Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy

1A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

Agile for Project Managers

A sailor's look at Agile

John C Goodpasture, PMP

Managing PrincipalSquare Peg Consulting, LLC


Agile and Sailing?

Really?

Ok, let's get started!

Photo: US Navy


Begin with Small Teams

✦ Risks

managed real-

time

✦ Crew collaboration vital

✦ Instinctive action without direct commands

Photo: US Navy


About Scope

✦Scope:❖Every sailor tries

to 'make the mark'

❖'Mark' is a terminal

point

❖'Mark' is the

sailor's objective

❖'Mark' is the

sponsor's

expectation


Lay-line is the back-log plan

✦Most efficient course

from start to 'mark'

✦Analogous to project

'planned value' PV

✦Sailing the 'lay line'

accumulates value

✦The lay-line is the

'backlog'


✦Motive energy for the boat [project]

✦Source of risks and unknowns

✦Represents [also] stakeholder biases, attitudes, and pressures

✦Complex and unpredictable

Wind is a source of energy


It all interacts

✦Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and

practices

✦Wind: energy, risks

✦‘Mark‘: scope and sponsor expectations

✦Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the 'mark'


Benchmarks forecast velocity✦Velocity [through the water]

creates 'throughput'

✦Throughput is "miles sailed" on

the lay-line

✦"Miles sailed" are like 'story points'


Tack to the mark

✦Short performance

increments [time box]

✦Tactical response to

circumstances

✦ Some variance to the

plan [lay-line]


From energy to value

✦Maximize energy from favorable wind

✦Apply wind energy to create velocity

✦Measure velocity along the lay-line

✦Accumulate value by distance sailed on the

lay-line


Accumulate earned value

✦The lay-line is the value plan

✦Multiple segments laid in tandem

✦Sail as close to the line as possible

✦All value is earned when the buoy is reached


Benchmark units of performance

✦ Velocity x time = performance

unit

❖ Example: 8 NM in 1 hour = 8

knots performance

❖1 hour is analogous to a Time

Box

❖ Nautical mile [NM] analogous to

a story point

Photo: City of Baltimore


3-point Estimate

✦Most Optimistic Outlook:

✦Sail the lay-line

✦Most Pessimistic Outlook:

✦Sail across the lay-line

✦Most Likely Outcome:

✦Estimate real-time conditions


✦Wind [risk] directly opposes the boat [project]

✦Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line

✦Strategy:

✦Find energy ‘off axis’ [evolution]

✦Tack [incremental performance] back and forth across the

lay-line

Most Pessimistic Outlook


Progress on the lay-line

✦ Most Pessimistic Outlook❖2 units of input [time box increments] yield

1.4 units of output [requirements done]

❖Output / Input = 0.7

❖Input / Output = 1.43

Input

increments Output:

1.4 units projected

along the lay-line


What does it mean?

✦Input not resulting in Output:

✦ Unmet requirements

✦ Effort [input] exceeds actual value delivered

✦Unmet requirements addressed in next

increment

✦ Backlog is dynamic

✦Entire lay-line: all requirements are met


Monte Carlo inputs

✦Most Optimistic Outlook: 1

✦Most Pessimistic Outlook: 1.43

✦Most Likely Outlook: Real time estimate

Photo: John Goodpasture


Cost

✦Expected number of performance units❖From Monte Carlo

✦Cost per performance unit❖Crew and boat

❖Unit cost

✦Expected cost = Expected units x Unit cost


Schedule

✦Expected performance

units❖Expected unit efficiency

✦Effective time made along

the lay-line❖Units x unit efficiency

❖Hours per efficiency-weighted

units

Photo: US NIST

A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

Schedule Example

�Planning metrics

– 40 NM lay-line

– 8 Knot performance unit

�Most pessimistic outlook:

– Input = 1.43 x Output

– Input = 57 NM

– Time required = 57 / 8 = 7.2 hours


✦Managing scale is analogous to managing the

fleet

✦Each boat is a team

✦Each boat is a node in a network

✦Each boat maintains situational awareness

Manage Scale

Photo: Nicoyogui on flickr


Rolling Wave

✦Boats on the leading edge of the fleet relay

'over the horizon' information to others

✦Far out lay-lines planned as approached

✦Adjustments made for obstructions and wind

shifts


There's more

✦A textbook for enterprise

Agile

❖The business case

❖The plan

❖Earned Value

❖Teams

❖and more.....


Thank you for viewing

johngoodpasture.com

sqpegconsulting.com

A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

❖John sailed with the Eau Gallie

Yacht Club, Eau Gallie, FL


Square Peg Consulting, LLCsqpegconsulting.com

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Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy

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