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Agreement with the Beverage Sector · Coke Freestyle . Pepsi Spire Glass Front Vending ... Little...
Transcript of Agreement with the Beverage Sector · Coke Freestyle . Pepsi Spire Glass Front Vending ... Little...
A key solution to reduce consumption of Sugar Sweetened Beverages
Agreement with the Beverage Sector (Announced September 2014)
Our Mission We work to empower kids to develop lifelong healthy habits by ensuring the ENVIRONMENTS that surround them
provide and promote good health.
Our Vision We believe ALL young people deserve the
chance to live healthier lives.
Healthier Marketplace
Healthier Community
Environments
Our Strategies
Change Supply
Increase Access
Create Demand
National Goal Reduce beverage calories consumed per person per day by 20% by 2025 Communities Goal Achieve equivalent reductions in 8-10 communities where the challenge is believed to be greatest
Little Rock & Los Angeles | September 2014
New York City | May 2015
Counties in MS & AL | April 2016
2-Part Goal
Communities Selected to Date
Agreement includes:
• Calorie counts and promotion of calorie awareness on all company-controlled point-of-sale equipment in convenience stories, restaurants and other locations:
— Vending machines — Retail coolers — Self-serve fountain dispensers
• Complete business practice change:
innovation, distribution and marketing to change and sustain consumer interest in no- and low-calorie beverages
• Consumer education and outreach: taste tests, sampling programs, coupons and other incentives, in-store displays, community engagement
Evaluation
• Independent, third party evaluator
• Selected through a competitive RFP process
• Track progress and interim benchmarks
NATIONAL GOAL • Baseline Report for the National Initiative
March 2016
• 2015 Progress on the National Initiative November 2016
COMMUNITIES GOAL • Communities Initiative Baseline Report &
2015 Update Pending distribution
The Alliance negotiated an agreement with the beverage industry that resulted in a 90% reduction in beverage calories
being shipped to the nation’s schools between 2004-2010.
National Calorie Awareness Program (Vending & Coolers)
Reformulation, New Products, Smaller Packages
Coke Freestyle Pepsi Spire Glass Front Vending
Company Efforts
Marketing & Advertising Merchandising & Distribution
Post-Planogram Reset Pre-Planogram Reset
Marketing & Advertising
SEPTEMBER 2014 Little Rock & LA Selected
January 2015 RFP Released
May 2015 Keybridge Selected as Evaluator
MAY 2015 NYC Selected
SEPTEMBER 2014 Announcement
MARCH 2016 National Baseline Report Released
AUTUMN 2016 National Progress Report Released
SPRING 2017 Communities Baseline & Progress Report Released
APRIL 2016 MS & AL Selected
Timeline of Events: 2014-2017 Key Dates Related to the Evaluation Effort
National Analysis
Community Analysis
WHAT: Measure progress toward the overall calorie per person goals
HOW: Measure implementation efforts and determine key drivers of overall changes
Evaluation Research Scope
X X =
Reduced Calories per
Ounce
Smaller Portion Sizes
Fewer Servings
Reduced Calories
per Person ≈
Calories
Person
Calories
Ounce
Ounces
Beverage
Beverages
Person
Factors Contributing to Beverage Calorie Reductions
BEVERAGE MARKETING CORPORATION
NIELSEN SCANTRACK
BEVERAGE DIGEST
Measuring Progress
Towards the National Goal
National Calorie Goal: Key Data Sources
Beverage Digest
Beverage Marketing
Nielsen Scantrak
Nielsen Homescan
NPD Group(CREST)
Company Data
National
MSA - - -
Zip Code - - -
SKU / Package Size - - - -
Beverage Product / Flavor - - - -
Brand / Trademark -
Fountain - -
Vending - - -
Stores with >$2M sales -
Stores with <$2M sales - -
Publicly Available Yes/No -
Full LRB Coverage Yes/No -
Demographic Information Yes/No - - -
Data Assessment Criteria
Geographic Granularity
Product Granularity
Channel
National Data Source Assessment
National Goal
199 159
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014Baseline*
2025Target*
Average Daily Per Capita Beverage Calories DrinkTell, 2015
20%
* Revisions to the underlying data from DrinkTell may result in revisions to the baseline and target estimates. Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation: DrinkTell Database; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015
National 2014 Baseline & 2025 Target
199.0 198.7
159.2
0
50
100
150
200
2014Baseline
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Target
Average LRB Calories Per Person Per Day: DrinkTell*
* Revisions to the underlying data from DrinkTell resulted in revisions to the baseline and target estimates originally published in 2014.
