Air quality modelling in Croatia and how useful is Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

Sonja VidičHead, Air Quality Research, Modelling and Applications Department

User workshop, Zagreb, 13-14 November 2018

LONDON 1952. – Great smog

How it all begun ….

How it all begun ….

Before 1974: Governmental decision on sitting criteria and conditions for building large industrial facilities and thermal power plants (Zagreb TPP I, TPP II, TPP Rijeka I; 200-240 m)

1974: Regulation on obligatory environmental impact studies for large industrial sources and thermal power plants, revised in 1985.

US experience and US regulations(Clean Air Act 1970)

Nuclear Power Plants Sitting (3 sites examined, 1980-1987)

Second generation PP – mid eighties

Extensive use of point source dispersion models

to define optimal stack height (Zagreb, 1970-

1972, Rijeka 1974, Plomin 1980, Zenica, BIH

1986) and concentration distribution arround

sources

Field experiments and measurement campaigns

to support and verify models, to analyse

meteorological and air pollution conditions – until

1987-1988

1986 – University of Zagreb – more intensive

education on air quality modelling

1996 – Private companies and institutes:

standard to routinely use US EPA Gaussian

regulatory models

2006 – Regional, complex air pollution modelling

Policy demands ….

Gaussiandispersion modelling

Boundary layer meteorology, stability, dispersion

A B C D E F G

Very unstable

Very stable

Moderately stable

NeutralModerately unstable

Slightly unstable

Slightly stable

∂C/∂t = - ∂(uC)/∂x - ∂(vC)/∂y - ∂(wC)/∂z

Factors determining Air Quality

Ready for action ….

tethered baloon

profile measurements

computing evolution….

Late 70-ties and 80-ties

Mid 80-ties until mid 90-ties

early 90-ties til mid 2000

mid 2000 onwards

2006 onwards multiprocessing

from 24 to 280 processors

2010 onwards supercomputing

ECMWFHPC

HP-97 table calculator

University computing centreSRCE

XTAT PCs

PCs

• Regional MACC domain

– [-15°,35°] x [35°,70°]

– resolution: 0.5° x 0.25°

– Boundary conditions

• Zoom mod over Croatia

– [13°,20°] x [42°,47°]

– resolution: 0.125° x 0.0625°

5

LOTOS-EUROS, EMEP Domain

MAPS OF MEAN ANNUAL CONCENTRATIONS

PM10

PM2.5

NO₂

O₃

January 2017

Total PM10 concentrations

Meteorological and Hydrological Service (MHSC)

Measurement sites

New Stations Phare 2006

Zavižan

Višnjan

Dugi otok

Komiža Delta Neretve Dubrovnik Žarkovica

Plitvička jezera

Ravni kotari

Kopački rit

Bilogora

Desinić Risnjak/Parg

Verification of results – PM10

Max 8-hr ozone rural sites

Hourly ozone - rural sites

…. And where we are now

FAIRMODE management practices- pilot project -

Idea is to:

• Promote an efficient use of the methodological approaches and guidance developed in FAIRMODE

• Support and improve the use of modelling for air quality management practices

What do we use and benefit from Copernicus/CAMS

• Meteorological fields (EU domain IFS)

• Boundary conditions

• EMEP, TNO Emission data

• High performance computer resources

• Trainings/education of scientists

“Air pollution problems that can be handled by national

legislation or by international agreements between the

European countries range from urban and local to the regional

and long range air pollution problems. The lifetimes of the

chemical components that are largely determined by the

European air pollution policy are up to a few days. Components

with longer lifetimes must be considered in an intercontinental or global perspective.”

Instead of the conclusion

Needs for models

METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICEHead, Air Quality Research, Modelling and Applications Department

Thank you for your attention!