Agri-Commodities Daily Report 0.79 -2.70 -1.61...
Transcript of Agri-Commodities Daily Report 0.79 -2.70 -1.61...
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Content News in Brief
Sugar
Oilseeds
Edible Oils
Spices
Cotton
As on 30 -Sep-2016
Commodities Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly
Cardamom 2.13 2.01 0.37 42.38
Maize 2.10 6.50 14.77 12.59
Kapas 1.24 1.12 2.04 0.63
Mentha 1.06 -1.98 -3.16 -3.56
Soybean 0.90 1.06 -2.15 -20.36
Guar seed 0.85 -2.15 4.77 -6.22
Mustard 0.79 -2.70 -1.61 -7.62
GuarGum 0.76 -4.47 7.80 -18.75
Cotton 0.51 -1.93 0.40 23.00
Jeera 0.06 0.87 -3.86 6.59
CPO -0.02 0.14 7.34 37.72
Ref Soy Oil -0.02 -0.02 2.04 2.41
Sugar -0.09 -0.34 -0.49 25.48
Turmeric -0.75 4.39 -1.78 -10.40
Coriander -1.07 0.48 -5.99 -32.03
% Change Commodity Exchange Contract Trend
Spice Complex
Jeera NCDEX Oct Sideways
Turmeric NCDEX Oct Up
Coriander NCDEX Oct Up
Cardamom MCX Oct Down
Edible Oil Complex
Soybean NCDEX Oct Up
Mustard Seed NCDEX Oct Sideways
Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Oct Up
CPO MCX Oct Sideways
Others
Sugar NCDEX Oct Down
Kapas NCDEX Apr’17 Down
Cotton MCX Oct Down
Cotton Oilseed Cake NCDEX Dec Down
Wheat NCDEX Oct Sideways
MaizeKhrf NCDEX Oct Sideways
Barley NCDEX Oct Sideways
Mentha Oil MCX Oct Down
Guar Gum NCDEX Oct Sideways
Guar Seed 10 NCDEX Oct Sideways
Technical Trend – 03-Oct-2016 Agri-Commodity Heat Chart
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
News in brief Seasonal rainfall (01 Jun – 29 Sep)
(Source: IMD) Monsoon in India officially ends; Rainfall at 3% below LPA The four-month-long (June-September) southwest monsoon came to an end on Friday with India Meteorological Department (IMD) stating that overall rainfall across the country had been 3% below the benchmark Long Period Average (LPA) and so in ‘normal’ category. Rainfall in the 96-104% range of LPA is considered normal. In the last two years, the country had received ‘deficient’ monsoon rains. The quantum of rainfall received during monsoon session was below the IMD’s earlier prediction of cumulative rains of 106% of LPA. Met officials said the monsoon has not withdrawn entirely from the north region which is about two weeks behind the schedule. “Heavy to very heavy rain is expected over Vidarbha, north Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan & Goa and Telangana,” the Met department stated in its prediction for the next couple of days. With the exception of Punjab, Gujarat region and coastal Karnataka where rainfall has been ‘deficient’, most of the regions across the country have so far received ‘normal’ or ‘excess’ monsoon rains. (Source: FE)
Sugar prices at 3-year high ahead of festivals, new month Sugar prices soared to trade at fresh three-year high surging by up to Rs 50 to Rs 4,150 per quintal at the wholesale market in the national capital today following increased demand ahead of festive season amid tight supplies from mills. Marketmen said increased offtake by bulk consumers ahead of auspicious "Navratras", beginning tomorrow supported by tight supplies from mills, mainly lifted the sweetener prices to trade at fresh three-year highs. Moreover, reports of bullish trend overseas and reports of lower domestic output too gave push to the surging prices, they added. (Source: PTI)
Rabobank sees ICE raw sugar averaging at 18 cents/pound in 2017 Raw sugar prices that have been on the bull side this year may see a correction next year and prices may average to 18 cents per pound in 2017, Kelvin Chow, Analyst with Rabobank, said. "While we say this we have to be aware that firstly there is huge money lying there ready to be liquidated. That would pull downwards," Chow told Cogencis. Talk of US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates would dampen the appetite for
hedge funds to reduce their positions and "rush for dollars". "They (hedge funds) would start liquidating their positions then. And we see them chasing the market down. That is when we will see prices correcting," he said. Anticipation of higher sugar output in India in 2017-18 may also dent global raw sugar prices, he said. For 2016-17, Chow sees India's sugar output to fall to 23.3 mln tn, from 27.0 mln tn a year ago. Tight supply situation could lead to sugar imports in the country, he said. (Source: Cogencis) With sugar prices up, cane farmers hope for better year The sugarcane department has maintained that there was slump in the sugar market for the last three years. As a result cane prices were not raised. Farmers had to face economic hardships as sugar mill owners were unable to pay their dues on time. With sugar prices going up farmers are hopeful that this might be an indication of better business this year. According to Rajendra Singh, state secretary, Bhartiya Kisan Union, "This year the sugar market is looking up. We are happy and hopeful that sugarcane prices will also go up and in the upcoming season payment will be on time." Singh added, "We have raised our demand that sugarcane prices be increased from Rs 280 to 350 per quintal." (Source: TOI)
