Agricultural commodities - September quarter...

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2014

© Commonwealth of Australia 2014

Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth).

Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms.

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.

Cataloguing data This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as ABARES 2014, Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2014. CC BY 3.0.

ISBN No: 978-1-74323-203-3 (online) ISSN No: 189-5627 (online) ISBN No: 978-1-74323-204-0 (printed) ISSN No: 189-5619 (printed) ABARES project 43006

Internet Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2014 is available at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications.

Contact Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

Enquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be sent to [email protected].

The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 3 • September quarter 2014

Contents

Economic overview 6

Crops

Wheat 30

Coarse grains 37

Oilseeds 47

Sugar 56

Cotton 66

Horticulture 77

Livestock

Beef and veal 92

Sheep meat and wool 99

Pig meat 108

Chicken meat 112

Dairy 115

Trends in the size of Australian farms 122

Boxes

Foreign investment in the Australian dairy industry 21

Proportion of food production exported 25

Understanding ABARES agricultural commodity forecasts 27

Development of the Brazil ethanol industry 59

Government support and cotton production 68

Table grape exports 89

Statistical tables 133

Report extracts 175

ABARES contacts 179

2015

Outlook 20153–4 March, CanberraRegister your interest for Outlook 2015 to access earlybird rates and programme updates ABARES Outlook conference is recognised as Australia’s premier forum for decision-makers and stakeholders in the agriculture sector.

The theme of Outlook 2015 is The business of agriculture: producing for profit.

Be part of the ABARES Outlook 2015 conference with other leading public and private sector decision-makers in the agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food sectors. Examine the major issues for Australia’s primary industries; understand the short to long-term outlook for a range of commodities and explore industry issues.

Keynote national and international speakers will lead conversations on their areas of expertise. This is a rare opportunity to hear 70 speakers and chairs in conversation with more than 700 delegates across 14 sessions, all focused on meeting the challenges for Australia’s primary industries.

Register your interestEmail [email protected]

ContactMaree Finnegan Marketing and Events ManagerPhone +61 2 6272 2260


Economic overview

6 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 3 • September quarter 2014

Economic overviewFaraz Syed, Jenny Eather and Brian Moir

• Following growth of 3.1 per cent in 2013, world economic growth is assumed to rise to 3.3 per cent in 2014 and 3.6 per cent in 2015.

• Economic growth in OECD economies is expected to strengthen in 2014 and 2015. Continued accommodating monetary policy and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation are expected to provide support to economic activity in most OECD nations.

• The outlook for growth in developing countries has moderated as a result of inflationary pressures and supply side constraints. However, assumed global recovery is expected to provide some support to export-oriented developing countries.

• Economic growth in China is assumed to moderate, as the Chinese Government implements structural reforms.

• The Australian dollar remains historically high and is assumed to average around US90 cents in 2014–15.

Moderate economic growthEconomic conditions in Europe and the United States were mixed in the first half of 2014, but stronger private demand and improved labour market conditions aided recovery. Accommodating monetary policy and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation are expected to support economic activity in OECD countries. With interest rates low in most OECD nations, the Bank for International Settlements issued a warning that excessive risk-taking could lead to global economic instability when interest rates begin to rise in 2015. Economic activity in Japan has been adversely affected by a consumption tax increase, which could curtail growth over the outlook period.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.3 per cent in 2014 and improve to around 3.6 per cent in 2015. For OECD economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.9 per cent in 2014, before strengthening modestly to 2.3 per cent in 2015.

7

Economic overview


World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2015a20132011200920072005200320011999

Emerging economies continue to drive world economic growth, although the outlook is mixed. Inflation remains high in India and the Philippines. Export-oriented countries are expected to benefit modestly from assumed recovery in the United States and Europe. The assumed moderation of economic growth in China is also expected to slow export growth in emerging Asian economies.

Geopolitical tensions between the Russian Federation and its trading partners—including the European Union, the United States and Australia—are expected to adversely affect trade.

For developing economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 4.9 per cent in 2014 and 5.3 per cent in 2015.

Regional economic growth

%world

Russian Federation,Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20132014a

2015a


0

2

4

6

8

10

8

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsK i iKeymacroeconomicassumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptionsWorld unit 2012 2013 2014 a 2015 aWorld unit 2012 2013 2014 a 2015 aEconomic growthOECD % 1 2 1 4 1 9 2 3Economic growthOECD % 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3U i d S % 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 8United States % 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.8Japan % 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3Japan % 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3Western Europe % – 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.8Western Europe % 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.8– Germany % 0 9 0 5 1 7 1 8– Germany % 0.9 0.5 1.7 1.8France % 0 0 0 3 0 4 1 4– France % 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.4U it d Ki d % 0 3 1 8 3 4 3 0– United Kingdom % 0.3 1.8 3.4 3.0

– Italy % – 2.4 – 1.9 0.0 0.6ItalyKorea, Rep. of % 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.8Korea, Rep. of % 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.8New Zealand % 2 6 2 7 3 6 3 0New Zealand % 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.0Developing countries % 5 1 4 7 4 9 5 3Developing countries % 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3

OECD A i % 6 7 6 5 6 2 6 3– non‐OECD Asia % 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.3 South‐East Asia b % 6.2 5.2 4.6 5.3 South East Asia b

China c % 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.1 China c % 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.1Taiwan % 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.3 Taiwan % 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.3Singapore % 1 9 4 1 3 6 4 2 Singapore % 1.9 4.1 3.6 4.2India % 4 9 4 4 5 0 5 7 India % 4.9 4.4 5.0 5.7

L i A i– Latin America % 3.1 2.7 2.0 2.8Russian Federation % 3.4 1.3 0.0 1.0Russian Federation % 3.4 1.3 0.0 1.0Ukraine % 0.2 0.1 – 6.0 – 3.0Ukraine % 0.2 0.1 – 6.0 – 3.0Eastern Europe % 1 4 2 8 2 7 2 7Eastern Europe % 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.7W ld d % 3 0 3 1 3 3 3 6World d % 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6I fl tiInflationUnited States % 2.1 1.4 1.7 2.4United States % 2.1 1.4 1.7 2.4Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.2

unit 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 a 2014 15 aunit 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 a 2014–15 aAustraliaEconomic growth % 3.6 2.7 2.9 2.5Economic growth % 3.6 2.7 2.9 2.5Inflation % 2 4 2 3 2 6 2 7Inflation % 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7Interest rates % 6 2 5 2 4 6 4 5Interest rates g % 6.2 5.2 4.6 4.5

li hAustralian exchange ratesgUS$/A$ 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.90US$/A$ 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.90TWI for A$ h 76 77 70 69TWI for A$ h 76 77 70 69ABARES ti b I d i M l i Phili i Th il d d Vi t E l da ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes

Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2013 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross g g g g p g p p y ( ) y gdomestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States g Large business weighted average variable rate on creditrates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit

t t di h B M 1970 100outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation ; ; y ; gfor Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australiafor Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

9

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesReal gross domestic product in the United States expanded 2.5 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2014, compared with 1.9 per cent in the March quarter and 2.2 per cent in 2013 as a whole. Consumption, business and residential investment and government expenditure all strengthened in the June quarter, recovering from the impact of an unusually harsh winter in the March quarter.

Private sector demand continued to expand steadily in the first half of 2014. Consumer spending rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.3 per cent in the June quarter, compared with 2.2 per cent in the March quarter and 2.4 per cent in 2013 as a whole. Growth in consumer spending has been fairly steady, expanding at an average of 2.1 per cent a year for the four years to 2013.

US GDP growth and unemployment

Gross domestic product, annualised quarter-on-quarterchange

%

Unemployment, end of quarter

Jun2014

Dec2013

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

–2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the June quarter 2014, growing at a year-on-year rate of 3.5 per cent. This was virtually the same growth rate as in the March quarter and higher than the 2.9 per cent in 2013 as a whole. Exports also increased by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2014, following growth of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter and 2.2 per cent in 2013. However, imports increased more than exports in the June quarter, weakening the balance of trade.

New house prices declined by 3 per cent during the three months following their March 2014 peak but remained 4 per cent above June 2013 levels. Housing starts recovered strongly in the June quarter 2014 after weakening in the previous two quarters. Housing starts have been increasing since 2009 but remain relatively low.

Non-farm employment increased by about 2.5 million positions in the year to June 2014 and by 209 000 positions in July 2014. The unemployment rate increased from 6.1 per cent in June to 6.2 per cent in July but remains at the lowest level for six years and is more than 1 percentage point below its July 2013 level. Weaker labour force participation caused part of the unemployment rate decline, but the figure for employment as a proportion of the whole population increased slightly in this period.

10

Economic overview


US housing starts, quarterly

’000units

Jun2014

Dec2013

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

Most indicators of economic activity, including employment, construction and trade, were positive in the first half of 2014. Further Federal Reserve cuts in asset purchases are expected in the remainder of 2014, but they are likely to have only limited effect on economic growth. US economic growth is assumed to strengthen to 2.2 per cent in 2014 and to 2.8 per cent in 2015.

ChinaEconomic growth in China moderated in the first half of 2014. Real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 7.4 per cent in the March quarter, before strengthening slightly to 7.5 per cent in the June quarter. This compares with 7.7 per cent for 2013 as a whole.

Slower growth partly reflected a weakening housing market. After growing by 11.6 per cent in 2013, housing starts (measured by area of floor space) decreased by 19.8 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of the year. Growth in average house prices also slowed considerably, increasing by an average of 4 per cent year-on-year in the month of June, down from almost 10 per cent in December 2013. In month-on-month terms, housing prices fell in both May and June 2014.

Selected housing market indicators, year-on-year change

% %

Area of housing started

Average new houseprices a (right axis)

a Average change in price indexes in 70 large and medium Chinese cities, excludes public housing.

–20

0

20

40

60

May2014

Mar2014

Jan2014

Nov2013

Sep2013

Jul2013

May2013

Mar2013

3

6

9

12

15

11

Economic overview


The housing sector remains weak, but various economic indicators showed signs of recovery in general economic activity in the June quarter 2014, partly reflecting stimulus measures aimed at avoiding a sharp downturn in growth. Stimulus measures included tax breaks for small and medium enterprises, increased infrastructure spending and reduced reserve ratios for bank lending.

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) strengthened in recent months, increasing to 51.7 in July 2014, up from 51 in June and a low of 50.2 in February. A PMI above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector. Chinese export performance also improved in the June quarter, as the real value of exports grew by 5 per cent year-on-year. This followed a contraction of almost 4 per cent in the March quarter. Stronger world economic growth is expected to support export growth over the remainder of 2014–15, although a return to the levels achieved before 2012 is unlikely.

China’s real export growth and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index

Exports quarterly year-on-year growth

%

Manufacturing PMI index – quarterly average(right axis)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

index

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Jun2014

Dec2013

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

Growth in retail sales has been relatively strong, growing at 12.3 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2014, up slightly from 12 per cent in the previous quarter. Over the same period investment in fixed assets expanded at 17.2 per cent year-on-year, compared with 17.6 per cent in March.

Inflation remains relatively low, averaging 2.2 per cent in the June quarter 2014. Inflation has been below the Chinese Government’s target of 3.5 per cent since April 2012. Moderate rates of inflation give policymakers leeway to implement further stimulus measures if needed to support economic activity.

However, additional stimulus would delay progress on the government’s reform agenda, announced in 2013. Financial system reform is an important part of the agenda. The government previously used rapid credit expansion, together with fiscal stimulus, to boost short-term growth. This has led to increased financial sector vulnerabilities and over-investment in some sectors. Achieving much-needed structural reforms without allowing growth to fall so low as to threaten employment will remain a challenge.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.3 per cent in 2014, moderating further to 7.1 per cent in 2015.

12

Economic overview


JapanEconomic growth in Japan decelerated in the June quarter 2014. Economic activity contracted by 0.1 per cent year-on-year, after growing by 3 per cent in the March quarter and 1.5 per cent in 2013 as a whole.

The declining economic activity largely reflected a fall in household consumption. It contracted by 2.7 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2014, compared with growth of 3.5 per cent in the March quarter and 2.4 per cent in the December quarter 2013. In late 2013 and early 2014 household consumption grew rapidly as households brought forward purchases, particularly of durable goods, ahead of an increase in the value added tax at the beginning of April 2014.

Weak household consumption in the June quarter was widely anticipated. It reflected a change in the timing of purchases rather than a decrease in consumer sentiment so is likely to be temporary. However, a large increase in June quarter inventories indicates that many businesses had expected consumption to remain stronger. Businesses may adjust production downward in the coming quarters as a result.

Private non-residential investment fell quarter-on-quarter in the June quarter 2014 but remained 3.8 per cent higher than the same quarter of the previous year. This follows growth of 11.6 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter. Private non-residential investment contracted 1.5 per cent in 2013 as a whole.

The Bank of Japan’s June 2014 Tankan survey gave a subdued picture of business sentiment. Only about 21 per cent of surveyed businesses considered conditions favourable, down from 25 per cent in the March survey. Businesses also reported lower expected profits for the 2014 Japanese financial year (1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015), on average forecasting a fall in profits of 5.4 per cent.

Between January 2013 and mid August 2014, the yen depreciated about 15 per cent against the US dollar. Despite the weaker yen, exports and industrial production weakened in the June quarter 2014. The seasonally adjusted index of industrial production fell by 3.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the June quarter.

The value of merchandise exports grew by 0.1 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter, down from 6.6 per cent in March. In contrast, imports have been increasing more rapidly. In the June quarter 2014, Japan’s trade deficit increased 24 per cent year-on-year to 2.5 trillion yen.

Japan quarterly value of trade (year-on-year change) and exchange rate

Exports

% yen/US$

Exchange rate(right axis)

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

10

20

30

40

50

Imports

Jun2014

Dec2013

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2011

Jun2011

Dec2010

Jun2010

13

Economic overview


Accommodating monetary policy is likely to continue to support the economy in the short term. Consumer prices increased by 3.6 per cent in the June quarter 2014, after increasing by 1.5 per cent in March. This reflects the temporary effects of the value added tax increase and increases in the prices of imported goods, so meeting the annual inflation target of 2 per cent is likely to remain challenging over the outlook period.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 1.3 per cent in both 2014 and 2015.

Western EuropeEconomic recovery in Western Europe remained mixed in the first half of 2014, with signs of slowing in the June quarter. Real gross domestic product decreased in Germany and Italy by 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the June quarter 2014. The contraction in the German economy was from a high level of production in the first quarter, which was largely attributed to a mild winter.

Growth in France was slow in the second quarter, expanding at a year-on-year rate of 0.1 per cent, following year-on-year growth of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter 2014. In the United Kingdom, economic activity expanded at a year-on-year rate of 5.5 per cent in the June quarter, up from 3.6 per cent in the March quarter. This was its fastest growth rate in the past four years.

UK domestic demand was strong in the June quarter 2014, expanding at a year-on-year rate of 5.2 per cent. The increase is largely attributable to the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of UK gross domestic product. Domestic demand in Germany expanded only modestly in the June quarter 2014 at a year-on-year rate of 1.4 per cent. However, domestic demand in Italy contracted for the 12th consecutive quarter in June 2014.

Exports from Western Europe were weak in the June quarter 2014. In the United Kingdom, real exports of goods and services declined at a year-on-year rate of 2.5 per cent, following a rise of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter. In France, exports of goods and services expanded at a year-on-year rate of 1.3 per cent in the June quarter 2014, following growth of 4.2 per cent in the March quarter. The United Kingdom and France recorded trade deficits in the first half of 2014, but Germany continued to record a surplus. The value of German exports from January to July 2014 was 3.3 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Export growth in Western Europe could become more sluggish toward the end of 2014, resulting from tensions with the Russian Federation. Export-oriented countries such as Germany are likely to be the most affected. In the first half of 2014 exports from Germany to the Russian Federation fell by a year-on-year rate of around 16 per cent. EU economic sanctions placed on the Russian Federation in July will restrict trade further.

Support to most European economies is expected through gradual easing of fiscal austerity measures, because sovereign debt levels have stabilised in 2014.

14

Economic overview


For example, sovereign debt in Germany as a percentage of gross domestic product was 77 per cent in the March quarter 2014, compared with 81 per cent a year earlier. However, unemployment in Western Europe remains high, although the average rate of 8.5 per cent in June 2014 was slightly lower than the rate of 8.9 per cent in June 2013.

Inflation in selected European countries

%

United KingdomItalyEuropean UnionFranceGermany

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jul2014

Mar2014

Nov2013

Jul2013

Mar2013

Nov2012

Jul2012

Mar2012

Accommodating monetary policy is also expected to provide support. The European Central Bank recently introduced measures for banks to encourage lending, such as discount loans and penalties for holding excess reserves at the central bank. Overall inflation in the Euro area was around 0.5 per cent in July 2014, significantly below the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to expand by 1.5 per cent in 2014. This is largely driven by higher growth in the United Kingdom, slow recovery in France and moderate growth in Germany. Italy’s economy is expected to stop contracting in 2014 and is assumed to resume growing in 2015. Overall economic growth in Western Europe is assumed to average around 1.8 per cent in 2015.

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic activity in non-OECD Asia was mixed in the first half of 2014, with increasing consumer price pressures in some countries including India and the Philippines. Global recovery improved external demand in export-oriented countries.

Merchandise exports from Taiwan and Hong Kong increased in the first half of 2014. Exports from Hong Kong increased at a year-on-year rate of 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2014. Exports from Taiwan expanded in the first half of 2014 at a year-on-year rate of 2.0 per cent. This increase in Taiwan’s exports is partly attributable to improved conditions in Europe; exports to Europe expanded in the first six months of 2014 at a year-on-year rate of 5.6 per cent. Real gross domestic product in Taiwan expanded at a year-on-year rate of 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2014.

Growth in Singapore slowed in the June quarter 2014 to a year-on-year rate of 2.1 per cent, following significantly higher growth of 4.7 per cent in the first quarter. The moderated growth largely reflects lower manufacturing output.

15

Economic overview


Indonesian gross domestic product was 5.2 per cent higher in the first half of 2014 than in the first half of 2013. Since 2008 Indonesia’s average annual growth has been around 5.8 per cent. Exports declined at a year-on-year rate of 2.5 per cent in the June quarter 2014. Gross fixed investment also slowed in the June 2014 quarter, growing at a year-on-year rate of 4.5 per cent, compared with 5.1 per cent in the first quarter.

In Thailand, political uncertainty has adversely affected industries such as tourism and manufacturing. Merchandise exports expanded slightly in the June quarter 2014, following a contraction in the March quarter.

Exchange rates in many Asian economies were relatively stable in the first half of 2014, following a period of volatility caused by capital outflow in the second half of 2013. The reversal of capital flow in 2014 has stabilised currencies. However, inflation remains relatively high. For example, consumer prices in India increased in July 2014 at a year-on-year rate of 8.0 per cent, following an increase of 7.5 per cent in June. The Reserve Bank of India aims to keep inflation below 8 per cent; with business confidence high after the elections in May 2014, interest rates might be increased in late 2014 if price pressures persist. Inflation in Malaysia and the Philippines remained high in the June quarter 2014, at 3.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively. The central banks of these two economies increased interest rates in the first half of 2014 to ease inflation.

Assumed recovery in some European countries and growth in the United States is expected to strengthen demand for exports from many Asian countries. However, moderation in demand from China may partly offset this expected increase in export demand. For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 6.2 per cent in 2014 and to increase slightly to 6.3 per cent in 2015 as world economic recovery accelerates.

Economic growth in non-OECD Asia

2015a

2014a

2013

Taiwan

India

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

16

Economic overview


Economic prospects in AustraliaEconomic growth was close to trend in Australia in 2013–14, growing at 2.9 per cent. It strengthened in the first half of 2014 after a sluggish second half of 2013, when the economy grew below trend. Real gross domestic product increased at a year-on-year rate of 3.4 per cent in the March quarter and 3.1 per cent in the June quarter 2014. Mining investment has started to ease, but the volume of resource exports remains high. Overall, the real export value of goods and services increased at a year-on-year rate of 9.4 per cent in the March quarter, followed by 5.3 per cent in the June quarter.

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at the historical low of 2.5 per cent in the 13 months to September 2014. Low interest rates are expected to be maintained in the short term.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian economy is assumed to expand at 2.5 per cent in 2014–15.

Australian economic indicators

%

Economic growth Inflation rate

Interest rate b

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014–15a2013–142012–13

InflationThe consumer price index increased by 3.0 per cent in the June quarter 2014, following a 2.9 per cent increase in the March quarter.

The most significant price rises in the June quarter included medical and hospital services (up 4.6 per cent), tobacco (3.1 per cent) and new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers (1.6 per cent). Partially offsetting these rises were price falls for domestic holiday travel and accommodation (down 3.8 per cent), automotive fuel (2.7 per cent) and telecommunication equipment and services (1.6 per cent).

Inflation for the year 2013–14 was 2.6 per cent, slightly higher than 2012–13—partly because of an increase in the price of imported goods and services. The repeal of the carbon tax is expected to reduce electricity prices and, according to Treasury estimates, reduce inflation by around 0.75 percentage points. In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, inflation is expected to average around 2.7 per cent in 2014–15.

Short-term direction of the Australian dollarThe Australian dollar averaged US92 cents in 2013–14, compared with US103 cents in 2012–13. It showed some volatility in late 2013 and early 2014 but remained relatively stable at US93 cents for five consecutive months from April to August 2014 before depreciating to US90 cents in mid September.

17

Economic overview


The recent movement in the Australian dollar partly reflects demand for Australian dollar denominated assets. Net capital flow into the government sector, largely purchases of Commonwealth Government Securities, increased from $4.4 billion in the first half of 2013 to $19.6 billion in the first half of 2014. This was partly because the interest rate differentials between Australia and other OECD nations were high.

Several factors indicate that these interest rate differentials will continue, at least in the near term. First, central banks of OECD nations such as the United States, the United Kingdom, the eurozone countries and Japan have indicated they are unlikely to change their accommodating monetary policy settings in the near term. This will limit potential for reductions in interest rate differentials with Australia. Second, economic recovery in OECD nations has been slow and Australia’s economic growth has been higher. This has resulted in positive sentiment toward Australian dollar assets.

These factors are expected to support the value of the Australian dollar, but it could come under pressure from declining terms of trade. Between the start of 2012 and June 2014, Australia’s terms of trade declined by 14.2 per cent. This largely reflected a 17.2 per cent decline in world commodity prices in Australian dollar terms over the same period. In response, the Australian dollar depreciated by around 10 per cent over the same period. Any further significant fall in prices of Australia’s major exports would further weaken the value of the Australian dollar.

Assets denominated in US dollars have generally been considered safe havens and capital flow is directed to them in uncertain times. Any increase in geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region or the Middle East could lead to increased capital flow to the United States and consequently weaken the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Weaker than assumed growth in China would also place downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

Australian dollar and interest rate differentials a

US$/AUDInterest rate differentials (right axis)

US$ %

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jul2014

Sep2013

Nov2012

Jan2012

Mar2011

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

a Average interest rate differentials between Australian Commonwealth Government Securities and Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average US90 cents and TWI 69 in 2014–15. However, considerable uncertainty remains over the outlook period.

18

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural and fisheries exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to decrease by 5.3 per cent in 2014–15, following an estimated increase of 5.4 per cent in 2013–14. The forecast decline in 2014–15 reflects expected falls in crop and livestock production from the estimated record highs in 2013–14. In 2014–15 crop and livestock production are expected to decline by 7.9 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.

The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decline by 3.6 per cent in 2014–15, following a rise of 7.4 per cent in 2013–14. Higher export prices in 2014–15 for beef, wool and sheep meat are expected to be more than offset by lower prices for wheat, cotton, barley, sugar and dairy products.

Earnings from farm exports are forecast to fall by 7.7 per cent in 2014–15 to around $37.9 billion. The forecast fall in farm export earnings largely reflects expected falls in the export earnings of barley (down 42 per cent), canola (41 per cent), cotton (29 per cent), mutton (20 per cent) and wheat (8 per cent). Export earnings are forecast to increase for lamb (up 2 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (7 per cent) and live sheep (24 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to be around $19.8 billion in 2014–15, down from $22.8 billion in 2013–14. The export value of livestock and livestock products is forecast to decrease by 1.1 per cent in 2014–15 to $18.1 billion, following an increase of 22.6 per cent to $18.3 billion in 2013–14.

For fisheries products, export earnings are forecast to decrease by 3.8 per cent in 2014–15 to around $1.3 billion, following an increase of 11 per cent in 2013–14. Export earnings in 2014–15 are forecast to rise by 62 per cent for salmonids, 6 per cent for tuna and 8 per cent for live, fresh and chilled abalone.

19

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural commodity exports a

WorldpriceValue ValueVolume

2014–15

2013–14

2014–15f

$b

a Wheat, cotton, sugar, canola, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returns or domestic prices in A$. Annual export values do not necessarily reflect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates. f ABARES forecast.

Wholemilk powder

Skim milk powder

Mutton

Cheese

Live feeder/slaughter cattle

Canola

Barley

Sugar

Lamb

Cotton

Wine

Wool

Wheat

Beef and veal

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

–2%

–8%

–1%

1%

–29%

2%

0%

–42%

–41%

7%

–2%

–20%

–28%

–20%

–5%

–1%

–5%

–1%

–21%

–5%

6%

–32%

–28%

0%

–2%

–28%

–5%

6%

12%

–10%

5%

2%

–23%

7%

–18%

–15%

–16%

6%

–11%

11%

–25%

–28%

$6.26b

$6.10b

$2.88b

$1.85b

$2.35b

$1.47b

$1.36b

$2.20b

$1.93b

$0.78b

$0.77b

$0.75b

$0.71b

$0.53b

$6.15b

$5.61b

$2.86b

$1.87b

$1.67b

$1.50b

$1.36b

$1.28b

$1.14b

$0.83b

$0.75b

$0.60b

$0.51b

$0.43b

20

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014–10 –11 –12 –13 –14 s –15 f 2013–14 2014–15

Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.90 –10.7 –2.2

Farm index 100.0 110.5 110.9 108.4 116.4 112.2 7.4 –3.6Value of exportsFarm b A$m 27 803 31 873 36 346 38 017 41 115 37 933 8.2 –7.7– crops A$m 14 899 17 377 21 611 23 062 22 786 19 801 –1.2 –13.1– livestock A$m 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 132 22.6 –1.1Fisheries products A$m 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 255 11.0 –3.8

Farm A$m 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 569 53 354 50 323 9.9 –5.7– crops A$m 21 265 25 336 26 251 28 461 30 200 26 763 6.1 –11.4– livestock A$m 18 529 21 038 21 180 20 107 23 154 23 560 15.2 1.8Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 970 4 099 3 925 3 922 4 234 4 405 8.0 4.0– forestry A$m 1 779 1 851 1 620 1 509 1 715 1 884 13.6 9.8– fisheries A$m 2 191 2 248 2 305 2 413 2 519 2 521 4.4 0.1Volume of farm production c index 108.0 112.8 118.5 119.5 126.0 119.3 5.4 –5.3– crops index 115.3 123.3 135.1 133.0 139.8 128.7 5.1 –7.9– livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 110.9 108.6 5.9 –2.1

Crop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 841 23 608 23 799 –1.0 0.8Sheep million 68.1 73.1 74.7 75.5 72.0 71.4 –4.6 –0.8Cattle million 26.6 28.5 28.4 29.3 27.6 27.1 –5.8 –1.8Farm costs A$m 34 490 36 559 37 263 37 451 38 338 38 284 2.4 –0.1Net cash income d A$m 10 096 14 759 15 241 16 317 20 358 17 534 24.8 –13.9Net value of farm production e A$m 5 304 9 816 10 169 11 118 15 016 12 040 35.1 –19.8Farmers’ terms of trade index 88.4 96.3 93.2 95.5 99.2 97.2 3.9 –2.0

Agriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 351 337 321 302 313 na 3.7 naAustralia ’000 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482 na 0.8 naa Base: 2009–10 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Chain weighted basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. d Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. e Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reserve Bank of Australia

Employment

MajorindicatorsofAustralia'sagricultureandnaturalresourcessector

Australian export unit returns a

Gross value of production b

Production area and livestock numbers

% change previous year

21

Economic overview


Foreign investment in the Australian dairy industryOwen McCarthy and Brian Moir

The Australian dairy manufacturing industry has undergone consolidation since the first stages of industry deregulation in the 1980s. Almost 90 per cent of Australia’s raw milk purchases are made by six firms (Murray Goulburn, Fonterra, Lion, Warrnambool Cheese and Butter, Parmalat and Bega Cheese). Before completion of deregulation in 2000, the sector was dominated by farmer-owned cooperatives. However, in the past decade public, private and multinational companies have become more significant. Farmer-owned cooperatives, of which Murray Goulburn is the largest, now account for only 35 per cent of raw milk purchases.

Since deregulation, foreign interest in Australian dairy manufacturing has risen and some high profile acquisitions have occurred. Australia has been an attractive destination for investment for several reasons. Aside from a stable and transparent system of government that ensures low sovereign risks, Australia has well-established trade links with Asian markets. Additionally, transport and communications infrastructure and markets for farm inputs and outputs are well developed.

Regulation of foreign investment in Australia

Most private foreign investors intending to acquire a substantial interest in an Australian business valued above $248 million must submit proposals to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). The monetary threshold for review is indexed on 1 January each year to the GDP price deflator in the Australian National Accounts for the previous year. However, under bilateral trade agreements with the United States and New Zealand, a higher threshold of $1078 million applies for private investment by these countries in non-sensitive sectors, including agriculture.

When newly signed trade agreements come into force, this higher threshold will also apply to private investors from the Republic of Korea and Japan. In contrast, all foreign government investors are required to submit proposals regardless of the investment’s value. In the past decade, investment in the dairy sector by major foreign firms has generally exceeded the threshold and has consequently been subject to review by the FIRB.

Under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975 (FATA), the FIRB is authorised to review foreign investment proposals and advise the government whether proposals are contrary to Australia’s national interest. If necessary, the Treasurer can impose conditions or disallow proposed acquisitions. Australia’s national interest is not defined in the FATA or other legislation; however, the FIRB considers such factors as national security, competition, Australian Government policies, effects on the economy and the community and the character of the potential investor.

When appropriate, the FIRB seeks advice from relevant government agencies, such as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The ACCC assesses whether proposed mergers or acquisitions are likely to result in a substantial lessening of competition.

continued ...

22

Economic overview


Foreign investment in the Australian dairy industry continued

Foreign investment in Australian dairy processing

The largest milk processor is Australian farmer-owned cooperative Murray Goulburn, which buys around 33 per cent of raw milk supplies. However, around half the raw milk produced in Australia is processed by foreign-owned firms. The largest of these are New Zealand-owned Fonterra and Japanese-owned Lion, which collectively buy around 29 per cent of Australia’s raw milk supplies. Other major foreign-owned milk processors include Parmalat and Warrnambool Cheese and Butter. Fonterra, Murray Goulburn and Warrnambool Cheese and Butter focus on processing raw milk in south-eastern Australia, while Lion and Parmalat operate in south-eastern Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Raw milk purchases by processors in Australia, 2012–13

Murray Goulburn 33%Fonterra 18%Lion 11%Warrnambool Cheeseand Butter 10%Parmalat 9%Bega Cheese 7%Other 12%

Source: Productivity Commission 2014

Fonterra is cooperatively owned by New Zealand dairy farmers and is one of the largest dairy manufacturing and exporting companies in the world. It has interests in Asia, the Americas, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. In 2013 Fonterra invested $6 million to increase exporting and processing capabilities at two plants in Tasmania and $6.5 million to upgrade cheese processing equipment at its Stanhope facility in Victoria. In April 2014 Fonterra announced an investment of more than $30 million in milk processing at its Cobden site in Victoria to enable it to fulfil a new supply contract with Woolworths.

The Japanese-owned Lion, formerly National Foods, was acquired by the Philippine company San Miguel in 2005. Japan’s Kirin Holdings, a major brewing company, bought National Foods in 2007 and, through it, Dairy Farmers Group in 2008. National Foods and the brewery Lion Nathan were merged in 2009 and have operated under the Lion name since 2011.

continued ...

23

Economic overview



In 2010 Lion announced a $50 million investment to double the capacity of its dairy product plant at Morwell, Victoria. The following year, it announced it was allocating $140 million to upgrade its cheese production facility at Burnie, Tasmania. Lion’s consolidation of holdings has involved closure of some sites, but the company expects this to enhance its long-term performance.

Parmalat was the first major foreign-owned dairy processor in Australia. In 1998 the then Italian-owned Parmalat bought Pauls, a company with operations in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Parmalat remained Italian-owned until July 2011, when the French company Lactalis took over the international Parmalat group with an 83 per cent shareholding. Parmalat remains a major force in Australian dairy manufacturing, owning several brands including Pauls, Vaalia, Ice Break, Oak and Breaka. In February 2014 Parmalat unveiled a $25 million upgrade of its dairy manufacturing plant in Rowville, Victoria, that included installation of new ultra high temperature lines and new filling machines. In April 2014 Parmalat announced it had acquired the Western Australian family-owned fruit juice and dairy processor Harvey Fresh for around $117 million, with the aim of improving its capacity to export to Asia.

In February 2014 Canadian firm Saputo acquired an 88 per cent share in Australia’s oldest dairy producer, Warrnambool Cheese and Butter. Saputo is one of the world’s largest producers of cheese, milk and cream products. Saputo expanded into Australia to increase its revenues by servicing the domestic market and by building a platform to expand its operations in the Asia–Pacific region. Saputo aims to expand Warrnambool Cheese and Butter’s operations by increasing manufacturing capacity and milk intake and by improving operational efficiency and product innovation.

Foreign ownership in dairy farming

In contrast to the dairy processing sector, Australian dairy farming is largely Australian owned.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics conducted surveys of land and water ownership in Australian agriculture as at 31 December 2010 and 30 June 2013 (ABS 2014, 2011). Each survey collected information from around 11 000 farm businesses across all agricultural industries. Published results show the level of Australian and foreign ownership of agricultural businesses (by number), agricultural land (hectares) and water entitlements (megalitres) and are disaggregated by state and industry. Information was not collected on the nationalities or other details of the foreign owners of agricultural land in Australia, nor on the volume or value of production from foreign-owned land.

