Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological Regime of Kali Gandaki Basin
Agusan River Basin Hydrological Modeling
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Transcript of Agusan River Basin Hydrological Modeling
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Main Supervisor: Prof. YAMASHITA Takao
Sub-Supervisors: a. Prof. HIGO Yasushib. Assoc. Prof.
KAWAMURA Kensuke
BATINCILA GlennM102607
Philippines
1
ydrological Modeling of the Agusan River Basin in
Mindanao with Projected Climate Change and
Land Use Change Scenarios
H
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Outline
1. Background
2. Objectives of the Study
3. Methodology
4. Data Sources
5. Results
6. Conclusion
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- Agricultural production, availability of water supply and many
other hydrological processes are likely to be impacted by climate change (Gleick, 1987, Revelle and Waggoner,1983)
- The Philippines is one of the most disaster prone countries in the
world (World Bank and National Disaster Coordination Council (NDCC), 2004).
- 20 typhoons hit the country annually (WB).
Background
- Projections from the IPCC show significant global warming and
alterations in frequency and amount of precipitation from year 2000 to 2100 (Hengeveld, 2000; Le Treut et al., 2007; Mearns et al.,2007)
- Understanding changes in spatial and temporal variations of runoff in a large river basin is important to develop measures for mitigating potential negative impacts.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tropical_cyclones_1945_2006_wikicolor.png
Scenario AIB Scenario B1
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2011 January 04
2011 February 02
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January 04, 2011 Gage Height
February 02, 2011 Gage Height
1968 January 17, Gage Height =6.68 m
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Butuan City: Area - Total 817.28 km2, Population (2010) - 309,709 (379/km2)
West Bank Flood Wall –Completed CY 1999 West Bank Flood Wall –Completed 2007
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Tributary Contribution
Point SourceNon-Point Source
Withdrawal
Spillway
Inflows:TributariesPoint sourcesNonpoint source
Spillways
Withdrawal
Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF)
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1. To create a watershed hydrological model
2. To investigate streamflow responses at
various
climate change and land use change
scenarios
Objectives of the Study
3. To help policy makers and planners assess
and
manage the impacts of climate and land
use change.
…In the Agusan River Basin
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Methodology
1. Data Preparation for Hydrological Model
2. Model Generation and Calibration
3. Future Scenarios Generation
4. Analysis of Impact and
Vulnerability
+ Recommendation
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Data Sources
1. Physical watershed-specific data
- Digital Elevation Model from USGS
HydroSHEDS
- Land Cover Data from GlobCover
2. Meteorological Data
- Precipitation data from TRMM satellite
- Observed Temperature data from PAGASA
3. River Discharge Observation Data from the
DPWH– BRS
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- HydroSHEDS (Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales)- TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) - PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration)- DPWH-BRS (Department of Public Works and Highways-Bureau of Research and Standards
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The Study Area
Provinces : 8 Cities: 3 Municipalities: 23Barangays: 426 Population: 732,359 Popl’n Density: 64 Persons per Sq. km No. of households: 141,894
River Basin Area km2.
1. Cagayan
27,712
2. Cotabato
20,065
3. Agusan
11,979
4. Pampanga
9,488
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1
4
3
2- 45 %
- 18 %
- 37 %
- 0.12 %
- 0.48 %
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Digital Elevation Model
Sub-Watersheds, Streams and Observation Stations
- Observation Stations- Streams
Processed by GIS
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Year mm1999 4,0712000 3,2712001 3,5362002 2,8522003 3,4702004 2,6852005 3,1962006 3,4032007 3,5292008 3,7842009 3,8732010 3,202
Annual Ave . 3,406
Annual Precipitation Variability (1999-2010) in the Agusan River Basin (mm unit)
MEI – Multi-Variate ENSO Index Red indicates positive (warm) phase while blue indicates negative (cold) phase.
Annual Precipitation, mm
Butuan
Hinatuan
Malaybalay
Davao
(from Philippine Meteorological Stations)
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1901 1907 1913 1919 1925 1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021 2027 2033 2039 2045 2051 2057 20631000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
f(x) = 11.3807453161553 x + 2626.52381314561
GPCC 1901-2009NCEP/NCAR NMC reanalysis, 1948-2011PAGASA Hinatuan Station (Observed)NOAA, GFDL CM2.0Linear (NOAA, GFDL CM2.0)
Annual Precipitation from 1901 to 2065 (Models and Observed)
Result: Precipitation is expected to increase by 10% or more a few decades from now.