20% DECLINE
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation: DrinkTell Database, 2015; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015
Measuring Progress Towards the National Calorie Goal
177 177
142
0
50
100
150
200
2014Baseline
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Target
Average LRB Calories Per Person Per Day: Beverage Digest*
* Beverage Digest data does not include significant portions of LRB volume, including many juices and RTD Teas.
20% DECLINE
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation: DrinkTell Database, 2015; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015
Corroborating Data: Beverage Digest
119.8 117.9
95.8
0
50
100
150
200
2014Baseline
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Target
Average LRB Calories Per Person Per Day: Nielsen Scantrack*
*Nielsen Scantrack data does not include several important sales channels, such as fountain.
20% DECLINE
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation: DrinkTell Database, 2015; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015
Corroborating Data: Nielsen Scantrack
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Single-Serve Bottled Water
No- & Low- Calorie CSDs
Sales Volume Trends, 2000-2014 No- & Low-Calorie CSDs and Bottled Waters, Millions of 8 oz. Servings
Source: Beverage Digest Fact Book, 2015
Long-Term Shifts and Potential Headwinds
Average Calories per Person per Day, 2000-2014 Calories from Beverages Included in Beverage Digest (Excludes some Non-Carbs)
Sources: Beverage Digest Fact Book, 2013-2016
198 196 195 193 191 189 187 185 184 182 180
200
178 175 177 177
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Slowdown of Calorie Reduction Trend
Calorie declines must accelerate to meet the 2025 goal 1
Calorie reduction momentum has stalled and must be regenerated 2
Growth of bottled water was notable, but had limited caloric effects 3
Falling no- and low-calorie CSD consumption represents a headwind 4
Companies laid groundwork in 2015 for future calorie reductions 5
Key Conclusions from the 2015 Progress Report
Communities Goal
Los Angeles, CA • Boyle Heights • Lincoln Heights • El Sereno • East Los Angeles Little Rock, AR • Downtown • South Little Rock • Southwest Little Rock • Midtown Little Rock
Communities Selected To Date
New York, NY • South Bronx • Bedford Stuyvesant &
Crown Heights in Brooklyn
Mississippi Delta, MS Counties of: • Coahoma • Panola • Quitman • Tunica Greater Montgomery, AL Counties of: • Montgomery • Lowndes
Community Selection Announced
Implementation Initiated Baseline Year
National Initiative September 2014 January 2015 2014
Little Rock, Arkansas September 2014 May 2015 2014
Los Angeles, California September 2014 May 2015 2014
Bronx-Brooklyn, New York May 2015 January 2016 2015
Montgomery-Lowndes, Alabama April 2016 October 2016 2015
Mississippi Delta, Mississippi April 2016 October 2016 2015
Key Dates for National & Communities Initiatives
Community Total Population (2014)
Median Household
Income (2014)
% of Pop. Below Poverty Line
(2014)*
Eastern Los Angeles Community 286,898 $37,282 29%
Little Rock Community 98,277 $31,749 27%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau(2014); CDC (2012); New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene(2015)
* In 2015, National average percentage of population below the poverty line was 15%. The National median household income was $53,889.
Communities with 2014 Baseline
Data from the CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) was used to rank counties by adult obesity rates and to determine the top 6-10 most obese counties and MSAs.
Identify High Obesity Counties & MSAs 1
The selected communities include 2nd and 4th most obese U.S. counties and parts of the 10th most obese MSA with a population between 200K-500K.
Select Communities in Mississippi & Alabama 3
The companies and ABA narrowed the list based on: (1) internal capability to implement the initiative and report data; (2) learning potential for different regions, and (3) input from the Alliance and potential partners.