For first time ever, Maharashtra may beat Gujarat in cotton production Cotton ginners in Maharashtra are expecting a good season ahead, though cotton arrivals are likely to be delayed by a fortnight because of incessant rains in the Marathwada region. This time, though there have been very heavy rains in the Marathwada region, the crop should not be affected and perhaps for the first time, and Maharashtra may overtake Gujarat in terms of production at about 1 crore bales, Pradeep Jain, president, Khandesh Gin/Press Factory Owners Association, said. Usually, Maharashtra produces around 60-70 lakh bales and around 20 lakh bales are sold to Gujarat. But this time, there could be a bumper production because of the good rains, he said. (Source: FE)
Government to further import 1.70 lakh tonnes of pulses The government today approved further import of 1.70 lakh tonnes of masoor and tur dals for buffer stock to boost domestic supplies and check prices. Besides, cooperatives NCCF and Nafed have been asked to sell tur and urad through their outlets in cities other than Delhi Rs 105 per kg and Rs 120 per kg, respectively. The Centre has also decided to provide milled pulses to states for further distribution in the retail market. These decisions were taken in the Price Stabilization Fund Management Committee meeting, chaired by Consumer Affairs Secretary Hem Pande here today. In the meeting, it was informed the number of centres has been increased to 417 for procurement of pulses at the MSP directly from farmers and more will be opened if required, it said. It may be noted that prices of some pulses like moong in the domestic market have fallen below the MSP and the government has started the procurement operation at the MSP to protect the interest of farmers. (Source: PTI)
CAI projects 336 lakh bales cotton crop for 2016-17 Kharif cotton crop is likely to be at the same level as that of last year, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) said on Tuesday. The trade body has retained the cotton crop estimates for the year 2016-17 season at 336 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). The cotton crop estimates released for August is unchanged against the previous month. As per CAI data, for the year 2015-16, cotton crop was a tad higher at 337.75 lakh bales. The projected balance sheet drawn by CAI estimated total cotton supply for the cotton season 2016-17 at 398 lakh bales, while the domestic consumption is estimated at 309 lakh bales thus leaving an available surplus of 89 lakh bales. (Source: HBL)
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Market Highlights - Sugar
% Change Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
Sugar Spot ₹/qtl 3630 -0.79 0.28 -0.46 41.80
Sugar M- NCDEX Oct’16
₹/qtl 3482 -0.09 -0.34 -0.49 25.48
ICE-Europe Sugar No 5- Dec’16
$/tonne 597.2 -0.91 0.84 9.52 61.41
ICE-US Sugar No 11- Oct’16
Usc/lbs 22.53 -1.01 1.81 9.80 85.13
Source: Reuters
Price Chart – Sugar M NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Source: Reuters
Sugar Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 20-Dec-16 20-Mar-17
Spot 3630 -148 -29 201
20-Oct-16 3482 0 119 349
20-Dec-16 3601 - 0 230
20-Mar-17 3831 - - 0
Daily NSMV6 01-08-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NSMV6, 30-09-2016, 3,480.00, 3,505.00, 3,480.00, 3,482.00
-1.00, (-0.03%)
Price
INR
100B
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,482.00
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Sugar
Sugar Futures prices closed down during the week despite good demand
in the physical market. the futures market was under pressure as
Exchange has imposed special margin on 10% on long side for Oct
contract and 25% on all other running contract. The most-active October
sugar contract closed 0.34% lower last week to settle at 3,482 per
quintal.
