Aida_econometria_MCO_(2015.09.08)

7/17/2019 Aida_econometria_MCO_(2015.09.08)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/aidaeconometriamco20150908 1/17

Años Y*X x^2

2001 2,299.77 12,820.70 $ 29,484,661 $ 5,288,942

2002 2,507.96 12,695.50 $ 31,839,806 $ 6,289,863

2003 2,877.50 13,881.70 $ 39,944,592 $ 8,280,006

2004 2,626.22 16,764.20 $ 44,026,477 $ 6,897,031

2005 2,320.77 21,204.20 $ 49,210,071 $ 5,385,973

2006 2,357.98 26,162.40 $ 61,690,416 $ 5,560,070

2007 2,078.35 32,897.00 $ 68,371,480 $ 4,319,539

2008 1,966.26 39,665.80 $ 77,993,276 $ 3,866,178

2009 2,156.29 32,891.10 $ 70,922,750 $ 4,649,587

2010 1,897.89 40,485.60 $ 76,837,215 $ 3,601,986

Sumatorias 23,088.99 249,468.20 $ 550,320,745 $54,139,176

n.o observ. 10

Fórmula

m b

- 30.971278770 96,456.3745816

stima!i"# !ura

Años %m&orta!io#'s (Y)

2001 $ 2,299.77 $ 25,2302002 $ 2,507.96 $ 18,782

2003 $ 2,877.50 $ 7,337

2004 $ 2,626.22 $ 15,119

2005 $ 2,320.77 $ 24,579

2006 $ 2,357.98 $ 23,427

2007 $ 2,078.35 $ 32,087

2008 $ 1,966.26 $ 35,559

2009 $ 2,156.29 $ 29,673

2010 $ 1,897.89 $ 37,676

2011 $ 2,800.00 $ 9,737

asa +' !ambio&rom'+io a#ua

(X)

%m&orta!io#'s (Y)('# mi's +'

mio#'s)

-u'#t's %m&orta!io#'s s'/# !asi!a!i"# %% '. 3 2000 2015 (u#io) (tt&.+a#'./o.!o)* S'ri' 'm&ama+a +' +"ar 'sta+ou#i+'#s'S'ri' +' +atos &rom'+io a#ua (tt&.ba#r'&./o.!o)


(X)

=+

Se aplia la !órmulareempla"an#o a#a

Se esima el valorimporaiones par2011, por e&emploasa #e ambio pr#e $2.800



1,800.00 2,000.00 2,200.00 2,400.00 2,600.000.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

!'() * - 30.9712787703( + 96456.3745815571

* 0.7319569686

.mpor$aiones '/) 'en miles #e millon

#ao

e lasel a%o

on uname#io anual

n el e&eriio, se relaiona la asa #e ambio on las imporaolombianas #es#e el a%o 2001 al a%o 2010.

Sen los resula#os, por a#a peso ue aumena en la asaambio 'variable o in#epen#iene, pesos por a#a #ólar), #iel valor #e las imporaiones 'variable / o #epen#iene) en 30millones #e pesos 'valor #e m*-30,971). l valor #el 2 'oeiene #e #eerminaión) #e 0,732 aevariables / sea e(plia#a por #e manera siniaiva 'buennmero in#ia u an bien se a&usa la l:nea #e reresión a lo'la l:nea rea en el r;o a los #aos).



2,800.00 3,000.00

s)

iones

#eminuemil

ue la). ses #aos



Años %m&orta!io#'s (Y) Y*X x^2

2001 2,299.8 12,820.7 $ 29,484,661 $ 5,288,942

2002 2,508.0 12,695.5 $ 31,839,806 $ 6,289,863

2003 2,877.5 13,881.7 $ 39,944,592 $ 8,280,006

2004 2,626.2 16,764.2 $ 44,026,477 $ 6,897,031

2005 2,320.8 21,204.2 $ 49,210,071 $ 5,385,973

2006 2,358.0 26,162.4 $ 61,690,416 $ 5,560,070

2007 2,078.4 32,897.0 $ 68,371,480 $ 4,319,539

2008 1,966.3 39,665.8 $ 77,993,276 $ 3,866,178

2009 2,156.3 32,891.1 $ 70,922,750 $ 4,649,587

2010 1,897.9 40,485.6 $ 76,837,215 $ 3,601,986

Sumatorias $ 23,089 $ 249,468 $ 550,320,745 $ 54,139,176

n.o observ. 10

prom 24946.82 *a+b(

m b

-30.9712787703 96456.374581557

sb1 6.6263386784 15418.05006191 sb0

r2 0.7319569686 6033.3547998875 rror esan#ar#

F 21.8459540544 8 <-=-1

S> 795222659.6254 291210961.1306 S>

10.1649264362

F? sa#:sio para aer el onrase #e nuli#a# #e o#os los oeienes anulares

m b

- 30.971278770 96,456.3745816 $ 96,456.3745816

r2 0.731956969

stima!i"# !ura :;

%m&orta!io#'s (Y) <(='st=m'+)^2

$ 2,299.77 $ 25,229.56 79,940

$ 2,507.96 $ 18,781.65 38,009,367

$ 2,877.50 $ 7,336.52 310,122,669

$ 2,626.22 $ 15,118.98 96,586,383

$ 2,320.77 $ 24,579.16 135,174

$ 2,357.98 $ 23,426.72 2,310,708

$ 2,078.35 $ 32,087.22 50,985,274


(X)

-u'#t's %m&orta!io#'s s'/# !asi!a!i"# %% '. 3 2000 2015 (u#io) (tt&.+a#'./o.!o)* S'ri' 'm&ama+a +' +"ar 'sta+ou#i+'#s'S'ri' +' +atos &rom'+io a#ua (tt&.ba#r'&./o.!o)

asa +' !ambio

&rom'+io a#ua(X)



$ 1,966.26 $ 35,558.79 112,613,865

$ 2,156.29 $ 29,673.32 22,339,763

$ 1,897.89 $ 37,676.29 162,039,516

$ 2,800.00 $ 9,736.79 795,222,660



<(==m'+)^2

147,042,786.3

150,094,841.7

122,436,880.6

66,955,270.1

14,007,204.5

1,477,634.7

63,205,362.0

216,648,372.2

63,111,584.7

241,453,683.9

1,086,433,621

1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.00.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

35,000.0

40,000.0

45,000.0

!'() * - 30.9712787703( + 96456.3745815571 * 0.7319569686

.mpor$aiones '/)



2,800.0 3,000.0



Funión @enesiana #e onsumo * A1+ A2

*+

Aida_econometria_MCO_(2015.09.08)

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