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 21001,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Total Annual Rainfall (mm) from ECHAM5 GCM
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I. Top 10 years, El Nino II. Top 10 years, La Nina
Year mm1999 38881956 38351945 38021962 37771934 37581963 36922009 35921908 35761926 35711910 3562
a. GPCC
Year mm1941 17521992 20241903 20561940 20771998 21201991 21541983 22241915 22331905 22451914 2252
a. GPCC
Year mm2063 4,729 2001 4,633 2025 4,603 2084 4,515 1980 4,480 2099 4,460 2051 4,410 2007 4,384 1966 4,374 2062 4,370
b. ECHAM5b. ECHAM5
Year mm2043 1,427 1990 1,485 1962 1,936 2057 2,199 1979 2,380 1997 2,431 2083 2,544 2032 2,548 2024 2,612 2073 2,647
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Land Cover Description Area, Sq. km.Mosaic cropland (50-70%) / vegetation (grassland/shrubland/forest) (20-50%)
4,198
Mosaic vegetation (grassland/shrubland/forest) (50-70%) / cropland (20-50%)
433
Built-up Area 14 Closed to open (>15%) (broadleaved or needleleaved, evergreen) shrubland (<5m)
111
Closed to open (>15%) broadleaved evergreen (>5m) 4,452 Mosaic forest or shrubland (50-70%) / grassland (20-50%) 116 Post-flooding or irrigated croplands (or aquatic) 4 Rainfed croplands 2,087 Water bodies 55 Total Area 11,471
Land Use Description Area, Sq. km.Residential 14 Evergreen Forest Land 5,113 Shrub and Brush Rangeland 4,198 Cropland and Pasture 2,092 Streams and Canals 55
Total Area 11,471
Lad Cover and Land Use Summary Table
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TRMM RadarPhilippine Meteorological Stations (PAGASA)
Source of Precipitation Data: TRMM and PAGASA96
km
114 km
132 km
164
km
136 km
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64 Sub-Watersheds
Grouping Sub-Watersheds by Meteorological Segments
18 Meteorological Segments
Intersect Catchment and Drainage with Land Use and Meteorological Data
a. Cropland Areas 63 b. Forest Areas 64 c. Built-up Areas 14 c. Shrub and Brush 64 d. Streams 21
Total 226 operations
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Graphical and Statistical Results:
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A. Hydrograph B. Flow Duration Curve
NSE - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, PBIAS - Percent bias, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR),r – Correlation coefficient, R Squared – Coefficient of determination
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Mean Monthly Discharge Flow (cfs) – Simulated vs. Observed
A. Talacogon
C. Prosperidad D. Sibagat
B. Santa Josefa
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
TALACOGON (Observed) RCH57 (Simulated)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
SANTA JOSEFA (Observed) RCH50 (Simulated)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
PROSPERIDAD (Observed) RCH8 (Simulated)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
5,000.00
SIBAGAT (Observed) RCH2 (Simulated)
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Sibagat River
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Agusan River: Poblacion, Talacogon Section
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Gibong River: Brgy. Maug, Prosperidad Section
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Lower Maanat River
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Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios
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1. Scenario 1 ( +20% to Precipitation)
2. Scenario 2 ( Scenario 1 with +2 °C to Temp.)
3. Scenario 3 (Precipitation -50%)
4. Scenario 4 (LULC Change)
5. Scenario 5 (Scenario 4 + Scenario 2)
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A. Major Irrigation Facilities B. ARB Sub-Watersheds
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A. Changes on Maximum Flow
Seasonal Average Percent Changes by Scenario
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C. Changes on Minimum Flow
B. Changes on Mean Flow
1. Scenario 1 ( +20% to Precipitation)
2. Scenario 2 ( Scenario 1 with +2 °C to Temp.)
3. Scenario 3 (Precipitation -50%)
4. Scenario 4 (LULC Change)
5. Scenario 5 (Scenario 4 + Scenario 2)
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A. Effect on maximum flow per seasonLULC Jan, Feb, Mar Apr, May, Jun Jul, Aug, Sep Oct, Nov, Dec Annual25% 34% 45% 21% 39% 35%50% 45% 59% 31% 48% 46%100% 60% 77% 43% 51% 58%
B. Effect on mean flow per seasonLULC Jan, Feb, Mar Apr, May, Jun Jul, Aug, Sep Oct, Nov, Dec Annual25% 35% 16% 4% 31% 21%50% 34% 18% 7% 30% 22%100% 31% 7% -7% 24% 14%
C. Effect on minimum flow per seasonLULC Jan, Feb, Mar Apr, May, Jun Jul, Aug, Sep Oct, Nov, Dec Annual25% 12% -13% -3% 19% 4%50% 8% -14% -4% 14% 1%100% 4% -21% -13% 11% -5%
Twenty percent (20%) increase in precipitation combined with two degree Celsius (2°C) increase in temperature and Land use Change
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Conclusions and Recommendations
- It is expected that the study will have significant implications on water management and land use planning.
- The ARB is highly vulnerable to climate change and land use change.
- Appropriate water resources policies, management and infrastructures should be adopted to meet the future challenges.
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- In the future, a more precise discharge data and model validation are expected as advancements to improve the hydrological prediction.
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BATINCILA [email protected] Tiu Bldg., J. Rosales AvenueButuan City PhilippinesTel No. (+6385) – 342-5774
どうも有り難う御座いますMarami pong salamat !
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