According to Louis Dreyfus Commodities, India may import around 1 mt
sugar in the new season that begins Oct 1. Moreover, according to a
notification by the Director General of Foreign Trade, country has
allocated the export quota of 10,000 tonnes of white sugar to the
European Union in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) under the duty-free preferential
quota.
As per ISMA’s first advance estimate, sugar production in 2016-17 is
pegged at 234lakh tonnes (lt) and with carry over stock of 75 lt from
2015-16 SS, there will be enough sugar available for next year to meet
the domestic demand of about 256 lt. ISMA predicted carry forward
stocks of around 52 lt for 2017-18 sugar season, as on 1st October, 2017.
Based on the September 2016 satellite images, ISMA has estimated the
total cane acreage at 49.99 lakh hectares, which is about 5% less than
2015-16 SS. The total cane acreage in Maharashtra is estimated to be
8.10 lh, down 23% while in UP the acreage is more or less same at 23.10
lac ha compared to last. Sugar production in Maharashtra during 2016-17
SS, is estimated at 62.7 lac tons, 25% less than actual sugar production in
2015-16 SS.
Global Updates
ICE raw sugar futures turned sharply lower on Friday on technical selling
but the prices closed higher on week. Sugar prices briefly firmed when
data from Brazil cane industry group Unica showed the country's main
center-south crush reached 37.6 million tonnes in the first half of
September, below market estimates for the second consecutive
fortnight. The non-commercial dealers increased net long position in raw
sugar futures and options by 4,386 contracts to 290,985 contracts, the
third straight rise and the highest level since data became publicly
available in 2006.
Robobank projected a global deficit of 7.2mt in the upcoming 2016/17
season after a 7.9mt shortfall in the current season. Meanwhile, Platts
Kingsman raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the
2016/17 season (October/September) by 570,000 tonnes to 6.45mt.
Earlier, the International Sugar Organization (ISO), in its first full
assessment of the forthcoming 2016-17 season, forecast a global sugar
deficit of 7.05 mt.
Outlook
We expect sugar prices may trade down on good physical supplies from
mills are continuing in the physical market due to imposed stock limit on
mills. Increased margin by the exchange also pressurize prices in the
futures market. Global prices are supportive due to the expectation of
weak cane crush this season in the key center-south region of top grower
Brazil and an increase in the size of the global sugar deficit forecast.
Technical Outlook
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Sugar NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 3430-3455 3500-3520
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Market Highlights - Oilseeds
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Soybean Spot- NCDEX ₹/qtl 3216 0.78 -6.02 -7.16 -7.82
Soybean- NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 3235 0.90 1.06 -2.15 -20.36
Soybean-CBOT Nov’16 USc/Bsh 954.0 0.39 -0.10 0.34 6.95
RM Seed Spot- NCDEX ₹/qtl 4800 -0.33 -3.03 -1.03 4.31
RM Seed- NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 4571 0.79 -2.70 -1.61 -7.62
Source: Reuters
Price Chart –Soybean NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Source: Reuters
Soybean Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 18-Nov-16 20-Dec-16
Spot 3216 19 43 91
20-Oct-16 3235 0 24 72
18-Nov-16 3259 - 0 48
20-Dec-16 3307 - - 0
Price Chart –Mustard NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Mustard Seed Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 18-Nov-16 20-Dec-16
Spot 4800 -229 -116 -139
20-Oct-16 4571 0 113 90
18-Nov-16 4684 - 0 -23
20-Dec-16 4661 - - 0
Daily NSBV6 01-08-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NSBV6, 30-09-2016, 3,199.00, 3,243.00, 3,185.00, 3,235.00
+24.00, (+0.75%)
Price
INR
100B
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,235.00
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Daily NRSV6 27-07-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NRSV6, 30-09-2016, 4,535.00, 4,577.00, 4,512.00, 4,571.00,
+33.00, (+0.73%)
Price
INR
100B
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
4,900
4,571.00
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Soybean Soybean futures closed higher on week due to lower level buying by
the market participants. The most-active Oct’16 delivery contract
closed 0.90% higher last week to settle at Rs. 3,235 per quintal. Dry
weather forecasted in the soybean growing areas of Rajasthan,
Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, which will aid the harvesting.
