Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives · Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:...
Transcript of Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives · Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:...
Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives
Andrew Herdman
Director General
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
17-18 November 2015 Hong Kong
Aviation: moving the world
• Air travel delivers global mobility
• Over 3 billion passengers
• 9 million per day
• Carries 35% by value of global trade
• Goods worth US$6.4 trillion
• Wider social and economic benefits
• Outstanding safety record
• Committed to sustainable growth
Source: ATAG
Asia Pacific
• Diverse geographic region
• Home to 4 billion people
• 56% of world population
• Generates 31% of global GDP
• Wide range of income levels, strong growth in
middle class spending
• Dynamic economies still driving global growth
• Political diversity remains challenging: need for
multilateral cooperation
• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor
to economic and social development
Source: IMF 2015
Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
US$176 billion revenue
US$1 billion net loss
1,106 million passengers
791 million domestic
315 million international
20 million tonnes of cargo
6,284 aircraft
Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:
31% of global passenger traffic
38% of global cargo traffic
Asia Pacific Aviation 2014
Data: Financials & Traffic: 2014
Still a two-speed global economy
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2015
Comparison of year-on-year GDP growth
History Forecast
Global economic growth:
2014: 3.4%
2015: 3.1%
2016: 3.6%
Global passenger and cargo traffic
• Robust growth in passenger demand
• Air cargo markets remain fragile
• Inter-dependent supply: belly & freighter
Source: IATA
Added Cargo Capacity
• Belly space follows passenger growth
• Diminished requirement for freighters Source: IATA
Air Cargo Load Factor Trend
• Low utilization reflects directional flows and
superfluous belly space
• Capacity growth exceeds actual growth in demand
Source: IATA
Impact of lower oil prices
Source: US EIA
Jet fuel prices averaging $67 per barrel
compared to $113 last year … reflecting
plentiful supply
Global airline industry profitability
Stronger financial performance driven by robust
passenger demand and significant drop in fuel
prices, but cargo performance still weak
Source: IATA
Long term demand for freighters
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
Belly space gains share, but
demand for freighters still grows
Long term demand for freighters
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
Asia Pacific freighter
fleet growth
Emerging markets growing middle class
Source: Airbus GMF 2015-2034
Changing global spending patterns
Share of total world private consumption (%)
Source: Airbus GMF 2015-2034
Air Cargo Industry Priorities
• Air cargo revenues ~ $60 billion
• Contributes ~ 9% of overall airline revenues
• Equivalent to 1% fee on value of goods transported
Source: IATA Cargo Strategy 2015
www.aapairlines.org
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
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Tel: +60 3 2162 1888
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Air Cargo & Global Trends Asia Pacific Perspectives
Andrew Herdman
Director General
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
17-18 November 2015 Hong Kong