Affordable Housing Master Plan Review

Affordable Housing Master Plan ReviewHousing Needs Analysis

January 21,2021

2

Agenda

Overview of the Affordable Housing Master Plan five-year review

Housing Needs Analysis, Jeannette Chapman1. Changes in population and demographics2. Current housing affordability and housing gaps3. Forecast of population and housing needs

What’s Next? Upcoming Events

3

AHMP Five-year Review Process

Update of Needs Analysis

Five-year AHMP Report

Community feedback on Needs Analysis and AHMP progress

Housing Commission Subcommittee Review

Development of Implementation Framework 2.0

Presentation of Review to County Board

Community Review of Implementation Framework

Summer 2021

January 21, 2020

Jeannette ChapmanDirector

The Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government

George Mason University

Arlington County Housing Needs Analysis:An Update

• Diversity Housing affordability directly contributes to the community’s diversity by enabling a wide range of households to live in Arlington, especially households with limited means and special needs.

• Inclusivity Housing inclusivity supports a caring, welcoming community in which discrimination does not occur, housing opportunities are fair, and no one is homeless.

• Choice A range of housing choices should be available throughout our community and affordable to persons of all income levels and needs. Balanced housing choices benefit individuals and the community as a whole.

• Sustainability Housing affordability is vital to the community’s sustainability. It impacts the local economy and the natural and built environments. Affordable housing supports diverse jobs and incomes needed to sustain the local economy.

Arlington’s Housing Values

Population & Household Trends:2012 - 2018

34.4

16.8

60.3

35.9

24.5 21.0 18.8

40.8

19.8

53.3

38.1

27.3 22.3 23.5

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

<18(+18.7%)

18-24(+17.5%)

25-34(-11.6%)

35-44(+6.2%)

45-54(+11.5%)

55-64(+6.5%)

65+(+25.1%)

2012= 211,700

2018= 225,200

Population By Age GroupArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)

Source: 2012 & 2018 American Community Survey

% Change:

Total Change = +13,500 (+6.4%)

134.5

32.621.1 18.7

4.7

137.2

35.6 22.1 19.7

10.7 -

20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0

100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0

White, non-Hispanic(+2.0%)

Hispanic, any race(+9.2%)

Asian or PacificIslander, non-Hispanic

(+4.4%)

Black or AfricanAmerican, non-Hispanic

(+5.0%)

Multi-racial/other, non-Hispanic

(+124.9%)

2012= 211,700

2018= 225,200

Population By Race & EthnicityArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)


% Change:

Total Change = +13,500 (+6.4%)

2.0%

9.2%

4.4% 5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

White, non-Hispanic

Hispanic, anyrace

Asian or PacificIslander, non-

Hispanic

Black or AfricanAmerican, non-

Hispanic

Multi-racial/other,non-Hispanic

124.9%

Population % Change By Race & EthnicityArlington County, 2012 - 2018


Total Change = +6.4% (+13,500)

5.2 5.0

6.1 5.8

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

25-65(+18.4%)

65+(+17.3%)

2010-2012 Avg.= 10,120

2016-2018 Avg.= 11,930

Population w/A Disability By Age GroupArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)


% Change:

2.2

3.87

2.4

1.5

2.0

3.94

2.1

1.3

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

All Families w/Kids Families w/out Kids Non-Family Households

2012 2018

Average Household SizeArlington County, 2012 & 2018


32.7

18.213.7

16.1

6.1 5.62.9

33.7

23.9

17.1 16.3

8.3 6.2 4.5

- 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

Living Alone,under 65(+3.1%)

Married Couple,No Kids

(+31.2%)

Non-FamilyHousehold, Not

Living Alone(+24.2%)

Married Couple,w/Kids

(+1.7%)

Living Alone,65+

(34.9%)

Single Parent(+9.3%)

Other Family(+55.7%)

2012= 95,370

2018=109,940

Households By Household TypeArlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)


% Change:

Total Change = +14,570 (+15.3%)