Acreage under soybean in the country was at 114.7 lh, down 1.3%
than last year but higher than the five-year average of 106. lh ha for
the period. The SOPA has estimated India’s 2016-17 soybean
production to be around 10 mt, up from 7.5 mt in 2015-16 but USDA
recently revised the production down by about 14 lt to 97 lt. Soybean
prices are at lower levels for the year due to low crushing and limited
meal export demand. During the April-August 2016 period, India’s
soybean meal exports recorded a 62% decline to 63,522 tonnes.
Global update
U.S. soybean eased on Friday, set for a third week of decline on
prospects for higher yields than estimated by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, although strong demand kept a floor under the market.
Based on 1 June, 2016, stocks and June-August exports and crush data,
U.S. soybean stocks as of 1 September, 2016, is higher than market
expectations. The US soybean harvest is currently running a little
behind schedule, but progress should improve with some drier
weather this week.
Outlook
We expect Soybean prices to trade higher today due to good demand
for the new crop. The forecast of dry weather in Rajasthan, MP and
Maharashtra will aid harvesting of new season crop. However, cut in
edible oil imports taxes and lower export demand for soymeal may
keep prices under check.
Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures end this week in negative due to want of
physical demand but traded higher on Friday on bargain buying by
market participants. The Oct’16 contract ended 2.70% down last week
to settle at Rs. 4,571/quintal. The country's production of rapeseed, is
expected to rise 6.3 mt, up 12.5 % from a year earlier. The demand for
mustard may pickup in physical market due to approaching winter.
Global updates
There are reports of timely rains in EU rapeseed crops, which will
enhance production after dry weather during sowing season.
According to latest USDA report, rapeseed crop is lowered for the
European Union and Russia, offsetting a modest increase in Canada.
Widespread showers over in Europe boosted rapeseed crop
development after, but drought prompted farmers to sow less. The
world production is forecasted at 66.86 mt for 2016/17 season. Canada
rapeseed exports up 0.2mt to 9.6 mt, on strong global demand.
Outlook
We expect mustard seed may trade sideways on more correction
expected on reports of good acreage in the coming rabi season.
However, crushing demand from the industrial buyers may support
prices during the sowing season during Oct-Nov.
