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Africa is Rising, Where is The Evidence?

Effective Politics and Policy Making in the New AfricaAll rights reserved 2015 | Nkunimdini Asante-Antwi | Metis Decisions LLC

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Africa is RisingWho are the key drivers and what can the laggards learn? What role forthe African Entrepreneur?

A Broader ViewFact Sheet54 Countries 2nd most populous after Asia (estimated at 1.1 billion)Libya was the first to gain independence in 1951.South Sudan was the last; on July 9, 2011 from another African country.Home to worlds leading cocoa output (2/3 of global production)30% of worlds mineral reserves.Zimbabwe; 2nd largest platinum reserves.2nd most widely spoken language is Arabic (100m+)

The Narrative

Africas Basket

In 2012, total GDP of Africa was $1.3trn, equating to 2.5% of worlds $54trn (source: Old Mutual Investment Group). GNI per capita; South Africa ($6,800), Nigeria ($2,850).124 kWh per capita annually.Africas poorest households are spending around $10 per kilowatt-hour on lighting20 times more than Africas richest households. Compare, that to U.S where national average cost for electricity is $0.12 per kWh and in the United Kingdom is $0.15 per kWh (Africa Progress Panel).Notwithstanding freedom and democracy, popular participation and social inclusion remain crucial policy imperatives.B.R.I.C.S or B.R.I.N.C.S?40%

Business Constraint - Infrastructure

Governance StructuresAfrica Union 8 Economic Regional Communities (REC) African Development Bank (AfDB)Civil Society Organizations such as; IMANI Ghana (Ghana), African Economic Research Consortium (Kenya), Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) Egypt, Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA) (Nigeria) etc.SADC

Lagos Plan of Action1980-2000

The Business Environment

4.5% Real GDP Growth Forecast 2015 (AfDB)

6.1 billion (70% of global population) to access SMART phones by 2020.

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Behind every corrupt politician are 10-20 corrupt businessmen.- Mo IbrahimAssessing Policy and Political RisksPolicy DiscontinuationSupply chain exposure; an emerging political risk for African entrepreneurs.Political victimization.Over-emphasis of FDIs at the expense of building local entrepreneurial capacity.

$150 billionAnnual cost of corruption - A.U Study, 2002

Knowledge is power. Information is liberating. Education is the premise of progress, in every society, in every family.-Kofi AnnanThe Social Sector Emerging RisksLibya and Botswana leads Africa in Human Development Index (HDI) performance. Rwanda, Burundi and South Africa ranks #7, #17 and #18 respectively on the Global Gender Gap Index Report, 2014, ahead of U.S.A and U.KLanguage and culture continue to be a barrier to regional integration.The teaching of critical thinking and problem-solving at all levels of the education ladder, particularly, tertiary, remains a key challenge to business growth and wealth-creation.

Socio-cultural Risk Indicators (SRIs)World University RankingsNo African University in first 200, not even South Africa.Fudan University, China (193) and Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia (196) all members of BRICS, are featured in same. (Source: Times Higher Education World University Ranking.)

Human Development Index 2014CountriesIndexRankingNorway0.9441Australia0.9332Libya0.78455Botswana0.683109Egypt0.682110U.K0.738326

Last 18 countries all in Africa

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURES

Ive always said we must overcome our thinking of being the sole owner of our businesses, and that is one of the drawbacks of Ghanaian businesses.-John Dramani Mahama (President, Ghana)Less than 15% are Limited Liability

Over 60% - Sole ProprietorshipsOthers

40% of GNP in low-income economies produced by informal sector (World Bank).

EconomyOverviewStrategy & StructureAverage growth over last 10 yearsFinancial IntermediationInfrastructureGlobal trade balanceFrontier market debt finance

Data Source: AfDB Statistics Dept.

Euro Area 1.5%, 2015. IMF

Japan 1.0%, 2015

Economy (Contd)FiscalPerformanceMonetary DevelopmentGhana: Deposit/GDP increased from 20.7% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2011. Debit card usage (% age 15+) is 11.4%. DMB asset/GDP moved from 23.9% in 2010 to 23.1% in 2011.South Africa: Deposit/GDP was 59.1% in 2011 from 59.2% prior year. Debit card usage (% age 15+) was 45.3% in 2011. DMB Asset/GDP inched downwards to 78.8% in 2011 from 82.5% in 2010.

