AFRICAN COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

Twentieth SessionAlgiers, Algeria, 10-13 December 2007

AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL STATISTICS TO SUPPORT THE

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

POLICIES AND STRATEGIC INVESTMENT OPTIONS IN ZAMBIA

Lay out of PresentationLay out of Presentation1. Introduction2. Major Cropping Systems3. Availability of Sub-National Statistics4. Mix of Production Inputs Used In Major

Cropping Systems5. Type and Costs of farm inputs6. Factors that Influence choice of Crops

grown7. Source Institutions for Data8. Relevant Surveys9. Type of Data Collected10. Conclusion

1. Introduction1. Introduction

• Liberalisation started in 1991• Target of liberalisation at Farm level - agric input

and output marketing• Need for reliable farm level planning• Focus of farmer on Agric production and

marketing• Farmer has to Identify objectives, available

resources• Capacity to prod needed quantities • Need to assess input and output markets

IntroductionIntroduction Cntd Cntd

• Assess means of production• At macro level, Informed decision making

budgetary allocations, tax rates, subsidies, incentive packages, prioritization and various regulatory measures for effective agric devpnt

policies & strategic investment options • Need for relevant and accurate data To inform

evaluation exercise

2.2. Major Cropping SystemsMajor Cropping Systems Smallholder Cropping System• Characteristic, growing between 0-5 Ha.• Contbt 65 % to 70 % of maize production• 100 % of millet, sorghum, sweet potatoes,

rice, groundnuts, mixed beans, bambara nuts pumpkins.

• Also grow paprika and water melons

2.12.1 Commercial Cropping SystemCommercial Cropping System

• Farmers cultivating more than 20 hectares

• Raising exotic species of livestock and/or poultry

• Produce 30 to 35 % of national maize production

• Exported horticultural and floriculture products

2.32.3 Rainfed Cropping SystemRainfed Cropping System

• November to March

• All the maize grown for grain

• All crops grown by smallholder sector

• Output varies with state of the season

• Erratic/Fluctuations in output levels

2.42.4 Irrigated Cropping PatternsIrrigated Cropping Patterns

• National Water Policy of 1994 • promotion of community and private sector

participation• large agribusiness estates;• individual commercial farms;• contract grower groups;• outgrower agricultural groups; • associations of smallholders.

Irrigated Cropping PatternsIrrigated Cropping Patterns CntdCntd

• Total area of 752,612 sq. km (75 million Ha)

• irrigation potential estimated at 500,000 hectares, only 40,000 Ha (8%) currently irrigated

• More than 58% (42 million Ha) suitable for agricultural production

• Only 14 to 16 percent of arable land is cultivated

• 20.2% contribution to GDP in 2006

Irrigated Cropping PatternsIrrigated Cropping Patterns CntdCntd

Irrigation Schemes by Size  Total area of small irrigation schemes- 111,525Total area of medium irrigation schemes - 7,372Total area of large irrigation schemes- 37,015

2.52.5 Tillage SystemsTillage Systems

• Hand hoeing

• Ploughing (ox-drawn)

• Mechanical tillage (tractor power), applied by large scale commercial farmers

• Conservation farming encompassing, potholing, ridging across slopes. and ripping

3.3. Availability of Sub-National StatisticsAvailability of Sub-National Statistics

• Nine provinces

• 72 Districts

• Area planted to crop

• Area harvested

• Production quantities

• Yield per hectare

• Marketed produce (quantity expected to be sold for all reported crops)

4.4. Mix of Production Inputs Used In Mix of Production Inputs Used In Major Cropping SystemsMajor Cropping Systems

• commercial cropping system Improved seed (hybrid), Inorganic fertilizers, Supplementary water ( modern sophisticated

irrigation methods), Agrochemicals, Labour, andTrained management

Mix of Production Inputs Used In Major Mix of Production Inputs Used In Major Cropping Systems Cntd.Cropping Systems Cntd.

• smallholder cropping systemRecycled local seed and hybrid seedNutrients (organic and inorganic fertilizer),Supplementary water (simple irrigation

methods), Labour.

5.5. Type and Costs of farm inputsType and Costs of farm inputs

• Data on types of inputs used,

• Quantities and costs

• These will offer guidance in the choice of investment options at the farm level

• Type and costs of farm inputs are determined by the type of crops grown

6.6. Factors that Influence choice of Factors that Influence choice of Crops grownCrops grown

I. Rainfall

II. Type of soil at the disposal of the farmer

III. Availability of irrigation facilities

IV. Gross margin budgeting,

• Variable Costs

• Fixed Costs • Fixed Costs

6.16.1 Gross MarginGross Margin

• Enterprise total income less variable costs

• A positive Gross Margin is indicative of potential profit

• Basis for investment plan for the future

7.7. Source Institutions for DataSource Institutions for Data • Central Statistical Office (CSO)• Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives• Zambia National Farmers’ Union• Department of Meteorology (DOM)• National Food and Nutrition Commission (NFNC) under

the Ministry of Health• Millers Association of Zambia (MAS)• Parastatal and Private companies such as Zamseed,

Food Reserve Agency, Sasol, Kynock and Omnia• NGOs such as Programme Against Malnutrition, Oxfarm,

CARE, World Vision• International Agencies such as FAO, WFP, UNICEF and

FEWSNet.

8.8. Relevant SurveysRelevant Surveys

• Housing and Population Census• Crop Forecast Survey (CFS)• Post Harvest Survey (PHS)• Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS),

done bi-annually• Food Health And Nutrition Survey

(FHANIS),Expected to be done quarterly. • Vulnerability Assessments

9.9. Type of Data CollectedType of Data Collected

• Crop conditions;• Area planted;• Area harvested• Quantities, varieties and prices of inputs

distributed, sold and utilized; (seed, fertilizer, lime)

• Crop production estimates;• Yield per hectare;• Grain stocks and prices;• Amounts of food aid distributed;• Planned imports and exports of inputs and grain;

Type of Data Collected Cntd.Type of Data Collected Cntd.

• Weather forecasts;• Availability and disbursement of

loans/credit;• Crop husbandry practices;• Performance of extension services;• Farm and off-farm incomes;• Farm assets; and• Livestock and fisheries statistics.

1010 ConclusionConclusion

• need for harmonization of similar data • surveys versus administrative records

• More capacity needs to be invested in data cleaning and analysis

• ensure comprehensive and complete analysis of all survey questions

• Relevant data is available & can be analysed by cropping system to guide policy evaluation and strategic investment decisions

END OF PRESENTATIONEND OF PRESENTATION

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

MERCI BEAUCOUP

ASANTE SANA

SHOUKRAN