The survey results show that in 2013, 7736 or 99.5 per cent of agricultural businesses in the dairy industry were fully Australian owned (Table 1), while around 0.5 per cent were wholly or partly foreign owned. In contrast, in 2010, 2.1 per cent of agricultural businesses in the dairy industry were wholly or partly foreign owned. At the end of June 2013, 2.3 million hectares of dairy farming land was fully Australian owned, compared with 56 000 hectares (2.4 per cent) that was wholly or partly foreign owned. The proportion of whole or part foreign-owned dairy farming land was higher in 2010, at around 123 000 hectares (4.9 per cent). In contrast, for all agricultural industries, the proportion of agricultural land wholly or partly foreign owned increased from an average of 11.3 per cent in 2010 to 12.4 per cent in 2013.

continued ...

24

Economic overview



In 2010 whole or part foreign ownership of water entitlements in the dairy industry was 2.7 per cent. This compares with 8.6 per cent of water entitlements in the dairy industry that were wholly or partly foreign owned in 2010. For all agricultural industries, the percentage of water entitlements that were wholly or partly foreign owned increased from 8.5 per cent in 2010 to 13.7 per cent in 2013.

TABLE 1 Australian and foreign ownership of businesses, land and water entitlements in the dairy industry

Date

Total in dairy

industry

100% Australian

owned

Whole or part foreign

% fully Australian

% whole or part foreign

Agricultural businesses

no. no. no. % %

31 December 2010 9 137 8 889 196 97.3 2.1

30 June 2013 7 777 7 736 37 99.5 0.5

Agricultural land

ha ha ha % %

31 December 2010 2 518 356 2 373 084 123 482 94.2 4.9

30 June 2013 2 355 605 2 296 321 55 824 97.5 2.4

Water entitlements

ML ML ML % %

31 December 2010 1 617 363 1 478 380 138 983 91.4 8.6

30 June 2013 1 395 519 1 340 633 37 999 96.1 2.7

Note: The sum of Australian plus foreign owned does not equal the total in all cases because some ownership is recorded as ‘unknown’. Sources: ABS 2014, 2011

References

ABS 2014, Agricultural land and water ownership, June 2013, cat. no. 7127.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, available at abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/32E9BB779DABA3C1CA257905001453BC.

ABS 2011, Agricultural land and water ownership, December 2010 cat. no.7127.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, available at abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/66FF76EDEFB7BEC3CA257CFB00159B30?opendocument.

Productivity Commission 2014, Relative costs of doing business in Australia: dairy product manufacturing, interim report, Productivity Commission, Canberra.

http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/32E9BB779DABA3C1CA257905001453BC

http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/32E9BB779DABA3C1CA257905001453BC

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/66FF76EDEFB7BEC3CA257CFB00159B30?opendocument

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/66FF76EDEFB7BEC3CA257CFB00159B30?opendocument

25

Economic overview


Proportion of food production exportedAustralia exports more than half of its food production to overseas markets. Using the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published data, ABARES estimates the share of food production exported from 2010–11 to 2012–13 to have averaged around 58 per cent. This compares with an ABARES estimate of 54 per cent made in 2010 for the period 2006–07 to 2008–09 (Penm et al. 2010).

Percentage of food production exported, average for 2010–11 and 2012–13

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Domestic consumption

Export $7b

78% 72% 14% 65% 44% 34% 58%

$1.2b

$7b $7.1b

$3.9b

$2.2b

$39.9b

Total food production

Seafood

Dairy products

Beef

Horticulture

Sugar

Wheat

Estimation method

ABARES derives its estimates of the proportion of food production exported using a methodology similar to that used to calculate the proportion of agricultural production exported. It excludes non-food commodities such as wool and cotton from the calculation and includes seafood production and exports. It uses ABS published data on seafood exports and ABARES published estimates of seafood production in addition to ABS published data on the value and volume of farm production and exports.

In calculating the proportion of production exported, the volume exported is converted back to the equivalent unprocessed volume—if downstream processing is involved. For example, all meat export volumes are converted from shipped weight to carcass weight. By dividing the equivalent unprocessed export volume by food production, the share of production exported can be calculated for each food product.

The gross value of total food production can be calculated by adding the value of production for each food product and then subtracting the value of sales in the sector. Sales in the sector are subtracted to avoid double counting.

Finally, the percentage of total food production exported is calculated by dividing the estimated wholesale value of total food exports by the gross value of total food production. This methodology is explained in more detail in Thompson (2014).

continued ...

26

Economic overview


Proportion of food production exported continued

Percentage of food production exported, three-year average (2010–11 to 2012–13)

Production Exports Exports share

Volume unit

Volume Gross value ($m)

Volume Gross value a ($m)

%

Grains and oilseeds

Wheat kt 26 724 6 994 20 907 5 471 78

Barley kt 7 896 1 838 5 453 1 270 69

Rice kt 934 241 431 111 46

Grain sorghum kt 2 134 465 985 215 46

Canola kt 3 309 1 771 2 427 1 299 73

Pulses kt 2 445 947 1 871 784 83

Other grains kt 1 879 527 225 50 10

Other oilseeds kt 1 608 330 563 102 31

Industrial crops

Sugar cane b kt 28 595 1 190 20 501 853 72

Wine grapes c kt 1 607 765 1 049 499 65

Other crop exports d 1 231

Horticulture

Fruit and nuts excl. wine grapes 3 549 591 17

Vegetables 3 482 366 11

Livestock and livestock products

Beef e kt 2 164 7 145 1 403 4 630 65

Sheep meat e kt 565 2 365 346 1 364 58

Pig meat e kt 349 929 34 91 10

Poultry e kt 1 030 2 123 40 83 4

Live cattle and sheep ’000 3 099 929 3 099 929 100

Dairy f ML 9 260 3 869 4 035 1 686 44

Other livestock products g 791

Other livestock exports h 638

Seafood 2 214 747 34

Gross value of food production 42 462

less sales within the sector 2 548

Gross value of food sales to other sectors 39 914 23 011 57.65a Obtained by multiplying the gross value of production by the percentage of production exported for each commodity. b Export volume is converted from sugar to sugar cane. c Export volume is converted from wine to wine grapes. d Other crop exports include vegetable oil, confectionary, biscuits, beverages (excluding wine). e Export volume is converted from shipped weight to carcass weight. f Export volume of dairy products (including butter, cheese and milk powder) is converted to liquid milk equivalent. g Other livestock products include eggs, honey and animal offal and fats. h Other livestock exports include eggs, honey, animal offal and fats, sausages, canned and preserved meat. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

References

Penm, J, Rees, G & Moir, B 2010, ‘Proportion of agricultural and food production exported’, in Australian commodities, December quarter 2010, vol. 17, no. 4, Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, pp. 646–49.

Thompson, N 2014, ‘Proportion of agricultural production exported’, in Agricultural commodities, June quarter 2014, vol. 4, no. 2, Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, pp. 38–40.

27

Economic overview


Understanding ABARES agricultural commodity forecastsABARES presents its forecasts for production, consumption, prices and exports of specific agricultural commodities as point forecasts. These forecasts are based on an economic assessment of data and information from various sources, supported by discussions with industry experts, use of quantitative analytical tools and professional judgement. ABARES depends on information available at the time it makes its forecasts, so forecasts often differ from actual outcomes.

Price forecasts and actual outcomes of selected agricultural commodities, 2013–14

Commodity Unit2013–14

actual September

2013 a December

2013 a March

2014 a

forecast error % b

forecast error % b

forecast error % b

Wheat US$/t 317 305 4 315 1 305 4

Barley US$/t 242 235 3 243 0 240 1

Cotton c USc/lb 91 90 1 86 5 88 3

Beef Ac/kg 293 305 4 305 4 290 1

Lamb Ac/kg 476 445 7 445 7 445 7

Wool Ac/kg 1 070 1 100 3 1 100 3 1 100 3

Cheese US$/t 4 817 4 260 12 4 400 9 4 800 0

a Release time of ABARES forecasts. b Expressed as a percentage of actual outcome. c August–July years.

A key reason for differences between forecasts and actual outcomes is that ABARES has to make assumptions about factors that can affect outcomes. As more information becomes available, ABARES updates its earlier assumptions and revises forecasts. ABARES forecasts are therefore conditional on information available at the time.

Differences between forecasts and actual outcomes also reflect the effects of unforeseen events. These can include policy changes, macroeconomic developments, climatic or seasonal conditions and demand and supply disruptions.

For example, in September 2013 ABARES forecast world dairy product prices to increase slightly in 2013–14 despite forecasting an increase in global milk production. ABARES expected firm growth in import demand from the developing countries of Asia to drive the forecast price rises. It forecast the world cheese price to increase by 2.7 per cent in 2013–14 and average US$4260 a tonne.

However, import demand from China was stronger than expected in the first half of 2013–14 after domestic food safety issues resulted in a significant contraction in Chinese milk production. This placed greater upward pressure on world dairy product prices. ABARES took this into account and subsequently revised upward its 2013–14 forecasts of world dairy product prices.

When preparing Australian agricultural production forecasts, ABARES takes into account Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook information and Queensland Alliance for Agriculture & Food Innovation yield forecasts. Variations in these seasonal and yield forecasts affect ABARES domestic agricultural production forecasts.

continued ...

28

Economic overview


Understanding ABARES agricultural commodity forecasts continued

Exchange rate movements can significantly affect agricultural prices and export earnings. Most agricultural prices are denominated in US dollars on world markets. Consequently, a significant decline or increase in the value of the US dollar against other floating international currencies can influence world agricultural prices (Penm et al. 2002). Movement in the Australian dollar against the US dollar is also important. A significant appreciation or depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar can markedly reduce or increase earnings for exporters and producers.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds any exchange rate outlook. A change in financial market sentiment can significantly affect exchange rate movements and lead to high volatility. For example, in 2013–14 the Australian dollar peaked at US96 cents in late October 2013 but had fallen to US87 cents by January 2014.

ABARES cannot predict extreme seasonal conditions, supply disruptions or sharp exchange rate fluctuations, or their effects, and incorporate them into agricultural commodity forecasts. ABARES attempts to balance upside and downside risks, but some judgements will inevitably cause forecasts to be different from actual outcomes.

Information about risks to the forecasts is useful for agricultural sector decision-makers. For this reason, ABARES discusses risk factors in Agricultural commodities notes and encourages decision-makers to read these to understand ABARES forecasts.

References

Penm, J, Maurer, A, Fairhead, L & Tran, QT 2002, ‘US dollar—impacts of a depreciation of the US$ on Australian commodities’, Australian commodities, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 485–94.

29

Economic overview


AgricultureCrops


WheatChristopher Price

• The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to average US$285 a tonne in 2014–15, compared with US$317 a tonne in 2013–14.

• World wheat supply is forecast to increase in 2014–15, driven by an increase in opening stocks.

• World wheat trade is forecast to decline in 2014–15, largely reflecting an expected reduction in exports to China as a result of increased domestic production.

• China became the third most significant destination (by value) for Australian wheat exports in 2013–14, behind Indonesia and Vietnam. The value of exports to China rose by 36 per cent.

Wheat indicator price to be lower in 2014–15, with increased world supplyThe world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to average US$285 a tonne in 2014–15, compared with US$317 a tonne in 2013–14. The world supply of wheat is forecast to increase in 2014–15, driven by an increase in opening stocks. World wheat production is forecast to be largely unchanged.

World wheat supply and price

Production

Opening stocks

Mt2014–15US$/t

US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1000

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

31

Wheat


A forecast fall in the supply of hard red winter wheat in the United States and quality downgrades in some other major wheat producing countries are expected to reduce downward pressure on the world indicator price. The forecast does not assume further downgrades in high protein, milling grade wheat in major producing countries in the northern hemisphere. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to cause price volatility and present a risk to the price outlook.

World production largely unchanged despite declines in North AmericaWorld wheat production is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15, at 714 million tonnes. Forecast falls in production by some major producers, the United States, Canada and Australia, are expected to largely offset forecast increases for the other major producers, the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan), the European Union, Argentina, China and India.

Wheat production changes, 2014–15

Volume change

Percentage change(right axis)

Mt %

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

–20

–10

0

10

20

30

Black Searegion

European Union

China

India

Argentina

United States

Australia

rest of world

Canada

Wheat production in Canada is forecast to fall by 25 per cent in 2014–15 to 28 million tonnes, which if realised will be around its five-year average to 2013–14. The forecast fall is expected as a result of reductions in harvested area and average yield. However, substantial carry-over stocks from 2013–14 will ensure plentiful supply from Canada.

Wheat production in the United States is forecast to decrease by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 55 million tonnes, driven by an expected 7 per cent reduction in average yield. Yields for hard red winter wheat have declined significantly in the major producing areas on the southern Great Plains. However, the total harvested area is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15. This largely reflects an increase in area planted to spring wheat, which typically accounts for just over one-quarter of US wheat production.

32

Wheat


Wheat production in the Black Sea region is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 95 million tonnes, driven by a 14 per cent increase in production in the Russian Federation. Conditions in the Russian Federation have been generally favourable for spring wheat and were almost ideal for winter wheat. Low rates of winterkill, good rainfall and moderate temperatures characterised the growing season, and conditions leading into and during the harvest of the winter wheat crop were warm and dry. These favourable seasonal conditions have resulted in a large supply of relatively high-quality wheat. However, less favourable conditions in Ukraine and Kazakhstan are forecast to cause combined production to fall by 2 per cent to 36 million tonnes. In Ukraine, wet conditions during autumn reduced the planted area. In Kazakhstan, generally dry seasonal conditions in key growing areas adversely affected the forecast yield.

In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 149 million tonnes. Growing conditions were generally favourable across the region, and production in the United Kingdom recovered significantly. However, Spanish production declined substantially. Heavy rainfall slowed harvesting and some crops were downgraded to feed grade, particularly in France and Germany.

Wheat production in Argentina is forecast to increase by 19 per cent in 2014–15 to around 12 million tonnes. Planted area is estimated to have increased by 13 per cent in response to higher expected returns compared with production alternatives. In areas such as central and south-eastern Buenos Aires province, excess rain prevented realisation of planting intentions. The average yield in Argentina is assumed to increase in 2014–15 as a result of generally favourable conditions early in the season.

In China, the 2014–15 wheat harvest is complete, with production estimated to have increased by 3 per cent to a record 126 million tonnes. This is despite dry conditions in some winter wheat producing areas, though spring wheat production in the north-eastern regions benefited from rainfall late in the season. Wheat quality has generally been better than in 2013–14, when frost damage and excessive rainfall during harvesting adversely affected production.

In India, harvesting of the 2014–15 wheat crop was completed several months ago, with production estimated to have increased by 3 per cent to 96 million tonnes. This represents a record crop for the sixth time in seven seasons.

Human consumption and feed use of wheat to riseWorld consumption of wheat is forecast to rise by just over 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 705 million tonnes, largely reflecting increased human consumption resulting from world population growth.

Use of wheat for feed is also forecast to increase in 2014–15, despite large global supplies of alternatives such as corn and barley. In the European Union, increased wheat production and quality downgrades have increased the supply of feed wheat at favourable prices compared with alternatives. This is expected to substantially increase use of wheat for feed. Its use is forecast to fall in most other parts of the world—particularly in the United States, where plentiful supplies of corn at favourable prices relative to wheat are expected.

33

Wheat


Changes in the use of wheat for feed, 2014–15

Volume change

Percentage change(right axis)

Mt %–8–6–4–202468

10

–32–24–16–8

08

16243240

UnitedStates

rest ofworld

Black Searegion

EuropeanUnion

World closing stocks to increase modestly in 2014–15World closing stocks of wheat are forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 200 million tonnes, following an increase of 10 per cent in 2013–14. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by around 1 percentage point to 28 per cent.

Combined closing stocks in the major exporting countries are forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 60 million tonnes. However, the level of stocks is expected to be around 3 per cent below the 10-year average to 2013–14. In contrast to most other major exporting countries, a 30 per cent drawdown of stocks is expected in Canada in 2014–15.

World wheat closing stocks

Rest of world

Major exporters a

Mt %

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

a Argentina, Australia, the Black Sea region, Canada, the European Union and the United States. f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

50

100

150

200

250

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

34

Wheat


Trade to decrease, led by a fall in exports to ChinaWorld trade in wheat is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 144 million tonnes. The forecast decline largely reflects lower imports by China, where an increase in production and improved crop quality are expected to reduce demand for imported milling grade wheat for blending with domestic supplies.

The largest declines in exports are expected to be in the United States and the European Union. Exports from the United States are expected to decrease by 21 per cent, reflecting relatively low opening stocks and an expected fall in production. Exports from the European Union are forecast to fall by 20 per cent from a record volume in 2013–14. The forecast decline in EU exports is expected to result from 2014–15 crop quality downgrades and forecast increases in domestic consumption and stocks.

Exports from Canada are forecast to decrease by 4 per cent in 2014–15, assuming an expected drawdown of stocks. If realised, the volume of exports will be 15 per cent above the five-year average to 2013–14.

The Russian Federation has a large supply of relatively high-quality wheat. Its exports are forecast to increase by 15 per cent in 2014–15 to around 22 million tonnes.

A forecast increase in wheat production in Argentina is expected to support an increase in export volume from 2 million tonnes to around 7 million tonnes. Nevertheless, if realised, it would still be around 18 per cent below the 10-year average to 2013–14.

AustraliaLower Australian wheat production in 2014–15Australian wheat production is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to 24.2 million tonnes. A 12 per cent fall in average yield is expected to drive this forecast decline. Yields are expected to decline in most states. However, if realised, expected declines in Western Australia and South Australia will follow the well above average yields recorded in 2013–14.

The opening to the 2014–15 season was generally favourable, but conditions over winter were mixed. This has resulted in mixed crop prospects. Sufficient and timely rainfall during spring will be critical to realising the forecast wheat production, particularly in areas where soil moisture levels are low.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November, issued on 28 August 2014) does not indicate either wetter or drier than normal conditions across the major cropping regions in Queensland, South Australia or Western Australia. However, in most of New South Wales and parts of central Victoria, conditions are likely to be drier than normal.

35

Wheat


Australian wheat production

Queensland

Victoria

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

5

10

15

20

25

30

South Australia

New South WalesWestern Australia

Exports to fall in 2014–15The volume of Australian wheat exports is forecast to decline by around 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 18.1 million tonnes, following a 14 per cent fall in 2013–14. If realised, the wheat export volume would still be around 15 per cent higher than the 10-year average to 2013–14. A significant quantity of wheat harvested in the 2013–14 season will be exported in the 2014–15 financial year.

The value of Australian wheat exports is forecast to decline by 8 per cent in 2014–15 to $5.6 billion. This largely reflects the forecast fall in export prices. The average export price for Australian wheat is expected to decline in 2014–15, reflecting plentiful world supply.

China became the third most significant destination for Australian wheat exports (by value) in 2013–14, behind Indonesia and Vietnam. The value of exports to China rose by 36 per cent. The increase in Australian exports of wheat to China partly reflected increased demand for milling grade wheat to blend with domestic supplies.

Australian wheat exports

Export volume

Export value(right axis)

Mt2014–15$b

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

5

10

15

20

25

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

36

Wheat


Wheat outlook

2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % changeWorldP d ti Mt 655 713 714 0 2WorldProduction Mt 655 713 714 0.2– China Mt 121 122 126 2.9– European Union Mt 132 143 149 4.4 European Union Mt 132 143 149 4.4– India Mt 95 94 96 2.5– India Mt 95 94 96 2.5– Russian Federation Mt 38 52 59 13 8– Russian Federation Mt 38 52 59 13.8United States Mt 62 58 55 4 7– United States Mt 62 58 55 –4.7

C iConsumption Mt 675 695 705 1.3p– human Mt 466 476 481 1.1 human Mt 466 476 481 1.1– feed Mt 133 131 137 4.4– feed Mt 133 131 137 4.4Closing stocks Mt 173 190 200 4 9Closing stocks Mt 173 190 200 4.9Stocks to use ratio % 26 27 28Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 26 27 28T d M 140 156 144 7 3Trade Mt 140 156 144 –7.3Exports ap– Argentina Mt 4 2 7 279.9 Argentina Mt 4 2 7 279.9– Australia b Mt 21 18 18 –1 3– Australia b Mt 21 18 18 –1.3– Canada Mt 19 23 22 4 0– Canada Mt 19 23 22 –4.0E U i– European Union Mt 23 33 26 –20.4

kh– Kazakhstan Mt 7 8 6 –24.4Mt 7 8 6 24.4– Russian Federation Mt 11 20 22 15.1 Russian Federation Mt 11 20 22 15.1– Ukraine Mt 7 10 9 –5 9– Ukraine Mt 7 10 9 –5.9– United States Mt 27 32 25 21 4– United States Mt 27 32 25 –21.4

US$/ 348 317 285 10 2Price c US$/t 348 317 285 –10.2AustraliaArea ’000 ha 12 979 13 512 13 837 2.4AustraliaArea 000 ha 12 979 13 512 13 837 2.4Production kt 22 856 27 013 24 234 –10 3Production kt 22 856 27 013 24 234 –10.3Exports b kt 21 265 18 336 18 102 1 3Exports b kt 21 265 18 336 18 102 –1.3

l $– value A$m 6 776 6 103 5 611 –8.1APW 10 net pool return A$/t 326 336 307 –8.8APW 10 net pool return A$/t 326 336 307 8.8a Local marketing years b July–June years c US no 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf July–Junea Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES f t ABARES ti tf ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimateSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics;

37ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 4 no. 3 • September quarter 2014

• Prices are forecast to fall in 2014–15, with world production of coarse grains forecast to exceed world consumption.

• World closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2014–15 to 226 million tonnes. If realised, this will be the highest for 15 years.

• World trade in coarse grains is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 150 million tonnes, reflecting lower demand in many major importing countries.

• The volume of Australian barley exports increased by 38 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.1 million tonnes.

• Australia was the second largest barley exporter in 2013–14, accounting for around 30 per cent of world barley exports.

Prices to fall in 2014–15The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to average 16 per cent lower in 2014–15 at $US185 a tonne. The world indicator price for barley (France feed barley, fob Rouen) is forecast to average 15 per cent lower in 2014–15 at $US205 a tonne. These forecast lower prices largely reflect expected weak growth in demand for coarse grains and near record production in 2014–15. World stocks are forecast to be their highest in 15 years.

World coarse grains prices

2014–15US$/t

France feed barley, fob Rouen

US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

Coarse grainsClay Mifsud

38

Coarse grains


Lower forecast coarse grains prices in 2014–15 follow declines in 2013–14. The world coarse grains indicator price fell by 30 per cent in 2013–14 to average US$219 a tonne and the world indicator price for barley fell by 18 per cent to average US$242 a tonne.

World production remains close to record highWorld coarse grains production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 1267 million tonnes. If realised, world coarse grains production will be the second highest on record.

World production and consumption of coarse grains

Production

Consumption

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Corn production largely unchanged in 2014–15World corn production is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 985 million tonnes. Production in the United States, China and the European Union is forecast to increase, while production in Latin America and Ukraine is forecast to decline.

Corn production in the United States is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 363 million tonnes. Yields are assumed to average 7 per cent higher than last year at a record 10.7 tonnes a hectare, reflecting favourable growing conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture reported that 74 per cent of the US corn crop was rated as good or excellent in the week ending 8 September 2014, compared with 54 per cent at the same time last year and 22 per cent at the same time in 2012. The assumed increase in average yields is expected to be partially offset by a forecast 4 per cent decline in the area harvested.

Corn production in China is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 222 million tonnes. This reflects an increase in the area planted to 37 million hectares (at the expense of soybeans and cotton) following the Chinese Government’s mid 2013 announcement that it would increase price support for domestic corn production. Domestic corn prices in China are around US$440 a tonne, more than double the world indicator price.

39

Coarse grains


World corn production

Mt

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

2014–15f

2013–14s

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

otherBlack Sea region

EuropeanUnion

LatinAmerica

ChinaUnitedStates

Corn production in Ukraine is forecast to fall by 13 per cent in 2014–15 to 27 million tonnes, largely reflecting an assumed 10 per cent fall in average yield compared with its 2013–14 crop. The combined effect of unfavourable seasonal conditions and reduced fertiliser use (because of a price increase) is expected to reduce yields compared with last year. In 2013–14 the average yield was above average, with a record corn crop of 31 million tonnes.

Corn production in Latin America is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 108 million tonnes, reflecting an expected decline in area planted to corn. Among the major exporters, production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in Brazil to 74 million tonnes and by 4 per cent in Argentina to 23 million tonnes. Following the decline in corn prices in 2013–14, Latin American producers are expected to increase area planted to soybeans at the expense of corn.

Lower barley production as yields declineWorld barley production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 135 million tonnes, primarily reflecting expected lower production in the European Union, Canada and Turkey.

World barley production

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

10

20

30

40

50

60

other

Middle East andNorth America

Australia

Canada

Black Sea region

EuropeanUnion

40

Coarse grains


Barley production in the European Union is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 56 million tonnes, driven by an assumed 6 per cent fall in the average yield from the record 4.8 tonnes a hectare achieved in 2013–14. Area of barley harvested is forecast to be largely unchanged at 12.3 million hectares.

Barley production in Canada is forecast to fall by 32 per cent in 2014–15 to 7 million tonnes. Harvested area of barley is forecast to fall by 17 per cent to 2.2 million hectares and average yield is forecast to fall by 18 per cent (to 3.2 tonnes a hectare) from above average yields achieved last year. The forecast fall in harvested area reflects expected lower demand in 2014–15 for barley for feed and industrial uses and relatively high carry-over stocks from last season.

In contrast to other major growing regions, barley production in the Black Sea region is forecast to rise in 2014–15, reflecting favourable growing conditions. Production is forecast to rise by 20 per cent in the Russian Federation to 18 million tonnes and by 8 per cent in Ukraine to 8 million tonnes.

In Turkey, barley production is forecast to fall by 45 per cent in 2014–15 to 4 million tonnes, driven by an expected fall in average yield. Unfavourable seasonal conditions have hindered crop development and average yield is forecast to fall by around 45 per cent to 1.2 tonnes a hectare.

Consumption to rise but less than productionWorld coarse grains consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 1251 million tonnes, driven by an increase in world corn consumption.

Corn consumption to riseWorld corn consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 968 million tonnes, reflecting a 4 per cent increase in use of corn for feed to 594 million tonnes and a 1 per cent increase in use for food, seed and industrial purposes to 374 million tonnes.

Corn consumption in the United States in 2014–15 is forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 299 million tonnes. Use of corn for feed is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 134 million tonnes in response to the expected decline in the price of corn relative to the price of other feed grains. Use of corn for food, seed and industrial purposes is dominated by use of corn to manufacture ethanol; it is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 165 million tonnes. Ethanol accounts for 10 per cent of petrol consumed in the United States, and the US Energy Information Administration forecasts it to remain largely unchanged over the next year.

Corn consumption in China is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 222 million tonnes. The use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 162 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in demand for pig and poultry meat. Use of corn for food, seed and industrial purposes is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 60 million tonnes.

Corn consumption in the European Union is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 74 million tonnes because of an expected decline in use of corn for feed. Feed wheat is expected to be substituted for corn, after heavy rainfall in the European Union during wheat harvest increased supply of feed wheat and reduced its price relative to the corn price.

41

Coarse grains


World corn consumption, 2014–15f

MarketFeed (Mt)

Food, seed and industrial

(Mt)Total (Mt)

Year-on-year change in total

consumption (%)

United States 134 165 299 1

China 162 60 222 5

Other Asia 68 31 99 6

Latin America 73 19 92 3

European Union 55 19 74 –4

Other 102 80 182 4

World 594 374 968 2

f ABARES forecast.

Barley consumption to fallWorld barley consumption is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to 138 million tonnes, reflecting a 5 per cent fall in the use of barley for feed to 92 million tonnes. Consumption of barley for food, seed and industrial purposes is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 46 million tonnes.

World barley consumption, 2014–15f

MarketFeed (Mt)

Food, seed and industrial

(Mt)Total(Mt)

Year-on-year change in total

consumption (%)

European Union 35 16 51 –6

Middle East 21 2 23 –3

Black Sea Region 13 6 19 8

Canada 6 1 7 –14

China 1 4 5 –14

Other Asia 2 7 9 –2

Other 14 10 24 –2

World 92 46 138 –2

f ABARES forecast.

Trade to decline in 2014–15World trade in coarse grains is forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 150 million tonnes, with trade in both corn and barley expected to fall.

CornWorld trade in corn is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 120 million tonnes, reflecting lower import demand from Asia (excluding Japan), the European Union and Africa.

42

Coarse grains


Corn imports in Asia (excluding Japan) are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 26 million tonnes. Import demand for feed corn in the Republic of Korea is expected to decline because the government is expected to continue subsidising livestock producers (on sale of livestock for slaughter) to reduce livestock numbers. China’s corn imports are expected to fall by 14 per cent to 3 million tonnes as a result of the government’s ban on importing MIR162 corn, a genetically-modified variety produced in many exporting countries including the United States and Argentina.

EU corn imports are forecast to fall by 29 per cent in 2014–15 to 11 million tonnes, which reflects an expected increase in domestic supply of feed grains. The expected increase in domestic supply reflects forecast higher corn production and an increase in the supply of feed wheat. On 16 July 2014 the European Commission imposed a 5.32 euro a tonne tariff on corn imports.

Corn imports in the Middle East and Japan are expected to increase, partially offsetting forecast falls of corn imports in other markets. Poultry production is forecast to rise in Saudi Arabia and increase the demand for feed grains. Additionally, the Saudi Government is expected to continue offering a $120 a tonne subsidy on corn purchases, reducing the cost of corn relative to other feed grains. Corn imports in Japan are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 16 million tonnes, as competitively priced corn displaces wheat as a livestock feed.

World corn imports

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

5

10

15

20

25

30

otherNorthAmerica

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

JapanEuropeanUnion

AfricaAsia(excluding

Japan)

BarleyWorld trade in barley is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 21 million tonnes, largely reflecting lower import demand in China.

China’s barley imports are forecast to fall from record highs in 2013–14. This reflects an expected fall in demand for feed barley as supply of alternative feed grains, such as grain sorghum, increases. Barley imports in most other Asian markets are forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15.

43

Coarse grains


Import demand for barley in the Middle East is forecast to fall slightly in 2014–15 at 12.5 million tonnes. Turkey’s barley imports are forecast to rise from 150 000 tonnes in 2013–14 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2014–15, reflecting an expected fall in domestic production. However, Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are forecast to fall by 2 million tonnes as corn is increasingly used as livestock feed instead of barley.

World barley imports

Mt


2014–15f

2013–14s

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

otherNorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

AfricaAsia MiddleEast

Closing stocks highest in 15 yearsWorld closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2014–15 to 226 million tonnes. If realised, coarse grains stocks will be the highest in 15 years. This reflects forecast world production exceeding forecast consumption in 2014–15 by 16 million tonnes.

World coarse grain closing stocks

Mt

Other

Oats

Grain sorghum

Barley

Corn

50

100

150

200

250

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

f ABARES forecast.

44

Coarse grains


Corn stocks to increaseWorld closing stocks of corn are forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 188 million tonnes, which reflects an increase in stocks in the two largest corn producing countries. In 2014–15 closing corn stocks are forecast to rise by 51 per cent in the United States to 45 million tonnes and by 4 per cent in China to 80 million tonnes.

Barley stocks to fallWorld closing stocks of barley are forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 22 million tonnes, driven by a 34 per cent fall in stocks in Canada and a 19 per cent fall in Saudi Arabia. However, a small rise in stocks in the Black Sea region is expected.

AustraliaLower production in 2014–15Australian coarse grains production is forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2014–15 to 11 million tonnes. This reflects a decline in the area planted and lower average yields.

Australian barley production is forecast to fall by 21 per cent in 2014–15 to 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting a decline in planted area and average yield. The area planted to barley is estimated to have fallen by 4 per cent to 3.8 million hectares. The average yield is forecast to be 18 per cent lower, at 2 tonnes a hectare.

Australian grain sorghum production is forecast to be 1.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, 67 per cent higher than in 2013–14—when production declined to the lowest since 1997–98. The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to increase by 26 per cent in 2014–15 to 623 000 hectares.

Grain sorghum production in New South Wales and Queensland

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

New South WalesQueensland

45

Coarse grains


Exports to fall in 2014–15The volume of coarse grains exports is forecast to fall by 32 per cent in 2014–15 to 5.5 million tonnes. The value of coarse grain exports is forecast to fall by 42 per cent to $1.5 billion.

BarleyThe volume of Australian barley exports is forecast to fall by 34 per cent in 2014–15 to 4.7 million tonnes. This forecast fall reflects an expected fall in demand for feed barley, as corn is substituted for barley in livestock feed in response to expected lower world corn prices. Additionally, the supply of barley available for export from Australia is forecast to be lower, reflecting an expected decline in domestic production.

In 2013–14 Australian barley exports increased by 38 per cent to 7.1 million tonnes and accounted for around 30 per cent of world barley exports. This made Australia the world’s second largest barley exporter, after the European Union. China was Australia’s largest market for barley in 2013–14, accounting for around 3 million tonnes. Saudi Arabia and Japan were Australia’s second and third largest export markets for barley.

Grain sorghumIn 2014–15 Australian grain sorghum exports are forecast to fall by 42 per cent to around 408 000 tonnes. Production for 2014–15 is forecast to rise but, because grain sorghum is harvested towards the end of the financial year, a corresponding forecast increase in exports is not expected to be realised until 2015–16.

In 2013–14 Australian grain sorghum exports fell by 46 per cent to 701 000 tonnes. Lower domestic production coincided with lower demand from Japan, which had been Australia’s largest export market for grain sorghum over the five years to 2012–13. Grain sorghum exports to China increased by 86 per cent in 2013–14 to 596 000 tonnes and comprised 86 per cent of Australia’s grain sorghum exports for the year.

