African Downstream Market Presented at UNCTAD’s Africa – OGTF Conference Nairobi, Kenya 23-25...
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African Downstream Market Presented at UNCTAD’s Africa – OGTF Conference Nairobi, Kenya 23-25 May, 2007 NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
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Transcript of African Downstream Market Presented at UNCTAD’s Africa – OGTF Conference Nairobi, Kenya 23-25...
African Downstream Market
Presented at UNCTAD’s
Africa – OGTF Conference
Nairobi, Kenya23-25 May, 2007
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
Refineries in Africa
1. African Market Growth
Oil Products Demand in Africa
• Oil products demand in Africa accounted for 3.5% of global demand in 2006
• Data difficult to collect, big delays in data availability; only annual data (except South Africa)
• Total oil products demand in SSA in 2005 = 120 million MT (2.6 million b/d), growing by 5.3% y/y (2004-2005)
Oil Products Demand in Africa
Africa Demand Growth2001-2005
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
average 3.6% per annum growth
%
North Africa West & Central Africa
Southern & East Africa TOTAL
Oil Products Demand in Africa
Africa Demand2000-2005
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
average 3.6% per annum growth
'000 MT
North Africa Sub- Saharan Africa
2. Refining Margins
Refining Margins from a Conversion Refinery: Europe
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
$/bbl
Refining Margins: Europe, Cracking
European Cracking Margins J an'06-Apr'07
0.00
1.002.00
3.004.00
5.00
6.007.00
8.009.00
10.00
2006 2007
Source: I EA
$/bbl
NWE Brent NWE UralsMed Es Sider Med Urals
Refining Margins on Crude Distillation: Europe
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
$/bbl
Refining Margins: Europe, Hydroskimming
European Hydroskimming Margins J an'06-Apr'07
-5.50
-4.50
-3.50
-2.50
-1.50
-0.50
0.50
2006 2007
Source: IEA
$/bbl
NWE Brent NWE UralsMed Es Sider Med Urals
3. Necessity for Investment
Refineries in Africa
000 b/cdCrude Vacuum Total CC Equivalence Desul-
Country Company Location Distillation Distillation Reforming Cracking ¹ as % CDU phurisation
WEST & CENTRAL AFRICA:Angola Fina Luanda 45 3 3 0 0.0 6Cameroon SoNaRa Limbe 45 0 8 0 0.0 29Congo B Coraf Refinery Pointe-Noire 21 8 2 3 12.5 4Cote d'I voire SIR Abidjan 77 26 13 22 25.4 45
SMB Abidjan 10 0 0 0 0.0 0Gabon Sogara Port Gentil 17 0 1 3 20.0 5Ghana TOR Tema 45 0 7 14 31.1 18Nigeria Kaduna Refinery Kaduna 110 36 15 18 16.4 38
Port Harcourt I & I I Port Harcourt 210 54 39 40 23.5 48Warri Refinery Warri 125 34 16 25 20.8 24
Senegal SAR Dakar 27 8 2 0 0.0 2
West & Central Africa TOTAL: 732 169 106 124 18.2 217
EAST & SOUTH AFRICA:Kenya KPRL Mombasa 86 0 8 0 0.0 36South Africa Calref Cape Town 110 52 10 32 29.3 62
Engen Refinery Durban 125 32 19 25 19.7 75Natref Sasolburg 86 0 15 32 37.0 40Petro SA Mossel Bay 45Sapref Durban 165 60 29 44 26.8 100
Sudan Khartoum Refinery Khartoum 110 38 18 103 93.6 42Zambia Indeni Refinery Ndola 24 2 5 0 0.0 9
South & East Africa TOTAL: 750 184 103 154 21.8 363
TOTAL SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: 1,483 353 209 278 20.0 580
¹ Expressed in terms of catalytic cracking equivalence
Configuration of Refining Capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa at Year-end 2005
Possible African Refining Developments:
• Sonangol’s Lobito refinery project (200,000 b/d);
• TOR in Ghana planning second topping and RFCC units;
• SIR Abidjan, 1 million mt/yr debottlenecking;
• SoNaRa announced refinery expansion;• Possibilities of new refineries in Nigeria;• Possible new refinery in Port Sudan;• Plans for expansions and new refineries in
Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
CITAC Africa LLPBelgrave House
76 Buckingham Palace RoadLondon SW1W 9TQ
UK
Tel.: +44(0)20 7343 0014Fax: +44(0)20 7343 0015
E-mail: [email protected]: www.citac.com