Technical Levels
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Soybean NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 3175-3200 3270-3290 RM Seed NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 4470-4500 4600-4640
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Market Highlights- Edible oils
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
Ref Soyoil Spot - Mumbai
₹/10 kg 657.5 0.38 -1.13 1.94 11.4
Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Oct’16
₹/10 kg 655.7 -0.02 -0.70 2.04 2.4
Soybean Oil- CBOT-
Dec’16
USc/lb 33.44 0.30 -0.36 0.91 23.4
CPO-Bursa Malaysia - Dec’16
MYR/Tn 2636 0.76 -1.49 4.35 14.3
CPO- MCX – Oct’16 ₹/10 kg 582.0 -0.02 0.14 7.34 37.7
Source: Reuters
Price Chart –Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 18-Nov-16 20-Dec-16
Spot 657.5 -1.8 3.95 7.2
20-Oct-16 655.7 0 5.75 9.0
18-Nov-16 661.45 - 0 3.3
20-Dec-16 664.7 - - 0.0
Price Chart –Crude Palm Oil MCX Sep’16 contract
Source: Reuters
CPO Spread Matrix
Closing 30-Sep-16 28-Oct-16 30-Nov-16
30-Sep-16 582 0 -41.9 -69.7
28-Oct-16 540.1 - 0 -27.8
30-Nov-16 512.3 - - 0
Daily NSOV6 29-07-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NSOV6, 30-09-2016, 653.20, 657.90, 653.20, 655.70, -0.30, (-0.05%) Price
INR
10B
620
630
640
650
660655.70
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Daily MCAU6 27-07-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, MCAU6, 30-09-2016, 581.8, 582.7, 581.6, 582.0 Value
480
510
540
570
600
582.0
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Refined Soy Oil
Refined soy oil closed lower last week tracking international edible oil
prices. Moreover, prices in spot markets were also down due to cut in
import taxes for the edible oil by the government. The most active Ref
Soy oil Oct’16 expiry contract closed 0.70% down last week to settle at
Rs. 655.7/10 kg. India has cut import taxes on both crude palm oil and
refined edible oils by 5% points to 7.5 and 15 % respectively.
For the first half of October government increases the tariff value of
crude soy oil to $827/tonnes or 1.22% compared to previous fortnight.
Government fixes the tariff value every fortnight. Base import prices of
edible oils revised every fortnight taking into account the prices in
international markets, as well as changes in the foreign exchange rate.
As per SEA data, India's edible oil imports fell 8.4% to 1.25 mt in
August, while cumulative imports in the first 10 months of the current
oil rose 4.0% to 12.04 mt. India Aug crude soyoil import 333,599
tonnes, lower by 18 % compared to 406,116 tonnes year ago.
Outlook Soy oil futures may trade higher today on technical buying by the
market participants. However, good physical supplies in the domestic
market due to lowering the import duty on edible oils and decreasing
tariff values of crude soy oil may pressurize prices.
Crude Palm Oil
CPO Futures closed higher last week due to good demand in the
domestic market. The most active CPO Sep’16 expiry closed higher by
0.78% to settle at Rs. 543.5 per 10 kg. The tariff value of RBD palmolein
increase 6.1% for the 1st
half of October compared to last fortnight.
However, tariff value for CPO increase by only $1 /tonnes to $767.
India's palm oil imports in 2016/17 are likely by rise 9% to 9.24mt from
a year earlier, as a growing population and higher income levels drive
up edible oil consumption. Palm oil imports by India fell for a fourth
month in August dropped by 16% to 540,633 metric tons in August
from a year earlier. However, SEA data showed imports of palm oil
almost doubled to 2.2 mt in Nov-Aug, compared with 1.3 mt a year
ago.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower last week on lower exports
figures but recovered during last two days – Thursday and Friday,
tracking gains in rival oilseed soya. Palm oil shipments from Malaysia,
the world's second largest palm producer, fell nearly 16 percent in the
September 1-25 period from the corresponding period last month.
Export of palm oil products are expected to slip this month on weaker
demand from top consumers China and India, as expect demand to be
slow cold temperatures solidify the tropical oil.
Outlook
We expect CPO to trade sideways on higher imports of edible oil as
import taxes in the country is reduced. Lower import taxes may
encourage cheaper edible oil dumping in the domestic market from
world markets.