Australian grain sorghum exports

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

OtherNew ZealandChina

Japan

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

46

Coarse grains


Coarse grains outlookC i tl kCoarsegrainsoutlookit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 f % change

gunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 1 137 1 274 1 267 –0.5WorldProduction Mt 1 137 1 274 1 267 –0.5– barley Mt 130 145 135 –6 9– barley Mt 130 145 135 –6.9corn Mt 869 984 985 0 1– corn Mt 869 984 985 0.1

Consumption Mt 1 142 1 229 1 251 1.8pTrade Mt 123 158 150 –5.1Trade Mt 123 158 150 5.1Closing stocks Mt 165 210 226 7.6Closing stocks Mt 165 210 226 7.6Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 17 18Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 17 18C i

$Corn price a (fob Gulf, Jul–Jun) US$/t 312 219 185 –15.5( , ) $/Barley price b(fob Rouen Jul–Jun) US$/t 296 242 205 –15 3Barley price b (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 296 242 205 –15.3AustraliaAustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 199 5 366 5 358 –0.1– barley ’000 ha 3 644 3 920 3 778 –3.6 barley 000 ha 3 644 3 920 3 778 3.6– grain sorghum ’000 ha 648 493 623 26.4– grain sorghum 000 ha 648 493 623 26.4Production kt 11 500 12 581 11 189 –11 1Production kt 11 500 12 581 11 189 –11.1barley kt 7 472 9 545 7 547 20 9– barley kt 7 472 9 545 7 547 –20.9

i h k– grain sorghum kt 2 230 1 107 1 844 66.6g gExports kt 6 762 8 046 5 458 –32.2Exports kt 6 762 8 046 5 458 32.2– value A$m 2 101 2 542 1 467 –42.3– value A$m 2 101 2 542 1 467 42.3Feed barley price c A$/t 245 233 205 –12 0Feed barley price c A$/t 245 233 205 –12.0M lti b l i d A$/t 255 249 223 10 4Malting barley price d A$/t 255 249 223 –10.4g y pa US no. 2 yellow corn July–June. b France feed barley, fob Rouen July–June. c Feed 1, delivered a US no. 2 yellow corn July June. b France feed barley, fob Rouen July June. c Feed 1, delivered Geelong. d Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Geelong. d Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics

b ( d ) d f lDatabase (UN Comtrade); United States Department of Agriculture ( ) p g


• The world oilseeds indicator price is forecast to fall in 2014–15 in response to expected record soybean supplies.

• World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 518 million tonnes, driven by a forecast 16 per cent increase in US soybean production.

• The world canola indicator price is forecast to decline by 16 per cent in 2014–15.• The value of Australian canola exports to China more than doubled in 2013–14 to

$590 million.

Prices to fall in 2014–15The world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to average US$460 a tonne, which if realised will be 14 per cent below the five-year average to 2013–14 in real terms (2014–15 US dollars). This forecast fall primarily reflects expected record supplies of soybeans.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to decline by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to average US$440 a tonne. Despite a forecast decline in world canola production, expected weaker soybean prices are expected to place significant downward pressure on canola prices as a result of substitution.

World oilseeds indicator price, US soybeans, fob Gulf

2014–15US$/t

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

OilseedsDavid Mobsby

48

Oilseeds


World oilseeds production higher on record US soybean productionWorld oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 518 million tonnes, driven by an expected 20 million tonne increase in world soybean production. World soybean production is forecast to rise to record levels, but world production of canola and sunflower seed is forecast to decline.

World oilseeds production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600Other

Canola

Soybeans

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

SoybeansWorld soybean production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 302 million tonnes, largely because of expected record production in the United States.

Soybean production in the United States is forecast to increase by 16 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 103 million tonnes, largely driven by an expected 11 per cent rise in harvested area to around 34 million hectares. Additionally, the average yield is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 3 tonnes a hectare, which reflects the favourable development of crops so far. In early September 2014, 72 per cent of the US soybean crop was rated as good to excellent, 4 percentage points higher than the previous highest level rated for the same period over the previous decade.

World soybean production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other

Argentina

Brazil

United States

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

49

Oilseeds


Despite the forecast decline in world soybean prices in 2014–15, the area planted to soybeans in the major Latin American exporting countries (Argentina and Brazil) is forecast to rise. Producers in Argentina and Brazil are expected to switch from corn to soybeans production because soybeans are expected to offer a more favourable return. In Argentina, soybean production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 53 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed 3 per cent fall in the yield (to average levels), more than offsetting a forecast 2 per cent increase in harvested area. In Brazil, soybean production is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to around 90 million tonnes. The harvested area is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 31 million hectares.

Canola (rapeseed)World canola production is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 69 million tonnes. Expected production falls in Canada, Australia and Ukraine are expected to more than offset higher estimated production in the European Union.

Canola production changes, 2014–15

Mt

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

rest ofworld

Ukraine EuropeanUnion

Canada Australia

Rapeseed production in the European Union is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 22.7 million tonnes. Growing conditions were generally favourable and the average yield is estimated to have risen by 6 per cent to 3.3 tonnes a hectare, which is 8 per cent above the five-year average to 2013–14.

In Ukraine, rapeseed production is estimated to have fallen by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast 15 per cent fall in harvested area. The fall in harvested area was largely the result of unfavourable winter planting conditions. However, the average yield is expected to be 10 per cent higher than in 2013–14 because of favourable growing conditions.

Canola production in Canada is forecast to fall by 22 per cent in 2014–15 to around 14 million tonnes, largely because of a forecast 20 per cent fall in the average yield from the record achieved in 2013–14. Despite a marginal increase in planted area for 2014–15, regional flooding during June is forecast to result in harvested area falling by around 3 per cent to around 7.8 million hectares.

50

Oilseeds


Canola production, Canada

Mt

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

5

10

15

20

f ABARES forecast.

Crush to riseWorld oilseed crush is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 435 million tonnes. World soybean crush is forecast to rise by 7 per cent to 257 million tonnes and canola crush by 3 per cent to 67 million tonnes.

China is expected to drive the higher world oilseed crush in 2014–15, with a 7 per cent increase in soybean crush to 74 million tonnes. Argentina and Brazil are also forecast to increase soybean crush in 2014–15. In Argentina, reduced export taxes on biodiesel are expected to lead to higher domestic crush of soybeans. In Brazil, a rise in the domestic biodiesel blending mandates in 2014 is expected to result in an increased crush. Biodiesel is largely produced from soybean oil in both countries.

Canola crush is forecast to increase in the European Union, Canada and China. In the European Union and China, crush is forecast to increase largely because of a rise in domestic demand for canola oil and meal. In Canada, the crush increase is expected largely in response to a forecast increase in export demand for canola oil and meal.

Vegetable oil and protein meal use to riseWorld use of vegetable oil is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 175 million tonnes, while world use of protein meals is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 286 million tonnes.

The forecast higher use of vegetable oils in 2014–15 is expected to be driven by a 6 per cent increase in the use of palm oil to 60 million tonnes. World use of canola oil is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to around 26 million tonnes. The use of canola oil is forecast to rise fastest in China and the United States, continuing a trend of increasing use in these countries over recent years.

In 2014–15 a 6 per cent increase in soybean meal use to around 200 million tonnes is forecast to drive world use of protein meals. China is forecast to account for the majority of this rise, with a forecast 8 per cent increase to a record 57 million tonnes.

51

Oilseeds


World vegetable oil and protein meal use

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500Oil

Meal

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

World oilseed exports forecast largely unchangedWorld oilseed exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 133 million tonnes. A 2 per cent increase in soybean exports to 114 million tonnes is expected to be offset by a forecast decline in world canola exports. China is forecast to continue to drive world soybean trade, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. Its imports are forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 73 million tonnes. Conversely, US soybean imports are forecast to fall by around 80 per cent on 2013–14 levels because of a large forecast rise in domestic supply. US imports of soybeans were unusually high in 2013–14 because of very low domestic supplies.

In 2014–15 US and Brazilian soybean exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, to around 46 million tonnes each. This forecast rise largely reflects strong import demand from China and an increase in supplies available for export in the United States and Brazil. Soybean exports from Argentina are forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes because of the forecast fall in production, its increased domestic crush and a rise in closing stocks.

World oilseeds exports

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

30

60

90

120

150Other

Canola

Soybeans

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

52

Oilseeds


World canola exports are forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to 13 million tonnes, with falls expected for Canada, Australia and Ukraine. EU imports are expected to fall, while Chinese import demand is expected to remain largely unchanged.

Canadian canola exports are forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2014–15 to 7.8 million tonnes, from the record level in 2013–14. This forecast fall reflects an expected decrease in the supply available for export, with domestic production forecast to fall and domestic crush forecast to increase.

Ukraine’s canola exports are forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.9 million tonnes, in line with the expected decline in production.

The European Union is forecast to reduce canola imports by 13 per cent in 2014–15 to around 3 million tonnes. EU import demand is expected to fall because of increased domestic production.

China’s canola imports are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15 at around 4.4 million tonnes. A forecast increase in domestic production is expected to dampen import demand, but this is expected to be offset by a reduction in canola oil imports in favour of canola seed.

World stocks of oilseeds forecast to rise to record highsA forecast 6 per cent increase in world oilseed supply in 2014–15 is expected to result in a 13 per cent increase in world closing stocks of oilseeds to a record 94 million tonnes. This forecast rise is largely attributable to an 18 per cent increase in world soybean closing stocks to around 82 million tonnes. Closing soybean stocks in the three major soybean exporting countries (the United States, Brazil and Argentina) are expected to account for around 70 per cent of closing stocks, and China is expected to account for most of the remainder.

World oilseeds closing stocks

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

20

40

60

80

100Other

Canola

Soybeans

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

53

Oilseeds


World closing stocks of canola are forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2014–15 to around 5.5 million tonnes. A forecast 47 per cent fall in Canada’s canola stocks to 1.3 million tonnes is expected to more than offset a 16 per cent increase in EU stocks to 2.1 million tonnes.

Canola closing stocks, Canada

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

AustraliaLower production in 2014–15Australian canola production is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to around 3.4 million tonnes, largely as a result of a fall in Western Australian production. In Western Australia, canola production in 2014–15 is forecast to fall by 16 per cent to around 1.5 million tonnes. This reflects an expected 17 per cent decline in average yield from the high in 2013–14.

Australian canola production, major producing states

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

South Australia

Victoria

New South Wales

Western Australia

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1

2

3

4

5

54

Oilseeds


Exports to fall from record levels in 2012–13Australian canola exports were 3.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, declining 8 per cent on the record 2012–13 level. This decline was the result of a 9 per cent fall in Australian canola production in 2013–14. In 2013–14 the value of Australian canola exports fell by 8 per cent to $1.9 billion, because of the fall in export volume.

The share of Australian canola exported to China increased from 11 per cent in 2012–13 to 30 per cent in 2013–14. Over the same period the share exported to the European Union, Australia’s largest export market for canola over recent years, fell from 54 per cent to 47 per cent. The value of Australian exports of canola to China more than doubled in 2013–14, reaching $590 million.

Australia resumed canola exports to China in May 2013, after the two countries finalised an import protocol. Canola exports had been suspended since November 2009. In 2013–14 logistical problems in Canada, China’s major supplier, temporarily limited exports to China.

Australian canola exports to China

$m

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013–14s

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

s ABARES estimate.

In 2014–15 Australian canola exports are forecast to fall by 28 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes, largely reflecting a forecast 10 per cent fall in production. The value of canola exports is forecast to fall by 41 per cent to $1.1 billion, reflecting forecast lower export shipments and prices.

55

Oilseeds


Australian canola exports to the world

VolumeValue (right axis)

Mt $b

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Oilseeds outlookOil d tl kOilseedsoutlooki 20 2 3 20 3 20 f % h

Oilseedsoutlookunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 475 502 518 3 2WorldProduction Mt 475 502 518 3.2Consumption Mt 467 485 507 4 5Consumption Mt 467 485 507 4.5

il d l M 260 271 286 5 5– oilseed meal Mt 260 271 286 5.5– vegetable oil Mt 158 166 175 5.4 vegetable oil Mt 158 166 175 5.4Exports Mt 118 133 133 0.0Exports Mt 118 133 133 0.0Closing stocks Mt 67 83 94 13 3Closing stocks Mt 67 83 94 13.3Stocks to use ratio % 14 17 19 0 0Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 17 19 0.0

$Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 597 547 460 –15.9Soybeans indicator price a $/Canola indicator price b US$/t 628 521 440 –15.5Canola indicator price b US$/t 628 521 440 15.5AustraliaT t l d ti kt 5 752 5 148 4 364 15 2AustraliaTotal production kt 5 752 5 148 4 364 –15.2– winter kt 4 155 3 775 3 402 –9.9– summer kt 1 597 1 373 962 –29.9 summer kt 1 597 1 373 962 29.9CanolaCanolaProduction kt 4 142 3 760 3 388 –9 9Production kt 4 142 3 760 3 388 –9.9E t kt 3 488 3 194 2 297 28 1Exports c kt 3 488 3 194 2 297 –28.1p– value A$m 2 094 1 929 1 142 –40.8 value $Price c(delivered Melbourne) A$/t 560 529 461 –12 9Price c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 560 529 461 –12.9S b US f b G lf J l J b R d E f b H b J l Ja Soybeans, US, fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June.

c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.c Ju y Ju e yea s S o ecast s S est ateSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg;Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of AgricultureUnited States Department of Agriculture


• Despite forecast record world sugar stocks in 2014–15, the world stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline for the first time in five years. This reflects relatively high growth in consumption compared with production.

• World sugar consumption is forecast to increase in 2014–15, mainly driven by expected lower world sugar prices and growth in world population and incomes.

• World sugar exports are forecast to increase in 2014–15. This largely reflects forecast higher exports from Thailand, India, the European Union and Australia, partially offset by a reduction from Brazil—the world’s largest exporter.

• Australian sugar exports are forecast at 3.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, around 6 per cent higher than in 2013–14.

• Raw sugar exports to Indonesia rose year-on-year by 71 per cent in the first half of 2013–14 to around 530 000 tonnes, making Indonesia Australia’s largest export destination for raw sugar.

• Australia exported 95 000 tonnes of raw sugar to China in the first half of 2013–14, compared with 27 000 tonnes in the whole of 2011–12, the last time Australia sent shipments to China.

World sugar prices to decline in 2014–15The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to decline by around 18 per cent to average US14 cents a pound in 2014–15 (October to September). The forecast price decline reflects large carry-over stocks from 2013–14 and forecast higher production than consumption in 2014–15, which is expected to result in record world stocks. Despite world stocks forecast to increase in 2014–15 for the fifth year in a row, the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline for the first time in five years. If realised, the forecast world sugar indicator price will be the lowest since 2009–10 but still higher than the 10-year average to 2008–09 of US12 cents a pound (2014–15 dollars).

The world indicator price for raw sugar is estimated to have averaged US17 cents a pound in 2013–14, compared with US18 cents a pound in 2012–13. As at 5 September 2014, the world sugar indicator price was around US15 cents a pound.

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

57

Sugar


Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 5 September 2014)

USc/lb

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sep2014

Mar2014

Sep2013

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

World sugar indicators a

Production

Consumption

Mt2014–15USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

a Production and consumption are raw value equivalent. f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

6

12

18

24

30

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Modest growth in world sugar production in 2014–15World sugar production is forecast at around 184 million tonnes in 2014–15, compared with 183 million tonnes in 2013–14. Forecast higher sugar production for India, Thailand, Europe and Australia is expected to be partially offset by forecast lower production in Brazil and China.

Sugar production in India is forecast at 27.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, around 1 million tonnes more than in 2013–14. This forecast largely reflects a 5 per cent increase in assumed average sugar yield, resulting from well above average rainfall during the 2013 monsoon. Partially offsetting the effect of this increase is an estimated 2 per cent decline in the area of cane harvested as a result of Indian farmers shifting to production of more profitable alternatives (rice, vegetables, grain sorghum and mint).

58

Sugar


Thailand’s sugar production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to a record 12.2 million tonnes in 2014–15, reflecting an estimated 3 per cent increase in cane planting. This increase in area is based on favourable returns to cane production, largely as a result of the Thai Government redirecting subsidies for rice production to sugar production. As a result, Thailand is forecast to crush 105 million tonnes of cane in 2014–15, compared with 103.7 million tonnes in 2013–14.

In the European Union, sugar production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2014–15 to around 18 million tonnes. This forecast is mainly based on estimated increases in sugar beet planting in Germany and France. The EU quota system will end in 2017, and other EU countries are expected to keep planted areas largely unchanged from 2013–14.

Sugar production in Eastern Europe is forecast to increase by around 15 per cent in 2014–15 to 8.4 million tonnes, based on increased sugar beet planting and assumed higher yields. The Russian Federation is forecast to increase sugar production by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to 5 million tonnes, reflecting the combined effects of an assumed 7 per cent rise in average yield and a 3 per cent increase in beet planting. Sugar production in Ukraine is forecast at around 2 million tonnes in 2014–15, 41 per cent higher than in 2013–14. This forecast reflects an estimated 18 per cent increase in sugar beet planting and an assumed 23 per cent increase in average sugar yield.

In 2014–15 (October to September) in Brazil, sugar cane crush is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to 620 million tonnes, while sugar production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 39.3 million tonnes. These forecast declines are mainly driven by assumed reductions in cane and sugar yields as a result of drought in Brazil’s centre south region, which produces around 90 per cent of its sugar cane. The Brazilian Government intends to increase the ethanol blending ratio for fuel to 27.5 per cent in 2015. This is expected to result in ethanol production remaining largely unchanged at around 28 billion litres in 2014–15. The share of total cane production used to produce ethanol is forecast to increase to 56 per cent (see box).

Sugar cane, sugar and ethanol production, Brazil

Cane production

Sugar production

Mt BL

Ethanol production(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

59

Sugar


Development of the Brazil ethanol industryBrazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of cane-based ethanol. It developed its ethanol industry and established its national alcohol programme in response to the 1970s oil crisis. Through this programme, the Brazilian Government sought to establish an ethanol industry that used relatively low priced sugar cane juice to produce petrochemical fuels. Brazil has since become a world leader in production of cane-based ethanol, accounting for around 28 per cent of world production and 43 per cent of exports in the five years to 2013.

Brazil ethanol indicators

Production

ConsumptionStocks

billionlitres

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Brazilian Government policies make ethanol competitive with alternative fuels. Policies include guaranteed purchases by state-owned oil company Petrobras, low-interest rate loans for agro-industrial ethanol firms, lower excise tax on ethanol compared with petrol and hydrous ethanol prices fixed at 59 per cent of the government-set gasoline price at the pump.

The Brazilian Government also supports domestic ethanol use through market regulation and tax incentives. The government’s key regulation is to set a blending ratio for anhydrous ethanol with gasoline. It has varied the ratio from 10 per cent to 25 per cent over the life of the national alcohol programme. The Brazilian Government increased the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent on 1 May 2013 and recently announced it would raise the ratio to 27.5 per cent in 2015.

These measures have significantly increased Brazil’s ethanol production and consumption, with volumes more than doubling since 2000–01. However, the price of sugar relative to ethanol determines how much sugar cane is allocated to the production of each product. This means that world sugar prices can significantly affect Brazil’s ethanol production. In 2011–12 sugar mills responded to relatively high world sugar prices by reducing sugar cane allocation to ethanol by 3 percentage points to 51.1 per cent, before reducing it to 50 per cent in 2012–13.

continued ...

60

Sugar


Development of the Brazil ethanol industry continued

The subsequent shortage of ethanol resulted in the Brazilian Government reducing the blending mandate from 25 per cent to 20 per cent in October 2011. The government returned the blending mandate to 25 per cent in May 2013, as international sugar prices fell. This resulted in the share of cane allocated to ethanol production rising by around 5 percentage points to 55 per cent. The 2015 increase in the blending ratio is expected to encourage sugar mills to allocate a greater proportion of cane to ethanol production in 2014–15.

Sugar cane allocation to ethanol and sugar–ethanol price ratio

Ethanol’s share

%

Sugar–ethanol price ratio

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

Brazil now has a growing fleet of flexible-fuel vehicles, which can run on ethanol, petrol or any mix of the two fuels. Brazil has the largest fleet of flexible-fuel vehicles in the world, accounting for 81 per cent of its total registered vehicles. By the end of 2013, Brazil had 21.8 million flex-fuel automobiles and light commercial vehicles and around 3 million flex-fuel motorcycles. Flex-fuel vehicles accounted for around 65 per cent of all motor vehicles produced in Brazil, with around 65 per cent of registered vehicles regularly using ethanol fuel.

Brazilian vehicles, by fleet

Gasoline and electric fleet

Flex-fuel fleet

millionvehicles

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

201320112009200720052003

61

Sugar


Chinese sugar production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to around 14 million tonnes. This forecast is based on a combination of an estimated 3 per cent decline in cane and beet planting and an assumed lower average sugar yield. Chinese farmers moved away from sugar cane and beet production in 2014–15 in response to relatively low returns on sugar compared with alternative crops, such as cassava, vegetables and rice.

US sugar production is forecast to decline by around 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 7.6 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated 5 per cent decline in sugar beet planting and cane area harvested. Partially offsetting this forecast decline is an assumed 2 per cent increase in average sugar yield.

Mexican sugar production is forecast at 6.5 million tonnes in 2014–15, similar to the volume produced in 2013–14. Cane area harvested and average yield are expected to remain largely unchanged, assuming average seasonal conditions.

Forecast change in world sugar production in 2014–15, by country

Mt

–0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

world

other

UnitedStates

China

Brazil

EasternEurope

EuropeanUnion

Thailand

India

Australia

Lower prices to boost world sugar consumption in 2014–15World sugar consumption is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to around 183 million tonnes, because relatively low world sugar prices are expected to encourage consumption of sugar over alternative sweeteners (high intensity sweeteners and high fructose corn syrup). Growth in world population and incomes, particularly in China, India and Brazil, is expected to support higher sugar consumption.

62

Sugar


Sugar and high fructose corn syrup prices

USc/lb

a Raw sugar price, duty fee paid, New York. b Spot price, high fructose corn syrup-42, dry weight, Mid West markets. f ABARES forecast.

US sugar a

High fructose corn syrup bWorld sugar

10

20

30

40

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Modest recovery in world sugar trade in 2014–15World sugar exports are forecast to increase by 600 000 tonnes to 59.2 million tonnes in 2014–15, reflecting forecast increases in supplies available for export from Thailand, India, the European Union and Australia. These forecast increases are expected to be partially offset by an expected reduction in exports from Brazil (the world’s largest exporter).

Thailand’s sugar exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 9.5 million tonnes. The supply of sugar available for export is expected to increase in 2014–15, resulting from forecast record production and the domestic consumption quota remaining largely unchanged at 2.5 million tonnes.

Sugar exports from India are forecast at around 2.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, 6 per cent more than in 2013–14. This is based on a forecast increase in domestic production, large carry-over stocks from 2013–14 and the Indian Government’s raw sugar export subsidies. The government approved tax incentives to promote sugar exports in 2013–14 and 2014–15, with the aim of reducing the country’s sugar stocks, infusing capital into the sugar industry and helping struggling millers clear their debts to cane farmers. It has recently increased the subsidy for raw sugar exports to rupiah 3371 (around US$55) a tonne in August to September 2014 from rupiah 3300 (around US$54) a tonne in June to July 2014.

Based on forecast higher production, EU sugar exports are forecast to almost double to 2.6 million tonnes in 2014–15. If realised, the European Union will export well above the maximum limit of 1.3 million tonnes under its World Trade Organization obligations. In contrast, EU imports are forecast to decrease to 4.8 million tonnes in 2014–15 from around 5 million tonnes in 2013–14.

63

Sugar


Brazilian sugar exports are forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2014–15 to around 26 million tonnes. This reflects an expected reduction in export supplies resulting from forecast lower production.

Relatively high US domestic stocks are forecast to result in imports falling by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to around 2.8 million tonnes. This is the minimum the United States can import under its 1.1 million-tonne tariff-free sugar import quota with the World Trade Organization and its 1.7 million-tonne obligation under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Mexican sugar exports are forecast to decline by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.3 million tonnes, reflecting expected lower US import demand.

Russian Federation sugar imports are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes in 2014–15, similar to 2013–14, despite a forecast rise in its domestic production. Sugar consumption in the Russian Federation is forecast at around 6 million tonnes in 2014–15, 26 per cent more than production.

Indonesian sugar imports are forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2014–15 to 3.6 million tonnes. Sugar consumption is expected to rise by around 4 per cent to 6.4 million tonnes, while domestic production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 2.7 million tonnes.

Changes in world sugar exports, 2013–14 and 2014–15, by country

2014–15f

2013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

Mexico

Brazil

India

EuropeanUnion

Thailand

Australia

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

Record world sugar stocks in 2014–15World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to reach a record of around 81 million tonnes in 2014–15, compared with 80 million tonnes in 2013–14. Despite the forecast record levels, world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline to 44 per cent for the first time in five years. This reflects forecast higher world consumption growth relative to production in 2014–15.

64

Sugar


World sugar consumption, stocks changes and stocks-to-use ratio

StocksConsumption

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

%

Stocks-to-useratio (right axis)

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Higher Australian sugar production in 2014–15Australian sugar production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 4.6 million tonnes (raw value), based on a combination of an assumed 3 per cent recovery in average sugar yield and an estimated 2 per cent rise in the area of cane harvested. Cane and sugar yields were lower in 2013–14, reflecting flooding in early 2013 and the spread of canopy syndrome disease in the Bundaberg and Isis regions.

Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL) forecast its gross harvest pool return to increase by around 7.5 per cent in 2014–15 to $412 a tonne International Polarity Scale (IPS), despite an expected fall in world sugar prices. QSL markets more than 90 per cent of Australia’s raw sugar exports. The forecast pool, if realised, will be lower than the record $518 a tonne IPS in 2011–12 but well above the 10-year average to 2010–11 of $271 (2014–15 dollars) a tonne IPS.

Based on the current price forecast and assumed sugar yields from cane, the average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers is forecast at $35 a tonne in 2014–15, compared with $37 a tonne in 2013–14. The decline in return to growers largely reflects expected lower world sugar prices in 2014–15. The forecast mill-gate return, if realised, will be the lowest since 2007–08, when Australian cane growers received $32 a tonne.

Australian raw sugar exports are forecast at 3.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, around 6 per cent higher than in 2013–14. This forecast reflects an expected increase in supplies available for export, resulting from higher production. Based on the forecast higher export volumes and lower world prices, the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to remain largely unchanged at around $1.4 billion in 2014–15.

65

Sugar


In the first half of 2013–14, Australian raw sugar exports were largely unchanged from the 1.8 million tonnes shipped in the first half of 2012–13. Increased shipments to China, Indonesia, Japan and Taiwan offset a decline in exports to the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United States and Malaysia. Raw sugar exports to Indonesia rose by 71 per cent in the first half of 2013–14 to around 530 000 tonnes, compared with the same time in 2012–13, making Indonesia Australia’s largest export destination for raw sugar. Australia exported 95 000 tonnes to China in the first half of 2013–14, compared with 27 000 tonnes in the whole of 2011–12, the last time Australia sent shipments to China.

Sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers, Australia

Production

Exports

kt2014–15$/t

Return to cane growers (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Sugar outlook a

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

Production Mt 185.3 182.7 183.7 0.5– Brazil Mt 40.9 40.2 39.3 –2.2Consumption Mt 175.6 178.7 182.5 2.1Exports Mt 61.1 58.6 59.2 1.0Closing stocks Mt 75.8 79.8 81.0 1.5Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 43.2 44.6 44.4 –0.4Price USc/lb 18.0 17.0 14.0 –17.6

Area ’000 ha 371.0 375.0 381.0 1.6Production kt 4 300.0 4 380.0 4 599.6 5.0Exports kt 3 003.6 3 107.0 3 277.9 5.5– value A$m 1 437.4 1 360.3 1 359.0 –0.1

SugaroutlookaWorld b

Australia c

a Volumes are raw value equivalent. b October–September years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


• The world cotton indicator price is forecast to decline in 2014–15, reflecting forecast higher world (excluding China) production and stocks.

• World cotton exports are forecast to decline in 2014–15, mainly reflecting forecast lower import demand from China and a smaller exportable surplus in India—the world’s second largest exporter.

• Australian cotton production is forecast to fall in 2014–15 to the lowest level in five years, in response to reduced availability of irrigation water and lower world prices.

• Australian cotton exports to Vietnam were around 510 000 tonnes in 2013–14, almost double the volume shipped in 2012–13.

World cotton prices to decline in 2014–15The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to average US70 cents a pound in 2014–15 (August to July), around 23 per cent lower than in 2013–14. This forecast reflects world cotton stocks reaching record levels as a result of large world closing stocks in 2013–14 and expected higher production than consumption in 2014–15. The world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to increase to a record 94 per cent by the end of the 2014–15 season. The world ratio excluding China is expected to rise for the first time in three years, by 5 percentage points to 57 per cent. China’s cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline for the first time in four years as a result of changes in the Chinese Government’s strategic stockpiling policy.

For the 2014–15 season the Chinese Government will replace its stockpile policy with direct income support to producers. Domestically, this policy change has resulted in a significant decline in cotton planting, which is expected to reduce China’s share of world production by 2 percentage points to 25 per cent. Internationally, significantly lower imports by China are forecast to result in record world closing stocks (excluding China) and put downward pressure on world cotton prices in 2014–15. Should the Chinese Government decide to release its cotton stocks onto the world market, world cotton prices in 2014–15 would be significantly lower than currently forecast.

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

67

Cotton


World cotton indicators (annual)

Production

ConsumptionStocks

Mt

5

10

15

20

25

30

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

World cotton production largely unchanged in 2014–15World cotton production is forecast to be 26 million tonnes in 2014–15, largely unchanged from 2013–14. This forecast reflects around a 1.9 per cent decline in assumed average lint yield, partially offset by a 1.5 per cent rise in cotton planting in response to higher domestic prices in most producing countries. Lower production forecasts for China, India and Australia are expected to more than offset higher production expected in the United States, Brazil and Turkey. Improved seasonal conditions in the United States and Turkey have resulted in increased plantings and expected higher average yields. In Brazil, favourable domestic prices resulted in increased cotton plantings.

Domestic and world cotton prices (annual)

USc/lb

ChinaIndiaOutlook ‘A’ indexBrazil

30

60

90

120

150

180

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

f ABARES forecast.

Since 2012–13 world cotton production has been relatively high, despite a significant decline in world cotton prices. In 2013–14 the Cotlook ‘A’ index dropped by 45 per cent to US90.6 cents a pound from its record high in 2011–12. In contrast, world cotton production declined by only 6 per cent. The slower decline in production relative to price largely reflects some producing countries implementing support measures for cotton production (see box).

68

Cotton


Government support and cotton productionThe governments of several cotton producing countries have policies to support cotton production when world prices are low. Support includes direct payments, trade policies, crop insurance subsidies and minimum support prices. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) estimates that total direct payments to cotton growers are equivalent to a subsidy of around US27 cents for each pound of world cotton production. Total government support for world cotton production was estimated at a record US$9.3 billion in 2012–13, more than double the average support of US$4.8 billion over the 10 years to 2011–12. In 2013–14 total subsidies to cotton growers declined to US$7.2 billion as the Cotlook ‘A’ index rose by 3 per cent to average US90.6 cents a pound.

World price and government support for cotton production

World subsidies

US$b USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ index (right axis)

2

4

6

8

10

40

80

120

160

200

2013–14

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

The Chinese and US governments jointly accounted for around 80 per cent of total support for domestic cotton production in the 10 years to 2013–14. The European Union (Greece and Spain), Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, Mali and Burkina Faso also maintained support policies over the same period.

Subsidies for cotton production, by country

Other

TurkeyEuropean Union

ChinaUnited States

US$b

2

4

6

8

10

2013–14

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

continued ...

69

Cotton


Government support and cotton production continued

The most common form of government subsidy is a minimum support price. The United States, China, India, Brazil, Mali, Burkina Faso and the European Union use this to ensure cotton is bought from farmers at a set minimum price. Governments do not operate minimum support price programmes when market prices are above their intervention prices (government-imposed minimum or maximum prices to help regulate domestic cotton prices). In 2012–13 and 2013–14 neither India, Brazil nor Turkey purchased any cotton direct from farmers because world prices were above intervention prices. However, ICAC estimated that the Turkish Government made direct payments to growers of around US$488 million (equivalent to US$846 a tonne) in 2012–13 and of around US$454 million (equivalent to US$906 a tonne) in 2013–14.

Minimum support and world prices for cotton

USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ indexUS target priceBrazilIndiaChina

30

60

90

120

150

180

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

The Chinese Government supports its domestic cotton production, with ICAC estimating it paid 72.4 per cent of global subsidies in the three years to 2013–14. Subsidies were mainly a combination of direct purchases of cotton from domestic producers and import quota restrictions.

Since 2011–12 the Chinese Government has purchased around 16 million tonnes of raw cotton directly from domestic producers and 1.6 million tonnes from the international market for its national strategic reserve. Despite world cotton production exceeding consumption for the past four years, China supported domestic and international prices by building stocks. This resulted in China accounting for around 61 per cent of world stocks by the end of 2013–14 (August to July). According to ICAC, the resulting higher domestic prices from government purchases benefited Chinese cotton growers by the equivalent of around US$5.5 billion in 2012–13 and US$4.8 billion in 2013–14.

Over the past three seasons, the Chinese Government also spent around US$450 million on subsidies for high-quality cottonseed and a further US$480 million to help growers in Xinjiang province transport cotton to mills.

continued ...

70

Cotton


Cotton production in the United States is forecast to be 3.8 million tonnes in 2014–15, around 36 per cent higher than in 2013–14. This largely reflects an assumed return to average seasonal conditions following dry conditions over the past three years. Cotton planting is estimated to have increased by 9 per cent and assumed average yield is expected to increase by around 27 per cent. The US abandonment rate for cotton (the area planted but not harvested because of poor yields) is expected to decline by 18 percentage points in 2014–15 to 10 per cent.

Government support and cotton production continued

For the 2014–15 season the Chinese Government will replace its stockpile policy with direct income support, which will be limited to producers in Xinjiang province—where around 40 per cent of China’s cotton is produced. This change has led growers in other regions to significantly reduce cotton planting for the 2014–15 season. As a result, China’s share of world cotton production and China’s closing stocks are forecast to decline in 2014–15 by 2 percentage points to 25 per cent and 59 per cent, respectively.

ICAC estimates that cotton producers in the United States received direct payments of around US$580 million in 2012–13 and US$593 million in 2013–14. Direct payments are based on historical planted area and yields and are independent of market prices. The US Government also supports cotton producers through subsidising insurance against crop losses caused by natural disasters. According to ICAC’s estimates, premium subsidies averaged US$819 million in 2011–12, compared with the average for the 14 years to 2010–11 of US$226 million. This sharp rise in subsidies reflected higher insurance premiums (because of record cotton prices) and higher domestic production. In 2012–13 insurance subsidies declined to US$562 million, before falling to US$453 million in 2013–14. Despite continued government support for US cotton growers, severe drought conditions constrained production in 2013–14, which resulted in a decline in production of more than 25 per cent.

US Government support for cotton growers has declined in recent years, largely as a result of Brazil’s challenge to the legality of US cotton support policies at the World Trade Organization. The 2014 US Farm Bill includes several substantive changes to both cotton support and export credit guarantee programmes. Price and income support offered for other programme crops is no longer available for cotton. Instead producers of upland cotton will rely on a within-year, market-based insurance guarantee—the Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX)—as its primary support measure. These policy changes are likely to result in reduced cotton planting in the United States when world prices are relatively low.

