Agricultural Flood Damage Observation and Economic ...
Transcript of Agricultural Flood Damage Observation and Economic ...
Agricultural Flood Damage Observation and Economic Assessment
Joe Morris Professor Emeritus, Cranfield University , UKDirector: M-RES Ltd
With acknowledgements to colleagues at Cranfield including Tim Hess, Peter Leeds-Harrison, Helena Posthumus and others
Workshop on Flood Impacts ObservationMontpellier November 5th to 7th , 2019
[email protected]@m-res.co.uk
Agricultural Flood Impact Observations: key messages
• Flood damage critically depends on: • Land Use Intensity • Seasonality• Duration
• Flooding and ‘Land Drainage’ go together• Impacts are diffuse and dispersed, but locally
important • Relatively small share of total costs of major
events• New roles for Agric FRM: CC and Wildlife?• Need for primary impact data and research
support
Objectives and contents
Objectives :• To review, drawing on practical experience of the
UK case, approaches to the assessment of the impact & costs of flooding on Agriculture.
• To interpret this for future assessments, with implications for policy and practice.
Contents:Conceptualising agricultural flooding Assessing economic damages Examples from practiceFutures?
• Flooding : ‘excess’ water, surface and groundwater
• Sources : fluvial, pluvial, coastal/tidal, groundwater
• Risk : combination of probability of a flood event and consequence
• Management : purposeful intervention (including do nothing)
• Agriculture: production of food and fibre
FRM and Agriculture
FRM Context and Motivation : UKAgricultural and Rural Policy Strategic AssetsFood SecurityClimate change: floods and droughtsWetlands for wildlife and people: Natural flood risk management Integrated catchment and shoreline management
Agric Land Grade
Land Cover
• Control of excess water on the land surface (flooding) and in the soil profile (water logging)
• ‘Flood and Land Drainage’ Management
• Modifications to channel capacity
• Sea defences/coastal protection
• Management of water levels in rivers and arterial systems, gravity or pumped
• Installation of field drains
Flood Risk Management for Agriculture
Approach to Agricultural Flood Impact Observation and Assessment and Farmflood Model
Developed initially from ex-post evaluation appraisal of investments in Flood Defence and Land Drainage (1980s) (22 schemes in E&W )
Applied to ex ante assessments (during 1980s/90s) when public investments for agriculture under scrutiny.Used to assess ex post flood event impacts, 2007, 2012, 2013/14, currently 2016-2019
Used to support Govt ‘Flood Cost Calculator’ Used for strategic assessments
Applied in Guidance
Simplified framework for Agricultural FRM
FRM interventions Hydrology Land use and management
Soil wetness
Land drainage
‘Channel’ capacity Surface
FloodingPhysical, financial
and economic productivity
Coastal protection
Institutions, Policy and Market Drivers and Responses
Natural Resources and Environment
• The flood risk areas : flood magnitude & frequency
• Land use
• Land productivity and drainage
• Seasonality
• Duration
• Water depth and quality
• Multiple floods
• Proportion of farms in flood area
Factors to consider in assessing FRM for Agriculture
Estimating Agricultural Damages
• Water regimes: • Flooding
• Waterlogging
Frequency
Seasonality Duration
Depth
Standards of Agricultural
Flood Defence and Drainage
Low High
Profitability of farming systems
Quality
Damage Costs of a Flood Event
Intensive arableExtensive grassland
Land use is critical
Surface Flooding of Agricultural Land • Flooding from Rivers and
Sea
• Inundation of low lying riparian/floodplain land
• Inundation of coastal and estuarine areas, with saline water
• E.g. summer 2007 in England, winter 2013/14 in England and Wales.
