Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011
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Transcript of Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011
2
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Identifying, structuring and piloting disruptive situations using agile type of methodologies
Approaches and case studies
MBA 2011 & Risk Management Module (Prof. Emmanuel Fragnière)
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Synopsis : Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up & Good-luck
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Time table
Friday March 25, 2011
Concepts + Methodologies
Training using a case
Luxury Hotel Part A
- Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Plenum discussion
Luxury Hotel Part B
- Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Wrap-up
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Synopsis Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up & Good-luck
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
About us
Patrick Bays
Lic. Econometrics, MBA IMD
15 years of international exposure in
o the prototyping and the implementation of disrutptive innovation
o change management within several industries
PwC, Tetra Pak, Swisscom, UCB Pharma, Wake Asset Management
English, German, French
Philippe Steinmann
Expert Auditor
20 years of international exposure in :
o the management of special projects
o Supporting organizations facing volatile situations (high growth rate, turnaround)
KPMG, Ilta Holding, Euroterminal
English, French
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Synopsis : Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
A : Positioning
B : Methodologies
C : Training
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up & Good-luck
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Risk awareness changes perspectives…
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Basic reminders: the Board of Directors sets the risk appetite
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Set the stage and quickly agree upon a common language
E
Event
Crisis management
Vulnerability analysis Anticipate Apply Restore Prevent
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
Business Continuity Planning
Risk Management Contingency Planning Recovery Management
Threats Measures Norms and protocols
Standards of engagement
Manage the information
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
These situations have something in common …
… no one anticipated their disruptive character and the storm that followed.
Toyota suspends sales January 2010, recall list
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
A situation of disruption occurs when ...
for a given organizational system….
Equilibrium A new
equilibrium
Correctives measures
Period of high vollatility
A particular event causes a disruption of this balance which threatens the sustainability of this system
E
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Afterwards, most actors agree they were unable to grasp the severity of the situation …
…due to a slowly increasing disturbing feeling invading and panicking them
• No abrupt change but soft slips causing discomfort and doubts
• Lack of response and lack of anticipation leading from the start to to become chronic victims of events
• Lack of internal coordination and consultation
• Chaotic and contraductory internal so as external communication
Symptoms
Pot
entia
l im
pact
Low
H
igh
No Yes
Anticipated event
Crisis Management
Managing the unexpected
Operational Management
Fault Management
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The management of such a disruption is fundamentally different if the triggering event could be anticipated in advance ...
E
Event
Crisis management
Vulnerability analysis Anticipate Apply Restore Prevent
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
Managing the unexpected
React Restore
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Military forces
Emergency doctors
The observation of extreme behaviors in emergency situations has helped us to define our methodology in business occasions
Crisis situation
Qua
lity
of th
e in
form
atio
n av
aila
ble
Estimated Normed
Méd
iocr
e P
reci
se, c
alib
rate
d
Time management emergency situations
ED
MiF
Mgr
t
…
SStart SInt.1 SInt.2 SInt.n
Method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations
t SStart SEnd
3 minutes
Standard behaviors and normed protocols
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The military method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations
Analyzing and Planning
Triggering emergency measures
Draft backplanning
Assessment of the situation
Shaping decision
Developing the engagement plan
Identification of the problem
Iterations
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The economic drama seems never ending…
2008 : Financial Crisis 2009 : Economic Crisis 2010 : Social Crisis 2011 : - Currency Crisis ? - Government Debt Crisis ?