Cash Surplus/GDP (%)Data Source: Africa Devt. Indicators (ADI), IMFData source: Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), IMF)

Equity & Debt MarketsSouth Africa: Mutual funds assets to GDP/ratio was 30.6% in 2011, down from 38.9% in 2010. Stock market capitalization to GDP ratio trended southwards from 200.9% in 2010 to 145.2% in 2011.India: Mutual fund asset/GDP ratio (2010: 6.6%, 2011: 4.6%). Stock market capitalization/GDP ratio was down in 2011 (68.7%) from 82.8% in 2010.Brazil: Mutual fund asset/GDP ratio (2010: 44.1%, 2011: 46.5%). Stock market capitalization/GDP ratio was down in 2011 (58.3%) from 67.1% in 2010.Ghana:

2010: 9.5%

2011: 8.4%Data source: Global Financial Development Database (GFDD), IMF.

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Technological ChangesMobile subscriptions in Q1 2015 was 910million (Africa), according to Ericsson Mobility Report 2015. This includes 21 million new subscriptions. Africa, Asia and Middle East are expected to drive global growth going forward.Growth has been driven broadly by sector liberalization that has allowed competitiveness and investments in infrastructure by private actors.

2012: 14.6% | 2013: 16.9% | 2014: 19.2%Internet Users per 100 PeopleSource: Internetworldstats.com

High-speed broadband | Fibre & Wi-Fi Networks$500mE-commerce or M-commerce?

What Are the Lessons?Leaders and Laggards

Governance & DemocracyLeader: Ghana or Botswana?Increasing use of law courts to settle political disputes and protect human rights.Strong and vibrant media with assertive civil society sector led by IMANI Ghana.Botswana adjudged #1 Global Rule of Law Index according to World Justice Project (WJP).

C.A.R Laggard?the security situation [in CAR] remains volatile and clashes between anti-Balaka [militias] and ex-Slka elements continue, while criminal activities aimed at, among other things, controlling the countrys natural resources are increasing.-Ban Ki Moon (UN Sec Gen.)

Human DevelopmentLibya Leader?Ranks number 1 in Africa and # 55 globally on the 2014 Human Development Index.Included in the High Human Development category with countries such as Russia, China and Brazil.Niger Laggard?Ranks last (187th) globally.Included in Low Human Development category with countries such as Eritrea, Chad and Malawi.Source: Human Development Index, 2014.

Economic GrowthNigeria Leader?USD 568.5 billion GDP by year-end 2014, according to World Bank data, making Nigeria the 22nd biggest economy after Sweden.The countrys GDP outstripped South Africa in 2014 to be the biggest in Africa, growing at 6.3% in 2014.This notwithstanding unemployment is still high, estimated at 25.1% in 2014.Zimbabwe Laggard?Average real GDP growth over decade covering 2003-2013 was -1.6%.Experienced strongest performance in 2010 (9.6%), slowing down to 6.0% in 2013.High inflation

Source: Global GDP Ranking, 2014. World Bank.

TechnologySouth Africa Leader?Internet penetration was 49% in 2014, compared to 38% for Nigeria.Estimated 133% mobile phone and 47% Smart phone penetration compared to 72% and 29% respectively for Nigeria on same metrics.13% of age 15yrs+ used electronic platforms for payment in 2011 compared to SSA average of 2.1% same year. (GFFD)

Sierra Leone Laggard?7.2% mobile penetration as at 2012 (least in Africa).Only 1.7% of the countrys 5.7 million people use the Internet.Source: Internetworldstats.com

Financial IntermediationSouth Africa Leader?Highest DMBs deposits/GDP ratio (59.1%) in 2011.DMBs asset/GDP ratio very high (82.5%, 2010), enabling big-ticket deal financing from domestic sources.Uganda Laggard?DMBs asset/GDP ratio quite modest (19.1%, 2011)Deposit/GDP ratio in 2010 was 16.7% while 2011 registered 17.8%Source: Global Financial Development Database (GFFD), World Bank

Ease of Doing BusinessMauritius Leader?Aggressive reforms implemented to improve the ease of doing business. Score: 28 out of 189 economies surveyed by IFC.5 procedures to start business in 6 days with cost 2.1% of per capita income.4 documents to export goods in approx. 10 days. Cost per container; $6755 documents with 9 days import turnaround time, costing $710 per container.Eritrea Laggard?Ranks as the most difficult place to do business (189th) across 189 economies survey by IFC in 2014.It takes 13 procedures in 84 days with 41.5% of per capita income as cost to start a business.It takes about 490 days and approx. 22.6% of claims sought to enforce contracts.It takes an average of 54 days for import/export.Source: Doing Business Report 2015, IFC.