Impact on Agriculture Reduced plant growth
• Lower harvest yields• Reduced crop quality• Loss of grazing and fodder for
livestockPhysical damage
• Crops, livestock, infrastructure and equipment
• Damage to soils • Remedial & clean-up costs
Reduced crop and land use choicesAgricultural Land Loss
Whole
Year
Summer
April-October
Horticulture 1 in 20 1 in 100
Intensive arable
including sugar beet
and potatoes
1 in 10 1 in 25
Extensive arable:
cereals, beans, oil
seeds
1 in 8 1 in 8
Intensive grass:
improved grass, usually
dairying
1 in 2 1 in 5
Extensive grass, usually
cattle and sheep
At least once per
year
1 in 3
Common tolerable flood frequencies: annual
probability
Agricultural land use
Type
Agricultural Land Use and Flood ToleranceThe more intensive is land use, the greater the cost of a flood event Land use intensity and flood probability negatively correlated
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Horticulture High High High Moderate –High
Intensive arable Moderate High High Moderate –High
Extensive arable Moderate High Moderate- High Low-Moderate
Grassland intensive Moderate High Moderate Low
Grassland extensive Low Moderate Low Low
Seasonal flooding: vulnerability
Estimated monthly distribution of flood events by region in England &Wales (Roca et al, 2010)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Anglian Midlands, South and North East North West, South West and Wales Thames All
Based on hydrological data, about 76 % of floods are expected to occur in winter , October - March
Agricultural Yield Loss due to flooding varies according to month/crop season
Yield loss % of normal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
October November December January February March April May June July August September
Winter cereals Potatoes GrassFlooding of about 1 week duration
• Contamination
• Anoxic conditions
• Salinity
Water Quality
Crop group Sensitivity to saline flooding Yield Penalty (extra penalty as a % of normal yield
relative to fluvial)
Barley and oil seed rape Tolerant 10%
Sugar beet Tolerant 10% (including pre-planting)
Winter cereals Moderately tolerant 15%
Spring cereals Moderately sensitive 10% before planting, 20% after
Spring peas Moderately sensitive 15% before planting, 20% after
Horticulture and potatoes Sensitive 30% before planting, 100% after
Source : after Roca et al., 2010
• Effects are broadly additive up to the point where crops cannot recover and total yield is lost
• Currymoor Somerset 2012 , repeat floods in April and June, complete loss of grass for grazing and winter feed, requiring reseeding in parts
Multiple Floods
Waterlogging: below surface flooding
• Prolonged periods of soil wetness post-surface flooding and during periods of excess rainfall
Impact on Agriculture Reduced plant growth
• Lower harvest yields• Reduced crop quality• Loss of grazing and fodder for
livestock• Reduced field access for machines and
grazing animals• Soil structural damage• Reduced crop and land use choices
• Agriculture productivity influenced by soil wetness (depth to water table)
• Prescribed conditions for • Good (rarely wet), no impediment
• Bad (occasionally wet) reduced yields, access
• Very Bad (commonly wet), restriction on land use
Land drainage and productivity
Land drainage and productivity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Winter wheat and barley Spring wheat and barley Oil seed rape Potatoes, Peas, Sugar Beet
Good Bad Very Bad
% normal yields
Drainage England and Wales@ Based on survey and literature. Morris et al, various dates
Agricultural Flood Costs (CFARMFLOOD) are best estimated at the farm level and then aggregated to the total area flooded
• CFARMFLOOD = arable + grass + livestock + other
Where :
• arable = croplossA + inputsA + harvestA+ landA–reseedA + residualA
• grass = foragelossG + inputsG- harvestG + landG+ reseedG + residualG
• livestock = move + housing + feed + services + mortality + sales
• other = buildings + utilities + machinery + field infrastructure + debris + farm services +financing + miscellaneous
• arable = croplossA + inputsA + harvestA+ landA– reseedA + residualA
Arable crop flood damage
• grass = foragelossG + inputsG- harvestG + landG+ reseedG + residualG
Grass flood damage costs
• livestock = move + housing + feed + services + mortality + sales
Livestock damage costs
• other = buildings + utilities + machinery + field infrastructure + debris + farm services +financing + miscellaneous
Other farm damage costs
Financial Appraisal
Impacts on incomes and expenditures of private individuals and organisations expressed in market prices paid and received
Whose Spectacles ?
Agricultural Accounting conventions Farm BudgetsCAP income support payments CAP agri-environment
Economic Appraisal National economy viewpointUses ‘economic’ rather than financial prices
Prices adjusted to remove taxes, subsidies and price supportAssets valued at ‘remaining’ value/’betterment’AdditionalityDiscounting Scale effects: strategic assets, vulnerabilityWelfare issues: rural economy
Agricultural Flood Impact: England Summer 2007
Agric Damage costs per ha : England summer 2007: 50,000 ha flooded, Cost £50M
• CFARMFLOOD = arable + grass + livestock + other
Horti-
culture
General
cropping
Cereals Mixed Dairy Grazing
livestock
Pigs All farms
(n = 4) (n = 20) (n = 22) (n = 11) (n = 9) (n = 9) (n = 3) (n = 78)
Arable production 6,592 1,760 530 223 163 7 715 828
Grass production 0 64 73 143 464 371 68 156
Livestock production 0 5 12 -3 328 152 4 58
Other287 199 236 49 104 81 162 163
TOTAL COST 6,879 2,028 850 411 1,058 612 948 1,207
Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T.M., Neville, D., Phillips, E. and Baylis, A. (2009). Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2009:1-8.
