Vania Ceccato School of Architecture and the Built Environment

Royal Institute of Technology

Lars DolmenThe Swedish National Police Academy

Jönköping, 14th October 2010

Social uthållighet i den svenska glesbygden

brott, upplev oro för brott och brottsförebyggande i glesbygdssamhällen

Social sustainability in rural Sweden: crime, perceived safety and crime

preventionGrant 251-2007-1954

1) investigating how crime levels in rural municipalities reflect the demographic and socio-economic changes that have been taking place during the last decade.

2) looking for patterns of perception of safety in rural communities.

3) assessing differences and/or similarities in crime prevention measures in a group of rural communities.

The aim of this project is to assess crime, perceived safety and crime prevention practices as dimensions of social sustainability in Swedish rural communities.

This will be achieved by:

Environment

Economic Social

Safety

1. Crime in rural areas

2. Perceived safety

3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Remote Rural Acessible Rural Urban Areas

Cri

me

ra

tes

pe

r 1

0 0

00

inh

ab

itan

ts

1996

2007

Remote Rural

Accessible Rural

Urban Areas

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

1996 1997 1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tot

al c

rime

per

10 0

00 in

habi

tant

s (in

dex=

100)

AR = 776 to 982 crimes per 10.000 inhabitants 1996-2007

Changes in offences 1996 to 2007

Remote Rural – RR (%)

Accessible Rural - AR (%)

Urban Area – UA (%) Sweden (%)

All offences 33,1 26,5 12,9 17,0 Violence 119,0 85,9 58,6 66,2 Assault women 108,1 76,7 44,8 53,3 Assault unknown outdoors 121,4 108,3 74,6 83,3 Theft -12,4 -11,9 -21,5 -20,2 Burglary 17,1 12,2 -3,7 -2,4 Car theft 8,2 -32,8 -50,2 -48,5 Theft from motor vehicle 3,3 -9,5 -32,5 -29,9 Robbery 21,3 63,8 49,2 43,9 Burglary in cellar or attic -64,5 -18,3 -60,2 -57,8 Theft from stores -10,9 -5,0 -9,2 -8,6 Drug offences -2,4 221,7 138,0 158,4 Criminal damage 52,8 53,9 54,1 56,9

Offences per 100 000 inhabitants

A municipality’s crime levels and its underlying criminogenic conditions

Population shifts affect density of acquaintanceship

Causal factor Criminogenic condition Offence outcome

Socio-economic instability,‘normalessness’, less social control

Pop inflow/outflow,daily commuters/ temporary visitors: more thefts & violence

Age composition affect socialinteraction

Young male pop, potentially more offendersElderly, more guardianshipWorking pop, less guardianship

Young male pop: more offencesElderly: less offences

Dem

ogra

phy

Inequality in the distribution of economic resources

Poverty, e.g., as a result inChange of family structureSo

cio-

econ

omic

co

ndit

ions Anomy, socio-economic

exclusion may motivateindividuals towards crime

More violenceMore property crimes

Consumption of goods, media, internet

Alcohol consumption, premises selling alcohol

Lif

e st

yle

More goods, more targetsMore sites where motivated offenders and potential targets interact, e.g., Internet

Changes in social interactions,more alcohol selling premises

More property crimes,

Cyber crimes

More violence, domestic and in public

Accessible rural areas are at higher risk than remote ones

Lan

d us

e/lo

cati

on

Easier movement of goods and people, difficult to detect

Quick exit from the scene of the crime, greater commuting

flows, higher pop density

Some offences committedby short time visitors. Smuggling

lead to other illegal activities

More property crimesMore violence

Dynamics of the border(Norway, Denmark, Finland, Baltic sea)

Glo

bal,

nati

onal

, reg

iona

l and

loca

l con

text

ual f

acto

rse.

g., w

elfa

re s

tate

, reg

iona

l pol

icy,

pol

icin

g

Crime will take place in rural areas where ...