71

Cotton


Cotton area and lint yield, United States

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha t/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.Note: Lint yield is based on area planted.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

In Brazil, cotton production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes in 2014‒15. This mainly reflects a forecast 3 per cent rise in cotton plantings in response to relatively favourable domestic cotton prices. Average yield is assumed to be 1.5 tonnes a hectare, assuming a return to closer to average yields following a record yield in 2013–14.

Cotton production in Turkey is forecast to rebound to 640 000 tonnes in 2014–15, around 28 per cent more than in 2013–14. Area planted to cotton increased by 28 per cent, driven by relatively high domestic cotton prices, a 10 per cent increase in the Turkish Government’s production bonus to 550 Turkish lira (around US$244) a tonne and an expansion of irrigation facilities in the south-eastern Anatolian region (where more than 60 per cent of Turkish cotton is produced).

In 2014–15 cotton production in India is forecast to be 6.6 million tonnes, around 2 per cent lower than the record harvest of 2013–14. Average yield is assumed to decline by around 12 per cent, based on the India Meteorological Department’s forecast that the 2014 monsoon season will deliver rainfall below the long-term average. Cotton planting is estimated to increase by 10 per cent to a record of 12.5 million hectares.

Cotton production in China is forecast to decline by 8 per cent to around 6.4 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast is largely based on an estimated 13 per cent decline in cotton planting in response to changes in government policy. Partially offsetting this decline is an assumed 5 per cent rise in average yield.

72

Cotton


Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country

2014–15f

2013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Uzbekistan

India

China

Australia

Turkey

Pakistan

Brazil

United States

Lower prices to boost world cotton consumption in 2014–15World cotton consumption is forecast to increase by around 4 per cent to 24.5 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast increase mainly reflects the combined effects of forecast lower world prices and rising consumer incomes in developing countries, particularly China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Turkey (the main consumers of raw cotton). Forecast consumption growth, if realised, will be well above the 10-year average to 2012–13 of 1.1 per cent.

Cotton consumption in China—the world’s largest cotton consumer—is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to around 8 million tonnes in 2014–15, its first growth in four years. Despite forecast lower world prices, consumption growth in China is expected to be constrained by competition from alternative fibres, particularly polyester, which currently have relatively low prices.

World monthly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

China cotton index (328)

Polyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)Polyester staple, Taiwan (cotton equivalent)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Aug2014

Feb2014

Aug2013

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

Aug2010

Feb2010

Aug2009

73

Cotton


Record world cotton stocks in 2014–15World cotton closing stocks are forecast to reach a record 23 million tonnes in 2014–15, 6 per cent larger than in 2013–14. These stock levels are close to annual world cotton consumption. The world stocks-to-use ratio for cotton is forecast to be a record 94 per cent, 2 percentage points higher than in 2013–14. While the world ratio excluding China is forecast to increase by 5 percentage points to 57 per cent, the ratio for China is forecast to decrease by 7 percentage points to 171 per cent by the end of 2014–15. The expected growth in the world stocks-to-use ratio for cotton outside China is the first in three years, reflecting forecast higher world (excluding China) production and a decline in Chinese cotton imports.

Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

%

ChinaWorldWorld excluding China

30

60

90

120

150

180

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

f ABARES forecast.

World trade lower in 2014–15World cotton exports are forecast to decline by 11 per cent to around 8 million tonnes in 2014‒15, driven mainly by a 41 per cent decline in Chinese imports. Forecast lower cotton production in major exporting countries such as India and Australia and expected higher domestic demand in India will also reduce the amount of cotton available for export.

Cotton imports by China are forecast to be 1.7 million tonnes in 2014–15, almost half the amount imported in 2013–14. This sharp decline is the result of a slowing of Chinese stock building and large existing cotton stocks, which could supply domestic mill use for almost two years. The forecast Chinese imports, if realised, would be the lowest in six years.

In India—the world’s second largest cotton exporter—exports are forecast to decrease by 36 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast is based on lower domestic cotton production, higher domestic cotton consumption reducing volumes available for export and expected weaker import demand from China. The forecast exports, if realised, would be the lowest in four years.

74

Cotton


Cotton exports by the United States—the world’s largest exporter—are forecast to be largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting forecast higher stock accumulation and domestic consumption. US cotton closing stocks are forecast to almost double to 1.1 million tonnes, despite consumption increasing by 6 per cent to 830 000 tonnes.

Cotton exports in Brazil are forecast to be 806 000 tonnes in 2014–15, around 66 per cent larger than in 2013–14. This forecast reflects increased availability of cotton for export, resulting from large carry-over stocks from the 2013–14 season and a forecast 5 per cent decline in domestic consumption.

Lower Australian cotton production in 2014–15Australian cotton production is forecast to be 580 000 tonnes in 2014–15, around 35 per cent lower than in 2013–14. Cotton planting is forecast to decline by 28 per cent to around 282 000 hectares in response to expected lower world cotton prices and reduced availability of irrigation water. Average yields are assumed to decline by 9 per cent to 2.1 tonnes a hectare as a result of reduced water available for irrigation, following three years of plentiful water supplies. The production forecast is expected to be the lowest in five years but well above the 10-year average to 2009–10 of 465 000 tonnes.

In 2013–14 cotton planting was restricted to irrigated areas because of dry seasonal conditions and low soil moisture profiles. However, plentiful water supplies boosted irrigated yields, which enabled Australian cotton production to reach 890 000 tonnes.

The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving the Australian cotton growing region was 36 per cent of capacity on 10 September 2014, down from 95 per cent at the same time in 2012. Current dam levels are 7 percentage points above the 10-year average to 2010 of 29 per cent. With little rainfall received over recent months, inflows of water into the main cotton irrigation dams have been below average and soil moisture profiles have remained dry. As a result, planting will likely be limited to irrigated areas.

Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 10 September 2014

%

New South Wales Queensland

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

othe

r

othe

r

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

20122014

Average of the 10 yearsto 2010

20

40

60

80

100

75

Cotton


Australian cotton prices to decline in 2014–15The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to average $498 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs) in 2014–15, 7 per cent lower than in 2013–14. This forecast decline largely reflects forecast lower world cotton prices. The forecast return to growers is the lowest since 2005–06, when Australian cotton growers received around $483 a bale (in 2014–15 dollars). The forward cash price for lint on offer to Australian cotton growers at 8 September 2014 was $392 a bale for 2014 delivery (2014–15 crop) and $390 a bale for 2015 delivery.

Lower Australian cotton exports in 2014–15Australian cotton exports are forecast to be 821 000 tonnes in 2014–15, compared with around 1.04 million tonnes shipped in 2013–14. This forecast decline is driven by lower cotton production in 2013–14 and 2014–15. Almost all Australian cotton production is exported. Australia’s typical March to June harvest period results in cotton produced in one financial year being exported across two financial years. Despite forecast lower exports, Australia is expected to remain the world’s third largest cotton exporter in 2014–15, behind the United States and India.

In 2013–14 Australian cotton exports were 1.04 million tonnes compared with a record 1.3 million tonnes shipped in 2012–13. Australian raw cotton exports to Vietnam increased by 89 per cent to 510 000 tonnes in 2013–14.

Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

Production

Exports

kt2014–15$/bale

Gin-gate return a (right axis)

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

300

600

900

1200

1500

200

400

600

800

1000

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

76

Cotton


Cotton outlook

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % change

World aP d ti Mt 26 8 26 0 25 9 0 4World aProduction Mt 26.8 26.0 25.9 –0.4Consumption Mt 23.2 23.6 24.5 3.8Consumption Exports Mt 10.2 8.9 7.9 –11.2Exports Mt 10.2 8.9 7.9 –11.2Closing stocks Mt 19 6 21 8 23 0 5 5Closing stocks Mt 19.6 21.8 23.0 5.5Stocks to se ratio % 84 3 92 2 93 9Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 84.3 92.2 93.9

l k ‘ ’ d /Cotlook ‘A’ index USc/lb 87.9 90.6 70.0 –22.7/Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 442 392 282 –28 1Australia bArea harvested 000 ha 442 392 282 –28.1Lint production kt 1 018 890 580 34 8Lint production kt 1 018 890 580 –34.8E t kt 1 305 1 037 821 20 8Exports kt 1 305 1 037 821 –20.8– value A$m 2 695 2 352 1 670 –29.0 value A$m 2 695 2 352 1 670 29.0a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of AgricultureSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

‘‘


• In 2014–15 the value of horticultural production is forecast to increase by 4.5 per cent to $9.5 billion.

• Rapid expansion of the Australian almond industry led to strong growth in exports in 2012–13 and 2013–14.

The gross value of horticultural production is estimated to have increased by 0.9 per cent in 2013–14 to $9.1 billion, as strong growth in the value of tree nut production offset modest declines in the value of fruit and vegetables.

The estimated fall in the value of fruit and vegetable production in 2013–14 largely reflects a return to more normal seasonal conditions after favourable conditions led to larger harvests for some crops in 2012–13.

Domestic demand for horticultural products has grown steadily; fruit and tree nuts have also benefited from strong export growth in recent years. In 2012–13 (the latest year for which official data are available) the gross value of fruit production (excluding wine grapes) was $3.5 billion, compared with $3.8 billion for vegetables, $0.4 billion for tree nuts and $1.3 billion for other horticulture.

Outlook for vegetablesAfter increasing by 13 per cent in 2012–13, the gross value of Australian vegetable production is estimated to have fallen by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to $3.7 billion. This partly reflects lower estimated production of key commodities such as potatoes and tomatoes.

Assuming normal seasonal conditions in major growing regions, the gross value of vegetable production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15. Major vegetable producing areas in south-east Queensland are experiencing adverse seasonal conditions, but the impact on irrigated horticulture is expected to be relatively limited because water availability is adequate.

The value of Australian vegetable production has increased over the past decade. In 2012–13 the gross value of the Australian vegetable industry was 27 per cent higher than in 2002–03 in real terms. Traditional crops including potatoes, tomatoes, mushrooms, onions and carrots made up almost 50 per cent of the value of production in 2012–13, although in recent years the value of lettuce, melon and bean production has grown strongly.

HorticultureJenny Eather

78

Horticulture


Real value of Australian vegetable production, 1994–95 to 2012–13

2012–13A$b

Other

Carrots

Onions

Mushrooms

Tomatoes

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Potatoes

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

PotatoesThe potato industry is Australia’s largest vegetable industry. In 2012–13 it produced almost 1.3 million tonnes, with a gross value of $690 million. The value of production increased by 10 per cent in 2012–13, reflecting a recovery in average unit values partly offset by a small decrease in volume.

The Australian potato industry supplies potatoes for fresh consumption and processing. In 2010–11 (the latest year for which data are available) the fresh potato industry made up 40 per cent of potato production by volume but almost 60 per cent by value. The fresh potato industry is focused almost entirely on the domestic market. Exports amount to only about 1 per cent of production each year.

Over the past decade cheaper imports of processed potatoes (as a result of the high value of the Australian dollar) and increasing domestic input costs have led to a number of processors closing plants. This has put pressure on Australian growers of potatoes for processing.

Tasmania is the largest producer of processing potatoes, followed by South Australia and Victoria. South Australia and Victoria are the largest producers of fresh potatoes.

Australia does not allow imports of fresh potatoes because of biosecurity concerns. New Zealand is the largest source of imports of processed potatoes.

In 2014–15 potato production is forecast to decrease by 0.9 per cent to 1.26 million tonnes, after an estimated decrease of 0.5 per cent in 2013–14.

TomatoesIn 2012–13 Australian growers produced 455 654 tonnes of tomatoes, worth $438.7 million. This was a 23 per cent increase from the previous year in volume terms and a 25 per cent increase in value terms. The increase largely reflected favourable seasonal conditions in major growing areas.

In 2014–15 Australian tomato production is forecast to increase to 460 000 tonnes.

Tomato production varies markedly with seasonal conditions. Tomatoes are vulnerable to cold, frost and high temperatures early in the growing season. Field-grown tomato yields are adversely affected by dry conditions through the growing season and rainfall during harvest. Wet conditions in growing areas in Victoria and New South Wales during harvest time led to reduced yields in 2010–11 and 2011–12.

79

Horticulture


The tomato industry (like the potato industry) has two distinct sectors: fresh market and processing. Queensland is the largest producer of fresh tomatoes, followed by Victoria and New South Wales. Processing tomatoes are grown as an irrigated summer crop in Victoria and New South Wales.

In 2013–14 tomato production is estimated at 430 000 tonnes. Exports of fresh tomatoes and processed tomato products (including tomato sauces and pastes) increased as the Australian dollar depreciated, improving Australian product competitiveness. The value of processed tomato product exports grew by 96 per cent, with strong growth in demand from Japan, Italy and China. Exports of fresh tomatoes increased by 42 per cent, mainly reflecting the resumption of exports to New Zealand, Australia’s largest export market. Exports had been suspended in 2011 pending agreement on biosecurity arrangements. Exports to Singapore, Australia’s second-biggest market, also increased in 2013–14.

Outlook for fruitThe gross value of Australian fruit production (excluding wine grapes) is estimated to have fallen by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to $3.41 billion, following an increase of 10 per cent in 2012–13. This estimated fall in the value of fruit production partly reflected a fall in production of apples, avocados, mangoes and stone fruit. Average prices for stone fruit and pears are also estimated to have fallen.

Supplies of irrigation water in key growing areas are adequate; assuming normal seasonal conditions in major growing regions, the gross value of fruit production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15.

In 2012–13 the most valuable Australian fruit industries were bananas, apples and oranges. Other important fruit crops included table grapes, avocados, strawberries, olives, mandarins, cherries, pears and mangoes.

BananasIn 2012–13 Australia produced 330 340 tonnes of bananas with a gross value of production of $490.7 million, making bananas the most valuable fruit crop. Production levels have fully recovered after Cyclone Yasi, which severely reduced production in 2011.

In 2013–14 production is estimated to have reached a record 369 000 tonnes, reflecting increased plantings. Production is forecast to increase a further 2 per cent in 2014–15.

Bananas are predominantly grown along the east coast of Australia in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Western Australia and the Northern Territory also account for some production. The concentration of banana plantations in areas prone to tropical storms makes the industry vulnerable to severe weather events.

The Australian banana industry is almost entirely domestically focused. Biosecurity regulations prohibit fresh banana imports from any country. In 2013–14 Australia imported $1 million worth of dried bananas, mostly from low-cost producers Thailand and the Philippines. High production costs limit the ability of Australian growers to compete on export markets. In 2013–14 Australian banana exports amounted to only $110 000. Nauru was the main destination.

80

Horticulture


ApplesAustralian apple growers produced 288 878 tonnes of fruit in 2012–13, with a gross value of production of $441.4 million. In 2013–14 apple production is estimated to have fallen by 4 per cent to 278 000 tonnes. Extreme heat during the growing season and rain during harvest affected apple production in some major growing areas. Yields were down but quality was generally good, which led to higher prices. Seasonal conditions were more favourable in Tasmania, where producers benefited from both higher production volumes and firmer wholesale prices.

Supplies of irrigation water are adequate; assuming a return to normal conditions, apple production is forecast to increase to 300 000 tonnes in 2014–15.

The Australian apple industry is largely focused on the domestic market. Exports and imports represent a very small proportion of total production.

In 2013–14 exports of fresh and dried apples fell by 35 per cent to $4.8 million. This continued the declining trend of the previous decade, of Australia experiencing difficulty competing with lower-cost producers. The value of Australian fresh apple exports in 2013–14 was 72 per cent below the 10-year average to 2011–12 in real terms. In 2013–14 exports of apple juice amounted to $4.9 million but have also been trending downwards.

Only China and New Zealand have met biosecurity conditions to export fresh apples to Australia. The volume of imports is expected to increase in the coming years, but in 2013–14 Australia imported the equivalent of only 0.1 per cent of domestic fresh apple production. Imports of apple juice were more substantial, worth $47.3 million in 2013–14.

OrangesAustralia produced 400 554 tonnes of oranges in 2012–13, with a gross value of $345.9 million. Production is estimated to have reached 430 000 tonnes in 2013–14. This increased production reflects adequate water supplies in major growing areas and maturation of plantings to bearing age. Despite increased supply, the generally high-quality harvest and strong export demand maintained prices.

Orange production is forecast to increase a further 3.5 per cent in 2014–15 to 445 000 tonnes.

Australia mainly produces two orange varieties: navel and valencia. Navel oranges are mostly sold fresh and valencia oranges are used primarily for juicing. Most oranges are produced in the Riverland in South Australia, Sunraysia in Victoria and the Riverina in New South Wales, although Queensland and Western Australia also have sizeable industries.

The orange industry has a strong export focus, unlike the banana and apple industries. In 2013–14 Australia exported 129 969 tonnes of oranges, almost one-third of total estimated production. Export volumes were 5 per cent lower than in 2012–13, but the value of orange exports increased by 4 per cent (taking account of inflation). The major markets for orange exports in 2013–14 were Japan, Hong Kong, the United States and China.

81

Horticulture


Volume of orange exports and imports and domestic price, by month

ktindexJan 2012=100

Orange exportsOrange imports

50

100

150

200

250

7

14

21

28

35

Domestic indicatorprice a (right axis)

a Melbourne wholesale markets average navel price.Source: DATAFRESH, Fresh State Limited, Melbourne Markets

Jun2014

Mar2014

Dec2013

Sep2013

Jun2013

Mar2013

Dec2012

Sep2012

Jun2012

Mar2012

Australia imports fresh oranges during summer, when none are produced domestically. In 2013–14 Australia imported 19 800 tonnes of fresh oranges. Almost all orange imports are from the United States, which is also a market for Australian oranges during the southern hemisphere producing season.

Outlook for tree nutsThe gross value of Australian tree nut production in 2013–14 is estimated to have increased by 54 per cent to $684.3 million, from $444.3 million in 2012–13. This increase largely reflects increased almond production. Almond and macadamia production made up 94 per cent of the total value of production. The gross value of nut production is forecast to increase to $706 million in 2014–15.

AlmondsAustralian almond production has increased rapidly in the past two years, driven primarily by an increase in the number of mature trees. In 2006 and 2007, growers planted around 3.4 million almond trees on 12 500 hectares in response to strong global demand for almonds. Almond trees begin to produce at three years old and yields increase with age until around eight years, when they stabilise. In 2012–13 the total number of trees was 6.9 million, which included about half a million of less than bearing age.

In 2012–13 Australia produced 56 800 tonnes of almonds, with a gross value of production of $315.1 million, up 83 per cent in volume terms and 142 per cent in value terms from 2011–12. In 2013–14 almond production is estimated to have increased by another 30 per cent to 74 000 tonnes.

In 2014–15 almond production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to 80 000 tonnes.

82

Horticulture


Australian almond production, by volume and real value, 1995–1996 to 2014–15

ProductionValue (right axis)

kt2014–15A$m

20

40

60

80

100

120

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014–15f

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARES estimate for almond GVP for 2007–08 and 2009–10.

The Australian almond industry is now highly export focused, producing more than three times the quantity consumed domestically. In 2013–14 the value of almond exports increased by 142 per cent, making almonds Australia’s largest horticultural export. This reflected an increase of about 80 per cent in export volumes coupled with an increase in world prices, as demand remained strong and stocks in major exporting countries fell. Australia is now the second largest producer of almonds, accounting for about 7 per cent of global production. The largest producer is the United States, which accounts for about 80 per cent of global production.

MacadamiasIn 2013–14 Australian macadamia production is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent to 36 000 tonnes. This reflects favourable weather conditions in growing areas and increased plantings in recent years. It follows a 2012–13 increase of 2.8 per cent to 31 200 tonnes, valued at $101.7 million.

In 2014–15 macadamia nut production is forecast to increase to 40 000 tonnes.

World macadamia production, by volume, 2013

Australia 28%South Africa 27%United States 17%Kenya 13%Malawi 5%Other 10%

Source: International Nut and Dried Fruit Council 2014

83

Horticulture


Australia’s main macadamia growing region stretches along the east coast of Australia from the mid north coast of New South Wales to Mackay in Queensland. The industry is growing rapidly, particularly in the Bundaberg region in Queensland. In 2012–13 approximately 12 per cent of macadamia trees in Australia were yet to reach bearing age.

As of 2013 Australia was the largest producer of macadamia nuts globally, although South Africa, the United States and Kenya have gained market share in recent years.

Australia’s trade in fruits, nuts and vegetablesAustralia’s trade deficit in fruit, nuts and vegetables contracted by 7 per cent in real terms in 2013–14 to $512 million, after contracting by 40 per cent in 2012–13. Fruit and nut exports performed especially well in 2012–13 and 2013–14. Australia became a net importer of fruit, tree nuts and vegetables (fresh and processed, excluding wine) in 2003–04 but has remained a net exporter of fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables. Counter-seasonality is important in Australia’s imports of fresh fruit and vegetables, including citrus, table grapes and asparagus.

Australia’s net trade in fruit, nuts and vegetables, 1996–97 to 2013–14

Fresh vegetablesFresh fruit and nuts

2013–14$m

All fruit, nuts, vegetables(excluding wine)

Processed fruit, nuts and vegetables (excluding wine)

–1000–800–600–400–200

0

200400600800

2013–14

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

Vegetable exportsIn 2013–14 Australian vegetable exports were valued at $270 million. Fresh vegetables represented 60 per cent of the total. The most important fresh vegetable exports have a relatively long shelf life: carrots, potatoes, onions and asparagus. Vegetable seed exports have also grown strongly in recent years; they were Australia’s third largest vegetable export in 2013–14.

In 2014–15 Australian vegetable exports are forecast to rise by 2 per cent to $275 million.

The most important markets for Australian fresh and processed vegetables in 2013–14 were New Zealand ($41 million), Japan ($39 million), Singapore ($25 million) and the United Arab Emirates ($23 million).

84

Horticulture


The value of Australian vegetable exports increased by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to $269.9 million, with carrots and tomatoes accounting for most of the increase. However, in real terms this was still 21 per cent below the average of the 10 years to 2011–12. The value of Australian vegetable exports has trended downwards over the past decade.

Real value of Australian vegetable exports and exchange rate, 2000–01 to 2013–14

Vegetable exportsExchange rate(right axis)

2013–14A$m A$/US$

100

200

300

400

500

600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Increased competition from other countries, particularly China, has weakened demand for Australian vegetable exports. China accounts for about half of world vegetable production and is the world’s largest exporter. China has a strong competitive advantage in vegetable production and processing because of its relatively low labour costs.

Australian vegetable export markets, 2000–01, 2006–07 and 2013–14

2013–14A$m

2000–012006–07

2013–14

30

60

90

120

150

180

otherUnited ArabEmirates

SingaporeNewZealand

MalaysiaJapan

85

Horticulture


In 2000–01 Japan and Malaysia were Australia’s largest export markets for vegetables. By 2012–13 the real value of Australian exports to those countries had fallen by 65 per cent and 78 per cent, respectively. Over the same period, the real value of Chinese vegetable exports to Japan increased by 38 per cent and to Malaysia by 195 per cent.

Australia’s vegetable exports are valued for their quality. Singapore, for example, consumed $9 million worth of Australian carrots in 2013–14 at a considerable price premium. As incomes rise in Asia, health-conscious middle-class consumers are expected to increase their demand for quality Australian vegetables.

Australian vegetable exports to Asian and Pacific countries have fallen over the past decade. In contrast, exports to the Middle East have grown rapidly. The value of vegetable exports to the United Arab Emirates increased by 25 per cent in 2013–14. The United Arab Emirates is now the largest market for Australian carrots and the fourth largest for vegetables overall. Vegetable exports to Saudi Arabia have also grown rapidly in recent years but from a much lower base.

Fruit exportsAustralian fruit exports increased by 48 per cent in real terms between 2010–11 and 2013–14, from $503 million to $743 million (in 2014–15 dollars). This can be attributed to strong export growth of table grapes, fresh oranges, mandarins, cherries and mangoes. Table grape exports, in particular, have grown rapidly.

In 2014–15 Australian fruit exports are expected to be supported by a forecast increase in domestic production and continued demand in export markets. Australian fruit exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to $760 million.

Real value of Australian fruit exports, 2010–11 to 2014–15

Other

MangoesCherriesMandarinsFresh oranges

2014–15A$m

Table grapes

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013–14

2012–13

2011–12

2010–11

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

The United States has been an important market for Australian citrus exports, but market share has fallen. The citrus industry has refocused on the Asian region. Exports to China grew tenfold in 2012–13 and tripled in 2013–14; China is now Australia’s third-largest citrus export destination.

86

Horticulture


Real value of Australian citrus exports, fresh or dried (excludes juice), 2000–01 to 2013–14

2013–14A$m

Rest of world

United States

China

Hong Kong

Japan

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Nut exportsAustralian tree nut exports increased by 76 per cent in 2013–14, following a 45 per cent increase in 2012–13.

In 2014–15 Australian tree nut exports are forecast to increase by 14 per cent to $695 million. The depreciation of the Australian dollar since 2011–12 and increased forecast production are expected to support Australian macadamia exports.

Macadamia production and real value of exports

2014–15A$m kt

Production (right axis)Real exports

50

100

150

200

250

10

20

30

40

50

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

f ABARES forecast.

Almond exports have increased rapidly in recent years. In 2003–04 the real value of almond exports was $24 million (in 2014–15 dollars) and accounted for 12 per cent of tree nut exports by value. By 2013–14 the value of almond exports was 20 times higher, in real terms, than in 2003–04 and accounted for over three-quarters of Australian tree nut exports. Almond exports are forecast to rise further in 2014–15, although at a slower rate than in the previous two years. This mainly reflects a forecast slowing in growth in production.

87

Horticulture


Almonds account for almost all of the growth in production and exports in the Australian tree nut industry in the past decade. Walnut exports have grown faster but from a much lower base. In 2013–14 the value of walnut exports was $19.4 million, 45 times higher than a decade earlier in real terms.

Real value of Australian tree nut exports, 2000–01 to 2014–15

2014–15A$m

Other

Walnuts

Macadamia nuts

Almonds

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

f ABARES forecast.

Impact of the Russian ban on Australian horticultural exportsIn August 2014 the Russian Federation announced a year-long ban on imports of agricultural commodities (including fruit, vegetables and nuts) from Australia, the United States, Canada, the European Union and Norway.

The effect of this ban on vegetable exports is expected to be limited, because the Russian Federation is a small market for Australian vegetables and has been declining in importance in recent years.

The Russian Federation was a relatively small but rapidly growing export market for fruit and nut exports. Australian fruit exports to the Russian Federation rose by 43 per cent in 2012–13, followed by an increase of 32 per cent to $9.5 million in 2013–14. However, this accounted for only 1.3 per cent of all Australian fruit exports. Fresh grapes, mandarins, cherries and mangoes were the largest-value fruit exports to the Russian Federation in 2013–14. Strong growth in demand for these fruits from other markets, particularly in Asia, is expected to offset the impact on Australian exports of the Russian ban. Exports of fruits with a longer shelf life, such as apples and pears, may face competition in other markets as EU and North American fruit is diverted away from the Russian Federation.

Almonds (valued at $3.4 million) were the only nut Australia exported to the Russian Federation in 2013–14. The Russian Federation represented only 0.7 per cent of Australia’s almond export market in 2013 but accounted for 3 per cent of world almond imports. Almost all imports were sourced from the United States and the European Union. US and EU production is expected to be diverted to other markets, but strong demand growth and low world stocks will limit downward pressure on prices.

88

Horticulture


Horticulture outlook2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % change

Gross value of production A$m 9 020 9 100 9 512 4 5Gross value of production A$m 9 020 9 100 9 512 4.5

$Fruit and tree nuts a A$m 3 966 4 100 4 236 3.3 Fruit and tree nuts a A$m 3 966 4 100 4 236 3.3V t bl A$ 3 770 3 703 3 899 5 3 Vegetables A$m 3 770 3 703 3 899 5.3 Vegetables $Other horticulture A$m 1 285 1 297 1 376 6 1 Other horticulture A$m 1 285 1 297 1 376 6.1E tExportsF it A$ 634 724 760 5 0Exports Fruits A$m 634 724 760 5.0 Fruits A$m 634 724 760 5.0Vegetables A$m 260 270 275 1 9 Vegetables A$m 260 270 275 1.9gTree nuts A$m 348 610 695 13.9 Tree nuts A$m 348 610 695 13.9N A$ 12 11 11 4 4 Nursery A$m 12 11 11 – 4.4 Nursery A$m 12 11 11 4.4Other horticulture A$m 224 250 263 5 0 Other horticulture A$m 224 250 263 5.0Total horticulture A$m 1 478 1 865 2 003 7.4 Total horticulture A$m 1 478 1 865 2 003 7.4I l d bl f ABARES f ABARES ia Includes table grapes. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a Includes table grapes. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

Sources ABARES Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics;

89

Horticulture


Table grape exportsTable grapes were Australia’s most valuable fruit export in 2013–14. The total value of fresh grape exports increased by 23 per cent in real terms to $227 million, following a 76 per cent increase in 2012–13. This largely reflected increased export volumes, although export unit values also improved in 2013–14 as a result of the slightly weaker Australian dollar.

Globally, the value of fresh grape imports more than doubled in real terms between 2000 and 2012. Europe and North America continued to be the largest importers, supplied mainly by South American countries and South Africa. However, imports into Asia grew by 265 per cent over the same period. This has created opportunities for the Australian table grape industry, given that most Australian grape exports are to Asia because of relatively short freight times.

Share of world table grape imports, 2000 and 2012

Europe 48%North America 35%Asia 11%Other 7%

Europe 45%North America 23%Asia 19%Other 13%

2012Total: $7.6 billion (2012 US$)

2000Total: $3.7 billion (2012 US$)

Hong Kong has consistently been the largest export market for Australian table grapes. It increased its share from 24 per cent in 2000–01 to 35 per cent in 2013–14 in volume terms. Other major importers in 2013–14 were Indonesia (accounting for 14 per cent), Vietnam (13 per cent), Singapore (7 per cent), New Zealand (7 per cent) and the United Arab Emirates (5 per cent).

continued ...

90

Horticulture


Table grape exports continued

Volume of Australian table grape exports, 2000–01 to 2013–14

kt

Other

Vietnam

Indonesia

Hong Kong

20

40

60

80

100

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Fresh grape exports can be volatile from year to year, depending on the volume of production and export demand.

Australia’s export season is from March to June each year. Its main export competitor is Chile, another southern hemisphere producer and the world’s largest table grape exporter. Chile exports grapes for the first seven months of the year, with supply peaking in April. Peru and South Africa are also important competitors early in Australia’s exporting season.

Australia signed a free trade agreement with the Republic of Korea in April 2014. Once implemented, it will reduce the tariff on table grapes to 24 per cent from 45 per cent and then phase it out by 4.5 percentage points each year. This will make Australian exports more competitive with those of Chile, which recently gained tariff free access.

Chile and Peru both have free trade agreements with China that are gradually phasing out tariffs on various horticultural products. In the 2014 exporting season, Chilean and Peruvian grapes were subject to a tariff of 1.3 per cent and will enter China tariff free in 2015. In contrast, Australian table grapes face a 13 per cent tariff.

Japanese tariffs on fresh grapes vary according to the time of year; tariffs are 17 per cent during Australia’s exporting season. Chile and Peru also have economic partnership agreements with Japan, which came into force in 2007 and 2012, respectively. Under these agreements, tariffs on table grapes will be phased out in annual increments. Chile in particular has a significant tariff advantage over Australia, but this will begin to narrow once the Japan–Australia Economic Partnership Agreement, signed in July 2014, is implemented.

AgricultureLivestock


Beef and vealBeth Deards

• The weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 328 cents a kilogram.

• Cattle slaughter is forecast to decline in 2014–15 from a 35-year high in 2013–14.• Export demand for Australian beef and live cattle is forecast to remain strong.• Australia is likely to export live cattle to Cambodia for the first time in 2014–15.• In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports were worth $6.3 billion, a rise of

29 per cent from the previous year. Export volumes to the United States, China, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia grew strongly.

• Live feeder and slaughter cattle exports reached a record 996 462 head in 2013–14. Indonesia was the largest market, followed by Vietnam.

Cattle prices to rise in 2014–15 from 16-year lowThe Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2014–15 to 328 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), after falling by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 293 cents a kilogram. This largely reflects expected lower turn-off of cattle (particularly cows) for slaughter, assuming improved seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2014–15. If favourable seasonal conditions eventuate, producers will be encouraged to rebuild herds, increasing demand for restocker cattle. These factors, and continued high export demand for Australian beef and live cattle, are expected to lead to a higher average saleyard price in 2014–15.

If seasonal conditions fail to improve in the major cattle producing regions in the near future, the average saleyard price for 2014–15 as a whole would likely be markedly lower than the current forecast. Australia’s cattle industry is mostly pasture based and unfavourable seasonal conditions would result in a further weakening in carrying capacity, causing producers to continue liquidating their herds. The Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook for spring (September to November 2014), issued on 28 August 2014, does not indicate a strong tendency for either wetter or drier than normal conditions across most of Australia’s major cattle producing regions. However, conditions in New South Wales are likely to be drier than normal.

93

Beef and veal


Cattle and calf slaughter and weighted average saleyard price

Slaughter

millionhead

2014–15Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

100

200

300

400

500

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Cattle herd to declineThe Australian beef cattle herd is forecast to fall by 2 per cent over the 12 months to 30 June 2015 to 24.2 million head, reflecting relatively high cattle slaughter and strong demand for live exports. This decline is expected despite an assumed improvement in the calving rate, which is estimated to have fallen significantly in 2013–14. However, if seasonal conditions fail to improve in the short term, the calving rate will be lower and slaughter higher than currently assumed. This would result in the beef cattle herd falling below the current forecast.

Cattle slaughter to fall from 35-year highAustralian cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 9 million head. This follows a 12 per cent rise in slaughter in 2013–14 to a 35-year high of almost 9.5 million head driven by unfavourable seasonal conditions, particularly in Queensland and northern New South Wales. With seasonal conditions assumed to improve and live export demand forecast to remain strong, the supply of cattle for slaughter is expected to fall in the remainder of the financial year. Slaughter weights would rise with assumed favourable seasonal conditions and partially offset the effect of a lower slaughter number. Overall, Australian beef and veal production is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.4 million tonnes.

Strong demand for Australian beef and veal exportsAustralian beef and veal exports are forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 1.1 million tonnes (shipped weight). This reflects reduced supply of Australian beef and veal available for export, even though international demand (particularly from the United States) is expected to remain strong. Demand for Australian exports from China, the Republic of Korea and South-East Asia is expected to remain strong, but reduced supply will limit growth in exports to these markets.

