AI and Strategy

OutlineofRemarksI.  StrategicApplica8ons

Strategicconcepts;AIapplica8ons

II.  StrategicCompe88onU.S.,China,Others

III.  StrategicEnvironmentArmsracing,Offense-defense,Socialdimension

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“Theconvergenceofthear/ficialintelligencerevolu/onandthereemergenceofgreatpowercompe//onmustfocustheAmericanmind.”Firstsentence,InterimReportoftheNa/onalSecurityCommissiononAr/ficialIntelligence,November2019

I / Strategic Concepts

•  StrategyDefini8ons• DimensionsofStrategy•  Logis8cal•  Opera8onal•  Sociological•  Technological

Clausewitz“theuseofengagementsfortheobjectofwar”

Hart“theartofdistribu8ngandapplyingmilitarymeanstofulfilltheendsofpolicy”

Howard“thedeploymentanduseofarmedforcestoaUainagivenpoli8calobjec8ve”

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I / Strategic Concepts

•  StrategyDefini8ons• DimensionsofStrategy• GrandStrategy•  Broaderaspectsofwar•  Inversionofconquestanddefeat•  Technologicalv.socialdimensions

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I / AI Applica6ons

• AIisPower•  Tac8calApplica8ons•  Autonomouscontrol•  ISR,targetiden8fica8on•  BaUlefieldmanagement

• Opera8onalDecision-making•  Situa8onalawareness•  Riskanalysis

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I / AI Applica6ons

•  StrategicInfluences•  Tac8calandopera8onalimpacts•  Commandandcontrol•  Limitedgraspofhumanmeanings•  Challengeoftrust

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II / United States

• Policydirec8on•  Clearaccelera8on•  Strategyofinclusion

• Resourcing•  USG+privatesector

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II / China

•  “Sputnikmoment”• Policydirec8on

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II / China

•  “Sputnikmoment”• Policydirec8on• Militaryapplica8ons•  Socialimplementa8on

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II / US-China Area U.S. China

AIResearchers“Top”Researchers(H-index)

28,5365,158(18%)

18,232977(5%)

“Top”AIResearcherPh.D.Source 44% 11%

PublishedPapersImpact(FWCI) 1.83(83%>avg.) 0.94(6%<avg.)

CapitalResourcing(VC+PE) $16.9billion $13.5billion

HighlyCitedAIPatents(1960-2018) 28,031 691

FirmsAdop8ng/Pilo8ngAI 22%/29% 32%/53%

GDPPayoffProjec8on2030 $3.7trillion(14.5%) 7.0trillion(26.1%)

Semiconductors:#FirmsTop15Sales#FirmsTop10R&D#FirmsDesigningAIChips

6555

1026

#SupercomputersinTop500 92 219

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II / US-China

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II / US-China

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Field-weighted citation impact, 1998–2016

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II / US-China Data(2018) U.S. China

IoTData(TBmillions) 69 152

BroadbandSubscrip8ons(millions) 109.8 394.2

MobilePayments(millions/percent) 55.0(20%) 525.1(45%)

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II / Others

•  EuropeanUnion• Russia• Otheractors?•  Asymmetricpowerdiffusion

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III / Arms Race

• Percep8onofU8lity• PrematureDeployment• ArmsControl?

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III / Offense-Defense Balance

•  SharedApplica8ons• UncertainApplica8ons• OpaqueApplica8ons

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III / Sociological Dimension

•  IntrinsicFactorofStrategy• ColdWarExpression•  StrategyintheInforma8onAge

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“Eachofusisconvincedofourinability,withintheconfinesofourrespec9vefieldsofexper9se,tofullyanalyzeafutureinwhichmachineshelpguidetheirownevolu9on.”•  HenryKissinger,formerU.S.SecretaryofStateandNa8onalSecurityAdvisor•  EricSchmidt,ChairmanoftheDoDInnova8onBoard;formerCEOandExecu8veChairmanofGoogleandAlphabet.

•  DanielHu@enlocher,InauguralDean,SchwarzmanCollegeofCompu8ng,MassachuseUsIns8tuteofTechnology.

“TheMetamorphosis,”TheAtlan/c,August2019

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