Theft 1996

Theft 2007

Violence 1996

Violence 2007

OLS Spatial Error OLS OLSYoungMale .1045** .0466 .0650 .1646***

(2.45) (1.24) (.896) (2.61)Divorce .1664*** .1116*** .1480*** .1373***

(5.70) (4.98) (2.98) (4.80)Foreigner -.0129 -.0119 .0074 .0093

(-1.53) (-1.45) (.514) (.911)Unemp .0052 .0728*** .0262 .0614

(.427) (2.86) (1.26) (1.84)PopIncrease -.0002 .0004*** -.0003 .0002

(-.163) (3.50) (1.186) (1.10)Income .0006 .0022 .0048 .0036

(.262) (1.45) (.129) (1.64)VoterTurnout .0009 -.0072 -.0189 .0012

(.107) (-.988) (-1.30) (.111)Demo .0372 -.0214 .0669 .1058

(.609) (-.620) (.643) (1.90)Police .0313* .0295** .0630** .0831***

(1.95) (2.01) (2.31) (3.43)AlcoServ .0077*** .0080*** .0079** .0055**

(3.76) (5.13) (2.79) (2.28)AlcoPurch .0909 .1720** .1332** -.0379

(1.47) (2.42) (1.27) (-.363)PopDens .0018 .0003 .0018 -.0016

Border(1.54)-.0478

(.038)-.1339***

(.895)-.0122

(-1.23)-.0340

(-.996) (-3.04) (-.149) (-.564)Triangle .1519*** .0639 .2260*** .0920

(2.99) (.928) (2.62) (1.44)Accessible Rural .1065 .2320*** .0658 .1794**

(1.44) (3.77) (.521) (1.98)R-square .5127 .5910 .3412 .3780AIC 21.420 -13.516 208.458 93.884Log Likelihood 5.289 22.758 -88.229 -30.942Schwarz criterion

72.148 37.211 259.186 144.612

Moran’s I on residuals

-.004 -.139 .027 -.005

Notes: t and z-values with brackets, respectively. *** Significant at the 1 per cent level; ** significant at the 5 per cent level; * significant at the 10 per cent level

•proportion of young male population

•alcohol-selling premises

•characteristics of family structure

•Accessible rural areas

•Southern Sweden

“Crime rates are found higher where urban criminogenic conditions emerge, not necessarily in urban areas; but in settings that have strong links with urban centres – Accessible rural areas.”

1. Crime in rural areas

2. Perceived safety

3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

Nationella Trygghetsundersökningen, NTU

Syfte

2005 - 2008

n = 20 000 (10 000) / år

16-79 år

Bortfall, 22 – 30 %

Lund 10%Malmö 30%

Overall fear Fear in the neighbourhood

Fear affects behaviour

OLS OLS OLS

Pop Increase -.000006 .00006** . 00004*

Unemployment -.008 .0006** .0003

Income .0002 .0009* .0005*

VoterTurnout .0002 -.002* .001

Witness -.153 .092* .010

FamilyVictim .087 .017 .145***

Victim .155** .096*** .074**

Urban area .049** .058*** .034***

Accessible rural

.046** .037*** .017*

R-square .118 .325 .285

OLS results – Y = Perceived fear

Data: National Victimisation Survey, 2006, 2007, 2008

1. Crime in rural areas

2. Perceived safety

3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)

What is crime prevention in rural areas in Sweden?

How do they work? To what extent crime prevention groups are part of the local community organisation?

Do they differ between types of municipalities/parts of Sweden?

CRIME PREVENTION IN SWEDEN IS DOMINATED BY ”BIG CITY PROBLEMS”

EXISTENT TOOLS ARE NOT FIT TO ASSESS ”RURAL CONTEXT”

High crime

Low crime

New economyOld Economy

Arvika (North)Markaryd (South)

Åre (North)Gotland (South)

Dorotea (North)Gnosjö (South)

Storuman (North)Söderköping (South)

No. of face-to-face Interviews: 48 - from Police officers to NGOsInterviews were performed between March and May 2010

Half are active Local Crime Prevention Groups (LCPG)

“…handlar om social kontroll. Det är i särklass den bästa brottsförebyggande effekten som vi har i det lilla samhället, närvaro och alla känner alla” (Police inspector, Southern Sweden)

”…det här med att skapa god kontakt mellan barn och vuxna” (Head of CP group, Southern Sweden)

”… gäller ju både droger, kriminalitet och våld, både inom nära relationer och utåt på olika platser” (Social care, Northern Sweden)

”.... brottsförebyggande är väldigt mycket. Vi jobbar med integration och flyktingar för jag känner att väldigt mycket av det är också ett arbete förebyggande mot hedersvåld och liknande” (NGO, Southern Sweden)

Crime prevention groups aim at co-ordinating actions between local actors (limited to public spaces, often within municipalities boundaries)

Actions in rural communities

• Youth problems and drug/alchool related problems – priority (storstads problem?)

