African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
Transcript of African animal agriculture: Grasping opportunities
African animal agriculture:Grasping opportunities
International Livestock CongressHouston, USA, March 4-5, 2015
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents tremendous markets for smallholders and also big suppliers –animal products and inputs
• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges –which are being turned into OPPORTUNITIES
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health
4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2014(values for 2012)
Cow milk has overtaken rice
Eggs havedisplacedmaize
Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
0
100
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1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Mill
ion m
etr
ic t
onnes
developing countries
developed countries
Hypothetical: Ifdeveloping-countryper capitaconsumption rateequalled that ofdeveloped countries
Per capita global kilocalorie
availability from edible animal products
Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
7FAO, 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030
Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how
Scenario #1Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how
Scenario #1Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how
Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how
Scenario #1Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3Africa meets
livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems
Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder andpastoral systems; little part in the production response
− Multiple endemicdiseases− Zoonoses− Adaptive capacity− Movement controls
Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience
‘High growth with externalities’
Mostly monogastric− China for all commodities
− Environmental- Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares
Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities
The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestockproduction systems of developing countries
play huge (often unnoticed)roles in global food supplies
Crop-livestock systems
These mixed farming systemsproduce much of our meat and milk
• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% mixed temperate
– Latin America: 48% mixed humid
– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk
– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-livestock farms, regardless of region
– The big increases in milk productionto 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East
Tropical arid and semi-arid rangeland based systems
population density less than 20 persons/km²
length of growing period (LGP) less than 60
days/annum
no significant crop production possible
Largest land use system on earth
35 million km2 – 24% of the total land
area
Support 50% of the World’s livestock
Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
Multipurpose rangelands
for livelihoods and the
environment
Livestock productivity
“sustainable
intensification”
Environmental
stewardship
“Payment for
Ecosystem
Services”
Animal traction remains essential forcrop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa
7 million oxen are the main source of powerfor tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands
NOTE: Production efficiencies in US dairy
Source: Capper et al. 2009
Improved feeds,
breeds & health
=
4-fold increase
in milk
The Economist (23 February, 2015)
The Meat We Eat, the Lives We Lift
http://www.economistinsights.com/opinion/meat-we-eat-lives-we-lift