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Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak Mallawaarachchi
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Transcript of Agricultural adaptation during times of change - Thilak Mallawaarachchi
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Agricultural adaptation during times of change
Thilak Mallawaarachchi, David Adamson, John Quiggin and Peggy Schrobback
Risk and Sustainable Management Group, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4067
Paper presented to the CCRSPI Conference 2011, The National Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries, February 15-17 2011, Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).
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Adaptation• Adaptation to climate change
– finding ways to live with scarcer water, higher peak temperatures, higher sea levels and weather patterns at odds with those under which today’s settled patterns of farming developed
The Economist, Nov 25, 2010
Photo credit: Anthea McClintock, Jemalong, NSW, 151210
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Agricultural Adaptation
• Crop adaptation – sole basis of agriculture*– The relationships between the environmental
factors and the growth response of plants– Matters of ecology, with elements of geography,
physiology, genetics, meteorology, and agronomy
• Climate risks include issues beyond farm– Linked through markets and trade, and social
imperatives such as food security and poverty*Wilsie, CP & Shaw, RH 1954, 'Crop Adaptation and Climate', in AG Norman (ed.), Advances in Agronomy, Academic Press, vol. Volume 6, pp. 199-252.
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Climate risks• Increasing uncertainty
– Affects the set of available options– And the nature of outcomes of decisions
• Potential payoffs are dictated by knowledge and endowment
Faced with the prospect of learning, increasing uncertainty leads to a preference for more flexible strategies
ProblemHow to find the set of flexible and efficient strategies when the distribution of the states of nature is widening
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Farm sector performance19
69-7
0
1971
-72
1973
-74
1975
-76
1977
-78
1979
-80
1981
-82
1983
-84
1985
-86
1987
-88
1989
-90
1991
-92
1993
-94
1995
-96
1997
-98
1999
-00
2001
-02
2003
-04
2005
-06
2007
-08
2009
-10
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Agricultural Returns (2010 Values)
Gross Value of ProductionFarm CostsNet ReturnTerms of Trade
Source: ABARES
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TFP and TOT
Source: Shen, Grey & Mullen (2010)
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Dairy: Less Cows But Increased Output
1965-66
1969-70
1973-74
1977-78
1981-82
1985-86
1989-90
1993-94
1997-98
2001-02
2005-060
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Dairy Statistics
Dairy CowsMilk (L/Cow)
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History matters
• Path dependence• Explanations for path dependence
– increasing returns (size economies)– self-reinforcement (complementarity)– positive feedbacks (early-mover advantage)– lock-in (popular choices, capital fixity)
... and more ...
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1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Real Value of Australian Agricultural Output by Commodity
LivestockCereal for grainMilkWoolVegetablesFruit and nutsCottonOtherGrapesSugarcaneOilseedsHay and PastureGrain legumes
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1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Fruit and nutsCereal for grainLivestock
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Broadacre Farm Performance over time
Sheng et at 2011
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Economies of size and technology
Sheng et at 2011
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Issues for exploration
• Path dependence of farmers’ technical choices for managing climate risk when farmers have difficulty in separating climate change from natural variability
• Adopting sub-optimal decisions in the interim in adapting to change
• Understanding the role of externalities in defining sub-optimality for society
• Linking agroecological and institutional innovation for optimal decisions under uncertainty
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Global climate change
Strategic planning
Global effects
National effectsSectoral effects
Agricultural systems
Economic growth
Population
Technology
Governance
1
2
3
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Schematic representation of methods used to combine crop and climate models.
Challinor A J et al. J. Exp. Bot. 2009;60:2775-2789
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Farming system
Plot/paddock
Regional/ Landscape
Cross-scale interactionsover time
Represent uncertainty as states of nature and their range of probabilities
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Understanding the full picture
It is argued that the Indian peasants in Chiapas, Mexico are backward, they produce only two tons of maize per hectare as against six on modern Mexican plantations. But this is only part of the picture. The modern plantation produces six tonnes per hectare and that’s it. But the Indian grows a mixed crop. Amongst his corn stalks, that also serve as support for climbing beans, he grows squash and pumpkins, sweet potatoes, tomatoes and all sorts of vegetables, fruit and medicinal herbs. From the same hectare he also feeds his cattle and chickens. He easily produces more than 15 tons of food per hectare and all without commercial fertilisers or pesticides and no assistance from banks or governments or transnational corporations.
Jose A. Lutzenberger, former Minister of the Environment for Brazil.
http://www.afgventuregroup.com/dispatches/afg-venture-group-newsletter/october-2010-primary-industries-with-a-focus-on-agriculture-and-agribusiness/
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Decline of the Sheep Industry?
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
20406080
100120140160180200
Australian Sheep Numbers (Million)
ACTTasWASAQLDVICNSW