Agriculture and Rural-Urban migrations

in Developing Countries: facts and policy implications

Jacques Vercueil – presentation based on an FAO study

from the « Roles of Agriculture » (RoA) Project

National Agricultural Policy Center,

Damascus – 12 December 2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Mil

lio

n m

igra

nts

Worldwide rural exodus since 1950

Plan of the Presentation

• The ROA Project

• Highlights of Rural-Urban migration in a sample of countries

• Results from the ROA research

• Policy implications

The Roles of Agriculture

• Is Agriculture « special »?– Economic roles

– Social roles

– Environmental roles

– Cultural roles

Sample of RoA countries

The Country-Case-Studies framework

• Module 1: Historical Policy framework

• M2: environmental role, national and local

• M3: anti-poverty role

• M4: national & household food security

• M5: buffer role against crises

• M6: social viability (Rural-urban migration)

• M7: perception and cultural role

Module 6: Social Viability

The role of agriculture in

rural-to-urban migrations (RUM)

Overview of Migration in the RoA Countries and Syria

• Trends in the Urban Share of Population

• History of the « Migration Drive »

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Urba

n sh

are

of p

ôpul

atio

n (%

)

Chile

Mexico

Dominican Rp

South Africa

Morocco

Syria

Indonesia

China

Ghana

Mali

India

Ethiopia PDR

Trends of urbanisation

u = 1 / (1+e-mt) m = migration drive

The sigmoid curve under three different migration drives

0,00

0,50

1,00

1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100

time (t° = 50 years)

Urba

n sh

are

0.5

0.05

0.01

The sigmoid model

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100CHILE

MEXICO

DOM REP

SOUTH AFRICA

MOROCCO

INDONESIA

CHINA

GHANA

MALI

INDIA

ETHIOPIA

SIGMOID

The cross-country path of urbanisation

Decreasing drive

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Dominican Rp

Ethiopia

Chile

Syria

Ghana

Mexico

Increasing drive

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Indonesia

China

South Africa

Mali

Morocco

India

Lessons from the studies

• Who migrates why?

• Urban development patterns and costs

• The role of agriculture

Ethiopia 1994

RU

UU

UR

RR

Ghana 1991-1998

UU

UR

RR

RU

Examples of internal migrations

0%10%20%30%40%50%

60%70%80%90%

100%

Heads Non Heads

Migrants in town

Other reason

Studies

More jobs in town

Bad economic sit.

Lack of land

Lack of job

Who migrates why?

Survey from Dominican Republic

Mali (Bamako)

Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo)

Ethopia (Addis Ababa)

Ghana (Accra)

Chile (Santiago)

Syria (Aleppo)

Mexico (Mexico)

Indonesia (Jakarta)

Morocco (Casablanca)

South Africa (Johannesburg)

India (Mumbai)

China (Shanghai)

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0

Urban development problemsPrimacy in the

sample countries

The Role of Agriculture

• The anti-poverty role of agriculture• The size of agriculture• Sub-sector differences:

– Commodity differences– Institutional differences– Development projects

• Rural-to-rural migration (seasonal or permanent) • Agriculture and rural development

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Sha

re (%

) of A

gric

ultr

ual i

n R

ural

pop

ulat

ion

Mali

Chile

China

Ethiopia

Mexico

Ghana

Morocco

Indonesia

India

Syria

Dominican Rp

South Africa

Agriculture in the Rural Economy

Agri / Rural population (%) - 112 developing countries

(MAX-MIN)/MEAN

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Agricultural policies

• Agriculture terms of trade

• Profitable labour intensive agriculture

• Capital markets

• Agricultural insecurity

Sub-sector differences

• Commodity differences

• Institutional differences

• Local agricultural development (projects)

Agriculture and Rural development

• The entire rural economy matters for migrations

• Rural infrastructures and services

• Agricultural links with the non-farm economy

• How to maintain the social fabric in rural areas?

Other policies

• Migration policies

• Social policies

• Urban policies

• Spatial development management

To conclude

“Revitalization of rural areas must also be a priority to enhance social stability and help redress the excessive rate of rural-to-urban migration confronting many countries”. Rome Declaration on World Food Security, paragraph 5 (World Food Summit, November 1996)

Thank you for your attention