Narrow Lists to Identify Set of Areas of Interest 2
In order to select a sufficiently large area, ACS 2009-13 population data was used to select multiple contiguous counties around the areas selected.
Construct Contiguous Area 4
2016 Community Selection Process
Community Total Population (2015)
Median Household
Income (2015)
% of Pop. Below Poverty Line
(2015)*
Mississippi Delta Community 79,093 $32,198 29%
Montgomery-Lowndes Community 238,964 $45,483 23%
Bronx-Brooklyn Community 310,797 $37,648 31%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau(2014); CDC (2012); New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene(2015)
* In 2015, National average percentage of population below the poverty line was 15%. The National median household income was $53,889.
Communities with 2015 Baseline
1 No existing data sources for measuring consumption in small geographies.
3 Nielsen Scantrack is (1) based on data from a small, unrepresentative samples of stores, and (2) does not include small independent stores, restaurants/fountain, and vending/other channels.
2 Company shipment data does not include sales for (1) brands of non-Agreement companies; (2) some Agreement company warehouse brands; and (3) sales by third-party distributors.
Top Data Challenges: Community Level Analysis
246
167
0
100
200
300
Little RockCommunity
Eastern L.A.Community
2014 National: 199.0
265 244
111
0
100
200
300
Montgomery-Lowndes
Community
MississippiDelta
Community
Bronx-BrooklynCommunity*
2015 National: 198.7
* Bronx-Brooklyn Community is likely biased downward due to data limitations Sources: Company-Reported Volumes and Nielsen Scantrack
LRB Calories Per Person Per Day Baseline for Communities & National Average
2015 BASELINE 2014 BASELINE
Baseline Estimate: Calorie Consumption
38 35
0
10
20
30
40
50
Montgomery-Lowndes
Community
Mississippi DeltaCommunity
31
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
Little RockCommunity
Eastern L.A.Community
2014 National: 34
2015 National: 35
LRB Volumes, in Ounces, Per Person Per Day Baseline for Communities & National Average
Bronx-Brooklyn Community excluded due to data limitations Sources: Company-Reported Volumes and Nielsen Scantrack
2015 BASELINE 2014 BASELINE
Baseline Estimate: Volume Consumption
55 56
0
25
50
75
100
Montgomery-Lowndes
Community
Mississippi DeltaCommunity
63 55
0
25
50
75
100
Little RockCommunity
Eastern L.A.Community
LRB Calories Per 8-Ounce Serving Baseline for Communities & National Average
2014 National: 47
2015 National: 46
Bronx-Brooklyn Community excluded due to data limitations Sources: Company-Reported Volumes and Nielsen Scantrack
2015 BASELINE 2014 BASELINE
Baseline Estimate: Calories Per Serving
Sources: Company-Reported Volumes and Nielsen Scantrack, 2014 and 2015
-0.2%
0.4%
-2.6% -3%
-2%
0%
2%
3%
Little Rock Community
Eastern L.A. Community National
Percent Change in LRB Calories Per Person Per Day Change from 2014 Baseline
Changes from 2014 Baseline: LRB Calorie Consumption
“Test and Learn”
Los Angeles
Community
Total Number of
Stores (includes Grocery,
Convenience, Drug, Dollar, Club,
and Bodega)
Total Number of Restaurants
Total Number of
Large Grocery
Stores
Total Number of Medium
Grocery Stores
Total Number of Club/Mass
Merchandisers
Total Number of Other Small Food Stores
Total Number of Restaurants
Not Serviced by Any Company
Total Number of Food Stores
Not Serviced by Any Company
Los Angeles 459 392 13 - 1 445 142 91
LR 221 184 11 - 2 208 19 22
NYC 900 535 0 17 0 883 250 240
AL 216 336 13 - 5 198 Analysis not conducted Analysis not conducted
MS 117 95 6 - 2 109 Analysis not conducted Analysis not conducted
# Stores & Restaurants
10 years
Test and Learn Research and Development
Marketing
Consumer Behavior Change
Sustainability