AGA Conference Bonita Springs, Florida
Embed Size (px)
description
Transcript of AGA Conference Bonita Springs, Florida

AGA Conference
Bonita Springs, Florida
May 3, 2004

2
Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements that may be considered forward looking statements, such as management’s expectations of future earnings, cash position, sources of funds, coverage ratios, market conditions, customer growth, regulatory action, and the anticipated completion of various projects. These statements speak of the Company’s plans, goals, beliefs, or expectations, refer to estimates or use similar terms. Actual results could differ materially. All forward looking statements included in this presentation are based upon information presently available, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements.

3
Agenda
Improved first quarter financial performance
Strong financial footing
Growing regulated businesses
More profitable competitive businesses

4
What is Northeast Utilities Today? (2003 Revenues)
Regulated Companies Unregulated Companies
An electricity delivery company…
The Connecticut Light and Power Company ($2.7 billion)
Western Massachusetts Electric Company ($390 million)
A natural gas delivery company…
Yankee Gas Services Company ($360 million)
An hybrid electric company…
Public Service Company of New Hampshire ($890 million)
A competitive energy marketer…
Select Energy, Inc. ($2.33 billion)
A competitive electricity producer…
Northeast Generation Company ($140 million)
A supplier of energy services…
Northeast Generation Services ($100 million)
Select Energy Services ($150 million)

5
2004 Off To A Good Start
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
1Q03 1Q04 2003Reported
2003ExcludingSignificant
Items
2004ProjectedEarnings
$0.47 $0.53$0.91
$1.24$1.20
$1.40
$/S
har
e o
f E
arn
ing
s

6
First Quarter Improvement Driven By Competitive Business Results
$25.3$26.2
$10.8$11.8
$15.8
$11.9
$6.1
$3.5$4.9
$19.1
$0.4
-$0.2
($5.00)
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
2003 2004
CL&P PSNH YankeeGas
WMECO MerchantEnergy
Services
Ear
nin
gs
in M
illi
on
s

7
NU Consolidated $2,333 45.8% $116 2.3% $2,642 51.9% $1,683 Baa1/BBB
CL&P $718 39.3% $116 6.4% $991 54.3% $1,091 A2/A-
PSNH $386 46.6% $0 0% $442 53.4% $462 A3/BBB+
WMECO $160 45.7% $0 0% $190 54.3% $130 A3/BBB+
Yankee Gas $231* 50.4% $0 0% $227 49.6% $0 Baa1/BBB+
NGC $441 53.1% $0 0% $389 46.9% $0 Baa2/BB+
BBB/BBB-
Target Leverage
Strong Current Capitalization Ratios Provide Solid Foundation for Growth
55.0%
Common Preferred Debt RRBs Sr. Ratings
*Excludes equity associated with goodwill.
3/31/04(In Millions)
(Excludes RRBs)

8
RegulatoryOverrecoveries
Sources and Uses of Cash in 2003
$274 $183
$204$127$252
$211
$94$51 $79
$550
Net Income
Issuance of Debt, Net ofRetirements
AmortizationNet of RRBs
Depreciation
Dividends
Deferred, Accrued
Taxes
Primary Sources Primary Uses
InvestmentsIn Plant
SMDEscrow
PSNH IPP Buyout, CVEC Purchase
(in millions)

9
Dividend Has Continued to Grow, But Remains Modest
$1.76
$1.38
$0.25
$0.00$0.10
$0.40 $0.45 $0.525 $0.575
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Dividends/Share

10
Overall Strategy - How the Puzzle Fits Together
Regulated Businesses
Expand retail, wholesale preservice in Northeast markets
Continue to win significant standard offer, and default service bids
Achieve targeted returns on investments by maintaining gross margins
Manage risk effectively
Build services businesses
Competitive Businesses
Build needed transmission facilities to remedy critical SW Connecticut supply situation
Invest in distribution companies to replace aging infrastructure and to improve reliability
Maintain strong balance sheet
Timely recovery of purchased energy costs
Continue to implement best practices among four regulated operating companies to improve service, contain costs

11
A Closer Look At The Regulated Businesses
CL&PCustomers: 1,169K
Residential 1,058K
Commercial 105K
Industrial 6K
Revenues: $2.7B
Employees: 2,140
4,400 Square Miles
PSNHCustomers: 468K
Residential 399K
Commercial 66K
Industrial 3K
Revenues: $890M
Employees: 1,280
5,445 Square Miles
Yankee GasCustomers: 192K
Residential 168KCommercial 22KIndustrial 2K
Revenues:$360M
Employees: 4901,995 Square Miles
WMECOCustomers: 205K
Residential 185K
Commercial 19K
Industrial 1K
Revenues: $390M
Employees: 410
1,490 Square Miles

12
NU Forecasting Significant Regulated Capital Investment Program
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Regulated Electric Regulated Natural Gas NGC Other
$ Millions - Excluding AFUDC

13
That Needed Investment Will Result in a Growing Distribution Rate Base
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$ Millions
Dis
trib
utio
n R
ate
Bas
e(E
lect
ric a
nd G
as)

14
For CL&P, 2003 Was Marked By Important Legislation, Regulation
Public Act signed into law June 25, 2003 Transitional standard offer took effect January 1, 2004 Rate cap raised 11.1% for 2004 and beyond Procurement fee of 0.5/mill began January 1
Additional 0.25 mill incentive can be earned Could produce $12-$18 million/year of additional revenue
Flow through of all energy related and “federally mandated” costs
Rate decision effective January 1, 2004 Distribution rates set for four years Transmission rates increased $28 million Distribution ROE of 9.85% Endorsement of $900 million distribution capital program