4.06.8

12.5

8.7 9.88.5

11.513.0

7.7

12.8

5.0 6.6

12.7 10.0 9.2

7.9

12.7

19.1

10.1

16.8

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K $150-199K $200-249K $250K+

2012= 95,370

2018=109,940

Households By Household IncomeArlington County, 2012 & 2018

(Dollars Inflation-Adjusted to 2018 $, households in 000s)


Total Change = +14,570

24.8%

-3.8%

1.0%

14.7%

-6.8% -7.0%

9.6%

47.2%

31.7% 31.4%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K $150-199K $200-249K $250K+

Household % Change By Income GroupArlington County, 2012-2018 (Inflation-Adjusted to 2018 $)


Total Change = +15.3% (+14,570)

• Population

• Faster growth in 65+ & <18 year olds: more age diversity

• Faster growth in Hispanic & Multi-Racial residents: more racial & ethnic diversity

• Households

• Faster growth in 65+ living alone & in married couples w/out children

• Slow growth in married couples w/children & faster growth in single (unmarried)

parents; average # of children per family w/kids increased

• Faster growth in households earning $150,000+: less income diversity

Population & Household Trends Take-Aways

Questions about population or household trends?

Guideline of <30% of household income spent on housing:• >30% = “Housing Cost Burdened”• >50% = “Extremely Housing Cost Burdened”• Originated in the 1960s• Designed to leave enough income leftover for other needs• “Right” target varies by income, debt, family structure, transportation costs etc

Housing Cost Burden

61.5%

19.4% 19.2%

63.1%

20.0% 16.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

<30% 30-49% 50%+Percent of Household Income Spent on Rent

2012 2018

Distribution of Renter Households by Percent of Income Spent on Rent, 2012 & 2018


76.2%

16.0%7.8%

79.3%

13.2%7.5%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

<30% 30-49% 50%+Percent of Household Income Spent on Rent

2012 2018

Distribution of Owner Households by Percent of Income Spent on Owner Costs, 2012 & 2018


5.2 5.2

10.3

2.1

4.33.1

4.5

8.1

10.7

3.3 2.9 3.5

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

30-34% 35-49% 50%+ 30-34% 35-49% 50%+

2012(30,290 HHs)

2018(32,980 HHs)

Renters (+2,640) Owners (+400)

Total Change = 2,680

Households By Share of Income Spent on Housing Costs, Arlington County, 2012 & 2018 (000s)


37.5%31.9% 34.8% 33.2%

64.8%

26.8% 25.4%

15.7%21.2% 19.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

<25 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Renters(Total: 38.6% Burdened)

Owners(Total: 19.1% Burdened)

Housing Cost Burden Rates by Age of HouseholderArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.

Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey

52.4% 50.2%41.2% 38.7%

32.7%37.1%

24.1%17.6%

6.5%

18.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Black or AfricanAmerican, non-

Hispanic

Hispanic, any race Asian or PacificIslander, non-

Hispanic

Multi-racial/other,non-Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic



Housing Cost Burden Rates by Race/Ethnicity of Householder, Arlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


58.1%

37.1%27.5%

18.3%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%

With Disability W/out Disability



Housing Cost Burden Rates by Disability Status of Householder, Arlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


23.4%

42.8%

57.6%47.7% 43.1%

74.7%

24.4%

7.4%12.5%

34.1%24.4%

34.8% 35.2%

10.4%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%

Married, NoKids

Married,w/Kids

Single Parent Other Family Living Alone,under 65

Living Alone,65+

Non-FamilyHousehold,Not Living

Alone



Housing Cost Burden Rates by Household TypeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<$15K $15-29K $30-59K $60-79K $80-99K $100-119K $120-149K 150-199K $200-249K $250K+



Housing Cost Burden Rates by IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


• Lower-income households (owners & renters)

• Single-person households aged 65 or older (owners & renters)

• Householders with a disability (owners & renters)

• Single-parent households (owners & renters)

• Black or African American households (owners & renters)

• Hispanic households (owners & renters)