Agriculture flood impacts: England Summer 2007
n = 11
n = 9
n = 22
n = 9
n = 3
n = 4
n = 20
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Mixed
Grazing livestock
Cereals
Dairy
Pigs
Horticulture
General cropping
Total flood loss £k/farm
Arable production losses
Grass production losses
Livestock production losses
Damage to farm assets
Other costs
Source : Posthumus, Morris et al , 2009
Arable production
, 69%
Grass production
13%
Livestock production
5%
Other13%
Av Flood Damage Costs % Total
Arable production Grass production Livestock production Other
Costs of a major flood? England Summer 2007
0 50 100 150 200 250
Roads
Schools
Electricity
Waste Water
Water supply
Railways
Community leisure centres
Police, fire**
Property (£M)*
Services (£M)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Households
Businesses
Utilities
Public Health/welfare
Communications
Local Government
Temp Housing
Vehicles
Agriculture
Environment Agency
Emergency Services
Insured (£M)
Uninsured (£M)
Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell S.. 2010. The Costs of the Summer 2007 floods in England. Report to the Environment Agency Science Project SC070039, Cranfield University, Bedford http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/SCHO1109BRJA-e-e.pdf
£3.2 Billion Economic cost
Agriculture : about 2% of total
Flooding: Somerset Moors & Levels, Spring /Summer 2012 (S W England)
• Impacts
• Emergency evacuation of livestock, housing or relocation
• Loss of grazing or silage/hay making & cost of supplementary grass feed
• Cost of reseeding pastures
• Loss of yield and quality on arable crops
• Damaged drainage systems and field infrastructure
• Loss of beneficial soil invertebrates
• Increased risk of animal disease
• Average damage costs £920/ha (long) and £174/ha (short) duration flooding respectively
• Virtually all losses uninsured
Morris & Brewin (2013)
Estimating the costs of t he Spring 2012 event on grassland in Somerset :
CFARMFLOOD = grass + livestock + other
Flooding < 2
weeks
Types of flood damage Central Range * Central **
£/ha £/ha £/ha
Loss of Grass Energy (D1) 506 383-638 102
450 338-564
Fat cattle sales (L2) 783 589-979
Contractor services (L3) 26 23-29
Reseeding costs (E1) 218 168-273
Loss of grazing Days (E2) 95 86-105 45
Clean up 15 13-17 7
20 18-22 5
Other 5 4-6 10
Financing 25 22-28 5
Management burden n/a n/a
Total other costs (O1) 65 59-72 27
Loss Scenarios for 2012
Long duration flooding
Grass energy loss D1+L3+E1+E2+O1 845 655-1,043
Hay loss L1+L3+E1+E2+O1 789 610-968
Fat cattle loss L2+L3+E1+E2+O1 1,122 860-1,384
Short duration flooding
Grass energy loss D1+E2+O1 174
Note : * range asumes: +/-25% for grass energy, hay sales and fatcattle and +/-10% for other items
** range for short duration f looding +25% .
Repairs to field infrastructure
Damage to crops and grassland (D)
Damage costs by flood duration
Extra Costs (E)
Other Costs (O)
Flooding 2-4 weeks or
more
Loss of Sales (L)
Loss of haysales /withy sales materials (L1)
grass energy loss, 40%
hay sales loss, 15%
livestock loss, 32%
other , 14%
Flood losses £916/ha
grass energy loss hay sales loss livestock loss other
690 ha on Currymoor, £590,000 totalOver 4,000 ha affected on Somerset Moors and Levels. Morris and Brewin, 2013
The Winter 2013/14 Flood
• Rain, Storm and Tidal Surge
• River, groundwater, ‘surface’ and coastal flooding
• Repeat and long duration
Chatterton, J., Clarke, C., Daly, E., Dawks, S., Elding, C., Fenn, T., Hick, E., Miller, J., Morris, J., Ogunyoye, F. and Salado R. 2016.The costs and
impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods. Report SC140025/R1. Environment Agency, Bristol.