15
Key Factors in CL&P’s First Quarter Results Expected to Continue
Positive Distribution rate increase Transmission rate increase Sales growth Procurement fee
Negative Lower pension income Higher depreciation

16
PSNH Update
December 2003: PSNH filed rate case requesting 2.6% ($21 million) increase
Hearings in early August Decision will be retroactive to February 2004
January 2004: PSNH closed on Connecticut Valley Electric Co. acquisition
$9 million for assets (11,000 customer accounts); $21 million to buy down power contract
February 2004:Energy supply rate rose to 5.36 cents/kwh from 4.6 – 4.67 cents
Based on estimated costs of owned generation and market purchases of power
PSNH’s NHPUC approved proposed $70 million conversion of Schiller unit to burn wood (waste)
Settlement on risk sharing mechanism now before regulators

17
Yankee Gas Update
Increasing pension costs hurting financial performance
New rate design produces more balanced quarterly earnings
Rate case to be filed this summer to be effect in 2005
New projects advance 9-mile extension of main in southeast Connecticut
approved by regulators and due for completion October 1
Compliance filing on LNG storage facility due with regulators in June

18
WMECO Update
Power supply costs continue to be fully tracking
Continued cost management needed to offset falling pension credit
More modest capital expenditure program
Transition period ends in March 2005

19
Generation Has Not Been Sited Where It’s Needed, Creating Bottlenecks
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Generation
Load
5%
10% 10%
15%
21%
28%27% 25%26%
New England has added 9,000 MW of generation capacity since 1998.
Surplus Generation
Adequate Generation
Marginal Conditions
Deficient
But it has been added in the wrong locations!
Source: 2003 CELT Report
More transmission is needed to move power from capacity rich areas to those in need.
Reserve Margins

20
$14B Spent on Buying and Building Generation in 1997–2002; $500M Spent on Transmission
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
1997-2002ConstructedGeneration
1997-2002PurchasedGeneration
(initial sale from utility)
1997-2002NU, Nat Grid. NStar
ConstructedTransmission
(in millions)

21
ISO-NE’s Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP 03) Calls For Over $1.2B in Investment* By NU
* For some projects, RTEP 03 cost estimates have been updated based on more current information. ** NU’s Share
ME
RICT
MA
VT
NH
New Hampshire• Deerfield STATCOM $33 M• 115kV Upgrades $37 M• Scobie – Tewksbury 345kV Line** $15 M• Fitzwilliam 345 / 115kV Transformer** $15 M • Bedford/Tioga 115/34.5kV Substation $13 M• Deerfield 345/115kV Transformer $6 M• Upgrades in White Mountains Area $6 M Total $125 M
Massachusetts• Springfield Area Cable Replacement $32 M
Connecticut• Bethel-Norwalk $200 M• Middletown-Norwalk ** $496 M• Glenbrook Cables $75 M • Card-Lake Rd-Sherman 345kV line** $94 M• Long Island Replacement Cable ** $45 M• Eastern CT $42 M• Glenbrook STATCOM $41 M• Haddam 345/115kV Transformer $26 M• Manchester-Barbour Hill $18 M Total $1,037 M

22
Transmission Business: Major Capital Projects
* CL&P’s 80% share
(Bethel
to Norwalk)
(Middletown
to Norwalk)
Siting Process Construction
20062005200420032001 2002 2007
$200 M
$496 M *
2008
Capital Program $26 M $55 M $99 M $270 M $240 M $200 M $200 M $200 M
Phase I
Phase II
7/03: Siting Council decision 12/03: Norwalk Substation expansion began 7/04: 115kV & 345kV underground construction begins 8/04: Gas-Insulated Substation starts 12/04: Overhead line orders under contract
5/03: Municipal consultation 10/03: Siting Council application filed 12/03 – 2/04: Public hearings process 3/04 –6/04: Adjudicative hearings 6/04: DEP filing (estimated) 12/04: Siting Council decision

23
NU Enterprises Had Strong First Quarter
First Quarter 2004 Full-Year Projection
Merchant Energy $19.1 $24 - $31
Services and Parent
($0.3) $4 - $7
Total $18.8 $28 - $38
(earnings in millions)

24
Contributing Factors To First Quarter Improvements
Seasonal pricing of wholesale contracts
Retail profitability
Expiration of old Select – CL&P contract
Strong generator operating performance

25
Region Company Service Start Date
TermTotal Load (MW)
AmountsWon
New England
MECO Default 11/1/03 3 mos. to 1 yr.
900 700 MW
NSTAR SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 1,600 650 MW
UI TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 1,200 -
CL&P TSO 1/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 5,000 1,875 MW
WMECO SO & DS 1/1/04 3 to 14 mos. 710 450 MW
NSTAR Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 300 Not announced
WMECO Ind. Default 4/1/04 3 mos. 50 -
MECO Default 5/1/04 3 mos. to 1 yr.
800 Not announced
NSTAR Default 7/01/04 3 mos. to 1 yr.
1,050 Not announced
PJM NJ IOUs BGS (fixed & hrly.)
6/1/04 1 to 3 yrs. 17,960 1,000 MW
MD IOUs CO 7/1/04 11 to 35 mos.
5,500 300 MW
Calendar of Bids in Wholesale Electric Market

26
Summary
2004 earnings projection consistent with street consensus NU forecast of $1.20 to $1.40 per share
Street range of $1.25 to $1.36 per share
Plans for transmission buildout progressing
Profitability of competitive businesses increasing
Financial and credit profile strong and remains a priority