a#úFþ' @ w Fþ - CSIDEjaja.cside.ne.jp/kenkyukai/deta/181029.pdf · H H...
21
䠎䠌䠍䠍ᖺ10᭶䠍8᪥ ୡ⏺䛾✐≀ᕷሙ䛾 䛸ᅜෆ㎰ᴗ⏕⏘䛾ㄢ㢟 ㎰ᨻ䝆䝱䞊䝘䝸䝇䝖䛾䛂㣗ᩱᏳಖ䠍䠌䞉䠎䠕䛃◊✲ 䠄ᰴ䠅㈨※䞉㣗⣊ၥ㢟◊✲ᡤ ௦⾲ ᰘ⏣ኵ 䠎䠌䠍䠔ᖺ䠍䠌᭶䠎䠕᪥ 䛿䛨䜑䛻䠖᪥ᮏ䛿㣗⣊⏕⏘ᑠᅜ䠄㣗ᩱ㍺ධᅜ䠅䠙Ỉ䛾㍺ධᅜ 2 せᅜ䛾㣗⣊⏕⏘䠄㻞㻜㻝㻢ᖺ䠅 ฟᡤ䠖㻲㻭㻻㻿㼀㻭㼀 䠄㻝㻜㻜䝖䞁䠅 䠄ⓒே䠅 䠄䝗䝹䠅 ᑠ㯏 䝖䜴䝰䝻䝁䝅 䝁䝯㻔⢄䠅 ㇋ ィ ⏕ங䠄䝖䞁䠅 ∵⫗䠄䝖䞁䠅 ே䠄㻞㻜㻝㻣䠅 ᅜᅵ䠄᪥ᮏẚ䠅 㻳㻰㻼㻔㻞㻜㻝㻣㻕 㻳㻰㻼䠄㡰䠅 ⡿ᅜ 㻢㻞 㻟㻤㻡 㻝㻜 㻝㻝㻣 㻡 㻡 㻣㻠 㻥㻘㻢㻟㻢 㻝㻘㻝㻠㻣 㻟㻞㻡 㻞㻡㻚㻜 㻝 㻝 㻥㻚㻟 㻝 ୰ᅜ 㻝㻟㻞 㻞㻟㻞 㻞㻜㻥 㻝㻞 㻡㻤㻡 㻟㻘㻢㻣㻤 㻣㻜㻜 㻝 㻝 㻘㻟㻤㻢 㻞㻡㻚㻜 㻝 㻝 㻞㻚㻜 㻞 䜲䞁䝗 㻥㻠 㻞㻢 㻝㻡㻥 㻝㻠 㻞 㻞 㻥㻟 㻣㻘㻣㻠㻞 㻥㻜 㻝㻘㻟㻟㻥 㻝㻥㻚㻜 㻞㻚㻢 㻡 䝻䝅䜰 㻣㻟 㻝㻡 㻝 㻟 㻥㻞 㻟㻘㻜㻡㻜 㻝㻢㻞 㻝㻠㻠 㻠㻡㻚㻜 㻝㻚㻡 㻤 䝤䝷䝆䝹 㻣 㻢㻠 㻝㻝 㻥㻢 㻝 㻝 㻣㻤 㻟㻘㻟㻢㻞 㻥㻞㻤 㻞㻜㻥 㻞㻟㻚㻜 㻞㻚㻜 㻤 䜰䝹䝊䞁䝏䞁 㻝㻤 㻠㻜 㻝 㻡㻥 㻝㻝㻤 㻥㻤㻥 㻞㻢㻠 㻠㻠 㻣㻚㻜 㻜㻚㻢 䜹䝘䝎 㻟㻜 㻝㻞 㻢 㻠 㻠 㻤 㻣㻡㻝 㻝㻝㻟 㻟㻢 㻞㻢㻚㻜 㻝㻚㻣 㻥 ᕞ 㻞㻞 㻞 㻞 㻞 㻠 㻣㻣㻞 㻞㻟㻢 㻞㻡 㻞㻜㻚㻜 㻝㻚㻠 㻝㻡 䝣䝷䞁䝇 㻟㻜 㻝㻞 㻠 㻠 㻞 㻞㻘㻠㻠㻤 㻝㻠㻡 㻢㻣 㻝㻚㻡 㻞㻚㻢 㻡 䝗䜲䝒 㻞㻠 㻠 㻞 㻞 㻤 㻟㻘㻞㻢㻣 㻝㻝㻢 㻤㻟 㻜㻚㻥 㻟㻚㻣 㻠 ⱥᅜ 㻝㻠 㻝 㻝 㻠 㻝㻘㻠㻥㻡 㻥㻝 㻢㻢 㻜㻚㻡 㻞㻚㻢 㻡 䝇䝨䜲䞁 㻢 㻠 㻝 㻝 㻜 㻠㻡㻣 㻢㻟 㻠㻢 㻝㻚㻟 㻝㻚㻟 㻝㻜 䜲䝍䝸䜰 㻤 㻣 㻝 㻝 㻝 㻢 㻝㻘㻜㻣㻣 㻣㻥 㻢㻝 㻜㻚㻤 㻝㻚㻥 㻥 ᪥ᮏ 㻝 㻤 㻥 㻣㻟㻥 㻠㻢 㻝㻞㻢 㻝㻚㻜 㻠㻚㻥 㻟 ୡ⏺ 㻣㻠㻥 㻝㻘㻟㻞㻟 㻣㻠㻝 㻟㻟㻡 㻟㻘㻝㻠㻤 㻢㻡㻘㻥㻝㻡 㻢㻘㻡㻥㻣 㻣㻡൨ே 㻝㻚㻠 ൨㼗㼙 㻞 䠓䠕䝗䝹 㻞㻘㻝㻢㻣 㻡㻢 䝙䝳䞊䝆䞊䝷䞁䝗 䠄ᆅ⌫⾲㠃✚䠖㻡㻚㻝൨㼗㼙 㻞 䠋㝣ᆅ㻝㻚㻡൨㼗㼙 㻞 䠋᪥ᮏ㻟㻤㼗㼙 㻞 䠅 䠄㻝㻟㻘 㻝㻠䛿㡑ᅜ䞉䝯䜻䝅䝁䠅 ᪥ ᪥ᮏ䛿㊊䠄Food Problem䠅 䛸㐣(Farm Problem)䛜Ꮡ 䕺᪥ᮏ䛿⣙3000t䛾㣗⣊㍺ධ䛾 ᙧ䛷䚸600൨䡐ᙉ䛾Ỉ䜢㍺ධ 䠄virtual water䠅 1m3䛾Ỉ䠙䠍䝖䞁 㔜䛟䛶Ᏻ䛔Ỉ䛿ᆅᇦ㝈ᐃ㈨※ ㎰ᴗ⏝Ỉ 3䡚4/䡐 ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ 20䡚25 2017ᖺᗘ䛾䜹䝻䝸䞊䝧䞊䝇⮬⤥⋡䛿๓ᖺ 䛻⥆䛝䠏䠔䠂䚹㣗ᩱ⮬⤥ຊᣦ䜒పୗ⥆䛟
Transcript of a#úFþ' @ w Fþ - CSIDEjaja.cside.ne.jp/kenkyukai/deta/181029.pdf · H H...
