin

•Moving to end of 2016, BOPA film was under shortage especially in China,

bumping the price up 25% in fourth quarter with lead time for delivery of 2.5-3

months.

•Lead time for new machinery including installation and commissioning is more

than 2 years with limited number of machines to be supplied by a single machine

supplier causing slow capacity expansion

Page 19: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPA film is one of the main three package materials (another two are BOPP & BOPET). The resin PA6 comes from ring opening polymerization of CPL. Through melt extruded and bio-oriented stretched it will become BOPA film. BOPA film is named as “queen of film” as its high strength, good toughness, wide range of application temperature, good resistance to acid & alkali and excellent barrier to gas & order. It’s widely used in food package, cosmetic package, electron package & field of construction chemicals.The second half year of 2015 to 2016, the price of BOPA has gone up for several times, the deliver term of orders become longer and longer, while BOPA film is getting shorter and shorter.

Why all these happened?

The direct reason is price of up steam resin going up.

The price of CPL has gone up all the way in 2016. Some analysis pointed out that it’s because of over sales of PA6, it became more and more serious to end of 2016. For example, the price of PA6 has increased 6,000-8,000 RMB/T during Nov. to Dec. 2016, price rise up to 40%.Although the price of resin going up a lot, it doesn’t affect the demand of BOPA. The price of CPL is high and short of demand, so as PA6, price of BOPA also follow to go up.

Increase demand of BOPA down steam is the important reason of BOPA price going up.

The value of gross output of the global packaging market is $ 839 billion by 2015, and is currently growing at average annual rate of nearly 5% . It is estimated that the global packaging industry will reach $ 998 billion by 2020. Global demand for plastic film is also growing at an average annual rate of 5%. Throughout the global BOPA film market, the world's largest supplier are concentrated in the Asia Pacific region, while China's annual production of BOPA has accounted for more than 30% of global production, has become the world's largest BOPA supply and demand. Demand of domestic BOPA market increased by 15% in 2016 than in 2015, growth rate is doubled compared to the previous year. The growth of BOPA demand is rapid in 2016, will continue to become main engine of global growth for BOPA film market in the future.

Japan's Unitika shuted down the factory and Foshan Plastic Group stopped the line for long term in 2015 reduced the supply of domestic BOPA in a certain extent; the world's population is increasing and it is expected to increase by 1 billion and city population by 1.1 billion in the next 10 years; living is more green, more environmentally friendly, packaging is more diversified. Independent packing is more and more popular. Except the application of traditional food packing and chemical packing, the application of lithium battery film and special nylon film will cause the increase demand of BOPA film. The increasing speed of output BOPA is slowing down, the increasing population, improve of living life and more application field are important reasons of short of BOPA.

Source: PFCHINA.COM.CN (http://www.pfchina.com.cn/00/0012/001201/2017/5379890460010.asp)

Why BOPA Film price in China are going up?

Page 21: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPA film industry: The Dawn of the New cycle

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

To

ns

Demand Production Demand Production

BOPA WORLD Demand / Production

Source: Industrial Source

Page 22: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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BOPA and BOPET Cycles: The Differences

•There are many BOPET manufacturers

around the world which could make

investment immediately once market

indicates the start of product cycles

•BOPET does not require high expertise and

knowhow to run which attracts new comers

to enter the business

•There were two BOPET production line

manufacturers (Brueckner and Dornier)

competing head-to-head so that each aims

to take as much order as they can

•Some applications could be switched

between BOPP and BOPET (although taking

some time) if price is too high

•There are fewer BOPA manufacturers

compared with BOPET/BOPP

•BOPA requires expertise and knowhow to run

efficiently with high productivity and low

waste. New comers are aware that they

may not be able to compete with existing

players

•There is only single BOPA production line

manufacturer now (Brueckner). Capacity

expansion is slow and limited. Lead time for

machine delivery is long (more than two

years from contract date to start production)

•BOPA film applications requires special

properties that are not available in BOPET or

BOPP

BOPET BOPA

Page 23: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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Market Update: Spreads Insight 2015-2017

BOPP

• BOPP has been maintaining its spread in the last 2 years with

recent small surge in the beginning of 2017 due to market

demand/supply condition.

• In medium term, there is a positive trend in the spread as

there had been only some capacity expansion in 2015-2016

and still no known expansion plan in 2017 while global

demand keep increasing at 8.6% of 8 million metric tons per

year or approximately 680k MT (equivalent to 20 latest

generation BOPP machines)

BOPET

• BOPET still remains in difficulties as spread is still considered to be

lower than other films due to huge surge in production capacity

during/after the last BOPET cycle.

• Market still needs more time to absorb the additional capacity

which will take at least another couple years. Before that,

spread for BOPET film will still be under high pressure.

Source: Chinese Industrial Source

Page 24: A.J. Plast Public Company Limited · 2018-02-26 · This presentation is not intended to substitute your own analysis and investigation, and should not be considered a recommendation

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Spread BOPA

Market Update: Spreads Insight 2015-2017

BOPA

•BOPA is a clear winner since 2H2015 – Present with continuously increasing spread trend

from USD940/mt in June 2015 to USD2750/mt in Jan 2017.

•The trend is continue to increase/maintain as there is no new capacity planned to be

coming out soon.

•There will be small capacity coming in second half of 2018 but will not be enough to serve

increasing demand in China.

Source: Chinese Industrial Source