Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE
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Transcript of Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE
Agile for Project Managers
A sailor’s look at Agile
A presentation for
2012 GE Agile Conference
1 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Produced by Square Peg Consulting, LLC
Orlando, Florida USA www.sqpegconsulting.com
Photo: US Navy
2
Agile and Sailing?
Really?
Photo: US Navy
So, let's get started!
Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Every sail (project) begins with a plan
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Chart: US NOAA
• Opportunity
• Vision
• Narrative
• Constraints
• Resources
Recruit a small team (crew)
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Redundancy among crew (team)
Crew master (captain) takes the helm
Photo: US Navy
Instinctive action
without direct
commands
Proven protocols
and practices
Commitment to the team
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Every sailor—
individually and
collectively—is
committed
Trust from shared experience
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Collaboration
and trust—
unconditionally
One for all ….
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No individual
success without
collective
success
Define scope (narrative): sail for the marks
Prospective, strategic, top down:
Customer (sponsor) intones: ‘Make the marks’
Retrospective, tactical, bottom up:
Team commits to Best value—
the most—and the most
important—that can be
accomplished
Gap?
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Photo: US Navy
Photo US NOAA
Close the prospective—retrospective gap
Take a risk!
Crew master (captain) is the
ultimate risk manager
Maintains a mental image of the
risk register
Works the response plan real-
time
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Photo: US Navy
Photo US NOAA
From narrative to architecture
Naval architect drives the strategic distribution of marks
Captain is the architect of the tactics
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Photo US Naval Academy
Embrace change!
But… marks are updated, added new, or even deleted
from time to time
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Lay-line is the plan
Lay-line: most efficient
course from “here” to
“there”
Sailing the ‘lay-line'
accumulates value
Lay-line → ‘planned value’
PV
Lay-line → backlog burn-
down plan
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Lay-line
Lay-line burn-down plan
Segment Lay-line segment Planned
value
Effort
burned
Earned
value Efficiency
Red day marker to
blinking light
(8 knts)
(1 hour)
8 NM
Not
started
Blinking light to green
day marker 16 NM
Not
started
…….
…to blinking red 10 NM Not
started
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Lay-line Segment
Navigation marks (Delivery milestones)
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Wind is a source of energy
Motive energy for the boat (project)
Source of risks and unknowns
Represents (also) stakeholder biases, attitudes, and pressures
Complex and sometimes unpredictable
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Photo US Naval Academy
Environment: complex and adaptive
Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and practices
Wind: energy, risks
Mark: scope and sponsor expectations
Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the ‘mark’
Overall course: architecture
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Complex: Many structural parts with uncertain interactions and behaviors
Adaptive: Changes over time to maintain fidelity of expectation
From energy to value
1. Maximize energy from favorable wind
2. Apply wind energy to create velocity
3. Measure velocity along the lay-line
4. Accumulate value by distance sailed
on the lay-line
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Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time
Photo US NOAA
From energy to value
8 knots (velocity) x 1 hour (elapsed time)
= 8 NM (distance)
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Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time
Photo US NOAA
Accumulate earned value
EV strategy:
Sail as close to the lay-line as possible
Claim value earned when the mark is reached
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One segment
EV from 1 to 2
Tack to the mark
Tactical response to
circumstances
Emergent with the wind
Short performance
increments (time box)
Variance to the planned
lay-line
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Tacking: sailing one direction, and then the other, across the lay-line
Most pessimistic forecast
Wind (risk) directly opposes the boat (project)
Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line
Strategy:
Find energy ‘off axis’ (evolve the plan)
Tack (incremental performance) across the lay-line
21
Wind
Photo US Naval Academy
Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Pessimistic progress
❖Example:
2 units of input
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❖Example:
2 units of input (increments)
Input
increments Output:
projected along
the lay-line
1
1
Wind (energy and risk)
Lay-line
Output:
projected along
the lay-line 1.4
1.4 units of earned value along the lay line
Efficiency (Output / Input) = 70%
Benchmarks forecast velocity
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Velocity creates 'throughput'
Throughput is "miles sailed" on the lay-line
"Miles sailed" are like stories completed
Benchmark units of performance
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Velocity = performance units per unit
of time
Performance Unit (Story point) =
Nautical mile (NM)
Unit of time (Time Box) = 1 hour
Example:
8 knots velocity = 8 NM per hour
Lay-line burn-down
Segment
Nr Line segment
Planned
value
Effort
(time)
burned
Earned
value Efficiency
1 Red day marker to
blinking light
8 knts
1 hour
8 NM
7 knts
1.5 hr
10.5 NM
2 Blinking light to green
day marker 16 NM
In
process
…….
