Dr Lance O’Brien

Agriculture Science Agenda For Africa: Discussions on Programmatic Alignment

CAADP and CGIAR Dublin, 13 April 2013

Agriculture Science Agenda for Africa

Drawing on and Learning from other Experiences: The Role of Foresighting in

Identifying Critical Areas for Increased Alignment

Outline of presentation

• Rationale: the need for Foresight in Agricultural Research and Innovation

• What is Foresight? • What does Foresight involve? • Who does Foresight? • Drawing on the EU Foresight experience:

• The EU Framework Programmes • The EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR)

• Critical areas for increased alignment through the ASAA • Foresight and the ASAA – The Global Foresight Academy

Agricultural Research for Development Challenges

“The global fragmentation and under-resourcing of public innovation, education and advisory processes and weak linkages with wider development processes and with farmers, NGOs and the private sector, are major bottlenecks constraining the value and impact of agricultural innovation on the lives and livelihoods of the poor”

The GCARD Roadmap (2011)

”…institutional issues such as capacity weaknesses, insufficient end user and private sector involvement, and ineffective farmer support systems persist in most of Africa’s agricultural productivity programmes and organizations….These problems are compounded by the fragmented nature of support and by inadequate total investment in agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption.”

FAAP (2006)

This situation could get worse

Business as usual is not an option:

Business as usual is not an option •Hunger remains widespread •Many systems of food production are unsustainable

Drivers of Change: •Global population increases •Changes in the size and nature of per capita demand •Future governance of the food system at both national and international levels •Climate change •Competition for key resources •Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

Global Food and Farming Futures (2011)

New approach needed in determining future research priorities

• Research must address issues that will still be important when the research is completed in 10 or more years ahead

• For long-term decisions, a new approach is needed for setting the agricultural research for development agenda which is: • forward thinking, demand-driven and based on thorough

research • assures the continuity needed for the research to reach fruition • based on analyses of the potential positive and negative

impacts of emerging issues • based on analyses of emerging sciences and technologies and

the horizons that they will open up • embedded in the wider development context and linked to the

wider innovation process • more comprehensive than modelling based on present

assumptions about what research can deliver

Foresight as an answer

“Improved foresight is essential if development needs and future actions are to be prioritized and to create a clear view of new challenges as they begin to emerge “

GCARD Roadmap (2011)

Foresight provides a means to “improve the prioritization and focus of agricultural research and create more relevant and effective innovation systems that are embedded in the needs of the societies that they serve”

Science Forum 2011, Beijing

What is Foresight?

Academic Definition… “A SYSTEMATIC, PARTICIPATORY, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day DECISIONS and mobilising joint ACTIONS” (http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.htm) Alternative Definition… “Part of the job of modern MANAGEMENT” (Anyone with common sense)

Foresight –what does it involve?

"Thinking the Future", "Debating the Future" and "Shaping the Future"

• Participatory, inclusive • Joint systemic understanding of the

current situation and how it can evolve in the future

• Alternative futures, medium to long term • Systematic and creative process to enable

participants to jointly see what is possible, probable and preferred

• Action-oriented, shaping the future today • Vision building process aiming at present day

decisions and to mobilise joint actions

Foresight – what is it?

•It is not about PREDICTING the future, but invites us to consider the future as SOMETHING WE CAN CREATE through the actions we take today •It is also a collective LEARNING PROCESS with a view to long-term strategic decision making •COMPLEMENTS more traditional ways of looking at the future, such as projections and modelling •An open and INCLUSIVE mechanism to enable all relevant stakeholders have their say in shaping preferred futures •Seeks to create shared VISIONS of the future, visions that stakeholders are willing to endorse by the actions they chose to take today •A crucial function in preparing for the FUTURE

Who does Foresight? Foresight provides a dynamic capability to succeed in a changing environment and managers at every level or organization of business and society have dedicated Foresight teams… Institutional and Corporate Level

• Shell: New Lens Scenarios • Siemens: “Pictures of the Future” available at www.siemens.com/pof • Teagasc: Teagasc 2030, a permanent Foresight and Strategy unit

Sectoral Level

• Sea Change: The Irish Department of the Marine • SCAR: The EU Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR)

National Level

• Finland: Government Foresight 2030 - a report on sustainable growth and well-being in Finland • UK: UK Foresight Programme http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight • South Korea: Korea is conducting the fourth technology foresight

(TF) on the future Korean society up to the year 2035

Regional Level • Regional Foresight: The BMW Region of Ireland •EU: Foresight and the use of Foresight tools well established in the Framework Programme (FP)

Foresight in Europe

• Foresight activities are considered a necessary policy response to the current environment of accelerated socio-economic and technological changes

• Enables policy makers to look into the future in order to identify and choose among policy options as well as to shape long-term policies and actions

