Agricultural Market Situation and Outlook · 26-570 lb. heifer calves (20 replacement kept)...
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Agricultural Market Situation and Outlook June 5, 2020 WELCOME!
Transcript of Agricultural Market Situation and Outlook · 26-570 lb. heifer calves (20 replacement kept)...
Agricultural Market Situation and Outlook
June 5, 2020
WELCOME!
Use the Q&A tool
to ask questions
After the webinar you’ll be invited
to complete a short survey
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, St. Louis Federal Reserve
Weekly Continuous Jobless Claims
June 5th Jobs Report
Expectations were for the unemployment rate to approach 20% for the month of May
Unemployment stood near 14.7% in April
HOWEVER: The U.S. economy GAINED 2.5 million jobs in May• Unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%• Possibly above 14.7% at some point, but finished out with 2.5
million more jobs than those lost during the month.
A Slower Death For Some Businesses• Social Distancing is Expensive
• Reduced business hours making time for sanitation
• Increased material costs
• Same overhead but reduced customer capacity
• Consumer Behavior• Many businesses are reporting much slower customer
traffic
Survival After a Disaster
• 40% of small businesses NEVER re-open after a disaster (FEMA)
• 25% go on to fail within 1 year after a disaster (FEMA)
• 90% fail within 2 years after a disaster (SBA)• (Under normal circumstances, approximately 30% fail in
the first 2 years and 50% fail in the 1st five years)
Congressional Budget Office Projections• May Projection for 2nd Quarter “Real” GDP
• Revised down 13.3% From January’s projection.
Chart from Congressional Budget Office June 1, 2020 Report. Online at: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-06/56376-GDP.pdf
Trying to Avoid the “Back Yard Syndrome”
Frayne Olson
Crop Economist/ Marketing Specialist
701-231-7377 (o)
701-715-3673 (c)
Drought Classification
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
North Dakota Prevented Planting Acreage
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,0
00
Acr
es
Prevent Plant Acres Simple Average Olympic Average
Simple Average = 1.206 million acres Olympic Average = 1.022 million acres
USDA – FSA – Crop Acreage Data
U.S. Corn Production by County
U.S. Corn Production by State
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
Bu
she
ls
IOWA ILLINOIS NEBRASKAMINNESOTA INDIANA SOUTH DAKOTAOHIO WISCONSIN NORTH DAKOTA
USDA – NASS – Quick Stats Query
U.S. Soybean Production by County
U.S. Soybean Production by State
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
Bu
she
ls
ILLINOIS IOWA MINNESOTA INDIANA
NEBRASKA MISSOURI OHIO NORTH DAKOTA
USDA – NASS – Quick Stats Query
U.S. All Wheat Production by State
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
Bu
she
ls
NORTH DAKOTA KANSAS MONTANA COLORADO IDAHO
OKLAHOMA MINNESOTA TEXAS SOUTH DAKOTA
USDA – NASS – Quick Stats Query
U.S. Winter Wheat Production by County
U.S. Spring Wheat Production by County
U.S. Spring Wheat Production by State
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Bu
she
ls
NORTH DAKOTA MONTANA MINNESOTA IDAHO SOUTH DAKOTA WASHINGTON
USDA – NASS – Quick Stats Query
Estimated Soil Moisture
USDA Crop Explorer
Estimated Soil Moisture
USDA Crop Explorer
Tim Petry
Extension Livestock Marketing Economist
[email protected]/livestockeconomics
LIVESTOCK PRICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Mechanics of a Marketing Plan
• Set pricing objectives.
• Set timing objectives.
• Choose the correct marketing tool.
• Monitor market conditions.
• Update or modify when needed.
• Implement!
Price Risk Management Tools
• Cash forward contract
• Video and internet auctions
• CME futures
• CME options
• Livestock Risk Protection (LRP)
• Which one or combination fits your marketing plan?
• “If you don’t manage risk, risk will manage you”
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JAN APR JUL OCT
2020 2019 2018 2017
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
2020 Calf Marketing Plan100 Cow Spring Calving Herd
46-590 lb. steer calves26-570 lb. heifer calves (20 replacement kept)
Expected Market Date Oct. 29
Goal: Pre-price 50 % of productionExpected price trend ?Marketing Tool: LRP-Under 600 lbs.
Strategy # of Head Price Objective Time Deadline
LRP-21 wk. 12 steers7 heifers
$155$140
Jun 30
LRP-13 wk. 11 steers6 heifers
$165$149
Jul. 30
Market 46 steers26 heifers
Oct. 29
Ag-Energy Situation and Outlook
David Ripplinger
Bioproducts/Bioenergy Economics Specialist
Data: EIA, USDA/AMSCalculation: NDSU Extension
SD Ethanol Prices 6/5/20 5/7/20 Change
Corn 2.82-2.97 2.49-2.80 +10%
Ethanol 1.08 .78 +38%
Distillers Grains 134.60 167.50 -19%
Simple Crush(/bu) 1.27 .96 +32%
ProductionUS Oil Supply & Demand
Quantity supplied is 1.6 (1.9) million barrels per day greater than the quantity demanded
Data EIA
Graphic NDSU Extension
Week of 5/29/20 (Week of 4/24/20)
Data: EIA
Recording and Additional Information
www.ag.ndsu.edu/extension/economics
www.ag.ndsu.edu/alerts/coronavirus
Use the Q&A tool to ask questions
After the webinar you’ll be invited to complete a short survey
