After Chávez: Public Opinion on Chavismo and Venezuela's Future

March 15, 2013

Presenter Information

Máximo Zaldívar, IFES Regional Adviser for the Americas and Chief of Party in Guatemala

Maximo Zaldivar serves as Chief of Party in Guatemala. He has more than 15 years of experience in elections; political party and leadership development. Originally from El Salvador, he has led democracy and governance programs around the world, most recently in East Timor (Timor Leste). He has also served in Venezuela, Colombia and Southern Sudan, for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Office for Transition Initiatives (OTI) funded programs. In Venezuela, he worked from 2003 until 2007, interacting closely with political parties and civil society, as well as witnessing crucial electoral events in Venezuela’s democratic history, like the 2004 Recall Referendum and the 2006 presidential elections.

Presenter Information

Clifford Young, SVP and Managing Director, U.S. Public Sector, Ipsos Public Affairs

Dr. Clifford Young is managing director of Public Sector and Polling in the United States, and also leads Ipsos’ global elections and political polling risk practice. His research specialties include social and public opinion trends, crisis management, political risk polling and election polling. He has worked with a wide variety of corporate, government, media and political clients. He currently oversees Ipsos’ U.S. presidential election polling for Thomson Reuters, and is the spokesperson for Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States.

What will be the Chávez legacy from a public opinion perspective?

Presidential Approval by Proximity to Targeted Social Programs: Venezuela (Misiones) and Bolsa Família (Brazil)

20%

50%

63%

79%

94%

43%

55%

54%

76% 76%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Zero 1 thru 3 4 thru 6 7 thru 9 10 or more

Venezuela Brazil

73% of Venezuelans benefit

or know someone who

benefits from the Misiones

To what extent do Venezuelans support State nationalism and

State intervention in the economy? How has this

changed over time?

Support for government intervention in the economy together with also market-friendly policies

34

43

44

48

49

50

57

57

58

70

72

Forbidding foreigners to own land

Government control of all actions taken by foreigncompanies

Government control of all foreign properties in the country

Government control of all the foreign capital invested in thecountry

Government conrol of the Basic Basket even if this does notreduce poverty

Government owning the production of the country's naturalresources even if this does not reduce poverty

Government owning the country's natural resources

Government control of important industries

Carrying out land reform

Government control of the Basic Basket

Opening the Venezuelan market to foreign products

August

Percent Agree

Government control of the Basic Basket even if this does

not reduce poverty

Who is likely to win in an upcoming election? Chávez’s

successor or opposition? Why?

Fundamentals in Capriles’ favor

• The economy has taken a turn for the worse

• GDP 2012 5.2

• GDP 2013 1.8 (projected)

• Capriles’ favorability scores better than those of Maduro

• Incumbents have a 2.6 greater likelihood of winning

• Maduro is not an incumbent, but

a successor

Fundamentals in Capriles’ favor

• Relatively lukewarm polling numbers given that a successor is running

• Right Track 47%

• Approval Ratings 55%

• If modeled statistically, Maduro has about a 51% chance of winning, so the election should be a toss-up.

Approval rating 55

Incumbent (Probability of Victory) 98%

Successor (Probability of Victory) 51%

But could Chávez’s death trigger a sympathy vote?

Yes, it probably will….

The Chávez Bump

• There is about an 11-point positive bump in approval ratings as a result of deaths and similar events.

• If modeled statistically, this increases Maduro’s chances from 51% to 73%.

Approval rating 55 66

Incumbent (Probability of Victory) 98% 100%

Successor (Probability of Victory) 51% 73%

Appendices

Equal numbers now believe Venezuela is on the right track as those who believe it is on the wrong track

10

36

54

10

38

52

6

47

47

DK/NS

Wrong track

Right Direction

Jan-13

Sep-12

Aug-12

Q1. In your opinion, overall, do you think Venezuela is in the right or wrong track?

Right Track

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

Chávez still enjoys majority support

63

58

54

50

63

55

The job that PresidentHugo Chavez is doing

The performance of thegovernment

Jan-13

Sep-12

Aug-12

The job that President

Hugo Chávez is doing

Percent Approve

Q2. Now I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of…

Capriles seen as more favorable than Maduro

32

34

39

41

46

54

57

62

75

53

57

55

48

52

41

42

36

25

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Henri Falcon

Pablo Perez

Leopoldo Lopez

Adan Chavez

Diosdado Cabello

Elias Jaua

Nicolas Maduro

Henrique Capriles

Hugo Chávez

Very/Mainly Favorable Very/Mainly Unfavorable Unaware/ DK

Q5. Above are the names of some public figures of Venezuela. What is your opinion of them?

Nicolás Maduro

Adán Chávez

Leopoldo López

Pablo Pérez

Henri Falcón

Elías Jaua

Candidate Matchup: Maduro versus Capriles

41

53

3 3

Henrique Capriles

Nicolás Maduro

Neither

DK

Henrique Capriles vs Nicolás Maduro

In the event that elections are held again this year, which candidate would you vote for in the following matchup?

Nicolás Maduro

Crime and Violence are Main Concerns

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

2

1

2

3

3

5

19

57

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

4

4

3

10

4

3

2

17

50

Taxes

The current polarization or division…

*Freedom of speech

Energy

*Maintaining social programs

*Moral decline

Education

*President Chavez's health

Inflation

Corruption and financial or political…

Food availability

Garbage and sanitary services

Poverty and social inequality

Health care

Unemployment/ Lack of jobs

Crime and violence

Jan-13

Sep-12

Q3a. Which issue or problem do you find the most worrying in Venezuela?

*Not asked in Wave 2

*President Chávez’s health

Unemployment/Lack of jobs

Healthcare

57

Thank you!