Highest Rates of Housing Cost Burden

Housing Costs & Housing Gaps: 2018

Distribution of Monthly Rent,Arlington County, 2016-2018 Average

Gross Rent Affordable HH Income

10th Percentile $1,229 $ 49,160 25th Percentile $1,570 $ 62,800 Median (50th Percentile) $1,967 $ 78,680 75th Percentile $2,432 $ 97,280 90th Percentile $3,032 $ 121,280

Average Cost $2,031 $ 81,240 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey

Distribution of Monthly Owner Costs:Households With a Mortgage

Arlington County, 2016-2018 AverageHome Owner

CostsAffordable HH

Income10th Percentile $1,667 $ 66,680 25th Percentile $2,265 $ 90,600 Median (50th Percentile) $3,001 $120,040 75th Percentile $4,002 $160,080 90th Percentile $5,200 $208,000

Average Cost $3,268 $130,720 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey

Distribution of Monthly Owner Costs:Households Without a Mortgage

Arlington County, 2016-2018 AverageHome Owner

CostsAffordable HH

Income10th Percentile $642 $ 25,680 25th Percentile $781 $ 31,240 Median (50th Percentile) $994 $ 39,760 75th Percentile $1,245 $ 49,800 90th Percentile $1,507 $ 60,280

Average Cost $1,047 $ 41,880 Source: 2016-2018 American Community Survey

Area Median Income$117,200 for a Family of Four (2018)

Income Maximum Affordable Monthly Housing Cost

Extremely Low Income: 0-30% AMI<$35,650: Family of Four<$24,650: Single Person

<$890: Family of Four<$615: Single Person

Very Low to Low Income: 30-60% AMI$35,650 - $70,320: Family of Four$24,650 - $49,225: Single Person

$890-$1,760: Family of Four$615-$1,230: Single Person

Moderate Income: 60-80% AMI$70,320 - $93,760: Family of Four$49,225 - $65,630: Single Person

$1,760-$2,345: Family of Four$1,230-$1,640: Single Person

Middle Income: 80-120% AMI$93,760 - $140,640: Family of Four$65,630 - $98,450: Single Person

$2,345-$3,515: Family of Four$1,640-$2,460: Single Person

• <30% AMI• Cashier• Retail Sale• Fast Food Cook

• 30-49% AMI• Home Health Aid • Medical Assistant• Childcare Worker• Bank Teller• Security Guard

Jobs by Median Earnings, One-Person Household• 50-79% AMI

• Dental Assistant• Carpenter• Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerk

• Licensed Practical / Vocational Nurse

• 80-120% AMI• Registered Nurses• Accountants & Auditors• Human Resources Specialists• Computer Programmers

Sources: U.S. Bureauu of Labor Statistics

4+ People

3 People

2 People

1 Person

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

<30% AMI 30-49% AMI 50-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119%AMI

120% AMI+

4+ People 3 People 2 People 1 Person

Renter Households by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.

Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person

4+ Bedrooms

3 Bedrooms

2 Bedroom

0/1 Bedrooms

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


120% AMI+

4+ Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 2 Bedroom 0/1 Bedrooms

Rental Units by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


1 Person

2 People

3 People

4+ People

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


120% AMI+

1 Person 2 People 3 People 4+ People

Owner Households by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.


0/1 Bedrooms

2 Bedroom

3 Bedrooms

4+ Bedrooms

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


120% AMI+

0/1 Bedrooms 2 Bedroom 3 Bedrooms 4+ Bedrooms

Owner Units by Size & Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2016-2018 Avg.

Source: 2016-2018 American Community SurveyNOTE: Assumes one bedroom per person and that households can afford a unit valued at four times their household income

• Renters need to earn at least $49,160 to rent in the County without being cost

burdened

• Owners need to earn at least $25,680 to afford non-mortgage housing costs

• There is a scarcity of rental units renting for prices <50% of AMI & larger units

• 1-2 person owners are more likely to live in units with more bedrooms than people

Housing Cost & Gaps Take-Aways

Questions about housing cost burdens, market trends or gaps?

