Aid for Trade for SPECA Countries

Jean-Jacques HallaertSenior Trade Policy Analyst

Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

Ministerial Conference“Aid for Trade Roadmap for SPECA”

Baku, AzerbaijanDecember1-2, 2010

What is the OECD involvement?

4) Monitor aid-for-trade flows & commitments

1) Promote coherence between aid and trade

2) Enhance donor co-ordination and alignment

3) Maximize aid effectiveness

• An important contribution of the OECD• Aid for Trade at a glance reports• Using the Creditor Reporting System

(CRS)• AfT data can be extracted online• The focus of this presentation

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Monitoring Aid for TradeMonitoring Aid for Trade

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DEMAND RESPONSE OUTCOME IMPACT

• Partner country assessment

i.e. Questionnaires

• Donor assessment

i.e. Questionnaires

and

• Trade performance

• Economic growth

• Poverty reduction

• Development indicators

OECD/CRS Case stories Case stories

AfT commitments reached USD 41.7 bn. in 2008

Source: OECD/CRS (millions of 2008 US$)

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Asia is the largest recipient…

2008: + USD 5.3 bn

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……but is SPECA marginalized ?but is SPECA marginalized ?

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DISBURSEMENTS

SPECA countries: less than 5% percent of global flows.

Excluding Afghanistan: only 1.4%.

COMMITMENTS

A risk: the marginalization of the region.

In real terms, Aid for Trade increased in 2008 by:

• +35% World• +40% Asia• +8% only for SPECA

AND declined by 16% for the region if Afghanistan is excluded.

Donors priority

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Source: 2009 DAC REPORT ON AID PREDICTABILITY

Aid for Trade in SPECA (1)Aid for Trade in SPECA (1)

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Aid for Trade in SPECA (2)Aid for Trade in SPECA (2)SPECA countries attract

5% of global AfT flows (2002-2008) o/w Afghanistan = 3% Is it a good performance?

AFT per capita(2002-2008 in 2008 USD)

SPECA (all) 70SPECA (excl. AFG) 29________________________ALL recipient countries 26ALL (excluding SPECA) 25

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Different metrics can be used AFT per capita is one of them

SPECA as a region is rather successful

Only Turkmenistan (2$) and Uzbekistan (10$) receive less than world average

But is this Aid effective?

Does it meet the needs?

Does it target the most binding constraints to trade expansion?

What did AfT to SPECA finance? (1)

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Sectoral allocation: what did AfT to SPECA finance? (2)

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Looking forward:Donors’ commitments

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• The logic of AfT Initiative– Starts with partners’ demand.– Donors committed to respond

(alignment)

• Demand is crucial– Need to mainstream trade in

development strategy– Let the donor community know

• The Roadmap is very important• Answer the OECD/WTO

questionnaires and case stories– Very high profile– Will be part of the AFT at a glance

2011– Centrepiece of the WTO Global

Review on AFT in July 2011 where all donors (and more) will gather.

Partner country Donors

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What can be done to attractmore AfT?

DEMAND RESPONSE

Conclusions• SPECA as a region is rather successful in attracting AFT despite substantial

differences across countries.• But there is a risk of marginalization.• And there is scope to increase inflows of AfT.• This requires

– Mainstreaming trade in development strategy– Letting the world know what the region’s needs are:

• The AfT Roadmap is a crucial step• Answer the OECD/WTO questionnaires and submit case stories

• This will help orient donor support– Where it is needed– And increase its effectiveness i.e. its impact.

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Further information• Questionnaires: www.oecd.org/dac/aft/questionnaire

• Case stories: www.oecd.org/dac/aft/casestories

• Aid for Trade in 2008: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/45/17/45468870.pdf

• Aid for Trade Statistical Queries: http://www.oecd.org/document/21/0,3343,en_2649_34665_43230357_1_1_1_1,00.html

• OECD/WTO: “Aid for Trade at a Glance 2009”: http://www.oecd.org/document/56/0,3343,en_2649_34665_42835064_1_1_1_1,00.html#statistics

• Aid for Trade web page: www.oecd.org/dac/trade/aft

• “Binding Constraints to Trade Expansion: Aid for Trade Objectives and Diagnostic Tools” (OECD Trade Policy Working Paper #94):

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=546100 http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2009doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT0000701E/$FILE/JT03275544.PDF

• “Increasing the Impact of Trade Expansion on Growth: Lessons from Trade Reforms for the Design of Aid for Trade” (OECD Trade Policy Working Paper #100):

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=546100 http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/displaydocumentpdf/?cote=com/dcd/tad(2010)4/

final&doclanguage=en