Technical Outlook
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 648-652 659-663 CPO MCX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 532-537 544-548
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Market Highlights - Spices % Change
Unit Last Prev day
WoW MoM YoY
Jeera Spot- NCDEX ₹/qt
l
18069 -0.19 0.38 -3.89 11.61
Jeera- NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qt
l
17295 0.06 0.87 -3.86 6.59
Turmeric Spot- NCDEX ₹/qt
l
7579 0.00 1.80 -2.89 -3.65
Turmeric- NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qt
l
7186 -0.75 4.39 -1.78 -10.40
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Jeera Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 18-Nov-16 20-Dec-16
Spot 18069 -774 -589 -434
20-Oct-16 17295 0 185 340
18-Nov-16 17480 - 0 155
20-Dec-16 17635 - - 0
Price Chart – Turmeric NCDEX Oct’16 contract
Source: Reuters
Turmeric Spread Matrix
Closing 20-Oct-16 18-Nov-16 20-Dec-16
Spot 7579 -393 -349 -299
20-Oct-16 7186 0 44 94 18-Nov-16 7230 - 0 50 20-Dec-16 7280 - - 0
Daily NJEV6 27-07-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NJEV6, 30-09-2016, 17,270.00, 17,350.00, 17,225.00, 17,295.00,
+60.00, (+0.35%)
Price
INR
100B
17,000
18,000
19,000
17,295.00
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Daily NTMV6 05-08-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NTMV6, 30-09-2016, 7,258.00, 7,258.00, 7,162.00, 7,186.00,
-62.00, (-0.86%)
Price
INR
100B
6,800
7,200
7,600
7,186.00
08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Spices Jeera Jeera futures gain during the last week as physical demand increases
for the domestic consumption. NCDEX Oct’16 Jeera closed 0.87% up
during last week to close at Rs 17,295 per quintal. The physical
demand is picking up as the stocks are dwindling. According to the
trade sources, jeera exports may have raise by 29% to 58,000 tonnes
in Apr-Aug compared to last year figure of 45,000 tonnes.
{{
According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the
first three months (Apr-Jun) of 2016-17 is at 44,023 tonnes, higher by
71.7% compared to last year same time. In the first three months of
new financial year, jeera exports has achieved about 46% of last year’s
export volume due to good demand from Vietnam and Bangladesh. In
Jun country, exports 9,859 tonnes of jeera, which is lower by 52 %,
compared to May (20,383 tonnes) but 39% higher y/y (7,064 tonnes).
As per 4th
advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is
pegged at 2.38 lt compared to 1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14,
production was 3.46 lt.
Outlook
We expect Jeera futures to trade sideways as physical demand seems
to be steady, as export demand is not picking up at higher levels.
Moreover, the stock positions are dwindling with the traders and
stockists but expectation of better crop next year is pressurizing
prices.
Turmeric
Turmeric futures closed higher on week due to reports of good
demand from up-country buyers and forecast of heavy rains in
Telangana and Maharashtra, which may damage standing turmeric
crop. Turmeric Oct’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 4.39% higher
to settle at Rs 7,186 per quintal. However, lowering export demand in
recent months is pressurizing prices.
The prices of turmeric are moving sideways to higher due to mixed
fundamentals of good sowing acreage coupled with declining supplies
and forecast of higher rains in the turmeric growing state of
Telangana. The demand from the industrial buyers will support the
prices just before new season harvesting.
Turmeric acreage in Telangana as on 28 Sep was up 12% at 46,000
hectares as compared to 41,000 hectares last year. Sowing of turmeric
is over in 95% of normal area and up by 107 % of normal sowing area.
As per dept of commerce data, country exported about 32,834 tonnes
of turmeric during April-June period up by 32% compared to same
period last year.
Outlook
We expect turmeric may trade higher on expectation of pickup in
domestic demand due to festival demand and forecast of heavy rains
in turmeric growing areas. However, the prices may stabilize due to
higher sowing acreage in the current season.
Technical Outlook
Unit Support Resistance
Jeera NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 16940-17080 17400-17555
Turmeric NCDEX Oct’16 ₹/qtl 7050-7120 7280-7380
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Kapas
Cotton complex prices recovering during the last week due to forecast of
lower production and reports of pest damage in Gujarat. Moreover,
chances of heavy rains in western and South India in 1st
half of October
may crop damage cotton crop in the states of Maharashtra, Telangana
and Andhra Pradesh. During the last week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17
closed higher by 1.12% while MCX Oct’16 cotton closed higher by 0.51%.
However as new season cotton started to arrive in the physical market.
