Agent-Based Model of Vertical Tsunami

Evacuation Location, Seaside, Oregon

Presenter: Jacky Xiaomin Chen

Mentors: Dr. Haizhong Wang and Dr. Dan Cox

Graduate Students: Alireza Mostafizi, Shangjia Dong

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Source from TownMapsUSA

Introduction: Vertical-Evacuation-Structure (VES)

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• Vertically vs. Horizontally

• Shelters Within the Inundation Area

• Typical VES: Parking garages, commercial buildings,

school facilities etc.

Introduction: VES Capacity

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Under-100 Level

Source form FEMA, 2009

800 LevelOver-1000 Level

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Introduction: Study Area

Images From GoogleMap,

• The city of Seaside, OR, has been identified as having

a high exposure to the CSZ Tsunami (Wood, 2007)

• The city with 83% of its population, 89% of its

employees and almost 100% of its critical facilities in

the tsunami inundation zone (OSSPAC, 2013)

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Introduction: Study Area

Image from DOGAMI, 2013

Methodology: Agent-based Model Interface

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Methodology: Agent-based Model Interface

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Methodology: Agent-based Model Interface

Result: Total Mortality Rate

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Result: Mortality rate vs. Walking speed

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VES_100% 3ft/s 4ft/s 5ft/s

Mortality Rate Range: 63.8% - 10.5% 30.8% - 1.6% 6.2% - 0.2%

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Result: Mortality rate vs. Multiple-Evacuation Strategies

Result: Capacity of VES

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3ft/s4ft/s

5ft/s

• Mortality Rate Decrease:1. Walking Speed Increase 2. More Population Evacuate Horizontally AND Vertically

• VES Capacity: 60% of Population

• Optimal Area

Conclusion

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Acknowledgements

• Prof. Haizhong Wang, Ph.D

• Prof. Daniel Cox, Ph.D

• Alireza Mostafizi,

• Shangjia Dong,

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Thank You All !

Q & A

Acknowledgement

The  authors  would  like  to  acknowledge  the  funding  support  from  Oregon  Sea  Grant  and  National  Science  Foundation  (NSF).

Acknowledgement

The  authors  would  like  to  acknowledge  the  funding  support  from  Oregon  Sea  Grant,  and  National  Science  Foundation  (NSF)  through  project  #1563618.

Bibliography

• Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Oregon Tsunami Evacuation Route Maps. N.p., 13 June 2013.

• FEMA P646A. "Vertical Evacuation from Tsunamis: A Guide for Community Officials." FEMA.gov. N.p., June 2009. Web.

• Wood, N., 2007. Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon. Tech. Rep. 5283, U.S.

Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report.

• OSSPAC. The Oregon Resilience Plan Reducing Risk and Improving Recovery for the next Cascadia Earthquake and

Tsunami. Salem, Or.: Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission, 2013. Print.

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