DTC Low Carbon TechnologiesFaculty of Engineering

Aircraft Cost Index and the Future of

Carbon Emissions from Air Travel

Holly Edwards

PhD Researcher in Low Carbon Aviation

pmhae@leeds.ac.uk

Introduction

Aviation responsible for around 2-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions

This proportion set to rise as carbon reduction solutions cannot keep up with

demand growth

Likely scenario annual average

growth rate:

• 2010 - 2030 – 4.9% per annum

• 2030 – 2050 - 4% per annum

56,000 new aircraft required by

2040 (65% for growth)

International Civil Aviation Organisation (2013)

Cost Index

Labour Costs

Maintenance Costs

Delay Costs

Aircraft Flight Management Computer

Speed of Flight

Flight parameters e.g.

wind speed, altitude

Flight Time

Fuel Use

CO2 Emissions

Cost Index = Cost of Time ($/min)

Cost of Fuel ($/kg)

Cost Index

CO2

Fuel

Cost

Time-dependent

Cost

MRC Max CIOptimum CI

Speed of Aircraft

CI represents the cost of every kg of

extra fuel per flight minute saved

from CI = 0.

Aims

Understand the effect that Cost Index can have on emissions from

aircraft

• Six aircraft models assessed for range of CI values and

different distances

Examine how future impacts will affect Cost Index values

• Three key areas: Technology, Policy and Environmental Issues

• Use of B767-300ER aircraft to demonstrate the effect

Calculating CI and Costs

• Piano-X used to model

flights

• Mach numbers from MRC

(CI=0) and the maximum

• Fuel burn and flight time

used to calculate CI for

each Mach number

• Costs allocated for each

CI – time costs from

University of Westminster

Transport Studies Group.

• 2030 used as analysis

year

CI and Aircraft

CI Values

Average 1% saving in CO2 emissions for change in CI value

Policy

Market Based Measures

• EUETS – Aviation from 2012

• Backlash from international airlines

• EU “Stopped the Clock” on inclusion of international airlines

• ICAO agreement for global MBM in 2013

• Measure to be decided 2016, implementation from 2020

• Offsetting or cap-and-trade scheme – will include carbon prices

Policy – Effect of Carbon Price 2030

-0.04%-0.06%

Policy

Operations

• Restricted Airspace – e.g.

China

• Differential Airspace Charging

e.g. Europe

• Airspace used as political tool

e.g. Russia

• Solutions? Single European

Sky and NextGen

Zone Unit Rate (EUR)

Portugal 10.60

Belg.- Luxembourg 72.19

Germany 77.47

Finland 52.21

Netherlands 66.62

Ireland 30.77

Denmark 71.53

Norway 52.66

Poland 35.36

Malta 27.76

United Kingdom 89.26

Switzerland 100.72

Austria 73.54

European Over-flight Charges

Eurocontrol, 2014

Policy – Effect of Direct Routing 2030

-7%

Policy

Labour Regulation

• E.g. new legislation passed by European Commission in 2013 on flight

crew hours and rest times. Night flying allowance reduced by 45

minutes.

Airports

• Congestion issues, with increasing demand e.g. Heathrow third runway

debate.

Policy – Effect of Time-dependent costs 2030

+0.23%-0.3%

Environment

Jet Fuel

• In general there is an expectation that oil prices will rise

• Have to be careful that CI represents the price at origin airport

• To convert crude oil price to jet fuel price a 25% crack spread is used

Oil Price

Projections

Department for Energy and Climate Change, 2014

Environment

Climate Change Impacts on Aviation

Climate Impact Aviation Impact

Temperature Increase Changes in demand; changes in climb performance;

redistribution on noise impact; heat damage to tarmac

surfaces.

Changes in Precipitation Operational impacts: loss of capacity and efficiency;

increased delay; increased de-icing requirements;

structural issues due to changes in ground frost depth and

duration.

Increase in intensity and

frequency of convective

weather

Operational impacts: loss of capacity and efficiency,

increased delay.

Changes in wind patterns Increased crosswinds and loss of runway capacity;

redistribution of noise impact due to procedural change

Sea Level Rise Loss of network capacity; increased delays, network

disruption; temporary or permanent airport closure

International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013

Environment – Effect of Delay 2030

+0.25%+0.9%

Technology

Expected Improvements in fuel efficiency: aircraft technology

Scenario Single Aisle Twin Aisle

2020 2030 2020 2030

TS1: Continuation 23% 29% 19% 26%

TS2: Increased

Pressure

29% 34% 25% 35%

TS3: Further

Increased Pressure

41% 41%

TS3 with open rotor 48%

Relative to year 2000 technology baseline

International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013

Plus a 10% blend of biofuels in 2030

Technology

Expected Improvements in fuel efficiency: Operations

2020 2030 2040

Goal 3.25% 6.75% 9.00%

Lower Confidence Interval 2.25% 4.50% 5.75%

Relative to 2010 levels

International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013

Technology – Effect in 2030

-25%

-42%

Overall Effect on Cost Index 2030

Conclusion

Cost Index has a dual purpose:

• Contribution to the basket of measures to reduce aviation emissions

• Use as a tool to predict future factors on CO2 emissions per flight

Long haul flights show the best potential for emissions reduction

Further work/Policy:

Increased Research Policy

Optimisation of Cost Index* Correct implementation of a market based

measure

Climate change impacts on aviation Consideration of alternative incentive

schemes for climate change mitigation

Assessment of different aircraft models* Risk mitigation for future impacts to reduce

delay

Network effects* Stakeholder collaboration desperately

needed

Thank you

pmhae@leeds.ac.uk