Forecasting Housing Demand

Housing Demand

Demographic –driven demand

Employment –driven demand

-- Net new jobs & replacements for retirees

-- Regionwide

-- Incorporates typical commutingpatterns

-- Retirees, students& some types of self-employed

-- Main source of growth is retirementof current residents and their aging incommunity

1.5 1.9

1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

020406080

100120140160180200

Average Annual Unmet Demand(Right Axis)

Demand(Left Axis)

Supply*(Left Axis)

Forecast of Housing Demand & Likely Supply*Arlington County, 2015-2045

Source: MWCOG Forecast Round 9.1a; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*The MWCOG forecast is used as a proxy for supply; supply responds to changes in demand but is constrained the pipeline in the short term and the availability of land (including zoning) in the long term

• The Baby Boomer generation will age from being 51-69 years old in 2015 to

being older than 81 years old in 2045.

• The Millennial generation will age from being 16 to 34 years old in 2015 to

being 46 to 64 in 2045.

• The Washington region will continue to have fast growth in low-wage jobs.

Key Trends Through 2045

(8,000) (6,000) (4,000) (2,000)

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,00020

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

3120

3220

3320

3420

3520

3620

3720

3820

3920

4020

4120

4220

4320

4420

45

Total: +75,000

Job Change in Arlington County, 2015-2045

Source: IHS Markit

(150,000)

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,00020

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

3120

3220

3320

3420

3520

3620

3720

3820

3920

4020

4120

4220

4320

4420

45

Total: +927,000

Job Change in the Washington Region, 2015-2045

Source: IHS Markit

- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

ManufacturingInformation

Financial ActivitiesOther Services

ConstructionFederal Govt

Transp., Trade, & UtilitiesState & Local Govt

Leisure & HospitalityEdu. & Health Svcs

Prof. & Business Svcs

20152045

Job Growth in the Washington Region, 2015-2045 (000s)

Source: IHS Markit

30.5%

37.7%

32.1% 30.6%28.1%

21.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

<30% AMI 30-59% AMI 60-79% AMI 80-99% AMI 100-119% AMI 120%+ AMI

Household % Change By Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2020-2045

Total Change = +26.6% (+29,797)

Source: Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU

29.1% 29.8% 30.2% 30.9% 31.3%27.3% 28.0% 28.2% 28.5% 28.6%

52.0% 50.8% 50.4% 49.5% 49.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2015 2025 2030 2040 2045

<60% AMI 60-119% AMI 120+% AMI

Distribution of Households By Area Median IncomeArlington County, 2020 & 2045

Source: MarketStats by ShowingTime

34.5%

43.1%38.5% 36.7%

33.5% 33.7%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%


Household % Change By Area Median Income:Renter Households, Arlington County, 2020-2045

Total Change = +26.6% (All HHs)


16.4%

20.4%17.3% 17.5% 17.0%

12.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%


Household % Change By Area Median Income:Owner Households, Arlington County, 2020-2045



29.3% 28.9% 26.9%

13.8%

28.0%

11.8%

65.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1-Person 2 People 3 People 4+ People <65 65-84 85+

Household % Change By Select Attribute:Arlington County, 2020-2045



Household Size Householder Age

25.7%22.9%

31.9%

12.1%

26.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Multiple Physical Cognitive Ind. Living / Self-Care None

Household % Change By Disability Status:Arlington County, 2020-2045



• The number of households earning less than <30% of AMI is projected to

increase by 4,340, including an increase of 3,720 renters.

• The number of households earning between 30% and 60% of AMI is projected

to increase by 5,790, including 4,960 renters.

• The number households earning between 60% and 80% of AMI is projected to

increase by 4,060, including 3,360 renter households.

Between 2015 & 2045

Questions about housing forecasts or other?

53

What’s Next

January 26,2021 at noonRescreening of Housing Needs Analysis

January 28, 2020 at 6:00 pmVirtual Community MeetingThe Affordable Housing Master Plan at Five Years:A look back on implementation progress

An Expanded Approach to an Equitable, Stable, Adaptive Community

housing.arlingtonva.us

[email protected]

Affordable Housing Master Plan Review

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