As per, the Cotton Association of India (CAI), the apex trade body of the
fibre crop, The trade body has retained the cotton crop estimates for the
year 2016-17 season at 336 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). The projected
balance sheet drawn by CAI estimated total cotton supply for the cotton
season 2016-17 at 398 lakh bales, while the domestic consumption is
estimated at 309 lakh bales thus leaving an available surplus of 89 lakh
bales.
Domestic update
As per latest estimate by government, cotton is planted in 105.6 lh in the
country, down by 11.6% against 116 lh last year as on 23 Sep. In Gujarat,
the top cotton producing state, the crop had been across 23.8 lh ,down
13.8% from a year ago. In Maharashtra, the largest area under cotton,
the acreage was at 38.0 lh, slightly down from around 38.2 lh a year ago.
According to USDA, cotton production in the country expected at seven-
year low in 2016-17 of 5.8 mt due to lower area under cultivation and
pest attacks in top producer states. India’s exports will be at their lowest
level since 2008/09 falling 30 % or 1.9 million bales in 2015-16.
Global Cotton Updates
Cotton futures bounced back on Friday, after touching a two-week low
earlier in the session, pushed up by short-covering and a weaker U.S.
dollar. Speculators raise net long position by 7,582 contracts to 82,620 in
week to Sept. 27, the highest in over seven weeks.
For the week ended Sept. 22, net upland sales totaled 91,600 running
bales, down about 54 percent from the prior week. Cotton fallen over 3
% this week now on track for its biggest weekly decline primarily due to
speculator selling and fading weather concerns in the US. The U.S. cotton
harvest has just begun with 6% of cotton harvested as of the week ended
Sept. 18 compared to a five-year average of 7%.
According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, U.S. cotton condition
inched marginally higher in the week ended Sept. 18 as boll opening
remained behind a year ago and the five-year average. Cotton
considered good to excellent crept up a percentage point to 48 percent.
A year ago, good to excellent was 52%.
Outlook
We expect cotton prices may trade sideways to down as market is
expecting new season crop in few weeks and the forecast of dry weather
across cotton sowing states Gujarat and Maharashtra, which will
facilitate good harvesting. Moreover, mixed cotton prices in International
market may also guide domestic prices.
Technical Outlook
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Kapas NCDEX April ’17 ₹/20 kgs 868-880 915-930
Cotton MCX Oct’16 ₹/bale 19400-19600 19980-20200
Market Highlights- Cotton
% Change
Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
NCDEX Kapas Apr ‘17 ₹20 kgs 901 1.24 1.12 2.04 0.63
MCX Cotton Oct’16 ₹/Bale 19840 0.51 -1.93 0.40 23.00
ICE Cotton Dec ‘16 USc/Lbs 68.08 0.52 -2.84 2.70 14.44
Cotton ZCE Yuan/t 15015 -0.89 2.28 13.58 20.60
Source: Reuters
Price Chart - Kapas NCDEX Apr ‘17 contract
Price Chart - Cotton MCX Oct’16 contract
Source: Reuters
Cotton Spread Matrix
Closing 31-Oct-16 30-Nov-16 30-Dec-16
31-Oct-16 19840 0 -1070 -1290
30-Nov-16 18770 - 0 -220
30-Dec-16 18550 - - 0
Daily NKKJ7 04-08-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, NKKJ7, 30-09-2016, 891.00, 902.50, 887.00, 901.00,
+12.00, (+1.35%)
Price
INR
20B
900
950
901.00
08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Daily MCOTV6 01-08-2016 - 04-10-2016 (BOM)
Cndl, MCOTV6,
30-09-2016, 19,780.00, 19,890.00, 19,670.00, 19,840.00,
+150.00, (+0.76%)
Price
INR
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500
19,840.00
01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 03August 2016 September 2016
Monday| Oct 03, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Agri-Commodities Daily Report
Prepared By
Anuj Gupta A.V.P - Research [email protected] (011) 49165954
Ritesh Kumar Sahu Research Analyst – Agri-Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 (Ext 6165)
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy,
completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced,
distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is
appreciated on [email protected]