Agriculture Market Information System (AMIS): Progress and Plans

Abdolreza Abbassian, AMIS Secretary

Economic and Social Development Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAO

Presentation Outline

Why AMIS?

What led to the establishment of AMIS?

AMIS objectives

AMIS structure, output and work programme

AMIS website and statistical tool

Slide 2

Lack of reliable and up-to-date information on supply,

demand, stocks and export availability

Weaknesses at national level to produce consistent, accurate

and timely agricultural market data and forecasts

Inadequate information on stocks, domestic prices, and

linkages between international and domestic markets

Inappropriate and/or uncoordinated policy responses to

market crisis

Why AMIS?

Slide 3

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

Wheat Maize Barley

US$/MT, fob

•Floods in Pakistan

•Rains in Canada and USA

•Rains and Floods in Australia

USDA October 2010

maize output cuts

USDA March 2011

planting/stocks

forecasts USDA maize yield

projections

• Macroeconomic Conditions •EURO Crisis

•CIS Production Recovery •Higher US Maize Production

and Stocks •Strong US$

Russian Droughts

Russian Export Ban

USDA maize

planted

acreage

estimates

•Political Tensions

•Oil price surge

•Declining US$

•Winter wheat – uncertain growing conditions in US & China

Announcement

by Russia of

lifting the ban

from July

2010/11 2011/12

US$/MT, fob

Price volatility: weather events, changes in crop forecasts, supply & demand prospects, etc…

Prices: Going up?

Slide 5

Events leading to the establishment of AMIS 2008-2011

The Food Price Surge and Crisis of 2007/08 International prices peak in June 2008 - up 80 percent in two years!

World Food Summit (November 2009) Renewed commitment to eradicate hunger

Extraordinary Meeting of FAO Intergovernmental Groups on Grains and Rice (September 2010) – In response to fears over a repeat of the 2007/08 crisis in 2010/11 following the severe drought and

export restrictions by the Russian Federation

Recognized

a) The lack of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply and demand and export

availability

b) Insufficient market transparency at all levels including in relation to futures markets

c) Growing linkage with outside markets, in particular the impact of “financialization” on

futures markets

d) Unexpected changes triggered by national food security situations

e) Panic buying and hoarding

Recommended

a) analyses of alternative approaches to mitigating food price volatility, with a view to

support policy decision-making

b) new mechanisms to enhance transparency and manage the risks associated with new

sources of market volatility

c) exploring ways of strengthening FAO’s partnerships with other relevant Organizations

working on these issues

Slide 6

… events leading to the establishment of AMIS

G20 Seoul Summit (November 2010)

The Seoul Consensus identified nine key pillars in its Multi-Year Action Plans for Development, among

them food security. In this regard, it invited relevant international organizations to develop, for 2011

Summit in France, proposals to better manage and mitigate risks of food price volatility without distorting

market behavior. The consortium of several international organizations (FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, IMF, OECD,

UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, and the UN HTLF) prepared a report on Price Volatility in Food

and Agricultural Markets. The Report included a list of ten recommendations, of which one called for the

establishment of an Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) in order to enhance the quality,

timeliness and reliability of food market outlook information.

G20 Agriculture Ministers Meeting (June 2011)

The Ministerial meeting adopted the Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture. The Action Plan

focused on five main pillars: i) improving agricultural production and productivity; ii) increasing market

information and transparency; iii) strengthening international policy coordination; iv) reducing the effects of

price volatility for the most vulnerable; and v) improving the functioning of agricultural commodity derivatives’

markets.

A Scoping Report for G20: Improving Food Market Transparency and policy Response for Food Security: AMIS (May 2011):

This report by FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, and the UN HLTF

proposed to establish AMIS. The scoping report reviewed the existing global food market outlook information

mechanisms, identified problems and gaps, and determined the scope, structure and operations of AMIS.

Slide 7

The G20 Cannes Summit (November 2011) Endorses the Action Plan

Launch of AMIS and Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative to increase market information and transparency (September 2011): The "Agricultural Market Information System" (AMIS) in Rome on September 15-16, 2011, to

improve information on markets. It will enhance the quality, reliability, accuracy, timeliness and

comparability of food market outlook information.

The "Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative" in Geneva on September 22-23, 2011, to

coordinate satellite monitoring observation systems in different regions of the world in order to

enhance crop production projections and weather forecasting data.

… events leading to the establishment of AMIS

Slide 8

improve agricultural market information, analyses

and forecasts at both national and international levels

report on abnormal international market conditions

including structural weaknesses, as appropriate

strengthen global early warning capacity

collect and analyse policy information, promote

dialogue and international policy coordination

build data collection capacity in participating

countries.

AMIS Objectives

Slide 9

AMIS Structure Building on Existing mechanisms and institutions

AMIS Participants and Coverage: Participants include the G20, Spain and, at least, seven

non-G20 countries who are invited to join. The seven countries have been selected on the

basis of their significant share in global production and trade for the four (initially)

commodities covered by AMIS: Wheat, Rice, Maize and Soybean. The seven countries are:

Egypt, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, the Philippines, Thailand, Ukraine, and Vietnam.

AMIS Secretariat: It is formed by FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, WFP, OECD, World Bank, WTO,

UNCTAD, and the UN-HLTF. It is responsible for producing market outlooks, assessments

and analyses, and for supporting all functions of the Forum and the Information Group. It is

housed in FAO’s Trade and Markets Division.

The Information Group: It consists of technical representatives (Focal Points) from

participant countries. Focal Points provides national market and policy information to the

Secretariat. It meets twice a year.

The Rapid Response Forum: It is composed of Senior Officials from participant countries. It

aim to foster early discussion among decision-level officials about abnormal international

market conditions to encourage coordination of policies. It meets as needed, but in principle

not less than once a year.