N …to blinking red 10 NM Not
started
25 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Lay-line burn-down
Segment
Nr Line segment
Planned
value
Effort
(time)
burned
Earned
value Efficiency
1 Red day marker to
blinking light
8 knts
1 hour
8 NM
7 knts
1.5 hr
10.5 NM
8 NM 8/10.5
76%
2 Blinking light to green
day marker 16 NM
In
process
…….
N …to blinking red 10 NM Not
started
26 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Cost estimating with benchmarks
1. Backlog (performance units) NM
2. Velocity benchmark (units / time) knots
3. Unit cost benchmark (cost / time )
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Expected cost = 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔
𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦∗ Unit cost
Inputs
Calculation
Cost estimating example
Expected cost = 40𝑁𝑀
8 𝑘𝑛𝑡∗ $1000 per hour
Expected cost = 5 ℎ𝑜𝑢rs ∗ $1000 per hour Expected cost = $5000
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Expected cost = 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔
𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦∗ Unit cost
Example
Calculation
Schedule (earned schedule)
Earned schedule: effective time
made along the lay-line
ES = Total duration x efficiency
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Photo: US NIST
Efficiency: effective duration / total duration
Earnable schedule example
• Planning metrics
–40 NM lay-line –8 Knot velocity benchmark –Earnable schedule:
40/8 = 5 hours
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Photo: J Goodpasture
Agile schedule heuristic
A schedule without slack is a hope, requiring prayer…. But it’s unlikely to be an achievable schedule
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Pessimistic schedule example
• Most pessimistic forecast:
– 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 =𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
𝐿𝑎𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑦=
40
0.7= 57NM
– 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =57
8= 7.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
32 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
Slack schedule example
• Required schedule slack:
Pessimistic duration – Earnable schedule
7.2 − 5 = 2.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
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Scale is manageable
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The fleet has sortied The fleet has sortied!
Photo US Navy
Scale is manageable
Vision and strategic direction
Conveyed from the fleet captain
Each boat is a self-directing team,
But learns from the performance of others
Protocols observed
For communication, sequencing, and coordination
Each boat maintains situational awareness
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Rolling wave planning
Information relayed to others by boats on the leading
edge of the fleet ( 'over the horizon‘)
Far out lay-lines planned as approached
Adjustments made for obstructions and wind shifts
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There’s a lot more to know….
• Jim Highsmith: “Agile Project Management: Creating innovative products”
• Dean Leffingwell: “Agile Software Requirements: Lean requirements practices for Teams, Programs, and the Enterprise”
• Mike Cohn: “Agile Estimating and Planning”
• Lisa Crispin and Janet Gregory: “Agile Testing: A practical guide for Testers and Agile Teams”
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Read more…
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Large scale projects
in large scale
organizations
Photo: J. Ross Publishing
Learn more…
PMI® eSeminarsWorldsm instructor
• Agile Project Management
• Advanced Risk Management
and
• Understanding Organizational
Change
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Reserved
Stay in touch
John C Goodpasture, PMP
Program manager, author, and
instructor
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Reserved
johngoodpasture.com
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All done and ready for questions!