• A specialist unit (The Knowledge for Growth Unit of JRC-IPTS) provides the forward looking intelligence to support decision making and enhancing the use of Foresight as an instrument for policy making in Europe

• The focus is increasingly on more policy-relevant Foresight application and methodology development, particularly by developing approaches to the early identification of emerging issues that will have an impact on European policies

Foresight in Europe

Stage 1: The Forward Studies Unit … and the JRC … Stage 2: The DG Research Foresight Unit … Stage 3: The focus of capability development (BLUEPRINTS…) Stage 4: Foresight integrated as a practice at all levels of the FP… How does the 5% of the FP have an impact on the whole of Europe? By continuously evolving the role of the FP … By complementing, completing and structuring the ERA … Variable Geometry instruments…

The ERA and transnational cooperation

The development of ERA is needed to overcome the fragmentation of research in Europe along national and institutional barriers. Fragmentation prevents Europe from fulfilling its research and innovation potential, at a huge cost to Europeans as taxpayers, consumers, and citizens

• Creating the European Research Area (ERA) requires open coordination of

visions of the future of science, technology and society, which can be achieved through cooperative Foresight

• The ERA is critical to building a structure aimed at the coordination of research activities and the convergence of research and innovation policies, at national and EU levels

• Joint Programming is one mechanism used in improving research cooperation within Europe, and in enhancing the efficiency and impact of national public research funding

• It does so by providing a mechanism for effective partnership between those involved in the development and implementation of national research programmes in Member States

Horizon 2020 proposal – Societal Challenge

Horizon 2020 :The EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020 Focus on societal challenges facing EU society, e.g. food security, health, clean energy and

transport Food Security Challenge: Sustainable and competitive agri-food sector for a safe and healthy diet Consumer needs for safe, healthy and affordable food have to be addressed, while considering the impacts of food consumption behaviour and food and feed production on human health and the total ecosystem…. This approach will contribute to…

• (a) food safety and security… • (b) decreasing the burden of food- and diet-related diseases by

promoting the shift towards healthy and sustainable diets, via consumer education and innovations in the food industry…

JRC Foresight study feeding into Horizon 2020

“The JRC will establish a corporate function with the goal of providing anticipatory intelligence through corporate horizon scanning, foresight activities and analyses to efficiently support the JRC future areas of work and consequent work programme activities “

JRC Strategy 2010-2020

New Foresight Study: “Tomorrow’s healthy society – research priorities for foods and diets” Objectives of the Foresight study:

• Identify challenges and relevant drivers of future societal developments relevant for provision and consumption of beneficial foods and diets

• Identify research and innovation priorities that support the provision and consumption of foods and diets for health and well-being

• Support the implementation of Horizon 2020

SCAR Foresight

• The future of Europe and European agriculture on the world market will largely depend on its ability to cope with new challenges, which cannot be addressed simply by applying trends of the past

• The Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) started in 2006 a foresight process

• Agreed that better coordination of research was essential to enable Europe to successfully face the profound changes that lie ahead for the agricultural sector

• This foresight process aims to identify futures scenarios for European agriculture (20-30 year perspective), to be used in the identification of medium/long term research priorities to support the developing European Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy.

• The experience gained through the SCAR foresight process has shown the importance of, and need for, an early warning system that allows policy makers and researchers to clearly anticipate the challenges and problems that we may face in the years to come, and to suggest ways of tackling them

CAADP and CGIAR -critical areas for increased alignment

• Defining key AR4D priorities and actions, driven by evolving national, regional and global development needs

• Ensuring equitable partnership and accountability among all stakeholders in agricultural innovation and developmental change

• Achieving increased investments in human, institutional and financial resources for AR4D systems to meet demands in development

• Developing required human and institutional capacities for generation, access and effective use of agricultural knowledge in development

• Coordinating linkages relating innovation to development programmes and policies

GCARD Roadmap (2011)

The Global Foresight Hub

The GFAR Global Foresight Hub

• Foresight Academy chapters will be established to address future needs in national and regional contexts

• Coordinated foresight actions established at international level to stimulate and integrate diverse analyses of key issues and their projections

• Current and future AR4D agenda and priority setting at National, Regional and Global levels to be an evolutionary and inclusive process among all AR4D stakeholders, based on use of the best available knowledge

• Future agricultural scenarios projected by multi-stakeholder cross-referenced analyses, to better identify new knowledge needs and shape research required

Take home messages

Foresight offers a solution to the challenge of • identifying research priorities • building an effective innovation system

Foresight has long been used by the EU as an input to policy development and in the implementation of research programmes

Foresight can help underpin the implementation of the Agriculture Science Agenda

for Africa The GFAR proposal for a Global Foresight Academy would facilitate the building of

an independent forward-thinking capacity in Africa