In 2014–15 the value of Australian beef and veal exports is forecast to decline by 2 per cent to $6.1 billion, with higher beef export prices partially offsetting lower volumes exported. Forecast higher export prices reflect strong demand from major export markets and reduced supply from some of Australia’s major competitors, particularly the United States.

94

Beef and veal


In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports increased by 17 per cent to a record 1.2 million tonnes (shipped weight), with the value rising by 29 per cent to $6.3 billion. In 2013–14 strong growth was recorded in Australian beef and veal exports to the United States, China, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Exports also increased to Canada and the European Union.

United StatesAustralian beef and veal exports to the United States are forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 290 000 tonnes (shipped weight), driven by strong demand for Australian manufacturing beef. US beef production is forecast to fall in 2014–15, largely reflecting a continued decline in cow slaughter. This will reduce domestic supply of manufacturing beef and increase demand for imports. In 2013–14 US cow slaughter declined by 11 per cent to 5.9 million head, the lowest since 2006–07. As a result, Australian manufacturing beef exports to the United States rose by 26 per cent to 181 500 tonnes (68 per cent of total beef exports to the United States). Between the beginning of June 2014 and early September 2014, the export price of 90 per cent chemical lean manufacturing beef (90CL) increased by 42 per cent in Australian dollar terms.

Australian beef and veal export composition to the United States

kt

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Chilled and frozen cutsOther manufacturing85CL

90CL95CL

Ninety per cent chemical lean manufacturing beef, export price to United States

Ac/kg

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

5 Sep2014

25 Jul2014

30 May2014

28 Mar2014

31 Jan2014

29 Nov2013

27 Sep2013

26 Jul2013

95

Beef and veal


JapanAustralian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 265 000 tonnes (shipped weight). While competition from the United States is expected to lead to US higher value cuts continuing to displace Australian products, demand for Australian manufacturing beef is expected to remain strong. However, increased shipments of Australian manufacturing beef to the United States are expected to limit the supply of this beef to Japan.

ChinaAustralian beef and veal exports to China are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15 at around 160 000 tonnes (shipped weight), with growth to be constrained by reduced supply of Australian beef available for export. Demand for imported beef and veal in China is expected to increase in 2014–15, as growth in domestic consumption continues to exceed growth in production. China is expected to increase imports from other countries, such as Uruguay, but Australia is forecast to remain the largest supplier to China (with market share just below 50 per cent). China is also likely to import more beef and veal from Brazil in 2014–15. In July 2014 the Chinese Government lifted import restrictions on Brazilian beef imposed in December 2012 after a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy was detected in Brazil.

In 2014–15 chilled beef is expected to account for a greater proportion of Australian beef and veal exports to China. In September 2013 chilled beef exports to China were halted. This resulted in chilled beef accounting for only 2 per cent of Australian beef and veal exports to China in 2013–14, compared with 11 per cent in 2012–13. However, from August 2013 to mid 2014, the Australian Government Department of Agriculture worked with Chinese authorities to formalise an agreement on chilled beef exports. China has now approved 10 Australian establishments to commence chilled beef exports from 1 July 2014 on a trial basis.

Republic of KoreaAustralian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 158 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Korean domestic cattle slaughter and beef production is expected to decline as producers continue to exit the industry. Also, an increase in domestic calf prices since September 2013 will encourage remaining producers to consolidate their breeding herds. With declining domestic production, Korean demand for beef and veal imports is forecast to be strong. Australian beef is expected to remain competitive as a result of high prices for both domestically produced beef and imported US beef. Over the six months to June 2014, the landed price of US chilled and frozen beef averaged 16 per cent and 37 per cent higher than Australian beef, respectively.

96

Beef and veal


Landed price of frozen beef imports, Republic of Korea

US$/kg

1

2

3

4

5

6

7AustraliaUnited States

Jun2014

Aug2013

Oct2012

Dec2011

Feb2011

Russian FederationAustralia is not expected to export beef and veal to the Russian Federation in 2014–15. In August 2014 the President of the Russian Federation signed a Presidential Decree on the ‘Application of Certain Special Economic Measures in order to protect the National Security of the Russian Federation’. The decree imposed a one-year embargo on selected agricultural imports from countries that imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation for its actions in eastern Ukraine. Subject to the embargo are Australia, the United States, the European Union, Canada and Norway. In 2013–14 the value of Australian agricultural exports to the Russian Federation now covered by the embargo was $241.1 million; beef exports accounted for almost half at $115.4 million.

Value of Australian commodities covered by August 2014 embargo imposed by the Russian Federation ($ million)

Commodity Harmonized System Code 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

Beef 0201 and 0202 203.7 113.2 115.4

Poultry 0207 0.0 0.1 0.0

Seafood 03 codes 0.36 0.43 1.53

Milk and cream 0401 and 0402 1.3 1.3 3.0

Butter and other fats and

oils derived from milk 0405 10.6 22.0 96.7

Cheese and curd 0406 3.7 5.3 12.2

Vegetables 07 codes 0.0 0.1 0.0

Fruits 08 codes 5.0 6.3 12.2

Other 190190 and 210690 0.6 0.1 0.0

Total 225.3 148.8 241.1

Note: This table lists only those commodities Australia exported to the Russian Federation in 2011–12, 2012–13 or 2013–14 and that are now covered by the embargo.

97

Beef and veal


The Russian Federation is not a significant market for Australian beef and veal exports, so the embargo is expected to have a small impact. In 2012–13 and 2013–14 the Russian Federation accounted for only 2 per cent of Australian beef and veal exports. Further, Australia has not exported beef or veal to the Russian Federation since May 2014. The Russian Federation suspended imports of Australian chilled beef in March 2014 and frozen beef in April 2014 over alleged use of trenbolone acetate, a growth hormone banned in the federation. In 2014–15 the Russian Federation is expected to import more beef and veal from Brazil, Paraguay, Belarus and Uruguay. These countries supplied 85 per cent of the Russian Federation’s beef imports in 2013.

Market share of beef and veal imports (by quantity), Russian Federation, 2013

Brazil 47%

Paraguay 21%

Belarus 12%Uruguay 5%

Australia 4%

Other 11%

Live cattle exports to remain highAustralian feeder and slaughter cattle exports are forecast to remain high in 2014–15 at around one million head. Demand from Indonesia, the largest market, is expected to remain strong. Domestic beef prices are still significantly higher than the 76 000 rupiah reference price, averaging over 110 000 rupiah between July and mid August 2014. The Indonesian Government disbanded its cattle and beef import quota mechanism in September 2013 and adopted a reference price mechanism for imports aimed at stabilising beef prices. Under this mechanism, the Indonesian Government intends to issue import permits when the price for secondary cuts exceeds the reference price of 76 000 rupiah and to restrict imports when the price falls below that level.

Vietnam was Australia’s second largest market for feeder and slaughter cattle exports in 2013–14, and demand is forecast to remain steady as its domestic cattle herd continues to decline. In 2014–15 Australia is likely to export cattle to Cambodia for the first time, after the two countries finalised import protocols in August 2014. Exporters can now establish supply chains approved under the Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System.

In 2013–14 Australia exported 32 000 feeder and slaughter cattle to the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation has not included feeder and slaughter cattle in its embargo. However, the Australian Government Department of Agriculture will carefully consider all applications for export permits for live animals destined for the Russian Federation. Export permits may not be granted if there is reason to believe that the country will not permit the consignment to enter.

98

Beef and veal


Beef and veal outlookB f d l tl kBeefandvealoutlookit 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 f % changeunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

Cattle numbers a million 29.3 27.6 27.1 –1.8Cattle numbers a– beef million 26.5 24.7 24.2 –2.0 beef million 26.5 24.7 24.2 2.0Slaughterings ’000 8 457 9 473 9 000 –5 0Slaughterings 000 8 457 9 473 9 000 –5.0Production b kt 2 245 2 464 2 380 3 4Production b kt 2 245 2 464 2 380 –3.4E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)– to Japan kt 299 280 265 –5.4p ( pp g ) to Japan kt 299 280 265 5.4– to United States kt 207 266 290 9.0– to United States kt 207 266 290 9.0to China kt 92 160 160 0 0– to China kt 92 160 160 0.0t K R f kt 138 156 158 1 3– to Korea, Rep. of kt 138 156 158 1.3p

– total kt 1 014 1 184 1 130 –4.6 total– value A$m 4 871 6 265 6 148 –1.9– value A$m 4 871 6 265 6 148 1.9Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c ’000 513 996 1 000 0 4Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c ’000 513 996 1 000 0.4

l A$m 339 780 831 6 5– value A$m 339 780 831 6.5P iPrice– saleyard Ac/kg 297 293 328 11.9– saleyard Ac/kg 297 293 328 11.9US import d USc/kg 439 439 482 9 8– US import d USc/kg 439 439 482 9.8J i US /k 589 593 605 2 0– Japan import e USc/kg 589 593 605 2.0p p

a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes buffalo. d Cow 90CL US cif price. e Chilled grassfed fullset Japan C&F a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes buffalo. d Cow 90CL US cif price. e Chilled grassfed fullset Japan C&F price f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimateprice. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture Canberra; Meat & LivestockSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Meat & Livestock Australia


• Australian lamb and mutton prices are forecast to increase in 2014–15, with strong demand from major export markets expected to continue.

• Australian shorn wool production is forecast to decrease by around 4 per cent in 2014–15, reflecting a reduction in the national sheep flock.

• Australia exported a record 226 000 tonnes of lamb in 2013–14 as shipments increased year-on-year to China, the Middle East and the United States.

• Live sheep exports are forecast to increase by around 9 per cent in 2014–15 to around 2.2 million head.

• Australian live sheep exports to Bahrain resumed in April 2014, contributing to an 11 per cent year-on-year increase in total live sheep exports in the June quarter.

Favourable pasture conditions in sheep producing regions in southern Australia continued throughout winter, following considerable autumn rainfall. Reflecting this, a large number of new-season lambs became available for sale during late winter. In response to increased supply, saleyard prices fell considerably during August after the highest July average nominal price on record (557 cents a kilogram).

Lamb supply is expected to tighten toward the end of spring, with the total number of spring lambs sold in 2014–15 expected to fall year-on-year. The higher number of sheep slaughtered in the previous two seasons is estimated to have resulted in a smaller breeding flock.

Export demand for sheep meat is expected to be strong in 2014–15, following a record year for lamb exports and considerable growth in mutton exports in 2013–14. Strong export demand and tighter lamb supply is expected to place upward pressure on prices. The Australian weighted average saleyard price of lamb is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent in 2014–15 to around 510 cents a kilogram.

The weighted average saleyard price for sheep is forecast to increase by around 15 per cent in 2014–15 to 300 cents a kilogram. This follows a 40 per cent increase in 2013–14 resulting from strong demand for mutton in Asia. This demand absorbed increased supply caused by adverse seasonal conditions in many major producing regions. The forecast price increase in 2014–15 reflects an assumption that improved seasonal conditions will lead to lower production while export demand remains strong.

Sheep meat and woolRobert Leith

100

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep and lamb saleyard price and slaughter

Sheep slaughter

Lamb slaughter

millionhead

2014–15Ac/kg

Sheep saleyard price (right axis)Lamb saleyard price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

150

300

450

600

750

5

10

15

20

25

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Wool prices to rise in 2014–15The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) wool price is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 1120 cents a kilogram clean, following a 3 per cent increase in 2013–14. Wool production and supply are forecast to decline, but limited demand growth in key textile and apparel markets is expected to constrain upward pressure on prices. Assumed income growth in the United States is expected to support demand for wool apparel. Slowing income growth in China and delayed economic recovery in the European Union are expected to prevent significant growth in retail sales of wool apparel and textiles.

Shorn wool production and Eastern Market Indicator wool price

Shorn woolproduction

ktgreasy

2014–15Ac/kg

EMI (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

300

600

900

1200

1500

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

101

Sheep meat and wool


Fine wool margins at record lowsSheep grazing on drier pastures tend to produce finer fleece than sheep on wetter pastures. Drier seasonal conditions in 2012–13 and 2013–14 in many producing regions resulted in a greater share of fine wool produced than in previous years. As a share of total wool production, fine wool production (19.5 microns and less) increased from 35 per cent in 2010–11 to 46 per cent in 2013–14.

Wool production by micron category

kt24.6+

microns19.6–23.5microns

0.0–19.5microns

2010–11

2011–12

2012–13

2013–14

50

100

150

200

Fine wool attracts a higher price than medium and broad wool and is typically used in the production of higher-value textiles and apparel. However, increased supply in recent years has caused the price margin on fine wool to fall, relative to broader wool types. During the four weeks before the July 2014 auction recess, the price of 19 micron wool averaged just 6 cents a kilogram more than that of 23 micron wool. The margin peaked at around 560 cents a kilogram in 2010–11. The price of 19 micron wool averaged around 500 cents a kilogram more than that of 30 micron wool, down from the margin peak of around 1160 cents a kilogram in 2010–11.

Price margins for 19 micron wools

19 to 30 micron margin

Ac/kgclean

19 to 23 micron margin

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

05 Sep2014

27 Sep2013

28 Sep2012

30 Sep2011

24 Sep2010

102

Sheep meat and wool


Margins on fine wool relative to medium and crossbred wool are low by historical standards, but that trend is expected to reverse in the short term. The supply of drought-affected wool has been relatively high over the past few seasons, putting downward pressure on fine wool prices.

Furthermore, the poor quality of fine wool may have contributed to lower margins. Drought-affected wool is finer but often poorer in quality. Its fibre strength is weaker than that of wool produced in better seasonal conditions, limiting its use for textile processors. Such wool attracts a lower price than it otherwise would, despite its fibre diameter.

The proportion of fine wool produced is expected to fall in 2014–15 following more positive seasonal conditions during autumn and winter across the southern parts of the country. The decrease in the supply of fine wool relative to medium wool is expected to increase fine wool margins. The overall quality of fine wool is expected to improve, which will also place upward pressure on fine wool margins.

Sheep flock to declineThe Australian sheep flock is forecast to fall by around 1 per cent during 2014–15 to 71.4 million head. The national flock is estimated to have fallen by around 3.5 million head in 2013–14 to 72 million head, reflecting a year of high sheep turn-off on the back of dry conditions and strong demand for sheep meat. This fall in sheep numbers is expected to constrain production of sheep meat and wool in 2014–15.

The proportion of breeding ewes in the flock is forecast to increase slightly during 2014–15, reflecting the increase in lamb prices relative to wool prices in 2013–14. Such a price movement typically discourages the retention of wethers, as more producers look to increase returns by increasing lamb production.

Australian sheep flock as at 30 June

Wethers

Lambs

Ewes

millionhead

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Proportion ofewes (right axis)

%

20

40

60

80

100

120

15

30

45

60

75

90

103

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat production to fallLamb slaughter is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to 21 million head, reflecting a fall in the number of lambs born as a result of the reduction in the breeding flock over the previous two financial years. Lamb slaughter in 2013–14 was 21.9 million head, the largest annual lamb slaughter in more than 40 years. With a forecast fall in lamb slaughter in 2014–15, partially offset by an assumed increase in average carcass weights, lamb production is forecast to decrease by 4 per cent to around 457 000 tonnes.

Sheep slaughter is forecast to fall by 27 per cent in 2014–15 to 7.4 million head, reflecting an assumed improvement in seasonal conditions and a reduction in the supply of older and unproductive adult sheep. As a result, mutton production is also forecast to fall by 26 per cent to around 168 000 tonnes. Sheep slaughter increased considerably in 2012–13 and again in 2013–14, as a result of adverse seasonal conditions.

Shorn wool production to fallIn 2014–15 greasy shorn wool production is forecast to fall by around 4 per cent to 328 000 tonnes, which would make it the lowest production year on record. The reduction in the Australian sheep flock during 2013–14 is expected to lead to fewer sheep shorn during 2014–15. Growth in the lamb price relative to the wool price in late 2013–14 is expected to result in a reduction in the number of purebred merino wethers in the national flock. Producers are expected to opt for greater numbers of crossbred and specialty meat sheep for breeding. Any such reduction would be likely to cause the average quantity of wool cut per head to fall.

Lamb exports to fall as supply tightensFollowing a record volume exported in 2013–14, lamb exports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to around 216 000 tonnes. The forecast decline in exports represents a decrease in lamb supply, although strong demand from major export destinations is expected to continue. Reflecting this, the value of lamb exports is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $1.5 billion. In 2013–14 the Middle East, China and the United States accounted for almost two-thirds of Australian lamb exports. Their share is forecast to grow in 2014–15.

Australian lamb exports

Other

European Union

United States

Asia (excluding China)

China

Middle East

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

50

100

150

200

250

104

Sheep meat and wool


Middle EastThe Middle East grew significantly as an export market for Australian lamb in the nine years to 2013–14. Exports to the Middle East are expected to increase by around 1 per cent in 2014–15, as Australian lamb continues to grow in popularity relative to its main African competitors. In July 2014 Australia exported around 6300 tonnes of lamb to the region, the largest monthly volume on record.

In 2013–14 the five major Middle Eastern markets for lamb exports were Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Since 2005–06 growth in lamb exports to the region has been largely driven by the emergence of Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain as major destinations and by continued export growth in the largest established market, the United Arab Emirates.

Bahrain became a significant market for Australian lamb carcasses in the months immediately following the Australian industry’s voluntary suspension of live sheep exports to Bahrain in August 2012. It has remained a major market for lamb since live sheep exports resumed in April 2014. Growth in lamb exports to Bahrain also coincided with a steep decline in mutton exports because of a change in consumer preference.

Australian lamb exports to the Middle East

kt

Other Middle East

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jordan

United Arab Emirates

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

ChinaLamb exports to China are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to around 42 500 tonnes. Expansion of the foodservice and hospitality industries has contributed to growth in Chinese lamb demand. This is reflected in increased lamb breast and flap exports over time. Traditionally lower value exports, these cuts are popular in Chinese hotpot dishes. Meat & Livestock Australia report that around 70 per cent of Australian lamb breast and flap exports are shipped to China, a share that has grown significantly since 2007. The average unit value of lamb exported to China doubled between 2007–08 and 2013–14, largely driven by the increased demand for these cuts.

105

Sheep meat and wool


United StatesThe United States is the highest-value export market for Australian lamb, although per-person consumption is relatively low. Imports from Australia and New Zealand account for around half of US lamb supply.

Lamb exports to the United States are forecast to increase by around 2 per cent to 43 000 tonnes, following a 13 per cent increase in 2013–14. This reflects greater competitiveness of lamb relative to alternative meats following increases in beef and pork prices in the United States over the past year.

Mutton exports to fallAlmost all Australian mutton is exported, so shipment volumes are highly sensitive to domestic supply conditions. This was highlighted in recent years, when widespread dry seasonal conditions resulted in the number of sheep slaughtered increasing rapidly. Mutton exports doubled between 2011–12 and 2013–14.

Lower mutton production in 2014–15 is forecast to lead to a 28 per cent decline in exports, to 130 000 tonnes.

Australian mutton exports

Other

United StatesAsia (excluding China)ChinaMiddle East

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

50

100

150

200

Reopening of Bahrain to increase live sheep exportsLive sheep exports are forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.2 million head, reflecting the reopening of Bahrain as an export market. Australian live sheep exports to Bahrain resumed in April 2014, after the Australian and Bahraini governments agreed on a new health protocol. In 2014–15 Australia is expected to export 250 000 to 350 000 head of sheep to Bahrain. However, growth in total live sheep exports will be constrained by the forecast decline in the national sheep flock and strong competition from the Australian meat processing industry.

Live sheep exports increased by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to around 2 million head. The number of sheep exported to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Israel increased, while exports to Jordan and Qatar fell. Australia exported around 100 000 head of sheep to Bahrain in the June quarter 2014, making it the third-largest export destination for that period.

106

Sheep meat and wool


Wool exports to fallAustralian wool exports fell by 2 per cent in 2013–14 and are forecast to fall by around 5 per cent in 2014–15 to 405 000 tonnes, reflecting the forecast decrease in production. The value of Australian wool exports is forecast to fall by around 1 per cent to $2.9 billion.

China is expected to import around 75 per cent of Australian wool exports, consistent with the average over the past six years. China is home to the world’s largest wool processing industry, and is a major consumer and exporter of woollen apparel and textiles. The other major export destinations for Australian wool are India (6 per cent of wool exports in 2013–14), Italy (4 per cent) and the Czech Republic (3 per cent).

The United States is the largest export destination for Chinese apparel, ahead of Japan and Hong Kong. In 2013 Chinese exports of apparel and clothing accessories to the United States were valued at around US$28.2 billion. US imports of wool apparel (from all destinations) increased by 8 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of 2014.

The United States imports most woollen apparel during August to October, the lead-up to the Northern Hemisphere winter. The US 2014 import volumes during this period will determine whether US demand increased and whether this will flow through to stronger demand for Australian wool from processing countries in 2014–15.

Reflecting declining wool production and a shift in world demand toward apparel made from synthetic fibres, Australian wool exports have declined over the past 10 years. Growth in the export of wool on skins has partially offset reductions in the export of greasy and semi-processed wool. Australia’s major export destinations for sheepskins and lambskins are China (around 85 per cent in value terms), the Russian Federation and Turkey. The supply of sheepskins for export in 2014–15 is forecast to fall, reflecting fewer sheep and lambs slaughtered.

Australian wool exports, by type

Skins

Semi-processed

Greasy

ktgreasy

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Share of skins (right axis)

5

%

10

15

20

25

30

100

200

300

400

500

600

107

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat and wool outlookO l k f h d lOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f g

Sheep numbers a million 75 5 72 0 71 4 – 0 8Sheep numbers a million 75.5 72.0 71.4 – 0.8Sheep shorn million 81 9 77 0 74 3 3 5Sheep shorn million 81.9 77.0 74.3 – 3.5Sl h iSlaughterings Lambs ’000 21 122 21 899 21 000 – 4.1

g gLambs 000 21 122 21 899 21 000 4.1Sheep ’000 8 192 10 066 7 400 – 26.5Sheep 000 8 192 10 066 7 400 – 26.5Production bL b k 457 474 457 3 6Production bLamb kt 457 474 457 – 3.6Mutton kt 183 228 168 – 26.3Mutton Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 361 341 328 – 3 8Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 361 341 328 – 3.8other kt 75 81 73 9 9– other c kt 75 81 73 – 9.9t t l kt 435 422 401 5 0– total kt 435 422 401 – 5.0

EExportsLamb kt swt 201 226 216 – 4.4p

Lamb kt swt 201 226 216 4.4Mutton kt swt 144 181 130 – 28 2Mutton kt swt 144 181 130 – 28.2Total sheep meat kt swt 344 408 346 15 2Total sheep meat kt swt 344 408 346 – 15.2

l $ 1 564 2 219 2 100 5 4– value $m 1 564 2 219 2 100 – 5.4Live sheep ’000 2 000 2 020 2 200 8.9Live sheep – value $m 194 185 230 24.3 value $m 194 185 230 24.3WoolWoolvolume (gr equiv ) kt 437 428 405 5 4– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 437 428 405 – 5.4t Chi kt 341 324 312 3 7– to China kt 341 324 312 – 3.7

$– value d $m 2 869 2 877 2 855 – 0.8 value d $PricesLambs e Ac/kg 386 476 510 7 1PricesLambs e Ac/kg 386 476 510 7.1Sheep Ac/kg 187 262 300 14 5Sheep e Ac/kg 187 262 300 14.5Eastern Market Indicator g Ac/kg 1 035 1 071 1 120 4.6Eastern Market Indicator g / ga At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool.a At 30 June. b Carcass weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. d Balance of payments basis e Saleyard prices f ABARES forecast g Clean equivalent s ABARESd Balance of payments basis. e Saleyard prices. f ABARES forecast. g Clean equivalent. s ABARES ti testimate.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of Agriculture, CanberraAgriculture, Canberra


Pig meatRobert Leith

• Pig prices are forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2014–15, reflecting expected higher domestic production.

• Exports are forecast to increase in 2014–15 but will continue to represent only a small share of total industry output.

• Pig meat imports fell by 11 per cent in 2013–14, as the weaker Australian dollar made imported pig meat more expensive.

• Pig meat exports to New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Hong Kong each increased by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent in 2013–14.

• In 2013–14 the total value of Australian pig meat exports increased by 5 per cent to $85 million.

The weighted average over-the-hooks price of pigs is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent in 2014–15 to 304 cents a kilogram. Domestic production is forecast to increase, supported by lower feed grain prices. Imports are also expected to rise because lower forecast corn and soybean prices are expected to encourage increased pig meat production in the Northern Hemisphere. This is likely to help North American producers overcome the effects of a virus outbreak in 2013–14 that resulted in high piglet mortality.

In 2013–14 the Australian pig price increased by 7 per cent to 306 cents a kilogram, reflecting a reduction in total pig meat supply. Domestic processor demand for locally produced pig meat increased as imports declined, putting upward pressure on domestic prices.

109

Pig meat


Australian pig meat production and over-the-hooks price

Production

kt 2014–15Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

Production to increaseAustralian pig meat production increased for a fifth consecutive year in 2013–14, rising by 1 per cent to around 360 000 tonnes. In 2014–15 pig meat production is forecast to increase by a further 1 per cent to 364 000 tonnes. The forecast reduction in feed barley and wheat prices is expected to result in lower input costs, encouraging producers to increase production.

Pig-to-feed price ratios are indicators of Australian pig producer input cost margins. In 2013–14 the pig-to-barley ratio increased by 10 per cent and the pig-to-wheat ratio by 6 per cent. Both ratios are expected to increase again in 2014–15.

Pig-to-feed price ratio

ratio

Pig-to-wheatPig-to-barley

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jul2014

Nov2012

Mar2011

Jul2009

Nov2007

Mar2006

110

Pig meat


Imports to increaseAustralia allows imports of deboned pig meat from selected countries. It must be heat treated before it is sold, so it can only be sold as manufactured product. Therefore, only domestically produced pig meat can be sold as fresh pork in Australia.

Pig meat imports fell by 11 per cent in 2013–14; the depreciation in the Australian dollar against the currencies of pig meat exporting countries made imports more expensive. In 2014–15 imports are forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 142 000 tonnes. Lower corn and soybean prices are expected to result in increased competition from exporting countries in the Australian pig meat market.

Australia sources most pig meat imports from North America. Over the five years to 2013–14, Canada and the United States accounted for around 60 per cent of Australia’s pig meat imports. Access to cheaper feed grains, notably corn, allows these countries to be highly price-competitive pig meat producers. Corn prices fell significantly in 2013–14 and, in August 2014, were the lowest in around four years.

Australian pig meat imports

Other

Netherlands Denmark

Canada United States

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

In the first half of 2014, a porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) outbreak in North America resulted in many piglet deaths (particularly in the United States). This caused pig meat supply to fall and prices to increase. Reflecting this, US pig prices increased by around 60 per cent between January and July 2014. Instances of PEDV pig deaths are expected to drop considerably in 2014–15.

Exports to increaseIn 2013–14 Australian pig meat exports increased by 2 per cent to 27 000 tonnes, as the depreciation of the Australian dollar made Australian pig meat more price competitive relative to Northern Hemisphere pig meat. Shipments to Singapore were relatively unchanged at 9000 tonnes, but exports to New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Hong Kong all increased by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent. The total value of Australian pig meat exports increased by 4 per cent to $85 million.

Australian exports of pig meat are forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to around 28 000 tonnes. The value of exports is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $87 million.

111

Pig meat


Australian pig meat exports

Other

Hong KongASEAN (excluding Singapore)

Papua New GuineaNew ZealandSingapore

kt

f ABARES forecast.

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

10

20

30

40

50

Pig meat outlook

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f % change

Over the hooks price a Ac/kg 285 306 304 – 0 7Over‐the‐hooks price a Ac/kg 285 306 304 – 0.7Sl ht i ’000 4 745 4 778 4 800 0 5Slaughterings ’000 4 745 4 778 4 800 0.5g gProduction kt 356 360 364 1.1Production kt 356 360 364 1.1Import volume b kt 152 136 142 4 4Import volume b kt 152 136 142 4.4E t l b kt 26 27 28 3 7Export volume bc kt 26 27 28 3.7Export value $m 81 85 87 2.4p $a Dressed weight. b Shipped weight. c Excludes preserved pig meat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a Dressed weight. b Shipped weight. c Excludes preserved pig meat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Chicken meatCaitlin Murray and Beth Deards

• Australian chicken meat production is forecast to rise in 2014–15 to a record 1.13 million tonnes.

• Domestic chicken meat consumption is forecast to increase, reflecting relatively favourable prices for chicken meat compared with alternative meats.

• Exports of Australian chicken meat are forecast to rise in 2014–15 in response to strong demand from the Asia–Pacific region.

• In 2013–14 Australian chicken meat exports were worth $48 million, a rise of 22 per cent on the previous year.

• Exports increased to Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands and Laos.

Production to reach record highAustralian chicken meat production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 1.13 million tonnes, supported by lower feed grain prices and strong domestic demand. Higher chicken meat production reflects a 2 per cent increase in the number of birds slaughtered and a marginal rise in the average carcass weight.

Average carcass weight, chicken

kg/bird

f ABARES forecast.

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2014–15f

2010–11

2000–01

1990–91

1980–81

1970–71

113

Chicken meat


The average carcass weight has been relatively steady in recent years, averaging 1.9 kilograms over the four years to 2013–14. This is around 16 per cent higher than average carcass weights in the early 2000s and 50 per cent higher than in the early 1970s, reflecting strong productivity growth in the Australian chicken meat industry. Through selective breeding techniques, chickens used for meat production can now reach their ideal slaughter weight in 35 days using 3.4 kilograms of feed, compared with 64 days and 4.7 kilograms of feed in the 1970s.

Consumption to riseAustralian chicken meat consumption is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 45.6 kilograms per person. Chicken meat is the most consumed meat in Australia. Per person consumption grew on average by 3 per cent over the decade to 2013–14, supported by the retail price disparity between chicken and competing meats. This trend is expected to continue in 2014–15 as chicken meat prices, despite being forecast to increase, remain relatively low compared with beef and sheep meat prices (also forecast to rise). In 2014–15 per person chicken meat consumption is forecast to remain significantly higher than for beef and veal (30.3 kilograms), sheep meat (9.0 kilograms) and pig meat (25.9 kilograms).

Australian consumer price index, meats

index

Lamb and goatBeef and veal PorkChicken meat

50

100

150

200

250

2013–14

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

Strong demand for exportsAustralian chicken meat exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to a record 39 000 tonnes (shipped weight) with a value of $54 million, in response to strong demand from the Asia–Pacific region. Most Australian chicken meat is consumed domestically but exports have increased because of higher production volumes. Exports more than doubled over the decade to 2013–14. About 95 per cent of chicken meat exports are frozen cuts and offal (such as feet, kidneys and livers), which attract a higher price in export markets than domestically. Frozen whole chickens make up most of the remaining 5 per cent of exports.

114

Chicken meat


In 2013–14 Australian chicken meat exports rose by 21 per cent to 35 400 tonnes (shipped weight) with a value of $48 million. Exports increased to Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands and Laos but decreased to Hong Kong and South Africa.

Australian chicken meat exports, by destination

kt

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014–15f

2012–13

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

OtherSouth AfricaHong Kong

Philippines Papua New Guinea

Chicken meat outlook

unit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % changeunit 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f g

Production a kt 1 046 1 084 1 130 4 2Production a kt 1 046 1 084 1 130 4.2E t l b kt 29 3 35 4 39 0 10 2Export volume b kt 29.3 35.4 39.0 10.2Export value $m 39.5 48.0 54.2 12.9Export value $m 39.5 48.0 54.2 12.9a Carcass weight. b Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a Carcass weight. b Shipped weight. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


• World dairy product prices are forecast to fall in 2014–15 in response to increased milk supplies from key exporting countries.

• Increases in world dairy product imports are expected in 2014–15, but growth is expected to be slower than in 2013–14.

• Dairy product exports from some major exporters are expected to be diverted in the short term to South-East Asia and the Middle East, following the Russian Federation’s decision to suspend imports for one year, starting August 2014.

• Australian milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2014–15 as a result of higher milk yields.

World dairy prices to fall in 2014–15World dairy product prices have continued to decline since January 2014 as a result of increased milk supplies from the main exporting countries. They are forecast to average lower in 2014–15 because supply of dairy products is expected to exceed demand.

In 2014–15 world dairy product prices, on year-average terms, are forecast to fall by between 11 per cent and 28 per cent. World prices for whole milk powder and skim milk powder are forecast to fall by 28 per cent and 25 per cent to average US$3500 and US$3400 a tonne, respectively. Butter prices are forecast to fall by 24 per cent to average US$3400 a tonne and cheese prices by 11 per cent to average US$4300 a tonne.

DairyOwen McCarthy and Caitlin Murray

116

Dairy


World dairy prices

US$/t

CheeseWhole milk powderSkim milk powderButter

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jul2014

Jul2012

Jul2010

Jul2008

Jul2006

Global milk supplies to remain strongIn 2014–15 milk production in the major dairy producing and exporting countries is expected to increase but at a slower rate than in 2013–14. Increased use of feed grains, in response to lower feed grain prices, is expected to result in improved milk yields.

In August 2014 the President of the Russian Federation imposed a one-year embargo on selected agricultural imports from countries that have imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation for its actions in eastern Ukraine. Subject to the embargo are Australia, the United States, the European Union, Canada and Norway. Cheese, butter and milk powders are included in the products under embargo.

Major exporters the European Union, the United States and Australia are expected to divert dairy product exports away from the Russian Federation in the short term, particularly to South-East Asia and the Middle East.

New Zealand, Argentina and Belarus are expected to increase dairy product exports to the Russian Federation in the short term, partially replacing imports from the countries under embargo. As a result, they will temporarily vacate markets in the Middle East, North Africa and South-East Asia. The European Union, the United States and Australia are expected to take advantage of these market opportunities.

In value terms, the Russian Federation imported more than 40 per cent of its dairy products from the European Union in 2013. But for the European Union this represented only around 14 per cent of its dairy exports. The Russian Federation imported less than 1 per cent of its dairy products from the United States, Australia, Norway and Canada in 2013. For each of these countries the Russian Federation represented less than 5 per cent of their dairy exports in the same period.

117

Dairy


European UnionMilk production in the European Union is forecast to increase slightly in the 2014–15 marketing year (April to March). Falling farmgate prices are expected to result in a slight decline in the dairy herd. However, the effect on milk production is expected to be offset by declining feed costs. These are expected to support improvement in the milk yield per cow.

