Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System
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Transcript of Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System
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SummaryTeam
4 — with 10+ years experience in AI, Risk Analysis & marketing
2 PhD engineers, 1 PhD in Finance, 1 Marketing pro
Product
Accurate credit risk solution: help banks decrease # Non Performing Loans
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Business opportunityBoosting the accuracy of credit risk methodologies will lead to considerable gains.
Source: Issue 2 of NPL Europe, a publication overing non-performing loan (NPL) markets in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK).
Value non-performing loans - Europe
0
50
100
150
200
250
Germany UK Spain Italy Russia Greece
2008
2009
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% Corporate Debt Default - Portugal
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AIRES Accuracy
MethodClassification
Weighted Efficiency (%)
Z-score (Altman) 62.7
Best Discriminant 66.1
MLP 71.4
Our Method 84.1
Source: Vieira, A.S., Neves, J.C.: Improving Bankruptcy Prediction with Hidden Layer Learning. Vector Quantization. European Accounting Review,
15 (2), 253-271 (2006).
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AIRES Solution
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Portal AIRES today
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AIRES - recent events
PRESSDN (1 page), Sol, JN, I, S. Económico
INTERESTED PARTNERS
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AIRES benefits
Client Benefits
Accuracy – better decisions
Efficiency - Cost Reduction
Savings of Capital - Basle
Investor Benefits
Scalable
High growth potential
High return and value creation
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Market
INSURANCESBANKS
$??? Market Today Concentrated in 30 major customers Distributed among another 500
minor ones No customer has market power
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Competition
SASSage Works3i-InfotechDun & BradstreetExperianEquifaxCrediriskCoface
We use more accurate AI tools. Our user interface is more user-friendly
Decisions based on more reliable and accurate information
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Financials
Capital Employed 2011 2012 Total
Equity: 200 k€ 120 k€ = 320 k€Debt: 70 k€ = 70 k€Total 390 k€
Capital Invested:
Fixed Assets: 26 k€Working CapitalRequirements: 22 k€Development: 342 k€Total 390 k€
Pay-back: 2 YrsValue created: 10 M€
Working capital > 0 Liquidity – positiveDebt ratio < 75%
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
K E
uro
s
Sales
EBIT
Free Cash Flow
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Team
João Carvalho das Neves
Professor of Management, ISEG.
Ph.D. in Business Administration,
Manchester Business School
http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~jcneves/
Armando VieiraProfessor of Physics,
& entrepreneur. Ph.D. in Physics and
researcherin Artificial Intelligence
http://armando.sairmais.com
Bernardete Ribeiro
Associate Professor of Computer Science,
University Coimbra,
researcher at CISUC.
http://dei.uc.pt/bribeiro
Tiago Marques Marketing and
Business Consultant,E-Business Specialist
Director of Research
Business Director
IT Researcher Marketing
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ConclusionA risk-free business is impossible.
However, “risk-free” risk models may be not.
Team experienced in the sector & prototype
Product quickly in market & changes the market
Market hundred millions & growing – BASEL III
Competition manageable
Low capital requirements
high growth and value potential