AMIS Chair: Presides over meetings of the Forum and the Information Group. Elected for

one year from the participating countries.

Slide 10

AMIS Process Market Information and Policy Coordination in AMIS

Slide 11

Slide 12

AMIS Inception Meeting, Rome, September 15 - 16, 2011

Recognizing that AMIS is a work-in-

progress initiative, the meeting:

•Adopted the “terms of reference”

and “rules of procedures”

• Agreed on a working document

on the Secretariat outputs

• Elected the Chair of AMIS for

one year

•Appointed the Secretary of AMIS

•Selected a logo

•Decided to launch AMIS website

Expert Meeting on Market Indicators, AMIS outputs and Work Programme, Rome, 19-20 December 2011

Slide 13

Purpose:

•Experts from international organizations met to clarify the concept and definition of

abnormal international market conditions and to work towards the development of a set

of indicators to measure such movements.

•They also discussed & proposed AMIS outputs, operational issues and work plan.

Outcome:

•Monthly bulletins to be published on AMIS website from March 2012

•Develop a strategy for a review of indicators, in terms of their quality or performance

•The identification of thresholds for abnormal market conditions that may have

implications for global food security

•Reports to be published on progress of data collection and improvement and the

statistical tool of AMIS

•A “baseline assessment” on capacity building to be carried out in order to define needs

(which kinds of information) and priority countries, trying to make clear division between

capacity building activities under AMIS as compared to other initiatives (i.e. the Global

Strategy)

AMIS Work Plan & expected outputs

September 2011

Official launch of AMIS (Rome, 15-16 September): Adoption of AMIS’ Terms of

Reference and Rules and Procedures, as well as a working document outlining

Secretariat outputs.

December 2011

•Launch of the AMIS Web site (www.amis-outlook.org)

•Expert Meeting on Market Indicators, AMIS outputs and Work Programme (19-20

December, Rome)

February 2012

First meeting of the AMIS Information Group (Rome, 9-10 February) will discuss

informational channels, data requirements, methodology, and data input

mechanisms

March/April 2012

AMIS Monthly Bulletin to be published on AMIS website

April 2012

First meeting of the Rapid Response Forum (Mexico City– April 11) to review the

progress made since the AMIS inception meeting in September 2011

Slide 14

…. Work Plan

June-December 2012: Capacity Building

•Assess capacity development needs in member countries, in coordination with

relevant regional organizations

•Prepare a manual defining best practices and methodologies for agricultural

market data collection and analysis

•Hold a series of country/regional training sessions to enhance data collection

capacity and to assist in the development of methodologies for food market

outlook

•Identify, design and implement special projects, aiming at enhancing data

collection, analysis and outlooks

Slide 15

Presentation Outline

• Introduction to AMIS statistical tool

• Data retrieve, compare and input

• Data reporting and validation

• AMIS Monthly Bulletin

Slide 16

AMIS Statistics – Key Features

• Internet application built on open source technologies

• Facilitates data collection, harmonization, comparison and

dissemination

• Provides support to AMIS data sharing network by enabling

access to national and international data

• Includes a dedicated area for metadata information such

as methods of data collection and aggregations

• Helps deriving commodity balance indicators through a

specialized data entry/management tool

Envisaged AMIS Network and Data Exchange

Intl. Agency Z Server

AMIS Server

Country X Server

Country Y Server

Online connection

Emailing Excel files

Mobile devices

@ web services to exchange data between the AMIS server and AMIS stakeholders’ servers

Upload/retrieve data via automated email

Upload data using the commodity balance data entry tool

Upload/retrieve data using smartphones

UMTS and GSM networks

CONTACT INFORMATION: AMIS-Secretariat@fao.org Tel: +39-06-57052057 Fax: +39-06-57054495

www.amis-outlook.org

Statistics

An integrated, open-source platform to

strengthen collection analysis and

dissemination of food market-related

data

•handles and harmonizes multiple data

sources (national and international)

•enables data comparison

•helps to enter and calculate commodity

balance data

•facilitates data download

•includes tools to link national and

international databases through the

Internet

Compare Data

Visualize and compare

countries, data sources and

products through an easy-to-

use web interface

•enables selection of countries,

products and elements from

multiple data sources

•shows data on charts as time

series or as bars (for single

years)

•combines data by data sources,

countries/regions or products

•enables export of the data and

charts through the web interface

Download Data

Extract data from the

AMIS database by

selecting the appropriate

data source

•easy data selection and

download options

•includes data previews

•fast download in CSV format

Commodity Balance Data Entry Tool

Enter commodity balance data through the web in a secure environment

•needs login access to protect

data and enable editing only by

authorized users

•calculates aggregated data on

the fly (e.g. Total Utilization)

•keeps track of the historical

changes of the variables

•stores all forecast data in the

database on monthly basis

Data Reporting and Validation Process

• Monthly supply and demand updates (AMIS commodities)

received from national focal points by the third week of

each month

• Received data examined by the Secretariat, compared with

other sources and evaluated in the context of global supply

and demand situation

• Revised data (if the case) transmitted to national focal

points for feedback before final validation. This will be an

interactive process.

• Final estimates/forecasts to be uploaded by the first week

of each month on the AMIS statistical database for public

access

AMIS Monthly Bulletin

• Links to principal global commodity market reports (FAO, IGC, USDA)

• Graphic presentation of the global supply and demand situation and outlook

• Summary tables highlighting changes in world commodity supply and demand outlook based on up-to-date balances and policy information from national focal points for the participating countries and FAO/GIEWS balances for non-participating countries

• Graphic presentation of the latest market indicators

• Recap of the overall global market situation and outlook