Globalizers and LocalizersThe Stark Evidence

Meet Eric KinotiCompany: Shades Systems (EA) LimitedFounded: 2007Sector: Light Manufacturing (Tents)Role: Founder Asset Size: Not AvailableAnnual Revenue: USD 1millionNo. of Employees: 18

It was never easy, and it will never be easy to start up. I faced a lot of difficulties, so many hurdles and obstaclesbut I was determined to make my dream a reality.

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Meet Bright SimonsCompany: mPedigree NetworkFounded: 2007 (Re-launched 2009)Sector: TechnologyRole: Founder and CEOAsset Size: Not AvailableAnnual Revenue: Not AvailableNo. of Employees: Not AvailableSome Key Clients: AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Tropical Cables Conductor Ltd.

that experience opened my eyes to a whole new world of fighting the systemof being an activist. And this led directly to my becoming a technology innovator.

Meet Patrick NgowiCompany: Helvetic GroupFounded: 2007Sector: Renewable Energy (Solar)Role: Founder and CEOAsset Size: USD 15millionAnnual Revenue: USD 5m (2013)No. of Employees: Not AvailableKey Markets: Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi.

You should start small, with lean operations, and scale up as you go along. I started my solar company being the only employee, going on roof tops to install one solar panel at a time.

Meet Tunde KehindeCompany: Jumia Nigeria Founded: 2012Sector: Online RetailRole: Co-founder (Resigned 2014)Asset Size: Not AvailableAnnual Revenue: Not AvailableNo. of Employees: 1000+Key Markets: Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt

Meet Khaled Shady Company: MubserFounded: 2013Sector: Technology Role: Founder Asset Size: Not AvailableAnnual Revenue: Not AvailableNo. of Employees: Not Available

Mubser was our teams graduation project and we decided to take it to the next level to make it a startup to support the millions of blind and visually impaired people.

Meet Winifred SelbyCompany: Ghana Bamboo Bikes Initiative / Afrocentric Bamboo LtdFounded: 2010Sector: Light ManufacturingRole: Co-founder Asset Size: Not AvailableAnnual Revenue: Not AvailableNo. of Employees: NotKey Markets: EU, U.S.A

Because we discovered that, there were many bamboo plants in Ghana people took for granted. So we wanted to add value to that to address the transport needs of people.

Now, Meet Joshua

Abasua Mountain

FarmingTourist Support ServicesMicro-trading

Meet David Too

21.8%Child Labour (5-17yrs)Source: GH Living Standards Survey 6

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Finally, Meet Ama AkyeaSchool Attendance Status (5-17yrs)NeverCurrentlyUsed ToFemale6.188.35.6Rural9.285.45.3Urban2.292.75.1

Data Source: GLSS6

33% of 26million 5-17yrs

The Role of African EntrepreneurRestoring Human Dignity

South AfricaAve. unemployment last 15yrs25.27%

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Where Do We Start?EmpathyCollaborations and Business CombinationsFormalizationMentoring and CoachingLong-term InvestmentsScaling GloballyCollaborate with Higher Education

Responsive RegulationBridging Infrastructure GapFiscal and Monetary DisciplineInstitutional StrengtheningTax Regime Rationalization

Wave of the Future

Mobile/Data

value chain gaps persist in traditional sectors; agric and industry.

Personal

CorporatePublic Policy

The EndOut of Darkness comes a great lightOut of despair rises new hopeOut of the concrete, the flower growsOut of stillness a wild wind blowsWisdom for the wise Poetry for the youngArise and take your place under the sun, Africa.

Presented by Nkunimdini Asante-AntwiFounder, Metis Decisions LLC

+233 505 767 865+233 202 952 658

nkunimdini.antwi@metisdecisions.com