… Companies have managed to survive this turmoil by becoming more agile and flexible
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
A : Positioning
B : Methodologies
C : Training
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up & Good-luck
19
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Our approach combines the strengths of two frameworks using cross functional teams to quickly generate an impact
• A technique to rapidly immerse a team into a situation for problem solving in : o Product development o Process improvement o Customer service strategy
• An agile and lean methodology used for software development: o Designed to adapt to changing
requirements during the development process at short regular intervalles
o Allows teams to priorize customers requirements and adopt work produced in real time to customer needs
Deep Dive Scrum
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Deep Dive: step by step
Inspiration Implementation Ideation
Observe and inquire
Tell stories
Synthesize
Execute
Spread
Visualize Realize
Refine Evaluate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M66ZU2PCIcM
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Scrum in a nutshell http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmGMpME_phg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k7a9YEoUI
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
But the IDEO Frameworks reaches some limits as soon as the requirements need to be re-priorized permanently
Scrum methodology mainly used for software development provides a strong framework to address this topic
Scrum
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
An high level illustration of our Agile Development Methods
Inspiration Ideation Implémentation
Observe and ask
Develop a Storyline
Priorize
A dynamic approach under dynamic environmental monitoring
Co-Create
Deep Dive Scrum
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
In practice, a situation of high volatility is resolved step by step
Project Management & Communication
Step 2
Decision
Clarification
Step 3
Decision
Agile Prototyping
Step 1
Decision
Scoping
Urg
ency
mea
sure
s
Step 5
Decision
Implementation, controls and adjustements
Step 4
Decision
Gain support
Storyline
Planing
Change management & Implementation
Pro
cess
To
ol-B
ox
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Admin stuff
About us
Managing disruptive situations
A : Positioning
B : Methodologies
C : Training : the Ukrain’s case
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up & Good-luck
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Ukrainian case : 1998 & 2010, bis repetita
General situation: the Ukrainian environment End of the 90’ Ecosystem was reaching an equilibrium : • Liberal government, development of an economy oriented • Facilities for foreign company to develop business in provinces • Stability of the system (social and economic) & the regulation • Average monthly salary : 250 - 400 US$ • Compliance review of all contract by local government 3-6 months later Particular situation : the Group structure, activities and Group structure & Activities • Trading Co , Crushing plants (250K MT), Distribution’s company • Purchase of sunflower seeds in regions for both crushing and selling abroad. Crude oil
produced & sold around the world. • Approx. 400 contracts signed and performed per year (seeds, oil, meal) • 1 lawyer and 2 assistants employed by the group to review the contracts (standard)
Salient factors to be determined Activity risk, delivery risk, payment risk, contractual risk (review by the government)
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Part A : What are the major salient factors of operating this business in Ukraine (at an equilibrium state of its ecosystem) ?
• •
• •
• •
• •
1
2
3
4
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
1 2 4 3
Part A : Hierarchy of salient factors in a balanced ecosystem:
Eisenhower matrix
Low
Risk matrix
Low
Low
3
4
2
1
Like
lihoo
d
Urg
ency
Impact Importance
Hig
h
High High
Low
H
igh
1 2 4 3
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Part B : Disruption :
Majority Change at the parliament : the communist Party takes over power on Liberals :
The Parliament will be formed in one week after the election : • its objective will be to reduce the margin of private firms for public
companies and increasing taxes, fines and penalties. • It will seat from 09:00 to 23:00, 6 of 7 days, toughening laws
strictly and adding a multitude of fines and penalties for any non-compliance with contract law or in changing contractual terms (delivery date, quantity & quality treated…).
Changing laws will be treated anarchic and could be amended or changed every day. • Chancery will publish new laws every day at midnight for an
immediate application.
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Part B : What are the major salient factors of operating this business in Ukraine after disruption ?
Other ?
…
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
1 2 4 3
Part B : Hierarchy of salient factors after disruption :
Eisenhower matrix
Low
Risk matrix
Low
Low
3
4
2
1
Like
lihoo
d
Urg
ency
Impact Importance
Hig
h
High High
Low
H
igh
1 2 4 3
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
Part B : Prototyping an embryonic solution : the best you can do to be ready in only one week
March 25, 2011
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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Part A : At an Equilibrium state
Part B : Managing disruption
Wrap-up & Good-luck
March 25, 2011
34
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Part A : At an Equilibrium state
Part B : Managing disruption
Wrap-up & Good-luck
March 25, 2011
35
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Part A : Diagnosis, Scoping and Clarification
Part B : Prototyping & implementation
Wrap-up
March 25, 2011
36
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25
The Cougars in a nutshell :
Agenda
About us
Managing disruptive situations in crisis times using agile type of methodologies
Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry
Wrap-up
37
Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25