Flood images
Tewkesbury Abbey and flooded Swilgate © Copyright Philip Halling and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence. http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3820432
Fowey, CornwallMarine Terrace - storm damage © Copyright Ian Capper and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3804544
Storm surge damage, Happisburgh © Copyright Evelyn Simak and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3774240
Source : PB/BVSowey, Somerset
Impacts of 2014 winter floods on agriculture in E &W
Impact type £ million (2014 prices) Range £ million
ARABLE 6.9 5.5 –8.2(+/-20%) GRASSLAND 1.7 1.4 –2.0 (+/-20%) LIVESTOCK 4.1 2.1–6.2(+/-50%) OTHER 5.6 2.8 –8.4(+/-50%) Total 18.9 ADAS, 2014
Probably about 2% of total economic costs of winter 2014 floods :
Profile of Flood Costs: winter 2013/14
Residential, temp accom and vehicles
32%
Business 21%
Local Govt, Emergency Services 5%
Flood Infrastr12%
Utilities 2%
Transport23%
Health, education
2%
Agriculture + W/H/T 3%
% total costs: £1.3 billion*
England and Wales Local Impacts: Somerset
Source: Parsons Brinkerhoff , BV and Somerset Rivers Authority. 2016
Residential19%
Business14%
Local Govt, Emergency
Services20%
Utilities 1%
Transport35%
Social 4%
Agriculture 7%
% total economic costs: £84m*
*Plus: ‘Qualitative’ assessment £35m
(extra 40%)
*Central estimate
Agricultural Flood Impact Observations
• Flood Areas, land class/soils• Flood characteristics• Existing FRM infrastructure• Land use, farming systems and
productivity• Physical impacts: outputs and
inputs• Financial and Economic values
and valuation • Resilience/Recovery/Adaptation
What’s the purpose?
So what?
What to do?
Issues and priorities
• Monitoring impacts • More primary impact data • Consistent
methods/protocols• Targeted research/data &
knowledge • Data sharing and repositories• Cost calculators• Guidance for agencies• Decision Support
Some references • Brémond P., Grelot F., Agenais A.L., Review Article: Economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture – review and analysis of existing methods, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,
13:2493–2512, 2013.
• Chatterton, J., Clarke, C., Daly, E., Dawks, S., Elding, C., Fenn, T., Hick, E., Miller, J., Morris, J., Ogunyoye, F. and Salado R. 2016. The costs and impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods. Report SC140025/R1. Environment Agency, Bristol.
• Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell S.. 2010. The Costs of the Summer 2007 floods in England. Report to the Environment Agency Science Project SC070039, Cranfield University, Bedford http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/SCHO1109BRJA-e-e.pdf
• Luisetti, T., Turner, R.K., Bateman, I.J., Morse-Jomes, S., Adams, C and Fonseca, L. 2011. Coastal and marine ecosystem services valuation for policy and management: Managed realignment case studies in England. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Management 54, 212-224.
• Molinari, D., Scorzini, A.R., Gallazzi, A., Ballio, F. 2019. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss, AGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementation . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-61 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
• Morris, J, Bannister, N., Hess, T.M., Gowing, D. J.G., Leeds-Harrison, P. B., Vivash, R., Wade, M. (2004) Integrated Washlands for Flood Defence and Biodiversity, Report to English Nature and Defra. English Nature Research Report Series No. 598. Peterborough: English Nature
• Morris, J. and Brewin, P. (2013) Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture: the spring 2012 floods in Somerset, England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. DOI10.1111/jfr3.12041
• Morris, J. Beedell, J, and Hess, T.M. (2014) Mobilising flood risk management services from rural land: principles and practice. Journal of Flood Risk Management. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12110
• Morris, J., Posthumus, H., Hess T.M., Gowing, D.J.G. and Rouquette, J.R. (2009) Watery land: the management of lowland floodplains in England. In Winter, M. and Lobley, M. (eds.) What is Land For? The Food, Fuel and Climate Change Debate. Earthscan. pp.320. ISBN 9781844077205.
• Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S., Parker, D., Morris, J., Tunstall, S., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J. and Owen D. (2013) Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management:A Manual for Economic Appraisal, Routledge, Abingdon, Oxford (Chapter 9 Agriculture)
• Pivot J.M., Martin P. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach. Journal of Hydrology, 267(1-2), 12-25, 2002.
• Posthumus H., Rouquette, J.R., Morris, J., Gowing, D.J.G., Hess T.M.. (2010) A framework for the assessment of ecosystem goods and services; a case study on lowland floodplains in England. Ecological Economics, 65, 151-1523
• Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T.M., Neville, D., Phillips, E. and Baylis, A. (2009). Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2009:1-8.
• Rouquette, J.R., Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T. M., Dawson, Q.L., and Gowing, D. J. G. 2011. Synergies and trade-offs in the management of lowland rural floodplains: An ecosystem services approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56:8, 1566-1581
• Rouquette, J.R., Posthumus, H.,Gowing, D.J.G., Tucker, G., Dawson, Hess, T.M and Morris, J. (2009) Valuing nature conservation interests on agricultural floodplains. J. Applied Ecology. 46, 2, 289-296
• Thorne, C., Evans, E. and Penning-Rowsell, E . (eds) (2006). Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks. London: Thomas Telford