The EU milk production quota will expire on 1 April 2015. The milk quota was increased by 1 per cent over five consecutive years, from 1 April 2009. It was not increased for the 2014–15 marketing year. As a result some member states, particularly those that exceeded the 2013–14 quota (such as Germany and Ireland), are expected to do so again in 2014–15.

Total EU cheese exports fell 3 per cent year-on-year in the first five months of 2014, largely because shipments to the Russian Federation declined by 11 per cent. EU cheese exports to the Russian Federation account for around 30 per cent of total EU cheese exports, by volume. Russian cheese imports have been slowing since early 2014 because of a depreciation in the Russian rouble against major world currencies. Import restrictions on some dairy suppliers in Ukraine, Germany and the Netherlands because of food safety concerns have also contributed.

United StatesMilk production in the United States is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2014 to 93.5 million tonnes, reflecting dairy herd expansion and improvements in milk yields. This is a result of falling feed prices and expected continuation of favourable margins. In 2015 milk production is forecast to increase a further 2 per cent to 95.4 million tonnes.

The monthly average US spot price of butter increased 27 per cent between January and June 2014. This was a result of tightening butter supplies in the domestic market in the first half of 2014. Large volumes of butter exports, particularly to North Africa and the Middle East, led to a rapid decline in US commercial stocks of butter. US butter exports are expected to decline in the remainder of 2014 in response to rising domestic prices and falling world prices.

US butter spot price, monthly average

US$/lb

20142013

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

118

Dairy


New ZealandDespite expected lower farmgate prices in 2014–15, as a result of falling world dairy product prices, milk production in New Zealand is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2014–15 (June to May), following an increase of 9 per cent in 2013–14. Favourable seasonal conditions in the South Island, and lower feed prices, are expected to result in a moderate increase in the dairy herd and the milk yield per cow.

In 2014 the number of dairy cows in New Zealand is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent. Most of this increase is expected to be concentrated in the South Island, reflecting continuation of a shift in land use toward dairy farming. In contrast, dairy cow numbers are forecast to fall slightly in the North Island over the same period because of dry seasonal conditions in the northern part of the North Island.

New Zealand dairy cows

South Island

North Island

millionhead

2014f20122010200820062004

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

f ABARES forecast.

Growth in world import demand slowsImport demand for dairy products is expected to continue to expand in 2014–15 but at a slower rate than in 2013–14, particularly from the two largest dairy product importers (China and the Russian Federation). Strong growth in import demand is still expected in the developing economies of the Middle East, North Africa and South-East Asia.

ChinaChina’s demand for dairy imports is expected to increase in 2014 as strong growth in consumer demand continues. However, the increase in imports is expected to be less than in 2013 because of higher domestic milk production and increased dairy product stocks. China accumulated significant commercial stocks during the first half of 2014. As a result, import demand is expected to moderate during the second half of 2014 as current inventories are run down. In the six months to June 2014, China’s imports of whole milk powder (530 000 tonnes) and skim milk powder (151 000 tonnes) were 73 per cent and 83 per cent higher, year-on-year, respectively.

Domestic milk production is forecast to increase in 2014 because of improvements in milk yields. However, strict health regulations surrounding milk production continue to force small producers to exit the market. This is expected to moderate the overall increase in domestic milk production.

119

Dairy


Russian FederationMilk production in the Russian Federation is forecast to decline in 2014 by around 2 per cent, following a 4 per cent decline in 2013. This reflects further reductions in the Russian dairy herd. Additionally, most cattle (around 60 per cent) are on small-scale farms, which have less potential to expand production.

The Russian Federation is expected to increase imports in 2014 to meet growing domestic demand. This increase is expected to be less than in 2013, largely because of its import embargo on dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and Norway imposed in August 2014.

As a result, the Russian Federation is expected to increase imports from other large dairy product suppliers, particularly New Zealand and Argentina. It is also expected to increase imports from Belarus, which supplied almost 40 per cent of Russian dairy product imports in 2013.

Russian dairy product imports (US$4.2 billion), by supplier, 2013

European Union 42%

Belarus 39%

Ukraine 9%New Zealand 3%

Argentina 3%

Australia 1%

Other 4%

ASEANDecreasing world prices during the first half of 2014 have led to developing economies, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, increasing imports. In the second half of 2014 import demand for dairy products, particularly milk powders, is expected to increase—reflecting income growth in ASEAN member states and falling world dairy product prices. Indonesia, the largest importer of milk powders in the region, is forecast to import around 290 000 tonnes of skim milk powder in 2014 compared with 275 000 tonnes in 2013.

Middle East and North AfricaDairy imports in the Middle East and North Africa are expected to increase in 2014 as a result of falling world prices and increasing domestic demand. Algeria, the largest importer in the region, increased imports of milk powders from the European Union by around 150 per cent from January to April 2014, year-on-year. Algeria imported significantly less milk powder in 2013 because of high world prices.

120

Dairy


Algerian milk powder imports

kt

2014f20122010200820062004

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Australian dairy industryThe Australian farmgate milk price is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent in 2014–15 to average around 45 cents a litre, reflecting mainly lower world dairy product prices. An assumed marginal depreciation of the Australian dollar will partially offset this.

Assuming average seasonal conditions, Australian milk production is forecast to increase slightly to 9.3 billion litres in 2014–15 in response to a small increase in the milk yield per cow. The increase in milk production is expected to be concentrated in southern Australia because of lower feed prices in these regions and favourable pasture growth. The national dairy cow herd is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2014–15 at 1.7 million head.

Exports to Russian FederationIn 2013–14 Australia exported $112 million of dairy products to the Russian Federation. Butter was the main dairy product exported ($97 million), followed by cheese ($12 million) and milk powders ($3 million). The Russian Federation accounted for only 4 per cent of total Australian dairy exports by value but it was an important market for Australian butter, accounting for around 40 per cent of Australian butter exports by value in 2013–14.

Australian butter exports to the Russian Federation averaged around $11 million (4000 tonnes) in the 10 years to 2012–13. In 2013–14 Australian butter exports to that country more than quadrupled to $97 million (19 000 tonnes). This increase was largely the result of declining import demand from the Russian Federation for New Zealand butter. In the first half of 2013–14 the Russian Federation temporarily suspended dairy product imports from New Zealand following safety concerns.

Butter is produced in a joint process where either skim milk powder or casein is also produced. Australian butter production is forecast to decline in 2014–15 in response to the Russian import embargo as dairy processors increasingly divert milk to other production lines, including cheese and whole milk powder. As a result, skim milk powder and casein production are also forecast to decline in 2014–15.

121

Dairy


Australian butter exports, by destination

Other

ChinaMiddle East and North AfricaASEANRussian Federation

2014–15A$m

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

50

100

150

200

250

300

Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to decline by 18 per cent in 2014–15 to $2.2 billion, mainly reflecting the effect of forecast lower average dairy product prices on world markets.

Australian dairy cattle exports to China increased by 33 per cent to 79 000 head in 2013–14 in response to China’s desire to expand its dairy herd and increase domestic milk production. China was by far the largest destination for Australian dairy cattle, accounting for 85 per cent of the total number exported. Pakistan, the Russian Federation, Malaysia and Indonesia were other destinations for dairy cattle exports. Australian dairy cattle exports to the Russian Federation are excluded from its import embargo.

Dairy outlookD i tl kDairyoutlooki 20 2 3 20 3 20 f % h

Dairyoutlookunit 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f % change

AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 688 1 700 1 703 0 2AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 688 1 700 1 703 0.2Milk yields L/cow 5 450 5 435 5 455 0 4Milk yields L/cow 5 450 5 435 5 455 0.4P d tiProductionTotal milk ML 9 201 9 239 9 290 0.6Total milk ML 9 201 9 239 9 290 0.6– market sales ML 2 452 2 469 2 515 1.9 market sales ML 2 452 2 469 2 515 1.9– manufacturing ML 6 749 6 770 6 775 0 1– manufacturing ML 6 749 6 770 6 775 0.1Butter b kt 118 116 110 5 2Butter b kt 118 116 110 –5.2Ch kt 338 312 310 0 6Cheese kt 338 312 310 –0.6Whole milk powder kt 109 126 130 3.2Whole milk powder kt 109 126 130 3.2Skim milk powder kt 224 211 200 –5.2Skim milk powder kt 224 211 200 –5.2Farmgate milk price Ac/L 40 50 45 –10 0Farmgate milk price Ac/L 40 50 45 –10.0Value of exports A$m 2 232 2 725 2 230 18 2Value of exports A$m 2 232 2 725 2 230 –18.2W ld iWorld pricesButter US$/t 3 727 4 498 3 400 –24.4

pButter US$/t 3 727 4 498 3 400 24.4Cheese US$/t 4 150 4 817 4 300 –10.7Cheese US$/t 4 150 4 817 4 300 –10.7Skim milk powder US$/t 3 731 4 513 3 400 –24 7Skim milk powder US$/t 3 731 4 513 3 400 –24.7Wh l ilk d US$/t 3 831 4 833 3 500 27 6Whole milk powder US$/t 3 831 4 833 3 500 –27.6a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.butterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy AustraliaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia


Trends in the size of Australian farmsTom Jackson and Peter Martin

This chapter is adapted from a speech by Karen Schneider, Executive Director, ABARES, at the Australian Farm Institute’s Funding Agriculture’s Future conference, Canberra, 3–4 June 2014.

The size of Australian farms has increased over time as farmers have sought to increase incomes despite a continual decline in their terms of trade. However, expanding the size of the farm is no guarantee of expanding profits. It involves taking, at times, risky investment decisions that are not always successful.

This chapter examines trends in the size of Australian farms, explains the key factors underpinning the increase in farm size and considers industry-level implications. It draws on data from the ABARES annual Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey of approximately 1500 broadacre farms. Broadacre farms are those that operate grain, sheep or beef cattle enterprises, or a mixture of these. They account for approximately 90 per cent of all agricultural land used in Australia. The analysis also draws on data from ABARES annual surveys of around 300 dairy farms and 300 vegetable farms. The sample of farms included in each of these surveys is chosen so that it represents the population of farms in each industry, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Agricultural Census.

Trends in farm sizeThe simplest measure of farm size is the physical area of land operated. The average area of land operated by Australian broadacre farms has increased over the survey period of 1977–78 to 2012–13 (Figure 1). Farmers expanded their land area rapidly in some periods, such as the early 1980s and early 2000s, but expanded more slowly in other periods, including the latter half of the 2000s. However, physical area operated does not definitively measure the size of farm businesses; many feedlots and vegetable farms operate small areas but are nonetheless large businesses.

Total output, measured by whole farm receipts, is a more comprehensive measure of farm size. This chapter uses this measure because it captures all the ways farmers can grow their businesses. These include increasing physical area operated, intensifying production systems—or increasing inputs other than land area—and changing the enterprise mix to produce higher-valued outputs.

123

Trends in the size of Australian farms


FIGURE 1 Average area operated by Australian broadacre farms, 1977–78 to 2012–13

ha

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2012–13p

2008–09

2004–05

2000–01

1996–97

1992–93

1988–89

1984–85

1980–81

Figure 2 shows that the economic size of Australian broadacre farms has trended up over the survey period. Although variation in seasonal conditions and prices makes this measure more volatile than changes in physical area operated, it shows that the economic size of farm businesses has increased substantially over time (in real terms) and at a greater rate than the average area operated. Between 1977–78 and 2012–13, the average area operated per broadacre farm increased by an average of 0.9 per cent a year, while average whole farm receipts increased by 1.2 per cent a year.

FIGURE 2 Average whole farm receipts of broadacre farms, 1977–78 to 2012–13

$’000

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Note: Data in real terms with base year 2012–13.Source: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey

2012–13p

2008–09

2004–05

2000–01

1996–97

1992–93

1988–89

1984–85

1980–81

100

200

300

400

500

124



Comparing figures 1 and 2 shows that, in addition to increasing the area operated, intensification and switching to higher-valued outputs have been significant sources of growth in whole farm receipts. This is particularly so in the second half of the survey period, when the increase in whole farm receipts was substantially greater than the increase in average area operated.

Intensification of production has also characterised growth in the dairy industry. Since the early 1990s, dairy farmers have increased average area operated and increased stocking rates and milk production per cow. Together these changes have increased the quantity of milk produced per farm substantially—more so than by increasing farm area alone (Figure 3).

FIGURE 3 Dairy farm average area operated, stocking rate and farm output, 1993–94 to 2012–13

index1994–95

=100

p ABARES preliminary estimate.Source: Australian Dairy Industry Survey

Milk productionper farmDairy cows milkedper farmArea operatedper farm

50

100

150

200

250

2012–13p

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

Why the economic size of farms is increasingThe trend toward larger economic size of farms in Australia primarily reflects the strong positive relationship between farm size and profitability. In the broadacre sector this relationship is highly consistent, with profitability increasing across the range of farm sizes (Figure 4). Profitability is measured as the rate of return on total capital: operating profit before interest and tax, divided by the value of land, livestock, machinery and other assets used by the farm.

The positive relationship between farm size and profitability also holds for individual industries within the broadacre sector and for the dairy and vegetable industries (Figure 5). Examples of highly profitable (and unprofitable) farms can be found among any group of similar-size farms. However, farms earning higher rates of return tend to be larger than less profitable ones.

125



FIGURE 4 Rate of return on total capital by farm size, broadacre farms, 2010–11 to 2012–13

%

Source: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

>$2m

$1.5m to $2m

$1m to$1.5m

$800k to $1m

$600k to$800k

$450k to $600k

$300k to$450k

$200k to$300k

$100k to$200k

<$100k

Whole farm receipts

Figure 5 also suggests that the capacity of farmers to realise higher profits by expanding differs between agricultural industries. For example, beef farms appear to gain relatively little from increasing beyond a medium size, while the performance of grains and vegetable farms increases consistently with farm size. In part, this result reflects poor conditions in the beef industry over the last three years of the survey period. However, it may also reflect a lower capacity of beef farms (compared with other industry producers) to use different production systems as size increases.

FIGURE 5 Rate of return by farm size, by industry, 2009–10 to 2012–13

BeefGrains

–4–3–2–10

Rat

e of

ret

urn

12345678

VegetablesDairy

>$2m$1m to$2m

$450k to $1m

$200k to$450k

<$200k

Sources: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey; Australian Dairy Industry Survey; Australian Vegetable Industry Survey

Whole farm receipts

126



Why larger farms are more profitableIt is difficult to generalise about the cause of differences in economic performance between farms. Research has identified various characteristics of high-performing farms such as higher than average yields and lower than average per-unit overhead costs, but these are outcomes of better performance rather than the underlying cause. Some researchers have concluded that variation in farm performance is largely the result of unique, farm-specific factors and that management skill is particularly important (Kingwell et al. 2013; Makeham & Malcolm 1993).

This research suggests that larger farms perform relatively well on average because they are more likely to be better managed. For a farm to grow large, it must be managed well enough to generate sufficient profits for the owner to out-bid competing farmers for additional land and other resources. Existing large farms must be managed well enough to remain large over time, which is not an easy task given the complexity of running a large farm and significant volatility in seasonal conditions and prices.

ABARES research indicates that, in addition to management practices, another possible reason for the positive relationship between farm size and profitability is that larger farms tend to have greater access to superior technologies (Sheng et al. 2011). In the grains industry, this is reflected in larger farms having higher total factor productivity than smaller farms (Figure 6). This means that larger farms tend to produce more output relative to their total input use. In turn, this means they are generally more profitable; for a given set of input and output prices, larger farms have a higher ratio of revenue to costs than smaller farms.

FIGURE 6 Average annual productivity of grain farms, by size, 1977–78 to 2006–07

%

Ann

ual p

rodu

ctiv

ity

grow

th ra

te

Small Medium Large


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Farm size category

Some commentators have suggested that larger farms perform better mainly because of increasing returns to scale. That is, they are more profitable because they can spread their fixed costs over a larger volume of output. However, ABARES has found this is not always the case. Instead, larger farms can often access different technologies, which allow them to use lower cost production systems than smaller farms.

127



Larger farms are better placed to access leading technologies for several reasons. First, they have more to gain from investing in new technologies because they can apply them to a greater volume of inputs or outputs. For example, a new technology that reduces fertiliser use by a given amount will generate greater benefits for farms that use large amounts of fertiliser than farms that use small amounts.

Second, larger farms may be able to choose from a greater range of new technologies because technology companies will tend to direct their research and development toward the market segment they expect will generate the most sales. In many cases this will mean these companies produce technologies best suited to larger farms because these farms tend to adopt new technologies more than their smaller counterparts.

Third, managers of larger farms may have characteristics that make them more likely to adopt new technologies. For example, they may have more skills or experience in using existing technologies or be less risk averse. Alternatively, it may be that the greater size of the workforce on larger farms allows specialisation, which facilitates the adoption of new technologies. Finally, in absolute terms, larger farms typically have more equity and higher net cash flow than smaller farms. As such, they are often better placed to finance the purchase of new technologies.

These factors combine to give larger farms access to more efficient production systems than smaller farms. An implication for smaller farms seeking to improve profitability is that expanding their operations alone is not necessarily the answer. It is also important to access leading technologies. While outright purchase of new equipment may not be an option for many small farms, access to new technologies may also be achieved by: using contractors to perform tasks such as crop sowing, spraying and harvesting; leasing advanced machinery and equipment; or entering into cooperative arrangements with other farmers to avoid incurring the entire cost of acquiring new equipment.

Industry-level consequences of increasing average farm sizeIncreasing average farm size underpins two significant industry-level changes:• more output is being produced by fewer farms• agriculture is increasingly dominated by farms at both extremes of the

size spectrum.

Figure 7 plots the proportions of the farm population and total industry output against farm size category, ordered from smallest to largest. The data show that the largest 10 per cent of businesses (receipts greater than $1 million) account for 49 per cent of total broadacre output. In contrast, the smallest 47 per cent of farms (receipts less than $200 000) account for 9 per cent of total output.

The large number of farms producing relatively little output—and hence generating relatively little income—reflects the importance of off-farm income in sustaining many farm households. ABARES farm survey data show that the smallest 52 per cent of farms derive, on average, 85 per cent of their disposable household income from off-farm sources. In contrast, the largest 10 per cent derive only 16 per cent of their disposable income from off-farm sources.

128



FIGURE 7 Share of broadacre farm population and total output, by farm size, 2010–11 to 2012–13

%


Whole farm receipts

5

10

15

20

25

30

Share of salesShare of farms

>$2m

$1.5m to$2m

$1m to$1.5m

$800k to$1m

$600k to$800k

$450k to$600k

$300k to$450k

$200k to$300k

$100k to $200k

<$100k

Output concentration is also relatively high in individual agricultural industries. Figure 8 plots cumulative output against the cumulative share of the farm population, ordered from largest to smallest. The largest 20 per cent of vegetable and beef farms account for around 90 per cent of total output. Similarly, the largest 20 per cent of wool, grains and dairy farms account for around 80 per cent of total output.

FIGURE 8 Output concentration by industry, 2012–13

0

Sources: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey; Australian Dairy Industry Survey; Australian Vegetable Industry Survey

Beef

20

40

60

80

100VegetablesWoolDairyGrains

1009080706050403020100

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e of

indu

stry

out

put (

%)

Cumulative share of farm population (%)

129



Figure 9 shows the trend toward increasing output concentration over time. The share of output produced by large farms (receipts greater than $1 million) has increased substantially, from 16 per cent in 1978–79 to 50 per cent in 2012–13. Conversely, the share of output produced by medium-size farms (receipts between $200 000 and $1 million) declined significantly over the same period, from 67 per cent to 38 per cent. The share of output produced by small farms (receipts less than $200 000) also declined, from 17 per cent to 12 per cent.

FIGURE 9 Broadacre farms, contribution to total sales, by farm size

%

$1m to $2m>$2 million

Shar

e of

tota

l sal

es v

alue

for

sect

or

$450k to $1m$200 to $450k<$200k

20

40

60

80

100

2012–13p1996–971978–79


The ongoing trend toward greater concentration of farm output suggests that aggregate measures of industry productivity and profitability are now significantly determined by the performance of a relatively small number of large farms. It is possible that such measures differ from those pertaining to the majority of farmers because large farms differ significantly from the smallest farms in terms of economic performance and technologies used.

The second industry-level consequence of increasing average farm size is that the structure of the broadacre industry is increasingly dominated by farms at either end of the size spectrum. At one end, a relatively small number of large farms now account for the majority of output. At the other end, a consequence of the trend toward larger farms is that, in absolute numbers, the majority of farm businesses in Australia are now small rather than medium sized.

The number and share of medium-size farms declined significantly over the survey period of 1978–79 to 2012–13 (Figure 10). In 1978–79 there were approximately 49 000 medium-size farms in the broadacre sector. These farms accounted for 50 per cent of the farm population. By 2012–13 the number of medium-size farms had declined to around 18 000, representing 35 per cent of the farm population.

The survey data suggest these changes were driven mainly by the exit of these farms from the sector, with larger farmers acquiring their land and other resources, rather than by these farms ‘growing out’ of the medium-size category. In particular, the number of farms in the large-size category increased from 3200 to 5500 over this period, a much smaller increase than the change that occurred in the number of medium-size farms, and the average size of large farms increased by approximately 40 per cent.

130



FIGURE 10 Number of broadacre farms, by size

’000

$1m to $2m>$2 million

Num

ber

of fa

rms

$450k to $1m$200 to $450k<$200k

20

40

60

80

100

2012–13p1996–971978–79


Furthermore, the survey data indicate that growth in the size of large farms has been driven more by these farms acquiring the resources of medium farms than acquiring the resources of small farms. Between 1978–79 and 2012–13, the number of medium-size farms declined by 63 per cent, while the number of small farms declined by 36 per cent. This adjustment reflects several factors:• small farms account for a relatively small amount of agricultural land and as such

represent a relatively limited opportunity for large farms to expand• owners of small farms typically derive a substantial share of their income from

off-farm sources and hence may be under relatively little pressure to release the capital they have invested in farming to maintain a particular standard of living

• small farms are attractive for recreational or lifestyle uses, are often close to urban centres and typically have substantial fixed improvements such as houses. These factors increase the per hectare value of small farms, making them less attractive to other farmers seeking to expand.

Accordingly, while the absolute number of both small and medium-size farms declined over the survey period, this occurred relatively slowly for small farms, such that the share of these farms increased from 47 per cent to 55 per cent, while medium farms declined from 50 per cent to 35 per cent of the population. Overall, the adjustments associated with farms growing larger over the past 36 years mean that small farms now account for the majority of all farms in the broadacre sector, while the importance of medium-size farms has decreased.

131



ConclusionOver the 36 years from 1977–78 to 2012–13, many Australian farmers have chosen to expand their operations or to exit agriculture. The positive relationship between farm size and profit is a compelling explanation of the growth in average farm size. While there are examples of highly profitable (and unprofitable) farms in any group of similar-size farms, generally speaking the more profitable farms tend to be the larger ones. The factors underlying this relationship include greater access to new technology and management skill. There is nothing to suggest these factors are temporary, so the trend toward larger farms in Australia is likely to continue.

Ongoing growth in farm size is likely to depend on the continued creation and adoption of new technologies that enable larger farms to realise greater profitability. However, the trends described in this chapter are not a prescription for improving individual farm performance. While larger farms are more profitable on average than their smaller counterparts, there is no guarantee that becoming larger will lead to higher profits and there can be risks associated with expansion. As for any farm business change, individual farmers are best positioned to evaluate the benefits and risks of expanding and to identify the best course of action.

The trend toward larger farms in Australia has significant industry-level consequences. Of particular importance is that broadacre agriculture is now more than ever dominated by farms at either end of the size spectrum: a small number of large farms account for the vast majority of total output, and the operators of small farms now represent the majority of farmers.

ReferencesKingwell, R, Anderton, L, Islam, N, Xayavong, V, Wardell-Johnson, A, Feldman, D & Speijers, J 2013, Broadacre farmers adapting to a changing climate, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, available at nccarf.edu.au/publications/broadacre-farmers-adapting-changing-climate.

Makeham, JP & Malcolm, LR 1993, The farming game now, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Sheng, Y, Zhao, S & Nossal, K 2011, ‘Productivity and farm size in Australian agriculture: reinvestigating the returns to scale’, paper presented at 2011 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Conference, Melbourne, 9–11 February.

http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/broadacre-farmers-adapting-changing-climate

http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/broadacre-farmers-adapting-changing-climate

133Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 35

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 135

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 136

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 137

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 143

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 140

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 141

3 Farm costs and returns 142

4 Volume of production indexes 144

5 Industry gross value added 144

6 Employment 145

7 All banks lending to business 145

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 146

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 146

10 Gross unit values of farm products 147

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 148

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 150

13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production 152

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers 154

15 Average farm yields 155

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports 156

17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) 158

18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 160

19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) 161

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 162

21 Agricultural exports to Republic of Korea (fob) 163

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 164

23 Volume of fisheries products exports 165

24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 166

25 Volume of fisheries products imports 167

26 Value of fisheries products imports 168

27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 169

28 Volume of forest products exports 170

29 Value of forest products exports (fob) 171

30 Volume of forest products imports 172

31 Value of forest products imports 173

32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 174


GDP, exports

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2013–14 dollars

China 9% China 22%

Japan 17% Japan 10%

ASEAN 15% ASEAN 19%

Other Asia 12% Other Asia 13%

European Union 28 11% European Union 28 7%

Middle East 8% Middle East 9%

United States 12% United States 7%

Other 16% Other 13%

Japan 18% Japan 18%

China 9% China 36%

Korea, Rep. of 8% Korea, Rep. of 7%


New Zealand 7% New Zealand 3%

India 4% India 3%

European Union 28 12% European Union 28 4%

Other 33% Other 25%

Japan 32% Japan 17%

Hong Kong 36% Hong Kong 22%

China 4% China 3%


Singapore 2% Singapore 3%

Taiwan 5% Taiwan 1%

Vietnam 1% Vietnam 43%

Other 11% Other 8%

2013–142003–04

Total $143.4b $273.2b

$34.4b $41.1bAgriculture

$2.1b $1.3bFisheries

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2011–12

Services 74%

Mining 10%

Building and construction 8%

Manufacturing 6%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 2%

Services 75%

Manufacturing 9%

Mining 8%

Building and construction 6%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 2%

2013–14

$1569.5b

2003–04

$1182.2b


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2013–14 dollars

United States 15%

Japan 12%

China 12%

Germany 6%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 4%

New Zealand 4%

Other 43%

United States 10%

Japan 7%

China 20%

Germany 5%

Malaysia 4%

Singapore 5%

New Zealand 3%

Other 46%

China 4%

ASEAN 13%

Other Asia 4%

European Union 28 33%

New Zealand 18%

United States 13%

Other 15%

China 6%

ASEAN 21%

Other Asia 4%

European Union 28 24%

New Zealand 19%

United States 11%

Other 15%

2013–142003–04

Total $172.3b $252.1b

$7.8b $15.0bAgriculture

$1.5b $2.0bFisheriesThailand 20%

New Zealand 16%

China 6%

Vietnam 8%

Malaysia 2%

United States 3%

Other 45%

Thailand 21%

New Zealand 11%

China 18%

Vietnam 12%

Malaysia 5%

United States 4%

Other 29%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2013–142003–04

1000 2000 3000 4000

China

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Vietnam

China

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Vietnam

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

50 100 150 200 250 200 400 600 1000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Iraq

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Indonesia

100 200 300 400

500 1000 2500 30001500 2000 200 400 600 800 1000

200 600400 800 1000 1200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

New Zealand

China

Hong Kong

Vietnam

Iraq

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

New Zealand

China

Hong Kong

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2013–142003–04

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

Japan

United States

China

China

Saudi Arabia

United States

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

Hong Kong

20 40 60 80 100 10050 150 200 300250 350

100 200 300 400 500 1000 1500 2000

20 40 60 80 100

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

Hong Kong

100 200 300 400 500

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United States

China

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

China

Saudi Arabia

United States

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

United ArabEmirates

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity edible fish

kt

Value edible fish

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2013–142003–04

50 100 150 200 250 300

New Zealand

United States

China

Philippines

South Africa

New Zealand

United States

China

Philippines

South Africa

50 100 150 200 250

Japan

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Thailand

United States

China

Hong Kong

Japan

China

Singapore

Malaysia

Taiwan

100 200kt

50 100 150 200 250 300

3 6 9 12 15

2 4 6 8 1210 300 400

Japan

New Zealand

Hong Kong

Thailand

United States

China

Hong Kong

Japan

China

Singapore

Malaysia

Taiwan


TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

barley 108.3 135.8 131.7 173.4 165.2 146.7 canola 114.2 141.1 133.1 142.1 129.9 114.5 grain sorghum 115.9 125.8 111.6 148.8 171.4 157.0 lupins 137.5 136.9 118.7 173.5 190.8 155.2 oats 116.9 143.2 147.7 172.9 179.3 165.8 wheat 110.4 130.1 114.6 158.3 168.8 153.7Total grains a 109.0 126.3 115.7 147.9 151.9 137.6Cotton 98.4 103.6 110.8 98.1 105.7 104.6Hay 181.5 151.1 133.0 144.9 160.9 168.9Fruit 146.6 181.8 181.4 156.5 158.8 163.1Sugar 137.8 128.0 147.1 137.0 112.1 108.7Vegetables 150.3 167.3 161.3 172.8 174.1 178.8Total crops sector 108.4 121.9 117.8 130.1 131.5 125.9

cattle 160.0 172.6 173.3 163.3 161.4 180.4 lambs b 218.7 255.4 250.8 182.8 232.8 251.2 sheep 343.3 438.0 390.3 200.0 288.6 334.2 live sheep for export 248.4 304.6 343.7 247.6 233.4 266.7 pigs 147.1 135.7 134.5 132.5 147.4 147.1 poultry 113.8 110.1 108.3 114.4 115.4 116.3 total 163.7 175.6 175.0 158.6 167.6 181.6

wool 116.0 158.4 169.2 144.4 149.8 156.9 milk 125.2 144.8 140.9 134.3 167.5 150.8 eggs 105.5 104.2 104.2 107.4 112.7 115.8 total 120.0 144.6 146.0 134.9 155.2 148.8Store and breeding stock 168.4 194.0 199.5 173.8 177.4 199.5Total livestock sector 145.7 162.9 163.4 148.6 161.1 168.4Total prices received 124.4 139.5 137.2 138.7 144.7 144.4a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES

Livestock products

Livestock sector

1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustraliaCrops sector GrainsCrops

Livestock for slaughter

Prices


TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 d f d b f d f d2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Farmers’ terms of trade a 88 4 96 3 93 2 95 5 99 2 97 2Farmers’ terms of trade a 88.4 96.3 93.2 95.5 99.2 97.2Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesS d f dd d li t kSeed, fodder and livestock fodder and feedstuffs 145.9 121.2 115.6 127.0 128.1 120.9 fodder and feedstuffs 145.9 121.2 115.6 127.0 128.1 120.9seed, seedlings and plants 109.5 120.0 116.4 128.0 131.4 127.0 seed, seedlings and plants 109.5 120.0 116.4 128.0 131.4 127.0store and breeding stock 168 4 194 0 199 5 173 8 177 4 199 5 store and breeding stock 168.4 194.0 199.5 173.8 177.4 199.5total 147 0 137 8 135 1 138 0 139 8 139 4 total 147.0 137.8 135.1 138.0 139.8 139.4Ch i lChemicals 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 113.6 114.7Electricity 141.9 158.8 176.7 180.8 185.5 180.9Electricity 141.9 158.8 176.7 180.8 185.5 180.9Fertiliser 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 150.0 157.8Fertiliser 156.0 157.3 165.5 157.9 150.0 157.8Fuel and lubricants 191 7 211 3 228 2 216 8 221 1 227 7Fuel and lubricants 191.7 211.3 228.2 216.8 221.1 227.7Total 146 4 146 0 149 2 149 5 151 4 154 0Total 146.4 146.0 149.2 149.5 151.4 154.0Marketing 134.0 144.8 154.1 153.6 159.2 166.0gOverheadsInsurance 167 0 173 7 185 8 190 0 195 0 200 3OverheadsInsurance 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.0 195.0 200.3Interest paid 111 2 122 3 114 9 96 4 85 3 83 4Interest paid 111.2 122.3 114.9 96.4 85.3 83.4R d 144 9 149 4 153 0 156 4 160 5 164 9Rates and taxes 144.9 149.4 153.0 156.4 160.5 164.9Other overheads 139.5 143.9 147.3 151.8 155.7 159.9Other overheads 139.5 143.9 147.3 151.8 155.7 159.9Total 124.3 133.6 129.8 117.6 110.6 110.4Total 124.3 133.6 129.8 117.6 110.6 110.4Capital items 144 8 149 3 153 2 157 0 161 4 166 0Capital items 144.8 149.3 153.2 157.0 161.4 166.0Total prices paid 140 8 144 8 147 2 145 2 145 8 148 5Total prices paid 140.8 144.8 147.2 145.2 145.8 148.5Excluding capital items 140.4 144.4 146.6 144.0 144.3 146.8g pExcluding capital and overheads 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.9 154.7 158.2Excluding capital and overheads 144.9 147.1 151.3 151.9 154.7 158.2Excluding seed, fodder andstore and breeding stock 139 4 146 2 149 7 146 6 147 0 150 4Excluding seed, fodder and store and breeding stock 139.4 146.2 149.7 146.6 147.0 150.4a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES p y p p yestimate.estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with aNote: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a f f 1997 98 100 P i d i th l l ti l d GSTreference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.

Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Prices


TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

chemicals $m 1 495 1 462 1 471 1 431 1 461 1 461 fertiliser $m 2 143 2 248 2 344 2 240 2 086 2 168 fuel and lubricants $m 1 964 2 254 2 407 2 290 2 263 2 290 marketing $m 3 826 3 837 3 998 3 842 4 257 4 076 repairs and maintenance $m 3 014 3 659 3 878 4 111 4 688 4 597 seed and fodder $m 4 550 4 213 4 131 4 641 4 704 4 509 other $m 3 967 4 261 4 426 4 555 4 758 4 732 total $m 20 959 21 935 22 655 23 110 24 217 23 834Labour $m 3 789 4 145 4 174 4 346 4 272 4 326

interest paid $m 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 259 3 956 4 063 rent and third party insurance $m 494 513 525 537 551 566Total $m 8 738 9 680 9 536 9 142 8 779 8 955Total cash costs $m 29 697 31 615 32 191 32 252 32 996 32 789Depreciation a $m 4 792 4 944 5 072 5 199 5 342 5 495Total farm costs $m 34 490 36 559 37 263 37 451 38 338 38 284

Gross value of farm production $m 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 569 53 354 50 323

Net value of farm production b $m 5 304 9 816 10 169 11 118 15 016 12 040Real net value of farm production c $m 6 037 10 835 10 970 11 729 15 423 12 040Net farm cash income d $m 10 096 14 759 15 241 16 317 20 358 17 534Real net farm cash income c $m 11 491 16 292 16 441 17 214 20 910 17 534

3FarmcostsandreturnsAustralia

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2014–15 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Costs Materials and services

Overheads

Returns

Net returns and production

Costs and returns


Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2011–12

2012–13

2009–10

2010–11

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Othermerchandise

14%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

71%

Mineralresources

69%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

15%

Services18%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources57%

Services 16%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources60%

Services17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources58%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Othermerchandise

15%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

71%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments adjusted to include farm, fisheries and forestry products classified as other merchandise by Australian Bureau of Statistics.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2013–14

Mineralresources

70%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

14%

Services17%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources58%


TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustralia5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14unit 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

Agriculture forestry and fishingagriculture $ 27 914 27 640 28 848 29 046 28 419 29 020

Agriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture $m 27 914 27 640 28 848 29 046 28 419 29 020f d fi hi $ forestry and fishing $m 4 555 4 534 4 546 4 678 4 387 4 351y g

total $m 32 485 32 191 33 392 33 725 32 806 33 372 total $m 32 485 32 191 33 392 33 725 32 806 33 372Mining $m 113 591 122 411 124 847 134 119 149 699 163 700Mining $m 113 591 122 411 124 847 134 119 149 699 163 700Manufacturingf d b d l h l $ 23 36 2 2 3 2 2 6 2 82 2 382 2 0

Manufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 23 536 24 273 24 276 24 482 24 382 24 405, g textile, clothing, footwear textile, clothing, footwear

and leather $m 7 134 5 834 5 628 5 391 5 251 5 422 and leather $m 7 134 5 834 5 628 5 391 5 251 5 422wood and paper products $m 7 109 7 291 6 864 6 299 6 476 6 635 wood and paper products $m 7 109 7 291 6 864 6 299 6 476 6 635printing publishing printing, publishing

d d d di $ 4 645 4 274 4 267 3 812 4 158 3 943 and recorded media $m 4 645 4 274 4 267 3 812 4 158 3 943 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 18 269 18 973 18 979 19 481 19 231 18 035 petroleum, coal, chemical products $ non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 154 6 058 5 953 5 587 5 507 5 574 non metallic mineral products $m 6 154 6 058 5 953 5 587 5 507 5 574metal products $m 18 165 17 388 18 181 18 185 16 947 17 239 metal products $m 18 165 17 388 18 181 18 185 16 947 17 239machinery and equipment $m 19 933 21 183 20 760 21 655 21 760 20 332 machinery and equipment $m 19 933 21 183 20 760 21 655 21 760 20 332t t l $ 104 605 105 058 104 885 104 892 103 713 101 586 total $m 104 605 105 058 104 885 104 892 103 713 101 586

Building and construction $m 100 375 100 889 103 663 114 786 115 392 119 616Building and construction $Electricity, gas and water supply $m 36 604 36 970 37 985 38 008 37 642 36 457Electricity, gas and water supply $m 36 604 36 970 37 985 38 008 37 642 36 457Taxes less subsidies on products $m 89 813 89 365 91 687 93 427 94 373 94 239Taxes less subsidies on products $m 89 813 89 365 91 687 93 427 94 373 94 239St ti ti l di $ 0 0 1 0 314 4 110Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 – 1 0 314 4 110p yGross domestic product $m 1 375 809 1 402 813 1 434 226 1 486 071 1 525 282 1 569 478Gross domestic product $m 1 375 809 1 402 813 1 434 226 1 486 071 1 525 282 1 569 478a Chain volume measures reference year is 2011–12 b ANZSIC 2006a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2011–12. b ANZSIC 2006.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 millionNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian national accounts: national income, expenditure and product, cat. no. , , p p ,5206.0, Canberra5206.0, Canberra

TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 l f d d l4VolumeofproductionindexesAustralia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

FarmGrains and oilseeds i d 116 6 139 9 158 6 138 4 151 8 136 6FarmGrains and oilseeds index 116.6 139.9 158.6 138.4 151.8 136.6

lTotal crops index 115.3 123.3 135.1 133.0 139.8 128.7pLivestock slaughterings index 109.4 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.6 124.4Livestock slaughterings index 109.4 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.6 124.4Total livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 110.9 108.6Total livestock index 98.7 100.6 100.7 104.7 110.9 108.6Total farm sector index 108 0 112 8 118 5 119 5 126 0 119 3Total farm sector index 108.0 112.8 118.5 119.5 126.0 119.3F tForestry aHardwood index 109.9 113.9 94.1 91.6 103.1 119.1Softwood index 130.9 136.0 126.6 122.9 131.9 141.5Softwood index 130.9 136.0 126.6 122.9 131.9 141.5Total forestry index 120.8 125.4 111.1 107.9 118.1 130.8Total forestry index 120.8 125.4 111.1 107.9 118.1 130.8a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatea Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.N t ABARE i d th th d f l l ti d ti i d i O t b 1999 Th i d f th diff tNote: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997 98 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Sectors


TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

STATISTICS

6 l l6EmploymentAustraliaa,bAustralia6EmploymentAustraliaa,bAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000Agriculture forestry and fishingagricultureAgriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture 311 308 294 277 261 271f d l forestry and logging 7 7 5 8 6 6y gg g 7 7 5 8 6 6 commercial fishing c 9 12 12 11 9 9 commercial fishing c 9 12 12 11 9 9support services 23 25 26 25 25 27 support services 23 25 26 25 25 27total 350 351 337 321 302 313 total 350 351 337 321 302 313Mi iMining 169 171 203 247 266 269gManufacturing food beverages and tobacco 221 220 220 219 216 223Manufacturing food, beverages and tobacco 221 220 220 219 216 223textiles clothing footwear textiles, clothing, footwear

d l th 48 46 44 39 40 37 and leather 48 46 44 39 40 37 wood and paper product 66 63 56 54 52 62 wood and paper product 66 63 56 54 52 62printing, publishing printing, publishingand recorded media 51 52 55 41 47 41 and recorded media 51 52 55 41 47 41

petroleum coal petroleum, coald h i l d and chemical product 89 87 84 88 90 85p

non‐metallic mineral product 39 36 36 37 35 35 non metallic mineral product 39 36 36 37 35 35metal product 154 143 143 144 127 138 metal product 154 143 143 144 127 138other manufacturing 346 339 332 318 328 309 other manufacturing 346 339 332 318 328 309total 1 014 987 970 938 935 930 total 1 014 987 970 938 935 930h i d iOther industries 9 226 9 336 9 605 9 743 9 886 9 971

Total 10 758 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482Total 10 758 10 846 11 115 11 249 11 389 11 482a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when using employmenta Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability andstatistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and

d d hi h f i l l d l fi hi h i d istandard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.g p p p q g g pp gSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, CanberraSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Canberra

TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2011–12 2013–142012–132011 12Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar

2013 142012 13Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l fAgriculture, forestry and fishing 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6 60.7 60.0 58.3 58.5g , y

and fishing 62.4 60.5 59.2 58.6 60.7 60.0 58.3 58.5Mining 17 0 18 9 18 2 18 9 21 0 24 1 25 9 26 5Mining 17.0 18.9 18.2 18.9 21.0 24.1 25.9 26.5Manufacturing 42 5 41 0 39 8 39 7 39 6 38 7 38 0 41 8Manufacturing 42.5 41.0 39.8 39.7 39.6 38.7 38.0 41.8C t ti 30 3 29 1 27 8 28 0 27 5 27 8 27 7 28 4Construction 30.3 29.1 27.8 28.0 27.5 27.8 27.7 28.4Wh l l d il dWholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0 103.0 104.1 103.1 105.3

, transport and storage 101.7 100.6 103.2 103.0 103.0 104.1 103.1 105.3Finance and insurance 100.8 102.7 102.9 104.1 107.2 112.3 122.8 124.8Finance and insurance 100.8 102.7 102.9 104.1 107.2 112.3 122.8 124.8Other 329 3 342 6 342 6 345 2 351 3 352 8 354 5 357 6Other 329.3 342.6 342.6 345.2 351.3 352.8 354.5 357.6T t l 683 9 695 5 693 8 697 5 710 4 719 8 730 4 742 8Total 683.9 695.5 693.8 697.5 710.4 719.8 730.4 742.8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank lending to business – selected statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank lending to business – selected statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8

Employment, banks


TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia

STATISTICS

8 l d b d f l8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mRural debtAll b kRural debtAll banks a 57 384 58 097 60 184 59 749 60 657 naOther government agencies b 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 naOther government agencies b 1 615 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 naPastoral and otherfi iPastoral and other finance companies 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801 1 410 naLarge finance institutional debt c 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626 64 302 nag 63 461 61 937 64 065 63 626 64 302 naDepositsFarm management deposits 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 3 280DepositsFarm management deposits 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 3 280a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state g g , g y g g ybanks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industrybanks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending c Sum of the above na Not availableDevelopment Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. na Not available.S ABARES D t t f A i lt C b R B k f A t li E ti t d R l D bt t S ifi dSources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 l ld d f l d d9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

WorldWorldCropsCropsWheat a US$/t 209 317 299 348 317 285Wheat a $/Corn b US$/t 160 254 281 312 219 185Corn b US$/t 160 254 281 312 219 185Rice c US$/t 557 518 590 565 428 430Rice c US$/t 557 518 590 565 428 430S b d US$/t 395 493 506 597 547 460Soybeans d US$/t 395 493 506 597 547 460

/Cotton e USc/lb 78 164 100 88 91 70Cotton e /Sugar g USc/lb 21 28 23 18 17 14Sugar g USc/lb 21 28 23 18 17 14Livestock productsBeef h US /k 319 391 433 439 439 482Livestock productsBeef h USc/kg 319 391 433 439 439 482W lWool i Ac/kg 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 071 1 120Ac/kg 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 071 1 120Butter j US$/t 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 400Butter j US$/t 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 400Cheese j US$/t 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 817 4 300Cheese j US$/t 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 817 4 300Ski ilk d j $Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 513 3 400$/a US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white a US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice 100 per cent Grade B fob Bangkok (August–July basis) d US fob Gulf e Cotlook ‘A’ index f ABARES forecastrice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US fob Gulf. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. N b f t i (O t b S t b b i ) I t ti t l E h N Y k 11 t t h Cg Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h Cow

90CL US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding 90C US c p ce ust a a oo c a ge easte a et d cato j e age o t aded p ces (e c ud gsubsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.subsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia;Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia; I t ti t l E h I t ti l G i C il M t & Li t k A t li N Y k B d f T dIntercontinental Exchange; International Grains Council; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; United States Department of Agriculture United States Department of Agriculture

Farm debt, world prices


TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

10 l f f d10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsa10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Crops bCrops bGrainsGrainsb l $/ 172 216 210 276 263 233 barley $/t 172 216 210 276 263 233y corn (maize) $/t 268 259 251 238 251 240 corn (maize) $/t 268 259 251 238 251 240grain sorghum $/t 196 213 189 252 290 266 grain sorghum $/t 196 213 189 252 290 266oats $/t 160 196 202 236 245 227 oats $/t 160 196 202 236 245 227rice $/t 457 240 270 260 326 330 rice $/t 457 240 270 260 326 330i i l $/ triticale $/t 220 184 176 249 295 287

wheat $/t 218 257 227 313 334 304 wheat $/t 218 257 227 313 334 304OilseedsOilseedscanola $/t 440 544 513 548 501 441 canola $/t 440 544 513 548 501 441soybeans c $/t 551 501 472 442 508 457 soybeans c $/t 551 501 472 442 508 457sunflower seed $/ sunflower seed c $/t 696 567 551 570 592 533$/PulsesPulseschickpeas $/t 443 404 457 394 354 366 chickpeas $/t 443 404 457 394 354 366field peas $/t 241 266 295 406 434 366 field peas $/t 241 266 295 406 434 366l i $/t 269 268 232 340 373 304 lupins $/t 269 268 232 340 373 304Industrial cropspCotton lint d c/kg 205 377 225 199 229 182Cotton lint d c/kg 205 377 225 199 229 182Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 44 38 43 43 36 35Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 44 38 43 43 36 35Wine grapes $/t 464 413 458 499 470 477Wine grapes $/t 464 413 458 499 470 477Li t kLivestock Beef cattle c/kg 311 336 337 318 314 351 Beef cattle / g Lambs c/kg 444 519 509 371 473 510 Lambs c/kg 444 519 509 371 473 510Pigs c/kg 291 269 266 262 292 291 Pigs c/kg 291 269 266 262 292 291Poultry c/kg 204 197 194 205 207 208 Poultry c/kg 204 197 194 205 207 208Li k dLivestock productsp Wool c/kg 456 623 666 568 589 617 Wool c/kg 456 623 666 568 589 617Milk c/L 37 43 42 40 50 45 Milk c/L 37 43 42 40 50 45a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets unless otherwise indicated Includes the cost of containersa Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers,

i i d th i d i tti th diti t th i i i l k t Thcommission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales g g g p y , gtake place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial yeartake place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimateindicated. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.N t P i d i th l l ti l d GSTNote: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Gross unit values


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 f

production Mt 679 653 695 655 713 714 consumption Mt 653 657 696 675 695 705 closing stocks Mt 199 194 194 173 190 200 exports b Mt 128 126 145 140 156 144

production Mt 1 118 1 099 1 157 1 137 1 274 1 267 consumption Mt 1 106 1 129 1 138 1 142 1 229 1 251 closing stocks Mt 198 166 165 165 210 226 exports b Mt 123 116 147 123 158 150

production c Mt 441 449 467 472 476 480 consumption c Mt 437 445 459 469 476 480 closing stocks c Mt 96 100 107 110 109 109 exports bd Mt 31 36 39 38 40 37

production Mt 447 461 446 475 502 518 consumption Mt 424 448 466 467 485 507 closing stocks Mt 76 84 65 67 83 94 exports Mt 107 108 111 118 133 133





continued...

Oilseeds

Vegetable oils

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommodities

Vegetable protein meals

Grains

Cotton

Sugar

Farm

Oilseeds and vegetable oils

Industrial crops

Wheat

Coarse grains

Rice


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 f

production Mt 257 261 267 271 274 277 consumption Mt 255 257 263 267 270 272 closing stocks Mt 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 exports b Mt 24.3 26.1 27.2 28.2 28.9 29.7

production kt 1 126 1 117 1 110 1 133 1 131 1 132 consumption di kt 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127 na closing stocks j kt 55 45 24 25 35 na exports k kt 501 502 447 485 496 na

production kt 8 179 8 584 8 914 9 096 9 284 na consumption kt 7 827 8 094 8 419 8 651 8 831 na closing stocks kt 176 213 246 241 238 na exports kt 735 723 764 782 803 naSkim milk powder dgl production kt 3 398 3 675 3 983 3 929 4 097 na consumption kt 3 005 3 192 3 446 3 423 3 531 na closing stocks kt 502 453 430 354 355 na exports kt 1 316 1 528 1 630 1 712 1 747 na

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesa

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Excludes intra‐EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 2011–12 = 2012. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non‐fat dry milk. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; International Wool Textile Organisation; ISTA Mielke and Co; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Melbourne; United States Department of Agriculture; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters

Livestock products Meat deg

Wool h

Butter dg


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 fCropsGrains barley kt 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 545 7 547 corn (maize) kt 328 357 451 507 335 383 grain sorghum kt 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 230 1 107 1 844 oats kt 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 121 1 326 1 165 rice kt 197 723 919 1 161 833 894 triticale kt 545 355 285 171 268 251 wheat kt 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 856 27 013 24 234Oilseeds canola kt 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 760 3 388 cottonseed kt 547 1 269 1 732 1 439 1 259 820 soybeans kt 60 30 86 92 63 77 sunflower seed kt 41 43 47 44 32 44 other oilseeds a kt 40 33 35 35 34 34Pulses chickpeas kt 487 513 673 813 629 470 field peas kt 356 395 342 320 342 302 lupins kt 823 808 982 459 625 576Total grains, oilseeds and pulses kt 37 699 45 352 50 606 42 861 47 171 42 029Industrial cropsCotton lint kt 387 926 1 225 1 018 890 580Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 500 31 600Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 380 4 600Wine grapes kt 1 533 1 598 1 582 1 642 1 560 1 504Horticulture ktFruit apples kt 264 300 289 289 278 300 bananas kt 302 203 286 330 369 376 oranges kt 391 291 390 401 430 445Vegetables carrots kt 267 225 319 272 314 320 onions kt 260 331 347 302 284 305 potatoes kt 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 273 1 267 1 255 tomatoes kt 472 302 372 456 430 460LivestockSlaughterings Cattle and calves ’000 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 457 9 473 9 000 Lambs ’000 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 122 21 899 21 000 Sheep ’000 7 333 5 341 5 175 8 192 10 066 7 400 Pigs ’000 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 778 4 800Live exportsCattle exported live b ’000 958 805 683 634 1 133 1 120Sheep exported live c ’000 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 200Meat producedBeef and veal d kt 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 245 2 464 2 380Lamb d kt 413 391 419 457 474 457Mutton d kt 162 123 120 183 228 168Chicken meat d kt 834 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 084 1 130Pig meat kt 331 342 351 356 360 364Total kt 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 610 4 498

continued...

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustralia


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

Wool e kt 423 429 411 435 422 401Milk g ML 9 023 9 100 9 480 9 201 9 239 9 290Butter h kt 128 122 120 118 116 110Cheese kt 350 339 347 338 312 310Casein kt 8 5 5 5 4 3Skim milk powder kt 190 222 230 224 211 200Whole milk powder kt 126 151 140 109 126 130Buttermilk powder kt 13 12 11 11 11 11

Hardwood ’000 m3 11 144 11 551 9 548 9 291 10 454 12 077Softwood ’000 m3 14 418 14 981 13 949 13 536 14 526 15 590Total ’000 m3 25 563 26 532 23 497 22 827 24 979 27 667

Tuna kt 11.0 9.1 10.1 11.4 11.5 11.8Salmonids k kt 32.0 36.8 44.2 43.0 44.6 49.6Other fish kt 120.7 112.9 113.1 114.2 113.4 113.6Prawns kt 27.3 27.2 22.5 24.0 25.6 25.1Rocklobster l kt 10.1 9.9 9.1 10.3 9.8 9.7Abalone m kt 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.1Scallops kt 7.6 7.0 3.6 6.8 4.5 4.6Oysters kt 14.9 13.9 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.0Other molluscs kt 6.4 6.6 7.9 7.9 6.7 6.5Other crustaceans kt 5.7 6.3 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4

Livestock products

Forestry products i

Fisheries j

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. h Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Excludes logs harvested for firewood. j Liveweight. k Includes salmon and trout production. l Includes Queensland bugs. m Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Dairy Australia; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Regions, Fisheries, South Australia; Pulse Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

CropsGrains barley 1 356 1 729 1 723 2 063 2 510 1 762 corn (maize) 88 92 113 120 84 92 grain sorghum 296 412 423 562 321 490 oats 186 221 255 265 325 264 rice 90 174 248 302 272 295 triticale 120 65 50 43 79 72 wheat 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 154 9 019 7 364Oilseeds canola 840 1 283 1 759 2 270 1 884 1 496 soybeans 33 15 41 41 32 35 sunflower seed 29 24 26 25 19 23 other oilseeds a 37 30 33 27 23 23Pulses chickpeas 216 207 308 320 223 172 field peas 86 105 101 130 149 110 lupins 222 216 228 156 234 175Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 8 663 12 138 12 485 13 924 15 673 12 795Industrial cropsCotton lint and cottonseed b 828 2 087 2 954 2 174 2 048 1 273Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 321 1 100 1 121Wine grapes 711 712 725 858 733 718Total industrial crops 2 922 3 834 4 893 4 352 3 882 3 111HorticultureTable and dried grapes 398 302 316 303 314 305Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 662 3 786 3 931Vegetables 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 770 3 703 3 899Other horticulture 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 285 1 297 1 376Total horticulture 8 020 8 259 7 976 9 020 9 100 9 512Other crops nei c 1 660 1 105 898 1 165 1 545 1 345Total crops 21 265 25 336 26 251 28 461 30 200 26 763

continued...

13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustralia


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia continued

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Cattle and calves d 6 567 7 164 7 134 7 136 7 739 8 355Sheep e 499 484 419 329 590 504Lambs eg 1 832 2 029 2 136 1 696 2 242 2 328Pigs 965 919 934 934 1 050 1 060Poultry 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 214 2 314 2 445

Cattle exported live h 701 660 651 589 1 049 1 079Sheep exported live i 298 348 345 194 185 230Total livestock j 12 722 13 795 13 797 13 207 15 290 16 127

Wool k 1 928 2 673 2 734 2 472 2 487 2 472Milk l 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 687 4 619 4 181Eggs 428 572 583 653 670 690Honey and beeswax 80 66 79 88 87 91Total livestock products 5 807 7 243 7 383 6 900 7 864 7 433Total farm 39 793 46 375 47 432 48 569 53 354 50 323

Hardwood 856 892 742 685 797 899Softwood 923 959 879 824 918 985Total 1 779 1 851 1 620 1 509 1 715 1 884

Tuna 125 139 172 177 157 158Salmonids o 369 427 514 497 526 588Other fish q 464 432 456 451 443 441Prawns 325 308 266 309 350 338Rocklobster r 381 392 394 441 542 476Abalone t 173 178 170 190 177 177Scallops 23 22 8 15 10 10Oysters 101 97 90 95 96 100Pearls u 105 120 102 88 86 92Other molluscs v 32 32 33 50 31 39Other crustaceans 65 66 67 64 66 66Total fish 2 191 2 248 2 305 2 413 2 519 2 521a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. h Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. i Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. k Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate. t Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. u Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10. v Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Fisheries products n

13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustraliacontinued

LivestockSlaughterings

Live exports

Livestock products

Forestry products m


Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 fCrop areasGrains barley ’000 ha 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 644 3 920 3 778 corn (maize) ’000 ha 59 62 70 79 58 67 grain sorghum ’000 ha 498 633 659 648 493 623 oats ’000 ha 850 826 731 729 744 739 rice ’000 ha 19 76 103 114 76 91 triticale ’000 ha 350 187 145 99 152 152 wheat ’000 ha 13 881 13 502 13 902 12 979 13 512 13 837Oilseeds canola ’000 ha 1 695 2 078 2 461 3 272 2 655 2 714 soybeans ’000 ha 31 17 38 41 31 38 sunflower seed ’000 ha 27 37 40 30 27 37 other oilseeds a ’000 ha 16 19 18 17 17 17Pulses chickpeas ’000 ha 429 653 456 574 507 339 field peas ’000 ha 285 318 249 281 245 231 lupins ’000 ha 692 756 689 450 387 437Total grains, oilseeds and pulses ’000 ha 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 841 23 608 23 799Industrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 208 590 600 442 392 282Sugar cane b ’000 ha 369 314 368 371 375 381Winegrapes c ’000 ha 152 154 145 133 138 138Livestock numbers dCattle beef million 24.01 25.94 25.69 26.46 24.69 24.16 dairy million 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.83 2.90 2.90 milking herd e million 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.70 1.70 total million 26.55 28.51 28.42 29.29 27.58 27.06Sheep million 68.09 73.10 74.72 75.55 71.99 71.40Pigs million 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.10 2.15 2.17Forestry plantation areaHardwood ’000 ha 973 980 977 976 na naSoftwood ’000 ha 1 024 1 025 1 024 1 024 na naTotal plantation area g ’000 ha 2 009 2 017 2 013 2 013 na na

14CropandforestryareasandlivestocknumbersAustralia

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. d At 30 June. e Cows in milk and dry. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 f ld l15AveragefarmyieldsAustralia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

CropsCropsGrainsGrainsb l /h 1 78 2 17 2 21 2 05 2 44 2 00 barley t/ha 1.78 2.17 2.21 2.05 2.44 2.00y corn (maize) t/ha 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.44 5.78 5.75 corn (maize) t/hagrain sorghum t/ha 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.44 2.25 2.96 grain sorghum t/ha 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.44 2.25 2.96oats t/ha 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.54 1.78 1.58 oats t/ha 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.54 1.78 1.58rice t/ha 10 39 9 54 8 91 10 22 11 01 9 88 rice t/ha 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.22 11.01 9.88i i l /h 1 56 1 90 1 97 1 73 1 77 1 65 triticale t/ha 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.73 1.77 1.65

wheat t/ha 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.76 2.00 1.75 wheat t/haOilseedsOilseedscanola t/ha 1 13 1 14 1 39 1 27 1 42 1 25 canola t/ha 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.27 1.42 1.25so beans t/h 1 91 1 71 2 26 2 24 2 03 2 03 soybeans t/ha 1.91 1.71 2.26 2.24 2.03 2.03

fl d / 1 54 1 14 1 17 1 46 1 18 1 19 sunflower seed t/ha 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.46 1.18 1.19/PulsesPulseschickpeas t/ha 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.24 1.39 chickpeas t/ha 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.24 1.39field peas t/ha 1 25 1 24 1 38 1 14 1 40 1 31 field peas t/ha 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.40 1.31l i t/h 1 19 1 07 1 42 1 02 1 62 1 32 lupins t/ha 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.62 1.32Industrial cropspCotton (lint) t/ha 1.86 1.57 2.04 2.30 2.27 2.06Cotton (lint) t/ha 1.86 1.57 2.04 2.30 2.27 2.06Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 85 87 76 82 81 83Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 85 87 76 82 81 83Winegrapes t/ha 10 1 10 4 10 9 12 3 11 3 10 9Winegrapes t/ha 10.1 10.4 10.9 12.3 11.3 10.9Li t kLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.41 4.38 4.32Wool a g/ pWhole milk L/cow 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 450 5 435 5 455Whole milk L/cow 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 450 5 435 5 455a Shorn (including lambs) f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatesa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimates.S ABARES A t li B f St ti ti P l A t liSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f

CropsGrains barley a kt 4 235 4 625 6 568 5 165 7 124 4 857 corn (maize) kt 15 12 68 134 83 46 grain sorghum kt 487 553 1 112 1 291 701 408 oats kt 216 127 163 172 138 148 rice kt 28 172 537 584 552 402 wheat b kt 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 265 18 336 18 102Oilseeds canola kt 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 488 3 194 2 297 cottonseed kt 106 268 654 754 464 471 other oilseeds c kt 13 7 6 10 14 9Pulses chickpeas kt 459 409 653 852 562 504 peas d kt 163 254 248 208 155 223 lupins kt 377 289 316 416 315 201 other pulses kt 313 485 775 691 611 422Total grains, oilseeds and pulses kt 21 376 27 104 36 448 35 030 32 249 28 089

Raw cotton e kt 395 505 994 1 305 1 037 821Sugar kt 3 506 2 735 2 572 3 004 3 107 3 278Wine ML 790 748 737 717 717 710Meat and live animalsBeef and veal g kt 899 937 948 1 014 1 184 1 130Live feeder/slaughter cattle h ’000 871 728 579 513 996 1 000Live breeder cattle i ’000 87 77 105 121 137 120Lamb g kt 157 157 174 201 226 216Live sheep j ’000 3 060 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 200Mutton g kt 111 86 89 144 181 130Pig meat g kt 30 31 29 26 27 28Poultry meat g kt 28 31 38 32 37 42Wool Greasy ks kt 308 335 301 316 295 290Semi‐processed t (gr eq) 49 44 37 34 35 32Skins t (gr eq) 71 65 67 86 97 83Total ks t (gr eq) 428 444 405 437 428 405Dairy productsButter l kt 74 56 49 54 49 45Cheese kt 168 163 161 174 151 148Casein kt 10 5 4 4 3 2Skim milk powder kt 126 155 141 147 143 136Whole milk powder kt 91 108 102 87 94 100

continued...

16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaFarm

Industrial crops


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia continued

STATISTICS

16 l f l l d f h16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinued16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinuedunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 funit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

Fisheries productsTuna kt 9 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 11 0 11 2Fisheries productsTuna kt 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 11.2l idSalmonids kt 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 3.4

Other fish kt 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.6Other fish kt 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.6Prawns mFrozen kt 4 5 6 4 5 3 3 9 7 0 7 0Prawns m Frozen kt 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.9 7.0 7.0RocklobsterF h hill d fRocklobster Fresh, chilled, frozen, , or cooked kt 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.0 or cooked kt 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.0AbaloneLive fresh or chilled kt 1 8 1 7 1 6 1 4 1 5 1 6Abalone Live, fresh or chilled kt 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6Frozen or cooked kt 0 7 0 8 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 8 Frozen or cooked kt 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8P d d kt 1 1 1 0 0 8 0 7 0 5 0 6 Prepared or preserved kt 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6Scallops n kt 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Scallops n kt 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseed sunflowera Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed safflower seed and peanuts Excludes meals and oils d Includes field peas and cowpeas e Excludes cotton waste andseed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. d Includes field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and l f f h d h h h ll d f h l d b ff l i l d d l d b ff llinters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. g pp g yj Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held j Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas l Includes ghee dry butterfat butter concentrate and butter oil and dairy spreads all expressed as butteroverseas. l Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butter oil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. m Excludes volume of other prawn products n Includes crumbed scallops s ABARES estimatem Excludes volume of other prawn products. n Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; Department of Foreign Affairs and ; ; p g , ; p gTrade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)Trade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Farm

barley a 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 626 2 199 1 281 corn (maize) 8 6 24 50 36 18 grain sorghum 116 146 299 364 253 123 oats 53 37 47 60 53 44 rice 43 165 427 459 498 368 wheat b 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 103 5 611

canola 583 866 1 344 2 094 1 929 1 142 cottonseed 46 85 195 219 168 166 other oilseeds c 24 14 10 13 18 12

chickpeas 255 213 384 533 297 248 peas d 60 85 93 89 67 84 lupins 115 89 86 143 137 74 other pulses 258 311 436 418 461 253Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 6 344 8 827 11 598 12 846 12 220 9 427

Raw cotton e 755 1 367 2 736 2 695 2 352 1 670Sugar 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 437 1 360 1 359Wine 2 188 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 847 1 867Total industrial crops 4 830 4 812 6 203 5 999 5 559 4 895

Fruit 585 456 505 634 724 760Tree nuts 212 211 240 348 610 695Vegetables 282 296 276 260 270 275Nursery 23 20 15 12 11 11Other horticulture g 274 293 258 224 250 263Total horticulture 1 376 1 277 1 294 1 478 1 865 2 003Other crops and crop products 2 349 2 461 2 517 2 740 3 141 3 475Total crops 14 899 17 377 21 611 23 062 22 786 19 801

Beef and veal 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 871 6 265 6 148Live feeder/slaughter cattle h 550 499 412 339 780 831Live breeder cattle i 152 161 239 251 269 248Lamb 916 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 468 1 500Live sheep j 298 348 345 194 185 230Mutton 433 404 362 478 751 600Pig meat 109 106 100 81 85 87Poultry meat 36 38 45 43 50 58Total meat and live animals 6 446 6 909 7 030 7 342 9 851 9 703

Greasy k 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 261 2 212 2 230Semi‐processed 238 251 242 209 238 225Skins 291 426 433 398 426 400Total k 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 877 2 855

continued...