•Crime prevention groups in rural areas show indications of being well prepared to deal with minor common youth problems “Alla vårt ansvar”

•have a stronger impact on social life of youngsters than they would have had in bigger cities because of the smaller supply of social activities in rural areas (church, ungdomsgård, etc)

• Institutionalized actions more than product of “eldsjälar” (sectoral) Homogenous structure – why are not farmers in CP, for example?---- power in the community, conflicts of interest

”Jag bor 12,5 mil härifrån. Så jag bor hos min far och på station i veckorna. Det är en liten kommun men lite speciellt för vi har två näpoområden. Men det är ju många mil emellan, så det är en naturlig del i det. (Police officer, Northern Sweden)

“Det är en annan syn här på alkoholen. Attityden….. Ja, kommer du på ett föräldramöte och lägger upp det på fel sätt så kan du bli ordentligt utskälld alltså. Så det gäller att verkligen tänka sig för hur man ska säga saker (Mental care advisor, Northern Sweden)

•Geographical, economic and cultural barriers limit the work of those involved in CP in North and South Sweden

• Actions are little evidence-based, many projects are copied from elsewhere

• Although CP covers large areas, little co-operation with external actors – differencesbetween Northern and Southern municipalities

• New economy municipalities – Police officers in these areas are more focused on the temporary problems

Future research questions

Accessible rural is a space in transition – these communities are tied up with traditional economy and life styles but are now facing new problems

Challenges to :

•To re-think ”rural” not as a ”non-urban” in terms of risk for crime and perceived safety

•Safety in rural communities has to be adressed with focus on individual groups: We need to know what young people, elderly, women, minorities ... think!!!

•Environmental crimes have to be an issue for future research. Poor official statistics

•Domestic violence in rural areas is an area that has also been neglected. NTU data & policestatistics are not able to produce a regional and more local picture

•To better understand Crime Prevention actions in rural areas their role to improve safety in rural communities and overall impact on community lifeTo what extent social capital affects CP’s performance?

Thank you!

New school bus is vandalised by students between Klimpfjäll and Vilhelmina. After this experience, the bus driver is concerned about his own safety, reported Västerbotten-Kuriren.

Another event occurred in Säter, Dalarna, where a serious crime against the environment took place, after four males dumped and burned 200 hundred litres of explosive fluid close to water reservoirs, reported the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter .

In a more extreme account, the same newspaper reported the case of a young man who admitted to kill his wife, dumping her body in an oil tank in Teckomatorp, in Southern Sweden.

In central Sweden, Dalarnas Tidningar , had an article on a 25 year old male that admitted to assault physically another male in Vansbro, causing facial fractures and bleeding.

Not far away, in Strömsund, parents started an association that together with the Police and school is intended to decrease alcohol consumption among local teenagers and young people‘

These events took place in 2007 in the heart of the Swedish rural areas.

Safety and the rural areas

• Rural crime rates are lower than in urban areas• Most people live in urban areas

Why should we care?

• Bigger impact of crimes in rural communities• About 2 million people live in some sort of rural areas• Changes in pop structure and flows• Safety is an important dimension of sustainability of communties

Safety as a dimension of social sustainabilityin rural Sweden

Environment

Economic Social

Safety

A sustainable community is “a place free from the fear of crime, from crime,where a feeling of security underpins a wider sense of place attachment and place attractiveness”.

Raco (2007:306)

Sent by email to CP representatives in rural areas

78 rural municipalities

Five hypothetical scenarious

Youth related problems, ethnic related violence, domestic violence, organised crimeand environmental offences

• Actions are little evidence-based, many projects are copied

• Although CP covers large areas, little co-operation beyond municipal borders or with external actors

• New economy municipalities – CP deals with seasonality challenges without major disruption in daily routinePolice officers in these areas are more focused on the temporary problems

Actions in rural communities

”Vi försöker göra lite sånt inför sommarens oreda. Där är det ju många aktörer att samordna, det handlar om alkoholservering, information om alkoholförtäringsförbudet som finns i X, det måste finnas en fungerande tillnyktringsenhet, det handlar om polisiära patrulleringsinsatser, tillsyn av krogar, m.m. Utifrån det har vi varje vår haft serier med möten inland många och ibland kortare överläggningar. Där vi mobiliserar inför sommaren, medvetandegör varann, koll på resurserna inför sommaren. Sen har vi alltid ett summeringsmöte efter sommaren”

(Safety coordinator)