10 8
2
Food Problem(Farm Problem)
3000 t600
virtual water1m3
3 4 / 20 25
2017
3
ex.
haha
ha
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
6065707580851990 1995 2000 2005 2010 15
1 a/
1 a/
399000040100004030000405000040700004090000411000041300004150000
152000015300001540000155000015600001570000158000015900001600000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1,000ha
4FAO
•– 1970 37 2015 73
1.9– 70 11 2015 25
2.2 1 320–
–11
7 1–
07 30 Bu 13 50 Bu
• 2030– 70 2030 86– 1 320 346–
30 86 346kg
•– 1962 6.48 ha 13 7.0 ha
1 196210.0
– 1.4 3.5 /ha 2.560 70
80 1.5–
• 2030– 2030 02 04
10 7.3 ha 2.9 4 /ha1.1
–
– 3
–
29 7.3 ha
5
1.
2.
6
( CBOT
•
7
8
2018.8.12)
9
OECD-FAO Agricultual Outlook
•3
Bovine meat tPig meat Poultry meat ,
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
-10000
10000
30000
50000
70000
90000
110000
130000
150000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1000
(
2025
• thin market1/
•
10
1Kg
11
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 18
140000
145000
150000
155000
160000
165000
170000
175000
180000
185000
190000
8085 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1000HA
12
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
51,229
43,060
62,144 61,791
CNTV 2015.1.18)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
USDA
13USDA FAO
97000 95000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,000
225000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1,000
44
26,129
15,703
10,826 14,440
13,612 5,850 2,076
9,509
52.1 37.3
19.2
65.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
/100
• 2018/19 2019 652.1 37.3 19.2 65.9
• 4 6 7098 3 104946.2
• 19.2 1 5690 6• 5 1 300 9400
•• 20.1 11.6 33.6 17.0• 20.1 2007/08 17 11
11.6• 3
62,306
85,012
24,241 28,989 20.1
11.6
33.6
17.0
0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
/100
14
•• BSE
• GMO•• -•••NHK 09.9.7
15
2017
2015
20142017
16
16
GMO
17
%
20 7
2025
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000 4,600
5,500 6,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
18
FOOD SAFETY FOOD SECURITY
19
22015
3/15 10
20
91
21
12162
15572
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 17
/60kg
TPP
TPP
WG
2025 11022
• whole total•
•
•
•• 800 t
23
24
2012 12 2013 6 2014 6
2013.12
TPP
10
2013.11 2013.12 2014 .6 2016 11
-
WG
2014.4
2015 3
2015 11.20
2016.11
2016 11
60 2
JA
JAJA
2019 35
80
JA
JA
•
•2014 International Year of Family Farming
25
TPP 1,300 2,100
2013.3 TPP 10 GDP
6.5%
26
27
GATT WTO
•
ex.
28
2010 =1002014 111.3 15 113.6 16 115.1 17 120.6 18 4-6 124.1
• 20168
•
• 3 22
6006.3
•
•
•128 30
3150
•2000
9 247 6
8 23500
3•
•
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
(30.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
197375 1980 85 1990 95 2000 2005 2010 20151718
100
TPP
• 778,400
•9 45
• 38.5 15 9
10 1 482 50 • 7
1 8
• 500 TPP29
• 5
•4.3
3 7.8 17 3 6.44.2 4.2 6 4
4• 6 1 67 8.5
10 8.5 11.9•
30
EU EPA TPP
31
• EU EPATPP
GDP EU EPA TPP
•EU EPA 1,000 TPP 1,500
TPPEU EPA
TPP 21
TBT
SPS
TRIPS
ISD
32
TPP
• TPP TPP
• Ex. ADMGM GM
J.R.• TPP
GM
• TRIPS Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property RightSPS Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and
Phytosanitary Measures ISD Investor State Dispute Settlement
•
33
19
34
•• 1492
• 1800
Ex.
•
2016.11
1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.
JA
35
10
36
6
37
250 ha20 ha
38
53.3 ha
4ha
••
•
•
39
• 2009 340 2020 680• 82 229 3• 18 8000 19
40
3,608 5,160 4,496
5,506
6,117 7,451 7,503
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Food Action Nippon
41
whole)
.
42
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