17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australia

Meat and live animals

Wool

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Oilseeds

CropsGrains

Pulses


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia continued

STATISTICS

17 l f l l d f h (f b)17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiaacontinued17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiaacontinued2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 s 2014–15 f2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 s 2014 15 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mDairy productsDairy productsButter 211 252 201 180 243 188ButterCheese 715 731 751 784 765 749Cheese 715 731 751 784 765 749Casein 88 53 48 46 42 41Casein 88 53 48 46 42 41Skim milk powder 352 504 474 467 708 510Skim milk powder 352 504 474 467 708 510Wh l ilk d 296 402 378 312 532 425Whole milk powder 296 402 378 312 532 425Other dairy products 434 408 442 443 435 317y pTotal 2 096 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 230Total 2 096 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 230Other livestock and livestock products 2 059 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 3 344Other livestock and livestock products 2 059 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 3 344Total livestock exports 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 132Total livestock exports 12 904 14 496 14 735 14 954 18 329 18 132Total farm exports 27 803 31 873 36 346 38 017 41 115 37 933Total farm exports 27 803 31 873 36 346 38 017 41 115 37 933Fi h i dFisheries productsTuna 118 131 163 163 136 143

pTuna 118 131 163 163 136 143Salmonids 30 54 42 25 17 28Salmonids 30 54 42 25 17 28Other fish 110 101 85 70 72 76Other fish 110 101 85 70 72 76PPrawns l Frozen 60 77 65 51 99 99 Frozen 60 77 65 51 99 99RocklobsterFresh chilled frozen or cooked 399 368 387 447 590 499Rocklobster Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 399 368 387 447 590 499AbaloneAbalone Live, fresh or chilled 100 88 81 80 74 79 Live, fresh or chilled Frozen or cooked 53 59 57 55 56 55 Frozen or cooked 53 59 57 55 56 55Prepared or preserved 63 65 59 52 41 47 Prepared or preserved 63 65 59 52 41 47Scallops 30 15 15 11 14 13Scallops m 30 15 15 11 14 13P l 244 241 207 152 144 150Pearls 244 241 207 152 144 150Other fisheries products 39 48 66 70 61 66pTotal fisheries products 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 255Total fisheries products 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 255a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseeda Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed,

fl d ffl d d t E l d l d il d Fi ld d E l d tt tsunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. d Field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock.miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levelsk On a balance of payments basis. Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels h ld l O h d i l d d i h fi h i d I l d b d ll ABARESheld overseas. l Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.estimate.Note: ABARES has revised the classification of pulses and these are no longer included in vegetables.Note: ABARES has revised the classification of pulses and these are no longer included in vegetables.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture Canberra; United Nations Commodity TradeSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; United Nations Commodity Trade S i i b (U C d )Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


TABLE 18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) A l18AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmCropsCropsG ibarley 235 280 311 454 494 803Grainsbarley a 235 280 311 454 494 803

0 14 14 4 98 215grain sorghum 0 14 14 4 98 215114 189 144 457 357 484wheat b 114 189 144 457 357 484

h iother grains c 0 1 0 1 6 0Oilseeds 22 1 45 116 344 627Pulses 0 5 3 4 1 1Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 331 490 516 1 036 1 300 2 130g , pIndustrial cropsRaw cotton d 165 274 551 1 812 1 849 1 517

pRaw cotton dSugar 3 4 31 21 2 65SugarWine 95 144 178 209 241 202WineTotal industrial crops 263 421 760 2 041 2 093 1 784Total industrial cropsHorticultureFruit 6 6 8 10 28 37HorticultureFruit 6 6 8 10 28 37Tree nuts 14 8 6 11 36 37Tree nuts 14 8 6 11 36 37Vegetables 1 1 2 3 3 3Vegetables 1 1 2 3 3 3Nursery 0 0 1 1 0 0Nursery 0 0 1 1 0 0Other horticulture e 3 4 3 4 4 4Other horticulture e 3 4 3 4 4 4Total horticulture 23 20 20 29 71 82Total horticulture 23 20 20 29 71 82Other crops and crop products 7 7 8 22 30 31Other crops and crop products 7 7 8 22 30 31Total crops 624 938 1 305 3 128 3 493 4 027Total crops 624 938 1 305 3 128 3 493 4 027Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 20 17 28 40 406 785Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 20 17 28 40 406 785Live breeder cattle g 37 102 102 133 125 195Live breeder cattle g 37 102 102 133 125 195Lamb 34 34 63 73 108 184Lamb 34 34 63 73 108 184Mutton 9 13 12 14 102 209Mutton 9 13 12 14 102 209Other meat and live animals h 0 5 4 0 1 5Other meat and live animals h 0 5 4 0 1 5Total meat and live animals 101 171 209 260 741 1 378Total meat and live animals 101 171 209 260 741 1 378WoolGreasy 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844 1 713Wool Greasy 1 328 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844 1 713Semi processed 55 62 21 24 18 18Semi‐processed 55 62 21 24 18 18Skins 271 257 351 369 337 378Skins 271 257 351 369 337 378Total 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 200 2 108Total 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 200 2 108Dairy productsB tt 3 5 4 7 6 7Dairy productsButter 3 5 4 7 6 7Ch 14 23 30 37 44 74Cheese 14 23 30 37 44 74C i 5 7 1 1 1 1Casein 5 7 1 1 1 1Ski ilk d 39 22 37 50 35 108Skim milk powder 39 22 37 50 35 108Wh l ilk d 48 38 52 11 56 159Whole milk powder 48 38 52 11 56 159O h d i d 54 45 35 58 68 71Other dairy products 54 45 35 58 68 71T l d i d 164 139 159 164 210 421Total dairy product exports 164 139 159 164 210 421O h li k 483 501 558 614 635 778Other livestock exports 483 501 558 614 635 778T l li k 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 786 4 685Total livestock exports 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 786 4 685

l i l lTotal agricultural exports 3 025 3 529 4 466 6 485 7 280 8 712a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed. g q g q g p yd Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other y , , p ,miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. h Includes meat and other live animals not listed miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. h Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately.separately.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5million.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra

Agricultural exports


TABLE 19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) Australia19A i lt l t t I d i (f b)19AgriculturalexportstoIndonesia(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmCropsCropsGrainsbarley a 15 13 9 10 7 6Grains barley a 15 13 9 10 7 6wheat b 1 416 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194 wheat b 1 416 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194other grains, oilsseeds and pulses c 5 3 15 14 12 28other grains, oilsseeds and pulses c 5 3 15 14 12 28Total grains oilseeds and pulses 1 032 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 229Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 1 032 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 229Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 163 160 247 282 220 174Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 163 160 247 282 220 174Sugar 231 420 296 302 316 378Sugar 231 420 296 302 316 378Wine 3 3 4 4 5 3Wine 3 3 4 4 5 3Total industrial crops 396 582 547 588 540 554Total industrial crops 396 582 547 588 540 554HorticultureFruit 37 36 29 33 49 53HorticultureFruit 37 36 29 33 49 53Tree nuts 0 0 0 2 1 1Vegetables 7 13 14 11 12 11gNursery 0 0 0 0 0 0yOther horticulture e 1 1 2 3 2 3

l h lTotal horticulture 45 50 45 49 65 68O h d dOther crops and crop products 10 13 15 17 24 26

lTotal crops 1 483 1 413 1 775 1 835 2 043 1 877

B f d lMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 136 169 169 156 132 245Li f d / l ht ttl 449 428 28 2 2 16 4 2Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 449 428 287 252 165 452Live breeder cattle h 4 13 3 2 9 9Live breeder cattle h 4 13 3 2 9 9Lamb 4 5 6 9 8 4Lamb 4 5 6 9 8 4Mutton 1 1 1 1 2 1Mutton 1 1 1 1 2 1Other meat and live animals i 1 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals i 1 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 594 615 466 421 316 711Total meat and live animals 594 615 466 421 316 711Wool 1 1 1 0 0 1Wool 1 1 1 0 0 1Dairy productsButter 8 9 9 4 5 7Dairy productsButter 8 9 9 4 5 7Cheese 15 22 19 19 18 18Cheese 15 22 19 19 18 18Casein 9 10 5 7 9 10Casein 9 10 5 7 9 10Skim milk powder 41 49 80 72 68 126Skim milk powder 41 49 80 72 68 126Whole milk powder 46 29 40 34 18 37Whole milk powder 46 29 40 34 18 37Other dairy products 38 15 17 19 21 21Other dairy products 38 15 17 19 21 21Total dairy product exports 158 134 169 155 140 220Total dairy product exports 158 134 169 155 140 220Other livestock exports 138 114 101 113 146 147Other livestock exports 138 114 101 113 146 147Total livestock exports 892 865 737 689 603 1 079Total livestock exports 892 865 737 689 603 1 079Total agricultural exports 2 375 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 2 956Total agricultural exports 2 375 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 2 956a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes grains not separately listeda Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed, oilseeds and pulses d Excludes cotton waste and linters e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee tea spices essential oilsoilseeds and pulses. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products g Includes buffalo h Includes dairy cattle and buffalo i Includes meat and otherand other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes buffalo. h Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. i Includes meat and other live animals not listed separatelylive animals not listed separately.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 millionNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra



TABLE 20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) A l20AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmG iGrainsb l barley a 335 284 260 316 292 352

h grain sorghum 319 70 105 219 202 16 wheat b 408 299 408 395 392 322Oilseeds canola 65 109 41 47 72 113

d cottonseed 16 31 24 31 36 31h i d il dother grains and oilseeds c 7 4 4 9 17 10

Pulses 48 33 46 41 41 39l i il d d lTotal grains, oilseeds and pulses 1 107 829 889 1 059 1 052 884

I d i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton d 39 31 48 63 28 32Sugar 192 190 194 211 198 243Wine 54 43 44 45 42 41Total industrial crops 285 264 286 319 268 316pHorticultureFruit 70 61 70 59 63 61Tree nuts 15 17 16 20 23 19Vegetables 48 33 46 41 41 39gNursery 6 4 4 3 3 2yOther horticulture e 4 5 7 6 4 9Total horticulture 144 120 142 129 133 130 144 120 142 129 133 130Other crops and crop products 61 47 54 47 50 40p p p 61 47 54 47 50 40Total crops 1 597 1 260 1 371 1 553 1 503 1 370p 1 597 1 260 1 371 1 553 1 503 1 370Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 14 15 16 20 15 15e eede /s aug te catt e g 14 15 16 20 15 15Lamb 67 52 60 63 54 76Lamb 67 52 60 63 54 76Mutton 39 24 26 24 17 29Mutton 39 24 26 24 17 29Other meat and live animals h 6 3 3 3 3 4Other meat and live animals h 6 3 3 3 3 4Total meat and live animals 2 193 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570Total meat and live animals 2 193 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570WoolGreasy 2 4 9 12 8 1Wool Greasy 2 4 9 12 8 1Semi‐processed 12 12 23 26 21 10Semi‐processed 12 12 23 26 21 10Skins 3 1 1 2 1 2Skins 3 1 1 2 1 2Total 17 17 33 39 30 12Total 17 17 33 39 30 12Dairy productsButter 11 2 6 9 4 2Dairy productsButter 11 2 6 9 4 2Cheese 399 358 356 423 415 343Cheese 399 358 356 423 415 343Casein 44 26 22 21 17 20Casein 44 26 22 21 17 20Skim milk powder 22 3 2 2 5 17Skim milk powder 22 3 2 2 5 17Whole milk powder 0 0 0 1 0 0Whole milk powder 0 0 0 1 0 0Other dairy products 47 46 38 45 66 38Other dairy products 47 46 38 45 66 38Total dairy product exports 522 436 423 500 507 420Total dairy product exports 522 436 423 500 507 420Other livestock exports 437 320 337 302 293 276Other livestock exports 437 320 337 302 293 276Total livestock exports 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499 2 358 2 278Total livestock exports 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499 2 358 2 278Total agricultural exports 4 765 3 808 3 937 4 052 3 861 3 649Total agricultural exports 4 765 3 808 3 937 4 052 3 861 3 649I l d th i i l t f lt b I l d th i i l t f h t fl I l d i d il da Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds t t l li t d d E l d tt t d li t Oth h ti lt i l d i l ff t inot separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices,

l l d h ll h l l d l d b d k d l d b ff l fessential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Excludes breeding stock and includes buffalo for feeder/slaughter purposes. h Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra; ; p g ,




TABLE 21 Agricultural exports to Republic of Korea (fob) Australia21A i lt l t t R bli f K (f b)21AgriculturalexportstoRepublicofKorea(fob)Australia2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14

g p p ( )2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarmCCropsGrains barley a 85 54 75 94 87 110 barley a wheat b 351 219 368 628 449 310 wheat b corn (maize) 10 4 4 12 20 23( )Oilseeds cottonseed 2 5 16 26 37 30 cottonseed 2 5 16 26 37 30other grains and oilseeds c 2 2 1 0 2 6g 2 2 1 2 6Pulses 21 70 51 36 74 26Pulses 21 70 51 36 74 26Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 383 353 514 797 668 504Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 383 353 514 797 668 504Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 22 62 58 120 119 130Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 22 62 58 120 119 130Sugar 425 685 424 521 475 332Sugar 425 685 424 521 475 332Wine 11 9 7 9 10 8Wine 11 9 7 9 10 8Total industrial crops 458 755 490 650 605 469Total industrial crops 458 755 490 650 605 469HorticultureFruit 4 4 4 5 7 6HorticultureFruit 4 4 4 5 7 6Tree nuts 1 1 1 3 2 4Tree nuts 1 1 1 3 2 4Vegetables 3 4 8 9 7 5Vegetables 3 4 8 9 7 5Other horticulture e 3 2 2 2 3 5Other horticulture e 3 2 2 2 3 5Total horticulture 11 10 15 19 19 19Total horticulture 11 10 15 19 19 19Other crops and crop products 106 114 119 117 131 144Other crops and crop products 106 114 119 117 131 144Total crops 957 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 137Total crops 957 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 137Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 532 535 656 572 641 844Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 532 535 656 572 641 844Lamb 8 10 13 15 14 24Lamb 8 10 13 15 14 24Mutton 4 4 5 4 4 6Mutton 4 4 5 4 4 6Other meat and live animals g 1 1 2 1 1 1Other meat and live animals g 1 1 2 1 1 1Total meat and live animals 544 549 676 592 659 875Total meat and live animals 544 549 676 592 659 875Wool 37 41 36 43 44 61Wool 37 41 36 43 44 61Dairy productsB tt 12 13 16 9 7 6Dairy productsButter 12 13 16 9 7 6Ch 40 28 37 31 30 26Cheese 40 28 37 31 30 26C i 5 3 2 2 2 1Casein 5 3 2 2 2 1Ski ilk d 22 18 23 23 19 27Skim milk powder 22 18 23 23 19 27Wh l ilk d 3 6 2 3Whole milk powder 5 3 6 7 2 3O h d i dOther dairy products 28 19 25 29 17 19T l d i dTotal dairy product exports 111 84 109 103 77 82h l kOther livestock exports 94 93 108 125 100 118l l kTotal livestock exports 785 768 930 862 879 1136

T t l i lt l tTotal agricultural exports 1 742 2 000 2 068 2 446 2 303 2 273a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds not separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly nursery, coffee, tea, spices, p y y y, , , p ,essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes meat and other animals not listed separately.p g p yNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberra


TABLE 22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) A l22AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmCropsFarm

G iCropsGrains 1 0 0 0 1 2l dOilseeds 0 10 0 20 50 66

Pulses 4 3 4 5 4 5Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 4 13 4 25 55 73Industrial cropsSugar 78 68 92 135 66 60

pg

Wine 762 627 524 493 483 472Total industrial crops 841 695 616 628 549 533pHorticultureFruit 60 67 33 33 25 3160 67 33 33 25 31Tree nuts 20 22 12 15 28 4820 22 12 15 28 48Vegetables 8 7 6 5 5 6g 8 7 6 5 5 6Nursery 4 3 2 2 2 2y 4 3 2 2 2 2Other horticulture a 18 14 16 15 19 2818 14 16 15 19 28Total horticulture 109 112 69 69 79 115Total horticulture 109 112 69 69 79 115Other crops and crop products 174 167 168 142 191 258Other crops and crop products 174 167 168 142 191 258Total crops 1 128 987 857 864 873 979Total crops 1 128 987 857 864 873 979Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 225 817 704 896 961 1 375Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 225 817 704 896 961 1 375Lamb 354 303 335 305 295 399Lamb 354 303 335 305 295 399Mutton 35 32 38 21 34 49Mutton 35 32 38 21 34 49Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823Total meat and live animals 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823WoolGreasy 7 9 11 8 7 4Wool Greasy 7 9 11 8 7 4Semi‐processed 1 3 3 3 2 2Semi‐processed 1 3 3 3 2 2Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 8 12 14 11 9 7Total 8 12 14 11 9 7Dairy productsButter 19 10 3 7 13 1Dairy productsButter 19 10 3 7 13 1Cheese 60 20 12 3 11 9Cheese 60 20 12 3 11 9Casein 29 23 13 7 9 4Casein 29 23 13 7 9 4Whole milk powder 8 9 4 4 5 0Whole milk powder 8 9 4 4 5 0Other dairy products 10 13 18 15 16 11Other dairy products 10 13 18 15 16 11Total dairy product exports 127 75 50 35 53 24Total dairy product exports 127 75 50 35 53 24Oth li t k t 125 116 125 115 136 176Other livestock exports 125 116 125 115 136 176T t l li t k t 1 875 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030Total livestock exports 1 875 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030Total agricultural exports 3 003 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 3 009Total agricultural exports 3 003 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 3 009Oth h ti lt i l d i l ff t i ti l il d th i ll h ti lt l d ta Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.

b l d d l l l d lb Includes meat and live animals not listed separately.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Canberrap g



Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia23VolumeoffisheriesproductsexportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

k k k k k kkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFishLi 1 1 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 Live 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 Tuna 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 Tuna 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0Salmonids 6 6 4 0 6 4 5 8 2 6 1 8 Salmonids 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8Swordfish 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 4 Swordfish 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4Whi i Whiting 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1g Other fish 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 Other fish 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4Total fish 26 8 21 7 22 7 22 0 17 8 18 6Total fish 26.8 21.7 22.7 22.0 17.8 18.6C t d llCrustaceans and molluscs Rocklobster 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 Rocklobster 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0Prawns 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1 Prawns 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1Abalone 3 3 3 6 3 4 3 1 2 8 2 7 Abalone 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7S ll Scallops 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5p Crabs 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 Crabs 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4Other crustaceans and molluscs 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 7 2 1 1 6 Other crustaceans and molluscs 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6Total crustaceans and molluscs 21 2 19 2 19 6 18 4 17 5 20 3Total crustaceans and molluscs 21.2 19.2 19.6 18.4 17.5 20.3Total edible 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3 38.9Total edible 48.0 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3 38.9a Includes prepared and preserveda Includes prepared and preserved.Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Fish Live 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0 30.7 34.2 Tuna 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7 162.6 135.5 Salmonids 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8 25.4 17.4 Swordfish 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 Whiting 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.5 1.4 0.2 Other fish 55.7 61.6 58.1 46.2 34.2 34.2Total fish 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.2 225.4

Rocklobster 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3 590.3 Prawns 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8 101.0 Abalone 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3 186.0 170.0 Scallops 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3 10.8 13.6 Crabs 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2 5.5Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4 40.2 32.5Total crustaceans and molluscs 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3 744.2 912.9Total edible 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3 1 138.4

Marine fats and oils 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0 9.1 Fish meal 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 Pearls a 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6 151.5 144.4 Ornamental fish 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.0 Other non‐edible 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5 9.7Total non‐edible 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1 172.8 165.9Total fisheries products 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8 1 175.2 1 304.3

24Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)Australia

Edible

Crustaceans and molluscs

Non‐edible

a Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia2525 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia25VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishEdible aFishTuna 38 0 39 9 45 6 40 8 46 9 50 1 Tuna 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9 50.1 Salmonids 10.9 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9 14.2Hake 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5 Hake 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5Swordfish 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 Swordfish 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2T thfi h 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 Toothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Herrings 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9 Herrings 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9Shark 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 Shark 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7Other fish 77 2 83 3 83 1 86 6 92 8 90 0 Other fish 77.2 83.3 83.1 86.6 92.8 90.0Total fish b 133.4 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5 160.8Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 26 7 34 5 32 6 37 5 34 8 38 7Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8 38.7L b t 0 5 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 8 1 0 Lobster 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 Crabs 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 Crabs 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1Mussels 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6 Mussels 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6Scallops 2 2 2 8 2 6 3 0 3 1 3 5 Scallops 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.5S id d t 16 8 16 0 15 2 17 0 19 9 23 2 Squid and octopus 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9 23.2q p Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8 Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.9 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8Total crustaceans and molluscs 59 9 67 2 64 7 69 8 67 9 76 7Total crustaceans and molluscs 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8 67.9 76.7T t l dibl b 193 3 207 4 211 8 214 2 228 4 237 5Total edible abc 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.4 237.5a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish or crustaceans p p p g pand molluscs.and molluscs.Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia26ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mEdible aFishEdible aFishT 223 3 169 3 200 8 205 5 258 2 296 1 Tuna 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2 296.1 Salmonids 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8 167.5 Salmonids 100.0 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8 167.5Hake 31 0 26 1 27 2 20 9 23 4 19 5 Hake 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4 19.5Swordfish 1 5 1 8 1 5 1 2 1 7 1 4 Swordfish 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4T hfi h Toothfish 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2 3.0 Herrings 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5 Herrings 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5Shark 4 5 5 6 4 4 4 0 4 6 5 5 Shark 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5Other fish 455 5 455 0 443 7 459 6 480 0 507 5 Other fish 455.5 455.0 443.7 459.6 480.0 507.5Total fish b 824.6 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5 1 004.9Total fish bCrustaceans and molluscsPrawns 270 7 298 7 291 0 350 9 304 8 495 1Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8 495.1L b Lobster 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3 22.4 Crabs 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3 Crabs 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3Mussels 12 0 9 3 10 2 11 7 17 1 19 1 Mussels 12.0 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1 19.1Scallops 29 9 33 5 34 5 43 6 41 1 52 9 Scallops 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1 52.9

d d Squid and octopus 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7 114.5q p Other crustaceans and molluscs 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 43.9 Other crustaceans and molluscs 70.1 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 43.9Total crustaceans and molluscs 458 1 494 2 503 5 585 1 533 4 776 2Total crustaceans and molluscs 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4 776.2T l dibl b 1 279 4 1 243 9 1 271 3 1 373 8 1 427 7 1 781 3Total edible abc 1 279.4 1 243.9 1 271.3 1 373.8 1 427.7 1 781.3Non‐ediblePearls d 320 6 170 8 166 9 138 2 105 4 102 1Non ediblePearls d 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2 105.4 102.1Fish meal 41 9 51 9 46 7 34 2 43 3 43 2Fish meal 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2 43.3 43.2

l fi hOrnamental fish 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.5Marine fats and oils 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1Marine fats and oils 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1Other marine products 24 9 14 9 9 9 17 1 29 0 30 4Other marine products 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.1 29.0 30.4Total non edible 427 1 269 0 258 4 232 8 220 7 220 3Total non‐edible 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7 220.3Total fisheries products 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6Total fisheries products 1 706.5 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6a Includes prepared and preserved b Includes live value c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish ora Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish or

t d ll dM i l i tcrustaceans and molluscs. d Mainly re‐imports.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries trade

TABLE 27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Hong Kong 570 530 426 479 317 209Vietnam 3 4 8 60 293 566Japan 302 215 226 255 236 192China 30 43 143 59 45 37Singapore 44 37 41 42 31 34United States 65 49 36 23 18 22Taiwan 54 33 30 18 10 14Thailand 7 9 16 18 9 8New Zealand 9 17 10 10 9 14Malaysia 13 9 13 8 8 10Indonesia 5 7 9 6 7 10

Hong Kong 201 138 145 97 54 75Japan 64 50 43 44 33 27United States 22 15 8 22 21 19

Thailand 368 322 340 362 400 417New Zealand 207 212 210 197 206 207China 152 173 186 231 196 342Vietnam 167 153 162 174 163 232Malaysia 65 63 71 73 81 98United States 49 37 40 45 52 56Indonesia 31 39 28 36 51 73Taiwan 33 37 39 39 48 44South Africa 36 36 33 32 36 51Denmark 23 30 28 31 35 32Norway 24 24 19 25 32 45Other 20 27 25 27 30 45

27ValueofAustralianfisheryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustralia

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Exports

Imports a

Edible (including live)

Non‐edible

Edible (excluding live)


Forest exports

TABLE 28 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

Roundwood ’000 m3 986 1 377 1 638 1 806 1 516 2 363

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 283 322 265 198 207 268 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 18 13 13 13 3 5 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 40 37 39 26 20 73 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 14 16 30 15 7 25 Total ’000 m3 355 387 348 252 237 371Railway sleepers ’000 m3 9 9 8 8 8 17

Veneers ’000 m3 86 90 119 106 52 64 Plywood ’000 m3 53 24 7 18 36 36 Particleboard ’000 m3 17 9 5 4 2 na Hardboard b ’000 m3 2 1 2 2 2 3 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 181 130 115 79 52 na Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 8 2 5 5 1 1 Total ’000 m3 345 256 253 214 146 180Paper and paperboard Newsprint kt 2 6 19 30 72 85 Printing and writing kt 112 146 84 132 139 153 Household and sanitary kt 38 31 39 26 12 20 Packaging and industrial kt 617 708 887 933 906 950 Total kt 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 127 1 207Recovered paper kt 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506 1 449Pulp kt 22 18 31 1 0 0Woodchips cd kt 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 806 4 776

Quantity

Sawnwood a

Wood‐based panels

28VolumeofforestryproductexportsAustralia

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.na Not available.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest exports

TABLE 29 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 101 138 198 175 155 292

Softwood roughsawn 70 76 67 55 61 75 Softwoods dressed 9 7 5 3 2 3 Hardwood roughsawn 37 33 34 23 20 22 Hardwood dressed 9 10 10 7 6 7 Total 125 125 115 88 90 108Railway sleepers 4 2 3 3 3 3Miscellaneous forest products a 51 59 65 59 57 66

Veneers 36 44 52 51 24 29 Plywood 4 3 2 2 4 3 Particleboard 7 3 2 1 1 7 Hardboard b 1 1 2 2 2 2 Medium‐density fibreboard c 52 45 39 26 19 38 Softboard and other fibreboards 1 1 1 1 0 0 Total 101 97 98 83 51 80

Newsprint 2 6 13 15 36 59 Printing and writing 128 143 88 120 117 139 Household and sanitary 111 97 94 64 33 49 Packaging and industrial 364 404 552 518 526 605 Total 606 649 747 717 712 853Paper manufactures d 106 102 112 134 134 133Recovered paper 235 228 240 240 230 241Pulp 18 13 11 1 0 0Woodchips 997 856 884 729 611 768Total 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 042 2 543a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium‐density fibreboard are confidential. d Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

Value

Sawnwood

Paper and paperboard

Wood‐based panels

29Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia


Forest imports

TABLE 30 Volume of forest products imports Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2012–13 2013–14

Roundwood ’000 m3 1 1 1 1 1 1Sawnwood a Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 256 293 290 239 247 271 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 279 367 468 470 443 449 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 51 43 43 46 41 41 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 43 45 45 36 28 25 Total ’000 m3 628 748 846 791 759 786

Veneers ’000 m3 21 15 17 15 13 9 Plywood ’000 m3 199 228 278 293 278 287 Particleboard ’000 m3 69 64 72 68 72 na Hardboard ’000 m3 24 33 49 69 60 86 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 88 70 58 95 80 na Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 11 6 7 7 6 5 Total ’000 m3 412 416 480 547 508 na

Newsprint kt 198 191 222 121 85 75 Printing and writing kt 1 122 1 167 1 237 1 174 1 155 1 172 Household and sanitary kt 82 101 114 118 159 123 Packaging and industrial kt 254 285 314 333 385 357 Total kt 1 656 1 744 1 886 1 746 1 783 1 727Recovered paper kt 3 3 2 3 4 5Pulp kt 345 265 233 256 263 297Woodchips kt 1 1 1 1 1 2

30VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustralia

Wood‐based panels


Quantity

a Excludes railway sleepers. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 31 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 1 0 1 1 1 1

Softwood roughsawn 134 140 135 105 100 111 Softwood dressed 168 200 248 248 246 281 Hardwood roughsawn 49 39 40 44 41 46 Hardwood dressed 55 50 50 51 35 31 Total 405 429 473 448 423 468Miscellaneous forest products a 651 603 688 741 734 907

Veneers 28 22 21 21 19 15 Plywood 145 138 170 183 184 210 Particleboard 27 20 21 26 27 na Hardboard 26 30 40 54 48 72 Medium‐density fibreboard 41 37 34 36 32 37 Softboard and other fibreboards 4 3 3 3 2 3 Total 271 250 289 323 311 290

Newsprint 173 158 176 91 58 49 Printing and writing 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151 1 194 Household and sanitary 154 164 185 187 244 208 Packaging and industrial 481 499 515 543 590 654 Total 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043 2 105Paper manufactures b 590 563 557 486 446 537Recovered paper 1 1 0 1 1 2Pulp 263 178 180 164 154 203Woodchips 2 1 2 2 3 3Total 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202 4 116 5 089

Value

Sawnwood

Wood‐based panels


31ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. na Not available.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


TABLE 32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries a

STATISTICS

32 Value of Australian forestry products trade, by selected countries a32ValueofAustralianforestryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesa2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–142008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mExports bChina 390 394 544 534 474 naExports bChina 390 394 544 534 474 naH K 51 68 42 39 16Hong Kong 51 68 42 39 16 naJapan 860 774 745 579 394 naJapan 860 5 5 9 39 aKorea, Rep. of 103 48 40 40 33 naKorea, Rep. of 103 48 40 40 33 naMalaysia 78 82 106 112 75 naMalaysia 78 82 106 112 75 naN Z l d 324 319 314 306 268New Zealand 324 319 314 306 268 naTaiwan 77 88 79 68 68 naTaiwan 77 88 79 68 68 naImportsChi 611 624 680 797 910ImportsChina 611 624 680 797 910 naFinland 274 171 143 120 205 naFinlandGermany 167 178 183 147 134 naGermany 167 178 183 147 134 naIndonesia 374 351 332 342 313 naIndonesia 374 351 332 342 313 naM l i 215 217 228 233 223Malaysia 215 217 228 233 223 nayNew Zealand 744 703 715 634 556 naNew Zealand 744 703 715 634 556 naUnited States 320 313 285 297 303 naUnited States 320 313 285 297 303 naa Value of wood products trade to selected countries cannot be reported for 2013 14 due to confidentiality restrictions fora Value of wood products trade to selected countries cannot be reported for 2013–14 due to confidentiality restrictions for

d hi d d i b l f d d l d i l d dwoodchip exports and some paper product imports. b Value of wood products exports to selected countries may exclude data where confidentiality restrictions apply. na Not available.where confidentiality restrictions apply. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Forestry trade


ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 4 no. 2 June quarter 2014)The selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

Full reports can be downloaded from agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications. For more information contact [email protected].

Research reports

Drivers of practice change in land management in Australian agriculture: synthesis report—stages I, II and III

Research report 14.5

Publication date: 26 June 2014Authors: Robert Kancans, Saan Ecker, Alixaandrea Duncan, Nyree Stenekes and Halina Zobel-Zubrzycka

The Sustainable Resource Management Division, Department of Agriculture, (through the Caring for our Country initiative) commissioned the report. It focuses on the key factors landholders consider when making decisions to adopt specific land management practices.

ABARES National Wood Processing Survey, 2012–13


Publication date: 8 July 2014Authors: Mijo Gavran, Kevin Burns, Beau Hug, Ian Frakes and Mihir Gupta

Between September 2013 and March 2014, ABARES surveyed Australian wood processors to obtain up-to-date mill-specific data on mill inputs, production and employment. ABARES and Forest and Wood Products Australia jointly funded the survey. It updates the 2010–11 national wood processing survey.

175

Report extracts


Australian beef: financial performance of beef cattle producing farms, 2011–12 to 2013–14


Publication date: 19 August 2014Authors: Therese Thompson and Peter Martin

This report, commissioned by Meat & Livestock Australia, presents detailed financial performance and production information for Australian beef cattle producing farms.

Experimental estimates of total cash receipts and total cash costs at the statistical local area level—broadacre farms, 2010–11


Publication date: 21 August 2014Author: Mark Chambers

This technical report examines application of the small area estimation statistical technique to broadacre farm survey data. This technique can provide finer estimates of farm performance and characteristics than the original survey. The report demonstrates the potential application and value of the technique.

Australian lamb: financial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms, 2011–12 to 2013–14


Publication date: 26 August 2014Authors: Astrid Dahl, Peter Martin and Emily Gray

This report, commissioned by Meat & Livestock Australia, presents detailed financial performance and production information for Australian slaughter lamb producing farms. It expands on results published in Agricultural commodities, March quarter 2014, and on Australian farm survey results 2011–12 to 2013–14, released in April 2014.

Irrigated agriculture in the southern Murray–Darling Basin: Murrumbidgee, Murray and Goulburn–Broken regions, 2006–07 to 2012–13


Publication date: 3 September 2014Author: Dale Ashton

The report analyses farm financial and physical performance data collected from irrigation farms in the southern Murray–Darling Basin (Murrumbidgee, Murray and Goulburn–Broken regions) from 2006–07 to 2012–13. The three regions account for around 62 per cent of irrigation farms in the Murray–Darling Basin and produce a variety of irrigated crops. The report covers key farm performance measures, water trading, farm investment and irrigation technology.

Report extracts

176


Productivity in the Australian dairy industry: pursuing new sources of growth


Publication date: 4 September 2014Authors: Dale Ashton, Clara Cuevas-Cubria, Robert Leith and Tom Jackson

ABARES assessed dairy farm performance by analysing farm survey data and gathering information and views from dairy farmers and others at regional workshops. The results highlighted key performance trends in the Australian dairy industry, productivity growth at industry and farm level by region, drivers of productivity growth and constraints to future growth.

Australian grains: financial performance of grain producing farms, 2011–12 to 2013–14


Publication date: 10 September 2014Authors: Peter Martin, Emily Gray and Therese Thompson

This report, commissioned by the Grains Research and Development Corporation, presents detailed regional financial performance and production information for Australian grain producing farms. It expands on results published in Agricultural commodities, March quarter 2014, and on Australian farm survey results 2011–12 to 2013–14, released in April 2014.

Production costs in the Australian grains industry, 2010–11 to 2012–13


Publication date: 11 September 2014Author: Haydn Valle

The Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) commissioned ABARES to collect survey data for the three financial years to 2012–13 to separate the costs of grain production from other farm enterprise costs. This report provides a summary of the results at a national level and by GRDC region (Western, Northern and Southern regions).

Report extracts

177


Technical reports

Australian Plantation Statistics 2014 update

Technical report 14.2

Publication date: 10 September 2014Author: Mijo Gavran

Since 1993 the National Plantation Inventory (NPI) has collected data and reported on plantations established primarily for timber production in Australia. This update is published every year between the five-yearly comprehensive spatial reports. Annual updates assist strategic forest industry planning and decision-making by presenting information on total plantation area, new planting and ownership. The update includes data on plantation areas for softwood and hardwood plantation types and species by NPI regions and by state and territory.

Other reports

Land use map of Australia, interim version 5, 2010–11Publication date: 8 July 2014

This is a partially validated land use dataset. It is the latest in a series of national scale land use datasets at 1:2 500 000 scale already available for many of the years between 1992–93 and 2005–06. It is based on non-agricultural and agricultural land use source datasets, including from the National Forest Inventory and the ABS Agricultural Census. The last national scale land use dataset was produced in 2005–06. These datasets are used for broadscale land use assessments and for strategic planning and evaluation.

Beef Producer Input Price Index—summary of resultsPublication date: 14 August 2014

Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) commissioned ABARES to construct the Beef Producer Input Price Index (BPIPI) to inform beef producers and industry decision-makers on movements in farm costs. ABARES created separate indexes for northern Australian and southern Australian beef producers and updates them quarterly. ABARES provided the first BPIPI to MLA in April 2014.

Australian crop reportPublication date: 9 September 2014

This quarterly report provides a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a state-by-state summary of seasonal conditions.

Weekly Australian climate, water and agricultural updatePublication date: Every Thursday

This weekly report provides subscribers with access to up-to-date climate, water and commodity information.

Report extracts

178


179

ABARES contacts

Executive Director Karen Schneider [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Agricultural Commodities and TradeAssistant Secretary and Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017Outlook Engagement Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287Agricultural Risks Management Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Farm Analysis and BiosecurityAssistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487Infrastructure and Water Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009Farm Survey and Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069Biosecurity Edwina Heyhoe [email protected] (02) 6272 2109Invasives and Social Sciences Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Fisheries, Forestry and LandAssistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki ilona.stobutzki@agriculture .gov.au (02) 6272 4277Domestic Fisheries and Marine James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388International Fisheries and Data James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929Data and Land John Sims [email protected] (02) 6272 5732

mailto:[email protected]












mailto:ilona.stobutzki@agriculture .gov.au









ABARES contacts

180

Agricultural commodities September quarter 2014 was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES. Editors: Jane Wiles, Emma Rossiter and Julia Church

Editing, Production, Online and Design John Wilson [email protected] (02) 6272 3811

Library Resources Karen Kidd [email protected] (02) 6272 4548

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010





agriculture.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email [email protected]

Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, June 2013• Agricultural commodities, September 2013• Agricultural commodities, December 2013• Agricultural commodities, March 2014• Agricultural commodities, June 2014

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

ABA

1633

_081

4

Agricultural commodities - September quarter...

Documents

Transcript of Agricultural commodities - September quarter...